Game7-91

Agree with Nick this is clearly the emerging model du jour in mlb. Makes me queasy though. On any given day, the pitching is only as good as the weakest link in the chain so to speak. I prefer length from starters, measured more by outs, less by pitch count....i have a hard time accepting 115 pitches every 5th day on average is substantially increasing risk of injury. Besides, protecting starters in this way further exposes BP to ineffectiveness and/or injury. Regardless, this model requires starters effectively pitching at least 2 rotations through the batting order, 18 outs on average minimally, and, absolutely zero weak links in the BP. No Joe Smith's allowed.

Welcome to the TD ship WhenWillWeBeatNY. Hope you enjoy the trip, though you may need a dramamine from time to time keeping up with the corny jokes and bad metaphors. All in a days work at TD.... Liking your positivity about Twins' flexibility right now....if nothing else, it will be an exciting winter for a change, and hopefully, an active one for the Twins. Interesting take on the roster choices. Love the Bassitt addition. He's Berrios before Toronto: Reliable, Durable, solid numbers, not always great, but always there, takes the ball every turn and can shut down anybody on any day. I think the competition will be high for him. If Twins could snag him that would be a great get.

This Twins front office hasn't shown any willingness to extend relievers,... I think we're past the point of deferring to this front office's stubborn adherence to a status quo that hasn't gotten the job done. Spot-on Nick. Well written and argued. It's not an overly critical take. Fair to both sides but truthful about the disastrous consequnces of trading RP. The value lost in the intervening 5 years since the trade is irreplaceable, regardless of what happens with Celestino/Alcala. This trade is the poster boy for bad decisions based in rigid ideas about roster and budget distribution. BP's need attention, that is, money-,committment, in this era of mlb. Twins are behind on this. And dare I mention the overall Minnesota budget could actually approach, not match, but get closer, to Houstonian-level budgets?

Rogers is interesting, he's so specialized and limited, but we have seen how effective he potentially is within those limits. Fulmer acquitted himself well here, he would be a fine addition, hard no on May at this point.... I'm with Roger: My hope and heart says they take a serious run at Montero, but my head says we will be picking through some bargain bin leftovers and hoping some of the current roster develops.

Good on these guys??, great to see there are still people trying to make a positive difference.

The Twins enter 2023 much the same as 2022, in competitive rebuild mode. I have them concentrating on developing quality and depth in the pitching side. The headliner move of the offseason is trading Miranda, Sabato, and Varland for Pablo Lopez, who slots in at #2 in the rotation. Maeda begins the season in a swing role, but by mid-season could be stretched into a starting role if injuries arise, especially Mahle. I am very nervous about Mahle, but SWR at AAA will be first up for injuries and single game fills. The Twins finally invest in the BP, signing Montero ( I know, I know, fat chance, but this is dreaming), and Ottavino to add veteran quality depth. Minor league options remain in the wings as a possible BP fill as well. The big sign in FA is Brandon Nimmo, whose flexibility allows him to effectively platoon with Buck and take RF on a regular basis. Larnach begins the year in LF, but Wallner is in the wings at AAA. I decided to begin the season with Kiriloff as DH, but essentially he can platoon 1B with Arraez. If his wrist is still balky in the spring, Wallner could slot into DH, or flyer-type FA signing to fill DH. The Brewers will let Narvaez walk, so we pony up and he joins Jeffers. I also like Jace Peterson's flexibility in the IF, so he signs and covers Polanco's inevitable IL trips, and could give IKF days off in some form of SS rotation. Gordon functions as basically a 5th OF, and more depth for CF. If Celestino falters badly, Wallner waits for a chance to fill. IKF is obtained by trading Kepler, straight up. IKF is a stopgap to Lewis/Lee. Urshela comes back, but is highly tradeable by July if one of Lee/Lewis looks ready for 3B. Ditto IKF. Twins are betting big on a Lee/Lewis combo taking the left side of the infield b 2024. Payroll is at 138M, slightly below budget. Twins could afford to add another 2-3M in salary going into July if needed, potentially another 12-13M if they were to move Urshela. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Kiner-Falefa ($5.00M) LF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Brandon Nimmo ($19.00M) DH: Alex Kiriloff ($0.70M) 4th OF: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Jace Peterson ($3.00M) Backup C: Omar Narvaez ($5.00M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Pablo Lopez ($6.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) RP: Rafael Montero ($9.00M) RP: Adam Ottavino ($5.00M) Payroll is 7.64% under budget

Offer Chief a TD Group Hug. He seems like the touchy-feely type

Totally agreed!!!!

The video was superb, Watching their form cleaning their hands and then setting out that old vat of nacho cheese brought back special memories of the time i got me some of that day(s) old sauce. An explosive experience it was, thought I was s@#!&ing jet fuel the rest of the night. Thanks Volume Services for the memories.

They call that a rebrand? That's no rebrand. A rebranded cap is when the TC logo is replaced by Minnie and Paul, no longer smilingly shaking hands across the river, but instead tatto'd up, wearing black leather and chains, each holding a severed bloody head of a player from the opposing team of the day, while standing on the remains of the uniformed lifeless, headless corpse underfoot. That's right, caps and helmets specific to every other MLB team. And, the new scoreboard offers a special feature of The Taunting Frenchman randomly appearing throughout the game, hurling obscene, deeply offensive personal invective at particular players from the other team. Mock their SO's, BB's and errors, even their HR trots. They'll think twice b4 swinging for the fences again. Hire copywriters dedicated to creating fresh content during every home game in real time. Customers would stick around for the 9th even during blowouts, just to hear and see what comes next. Thats a rebrand. Break with Minnesota nice bs. Lake Wobegone no more! Set a bold, radical new direction. Blaze a new path in leveraging the possibilities of a new scoreboard. Capture der zeitgeist with a dramatic new cap and helmet logo, let the image say all that needs to be said about how serious the new-look Twins will be in 2023 and beyond.

If this roster was better filled out, yes. As it stands now, no, its not worth it. This strikes me as the kind of trade a team on the cusp makes. Twins arent there yet.

Nice story Seth, I forgot he was a rule 5 guy. Or that TD has been around since 2013. He was a great catch by the Twins. Or maybe better said catch and release. He was too big for Twins boat. What a shortsighted decision it was to move him. Twins didnt need that kind of good! But it certainly was a great career move for him. Congrats to RP for his part in history last night.

Stats say Correa was an appreciably better player than Jeremy Pena this season. But Houston was still willing to let him walk and swap out Pena as their SS. Pena's reg season results were good, but Correa was better individually. But the Astros won more games in reg season than '21, won another pennant, and Pena was alcs mvp. For 34.3 million less than Correa made. Its still a team game, Somebody needs Correas talent to help them fill out a roster filled with championship caliber potential. It wont be the Twins or Astros. The Astros team functions quite well with his replacement. Correa by himself does not move the needle much for Twins. They are just slightly better than awful with him. Yankees or Dodgers are good fits, with legit needs to fill out their teams. Twins need to find a few more of their own Jeremy Pena's to make spending on the Correa's of the world worth it.

Buck has been hurt stretching for 1B, sliding into 2nd, rounding 3rd, in the batters box, anywhere in proximity of the dugout, sliding in left, diving in right, crashing in center, putting his underwear on in the morning, shaving, stepping out of his car, and reading in his recliner. Doesnt matter what position, he's getting hurt. Twins have to plan on Buck going down 80 games per year. Ergo, they need a platoon plan for CF. Somebody, not Kepler, is CF 1B. Buck is 1A, until he's hurt.

Agreed, maybe Dodgers have the midas touch of late, but thats a quibble. Elite guys are hard to find, harder still to sustain elite results over several seasons and by then they are outrageously expensive. All that said, Twins history says they have been poor at finding guys who can lead a staff ..the stopper you trust with the most critical games and moments. Morris '91, vintage Santana, Sweet Music at his prime....seems to be a combo of skill evaluating and developing, timing with trades or FA's, appetite for risk, and dumb luck.

And dont do extensions at market rate values for anyone mid-tier or above. Tends to narrow the field a bit.

Rodon would be nice but cant see him coming here. Ditto DeGrom. Wonder if Maeda might help them compete for Senga? He's probably getting north of Bassit in AAV, but that should be doable for Twins. Go all in pursuing Montero for BP.

I wonder if the crux of the matter is how one defines “should”…How much should the Twins ownership spend? All I can look at is the evidence that is public. I think they can and should spend more than they do, and spend more creatively than they do. What's happened in the NL West is instructive. Until last season, the AZ and SD payrolls were pretty close. In the last 3 seasons, SD has chosen to make the qualitative leap forward. The W-L records speak loudly. Spending is a part of their solution. AZ is now in the “hope-for-the-future.” Nothing is guaranteed in either model, but I would rather bet on SD for the foreseeable future. I’m not saying the Twins should replicate SD’s model, or their spend levels. But they should take note of what is possible with a more aggressive approach. That’s not to say I reject the developmental way. I love the idea of developing talent in the traditional way. Love it. The problem for the Twins is that they do not do this very well. There is nothing happening right now to suggest this is going to dramatically change. And the process of drafting or gaining talent and then developing that talent into productive MLB players is an expense that doesn’t show in the payroll. What is the true cost to scout, evaluate, select, develop, and retain a player into a productive major leaguer? How much money should MLB org’s commit to sustain a developmental process that promises a 90% failure rate? How much is actually needed to build up an elite developmental system? Or for that matter just to develop prospects to the point they are tradeable? Trading prospects is just another form of spending, along with forfeiting the assets your R and D money has developed to that point. All of which creates the need to re-stock the internal prospect pool. It’s a vicious circle for teams stuck in the middle. The Twins spent a lot of “prospect capital” this season for veteran pitching suspects that are not moving the needle much. Nick Nelson’s article today on the SP options belabors the point. All those prospects for two SP’s, and we are still talking about the need for more? It is one thing to say talent should be developed internally, and yet another to actually produce competitive rosters and tradeable prospects year in and out. Since moving to TF the Twins have been spending in the mid to lower levels of FA markets to flesh out a “core” that never quite seems able to make the qualitative leap from mediocrity to legitimate contending. It can be argued that the Twins have been “in the playoffs” and so have been successful. To me 0-18 is not a sign of success. I think they can afford to try a more aggressive approach.

Yeah, I had to double-take 1/2 way through the post....having some nostalgia for Graterol, Littel Chargois....hindsight says they would have been nice BP pieces this year. BP guys are so hard to predict year to year.

Yes, but we didnt need him Chief, what with that talent-laden BP.....

I'm with Snoopy, just chillin on top of the house, just fill my food bowl and scratch my ears once in awhile ....

Thanks. I really appreciate the back and forth, it helps me to refine arguments and reconsider my points of view, and like you, I think TD is a great place for the conversation. These guys have put together one of the best sites on the web, and its great fun to be part of it, even when I spend so much time complaining. I know exactly what you are talking about with that one golf shot that keeps you coming back for more....the sound of that 30 footer hitting bottom for a birdie-assuring another round even though the other 17 were crooked #'s! Then there was the nice straight drive in the middle of the fairway that magically disappeared under piles of fall leaves, probably still hasnt been found to this day.......golf is a funny game. But hard to give it up, like the Twins, even though it drives me crazy most days. So yeah, thanks for your time in working through this. I agree, it took SD years to get things together after the sale of the team. Admittedly, they inherited a middling team...one Jason Bartlett was still taking up roster space at that time. 2012 was the same year the Dodgers sold for 2B. They wasted little time establishing their methods. The NL West is a different beast than AL Central. The greatest difference between SD and Twins is their divisional situation. A fairer comp for Twins with NL West clubs is probably Arizona, where they are stuck in the mud, like us, and will have an even harder time digging out given the competition in their division. Their farm system churn and long FA contracts may catch up with them eventually. But that is where MLB is at....market rate is not only dollars, but term on the contract. Its the cost to swim in those waters. I hate long term contracts. Hate them. Should be 5 years max. I dont care about capping salaries as much as capping terms, but that aint happening. I think, and I might be wrong, but I think the Twins have been gun shy ever since the Mauer contract. Whatever the reason, they wont pay market rate, so the other option is to try and thread the needle to find the sweet spot of "acceptable risk of dollars and length-as defined and limited by profit protecting budgets" , with equivalent value in the mid to lower levels of performance in the player pool. And then hoping that one of those value contracts performs exponentially above the money you just doled out. The Twins Way. Blow, It. Up. What does work for me with SD is the vision. A commitment to producing quality, by leveraging the money....as you say, the spending paves over many mistakes. Money creates broader margin for error in building/adapting rosters, and therefore greater flexibility in problem solving particular roster issues. Or, there is the Tampa Bay way.....but no, I dont think that would be a good thing here. I'm glad to hear you find some satisfaction in the Twins' recent years playoff appearances. Its hard for me to take much satisfaction in this though. I envy those among us who can, I would probably feel more settled about each season if I could. But Oh-and-Eighteen? Really? Statistically, this seems well nigh impossible to pull off...what are the chances? That should light a fire under the butts of every seat in ownership/management. What an embarrassment. I really want something more from them. The AL Central has not offered much excellence since KC won it in 15. Potential, always....fulfillment, pretty much never. Cleveland just went through a season where they shaved 15 percent off their budget and still won it going away, or maybe better said, happened to be the team that didnt lose the most. They werent even trying to win it when the season started, or, at the trade deadline. And still.....the AL Central is just kind of sad right now. It is not unreasonable to think the Twins would have zero playoff appearances of late if they had lived in the NL West. And yes, they, SD, have traded a bunch of talent. Swing big, hit some, lose some. Keeping Turner would have saved them a ton, until next year anyhow, and the others you point out are all valid. But what kind of organization develops that volume of a high end talent in that window of time. Nothing like that has happened here in the years I've followed the Twins. So they use their R and D to trade for established players, sign the FA to fortify the roster, and roll the dice in trying to keep pace with the LAD. I like the ballsiness, the vision, and the competence they have demonstrated to pull it off. They could have flopped and looked like total fools. But there is method to the madness it seems, and at least for now, its worked to their advantage. So here's a question for the Twins brain trust, in case Jim P is following this thread. And Jim, I graciously offer this free of charge: Have you considered putting Bill P in your role? He would bring a totally different approach to things, trust me. He makes movies. He knows vision, and what it takes to bring vision to reality. He understands the calculus of risk-taking with capital. And he has a proven track record of hitting some home runs in the Big Boy world of Hollywood. The bankers have had their chance ever since Carl bought the team. Give the visionary/idealist a shot at running things. Maybe this is how you re-load at the top. You would still be heavily involved. You are not out of the loop at all. But a new set of eyeballs is needed internally folks. Give it a go fellas, what do you have to lose? Your fanbase is willing to roll with lots of mistakes, trial and error, and misfires. But one thing that quenches the passion of fans real quick is the gerbil wheel of taking timid actions every year, which only masks fear and indifference in the face of the long odds our team faces year in and year out. Be bold. Look to beat the odds, not game the system. Try something different. For once. Thanks for listening everyone. I feel better now.............

I frame the issue from the perspective of investment, rather than spending. It may sound semantic, but for a business like MLB, it seems to me the perspective Seidler speaks from when he says cost is 10% of what he is thinking about. It's the venture capitalist vs. the banker, as Wabene's earlier post pointed out regarding Seidler's approach. SD, designated as a "small market" for the entirety of its existence, has reformulated its entire culture because of a shift in vision. It had to come from somewhere, and Seidler seems to be the driver. I would like to see what is produced on the field by the Twins management treated similarly, investing, not expensing. That's it really. Throwing money at the biggest names is of course not going to solve their issues. It's creating a culture that does not de facto exclude spending at high levels, but seeks to direct spending as an investing principal directed to produce a quality, competitive team, all the time....that is what I ask. Analyze, plan, budget, all of that is great, but do not allow externals to define and limit the approach to building a roster, and accept the risk that comes with making judgment calls on future performance of the players. Win some, lose some, but give it a go at least. I think that would give people hope that something is different, and ownership/management is authentically and fully committed to producing quality. If not for the love of the game, which I think Seidler has in spades, at least out of recognition that MLB is not a business like the others in the asset portfolio. I dont begrudge the Pohlad's their desire and need to turn a profit. I also dont think Seidler is just accepting operating losses annually in SD just for shits and giggles either. He still runs a profitable business, without a doubt. I cannot find any quotes where he plays the victim card of his market size, or looks for systematic change in MLB macro economics. He just has a very different conception of how to define and achieve profit. Profit includes a legitimately competitive team, a forward looking organization, and a fan base that can buy into the direction and effort of the franchise. 30 years of futility, a record 0-18 run that should be the shame of all at One Twins Way and call to arms for the whole organization, continued floundering around the margins of respectability....man, if ownership cant see the need for fundamental changes within their models, I cant find any hope in that.

Excellent clarifications Riverbrain, your points help hone arguments more to the point. The market size issue is not dispositive as they would say in debate society, it's a guide, an imperfect one at that. My point was that it is one piece of a the puzzle, most of which we do not get to see, in trying to understand the opaqueness of MLB economics. I am pretty certain that there are other "mid-market" franchises asking the same questions being asked here. Revenue streams are expanding, so it will be really interesting to see what effect the new advertising policies will have, and especially the move into the sports betting markets. Will local TV deals become secondary sources to the potential revenue in these areas: as Buck is rounding the bases, we could hear: "Today's Buxton home-run trot is brought to you by Wheaties, the breakfast of people who can hit baseballs 400 feet. Touch 'em all Buck.!"...Uni's adorned with promotional decals? betting lines posted during TV broadcasts? Whatever happens, it will hit bottom lines in a positive way, but will that translate into more aggressive funding for acquisition and development of players at all levels of the org? There is no reason why it could not both expand owners margins, and improve the org's ability to develop and retain MiLB talent, and commit to high level FA talent. My fear is that the Twins will continue to settle for middling, half-way solutions.....and then blame the fans for not supporting the cause better. Surreal. Just surreal.