Game7-91

The points you raise are fair ones. It is true SD is a one-trick pony with only the Padres in town, and the competition for pro sports $$ is not apples to apples in the comparison. But its also true SD is 1/2 the size of the MSP market, the Twins have the summer months to themselves (save for the Lynx) , and as RRG points out sports fans in So Cal have the LA market to choose from as well as SD. SD does have an advantage of being the only team in town. I'm not certain that difference is very significant in their outcomes though. You also bring up a great point on the "books"....all of us have to work from assumptions about revenues and expenses because the accounting and financial recordings are all private, so my judgments are conditioned by an underylying ignorance of the actual finances. MLB does not even publish break-downs of the revenue sharing pie. But what we do know is that both stadiums in SD and MSP were publicly financed , in part, and further subsidized by tax exemptions and credits that accrue to the benefit of the ownership group for many years after the construction of the stadium. These benefits do not accrue to the taxpaying public, just the opposite. IMHO, the fact of public financing should result in mandatory public financial and accounting statements from every pro sports team that uses public subsidies to build new stadiums/arenas. The taxpaying public has an interest in how the subsidized funds are used to benefit the community as a whole. Once that happens, (which is, never) we wont have to make conjectural arguments. It's all very very frustrating.

Yes, they are. That is a really interesting point. I do not doubt the working culture of each organization informs its processes and evaluates its outcomes in very different ways.

In 2010, as Target Field was set to open its first season, Jim Pohlad was quoted about the Twins future payrolls relative to the previous season's 95 million dollar payroll: “We’re not going to spend the money just to spend the money,” he said. “It wouldn’t hurt if it dropped below, in my opinion, occasionally. But we’re going to try to put the best team on the field in the most prudent financial way. I think we accomplished that this year. At least on paper, we’re getting our money’s worth.” In 2022, when asked about his franchise's payroll, San Diego Padres principal owner Peter Seidler had this to say: “This is about baseball for me and our organization. Fans never ask me, ‘What do you think about spending that much?’ They never ask me that. They say, ‘Man, I love to go out to see Machado and Tatis and Croney. That’s what I get. Why do it? Did we give up too much? That’s about 10 percent of what I’m thinking. I think, what makes San Diego different than 29 other markets? But we certainly have conviction, there no equivocating about that. The fluidity is always there. We’re an active organization. We love where we’re at." As the Padres prepare for Game 3 of the NLCS, and their second consecutive season of fielding a highly competitive, legitimate World Series contending roster, I thought it would be interesting to compare the situations of two franchises that are going in dramatically different directions. In 1984, Carl Pohlad purchased the Minnesota Twins for 44 million dollars. Flash forward to 2022, and the franchise value has appreciated to a reported 1.4 billion dollars, a roughly 32-fold increase in 38+ years of ownership. Note that the the Pohlad ownership group's estimated net worth is 3.8 billion. In 2012, a new ownership group consisting of members of the O'Malley baseball family purchased the San Diego Padres for 800 million. Peter Seidler, an O'Malley grandson, emerged as principal owner in 2020. The franchise value has appreciated to a reported 1.5 billion. Seidler's personal net worth is a reported 3 billion. Franchise revenues, as estimated by Statista, reports the Padres with 282 million in revenue in 2021, and the Twins with 268 million. In 2019, both franchises generated revenues of 297 million. The Padres play in Petco Park, built with public funds and opened in 2004, six years prior to Target Field opening, but of a similar generation of stadium design and capacity. Both teams retain rights to revenues from concessions and suites. (Remember, this was a significant argument in favor of building Target Field-the Twins revenues would jump significantly , and therefore payroll, because of the additional concessions and suites revenues from Target Field, which the Twins did not receive at the Metrodome.) In 2020, when Seidler assumed control of the franchise. San Diego was situated nationally as the 27th ranked metro area in TV market share (Minneapolis/St Paul ranked 14th). And yet, the Padre's payroll coming into this season started at 218 million, 5th highest in MLB, and after the Soto trade in August, probably at or slightly above the 230 million CBT level. The Padres' payrolls have increased since 2019 from 74 to 230 million and from 24th in MLB to 5th. The Twins have increased from 113 to 137 million in the same period, and from 18th to 17th in MLB. We have spent much time and digital ink on TD debating the finer points of creating a 2023 payroll within the constraints of the Twins way of doing business. But we are never addressing the elephant in the room. The Twins way of doing business is not working. It has not worked for 30 years. Here is Jim Pohlad again, from the same MinnPost article, on the status of the roster coming into 2010: "And Pohlad stressed that qualifying for postseason alone was no longer good enough for an organization that has lost five consecutive playoff series since 2002, three of them to the Yankees. He even appeared to guarantee a future world championship, without specifying when. “I hear that we’ve got to do better, or get better, so that when we face the Yankees (we’re competitive),” he said. “I hope we’re not a team that’s intimidated by the Yankees. I don’t believe we are. I’m personally not intimidated by the Yankees or the Yankee organization. We just need to, every year, get better, so that whoever we face, that we will be able to advance. “Teams mature. I don’t know where the core of our team is on the maturity level or the peak level, but I don’t think we’re at peak yet. Our core group of players is still very young. The future is very strong, and we will advance past the first round of the playoffs, into the World Series, and to the White House.” Thirteen years on, what has changed? That they have loosened the pocketbook ever so slightly for the likes of Correa is not encouraging, given that they did that only after clearing other contracts first. Adding one elite player in isolation, on a heavily hedged one year bet, while not adding equivalent commitments to other areas of the roster, is hardly a sign the Twins are about to join the big boys club. The Twins have the means to do better but simply choose not to do so. All that said, it is also clear that with AJ Preller the Padre's have a GM who is not afraid to take risks with talent evaluation and acquisition. He developed a farm system that allowed for major trades along the way. But they also were not looking to squeeze pennies for value from every trade, every prospect, and every FA signing. They swung big, winning some. and losing some. But the overall outcome is undeniably positive, for the franchise, for the city, and for the fans. I love that Seidler speaks about the fans and what drives their interest in the team. It's about competing, with top-tier talent, and a healthy aversion to risk for the sake of competitiveness. This is not reckless spending. It is analytical in the best sense, recognizing the risk involved, and accepting that risk as the cost of doing business, if one defines the cost of doing business as running an organization that exudes an unyielding commitment to fielding a competitive roster year in and year out. I cannot imagine this type of thinking in the current iteration of One Twins Way. That needs to change if the Twins are going to develop into the consistent contender the fans want and deserve. Change starts at the top. The Padres drew 2.9 million fans in the 2022 regular season, from a metro population of 1.5 million. The Twins drew 1.8 million fans, from a metro population of 3.7 million. Memo to the Pohlads: spending is its own reward.

Strong analogy....are the Twins wearing tighty whities or boxers? Tighty's give you a clearly defined form to fill, any alterations or tire tracks require full-on changeover, while boxers keep options open in case adaptability and fluidity is key, leaving more maneuverability over time. Are the Twins tighty's or boxers, this is the question.

Liking Rodon and Montero additions, pitching is still numero uno needs improvement if Twins want to move the needle to legitimacy. Position roster just feels like a mess (generally speaking, not soecific to your ideas here)of a jigsaw puzzle where 1/2 the pieces dont fit with anything else. I like your creativity trying to address the need in of and ss especially.

Which century?

....who also played with his glove on his left ear ...truly unique player.....

Much has been made of Max Kepler's future, or lack thereof, with the Twins. Kepler's offensive struggles the last 3 seasons are well documented. As 2023 is the season of decision regarding Kepler's contract (Twins can buyout at end of season, or extend him into 2024 for 10M), questions have been raised about whether or not Kepler should be traded. The problem for the Twins is that they would be selling low on Kepler. He is 3 years removed from his career year, and since then, has performed badly at the plate. In Los Angeles, Cody Bellinger's career has taken an similar course to Kepler's. Since the outlier season of 2019, in which both players had career seasons and Bellinger won NL MVP, Bellinger's offensive decline has exceeded Kep's. Comparing their overall career #'s ( https://mlbcomparisons.com/cody-bellinger-vs-max-kepler-comparison/ ) shows two fairly similar career offensive profiles. Yet based on history alone, Bellinger would seem to have a higher potential ceiling. But reality is that in the 3 seasons since the juiced ball season of 2019, both players have flailed badly at the plate. Both are coming into contract years. Bellinger is in the final of his arb years, and is projected to make roughly 16M in 2023. Kepler is due 8M in the final guaranteed year of his contract, and 10M if the Twins were to option is contract into 2024, with a 1M team option buyout. Kepler turns 30 in February 2023, Bellinger will turn 28 in July 2023. Both are noted for defensive abilities. Bellinger's natural position is CF, which would seem a strong way to backup/platoon with Buck. Bellinger could slide between RF and CF as needed. The Twins would still need a viable 4th OF though, and that person does not yet seem to be on the roster. The bet would be on some level of offensive resurgence by Bellinger, while providing security in CF for the inevitable injuries to Buck. The Dodgers move on from Bellinger, and take a similar chance on reinvigorating Kepler's career, while somewhat reducing their luxury tax liabilities. Is this a viable trade off-season trade scenario for the Twins?

Pretty much everything chpettit19 says here is spot on. It's a great concept and business plan, requires having the talent in the system, identifying the talent early on and moving quickly. Hoping Twins have guys of this caliber in the system, Lewis? Lee? Like Chpettit, I have high hopes for Lewis/Lee combo, could see one or both of those two fitting this kind of profile.

Seth, does the Dominican League count as a full MiLB season? I am surprised to learn that signing a 16 yr old int'l player means teams have to decide by age 22 whether or not to commit. Seems like a huge risk with a 4M bonus. Dont know any of these guys, but can note that, officially, the Jake Cave-era has ended, unless we trade for him this winter?

Interesting they have Martin at SS. And seems we're not the only ones with struggling pitching so far. Will be great to see how they do.

1 out of 4, = tied for best prediction % on TD! Congrats Ashbury?

"...the Twins days of pretending they have the baseline of a first-place roster capable of carrying one-dimensional role players may be in the past..." Speaking truth Cody. I would only swap "may be" for "is". In answer to title question, yes.

I could accept another year of Pagan if it meant free Heiniken, all you could eat brats, and $1 lower level seating at TF. And reruns of Cheers on their new big screen scoreboard after the 5th inning of every game.

I've heard it said cHawk is a good guy, so its darn generous of him to serve as volunteer scorekeeper for playoff predictions. Thanks cHawk! Scorekeeper has sole unilateral authority to determine how points are earned, what rules apply, and whether rules will be enforced or willy-nilly suspended. To walk the walk: Clev over TB, 2-1 Tor over Sea, 2-1 NYM over SD, 2-0 SL over Phil, 2-1 And to go further out on a limb, the Twins will not win this season's World Series Championship.

cHawk, you allowing predictions on this thread b4 the games start?

I thought .500 was their ceiling. I am also a pessimist by nature. Usually this is not helpful in life generally. But as a Twins fan, it has certain advantages. Then came April/May, Hope flickered in the depths. Could it really be wondered I. And against my better judgment, I caved, allowing the lyin' eyes of Mr Optimism to speak of dreams and visions of great things to come. How could it be though, I thought, you know how this will end. Still, I allowed the kindling to burn, and so I adjusted my earlier pessimism, taking on the demeanor of the True Fan who sees through only the misty rose of cheerleader glasses. Then came everything that followed, and like a rusted out jalopy that once was loved but must be junked, that false hope was crushed without mercy in the compactor that is a MLB season. There were no mythical fates involved, no baseball Gods pulling strings....just the reality of 162 games showing forth a teams true colors. So color me beige along with the 2022 Twins, a monochrome of mediocrity once again. FWIW: As for the rest of the division, in the interest of full disclosure to the TD community, I was way off, except for KC. I just did not see the CWS/Detroit suckfest coming, at all. I thought one or the other was winning division. Cleveland I thought was sleepy good with pitching potential, but I thought their ceiling was #3, there to battle with Twins, maybe, maybe reaching 81 wins.....an epic struggle for 3rd in the AL Central. Hey, at least we won that, sort of, so Mr. Optimism gets the last word on this pessimists 2022 season! There is hope after all..................

My post-season activities include raking leaves and stockpiling firewood, gotta keep mrs game 791 happy. Will not be watching playoffs, dont pay the freight for cable or streaming, cant say i miss the spectacle of tv production at all, the rare WS game i tune into reminds me of what I am not missing. Yahoo MLB Scoreboard is a pretty painless way to keep up to speed. Now its waiting for end of WS and start of FA.....what will Twins do to figure a way to bring winning, competitive MLB back to Minnesota? Should be an exciting off-season. Looking forward to some spirited debate and analysis on TD...hope FO tunes into these threads, they might learn a few things?

Sobering assessment to say the least, and no clear way forward. They will have to roll the dice with some of these guys, when its down to Plan K, L, M, let alone Plan B, options are so limited. It may be an era of injury-forced reconstruction of most of the ML roster.

Agree with most of this, the only caveat being Miranda as long term 3B. Maybe that happens, but I would guess one of Lee or Lewis makes that transition in '24. Next season is about figuring out who plays where in the IF. AK needs to prove he can stay healthy, and be effective coming off the wrist. I hope they dont build the infield on an assumption that AK is going to seamlessly work back into FT duty at 1B. Hire a 1B tutor for Miranda over the winter, let him figure out how to play the position. Maybe that means Urshela is back on a 1yr deal, and as others have suggested, he could be a movable piece in July if one or two of the IF prospects show any staying power. I can't see them committing to Urshela beyond 1 yr though.

They can start with a new soft cover:

Lewis and Lee coming up together, its not hard to imagine these two combo 3B/SS.....seems like a promising left side of the infield. Lee had a serious knee reconstruction as freshman at college, more involved than Lewis's ACL. He's fine, gotta believe Lewis will be fine. I'm pumped to see these two together.

RHP Jordan Balazovic (0-7, 7.81 ERA)