Assessing the Twins Garver for Kiner-Falefa Trade

Gotta give to get. IKF provides excellent to elite defense in middle infield, but then so did Simmons. Who knows how long Garver will remain at C, and/or slug at high levels. The pitching suspect coming back...meh.....hope it works out. He's a small guy with high velo...we shall see.

Not a great deal for Twins, but after Simmons signed, options were limited if they were going to plug the SS hole and NOT SPEND MONEY DOING IT. This seems as fair a compromise as we can expect.

Does open up question(s) about Miranda's or Arraez's future, or even Donaldson's. It would seem there are more moves on the horizon.

Good analysis, Ted.  I think the Twins FO knows this is a transition year, and things would have to break extremely well in order to compete in 2022.  I really believe their focus is on getting ready for 2023 while still trying to get better for this year.  Kiner-Falefa is an excellent defensive shortstop that clearly outperformed Simmons at the plate last year, and has much more potential at the plate than Simmons going forward.  He is a good addition.  Plus, if they are committed to seeing how the young arms are going to do this year, having Polanco, Kiner-Falefa and Buxton up the middle definitely provides some defensive support for the young guys.  I also think we overestimate what Garver can bring in return for established pitching as some are suggesting.  I love him and respect him, but he comes with injury concerns, and his biggest year was 2019 and we all know those numbers don't mean a whole lot.  Just look at the number of players who had career years in 2019 and have not approached it since--Kepler for example.  I am not sure teams were standing in line to acquire him.  The A's for example, are going to want young/inexpensive players in return for pitching, so I don't think Garver would have been of great interest to them.  Plus, I think Jeffers needs to "be the man" behind the plate for us to really see how he develops.  Splitting time with Garver makes no sense, so one of them had to go in my humble opinion.  I think both teams did well in this trade.  If the Twins acquire pitching, I think we should be prepared to lose Arraez, Martin, Lewis, Miranda, or other young players as that is what it will cost.  

I'll definitely miss Garvsauce, but given his age and position, it's pretty much only downhill from here and the Twinkies desperately needed a competent SS option, so you gotta rank this as a decent trade. Certainly not a steal or anything, but given that Garver's catching days are likely limited and he's headed for a DH/1B type position, that's something the Twins already have plenty of, so this could definitely be trading from a position of strength to patch up an obvious need.

That is a nice summary.  I guess my number one question is how many more young arms can they really afford to add to the 40 man?  Henriquez is yet one more young unproven arm that is taking up roster space.  My second question is who on the pitching side can they get that will really make a difference at this point?  Pineda and Odo types are more filler than playoff pitchers.  The Twins literally need one or two of their young pitchers to step up and be elite.  Something we have rarely seen in the past.  There still is time to make moves but pitching still looks to be the hope and a prayer plan right now to me.

Good breakdown! Love this trade for the Twins. If Ronny can be a good RP in the bigs next year, this will be a great trade.

Don't agree that he is a no hit player ... 271 with 8 hr and 20 SB is pretty decent. Clearly not with the big boppers but with gold glove type defense that is more than respectable... also given that the new Rangers ballpark is NOT a hitters park. 

Also given the very nice arm coming along with .. win for the Twins. 

IKF was one of my options at SS but Garver wouldn't be my choice in this trade. Losing Garver will definitely reduce our line-up offense. I see Rortvedt being our near future premier catcher, so I'd prefer use Jeffers and get something more in return together with IKF.

There are many other avenues I would've done instead of this one but I imagine that many possibilities were discussed before this deal actually went down. Although the deal hurts, IMO the gain outweighs the loss

44 minutes ago, Dman said:

That is a nice summary.  I guess my number one question is how many more young arms can they really afford to add to the 40 man?  Henriquez is yet one more young unproven arm that is taking up roster space.  My second question is who on the pitching side can they get that will really make a difference at this point?  Pineda and Odo types are more filler than playoff pitchers.  The Twins literally need one or two of their young pitchers to step up and be elite.  Something we have rarely seen in the past.  There still is time to make moves but pitching still looks to be the hope and a prayer plan right now to me.

Does Henriquez need to go on the 40-man? Isn't he a little young for that?

A good shortstop is always a valuable part of any team. What totally confuses me is this - who is going to pitch? The posts on TD are using the prospects on the mound, which makes me think of a related question. If the Twins can just let the pitching prospects get their feet wet, why can't they let Palacios, Gordon, Lewis, or Martin get their feet wet? I'm not advocating for that policy but am bamboozled how it is possible to go forth without decent experienced pitchers at the front of the rotation. Still time for a few big trades though. Hope?

I guess the biggest positive about this trade is that I don’t have to be vested in this season so I probably will not follow them as much this year.  This doesn’t feel like a good trade at all.

A fair trade, a .270 hitter that can steal 20 bases and play great defense at SS and 3rd is a nice thing to have.

I'm of the mindset that Garver got a huge boost from the juiced ball year in 2019.  He is still a good hitter, I just dont think we are losing an elite hitter. 

The one thing this trade does not do is move the needle much at all.  Although I find the trade fair for both sides, it seems a little unneccessary for the Twins to fill the SS position by downgrading catcher.  I would think keeping Garver and signing a one year SS again might have been better.  Jonathan Villar probably wont sign another 1 year $3.5m contract like he did last year but I doubt he will break the bank.

And now, for the 3rd thread on the subject...........

57 minutes ago, blindeke said:

Does Henriquez need to go on the 40-man? Isn't he a little young for that?

I thought so as well but was surprised to see him on the 40 man.  I think 16 year olds get five years before needing to be added.  His 5 years appear to be up given this article.

57 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

 Still time for a few big trades though. Hope?

Yeah, I'd like to think that the Kiner-Falefa  trade (which I like) is just a piece of the puzzle. I believe that there will be a significant pitching acquisition(s), way more than likely by trade.

Now, if we could just get a National League team scrambling to fill its DH role and also need a veteran 3B to deal for Donaldson we can get on to the inevitable rebuild for 2023.  I'm all for it.

I have no idea why there is a perception Jeffers is a better defensive catcher than Garver.

Since the start of 2020 at the MLB Level.

Jeffers 832 Garver 620.2 innings. The better of the two = 

Steal Attempts = Garver 44 vs. Jeffers 75
Caught Stealing% = Garver 23% vs. Jeffers 20%
Catcher Framing = This one is a bit of a toss up. Garver ahead in some years, Jeffers ahead in others same with different sources.
Passed Balls = Jeffers 7 (every 119 innings) vs. Garver 7 (1 every 88.2 innings)
Wild Pitches = Garver 22 (1 every 28.1 innings) vs. Jeffers 32 (1 every 26 innings)
PB + WP = Garver 29 (1 every 21.2 innings) vs. Jeffers 39 (1 every 21.1 Innings) 
Errors = Garver 1 error (.998 fielding percentage) vs. Jeffers 4 errors (.995 fielding percentage)

• Garver is arguably better at controlling the run game, both in opponents' willingness to try to steal, and the likelihood they get caught stealing. 
• Garver is arguably equal with catcher framing.
• Garver is arguably the more reliable receiver.
• Garver is arguably less likely to commit an error.

Exactly why is it Jeffers is considered the better defensive catcher? Garver is an above average defensive catcher in most metrics when I've compared him to his peers.
 

This trade bodes well for young, nervous pitchers looking for a measure of comfort from solid defense up the middle. With Jeffers covering home, Donaldson covering 3rd, and SS covered by some kind of falafel guy, the only hole in the defense is that iffy centerfielder, Buxton. If Buck can bring his A game, I'd feel good as a rookie hurler with a habit of throwing medium fastballs center cut. 

I don't know about y'all, but I actually enjoy the wild up's and down's of a rookie pitcher. He spends much of his youth learning to throw a baseball hissing fast and buzzing with spin. If he finally makes it to the premium level, the emotional pressure suddenly multiplies, not to mention young wives and new mortgages. 

One of the best aspects of new pitchers is how relieved they are to have professional fielders and hitters around them. They may give up a few runs, but a good hitting team can get them back. They may serve up some cookies, but good fielders can steal away some hits. It can be worth the price of admission just to see how a new pitching staff develops. 

Ah.. finally we did something. Obviously not what was expected, but getting younger, and at a position of need is a plus IMO. Our window is still a year or two away, so at least the FO seems to know that.

The pain was that the Twins need to have Ronnie Henriquez on the 40-man roster. A guy who will start and spend most of the season at AA ball. Amidst a roster full of other pitchers that are doomed to be in the minors for msot of the season (Duran, Balazovic, Winder, Vallimont, Enlow). That's six arms you don't want to lose, but are long-shot hopefuls to contribute in 2022 in the majors.

So I read the news early this Saturday morning and worked all day, then ran errands, read every single opinion on TD to the time when I'm posting now, did a little research on career numbers, and even listened to Tom's video post/opinion before I began to voice my thoughts/opinion. All of this to be dispassionate about my opinion and attempt to look at things from a practical and logical approach. I wanted to be fair after my early morning surprise.

My opinion after much time and contemplation: I don't like this trade.

In the interest of total "fairness", I feel it's important to look at the pro's and con's involved, from Falvey's statement, to the opinions shared by all the posters, to my own thoughts.

CONS:

1] We can debate all we want to about Garver's defense, but overall,  receiving, game calling, framing,  throwing, it was at least solid if not pretty good. Fair? His offense has been above or well above average since his ML debut with the exception of 2020 when he basically played hurt the whole year and tried to gut things out. He doesn't ever have to reproduce 2019 numbers again to be one of the best offensive catchers in all of MLB. Yes, he's had a concussion and a couple of injuries. His serious injury in 2021 was completely freakish in nature, and he STILL came back to play and pound and produce at the plate. He's not old at a little over 31yo and has been on a "time share" behind the dish with an approach the Twins like and I applaud. So limited number of games played is GREATLY skewed by this. I was looking forward to having no fixture at DH and allowing him to get a little time there on a share basis to keep his bat in play. He wouldn't have brought a quality ML SP on his own, but could have been part of a 2 for 1, or similar, that might have.

2] SS was a gaping hole! And the Twins needed a 1-2yr fix/option at least. Saying the talented and athletic Martin has ZERO chance to play SS in the long run might be accurate. Probably is. But to not allow him to try and a light bulb turning on after ONE professional season is wrong. (Even if it turns out he can only be a fill-in at the spot). Further, despite time missed, Lewis is just as talented an athlete, probably more so, and still just might be THE GUY once he gets back to playing again. With Galvis removing himself from the discussion with a surprising move to Asia to play, there was a chance the respected/proven Iglesias might rebound in 2022. Villar could maybe handle the spot for a year and at least provide an offensive upgrade. For that matter, Simmons is still a high quality defender who has a higher career OPS then IKF despite his awful 2021. Any kind of rebound to his career norm would make him a viable and quality short term option. And on the trade front, do the Cardinals really want to spend several $M for DeJong as a utility/fallback option? I thought he could be grabbed for a couple decent prospects from St Louis.

3] Catching depth is now removed from the Twins system as there are a handful of "interesting" prospects who could advance in 2022, but Jeffers and the probably "not quite ready" Rortvedt are now in the spotlight and I have no clue where the depth comes from.

PROS:

1] Garver HAS had a concussion and some other injuries, though the 2021 groin injury/surgery MIGHT be dismissed based on it's freakish nature. And while his workload has been carefully monitored by the Twins' , he has yet to be a 60-70% full time catcher. While I believe he's a young 31yo backstop, I can see other teams questioning injury and age as to his future behind the dish. And I do agree that his trade value may be higher now than a year from now. (I'm looking at THIS trade at the moment, and not part of a different package, to be clear). 

2] I dismiss the idea of catcher splits in regard to offensive numbers in regard to 2021 Garver/Jeffers. I tend to dismiss in general because I haven't seen many teams over the years who have a "perfect" split of RH/LH. I just think Jeffers got off to a bad start in 2021. And I sorta expected that as he was young and needed to make some adjustments as pitchers adjusted to him. But drafted as an offense first catcher, he has developed nicely as a defensive backstop, probably better than Garver. He hit in college, hit in milb, has flashed at the ML level, he's younger, he's better defensively overall...now he gets the reps to be part of the future. He may never be the pure hitter Garver was, but could come close. And with even better defense, might be the better player.

Rortvedt, IMO, is not yet ready, despite his defense and "Gung ho" attitude. I don't know if there is ANYONE available right now on the FA market or really cheap trade, to bring in as a short term backup, but I'm hoping there is. And that's not a knock on Rortvedt. If you look at his history, he's made improvements yearly. I love the kid. But just a little more time to develop could give the Twins a great 1-2 punch as early as this year. I'd still like another veteran involved because I'm worried about AAA depth at this point. But it's now time for a couple talented prospects to get their time to establish themselves. And the potential is pretty damn good.

3] I was surprised to find out Kiner-Falefa is actually relatively new to being a SS after being converted from catcher. (Never heard of that move before). Now, that conversion took place a few years ago, but I find it interesting. He's spent time at 2B and 3B, as well as SS but he looks like a true defensive SS. He's at best an OK offensive SS, and he has some speed which I value and like, but his 20SB is a career high. But speed on the bases, with an OK bat, and quality defense is nothing to dismiss. Just ready to turn 27yo, there is some upside in his game offensively and defensively. Not expensive, there is the "option" to keep him in some capacity, especially if he improves, vs just being a temporary option. But he DOES fill a need at SS for now.

I actually love that he's athletic enough and versatile enough to even cover catcher. NOT that he was brought on for that. But it's interesting.

Henriquez is also part of the trade. Not overly excited here, but I see value. We all know milb always has weight, if not height, incorrect based on original draft/signing numbers. Despite looking a bit lanky on video I've seen,  I bet he's more in the 175-185lbs range these days. If he can whip it to the reported velocity with 2 pitches and a questionable 3rd, he could be a SP candidate, but he screams high velocity middle IP BP candidate. And that's OK.

SUMMARY: 

This trade is not COMPLETE B.S.

There is value here and some potential. 

I still don't like this trade. I think we sold wrong, not low, but wrong.

Ted writes a nice summary that paints an optimistic picture. I hope those who like this trade are correct.

It is noted above that the Twins value defense. I hope that is true, but the evidence is shaky. Sano, Arraez, Larnach, Rooker, etc. are not especially noteworthy with a glove. LF was pretty much a disaster last year. The ball is still in Falvey's court but the predictions for where the Twins finish in the AL Central may not be kind without significant trades in the next few days. Two more Dylan Bundy types are not my choices, but who knows, Bundy could win the Cy Young this summer. We need to stay positive I guess.

I like this trade as it solidifies the SS position.  However, there simply HAVE to be other moves to add pitching coming from the FO.  Many on TD always look at adding veteran pitching as a one-year solution.  I don't.  If I trade Arraez in a package to get pitching from the Marlins or A's I'm looking to make a commitment to keeping whatever I gave solid assets up to get.  I see no need to keep Arraez with the acquisition of Kiner-Falefa.  Unless a trade of Donaldson is coming I don't want to see anyone blocking Miranda.  He has nothing left to prove at St. Paul.  He needs AB's, whether that's as our regular LF'er, 3B-man or primary utility man.  Kiriloff will be in the lineup regularly at either 1B or LF with an occasional game at DH.  The young RH pitcher is also a fine addition.  having him could allow the Twins to trade one of our "other" young pitchers in a package or possibly spin Henriquez off as part of a deal to bring in a vet.    

Garver will be missed but I do like this trade. I thought we were already deep in pitching at the high Minor levels and now we get deeper. Does this show that we definitely are going to see what that pitching can do with the majors early and often? And while he is not quite at the level of Arraez offensively, does this make a trade of him more likely?

4 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

could allow the Twins to trade one of our "other" young pitchers in a package or possibly spin Henriquez off as part of a deal to bring in a vet.    

Yes, but .... Bassitt to NYM for Ginn (think Duran) and Oller (think Strotman) is gone and he would have been a decent guy to have in Target Field. Without Tortuga, the Twins are going to need pitching.

5 hours ago, Game7-91 said:

Does open up question(s) about Miranda's or Arraez's future, or even Donaldson's. It would seem there are more moves on the horizon.

I don't want this to develop into a Josh Donaldson tangent, but this trade certainly impacts his role. I think it's very likely he'll be playing elsewhere come August.

3 hours ago, h2oface said:

And now, for the 3rd thread on the subject...........

4th, actually.

3 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

Now, if we could just get a National League team scrambling to fill its DH role and also need a veteran 3B to deal for Donaldson we can get on to the inevitable rebuild for 2023.  I'm all for it.

Agree 100%.

Who will be the back-up catcher when the inevitable happens and  one of the 2 current catchers gets hurt? 

5 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Who will be the back-up catcher when the inevitable happens and  one of the 2 current catchers gets hurt? 

Where is Willians Astudillo when we need him?