4 Starting Pitchers the Twins Could Potentially Trade for at the Deadline

With our payroll where it's at now, I suspect the large co tract trades are out of the question. I think the Twins may target someone like Gray or Archer, or a decent pitcher with a salary under 10 million or with less than 5 million remaining for the season unless Rosario was included to offset a higher salary.

Thanks for raising this discussion. Unfortunately your top 4 do not make my top 4, primarily because the combinations of downside; Age, salary, injury & trading price that`d be asked. At the deadline we`d need a proven starter, of the ones you mentioned I like  Kyle Freeland the most, he has great potential & he`s LH (plus I like Colorado pitching for some reason). Like Pineda he had great potential which the Twins saw & took a calculated chance. For Freeland I`d prefer to trade right away & work w/ him before he has proven himself. Here Colorado might not be willing to do because they still think that they have a shot. Coming to the end of the deadline & Colorado discover they don`t have a shot, hopefully we could have wide choice of Colorado pitching. I also like Ray @ AR, which has been mention. But my preference is trading  NOW w/ teams that know they won`t be contending & there are many options & some might be willing to trade for lesser value ML proven players. My favorite which might not be the best is Archer@PIT, he was not able to hit his peak w/ PIT, he has great potential & I believe Wes Johnson could unharness that potential. I also like Chris Statton@PIT. He could be an impact pitcher this year both won`t cost much as far as prospects go. More proven pitchers are available which would cost more in prospect. Cubs farm is depleted they might have & motivated to trade a pitcher that we might like for prospects

Is Berrios healthy?

Is Pineda the pitcher he was id the second half before the suspension?

Is Odorizzi the first half pitcher?

Is Homer Bailey the better than league average pitcher he was last year?

Is Smeltzer the low 4 ERA or FIP pitcher?

Same for Dobnak?

Does Hill rebound to where he pitches like he did for the Dodgers?

If two of the first three questions have a no it is highly unlikely it matters who is available unless the offense is on pace to shatter the 1067 run record.

For every no answer in the second 3, replace the name with Graterol, Thorpe, then Poppen.  If you get to Poppens name  and the Twins are not on pace to shatter the 1067 record  it is highly unlikely it matters who is available.

There are 2 scenarios were the midseason trade becomes important. One is that the offense has managed to put the team in first place despite less than best efforts from the middle and bottom of the rotation.  If the top 2 are going good the team needs a third for the playoffs. The other scenario is Berrios is going great and the team pulls off a blockbuster because they don't think he can keep it up for a whole season but somebody else does.

The problem in getting a top of the rotation type pitcher in midseason is that it requires a team to be really bad while having a very good player.

If José, Jake and Pineda are all pitching well at the trade deadline, would a trade even be necessary?

I just don't find the need to trade away top prospects right now when the asking price is so high. Wait to see what we have and if we need a pitcher get him in July.

Not interested in these.  Price has been a disappointment in Boston and I think he would be here too.  I do not have a target pitcher.  I do not see Cleveland trading in the Central division.  Cueto is too injury prone.  Freeland?  Does he improve us over what we have?

Freeland is an interesting option.  So are Montas, Lamet and Gallon.  Look, Colorado and the D-Backs are probably going to be 15=20 games out of first place by the middle of June.  That's Freeland, Gray and Marquez.  With the D-Backs that's R. ray and Z. Gallon.  The Padres may only be 10-12 games out, not sure what that means for Lamet.  And no matter how bad I think the A's will be year after year, they just always overachieve.  Especially in the 2nd half...that kind of takes Montas off the table.  However...if the A's stumble, I'd put Montas at the top of the list.  

I know it is the off season, but a little early to be talking trade deadline deals, in my opinion.  So much will go into that decision, not only how the Twins are performing, but health, how the targets are performing, how their teams are doing, any prospects that emerge, ect.  

To me, unless they would be expected game one, two, or three, pitcher, no need to bring in anyone.  If you make a rent a player trade at deadline it will be for trying to win in playoffs and if they will not be a top 3 pitcher, what is point?  You either go big, or stand pat.

I have to laugh at any sentence that includes Clevinger and “attractive”. 

No to Price for all the obvious reasons. Just forget Clevinger. Not only super expensive, probably worth the price, but no way the Indians trade him to the Twins.

Interested in both Freeland and Cueto coming back from injury. Freeland, being younger, would cost more. Cueto would be a shorter term investment and cost less prospect wise.

I'm not so sure a couple guys we talk about aren't available now. Does Colorado really think they have a shot? Then why have they been shopping their best player? Arizona wasn't planning on adding anyone until Bumgarner worked his own deal to fit in and fell on their laps. They may have the depth to deal now.

No to Price for all the obvious reasons. Just forget Clevinger. Not only super expensive, probably worth the price, but no way the Indians trade him to the Twins.

Interested in both Freeland and Cueto coming back from injury. Freeland, being younger, would cost more. Cueto would be a shorter term investment and cost less prospect wise.

I'm not so sure a couple guys we talk about aren't available now. Does Colorado really think they have a shot? Then why have they been shopping their best player? Arizona wasn't planning on adding anyone until Bumgarner worked his own deal to fit in and fell on their laps. They may have the depth to deal now.

There has been quite a bit of player movement the last few years by several teams focused on payroll management. Take a look at ther link below. Colorado had never had $100M payroll until 2017 when it was $106. In 2018 it climber to $136M and they have a record payroll of $147M this year. If you think the Twins are cheap ... Colorado has more revenue thanks to great attendance and they had never broken $100M in payroll until 2017. 2018 was their best season in a decade and then they crashed to 71 wins last season. I suspect revenue will be down unless they are smokin hot the first couple of months. It would appear they are looking for payroll relief and probably also fear Arenado opts out and they get nothing.

Their SPs are very low cost. From a business perspective it makes more sense to hope for a big rebound. I would think they will get at least as good of a return if they wait for the deadline, wouldn't you?

Freeland is very interesting. That could be a great acquisition but Colorado would be very foolish to trade him now. They have 4 years of control remaining. I love the idea if he could be acquired at a depressed price right now. High risk but also high ceiling.

Trade targets will change by then... impossible to tell who will be available. Likely will be guys that are overpriced (not going to happen), guys that are on the last year of their deal (depending on what is wanted - possible) or teams looking to get a sweetheart deal for a prime guy (also not going to happen). 

I still think we sign a guy or two that are vets with no team... hopefully minor league deals so don't have to put on the 40 man roster. Lightning in a bottle as they say. 

Now that Starling Marte has finally been traded is now the time to make a push for Chris Archer? The Marte trade (Pirates receiving two well regarded but VERY young prospects) would seem to be a clear indication that the Pirates are headed for a full tear-down and rebuild so absolutely no reason to hang on to Chris Archer. Archer is about the same age as Marte, both have two remaining years on similar sized contracts and histories of uneven performances. Safe to assume similar trade value? Would Something like Celestino and Enlow do the trick?

I don't pretend to know how the Twins farm system and depth compared to Arizona. So, naturally, I can't accurately state if Celestino and Enlow is fair or an overpay. Gut reaction is that might be a slight overpay.

It's hard to compare Marte and Archer due to the CF/SP diconomy. Both are 31. But Marte is coming off a quality year and Archer is clearly a bounceback candidate coming off some decline.

Archer is someone I've mentioned before because he is a great candidate, with a change of scenery and coaching, to reverse his trend and become at least a mid rotation option again. But recent trends should make his prospect cost less.