Black and White be Gone: Five Positives from the 2022 Twins (Part One)

Miranda, Gordon, Ryan and Duran. Just want to see the young kids making it good. Hoping Jeffers, Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis, Wallner, Martin, Brooks, Winder, Varland, SWR, Balazovic will join them shortly as difference makers. Wish they wouldn't have traded away Petty and a few others at the deadline for a futile effort to try to contend this year. A pitcher like Gray didn't put them into the playoffs and probably never will. Meantime trading away a talent like Petty for Grays stop-gap measure will cost the Twins in the future. Let's turn the page. I'm tired of watching the old core flounder through the season and then hear excuses why they weren't quite good enough. We've seen this regime for 6 years and outside of 1 good season in 2019 with a juiced ball which led to a collapse in the playoffs they have produced nothing outside of the young guys we are waiting for. It's time for their draft picks to materialize or move on from them as well.

If we consider “success,” a rookie and utility guy OPSing .750…..we’re in trouble.

If this season wasn’t a failure, failures don’t exist.  It was a clinic in poor roster management, poor decision making, poor execution, poor leadership, poor coaching, poor performance, etc. that led to one of the biggest collapses in the history of baseball.

We’re supposed to feel encouraged about this team’s playoff prospects going forward because a previous #5 overall pick progressed from unplayable to league average?  I just can’t get on board with labeling anyone who disagrees with this ridiculous premise “ignorant.”

"Yet emotions aside, there's an obligation to look at the reality." - And then the article goes on to cherry pick five aspects of the season that were either good (I agree) or overblown. That's not reality - that's blind optimism.

1) Jose Miranda had a solid rookie campaign ... at the plate. However, he's grounded into more double-plays than almost any hitter in baseball and in the field he's not yet what you could call an asset. Did we get a glimpse a fairly promising career? Absolutely. Is he a ROY candidate? Nope.

2) Gray is a solid starter, and I'm glad he's here. But he's a #3 starter on a good team, and that's when he's available. We'll have to see what Petty becomes before we call this trade a win.

3) Gordon is another great story and he's probably my favorite current Twin. But you need your #5 draft picks to produce, and Gordon seems more like a great utility player than a star in the making. 

4) Ryan is maybe the most currently overhyped Twin. He's great against weak opponents, yes. He's also HR-prone, exactly like the scouting reports said. He, too, could be a huge asset to this team as a #4-#5 starter. Sadly, he's being asked to take the #2 slot here.

5) Everything you're saying here has been said about Miguel Sano and Brent Rooker. This team has put a lot of emphasis on slow-speed, two-outcome sluggers. I love that Wallner's getting a chance to play ball at this level, but this team also needs players with speed and defensive chops who can cover OF territory.

But, I will never knock Caleb Thielbar. May he pitch like this until he's 60. Bless him.

Sorry for the cold water on the rest, but as you so elegantly stated, there's an obligation to look at the reality, too. We'll have to see what next year brings to these potentially promising developments.

I don't think the article's point is that there were not any negatives this season. Just that there were a few positives.

"...., (Part One)" implies that there will be a "...(Part Two)." 

I would start that episode with Jhoan Duran. I know they are playing out the string, but last night in the ninth, the White Sox hitters wanted no part of him. 

Or maybe I'm remembering what the White Sox seemed to be thinking in the eighth against Jax. Make him the next guy in your sequel. 

Agree on all 3. 

I would also add, we may have one of the most dangerous relief pitchers in the game in Duran.

Jax emerging as a guy we can count on in the bullpen could also be considered a positive. 

To point #2 though, counting on Maeda or Paddack is a mistake IMO. Basically, the Twins should act as if those 2 don't even exist and if they give you anything the rest of their careers it is a bonus. 

1 hour ago, Beast said:

If we consider “success,” a rookie and utility guy OPSing .750…..we’re in trouble.

If this season wasn’t a failure, failures don’t exist.  It was a clinic in poor roster management, poor decision making, poor execution, poor leadership, poor coaching, poor performance, etc. that led to one of the biggest collapses in the history of baseball.

We’re supposed to feel encouraged about this team’s playoff prospects going forward because a previous #5 overall pick progressed from unplayable to league average?  I just can’t get on board with labeling anyone who disagrees with this ridiculous premise “ignorant.”

287 players in MLB have made 300 PA. That’s as close to 9 per team as I could get. Gordon’s ops of 760 places home at 97.th best. His WAR is 1.9, 117 best If that is failure then most of baseball is a failure. The alternative would be to think Baldelli is a genius for getting that kind of production out of such a failure

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

"Yet emotions aside, there's an obligation to look at the reality." - And then the article goes on to cherry pick five aspects of the season that were either good (I agree) or overblown. That's not reality - that's blind optimism.

1) Jose Miranda had a solid rookie campaign ... at the plate. However, he's grounded into more double-plays than almost any hitter in baseball and in the field he's not yet what you could call an asset. Did we get a glimpse a fairly promising career? Absolutely. Is he a ROY candidate? Nope.

2) Gray is a solid starter, and I'm glad he's here. But he's a #3 starter on a good team, and that's when he's available. We'll have to see what Petty becomes before we call this trade a win.

3) Gordon is another great story and he's probably my favorite current Twin. But you need your #5 draft picks to produce, and Gordon seems more like a great utility player than a star in the making. 

4) Ryan is maybe the most currently overhyped Twin. He's great against weak opponents, yes. He's also HR-prone, exactly like the scouting reports said. He, too, could be a huge asset to this team as a #4-#5 starter. Sadly, he's being asked to take the #2 slot here.

5) Everything you're saying here has been said about Miguel Sano and Brent Rooker. This team has put a lot of emphasis on slow-speed, two-outcome sluggers. I love that Wallner's getting a chance to play ball at this level, but this team also needs players with speed and defensive chops who can cover OF territory.

But, I will never knock Caleb Thielbar. May he pitch like this until he's 60. Bless him.

Sorry for the cold water on the rest, but as you so elegantly stated, there's an obligation to look at the reality, too. We'll have to see what next year brings to these potentially promising developments.

GIDP is like RBI, a stat of opportunity, not skill

52 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Hey look, we aren't supposed to be happy in a celebration thread! 

If we can't be happy that Gordon went from "bust" to slightly above average, I don't know what should make us happy. 

Haven’t you been on this board as long as I have? No, you can never be happy.  Never ever. Find the negative.

Players playing well should make people happy.  People forget that baseball on offense is a game of failure more than success

Agree about Miranda, Gordon and mostly Gray. And maybe Ryan. There were things to be happy about out of context. I was troubled by the fact that two of our late season recalls (out of necessity) had about 100 combined AB's and could barely hit .100. They were complete failures in the lineup. Didn't expect them to lead the team to greatness, but... uh .100 is pretty bad. I don't think Palacios has had a hit since the Clinton Administration.

When Miranda came up, many of us felt he would not last long. the guy stepped up. Garlick and Larnach were major disappointments in important roles. So was Kepler. Sano was a waste.(injuries took their toll) Kirilloff and Buxton injured severely. Kepler and Polanco injured during the stretch run which fizzled like a spent sparkler on 4th of July. Celestino is nothing more than a career minor leaguer who filled a gap by necessity. Jeffers missed a whole lot of the season but has yet to establish himself.

I know this is a 'positives' thread, but its just so hard to ignore why there weren't more. Duran was a huge plus. Jax and Thielbar were also pretty decent. Jury is out on Fulmer. Lopez flunked. Pagan flunked.

Arraez was Arraez. A guy who always put bat on ball and got his share of hits. He pooped out the final month and I suspect he is really playing more hurt than he is letting on. If he wins the batting title...which is still very much a possiblity, that would be a nice plus.

Don't know how to define Correa. From the time he got here, he was always 'out the door'. that got tiresome. Sort of like the Expos...every year the fans were told they were relocating. Never a good look. He did not live up to his 'contract' or hype until very recently. His numbers will look fine. I don't think he hurt the team that much. Everyone knows he is a top talent.

If Twins overtake Chicago, and if they finish at .500...all things considered....those would be plusses for me.

35 minutes ago, old nurse said:

GIDP is like RBI, a stat of opportunity, not skill

Correct. The same guys on here complaining about three true outcomes are complaining about a kid who puts the ball in play ?‍♂️?‍♂️. Yes, the GIDP will and has killed rallies, but a ball in play at least has a chance....

Duran is by far our greatest triump. He was able to transition to BP (no minor task) yet even excel to be one of the game's lights out reliever. Above all this he came from an injury last season to a great season w/o any time on the IL. WOW!

Going years w/o an adequate sub to Buxton (an absent Buxton usually meant a loss) but this season with Celestino & Gordon in CF we always had a chance to win the game. CF is one of the prime positions where defense means a lot.

Correa has given us a good season, Buxton carried the team when he was 100%, Arraez could have easily won the batting title & still could. Lewis set the world on fire while he was around. W/O going into negatives, I really liked our expanded rotation.  We had some prospects that shown a lot of promise with some graduating. 

We had some problems but I really like our Twins.

"....(not to mention the return of Kenta Maeda and Chris Paddock [sic]),......"

I guess we may as well not mention the return of Chris Paddack, as he won't be back until at least August, and maybe not at all next year, so let's give him 1 month in 2022, 1 month in 2023 to be generous, and all of 2024 to be extra optimistic and he doesn't go on the IL all year, and that is what we get for the "3 years of control" that was so valuable. Looks like maybe, if we are lucky, we get a year total, and he actually gets a lot better in his return that he was the last year that he pitched, which was pretty poor in San Diego. Certainly we don't need to think that he will help the rotation in 2023.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/09/central-notes-oneill-paddack-madrigal.html

• "Twins right-hander Chris Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery in May and is now targeting an August 2023 return, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. The surgery usually comes with a 12-18 month recovery window, but this is the second such procedure of Paddack’s career, having previously gone under the knife as a prospect in 2016. Paddack tells Park that the second recovery is going to take a bit longer, meaning the narrow end of the typical recovery window is closed. Since the best-case scenario involves Paddack missing the bulk of next year, the club will have to plan on building a rotation without him."

-from todays email from Do-Hyoung Park

......Among others to return from a second Tommy John surgery, Nathan Eovaldi needed a 21-month recovery before he made it back to a big league mound, Daniel Hudson took 15 months, Jameson Taillon pitched in a regular-season game 20 months after his second and the timeline was ultimately 17 months for Mike Clevinger. A return in August would put Paddack at 15 months.....

Seth's article about the trade that acquired Paddack in April.

"In 2020, he went 4-5 with a 4.73 ERA. In 2021, he was 7-7 with a 5.07 ERA, though as people have pointed out, his FIP was just 3.78. While he throws a lot of strikes, his strikeout rate has dropped from 9.8 to 8.8 to 82 over his three seasons in the big leagues."

And, Mahle wasn't even mentioned in the OP here, but the above quoted Twins Beat email said his plan is just rest. Best of luck with that.

".....the 27-year-old shut down twice due to right shoulder inflammation that Mahle says is due to fatigue, and that he believes will go away with an extended period of time away from the field."

59 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Duran is by far our greatest triump. He was able to transition to BP (no minor task) yet even excel to be one of the game's lights out reliever. Above all this he came from an injury last season to a great season w/o any time on the IL. WOW!

Going years w/o an adequate sub to Buxton (an absent Buxton usually meant a loss) but this season with Celestino & Gordon in CF we always had a chance to win the game. CF is one of the prime positions where defense means a lot.

Correa has given us a good season, Buxton carried the team when he was 100%, Arraez could have easily won the batting title & still could. Lewis set the world on fire while he was around. W/O going into negatives, I really liked our expanded rotation.  We had some prospects that shown a lot of promise with some graduating. 

We had some problems but I really like our Twins.

Easily? Nothing is easy, and Arraez' precipitous fall from .348 is case in point. They did have some positives, though.

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

Easily? Nothing is easy, and Arraez' precipitous fall from .348 is case in point. They did have some positives, though.

.348 was a long ways from his next competitor. To me, Arraez has been playing hurt & tired for almost 2 months which has promoted his steady downward spiral.  I've advocated in that time for him to have more time to rest that would help keep him healthier & stronger to hinder that fall. As well as Polanco & Buxton

4 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

I love that Wallner's getting a chance to play ball at this level, but this team also needs players with speed and defensive chops who can cover OF territory.

Wallner sure needs to improve his defense and he could with a bunch of hard work/ repetitions at fly balls, line drives, hard hit balls, and bloops. He can improve. He does cover a fair amount of ground already but isn't smooth yet.  I'm more concerned that he let his natural strength work with a smoothed out swing path to reduce the strikeouts. Wallner is not slow, at all. In fact, according to the link, Wallner is faster than Royce Lewis. We have already seen Wallner get one infield hit due to his speed.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/sprint_speed?min_season=2022&max_season=2022&position=&team=MIN&min=10

Quote

calling this season a wash would be ignorant.

I had to tune in to see if anyone took the bait and was willing to be called ignorant.  I read all the replies and I think they are a wash.

2 hours ago, h2oface said:

Easily? Nothing is easy, and Arraez' precipitous fall from .348 is case in point. They did have some positives, though.

Arraez is best suited to a utility player type role; he can play 1B, 2B, 3B or DH 4 days a week, 5 max. I don't think he's a everyday type player, he appears to be breaking down a bit late in the season.

Thank you for writing an article based on positives. Too many articles on this site are based on moaning and bitching and looking for someone to blame. Even most of the responses to this article are nothing but complaining. Even I am complaining about all the bitching.

There were a lot of things that were positive. These Twins were picked to finish third in this division this year. They may finish second. They built 80% of a good pitching staff. Ryan, Ober & Winder with perhaps Varland, look like they can be strong solid starters. Miranda and Wallner can add middle of the order bats. Gordan appears to have found himself. Adding three consistent players to the lineup. Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Lopez & Moran & maybe Henriquez can be most of a very good bullpen. If we add back all the guys in the hospital, I think this team wins the division next year. Plus there will be 6-8 guys in the minors creeping up on the major league roster.

I am looking forward to watching this team over the next couple of years, hopefully with the same manager, coaches and front office. At the end of the day, I think this team has a lot of positives going for it.

6 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

point #2 though, counting on Maeda or Paddack is a mistake IMO. Basically, the Twins should act as if those 2 don't even exist and if they give you anything the rest of their careers it is a bonus. 

Add Mahle too…..lol. 

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

.348 was a long ways from his next competitor. To me, Arraez has been playing hurt & tired for almost 2 months which has promoted his steady downward spiral.  I've advocated in that time for him to have more time to rest that would help keep him healthier & stronger to hinder that fall. As well as Polanco & Buxton

He was at ,320 when they sat him for a couple games about a week ago, I think. And he had the. PA to qualify for the batting title. They could have just shut him down. Where is the honor in that? The whole season counts. Regardless. 

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

To me, Arraez has been playing hurt & tired for almost 2 months which has promoted his steady downward spiral.  I've advocated in that time for him to have more time to rest that would help keep him healthier & stronger to hinder that fall. As well as Polanco & Buxton

Rest does not make a player healthier or stronger. If you want a strong player at the end of the season, improve their conditioning. A runner does not finish a marathon by resting, he finishes it by conditioning his body to the length of the race.  

I'm feeling god about the next and future generation of players. So much so that with berrios gone, Sano about to leave...the Twins can make hard decisions on guys like Polanco and Kepler.

I do wish I had better feelings about the bodies of Larnach and Kirilloff going forth, but these guys jsut might be bypassed in the season/s ahead with newer and even more exciting names.

Duran has been a Gem of a find. I think he can be a closer. I still worry about his arm and signing him immedately to a BIG longterm. Maybe they can get a nice 4-6 year contract with their little money offer.

Sad about Paddack missing most of next season, too. Major bummer. This whole season was full of guys getting (deserved) major league roster credit at the expense of staying longer term (or producing) for the Twins. That's one BIG drawback for the year.

9 hours ago, gman said:

Thank you for writing an article based on positives. Too many articles on this site are based on moaning and bitching and looking for someone to blame. Even most of the responses to this article are nothing but complaining. Even I am complaining about all the bitching.

 

I agree with this 100% Everything isn't rainbows and unicorns in Twins land but jeez..

At least we're not White Sox fans! Picked to run away with the division, world series contender..,.to...ouch

1 hour ago, weitz41 said:

At least we're not White Sox fans! Picked to run away with the division, world series contender..,.to...ouch

Favorite line.?

Name a positive for the Twins season? At least we are not the most tortured fan base, well we got that going for us.

My 5 postives -

#1 - Duran

#2 - Ryan

#3 - Thielbar/Jax

#4 - Gordon

#5 - The size of the Twins payroll

10 hours ago, h2oface said:

He was at ,320 when they sat him for a couple games about a week ago, I think. And he had the. PA to qualify for the batting title. They could have just shut him down. Where is the honor in that? The whole season counts. Regardless. 

When you run a race, you run to win. I never suggested shutting him down, that'd be counter productive in this case because we want him to qualify. Just rest him when facing LHPs & when they played him at 2B, of course being aware of his PAs. Hopefully he can still win it, but with much more difficulty.

Yes there are plenty of positives in an otherwise nightmarish season of very poor baseball.  I only hope the team doesn't blame everything on injuries and makes no improvements.