Wizard11

The funny thing about projection systems from “experts” is they always seem to have the last years division winners winning their division again. Seems silly to even play the games when the outcome is foretold. 🤣 I like the approach the author took to deconstruct the underpinnings of success vs the lazy take of projecting Team WAR which is heavily influenced by recency bias.

Richie, I re-read my post and I realize I left out the rather important caveat that they have not played their positions so far this spring. No doubt your research will uncover that to be accurate

For Baldelli it has to be a bit concerning that his projected 1st, 2nd, and 3rd base starting infielders as well as the CF have yet to play their positions in a game. With injuries to Gordon, Larnach, Alcala, and any others it is a bit ominous for a manager who needs his team to perform over .500. Cue Jaws music….

Good job disparaging the FO Kornhaber but why no mention of how Baldelli is screwing this up by pulling EJ after 3 at bats? More genius spreadsheet management.

Just mo Cheap Pohlads man

OK, that is definitely my favorite Stu ever. Absolutely freakin’ hysterical

Love this article and the point about the aesthetics of baseball. Watching Arraez was just fun. His animation, bat control, and joy were fun. A rare craftsman in this age of baseball. Yet I do think the Twins improved the team by trading him

I have the Twins down for 60 to 100 wins.

The Twins will open up 3 roster spots when they can move Paddack, Canterino, and Lewis to the 60 day IL. That bodes well for JB having sometime to prove himself. To me the bigger issue is if he starts slow and they wind up needing his roster spot he is likely lost to waivers. Given the potentially short horizon we may be better served by establishing him as a viable reliever (or not) early so as to be able to make a better determination on keeping him. He could move back to the rotation once it is clear that committing a roster spot to him makes sense. Regardless of role if he stinks it up again the first 2 months he will join other washed out prospects on the scrap heap.

I appreciate Ash’s pushback on the endless negative narratives on Rocco and the FO. i think people often dislike what they don’t understand. Rocco has a better career winning % than Gardenhire or Kelly. Same for the FO vs Ryan. They are not responsible for the majority of the 18 game post season losing streak. (This information can be found on spreadsheets 🤣) I do get the fan fatigue with the post season failures. It is soul crushing for devoted fans. It is likely we can all agree on that point. Winning fix’s everything. It erases concerns about lineups, pitching usage, base running strategies, rest days, etc.. winning is always the answer…the rest is just noise

Most likely Correa as his annual salary will have dropped quite bit from the first 6 years

Will you eat crow if Arraez’s knees blow out and he is lost for the season?

Actually 3 open spots as Canterino will go on the 60 day

IMO, any team signing Bauer is giving a big middle finger to women, I think that is a much more significant point then how he would or would not fit in a clubhouse.

Canterino is out for the year due to TJ surgery

Brock, I was struck by your super fandom and the similarities to Sarah Langs. Her tagline of “baseball is the best” touch’s at the core of how many of us feel about the game. I have lived in San Diego for 20 years and grew up in MN. My 3 favorite teams are in this order, the Twins, Padres, and whoever is playing the Yankees. For my part I appreciate your passion and ongoing work for many fans to support the game we love. Our world seems to have an over abundance of partisan mental midgets focused on being divisive. I think what you are doing and contributing is awesome. “Baseball is the best”

@Roger, I agree on the net difference to Correa. Unfortunately this is where a conflict of interest comes in with the agent. Boras and Co get 5% of that $65mm delta. No doubt he deemphasized net income and focused Correa more on the greater endorsement possibilities and “winning potential”. I have worked with NFL and NHL players. I have never worked with MLB players as the agents have insulated them from outside sources of input from the beginning of their professional careers. The best agents do bring impressive resources but their guidance is influenced by their own agendas.

Hi Roger, yes that is still how it works. You essentially pay income tax on 100% of your income in your home state. Correa will also pay state income tax prorata in the 20 or so other states he earns income in. This total sum is then a deduction from his CA tax. The problem with making LT residence decisions based on state tax law is that tax laws are written in water. For example FA’s that signed LT with a CA team in 2015 were probably shocked the next year when CA’s top bracket went way up AND that is was no longer federally deductible. Their $200,000 per year property tax on their mansion was essentially no longer deductible. In 2016 when their spouse became disillusioned with the reducing spend budget and divorced said player, the alimony was no longer deductible. Tax rules are ever changing particularly for the highest paid employees. Moreover they are W2 so no hiding of income in a 1099 structure

A number of fans have listed their view of the 4-5 free agents we should still sign. Given that the roster is already at 40 who exactly gets dropped to accommodate Andrus, Eovalvdi, Duval, Mancini, Roger’s, etc? At this point in the season each FA nudges someone out. We still have not heard who will lose their roster spot for the Gallo signing. I would guess barring a trade it will be Contreras. After the Judge and Turner signings the Twins should have been able to realize the market had spoke and that plan A was highly improbable. Even most fans could see that. That was the moment to rapidly pivot and pursue other free market talent. I have been amused by the notion that the FO and ownership were “pretending” to chase Correa only as a PR move. If that is the case they clearly suck at PR. Keep Pagan, Sign Gallo, trade Arraez? PR? They are lousy at it.

The caveat to every hopeful Twins projection is “if they are healthy”. The fan in me wants to believe that Mahle, Maeda, Lewis, Buxton, Gray, Ober, Kiriloff, Larnach, Jeffers, Polanco, Arraez, Alcala, etc. are all healthy. The problem the logical part of me struggles with the question “When was the last time any team had this number of injured players all return to peak performance?”.

As a SD resident my take is that the Padres would be more likely to trade Tatis than Kim. It sounds crazy but at this time Tatis is loathed locally and the Padres are well past their comfort level on payroll. Kim is loved by local fans for his all out effort and cheerful attitude. I don’t think either will be traded though.

I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised that the second comment on this thread found a way to bash this signing. TD comment section has become a real downer. To the haters I would kindly request that you save it for things that have actually occurred. It is hard to understand the need to register a potential “I told you so”.

No one gets dropped from the 40 man. They had an open spot.