twinstalker

The Royals were LUCKY. They had a good team. They had dominant relief you can't really hope for when even when you sign the supposed best of the best. But to get through the playoff maze, they were also very lucky. You can follow a model that creates a strong team and strong organization, but then you need a lot of luck to win. People who win poker tournaments actually build their organization, and develop strong play. But unless they also get very lucky, they will not win. There are cases where not so good poker players win by making high powered moves and, of course, getting lucky. But what you don't want to focus on is that one winner. What you need to focus on is that a hundred bad poker players tried that strategy, and so the fact that one of them had a chance at the end against all the good players who developed their organizations doesn't mean anything. That the one bad poker player then got lucky doesn't mean anything, because it's going to happen from time to time just by chance. You need to be a player that is consistently vying for the final table. That doesn't depend on luck or wild ass plays that by chance work out just to get there (and one bad player will usually get there because there's so many who take those shots). But either way, you need a lot of luck, and since a lot of that is out of your control, the best chance to win it all is to be there more often. That pop-up player might win, but your best bets are with the ones who are strong time after time. Kansas City had some foundations to build a good organization. They had a lot of top picks. When things started to stabilize, they, just like one of many "bad" poker players, took extreme risks to get to the final table (the playoffs). They made it, others with similar strategies didn't. After 30 years they invested everything and got there twice, and proceeded to get lucky. Then they went right back to the bottom, and have incredibly little hope of doing anything again in a long, long, time. I would much rather the Twins take the Indians' path. Always, with a few exceptions, have that ability to be there at the end. Make plays that count but don't take away from the basis, the foundation. Then, at some point, the luck will turn our way. Please don't mistake that with anything Terry Ryan did, because he never made the plays that count, nor did he have the foundation this FO has. The fact that the Indians haven't won in the last 25 years is due to one thing only: luck. Since we can't buy a championship like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Cubs, our best bet is keep the foundation, make it stronger, and add when the opportunity avails itself. The fact that it didn't these last six weeks is hardly a concern in the big picture.

As I read these comments, I get the sense that some of you people think Falvine wants to fail at their job. That they'd rather unnecessarily save a few dollars than succeed. I do not have time to read crap like that. Disagreeing with not overpaying Ryu is fine. Being bummed that Wheeler, MadBum, Cole, and Strasburg were NEVER going to come here is fine. Thinking Keuchel is something he's not is even okay. Misunderstanding the benefit/detriment of giving big money to average pitching is maybe understandable. But the comments here that imply Falvine has some agenda other than winning championships are both laughable and sad.

Certainly, the last thing Gordon has ever been is "can't miss." Jorge Polanco is a bad MLB shortstop, but if you want to make it worse for the Twins, put Gordon there instead. Further, Gordon will not hit for years. Do you not think the Twins would have dealt him by now if anyone would give up something? Putting my Gordon love aside for the moment, I think Kirilloff (especially) and Larnach will be up this year. Kirilloff may be the 1B solution and may be ready somewhat immediately (after a necessary month at AAA to work on, um, defense and fundamentals and maturing). And I think that's why the Twins are reluctant to trade him. Larnach looks to be a suitable and apt replacement for Rosario. I'm sort of in the camp where you don't trade away your prospects. You scout and develop them better. You save your money until it gives you the opportunity to make a big and obvious splash. Maybe that splash is next year instead of this year due to bad ju ju this offseason--sometimes not everything is in your and your wallet's control. In the meantime, use the this-year $$$ to make small upgrades.

Nothing in Blankenship's profile amounts to anything other than fringe major leaguer. The Twins will have to have a true breakthrough player, unlike Arraez, to surprise in MLB like Arraez. And therefore, I don't see it on the roster. As far as a guy who could provide some initial excitement like Arraez (who I believe is the real deal), Brent Rooker might fool us for a while.

If the Tigers weren't willing to take Wander Javier and do the mlb roster/rehab thing for a year, perhaps we should reset our expectations for him. As for Jax, I've not understood how anyone thought he would be protected. I see no "apparent" upside, and the Twins now have about twenty pitchers in the minors that are probably ahead of him in some way. Not all guys who needed to be protected, but the point being, who cares? Luis Rijo I thought would be taken, probably attesting to my ignorance of what's good-looking and what's not. His K rate also is not excellent, though I thought it possible someone would see potential in that stat for him. Heh, potential for increasing a stat that is merely a predictive measure...that's stretching it for sure.

I'm not sure it's as interesting as you think. Kind of like doing a countdown to the number one prospect. Much more interesting the other direction, where it's wide open. I mean, if you want a poll, do a poll. You're likely to get more "relevant" comments using that format.

Generally, the "this year" of the multi year would be about the same as they would get in arbitration. Your scenario doesn't affect things at all. However, the more interesting scenario is if in the middle of the season or at the deadline, they want to take on a big contract. Let's say the Cubs are slightly under .500 and want to get out from under Darvish's contract. That's about $7 million at the deadline, I think, plus the issues of his contract and those other ones you've signed, who are more often than not going to be on multi-year deals.

I thought Celestino was a virtual lock the way he crush the ball midseason. I pass on Raley and Blank, neither of whom I see as an eventual regular. Rijo and Javier? Well, Rijo for sure is a bad decision, and Javier, if you're trying to sneak him through, is, too. But they may just feel Javier isn't any good. Unless teams know something I don't about these guys, Rijo is gone for sure and Javier might well be. We'll see. I hope as we're cutting Travis Blankenhorn and Rijo is becoming a great prospect, Falvine will ask themselves what the the hell they were thinking. As much as I love the front office, they've made some head-shaking decisions. Also, how in the world does Raley stand out? He seems so AAAA.

Just to note: Anibal had fixed himself prior to joining the Twins. The Twins just didn't have enough faith that was the case and let him go when they needed his spot on the 40. But becoming horrible and finding a fix is pretty much Anibal's whole career in a nutshell.

Archer for Colina? Really? smh Ben Cherington is smart enough that he's either going to try to fix Archer himself or, and this is a thing, he's going to realize if he has to sell that another team can probably fix him, and so he has to get an actual real and close prospect for him. I mean, he needs to pull a Glasnow or a Meadows just to keep the fans from storming the stadium with torches. The Mets GM who wouldn't sell Syndergaard for anything less than the world took that stance because he knew Thor would be fixed by smart teams like the new Twins, and he'd look really bad. It must be a sort of hell to know you don't really deserve your job, and that because of that, it could end at any time.

Continuing on from the Arraez discussion...the Twins should lock him up and buy out FA years before he gets too expensive! I mean, did you see that catch and homer! (Disclaimer: folks here need to prep themselves for the experience of having Boras clients--Lewis and Kirilloff are two and won't be selling their FA years)

Yeah, I don't think anyone in their right mind is going to suggest otherwise.

So what you're saying is that it's impossible for Arraez to be anything but great going forward? First of all, he could be very average next year, let's say .290/.330/.370. Wouldn't that be a better time, $$$-wise, to extend him? In fact, it would be foolish to offer that kind of production a long-term contract. Do you agree with the point there, that paying him after that kind of season would not be smart? Now, instead, let's say he puts up exactly the number in 2020 that he puts up in 2019 (which is super unlikely because of regression to the mean, a concept that mean mathematically that if the reason you notice someone is because he's an extreme case, a projection of his his future output will have an expected value that is closer to the center of the distribution of which he stands out--that is, you never pay someone long-term for an outstanding season when you don't have to necessarily lock him up). But if in fact he defies all odds and repeats this season, what does that tell you? For one, you are a ton more comfortable that he is close to his average production at that time and have much more of a basis for signing him. It may cost you a few million more, but would you rather pay a few million more or give a huge contract to a mediocre to average player? Using this logic, it might even be better to wait until the third year is over with 2.x years of service time.Then you really have an idea what he's worth, and it's unlikely you're going to make a mistake. Somewhere in this logic, there is an optimal point to pay someone long-term who keeps repeating great stats. At that point, if he hasn't gone south or gotten injured, you pay him, but what we know for sure, absolute sure, is that now, after one partial season, is nowhere near that time. There is far too much for Arraez to lose by not signing what we'll think is a team-friendly contract over the next two years. By refusing he takes the chance of dipping production and injury over four more years of team control without having the security of a long-term contract. That's where the current CBA is friendly toward smart front offices. Hardly anybody makes the big money by waiting anymore. You have to be a Harper or Machado and have stupid teams left to give you a big contract. And stupid teams are going away. So better get the security of a long-term contract while you can get it. That's why Polanco and Kepler took the money, and why Rosario (already) and Buxton (maybe) are making mistakes by not signing. I would be surprised if the Twin even want to talk to Rosario anymore. They'll likely trade him this offseason if they can get something good, or they'll just go through arb the next two years and switch to the next guy up. Meanwhile Eddie loses his chance to play almost all his career with what will be a winning franchise...and lose his chance maybe to latch onto this franchise for life. All for what will likely amount to about the same money or less than the Twins would have been willing to give him.

In all fairness, the names ahead of Arraez are for the most part incredible. I had to get to #11 Senzel before I could make an argument, and then to the Padres at 15 and 16 who are likely limited by their ballpark. After that I had to go all the way down to 25 Isan Diaz to really argue again, and then 26 Cole Tucker might be worse in the long run. There are very good players who debuted this year, and Arraez is not being pissed on because he's #29. That might even be code for what they really think of him! If you think you've got a right to complain, how about #22 Bryan Reynolds? His line this year: 466 ABs .322/.385/.517

I don't know much, but I do know Joe Mauer wasn't hitting in low A ball when he was 22. He was 19 his low A season of 2002.

Unfortunately, the Twins have been getting plenty of rest recently.

LOL. Yeah, I'm thinking Falvey chokes when there's a big game.

Especially considering the juiced ball in AAA, where he dominated.

K rate and low hit rate are not independent. So if one then likely the other. His walk rate is high and that doesn't translate well as one advances.

Wow, love that you did a top 5 list of guys who will never help the Twins. :-)

I don't think worrying about Lewis is unfounded. DC Twins isn't saying Royce Lewis won't be a productive major leaguer. He's saying he won't be a superstar (probably) and his chances of being a star are diminished. All of which is very true. Superstars generally show themselves early and make level jumps easily. Now, there are those who don't, that is true. But the problem with that logic is that virtually everybody doesn't destroy level after level. To think that Royce Lewis has a chance to become one of these rare hitters among all good prospects is to basically have had that hope for him early and just not let it go. I think we're looking at a guy who will come to be as his best chance a first-division regular, along the lines of Kubel, Cuddyer in terms of production relative to league.

While I personally think very little of Nick Gordon as an MLB prospect, apparently the Twins like him more than Sean Poppen. Or perhaps they're very sure Poppen will not be a service time consideration (ever), and Gordon's trade value doesn't decrease because he's getting service time in September. Marlins or Orioles might want to count on him for the next seven years. :-)

And Dobnak. I think guys like Jax are a dime a dozen, but we'll see. These days players are breaking out all over due to data-based learning. The one constant is that pitchers who throw harder are more difficult to hit, all else being equal.

I'm not sure of the scale, so the exact size of this kangaroo is still a mystery to me.

They were. Guy scored from third on an error (on DP turn, so couldn't assume an out), then a hit came thereafter, so guy who would have been on 3rd if not for the error would have scored anyway.