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nicksaviking

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Everything posted by nicksaviking

  1. nicksaviking
    1987 vs. 1991
  2. nicksaviking
    The entire league is a 5 inning guy now. Again, there were only four pitchers who threw 200 innings last year. The reason pitchers aren't going deeper into games isn't because they can't hold up, they aren't going deeper into games because of organizational prerogative. If innings pitched is a thing you're interested in, it seems odd to ding the guy who's increasing his workload while the rest of the pitchers in the league are decreasing their workloads.
  3. nicksaviking
    Robbie Ray averaged over 6 IP a start last year. He lead the league in IP in fact. Only four pitchers threw 200 innings last year, all in the NL; I think the league has decided that quality is better than quantity.
  4. nicksaviking
    I thought Berrios made it pretty clear he didn't want an extension and he certainly wasn't going to take a discount.
  5. nicksaviking
    I'd go for Ray, the strikeouts are real and proven and it sounds like his delivery and approach changes are sustainable. Seems like he might even have room to grow. I'd be on board for rolling the dice on Syndergaard and Rodon also. I'm not sure about Gausman, I'm always hesitant about pitchers leaving SF. I'd probably sign him if they can't make the above guys work, but he seems just as likely as not to turn back into a pumpkin. Hard pass on Stroman, the Twins need an arm that can dominate. Good results, but he still needs his defenders to make most of his outs for him. He'd be a good #3 on a playoff team, but the Twins would pay him like an ace. Even if 2022 isn't the year to win a WS, it would still be a good idea to get a big time pitcher, since the idea would be that the guy would be at the front of the rotation for several years. Get a big arm now, trade for someone else exciting and play some professional baseball in 2022. Then do something bold the following year to get serious.
  6. nicksaviking
    I just don't see how anyone can expect this team to be an actual contender if Michael Pineda is the hypothetical game 1 or 2 starter in a playoff game. That would be just more of the same underdog situation this team has always put itself in come playoff time. And I don't think this team can acquire three other pitchers with more upside than him AND pay him 8-10M. The team you seem to be promoting does not sound like a contending team, which is fine, because again, my only issue is suggesting this team is a legit WS hopeful with Michael Pineda in the top half of the rotation.
  7. nicksaviking
    Completely agree about Pineda, you do know what he will give you, and it's overall decent pitching, but being safe is not how this team is going to go from 73 wins to 100 wins. The Twins lack high end pitching. The odds of the other three guys working out are obviously lower, but they are high velocity guys with upside. Even if slim, they have a chance to be a top of the rotation arm; Pineda basically has no chance at that. I've felt the most likely way to success is for this team is to take a step back and develop the young arms, so I'm not against playing it safe with Pineda. I just don't want to hear about them pretending to be "contenders" if they do. If they want to make a big, bold attempt at a quick turn-around, they need to sign arms who all have the potential to end up at the front of the rotation. Because they have none of those, and a contender would have three or four of those kinds of pitchers.
  8. nicksaviking
    I think they need to cut Pineda free. I think if they seriously want to make the playoffs Pineda can be no more then the #4. If they actually want to be a contender, he needs to be #5. But that $8M figure seems accurate if not too low, and that would almost certainly make him the Twins #2; #3 if they’re lucky. They need to stay away from that caliber free agent. Go all out for a top guy, cross their fingers and get a high ceiling bounce back guy like Syndergaard, Foltynewicz or Paxton, make a high ceiling trade and then do a low money crapshoot. If they want to play it safe and pay 8-10M for a safe but zero ceiling guy like Pineda to bridge the gap to put near the top of the rotation, fine, but then I don’t want to hear any phony baloney about ‘contending’ next year. Be upfront and call it a rebuild.
  9. nicksaviking
    I hope the Twins do get some solid relief free agents this off season, but whether they work out or not is maybe 50/50. For the most part these guys are terribly unreliable year to year; if they were reliable, they’d probably be starters. Anyway, I wouldn’t use last year’s numbers to make my decision on these guys. I’d evaluate velocity, pitch usage and other peripherals, but I wouldn’t trust these guys to repeat what they did in 2021 any more than I’d trust a burrito I bought at a gas station.
  10. nicksaviking
    He definitely wouldn't be the worst free agent they could sign. But there will be better fits so a reunion just seems like it would be for sentimentality sake. I'd probably be open to keeping the bench coach job warm for him when he's ready for his second career though.
  11. nicksaviking
    Time will tell for sure, but I always get the impression that when it comes to the shortstop position, most pundits and fans only see the players' defense as a pass/fail proposition. But it isn't black or white, there's plenty of scenarios where a below average defender is acceptable. I mean statistically, half of the starting shortstops in the league are going to be below average. No one wants Jorge Polanco as a starting shortstop, but the team did win 100 freakin' games with him at the position. It's not ideal but it's not like it's going to destroy the season. Obviously, aim for higher quality defense than Polanco, but I don't want the team to get so caught up in the defensive side of things that they don't regularly put the optimal offense into the lineup.
  12. nicksaviking
    Semien has been better than Baez each of the past three years. Much, much better. Semein has actually been the best SS in the league by fWAR since 2019, which includes his subpar 2020 campaign. Plus, Semien basically never misses a game.
  13. nicksaviking
    I honestly think the fit is pretty close to backwards from what is listed. Baez and Story strike out a heck of a lot. I'd sign them if the others are unavailable, but I'd be way more hesitant on those two. Heck, a month from now I might be completely against any kind of long term deal for Baez. He's definitely last on my wish list of this group; he's very inconsistent, likely because of the strikeout problem and his below average ability to get on base. His career .307 OBP seems destined to make a fanbase frustrated. Edit: No need to ponder it over for a month. I've talked myself out of wanting anything to do with a big contract for Baez.
  14. nicksaviking
    Most of these guys will cost a lot, but as far as their contracts becoming an issue for the team? The risk is low. Outside of Buxton, there really don't seem to be any internal players who have a chance at needing a big time extension in the next half decade. And if you'd prefer to spend money on OTHER free agents, you'll be waiting a couple of years. The 2022-23 class looks brutal. Berrios is probably the headline FA pitcher right now. Bogaerts and Turner are FA, but even if they make it to free agency, bidding on two SS instead of five is going to be an even bigger challenge. I expect the Twins to seriously chase these guys, but since it takes both parties to want to make a deal, they can't just lock on to one of them.
  15. nicksaviking
    I agree, but abiding by Point 1 and Point 2 together will almost certainly mean this team will not be contending next year. They need to find starters, and we simply cannot expect to them be a championship caliber team if they are starting three rookies. Absolutely pitch the young guys, but don't expect them to hit the ground running.
  16. nicksaviking
    If I’m honest, my first thought was “Ugh, just get the real prospects up already.” Then I read Betsy Helfand’s piece and this one, cried a bit and realized I still love this game.
  17. nicksaviking
    Risky or not risky, the Twins almost always have done free agency the same way. We have X amount of dollars to spend and plan to use it on free agents to fill xxxxxx roles. How about just once, they try something different. We have X amount of dollars to spend and plan to use it on Xxx. We will fill the remaining holes with the internal options even if they are untested. Internal options, who let's be frank, may not pan out, but likely are no more risky than the desperate aging vets we'd end up singing in late January anyway.
  18. nicksaviking
    I don't disagree with your take on signing one long term asset and developing the young pitchers to see what we have. But they've been signing multiple one-year, stop-gap starters for two years now; they should have had a blueprint to putting together a long-term sustainable rotation at least since 2019. Winging it for the last several years, particularly years they were winning the division seems unorganized and reckless.
  19. nicksaviking
    Right, in addition to giving out regrettable contracts for average to below average pitchers, the danger with trying to immediately fix the awful rotation into a contending rotation would be once again not developing their own young pitchers. Giolito and Cease were absolutely brutal early in their careers. Are the Twins expecting their top young arms to hit the ground running? They'd be foolish to assume that will be the case. But you aren't going to be a contender if you're giving 20-30 starts to a couple of young guys who put up Giolito's 2018, Cease's 2019 or Jose Berrios' 2016 seasons. They organization is going set the club back years if they do 2022 wrong out of desperation.
  20. nicksaviking
    Yeah, they certainly need to START to build a rotation next year, but being a real contender? Not likely. I mean has anyone looked at Chicago's rotation? They can't match up with that in one offseason. This is going to require long-term planning, which I'm not sure is even in the blueprint stage yet.
  21. nicksaviking
    I really hope it's Petty. The Twins just need that kind of power arm. They've been flat out awful finding and developing them, but they have to continue to go to the well in search of front line starters. Still, I'll bet Noah Miller. Not sure why but I think he'll start turning heads soon. Also, I don't think Lewis should be written off for next season. While the Twins have not figured out how to manage the pitching injuries, their last two high end offensive prospects to have TJ surgery while in the minors, still debuted the following year. I know Kirilloff didn't appear until the playoffs, but that's still pretty good considering he went from AA to TJ surgery then to the majors without any additional MiLB season. Sano debuted in the majors the July after recovering from his procedure; he also skipped AAA prior to his initial call up.
  22. nicksaviking
    It's always exciting to see the Twins grab these young athletes. The organization was on a real roll with international free agents about a decade ago; they used to make up a huge part of the Twins prospect lists and they seemed to pan out more often than the states-side players. That pipeline has pretty much dried up since then though. I guess Bill Smith can put a feather in his cap in that regard.
  23. nicksaviking
    Fantastic article. Thanks for this great information.
  24. nicksaviking
    Well I always assumed the Twins were reluctant to give out long term free agent deals because they were planning on giving out long term free agent deals to Berrios and Buxton. So since that doesn’t appear to be in the cards, there’s seriously no reason they shouldn’t chase Seager, Correa, Semien, Story or Baez.
  25. nicksaviking
    It's not mob thinking, it's the acceptance of science. The earth is also round and evolution is real. Just because rational people are loudly and vehemently telling the brainwashed to wake up, doesn't make them a mob.
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