Contemplating Max Kepler's Future

I think he will be back, as he has little value in a trade.  However if he can be in a bigger package for a starter, go for it.  It is evident the Wallner will probably replace him, and left field will be a combination of Laurach, Gordon and Kirlloff.  There is little place for him here except as a 4th outfielder and Buxton replacement in center field. 

Good article, Cody.  Kepler is a sad story--it seems to me the skills are there offensively but he is unable or perhaps unwilling to make any changes to his approach at the plate.  He is a classic "what if" player.  I guess I am ready to move one.  I definitely respect his defensive chops, but you need much more offense out of your corner outfielders than he will ever deliver.  If Wallner wins the spot in the spring, and Kepler is still on the roster, I suppose they could use him as a defensive replacement and part time center fielder to replace Buck.  But, with the lack of a bat, I am not sure he has a lot of value as a pinch hitter.  Finally, I don't think the new shift rules are going to help Kepler all that much, certainly not enough to significantly improve his offensive performance.

Love the guy in the field. Smooth, powerful arm, incredible sense before the ball is hit and what to do. His bat is a liability at this point with so many younger options that we have seen this year in the field. I think this is one ballplayer that would benefit from a different system and probably revive skills he does have. He will not benefit from our coaching staff. A fan favorite, but we need to change out some and add some better pitching consistency and catching improvement. We have other massive outfield individuals that need to be changed out also. Max has been one fun player his first several years, but the last two have really been grinds for the team, the fans and I am sure for Max too. Let him go somewhere not in our division. GO TWINS!

Twins Geezer..........out!

Never a big fan. His offensive skills have deteriorated to the point he's become a liability to the offense. If we are going to value defense at a corner outfield position over offense then there are guys like Celestino that can replace him for much less money. Is that what we really want? I'd say no. Time to trade him for a prospect or include him in a bigger package trade and move on. Unfortunately that is all he is worth.

Auf Wiedersehen!  Max is not a sad story, he played on some good teams and he made a lot of money, but his career has peaked and we need to do better.  I would have been impressed if he had adjusted his batting approach, but since that was not something he could or would do I think we move on.  

He's one of my favorite Twins players on this team, but his offensive slid is just so frustrating to watch.  It's true, we've had SO many injuries and with Buxton always a question mark day to day our outfield has been a mess all season.  Heck, we've been starting Cave, Wallner and Contreras with a healthy dose of Gordon.  Because of that, and the fact that despite his anemic offense Max is a net positive player it would be surprising to see him dealt, but if he was part of a package to bring a Pablo Lopez type of SP to the club I'd be in favor.  I would still want to see him do well with a new club.  

He reminds me a lot of Sano- some early success and a lot of promise, but ultimately disappointment. We'll probably continue to play him next year until it finally dawns on somebody that he hurts the team when he's in the lineup- just like Sano. This year we showed we have young guys who could easily take Sano's place, and I expect to see the same for Kepler next year. We'll probably hide him a lot on the IL while we play more worthy young guys in his place, and he'll completely fade away by the end of the year- just like Sano. I actually do hope I'm wrong and Kep can figure things out. I do think he has more of a chance to do so than Sano, but it doesn't look promising.

He's not THAT bad. He posted a wRC+ of 97 last season and a 95 this season. Combined with his defense that was good for 2.3 and 2.0 fWAR respectively. With the shift rule change, there's a decent probability that the wRC+ goes into triple digits next year. If you look at him as a 4th outfielder/defensive replacement, that's actually pretty good. 

The approx. $7m he's going to make next year is couch change to the likes of the Dodgers/Mets/Yankees. I don't think it's out of the question that one or more of them inquire about a 2 WAR defensive replacement that can fill in during IL stints. 

If they trade him, they're going to need additional outfield depth anyway. Whether or not it happens, there won't be a bad outcome either way. 

 

I would bring him back as he would not bring much in trade. However playing time would be an open competition with Wallner et al and I would also tell him he is the new back up CF whether he likes it or not. This would bring value to the club. 

Kepler will never go down as a great player, but he will be a good player.  He gave us several okay years.  His defense gets overlooked because his offense has never come around to what we hoped he would.  I expect he will be around next year, unless a team really blows us away with a trade.  We have a lot of comp at corner OF, but his defense has high value.  Some think the new anti shift rule will help him, it will not in my opinion, but maybe.  

Have always loved this guy.  Believe that the difficulty he has had with the shifts have affected his hitting more than the numbers.  Likely that he is mentally down after years of not getting many balls thru that infield shift.  Change could be huge, thus, would hate to see him traded and then go back to being the hitter we all expected, you know .260-.270 average with 25 home runs, etc.  Added to his excellent defense, and he would again be a key contributor to a winning team.

Also understand that there are at least three, and probably more, corner outfielders looking for a place to play.  Other than Wallner, all of them need to get healthy before we should plan on their manning either spot.

A lot of decisions may depend on Correa and whether Max stays or goes could be one. If Correa stays, Max may be more likely to be dealt to get back a more valuable pitching asset or just free up capital for a FA reliever or two.  If Correa departs, more cash is available already and Max’s veteran presence may be a bit more valuable.

If he were dealt, what does our outfield look like next year? The most likely candidates: Buxton, Larnach, Kiriloff, Gordon, Wallner, and Celestino. The first three are made of glass, the fourth is a converted IF who probably deserves to play everyday, the fifth has plate upside and a huge arm but reminds me a bit of Delmon trying to catch the ball, and the sixth is strictly a utility player at this point. Is that “contender” capable? Can we even get by with that? 

Max is one of my favourite Twins. Regardless of Correa, I’d probably move him though to redeploy the cash into a shutdown pen as well to focus on ascending players (Max, unfortunately, is more likely descending - another example of a good, young Twin whom we couldn’t get to continue his upward trajectory),

I had a lot hope for Kepler to figure things out this season. Just when you think he's ready to hit the other way, he reverts back into his old ways. I really like Kepler, he's a fantastic defender at RF. But RF is not even close to be as valuable  as CF & I've given up on him . My suggestion is to trade him injuction with some else for someone like Lopez (MIA). I'm sure Buxton would miss him but I think we are at that point.

I really like our options of Celestino & Gordon at CF with Martin could also soon fill in there plus they can play the whole OF. Wallner, Larnach & Kiriloff will be ready on the corners with Garlic & Cave available. We are so much better situated in the OF  as long as I can remember, so I believe Kepler is dispensible.

Kepler still has good trade value because of the remainder of his contract, his defense & the change of the shift ruling will make Kepler much more appealing.

I would consider Kepler as 4th outfielder/2nd CFer for next season and hope to sign a starting caliber RF.  4th OF on this team will play quite a bit.

Pretty hard to replace his defense  ...

We have depth but it's unproven or always injured  , have to concur he stays until someone  takes away his position  , we let Rosario go thinking we had replacements in left field,  leftfield has been a mess since , mostly due to injuries ,,, really though Rosario wasn't the best fielder either so leftfield has been a position of need for a Ling time ...

Keplers defense in rightfield  is the best since Oliva  , cuddyer was almost as good defensively but hit better ...

Who changed keplers plan to hit to the opposite field  , he was working on it earlier in the season  and it was encouraging  but he reverted back to pulling the ball ,,,

Did someone tell him we're not paying you to hit to the opposite field  !!!!

Sadly, the 2009 class of Kepler, Polanco, and Sano may all be gone by the first pitch of 2023. Something went awry. 

If another team puts a higher value on Kepler than our FO and is willing to pay up, then trade him.  But I hope our FO factors in next year's rule changes when they value Kep.  I'm in the camp that Kep will benefit materially.  And not valuing Kepler accordingly risks a sell-low event.

Eat 1/2 of his contract and dump him to the Rays and see what you can get for him, he’s just a placeholder for Wallner and the Twins don’t need this many Lefties manning the corners (I think they should dump Larnach too, Gordon and Kirilloff seem capable enough and he could have some serious trade value). As for OF, I’d acquire Ramon Laureano: a decent hitter and fielder who can play all 3 OF positions. He serves as both a Wallner placeholder and Buxton replacement while being cheaper than Kepler and a righty with more control

59 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Sadly, the 2009 class of Kepler, Polanco, and Sano may all be gone by the first pitch of 2023. Something went awry. 

Yep, that may be possible.  Ideally, we put the right staff and processes in place to get more development and longevity out of the next three: Kiriloff, Larnach, and Jeffers.

If you’re the Pohlads, aren’t you livid?  Someone has to be accountable or is this just another one of those “luck” things. Sorry, this a Kepler thread…..

Maybe Kep sees 2023 as a contract year and steps it up. But I had that hope for Sano this year.

If some other team wants to make a fair trade theyd have to consider- nobody on this roster is untouchable. I just dont see it happening, but you never know. Agree with others Kep's value may be in 4th OF spot, backing up Buck, if only for defense. Assuming they have someone better for RF fulltime.

I really had hoped he would have a great career, so this decline was disappointing.

I'd bring Kepler back next year.  It's the last year of his contract and I think he's earned the right to at least be considered.  If they can buy him out for 1 mil after next season then do it.  I don't see us getting much in return for a Kepler trade.  I'd rather have Kepler than Celestino.  He continually makes base running errors, doesn't know how many outs there are, throws to the wrong base etc.  Correa?  I don't really care if he goes.  But there is no guarantee the team will reinvest his 35 mil elsewhere.  I'm not a Pohlad apologist but they indeed must be livid.  The Twins had a record payroll including the highest paid SS on an AAV.  I would be very upset watching the product on the field.  I have no idea what's going to happen this off season.  But with Falve and Baldelli back next year I expect more of the same: boring baseball, poor fundamentals, and very strange managerial " decisions".  Oh that's right it's that spread sheet again.

6 minutes ago, Game7-91 said:

Maybe Kep sees 2023 as a contract year and steps it up. But I had that hope for Sano this year.

I really had hoped he would have a great career, so this decline was disappointing.

Yes keplers decline since 2019 has been disappointing  , he's had some highlights against Cleveland pitcher bauer  .... 

Hard to replace his defense  , I like it  ...

Would have been nice to have kepler  keep hitting to the opposite field  for a better contribution to the team  , he started to and then reverted back to his old ways pulling the ball , almost like someone told him he wasn't getting paid to hit to the opposite field  ...

The game is all about adjustments but maybe the FO’s plan doesn't call for adjustments  or the twins players are not the most educated on the fundamentals  ...

Sano flopped going for a new contract , he'll get a minor league contract  by someone  , maybe even by the twins  , they did that with cave last year ...

Hopefully kepler plays hard in his final controlled year for a better contract or even raise his trade value ...

There is a buy out at the end of 2023 and a club option for 2024  so if he has value and is traded the club won't have to pay the buy out  ...

You gotta keep him and probably start him since youa re paying him. Hope he starts off 2023 dynamite and then start fielding offers - no matter where youa re in the standings. He would still have a nice option year if he is productive, so could have value to a team. But only if he improves.

I'm assuming thre wasn't alot of interest on Max during the 2022 season. Otherwise the Twins would've been foolishg not to move him, just for the sake of salary.

6 hours ago, Harrison Greeley III said:

He's not THAT bad. He posted a wRC+ of 97 last season and a 95 this season. Combined with his defense that was good for 2.3 and 2.0 fWAR respectively. With the shift rule change, there's a decent probability that the wRC+ goes into triple digits next year. If you look at him as a 4th outfielder/defensive replacement, that's actually pretty good. 

The approx. $7m he's going to make next year is couch change to the likes of the Dodgers/Mets/Yankees. I don't think it's out of the question that one or more of them inquire about a 2 WAR defensive replacement that can fill in during IL stints. 

If they trade him, they're going to need additional outfield depth anyway. Whether or not it happens, there won't be a bad outcome either way. 

 

I've never been a big fan of Kepler but I agree with this. He really would be a good 4th OF/CF replacement.  That's what he is and at age 30 he isn't likely to get better. My concern is that the Twins would still view him as an everyday player rather than giving those ABs to Gordon or Larnach, both of whom are better hitters, and still be unwilling to play him in CF when Buxton is the DH or out. I just wonder if it wouldn't be better for both him and for the team to eliminate that potential misuse and just trade him. BTW, there was an article in the Athletic about increased hits due to the shift ban and they made it sound like a Kepler might get 4-8 more hits a year at most. Based on a 500 AB season at his 3 year average of .220, that's a move from 110 hits to 114 to 118 hits or from .220 to .228 to .236 at best. Let's not forget all of those hits are ground ball singles so the SLG % would not go up and the OPS would hit around .720, and that's supposedly the optimistic side. 

Look, in a perfect world we would keep Kepler and he would get 300 ABs or so as the 4th OF and usual replacement CF when Buxton is the DH or can't go. That's worth the price tag. It's not worth it if he takes playing time away from Gordon or Larnach because they at least have the potential to be so much more than he is. Even worse if AK comes back strong (complete crapshoot)  and playing Kepler takes time away form AK or Miranda because Kepler in RF means AK has to paly 1B and Miranda has nowhere to play. I just question whether this manager will be able to make that switch so on balance I think we should trade him for a prospect and move on.  

Looking at Kepler's career, he has only had one good year. RF has usually been reserved for hitters, not good field no hit guys. In 2019, Kepler led off and hit the pitchers first pitch fastball into the seats. That pretty much is it for his career and the pitchers figured him out. Before that he was a 230 hitter and since he has been a 220 hitter. I think everyone thought he should have been better.Time for him to move over or out and make room for others,

Good defensively, hopefully the change to the shift rules will benefit him as will making some adjustments to his swing.