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  • Twins Future Position Analysis: Center Field


    Cody Christie

    The Twins locked up Byron Buxton for the prime of his career, but if history is any indication, the team will need depth behind him in the years ahead. What players can step in for Buxton if the injury bug bites him again?

    Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson, USA TODAY Sports

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    Current Center Fielder: Byron Buxton
    In the days leading into the MLB lock-out, the Twins signed Byron Buxton to a seven-year, $100 million contract extension to keep him tied to Minnesota until his mid-30s. Buxton has played at a superstar level over the last three seasons when he has been healthy. Unfortunately, he has played 87 games or fewer in all but one of his big-league seasons. The Twins were able to sign Buxton for a relatively cheap deal because of these injury concerns, and he expressed a strong desire to stay in the Twin Cities. Now, Minnesota has to make a plan to keep him healthy, so some of the players below aren't relied on in center field. 

    40-Man Roster Options
    The Twins have used Max Kepler as a backup option in center field. He has made 127 starts and logged over 1,100 big-league innings at the position. In the past, Kepler preferred playing in a corner outfield spot because of the increased physical demand from playing in center. Kepler might be one of baseball's most valuable trade assets, and this may result in him being dealt this winter for starting pitching depth. 

    Some younger players on the 40-man roster also fit into the team's center field plans. The Twins rushed Gilberto Celestino to the big leagues last season because the team was out of outfield options on the 40-man roster. Entering last season, he had never appeared above the High-A level. In 70-games between Double- and Triple-A last year, he posted a .795 OPS and combined for 25 extra-base hits. If Buxton gets hurt, Celestino should get some opportunities next season.

    Royce Lewis is another intriguing option on the 40-man roster that may end up playing center field at the big-league level. Minnesota will give him every opportunity to prove he can be a shortstop before transitioning him to a new defensive position. However, his knee injury last spring means he hasn't been on the field since the 2019 Arizona Fall League, where he was named MVP.  

    On the Farm Options
    Not all of the players listed below are guaranteed to be on the team's roster at the start of next season. Still, it offers some insight into the organization's center field depth. Minnesota has multiple center field options populating the rosters throughout the minor leagues.

    According to FanGraphs, there are seven players scheduled to be outfielders at Triple-A next season, and all of them have some experience in center field. One of the team's top prospects, Austin Martin, is the most intriguing option as he split time between shortstop and center field after being acquired at last year's trade deadline. Few think he will stick at shortstop, so his eventual defensive home is likely in the outfield or at third base, his college position. Jake Cave is off the 40-man roster, but the team has used him in the center field in the past. His increasing age and more athletic options at Triple-A will likely relegate Cave to a corner outfield spot. 

    Mark Contreras played over 180 innings in center field for St. Paul last season, but he profiles more as a corner outfielder. Last season, he posted an .824 OPS in 114 games with 53 extra-base hits. Jimmy Kerrigan played all three outfield positions for the Saints in 2021 while hitting .260/.330/.478 (.808) with 38 extra-base hits. 

    DaShawn Keirsey was a 4th round pick in 2018 and served as one of the primary center fielders in Cedar Rapids last season. He was over a year and a half older than the average age of the competition at that level, and he posted a .733 OPS. Willie Joe Garry made 32 starts in center field for Fort Myers but only compiled a .601 OPS in 95 games.

    Misael Urbina was Minnesota's top international signee in the class of 2018. Last season, he made his stateside debut, where he was over two years younger than the competition. In 101 games, he batted .191/.299/.286 (.585) with 21 extra-base hits. One year after Urbina, Emmanuel Rodriguez was Minnesota's top international signee. Last season, he hit .214/.346/.524 (.870) with 17 extra-base hits in 37 games for the FCL Twins. 

    Overall, Minnesota has one of baseball's best players in center field, but depth is critical with his injury history. What do you think about the organization's center field depth? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

    OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES
    Catcher
    First Base
    Second Base
    Third Base
    Shortstop

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    Well obviously they have a long-term solution at starter.

    As for a backup, I have my doubts about Cave, as he was really bad in 2021. I don’t know if we can expect a bounceback year from him.

    Austin Martin possibly, but only when he’s ready. I don’t want to bring him up, have him struggle, and destroy his confidence.

    In any case, if you can find a (good) backup for little money, do it. If you can’t, have Martin or Cave fill the role.

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    Kepler is the guy best suited to fill in if need be.  I'm done with Cave.  I would LOVE for Lewis to be the long term solution at SS.  However, he's shown that he's somewhat competent at SS, 2B, 3B, and OF.  A Chris Taylor Swiss Army Knife type has proven to be EXTREMELY valuable to the Dodgers.  The Twins have a couple of guys with that potential in Lewis and Austin Martin.  Guys like Rodriguez and Urbina have potential, but are "several" years away.  Celestino needs a little more time at St. Paul but would be the next best "immediate" option behind Kepler.  

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    Thanks Cody for showing what we have for CF. Since Buxton came up to play CF, the Twins figured all our CF problems have been solved. They never thought about having a respectable back-up there. In 2018-19, when Cave came on the scene, Cave was at his best and he was OK offensively. FO thought they found the solution but we still lost 75% of our games with him playing CF. Defense is hard to really analyze by stats because you can cherry pick certain stats to make your point. IMO Cave didn't pass the eye test or the Win/Loss stats.

    W/O out a decent CF back-up we really can't compete and progress in the post season. In house we haven't had anyone to step up and fill that role for many years. Last year the only one, as it turned out, was able to sub CF was Baddoo. Twins need to finally look past Cave and look out of house to fill that role temporarily because I believe Celestino, Martin or Lewis could fill that spot in the near future.. 

     

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    Buxton plays 150 games in CF, wins the MVP in a land slide to a World Series championship and Nick Gordon spells him every other week to keep Buxton fresh. In 10 years after a second extension and hall of fame career with 7 MVPs averaging 148 games per season, Buxton will retire and a yet to be drafted rookie will take over

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    Celestino showed he needs time in the Minors or he may be another Rooker, but his fielding agility would be nice to have.

    Hopefully they keep Garlick who was the best replacement last season; Gordon, I like his spunk but he remind me too much of Willie Mays Hays.

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    I think Gordon is our backup CFer in 2022 until Lewis and/or Martin get the callup. I don't think we ever see Cave in a Twins uniform again. By the end of 2022 or start of 2023 Celestino is the 4th OFer where he stays for his entire tenure with the Twins.

    None of the prospects (to be clear I mean non-Lewis or Martin prospects) excite me in the near-term. Urbina and Rodriguez have some exciting upside, but are way too far away as of this moment to have a strong feeling on one way or another. But with Buxton locked in for 7 more years they don't exactly need big time prospects knocking down the CF door. I think Gordon, Celestino, Lewis, and Martin provide enough security behind Buxton for now.

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    I think Gordon is the primary backup to Buxton to start the season.  Martin or Lewis will eventually play into that role.  Celestino could as well, but depending on how Martin and/or Lewis turn out, he may be a good trade chip or become a primary backup should Lewis or Martin be dealt.  

    There are a few scenarios there that would work fine, but beyond that, I'm not really sure what they've got.

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    3 hours ago, Sconnie said:

    Buxton plays 150 games in CF, wins the MVP in a land slide to a World Series championship and Nick Gordon spells him every other week to keep Buxton fresh. In 10 years after a second extension and hall of fame career with 7 MVPs averaging 148 games per season, Buxton will retire and a yet to be drafted rookie will take over

    I want what you're having!

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    I don't think this is just a question of a 'backup' for Buxton. We need to have someone for about 100 games per season, that's a starter! If we are not looking at handing it to Celestino, then we need to grab a veteran off FA like; Gardner (38) but still has something to offer, and at 38 better not demand a huge contract. Pillar or Hamilton have been solid defensive options in the past and Hamilton still has wheels.

    I hope a fraction of what Sconnie says comes true, that in the end of his career, Buxton averages 148 games per season. But, he has done NOTHING to show he is trending that way. We need someone who will be prepared to step in and play the rest of the season after about 30-60 games.

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    12 hours ago, Eephus said:

    What is Celestino's floor/ceiling offensively and defensively?

    Celestino was pretty dreadful for the 23 games he played in the majors in 2021 (granted, a small sample size).

    While he was solid at the plate in AAA in 2021, it’s incredibly concerning that he wasn’t ready for the major leagues 6 years after being drafted.

    So IDK what the ceiling for him would be defensively. Offensively, well, he would essentially be that of a rookie (could shock you but will most likely need to time to adjust to the majors).

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    So Celestino WILL BE a top 4th OF with a nice combination of offensive skills to prove to be valuable, at least until he hits FA down the road or the Twins trade him. My opinion. But I'm not going to push him again, unnecessarily at this point. I'm going to bring in someone like Pillar for 1yr if I'm trying to have a good 2022 team. He fits, won't cost much, and is easy to walk away from if necessary. But Kepler and Gordon can also fill in, assuming Kepler is still around. I am not crazy about Gordon in CF, but I was very surprised at how well he adapted so quickly on the fly.

    I wouldn't have protected Cave. But I kinda understood why they did. Glad he's off the 40 man, because he should be at this point. But I wouldn't sleep on him. Despite his offense disappearing, I think his defense actually improved. If healthy, I could see him forcing his way back to the 40 man if his bat returns to his 2018-19 version of his past self. It won't be an easy road, but I could see it happening.

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    12 hours ago, cHawk said:

    it’s incredibly concerning that he wasn’t ready for the major leagues 6 years after being drafted.

    Six years is not concerning to me.  He still hasn't reached his 23rd birthday. 

    If you ever run a team, I suggest not signing* 16 year olds from the Dominican Republic, unless you are sure they will be future Hall of Famers who will reach the majors at age 21 or 22 hitting like a veteran. :)

     

    * Okay, "trading for."

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    I think the article should be edited from "if Buxton gets hurt" to "when Buxton gets hurt".  We all know it will happen.  That being said it appears we have people that could fill in the spot during that time on the 40 man roster.  We will have to see if they can hold their own at the plate though. 

    I also wonder why Kepler is being called one of most valuable trade assets.  He is getting near end of prime, has never been more than an average offense guy, with a few stints of hot runs, and a top defender.  I think people on here are overvaluing corner OF guys.  I would say 2 years ago he would have been a top trade chip based on contract and what he did and thoughts he may grow.  However, 2 years later he has regressed and not grown as hoped. 

    I like Kepler just fine and would be fine keeping or trading, but he is not going to bring in good pitching.  He will bring in a guy from a team rebuilding because Kepler would not be there once rebuild is done.  He will not bring in someone from a team ready to win now because those teams will not give up MLB ready pitching because they will need it to win now.  Maybe, he could bring in a near ready prospect from a team that has super depth and ready to win now.  He could be part of a deal but would not be the main piece coming from Twins for any MLB ready starters. 

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