An Early Look Back on the Chris Paddack Trade

One absolutely can’t be faulted for questioning the Twins thought process in completing this trade. I also see Paddack as a potentially strong contributor after he rehabs, but it makes me wonder if Falvey and Levine used a big chunk of hope and prayer when they pulled the trigger, given the injury history. I would have liked to be a fly on the wall when they were discussing his medical charts and plasma injection procedure of last September. What guided them to be as positive as they were about his chances to remain injury-free?

15/16 saves, an ERA of 0.52 and a WHIP of 0.63.  
 

Hey, you win some and you lose some. This one we lost. It’ll be ok.

My first take was, this sucks! But once Paddock started pitching and then realizing Tingler has a history with both pitchers, knows their character, personalities, work ethic etc, it seemed like a much better deal. Even at this point, with Paddock out, I'm good with this deal. Rogers would be gone at the end of the year.  Party on dudes

If it's ok to say this trade was bad, then I will. This trade was bad. VERY BAD.

Everyone is so focused on “contend” in 2022.  I truly believe they didn’t and do not believe they are championship team in 2022.  The push was for 2023.  Being competitive in 2022 with a eye on who can contributed and a piece moving forward.  
 

with Rogers only on the roster for 2022 he doesn’t help you in 2023.  
 

would having Rogers make us a better team now, yes.  Would it elevate your feeling of being a contender this yr?  For me it’s no!

great to have a competitive team and roster this summer but no illusions of us this fall.  If we can make it there

I don't know why everyone thinks this trade was so bad. Rogers had plenty of questions coming into this year as well.  Is it as good as before Paddock was injured, No.  Would it have been a good thing to have Rogers in the bullpen for this year, yes.  Let's face it, Rogers was not going to be on the Roster after this year.  This was a trade made with a longer term plan.  The only thing I didn't understand is why the Twins agreed to basically pay for Rogers salary this season, but that is also the cost of getting a starting arm with upside in the MLB.  This trade truly can't be judged until we see what Paddack can do after the surgery.  Sure, if he misses most of next year as well, it will not look near as good but it could also look a whole lot better as we look back on it.

While I think short term this trade hurts the Twins chances of making the playoffs or contending, long term it's going to be fine. If Paddock comes back fully healthy this trade is a total win, I get trying to keep him healthy and pitch this season, but I would have sent him for TJ immediately post trade. Rehab and rehabilitation never works. 

While I agree this is/was a bad short-term trade, this is the type of trade teams like the Rays make all the time.  Trading good players with limited control, for other players with more.

Is there any indication the Twins would have extended Rogers?  If not, while it sucks for this year, it's the type of trade you make to extend your competitive window (even if it slightly closes it on the current year)

Luis Gil trade kind of the opposite of Paddack trade, in my opinion it was better for the Yanks. Well, he is also having TJ surgery. Trade for any pitcher and you take that risk I guess.

9 minutes ago, Macneil4025 said:

While I think short term this trade hurts the Twins chances of making the playoffs or contending, long term it's going to be fine. If Paddock comes back fully healthy this trade is a total win, I get trying to keep him healthy and pitch this season, but I would have sent him for TJ immediately post trade. Rehab and rehabilitation never works. 

That is a big "If" and this is his second TJ surgery so I wouldn't call the trade a win in any scenario, unless the third player they received Brayan Medina turns into the next Johan Santana. Pagan is a shaky reliever at best and losing Paddack makes this a big L. 

It was definitely tough to give away Rodgers, and with Paddack out for the year and Pagan intent on pushing everyone's blood pressure through the roof, for 2022 this trade is a lose. I won't close the book on 2023 though, especially since it was unlikely the team was going to re-sign Rodgers.

One more thing to note: the Mets had a somewhat similar deal in place, and axed it after seeing Paddack's medicals. That fact cannot be ignored, because Falvine knew his arm was sketchy and took a massive risk anyway. I don't honestly believe they fully intended 2022 to be a balls-to-the-wall year to compete, but didn't want to admit only pushing a few chips into the middle of the table because of the backlash.

20 minutes ago, Twinfan603 said:

 

One more thing to note: the Mets had a somewhat similar deal in place, and axed it after seeing Paddack's medicals. 

Details are linked below for anyone wanting more info. 
 

https://clutchpoints.com/rumor-the-real-reason-mets-failed-to-trade-for-padres-eric-hosmer-before-start-of-2022-season/amp/

A big part of those in favor of the trade with San Diego focused on the future 2-5 years down the road and some were having positive thoughts about next year. The old argument of assets, etc.

Some (transparency includes me) argued that Rogers held more value right now and as a trade chip should the Twins crash towards 100 losses in 2022. An expiring contract doesn't need to mean the end but many people felt Rogers was done as a Twin after this year.

This has been covered repeatedly on other posts. The Twins gambled ... so it goes. Now Pagan has become the $11 million man and the PTBNL (Pena) gets an asterisk as the potential future savior  of this trade. Life goes on. No worries.

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

I don't like this FO, think they are in over their heads. That said, while I think we lost this trade, it's an ok trade. We got a controllable starter and a few other pieces for a bullpen arm that would be gone at the end of the year and Rooker. It's a good return. I was also a bit lower on Rogers than others, thinking his best days were behind him. Better to trade him too soon rather than too late.

You can question the trade all you want.....but the FO being in over their heads?  Joe Ryan for 1/2 season of Nelson Cruz?  Signing Correa?  Dumping Donaldson for Sanchez and Urshela?  I think the FO is doing just fine.....they made the trade....they took a shot and in the present time, it's a loss, but I like the fact that they went for it.  

FO said we are in a win now mode, I'm all in with that, we have the core to do that. But we traded away our only legit closer (that's paying big dididends for SD) for a broken pitcher and a iffy reliever. Both of these pitchers could eventually work out but when? we need them now not 2 or 3 yrs. down the line if ever. I was against this trade from the beginning and for extending Taylor. 

What hope is there that he will contribute in 2023 or 2024? Apart from his rookie campaign in 2019 he's been terrible. That's what I never understood about this trade. He just isn't that good, and he had a known issue with his elbow. What was the Twins front office thinking?

We can judge this trade on the success of our bullpen in the 2022 playoffs. Another factor in assessing this trade is the cost of any prospects traded to bolster the bullpen at the deadline.

They gambled their best bullpen arm in the only season they are guaranteed to have Correa for a pitcher with a history of arm trouble and little success since 2019. Three years gave them a good shot of winning the trade in paper. I would trade that paper win for a run with Correa in 2022 playoffs. I was very disappointed with the trade at the time.

5 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

What hope is there that he will contribute in 2023 or 2024? Apart from his rookie campaign in 2019 he's been terrible. That's what I never understood about this trade. He just isn't that good, and he had a known issue with his elbow. What was the Twins front office thinking?

I think it is a fair question to wonder whether it is worth tendering Paddack. There are very few successful second Tommy John surgeries and look at the time between games for Eovaldi or Capuano or Clevinger or Rasmussen. I think those are the 4 success stories amidst forty some according to the Post. Did any return in less than 16 months? Eovaldi was August 10, 2016 to May 30, 2018. Capuano missed 2 years. Rasmussen had surgery in September 2017 and returned April 2019. Clevinger was September of 2020 and returned this month. It is unreasonable to expect more than one year of Paddack and by then it will be 5 years since his last good season. Is that any different than the usual fliers like Bundy and Archer? They shouldn’t look at him as any different then those two and I am not sure that is worth the cost of a 40 man spot the two off seasons and arb salaries.

A lot depends on whether Pagan irons out his histrionics and settles down to give good weight. If so, we have him now and both next year. FO have faith in the farm. This is a country built on farms, so I’m content to see how things develop.

So we've got a guy who's having Tommy John surgery for the second time out for this year and probably for a good chunk of next year.  And we gave up our only proven closer who's having a career year, leading the league in saves with a minuscule .52 era in order to possibly realize the possibility that Paddack might possibly contribute something in 2024.  And we're paying his full salary to boot.   Even with Pagan thrown in, how could anyone put a positive spin on this? 

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

I'm not against taking a risk, but it needed to be on an arm with bigger upside than Chris Paddack.

I think in the excitement of flipping a reliever for a SP with 3 years of control, the question of "what are you really getting?" kind of fell by the wayside. I agree with the general rule that says you make that move nearly every time, but context matters, as we've unfortunately found out. 

I originally thought the trade was a mixed bag - it was a fine return for Rogers (and Rooker, but he has zero value to me so it's really just Rogers), and it seemed like Paddack was going to rebound from his 2020 and 2021 seasons, and we definitely needed another starting pitcher. I didn't go into the positive range because it made our questionable bullpen even more shaky. 

And now it just looks like a bad trade. Getting so little out of Paddack in 2022 and 2023 irrevocably ruins the trade for me. We gave San Diego one year of one of the best relievers in baseball, and now all we've got is Pagan (whose peripherals suggest that he'll be sharply regressing sooner than later) and Brayan Medina, a 19 year old pitcher who is several years away from debuting, which I'd consider a lottery ticket. That's simply a bad trade for a team that is looking to be in playoff contention.

All that being said, the bullpen has overachieved thus far, and it's absolutely possible to add help to the bullpen. Maybe Alcala will return and finally become the reliever we've hoped he could be. But we can't go into another playoff series with the pitching staff being duct taped together and having to convince ourselves that they have what it takes to go on a run when they never had a chance (looking at you, 2019 Twins). A single bad trade doesn't have to loom over the season if they don't let it.

Well we could sign Paddack to an inexpensive extension after we see how his recovery is going.  Maybe next year at 1 million the following season at 2 or 3 million with an option for 5 million give or take.  Nice cost control move.  We get Pagan for 2 seasons.  I think this trade is ok.  It would be better if we had another month or two before the injury but we did get to see our pitching get off to a great start and see that we have lots of depth before the injury.  I don’t think we lost this deal or if so not by much.  Remember closers aren’t as valuable as a stopper who comes in at the most important moment to pitch like Duran ….