Could The Twins Roll With A Long Reliever?

Dobnak if really finally healthy.  

Would love to see Dobnak in this role - no matter who it is, we can't have a pen full of 1 inning relievers again this year to prevent someone like Pagan being in a high leverage spot because everyone else is used up.

Really happy to see Dobber have a couple good outings after his first appearance of the spring.  Although not a long reliever, am ecstatic with how Alcala has thrown the last couple times out.  Was it 3 K's in one inning yesterday?

Interesting Cody how you have determined that Mr. Ober is a 'certainty to end up in the bullpen.'  Would expect that Bailey would very likely disagree with you.  And he sure has been pitching as well as anyone on the staff.

I find it interesting that we are calling a 3 inning game, with 3 base runners and a run as a hell of a day. If the choice is sending Ober down and having a lesser pitcher up for long relief, the choice is pretty obvious, the answer is Ober. Ober has pitched more innings in the major and has been better than Dobnack. De Leon is a nobody and shouldn't be anything more than a relief pitcher for the Saints and at no time should be taken innings from a prospect.

Another question for Cody you typed - "Rather than putting one of their young arms in an inconsistent role, the Twins could opt for adding a veteran to fill this job "

Is a 30 1/2 year old pitcher with a total of 48 major league innings really a Vet? Cole Sands is 5 years younger and has 17 1/3 less innings and while not good his ERA is almost 3 less?

Whether it is Dobnak or Sands or someone else that is exactly what you want from a long man. Keep the other team in check and give the offense time to try and come back.

Brent Headrick is already on the 40 man and pitched well so far, Ober, Dobs or Varland. I think a long relief pitcher makes some sense. Probably who doesn't make the roster to make that happen would make a difference on yes or no

I want to be a Dobnak fan as I love the guy but the numbers this spring don't give me confidence.  Yes he has a shiny 2.70 ERA this spring but his K9 still is subpar and his WHIP of 1.65 is terrible.  Way too much traffic on the bases when he is pitching.  He has always needed an out pitch and I don't think he has one yet.  He should go to AAA and work on the out pitch.  His command has looked bad at times too.  I think he is going to need more time but we will see how things go the rest of this spring.

I don't trust Sands either.  Way too many HR balls and hard contact when he is pitching.  He has some really nice looking pitches but the lack of consistency is just a killer IMO.

De Leon has looked OK this spring.  He seemed a bit wild the first two times I saw him but right now he has a good K rate and WHIP.  While I don't like any of these options if I had to choose it would be De Leon right now for me.  Unfortunately he is not on the 40 man so unlikely to make it.

Hopefully we get to see Winder soon and he looks good otherwise I am in the camp to use Ober there and piggy back off of someone's start to keep his innings up but his arm seems to good to waste at AAA to me.

"The Twins have played with using a long reliever in the bullpen at times in the last few years and found that the role is inconsistent and sometimes not worth the trouble." **

'19 they used Pineda/ Perez piggy-back and it was great until they both were able to go 5 innings and they dropped long relief. Short relief was over used & blew up, the overused the rotation which drained them & they became ineffective.

'21 was a disaster from the beginning. Twins wanted Dobnak to focus on his new slider. The pitch was too hard on his middle finger which he quickly hung too many & later really did a number on it. They used Dobnak for only mop up or junk job of using him as guinea pig with the new "ghost runner". With Happ & Shoemaker we had ample situations where they had to or should have been pulled early and long relief should have been used. Maeda was used beyond his profile if they had limited his innings & used long relief, he wouldn't have blown out his arm.

'22 we started out with 2 rookies, later Bundy (profiled limited innings) after that Gray (not conditioned) & lastly recuperating Archer (w/ practically no ST). Winder was long relief, he was used sparsely & hardly anything beyond 2 innings. The few times that Winder pitched in this capacity he was very effective.(The last 2 years with our rotation we could keep 2 long RPs busy). As always  Baldelli preference is short relief so again his over-reliance on unproven short relief which demanded more innings from the rotation which caused unduly injuries & ineffectiveness. Because of injuries in early March, Winder was pulled from long relief. Thus ending our brief long relief stint.

'23 Maeda returning from TJ and Ober who needs to be slowly worked into the rotation; is the same Pineda/ Perez scenario so a piggy-back strategy would be ideal. Ober should  be used coming out of the BP in ST, to see how he adapts. When Ober transitions to the rotation, Winder should be able to take over long relief by that time. Any mop up jobs should be delegated to Pagan. I have to admit that this year long relief is less needed but it's still relevant.

** Long relief has been ineffective only when it's not used correctly & inconvenient not because it's not effective but because it's foreign to Baldelli's TB mindset.

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Has Rocco explained what he means by "long reliever?" I think that's a large part of any discussion around who could fill such a role. Does he mean a guy who can come in and finish out a blowout (winning or losing version) by covering 3, 4, or 5 innings? Or does he mean a guy who can come in and throw 2 or 3 innings 3 times in 10 days to give a 1 inning reliever or 2 a day off? That would really change the decision making in my mind.

I don't know that I'd want to put anyone with a truly bright future in the first role. I don't want any of my young guys sitting around for 2 weeks not getting game action because the games have all been close. So if the role is that restrictive I'm going with Dobnak or Sands (sorry, just doesn't look like a real prospect to me). 

To me the "long reliever" they should be looking for is a guy, or 2, who can go 2 or 3 innings 3 times every 10 days to give the 1 inning relievers an extra day off. I expect the arms in this rotation to be able to get through 6 innings more often than not so I'd want 6 one inning relievers, and 2 "long relievers." There will definitely still be times where the starters only go 4 or 5 innings, and the "long relievers" would be who I use to cover an extra inning or 2 before turning it back over to the 1 inning guys. If 6 one inning relievers can't cover the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings every day they're in trouble anyways.

I'd use my "long relievers" in games the starters rack up high pitch counts early, or just don't have it, and can't get through 6. When I use them in the game would depend on where they are in the lineup when the starter comes out. If they're rolling into the top of the order when the starter comes out I'd use a 1 inning guy to get through them. Then turn to the "long reliever" for 2 innings to get me through the tail end of the lineup before turning it back over to the 1 inning guys.

All of this really depends on game situations, etc. But the overall "long reliever" question is more about what that role even looks like. I don't think a guy sitting around waiting for an injury to a starter, or a blowout early, is a good use of a roster spot. To me, "long reliever" is someone I use regularly to give a little extra rest to my big time 1 inning guys. So my search for a "long reliever" would be a combination of finding a 1 inning guy who can go 2 innings or a starter who I want to move to the bullpen. But I don't know what Rocco means when he talks about a long reliever.

I think you nailed it.  Need to decide what TYPE of long reliever we will be going with before we start to ID WHO fits that role.

What has changed such that the same issue that occurred with Dobnak (i.e. sitting for 2 weeks between appearances) does not happen again?

I like having two 2-3 inning guys to allow off days for the 1-inning releivers.

29 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

"The Twins have played with using a long reliever in the bullpen at times in the last few years and found that the role is inconsistent and sometimes not worth the trouble." **

'19 they used Pineda/ Perez piggy-back and it was great until they both were able to go 5 innings and they dropped long relief. Short relief was over used & blew up, the overused the rotation which drained them & they became ineffective.

'21 was a disaster from the beginning. Twins wanted Dobnak to focus on his new slider. The pitch was too hard on his middle finger which he quickly hung too many & later really did a number on it. They used Dobnak for only mop up or junk job of using him as guinea pig with the new "ghost runner". With Happ & Shoemaker we had ample situations where they had to or should have been pulled early and long relief should have been used. Maeda was used beyond his profile if they had limited his innings & used long relief, he wouldn't have blown out his arm.

'22 we started out with 2 rookies, later Bundy (profiled limited innings) after that Gray (not conditioned) & lastly recuperating Archer (w/ practically no ST). Winder was long relief, he was used sparsely & hardly anything beyond 2 innings. The few times that Winder pitched in this capacity he was very effective.(The last 2 years with our rotation we could keep 2 long RPs busy). As always  Baldelli preference is short relief so again his over-reliance on unproven short relief which demanded more innings from the rotation which caused unduly injuries & ineffectiveness. Because of injuries in early March, Winder was pulled from long relief. Thus ending our brief long relief stint.

'23 Maeda returning from TJ and Ober who needs to be slowly worked into the rotation; is the same Pineda/ Perez scenario so a piggy-back strategy would be ideal. Ober should  be used coming out of the BP in ST, to see how he adapts. When Ober transitions to the rotation, Winder should be able to take over long relief by that time. Any mop up jobs should be delegated to Pagan. I have to admit that this year long relief is less needed but it's still relevant.

** Long relief has been ineffective only when it's not used correctly & inconvenient not because it's not effective but because it's foreign to Baldelli's TB mindset.

 

I kind of agree with you and @chpettit19.  They never have really used long relief well since Baldelli has been the manager IMO so kind of surprised it is something they are prioritizing this year.  As @chpettit19mentioned what do they mean by long relief.  If it is a guy just sitting around waiting for a blowout I don't see that as a very effective use of a bullpen arm.

They don't want to do a six man rotation so why not piggy back Ober or Winder with a starter and save most of the pen for an entire game.  It would give consistency to the pitcher in the long relief\piggy back role and give most of the pen the day off.  If there is a blowout then use your two middle relief guys for a couple innings to cover and they get rested up with the piggy back game.

A blowout is generally a loss no matter what but if the Twins have 6 effective pitchers why not use all 6 until an injury says you can't?  Put your best arms on the 26 man to me that means Ober and if Ober they need to keep him stretched out. I think Maeda would be a good piggy back guy as he likely needs some pitch count protection coming back from TJ.

If the Twins are just looking at a 2 inning guy from time to time then I guess the guys above qualify but I guess I don't completely understand the value of a guy that would only go two innings versus 1?  You don't gain all that much IMO and he likely will need more rest before returning as well.  I guess if one of our pitchers happens to go 6 innings and the two inning guy comes in then just need one more arm to close? Is that the theory?

At any rate not sure how this all works but as I said earlier the best arms should be used on the 26 man not at AAA.

29 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Has Rocco explained what he means by "long reliever?" I think that's a large part of any discussion around who could fill such a role. Does he mean a guy who can come in and finish out a blowout (winning or losing version) by covering 3, 4, or 5 innings? Or does he mean a guy who can come in and throw 2 or 3 innings 3 times in 10 days to give a 1 inning reliever or 2 a day off? That would really change the decision making in my mind.

I don't know that I'd want to put anyone with a truly bright future in the first role. I don't want any of my young guys sitting around for 2 weeks not getting game action because the games have all been close. So if the role is that restrictive I'm going with Dobnak or Sands (sorry, just doesn't look like a real prospect to me). 

To me the "long reliever" they should be looking for is a guy, or 2, who can go 2 or 3 innings 3 times every 10 days to give the 1 inning relievers an extra day off. I expect the arms in this rotation to be able to get through 6 innings more often than not so I'd want 6 one inning relievers, and 2 "long relievers." There will definitely still be times where the starters only go 4 or 5 innings, and the "long relievers" would be who I use to cover an extra inning or 2 before turning it back over to the 1 inning guys. If 6 one inning relievers can't cover the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings every day they're in trouble anyways.

I'd use my "long relievers" in games the starters rack up high pitch counts early, or just don't have it, and can't get through 6. When I use them in the game would depend on where they are in the lineup when the starter comes out. If they're rolling into the top of the order when the starter comes out I'd use a 1 inning guy to get through them. Then turn to the "long reliever" for 2 innings to get me through the tail end of the lineup before turning it back over to the 1 inning guys.

All of this really depends on game situations, etc. But the overall "long reliever" question is more about what that role even looks like. I don't think a guy sitting around waiting for an injury to a starter, or a blowout early, is a good use of a roster spot. To me, "long reliever" is someone I use regularly to give a little extra rest to my big time 1 inning guys. So my search for a "long reliever" would be a combination of finding a 1 inning guy who can go 2 innings or a starter who I want to move to the bullpen. But I don't know what Rocco means when he talks about a long reliever.

Exactly what I came here to say. You are describing Mark Guthrie in 1992. Not a mop-up guy whose performance level is unlikely to matter much, but a multi-inning, effective reliever who lets you survive a short start without sacrificing either that game or the whole next week of bullpen effectiveness.

Honestly…it’s probably a couple of guys ‘married’ by the fact that they can both throw 60+ pitches when asked, are on the 40-man, preferably but not necessarily with options, and fit at the bottom of a bullpen.

It’s really a ‘mop up’ role in modern game, IMO. If the game is in the balance, you’re going to mix and match with the unprecedented number of arms in active bullpens (and leveraging the options scam on a day to day basis).

On the other hand, If the game is out of hand…or you’ve somehow managed to burn up everybody despite all the arms and gaming of options…then, you have a guy wear it for the team. That’s the modern ‘long’ guy, (even more so, given additional restrictions on scenarios where Nick Gordon can bail you out).

I could see Dobnak being one…but not until a pitcher goes on the 60-day. I imagine if they did this a line would be drawn somewhere below the guys that they absolutely want to be getting regular starts throughout 2023 for development (i.e., Varland, Headrick). Plenty to pick from.

I think that managing a 13 man pitching staff is tough when the starters only go 5 innings and sometimes less.  I would like to see our starters average 6 innings and sometimes go longer.  Then managing a long reliever on an occasional short start along with the one inning guys would be much easier. We could start by DFAing Pagan and fill his spot with the long guy, Maybe Dobnak, or Winder would be my picks.  Just can't see why they keep holding out hope for Pagan.  Maybe I'm wrong, I even hope so but I just get a sick feeling every time he comes in the game.  Emelio, make me eat my words.  In any case I think it needs to begin with longer starts.  And I think we have the staff to make that happen.  6+ would be my goal.

As others have already mentioned the real question is how Rocco envisions using, or not using, a designated long reliever. A two-inning guy, in my mind, isn't a "long" reliever. But for Rocco, who seems to favor 4 or 5 innings for starters, two innings is probably close to an eternity.

2 hours ago, Dman said:

I kind of agree with you and @chpettit19.  They never have really used long relief well since Baldelli has been the manager IMO so kind of surprised it is something they are prioritizing this year.  As @chpettit19mentioned what do they mean by long relief.  If it is a guy just sitting around waiting for a blowout I don't see that as a very effective use of a bullpen arm.

They don't want to do a six man rotation so why not piggy back Ober or Winder with a starter and save most of the pen for an entire game.  It would give consistency to the pitcher in the long relief\piggy back role and give most of the pen the day off.  If there is a blowout then use your two middle relief guys for a couple innings to cover and they get rested up with the piggy back game.

A blowout is generally a loss no matter what but if the Twins have 6 effective pitchers why not use all 6 until an injury says you can't?  Put your best arms on the 26 man to me that means Ober and if Ober they need to keep him stretched out. I think Maeda would be a good piggy back guy as he likely needs some pitch count protection coming back from TJ.

If the Twins are just looking at a 2 inning guy from time to time then I guess the guys above qualify but I guess I don't completely understand the value of a guy that would only go two innings versus 1?  You don't gain all that much IMO and he likely will need more rest before returning as well.  I guess if one of our pitchers happens to go 6 innings and the two inning guy comes in then just need one more arm to close? Is that the theory?

At any rate not sure how this all works but as I said earlier the best arms should be used on the 26 man not at AAA.

Totally agree to have our best arms out there. Ober will be a waste in AAA. Maeda has good stuff but he doesn't the arm to go long even before he got hurt. Now after TJ he should have a shorter leash. If Maeda has a good night & goes 5 innings maybe Ober can finish the game & save short relief or at least go as far as he can. That can take a lot stress off short relief which will take a lot of stress of the rotation.

A scheduled Ober/ Maeda keeps both in routine & loose

If healthy I take Ober - then it is between Winder or Richardson.  

16 hours ago, roger said:

Interesting Cody how you have determined that Mr. Ober is a 'certainty to end up in the bullpen.'  Would expect that Bailey would very likely disagree with you.  And he sure has been pitching as well as anyone on the staff.

The pitcher the article refers to as a (near) certainty to end up in the bullpen was Sands, not Ober.

If they consider a non-roster pitcher for this role, Jeff Hoffman likely would be in consideration too. He also has been on the starter/reliever line. I remember reading that his minor league deal has opt-outs, which might motivate the Twins to give him a look, although coming late to spring camp also could mean he goes to the minors and waits to opt out at a later date.

15 hours ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Exactly what I came here to say. You are describing Mark Guthrie in 1992. Not a mop-up guy whose performance level is unlikely to matter much, but a multi-inning, effective reliever who lets you survive a short start without sacrificing either that game or the whole next week of bullpen effectiveness.

Mark Guthrie pitched 75 innings in 1992. That is not really much difference than a short reliever pitches. He made 58 appearance so it was not like he was a long reliever very often

Unicorns

Bigfoot

Nuclear fusion for power

Effective long reliever that pitches multiple innings multiple times a week

all do not exist. 

Short relief is max effort in short burst. With a few outliers you will find they pitch up to 70 to 80 innings but 60 innings year in and year out seems like a better limit

Long relief would be someone that needs a starters repertoire or a reliever that can minimize pitches thrown. The latter case would likely be good enough to be in the back end of the bullpen. That leaves someone who could be starting but maybe should only be going through a lineup once. That is usually called your fifth starter. 

2 hours ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

The pitcher the article refers to as a (near) certainty to end up in the bullpen was Sands, not Ober.

If they consider a non-roster pitcher for this role, Jeff Hoffman likely would be in consideration too. He also has been on the starter/reliever line. I remember reading that his minor league deal has opt-outs, which might motivate the Twins to give him a look, although coming late to spring camp also could mean he goes to the minors and waits to opt out at a later date.

Thanks.  Sorry about that Cody, and I had read it twice.  

16 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

The bar to clear for a long reliever isn't particularly high. The thought is that whoever pitches in those spots is coming into games that already have a large difference in score whether they're ahead or behind. We've seen in past years if a starter exits early in a close game, they like to go to traditional relievers to try to keep the game in hand. As I also noted, I think we saw with Dobnak in particular a few years ago that this role doesn't really set them up to slot the long reliever into the rotation immediately if a spot opens up. If the specific scenario for a long reliever doesn't come up for 10 days, they just don't get into any games. I'd bet they'd prefer to put Ober in AAA to throw 5+ innings every 5th day so if he's needed in the majors to start he can seamlessly make that transition.

"Veteran" in this case isn't meant to be based off of De Leon's experience. I mean it to signify a pitcher who is expendable and whose development won't be impacted by a role that could turn out to be inconsistent.  If they struggle, you move on. If they don't pitch for two weeks, that's not valuable time they're missing out on. I can guarantee you they won't put a legitimate prospect in this role.

IMO, if a pitcher that is in a long relief role can't step in a throw 5 innings in a start and maybe a more after a start or two, then that pitcher was never starter material in the first place.

Look at what Winder did last year for example.

If the Twins pitching staff is so good that a almost 28 year Ober is in the minors and the twins can put a throw away pitcher in the majors, this sets up to be one of the best seasons in Twins history at least from the pitching side.