Are You Ready for Emilio Pagan to Work?

Thank you. I'm not sure how many appearances you are expecting from him this year, but I'd like to bet the under, please.

12 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Trevor Rogers is a starter in Miami. Did you mean Taylor Rogers?

Oops the smart people here should pick up on the mistake

Pagan had to many cringe worthy moments that cost games last year. Like Ron Davis decades ago it’s close your eyes time when Pagan enter a close game. 97 mph fastball is excellent but not if it gets hammered frequently. But the team must see something they think they can tweak so we shall see. Spring training will be very important for Pagan. I hope someone passes him by, as that would be a positive sign for the BP. 

19 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO this trade was bad from the start. SD didn't know how to pitch Rogers. Even though he pitched great in the beginning, SD mismanagement eventually caught up to Rogers. Everybody knew that Paddack's arm was ready to fall off & Pagan couldn't close.

Do you actually believe that "everybody knew that Paddack's arm was ready to fall off & Pagan couldn't close" but they still made the trade?  I truly doubt that was the case.  I don't follow the Padres so I have no idea if they mismanaged Rogers.  But based on the "everybody knew" comment, I would have to believe that isn't accurate either.

And to add to this^^^

For all the criticism the Twins management gets they were dialed in on how to use Rogers. That adept usage maximized Taylor's value. 

I'd plan on Pagan being the guy who comes in during the third inning of an early blowout. Maybe a 5th inning of a blowout. But I wouldn't let him see a 6th or later inning during any game the Twins were within 3 runs of winning.

I'd be really interested to know how many times Pagan's sinker got hammered and how many times it was his fastball but with a few mph taken off it (some of the pitch trackers sure seem to struggle IDing which is which). Without having all of the Twins internal stats and tracking it'd be hard to know for sure, but I wasn't clear whether he was lobbing over the blah "sinker" or trying to dial back his fastball to get a strike when he started getting into trouble. If it was pretty much always the sinker, then you can start fixing some of that by eliminating the bad pitch. If a big part of the issue is whether or not he can control the fastball enough to throw it for strikes and he eases up on the velocity when he gets behind in the count and doesn't want to walk another guy...that's harder to fix.

He did seem to do better with the curve than the slider, but it's a pretty small sample size. He's got good stuff, but he needs to be able to find the strike zone more consistently.

I'm rooting for him, like I do for all Twins, but I would not have have kept him. I think they could have found a veteran righty for roughly the same cost with a better track record and less need of "fixing", and it sounds like they could have gotten at least a C prospect for Pagan, so I would have moved on. Especially considering just how much damage he's done to the psyche of the fans. There's a real chance that the Twins are stuck in a sunk cost fallacy with Pagan and will give him too many chances in an effort to prove that they were right about him all along.

Hope I'm wrong. relievers are volatile enough I could be very wrong, and at least there's evidence of actual changes happening not just "he's in the best shape of his life" or other Spring Training nonsense. But he really makes me twitch.

23 minutes ago, gman said:

I'd plan on Pagan being the guy who comes in during the third inning of an early blowout. Maybe a 5th inning of a blowout. But I wouldn't let him see a 6th or later inning during any game the Twins were within 3 runs of winning.

I hope you're right - thats the only spot I see for Pagan on this team who wants to contend.  He can be the pitcher when you wish you could send Austidillo in there again.  Unfortunately, when you don't let starters go thru the line-up more than 3 times, and you have a pen full of 1-inning guys, there comes a time when a Pagan needs to be in high leverage situations - That is why I don't want him on this roster.  I believe it is a mistake to bring him back.

21 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

We shall see about our bullpen - there are plenty of questions and not just about Pagan:

Is Lopez really going to be a reliable high leverage option (personally, I think this is the biggest risk - not Pagan)?

When and will Alcala reach dependability?

Was poor Jax just overused, or was his later in the season decline a harbinger that the league was figuring him out?

Thielbar is a solid lefty, but is another year older an issue?

Will Moran continue his solid trajectory as a reliable, improving 25 year old option?

Can Megill improve upon his 2022 campaign?

Our bullpen looks as solid as any in recent years. No doubt. But bullpens can be fleeting, fickle things and this year it won’t just be Pagan’s performance that will make or break the bullpen’s season. In fact, a rebound from Pagan could be huge if some of the questions above don’t to turn out to be favourably answered.

 

Agreed on the López v. Pagan….both???? Can’t believe I’m saying Pagan seems to have more probability for success based on history.

Thielbar is a concern just because one gets to the end eventually…….hope he’s somewhere near ‘22!

Moran seems like a guy developing normally and gaining command & experience along the way. Looking for him to become a regular use guy up around 60-70 innings.

Megill - if he develops a 3rd pitch for show he’s got the stuff with his curve & fastball to be a core guy every 2-3 days.

I think Jax is solid and any drift over the year is normal up & down on the mound.

Duran - hope for health - he should be good.

That's 3.5 million buckaroos we could have used towards a free agent reliever ... 😒

By all reports, Pagan is a good guy and a good teammate. By all reports, he's had basically one good season and that was 3 or 4  years ago. I understand the temptation he offers with velocity and SO ability. But striking out 4 in 2 IP but allowing a 2 or 3R HR doesn't make it all right.

And new pitch or not, pitching in lower pressure situations should make any relievers numbers look better. I will root for him and hope for the best. But if there was actually interest in him, I would have grabbed what I could, saved his $3.5M, and applied a little more to that figure and signed a FA that I felt good about and had either a better history or a more solid base to expect positive progression from.

19 hours ago, LeatherAntenna said:

Let me see if I understand this.  He will work in low leverage situations until you trust him in high leverage situations.  Then you put him in high leverage situations and he blows them.  Put him in high right away.  Why not find that out he will melt down early in the season when games and the standings are a little less important?

So, so many things wrong with this comment:

1) He is a person, not a robot. Things like self-confidence and trust come into play.  Imagine you were Pagan and you jumped on to TD to see the comments about you.  How would you feel?  Let him work into his confidence.  Pitchers can and do improve over time.

2) There may be a hundred factors that went into his performance last year that the general public knows nothing about.  Those factors could have changed, allowing him to better focus on pitching.  We, the general public, know nothing about him as a person. 

3)  Saying the games early in the season are less important speaks to ignorance.  Every game matters.  Early games are insanely important.  Look at studies done on standings 30-40 games in vs the end of the season.  The numbers are something like if you are more than 5 games out after 40 games, your chances of making the postseason are very low.

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

So, so many things wrong with this comment:

1) He is a person, not a robot. Things like self-confidence and trust come into play.  Imagine you were Pagan and you jumped on to TD to see the comments about you.  How would you feel?  Let him work into his confidence.  Pitchers can and do improve over time.

2) There may be a hundred factors that went into his performance last year that the general public knows nothing about.  Those factors could have changed, allowing him to better focus on pitching.  We, the general public, know nothing about him as a person. 

3)  Saying the games early in the season are less important speaks to ignorance.  Every game matters.  Early games are insanely important.  Look at studies done on standings 30-40 games in vs the end of the season.  The numbers are something like if you are more than 5 games out after 40 games, your chances of making the postseason are very low.

I cannot believe that you dare to use common sense and logic.  That is not the Twins Daily way to contribute.  Shame on you!!! 😁

I take issue with the idea that Pagan was a polarizing figure. I believe the revulsion was universal.

5 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Do you actually believe that "everybody knew that Paddack's arm was ready to fall off & Pagan couldn't close" but they still made the trade?  I truly doubt that was the case.  I don't follow the Padres so I have no idea if they mismanaged Rogers.  But based on the "everybody knew" comment, I would have to believe that isn't accurate either.

SD had Pagan & Paddack out there for a long time waiting for someone to bite, no one did. NYM who are notorious for taking a chance on risky arms looked into them & passed. Even considering the possible down time of Paddack they deemed it not worth it. This to me was a red flag.

People often say stats are everything. Pagan's recent stats showed that he was terrible in any possible closing position and Duffy's downward trend showed that they should not be depended upon to close. It was very foolhardy to give up a proven back end RP to depend on these 2. Even if they had a hunch that they could correct them, they shouldn't left themselves this vulnerable.

Most Twins fans are familiar with Rogers not being a classic closer. That he's not able to pitch back to back games while being effective. SD pitched Rodgers in back to back games on a constant basis. I am amazed that Rogers lasted as long as he did. Most teams value Rogers, that's why he got the contract that he did & others did not.

I admit that I exaggerated when I said "everyone" because evidently you & the Twins did not.

I’ll be the loyal opposition voice and say I think Pagan is going to have a good year.

Pagan's time with TB wasn't a "breakout," it was an anomaly. Time to let that one go....

His BB rate during his "turnaround," moved up into May/June territory. Unless we're supposed to believe he'll hold opponents to a mid 500s OPS for the year, the sample in question is the same situation as those early season tightrope acts, i.e. a time bomb waiting to explode. 

4 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

So, so many things wrong with this comment:

1) He is a person, not a robot. Things like self-confidence and trust come into play.  Imagine you were Pagan and you jumped on to TD to see the comments about you.  How would you feel?  Let him work into his confidence.  Pitchers can and do improve over time.
 

To a point, and then that curve trends downward. Pagan is going to be 32 this season, and he's been abysmal for the last 3 seasons. I agree that the logic of throwing away early season games is "wrong," but expecting, or even hoping for, a vastly different outcome this year seems like a similarly "wrong," bet. 

18 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

To a point, and then that curve trends downward. Pagan is going to be 32 this season, and he's been abysmal for the last 3 seasons. I agree that the logic of throwing away early season games is "wrong," but expecting, or even hoping for, a vastly different outcome this year seems like a similarly "wrong," bet. 

In a bubble, I agree.  But we don't know what we don't know.

It will be very interesting to see what role they have him pegged for when the season starts:  Low leverage middle relief (where his impact on the game will be minimal) or higher leverage spots.  My bet is on the former with the hope he can find his mojo. 

Barring another barrage of injuries I have a hard time seeing the Twins putting him into any high leverage situations until he shows he is ready (like 25-30 innings of killer pitching).

As an aside:

The fact that we are having this type of conversation about the usage of our #8 reliever should tell us how little usage questions there are about the team this year.  

Polarizing? No, he wasn't. On Pagan, everyone was on the same pole. 

17 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

3)  Saying the games early in the season are less important speaks to ignorance.  Every game matters.  Early games are insanely important.  Look at studies done on standings 30-40 games in vs the end of the season.  The numbers are something like if you are more than 5 games out after 40 games, your chances of making the postseason are very low.

You speak truth here, this reminds me of 2021 when Toronto missed a Wild Card by 1 game, losing a game or games in April that were winnable can come back to bite a team in September/October in a close race. I'm not sure where the idea that early games are less important than late season games came from but it's absolutely false.

I think that by far the most volatile segment of our team is the bullpen.  And by using the word volatile, I mean that it could go either way.  We have several relievers that show good stuff, including Pagan.  And I'm ok with giving him a shot early.  If things go south you have to DFA him.  But with the possibility of his results being average to very good, you take a chance.  Agree on the short leash.  But, you could say the same thing about most of the pen.  Talent-wise this could end up being one of the best pens in the league.  But we have to be able to adjust according to results.  I hope Pagan makes us all eat crow by seasons end.  But if he's bad, let him try his luck with another team.

4 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

In a bubble, I agree.  But we don't know what we don't know.

Isn't "anything can happen," essentially the same logic you were criticizing?

4 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

As an aside:

The fact that we are having this type of conversation about the usage of our #8 reliever should tell us how little usage questions there are about the team this year.  

This team finished 78-84, good for 3rd place in the worst division in baseball, and they're running it back with mostly the same roster. There are plenty of questions. 

17 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Isn't "anything can happen," essentially the same logic you were criticizing?

Ummm..... no. That isn't what I was saying.  What I was saying is that we don't know what potential causes were or what potential adjustments have been done to make him potentially pitch better.  We don't know what we don't know.

 

19 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

This team finished 78-84, good for 3rd place in the worst division in baseball, and they're running it back with mostly the same roster. There are plenty of questions. 

Again... no.  I am not going to quote the hundreds and hundreds of posts and articles talking about the roster changes this team has made (C, 1B, 3B, LF, 4th OF, at least 2 SP), the expected returns of an insane number DL players from last year, nor the fact that they have not made any more moves to acquire BP pitchers.

The roles are pretty much set.  The team on the field will look vastly different from the team that was until 9/1 basically in the running for a division title.  Now they just need to play the games. 

22 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

I’ll be the loyal opposition voice and say I think Pagan is going to have a good year.

I like your style.

21 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

As an aside:

The fact that we are having this type of conversation about the usage of our #8 reliever should tell us how little usage questions there are about the team this year.  

The fear is, of course, that the Twins don't see him as the 7th/8th guy in the bullpen but instead as more like the 4th/5th guy. Which is the sort of aggro that makes us not want him on the team at all.

But you are absolutely correct in that there are a lot fewer of those "who's going to do X or Y" on this team this season. The questions are much more around "can X get/stay healthy?" or "can Y improve on last season". the roles are fairly well set, unless there a significant injury or major underperformance in camp.

10 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Ummm..... no. That isn't what I was saying.  What I was saying is that we don't know what potential causes were or what potential adjustments have been done to make him potentially pitch better.  We don't know what we don't know.

 

Again... no.  I am not going to quote the hundreds and hundreds of posts and articles talking about the roster changes this team has made (C, 1B, 3B, LF, 4th OF, at least 2 SP), the expected returns of an insane number DL players from last year, nor the fact that they have not made any more moves to acquire BP pitchers.

The roles are pretty much set.  The team on the field will look vastly different from the team that was until 9/1 basically in the running for a division title.  Now they just need to play the games. 

Right, which is to say that Pagan could turn things around based on these adjustments, or resolution to whatever outside causes you want to speculate on, despite his awful track record and age, correct? Again, "you never know," is being applied in the face of statistical unlikelihood in both cases.

Every team has roles "set," entering the season, that doesn't really mean anything. Miranda played a majority of last year, he isn't a roster change, but if you want to talk about him at 3B specifically, his defensive fit certainly could be considered a question mark. Kirilloff's wrist isn't a question mark? Gallo isn't a question mark after his abysmal 2022 season? Who is your 2nd SP acquired? Taylor's bat isn't a question mark if he's getting extended playing time as Buxton insurance? You're going to mention all the injuries, but those aren't question marks this season!? Mahle, Ober, and Winder are health locks? Maeda and Alcala won't miss a beat post elbow procedures? Jorge Lopez's absolute meltdown in a Twins uniform was just a blip? Pagan has been beaten to death. An offense that was inconsistent or non existent at times, and lost one of its most reliable/best bats, will be better despite the only clear upgrade coming at C? I mean c'mon, these are just off the top of my head. 

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Right, which is to say that Pagan could turn things around based on these adjustments, or resolution to whatever outside causes you want to speculate on, despite his awful track record and age, correct? Again, "you never know," is being applied in the face of statistical unlikelihood in both cases.

Every team has roles "set," entering the season, that doesn't really mean anything. Miranda played a majority of last year, he isn't a roster change, but if you want to talk about him at 3B specifically, his defensive fit certainly could be considered a question mark. Kirilloff's wrist isn't a question mark? Gallo isn't a question mark after his abysmal 2022 season? Who is your 2nd SP acquired? Taylor's bat isn't a question mark if he's getting extended playing time as Buxton insurance? You're going to mention all the injuries, but those aren't question marks this season!? Mahle, Ober, and Winder are health locks? Maeda and Alcala won't miss a beat post elbow procedures? Jorge Lopez's absolute meltdown in a Twins uniform was just a blip? Pagan has been beaten to death. An offense that was inconsistent or non existent at times, and lost one of its most reliable/best bats, will be better despite the only clear upgrade coming at C? I mean c'mon, these are just off the top of my head. 

You are arguing points that really don't fit what I am saying and changing tacks in what you are defending.  Read the post immediately over yours from JMlease1 to understand the point I am trying to make.

Bottom line is that putting Pagan in a low leverage middle relief role as the Twins try to fix him will have a very small impact on the game outcomes.  On the chance they are able to fix him, he could be a valuable piece.  If not, expect the team to move on from him.  High upside, low bottom.