Do the Twins Have Too Many Starting Pitchers for 2023?

No.

The question will be managing the pipeline given the understanding and reality that the current list of projected starters is still not good enough and will require augmenting  

So, when unfortunately, Correa opts out, and, along with Sano and Sanchez departing, an additional reliable #1 or #2 starter would be a good use of some of the cash (with enough left over for a really good platooning catcher and a couple of solid BP arms. Some of our supposed “starter” depth could be used in the pen (can you imagine a pen of Lopez, Duran, Fulmer, Jax, plus another great FA and two of our excess starters) or break glass in the case of injury role.

Going into ‘23 ideally we would have a starting corp of: FA, Mahle, Gray, Ryan, and Maeda with Winder, Ober and others ready to fill in with the inevitable injuries and poor performance. With the pen described above, that staff would be enviable. 

Don't Bundy and Archer have some kind of option year as well

You have a point Cody, I still don't understand why they took such a high risk on Paddack that with odds that we don't get anything from him. Mets flatly turned down the SD offer on him. Hopefully Mahle might prove himself as a 6+ inning guy thru out the season but I'll have to see it to believe it. Since almost all these SPs would only go 5 innings which should open the door to long relief for some of these guys. If long relief isn't implemented we'll have to try to extend our starters which we'll need to use all of them after losing most of them to the IL & ineffectiveness.

I don't know how soon or ever our prospects will be able to make that jump but long relief is a great way to get their feet wet when that time comes. If they do implement long relief, then there could be a few we could use to upgrade our rotation. as trade bait.

I wasn't sure if this article was a joke or not. If it is, I don't get the punchline. Who can look at this team and say with a straight face; 'this team has a lot of starters'? We don't have pitchers that can get a quality start, we have middle relievers. Just because someone is listed as a starter, does NOT mean that they are a starter...

This was a 'clickbait' article, and it got me!

Nope. Consider that at least, at very least, one will be hurt in Spring Training and out for the year. At least one will simply "not have it" until they are traded to some other team. Suddenly we are short SP's.

Too many? No.

You can also throw Archer into this mix.

Coming into this season the Twins had: Ober, Ryan, Paddock, Bundy, Archer, Gray and Winder with Smeltzer, Sands, Balazovic, Henriquez, Enlow in the wings, as well as Vallimont. Enlow and Vallimont you hoped would make AAA. We figured Sands, Balazovic and maybe Henriquez would see some time in the majors.

We also plugged in Gonzales, Rodriguez and Sanchez, for some odd reason.

And we are sitting here on August 10th with a rotation of JUST five arms and one in the wings (Smeltzer). Most of whom can barely make it throw the fifth.

I never thought the Twins would be where they are, in first place FOR MOST OF THE SEASON.

Especially without a real closer. Now, they got the closer. But they still could use a top-flight A#1 rotation arm...maybe buy one in the off-season.

Yes, 2023 looks wonderful. Ryan, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ober, Paddock, WInder. That is 7 riches. Dobnak and Smeltzer in the wings. 

Varlanmd is up at AAA. MJaybe Woods-Richardson and Canterino will egt some AAA innings to end the season. Then we can say that  MAYBE they will be on board for some starts in 2023, and the rotation consideration in 2024.

But of course we thought these guys would get some starts in 2022, and be in line for a call for fulltime rotation spots in 2023: Balazovic, Henriquez, Sands, Enlow, Strotman. We saw how that has worked out.

Never enough arms. And if you feel you are set, then those probably 2023 "rookies" should've been dangled more as tradebait for a first flight rotation arm who could help next season (Montas). And, as we have seen, the best prospects can be worth zero if they don't produce.

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

What a humorous idea - maybe the question should be do we have too many pitchers for the 4/5 slot - our top three all fit the number three slot and all the names in the list fall short of number 1 and 2 slot arms.  So we are bottom heavy, top deficient.

Agreed. To say the least. The question for FO is making good decisions on who to keep, who to trade or release, and who to sign in the off-season. If we are going into 2023 with the same cast of characters as 2022 we can fairly expect the same results.

I never understood the fascination with Dobnak and why they gave him a pretty good contract extension before he consistently proved himself. 

Twins are in better position with SP next year than the previous 2. 2 years ago needed to bring in 4 SP and last year 3 SP. No need next year to bring in Happ, Shoemaker, Archer, Bundy types, so definitely some improvement. FO has done well developing and acquiring depth in the Twins system, to point they were able to make some trades at deadline to address biggest team weakness. Now, as has been mentioned in posts, need to improve quality. I would like to see Twins use some of their depth to acquire front of rotation starter in off season. Can't have too many quality starting pitchers.

Allow me to summarize.

Hahahahahahaha.

Running down the list:
1. Gray
2. Mahle
3. Ryan
4. Maeda
Those are our (4) MLB caliber starters out of the 5 we need. I don't think we have too much pitching. In bold, the potential opening day rotation and candidates.

Stretch Out Candidate:
*Duran - Yep. That Duran. He wants to start and I could see the Twins stretching him into the role to see how it pans out because he's worth far, far more if he's effective in the rotation.

Injury Replacement Depth Caliber:
*Dobnak - Spot starter, swingman, long reliever talent.
*Smeltzer - Same as Dobnak

Still injured:
*Paddack - It wouldn't be reasonable to "expect" Paddack back before mid-season. He had TJ on 5/11/22. A 12 month timetable is extremely aggressive with 15 months more reasonable and 18 months a possibility. So maybe after All Star break is a better expectation.

Bullpen Destined
*Ober - Long and storied history of injuries and ailments from high school on.
*Winder - Can't pitch more than a couple dozen innings before his shoulder flares up.
*Sands - Without a lot of velocity (throws 90-92) and not a ton of control, Sands has been barreled up well so far this year. Probably better out of the pen, but not a guy I'd want to stick in the rotation.

Question Marks/Prospects
*Canterino - Best case scenario. I think he's likely going to need TJ sooner than later. UCL strain two years in a row.
*Woods-Richardson - He might be able to slot into the rotation and be good, but he's missed an awful lot of time and he's been pretty sporadic in terms of results.
*Varland - I think the Twins are going to want to watch him for a bit at AAA. His stuff was effective "enough" at AA, but I think he's at his limits. Just have to see if he can push past those limits with a little more work.

Low Prospects Living on the Edge of the 40 Man:
*Enlow - He'll need to show improved results to remain a starter candidate, and he IS looking better, but I don't think he's going to get into the MLB rotation next year. He'll need to be stretched out in the minors and he'll be under an innings limit so by the time he's ready for MLB action, he'll be close to that limit.
*Balazovic - Consistently annihilated within 3 innings every outing in AAA. He's a non-prospect at this point.


 

Is this question rhetorical or merely a joke? When in their history have the Twins had too much starting pitching? When was it last when they had four starters who were consistent and capable, let along a couple more who in a pinch they could pop in to fill a hole?

No the twins by all accounts needs at least 6 or 7  in the majors and triple A. But I agree we need at least one or two more guys that can go 6 plus innings. I'm hoping the injured pitchers get better soon.

I will take the counter point and say we have too many pitchers for 2023.  The good news is you didn’t even factor in Archer and Bundy who both deserve to have their options picked up.  So let’s pick up their options and get the winter meetings started.  Who do we trade and for what….. a reliever and Catcher who can hit maybe.  Would the Royals trade Salvador Perez for Archer, Smeltzer, and Ober?  That would certainly help their 2023 rotation.  Can we talk Maeda into becoming a top notch reliever?  Now let’s see how competitive we can be!

Given Mr. Baldelli has a huge tendency to pull  the starter after 4 or 5 innings, I can easily see 2 or 3 of these guys falling into a long relief role. Just as an example, let's say Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda and Paddock are the 5 starters. I can see Ober, Winder and Dobnak all in long relief roles. If you want to switch out Paddock for Winder or Ober, fine but, the premise is the same. This should take some of the pressure off guys like Theilbar, Lopez, Duran and whoever else is in the pen and allow them to pitch just one inning and not be used night after night. 

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

I will take the counter point and say we have too many pitchers for 2023.  The good news is you didn’t even factor in Archer and Bundy who both deserve to have their options picked up.  So let’s pick up their options and get the winter meetings started.  Who do we trade and for what….. a reliever and Catcher who can hit maybe.  Would the Royals trade Salvador Perez for Archer, Smeltzer, and Ober?  That would certainly help their 2023 rotation.  Can we talk Maeda into becoming a top notch reliever?  Now let’s see how competitive we can be!

Archer has 0.4 fWAR this year. Not sure what's impressing you about him. I'm sure Archer is going to opt into his $10MM (mutual) option, though I'd hope the Twins do not.

Bundy is a fair candidate for the Twins to bring back, but only if his results start mirroring his metrics. The long ball is destroying him in much the same way Tyler Duffey was experiencing.

There aren't better $10MM options on the free agency market?

2 hours ago, Swing Batter-Batter said:

Given Mr. Baldelli has a huge tendency to pull  the starter after 4 or 5 innings, I can easily see 2 or 3 of these guys falling into a long relief role. Just as an example, let's say Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda and Paddock are the 5 starters. I can see Ober, Winder and Dobnak all in long relief roles. If you want to switch out Paddock for Winder or Ober, fine but, the premise is the same. This should take some of the pressure off guys like Theilbar, Lopez, Duran and whoever else is in the pen and allow them to pitch just one inning and not be used night after night. 

Archer was used in my trade proposal for Salvador Perez.  

10 hours ago, Avardan said:

LOL no such thing as too much pitching.  Ever.  Well, maybe too much *bad* pitching heh.  The early 1970s Mets and 1990s Braves come to mind.. sure they had enough offense, but it was the pitching that won the day.

And further, I really hope they don't entertain the idea to trade the "excess" starting pitching for some washed up 18-year veteran.

Maybe the 71 Orioles.  But nobody after the first four starters won more than six games.

Too much starting pitching? No.

Some very good starting pitching? Yes.

Some potentially good depth? Yep.

Need to add more? Mmm...debatable.

Let's just get this our of the way first and foremost, there are some health issues that need to get settled. Maeda needs to be 100? Winder needs to get figured out with this re-occurance shoulder issue. Ober needs to get right. It would be nice to see Dobber also get right. In the minors, how about Canterino gets figured out and Enlow just keeps building up the rest of 2022 and at least the first part of 2023. And IMO Balazovic IS STILL a good prospect. You aren't a very good prospect and keep climbing the ladder and are then suddenly dismissed because of one bad year. Is it physical? Is it mental? He's still a prospect until someone happens to prove he's not. No way I'm bailing after 1 yr.

Mahle, Maeda, Gray, and Ryan is a great start and a fine 1-4. Mahle is at the age where stuff and experience meet for potential growth, as I've often stated, and is already good. Ryan is already good, but a rookie, and has room to grow.

Paddack won't be ready until mid season, but is young, looked good in the rotation, and can be the equivalent to a mid year addition.

Winder or Ober would be the 5th starter looking at things today. Smeltzer, and yes, even Dobnak, could provide depth. So could a couple of the kids, though I'm starting to think Canterino is going to the pen. Just thinking his arm might respond better there. Sands? I think he might still stick as a SP, but I'm also seeing real opportunity in the pen.

There is depth, and opportunity for some young arms if we don't have another "bottom falls out" year.

But if WE KNOW you can't just trust health and what's on hand, you know the FO understands as well.

I don't know there's enough to make a trade for a "top of the rotation" starter, even though I like our system still, without starting to "deflate" the system more than the FO, or anyone, wants to see happen.

I could see a FA of at least some significance. And I think someone better than the Shoemaker/Happ type, and probably better than Bundy.

I still don't see a 6-7yr deal for anyone. But they don't have to go that big or long to get someone who is still good to really round things out. Darkhorse? We've been tied twice to Rodon now. A 3yr deal if/when he opts out? Could happen, especially if Correa were to leave. Might even do it if he sticks around considering current payroll and some more $ coming off the books.

Side comments:

1] Ease up on Dobber. He was solid in his 2019 before being thrown to the wolves in the playoffs. Healthy, he's a potential solid depth piece.

2] Ober was good and got better in 2021 and looked good to begin 2022. Don't forget about him.

3] There aren't a lot of SP across the league who consistently go 7 innings. The game has changed. That horse has mostly rode out of town. 5-6 is the new normal with more an "every now and then" occurrence. Its eliminating the 4 IP games that's important.

Twins might have to start trading away some of starters for bullpen help and bench players

Too much pitching? The Twins? You gotta be dry-humping me with this. 

12 hours ago, wsnydes said:

No.

Such.

Thing.

As. 

Too.

Much.

Pitching.

 

The key "Good" pitching not just pitching.

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Question Marks/Prospects
*Canterino - Best case scenario. I think he's likely going to need TJ sooner than later. UCL strain two years in a row.

Bean 5302 nails it, and deserves a TD standing O!

I look at it like they have setup 2023 like this:

Core Starters:  Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda

Competing Starters: Ober, Winder, Paddack, Archer/Bundy/Similar FA Pickup (let's assume one from this group)

AAA Starter Depth: Smeltzer, Sands

AAA Starter Prospects: Balazovic, Enlow, Woods-Richardson

Core Relievers: Alcala, Lopez, Jax, Duran, Thielbar, Megill

Competing Relievers: Moran, Varland, Canterino, Henriquez

Assumptions:

• Twins don't offer Pagan arbitration
• Canterino, Varland, Henriquez are ultimately Jax/Duran-like high leverage bullpen converts
• Maeda returns to quality starter form and Winder is able to stick as a starter

All things being equal and healthy (which obviously won't happen) and absent some major shakeup or FA pitching signing, my ideal looks like the following:

Starters: Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan, Winder

Relievers: Alcala, Lopez, Jax, Duran, Moran, Thielbar, Paddack, Canterino/Varland

None of this factors in the $20 - $50mil in FA spending they will have. If Correa comes back for another year, they spend what they have left to sign Willson Contreras at catcher and then a good bullpen arm (replacing Canterino/Varland for 2023). If Correa does not come back they're probably looking at a short term shortstop, a quality  starter on 2-3 year deal, and ideally still have room to go after Contreras.

None of this factors in any trades they have to make because of lack of 40man space or dealing from other areas of strength (1B/3B/2B) in the system. Too many machinations of how this could play out to be worth typing up here right now, so leaving that alone.

18 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Running down the list:
1. Gray
2. Mahle
3. Ryan
4. Maeda
Those are our (4) MLB caliber starters out of the 5 we need. I don't think we have too much pitching. In bold, the potential opening day rotation and candidates.
 

So you are saying we can expect to the Twins to bring in another couple of Bundy/Archer types again next year?

I'm starting to wonder if the Twins could have too many outfielders.

They have lots of names.  I feel like if the Twins made a 5 man rotation out of the best of these pitchers, and assuming all five were healthy, they would have a below average rotation.

There is definitely some chaff that could be removed from the 40 man.  But the Twins should be looking to add pitchers.