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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. twinstalker
    Also, somewhere someone asked about the lack of excitement or love for Cave. Jake Cave did an okay job this year, certainly a fine performance for what we might have expected, but here's the deal with him. He was dumped by the Yankees. Not the worst thing, but understand what this means. Most other teams dumping him would mean that his chances of steady contribution anywhere are almost nil. The Yankees dumping him doesn't mean that, because the Yankees have stars and really good players. But there's no way that the Yankees just dump a first division starting outfielder. Foremost, another team would easily trade a non-40-man prospect for a first division regular. And they'd probably do the same for a second division regular, if that were basically guaranteed (think Alex Kirilloff's floor. his worst case). Jake Cave's UPSIDE is that of a corner starting OF for a poor baseball team. His age-based stats, advanced and otherwise, state this loudly. He is likely a 4th OF on a mediocre to average team. That's a valuable role, so I don't mean it as a slight, but it's nothing to get excited about, and you don't replace guys with upside with someone like Cave unless it's a very temporary situation. Kepler, Buxton, and even Rosario may not come close to their ceilings, but I would never give up their ABs to someone who's almost certainly an MLB mediocrity. Giving up on Kepler or Buxton in favor of Jake Cave would be exactly the type of mistake the old regime would make (see Aaron Hicks, David Ortiz). I really doubt the new guys are as clueless. Cave was a fine pickup for this team, but if the Twins dropped him from the 40 (don't worry, they won't), I wouldn't blink other than to wonder why we didn't get a little something for him. I'll add: the Yankees would never have dumped Kepler or Buxton. Not a chance in the world.
  2. twinstalker
    I have a comment, but first let me write myself a reminder in my "drafts" folder in my gmail. Hold on, ah yes, "Remember to chastise all those who had the xxxxxxx and audacity to suggest...Buxton, um, might not be a valuable full-time player, especially the article's author, who should know better than to let one totally screwed up season for Buxton influence him completely away from the commonly accepted pre-2018 evaluation among baseballers that Buxton is going to be a star." Yes, let's prepare for him to be a late-inning defensive replacement. And those rumors that he works his ass off to improve, well, either that's the type of thing that doesn't really matter or they're just rumors. Yep, I think I've got the beginning of an email that I could send now, but I'll likely wait on until summer.
  3. twinstalker
    I fully expect Romero to be a wipe-out reliever, a rh Andrew Miller, and he will eventually prove to be most valuable of the three, but Garver is pretty decent at the tourghest position, and that is really valuable. Cave is most likely a fourth outfielder. The rankings are fine, but in terms of what they showed in 2018 and how that portends the Twins future, which is what we should really care about, that would be my order. I can't wait for them to just plop Romero in that role. What I think is likely, though, is that they let him go through the starter motions in the spring, send him down for a couple of months until they're safe, then bring him back as a reliever who does not attain a total of one year service time by end of next year.
  4. twinstalker
    I'm glad you didn't put a period after each letter or they'd be all O.Z.Z.I.E. because god forbid you put two spaces between sentences.
  5. twinstalker
    Time and channel of press conference? Well, fsn I'm sure if televised.
  6. twinstalker
    Nothing is going to be awkward. Molitor won't have any power, he'll just marketing and helping minor leagues this next year, probably. HoF guy talking to youngsters and giving them tips. In 2020 they'll probably even have him at spring training. I could be very wrong here, but didn't they bring in Jeff Pickler to be the manager-in-waiting for 2018, only to be foiled by the Twins run in 2017? Unless he's proven himself to not be manager material or a golden boy has emerged in their eyes, I would think Pickler is the choice.
  7. twinstalker
    Jake Cave wasn't a sneaky find. He was an outfielder who wasn't good enough to stick on NY's 40 man, and that sort of tells you what we're dealing with here. He's a guy who might stick around a 25 man roster, but he's nothing more than replaceable. If Jake Cave is the standard for your team, you will never beat the Yankees or anyone else. Austin has flaws. He might be a good fit vs lhp, but he was certainly well-known. Oliver Drake is on his fifth team this year. The whole baseball world's gotten a look at him. I love the front office. They are doing things the right way. But they also let go of Rosario, Chargois, and D. Rodriguez. Finding three mediocrities (two, really) doesn't even make up for what they gave away, probably, and they had to spend most of $12 million to get a guy (Lynn) to trade for one of these "finds." So, forgetting about Austin whom we dealt for with Lynn, we found two bodies on the scrap heap and lost three. This feels like random baseball noise to me, and it feels like you're trying to read something into that. To me, neither Cave nor Drake has shown anything special that was "missed" by their previous clubs. I sort of doubt that the Twins will drop Cave after the season, but if they let these two guys go, it won't affect a thing and is probably the best move on them if you need to protect guys on the 40-man roster this winter.
  8. twinstalker
    I highly doubt Romero is going to be a #2 starter in the big leagues. He's an Andrew Miller-like reliever waiting to happen, and I wouldn't even mess around with the starter thing. He could be dominant for the next six years in that role prior to free agency. Romero lacks fastball command (always has) and certainly lacks an MLB changeup. He certainly needs to improve command (possible) for whatever role, but we do not need to waste years trying to get him to develop a changeup only to figure out it's never going to get there. High leverage the hell out of him in late innings.
  9. twinstalker
    If this is some way of saying that Gonsalves is not on the 40-man roster, your assumption is wrong, and you've found a web site to back up your bias/misconception. Hmmm...where have we seen this before? It's the new reality, I suppose.
  10. twinstalker
    It could be my mistake, but I think you've forgotten to change Nick Gordon's line this week. For years now I've failed to understand what's supposed to make him a top prospect. As far as I've seen for 4+ years, he's a middle infielder who sucks at being a middle infielder, so why give him credit for being a middle infielder? Most of all, it's seemed clear for the last year that his bat is not special in any real way. My prediction to league-mates in my simulation leagues is that it will take him four more years or so to establish himself as a second-division regular. This is not a top prospect, despite the fact prospect lists don't seem to grasp that. I put him behind Severino, and I don't know a thing about Severino's bat or fielding. I cry when I think we could have taken Trea Turner (though not as bad as I cried when we took Tyler Jay over Andrew Benintendi, someone I'm sure Ryan and Co. didn't even know was available as a sophomore-eligible). I think you can maybe excuse putting Gordon in your top 10-12 Twins list because he will get a shot for sure, but #2 or #4? Sorry, I have a lot of vitriol for the 20+ years of the Ryan administration and their decisions. How Terry Ryan took Alex Kirilloff, we'll never know. (/endrant)
  11. twinstalker
    Other teams have prospects, too. There are 30 teams, an average of 3.3 prospects per in any given top 100 list. Perhaps you think there are 7 or 8 Twins in the top 100 because it's difficult to name more than two on avg from each of the other teams? Lewis and Kirilloff are the only two guaranteed to be top 100 (top 40 probably) and Graterol is likely in if he ends the year healthy. Nick Gordon is vastly overrated and slowly disappearing from the lists. Javier was a trendy pick who won't be on, Gonsalves is very iffy. Thorpe is a better prospect than any of these guys. Rooker is unlikely to be on a consensus list. Larnach is interesting, but he's the 20th pick in the draft. That rarely gets you into a top 100. It basically means there are approx 20 other draftees put in there if he makes it. Keep in mind Larnach was drafted 20 in part because he was signing for less. He wasn't really even acknowledged as being around the 20th best. Right now he's hitting in a league that's a level below major college. The Twins system is developing nicely. Let's just be happy about that. We are in some ways catching up to other teams
  12. twinstalker
    Forgive me, but I'm going to respond to a few posts to try to give perspective. Rooker is by no means a bad prospect, but he is just about 24 playing in AA. If MLB throws him only fastballs, he might be of use, but that's not going to happen beyond the first bit of playing time. He has holes, he has no defensive value. He MIGHT be decent with the bat if he continues to improve. Interesting? Yes Get excited? No.
  13. twinstalker
    That Gordon will be in the top 5 to me is ridiculous. He'll eventually, like five years from now, maybe be a second division major leaguer. He'll be mostly terrible getting there, and there will be angst we didn't try to sign Dozier to a reasonable deal over that period. Pending news on why Thorpe left his game early, these are your top five: Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Thorpe, and somebody to be named who is not Gordon. Certainly, the combination of Littell and Gonsalves is a fantastic number 5, if we could do it that way. ;-) But I'd take anyone with a high upside ahead of Gordon, maybe starting with Larnach.
  14. twinstalker
    Our best pitching prospect (or two) goes 1.2 innings and no one asks why? Why????
  15. twinstalker
    I was going to write this, so thank you. One correction, I believe, is that a player gets something like a minimum ten days credit each time he is recalled. The PA rightfully wanted to make sure clubs didn't abuse their ability to shuttle players.
  16. twinstalker
    If you were to ask me who the best Twins prospect after Lewis is, I'd not be able to answer without overtly considering Thorpe. It's bad enough you have him behind Nick Gordon, but to put him behind two guys, Wade and Blankenhorn, whose upsides are as part-timers, is a crime iyam. Thorpe is the best starting prospect in the system not named Graterol. No, Romero's no longer a prospect (exceeded rookie limits), plus he'll be permanently in the bullpen by sometime next season. You heard it here first. :-) Our Andrew Miller.
  17. twinstalker
    Well, except the future all-star and (previously) potential HoF hitter we waited years on is at A+. Within that you can worry more or worry less and tie it to daily production. But what is absolutely clear is that you should worry.
  18. twinstalker
    Not Steve, but the two are very different. One is money, one is not. Cash would be the one that is money. Maybe they should start treating int'l bonus pool as we do tournament poker chips. Get rid of the idea of $$$. Call them chits or something. Then you spend the chits on int'l players, and the players can trade those one for one for dollars, but that has nothing to do with anything we care about. Then we'd be done with all the questions and confusion on this not so difficult subject.
  19. twinstalker
    Nobody talks much about this as the reason for Gordon being in AA, but he was absolutely horrible defensively in spring training, and I think the Twins are sort of tying his promotions to his defensive play. Of course, at some point with even no improvement, he'd move to AAA, but my opinion is that while he's still early enough for AA to not be a total slap in the face, the Twins will give him incentive to tighten up his play in the field.
  20. twinstalker
    There's no way I would have sent LaMarre down. If he's at all for real, or even if he's on a hot streak, you have to ride it out. The downside of adding LaMarre now could be having to cut him from the 40, depending on whether the Twins need the spot, so his fate might ride on whether he starts out hot. Had he gone to AAA and shown that he's truly turned a corner, he might have ended up with a better opportunity, especially if Grossman regresses more. Now, if he starts out cold, he might be searching for work, though I'm sure the Twins would love him back at AAA. But from the Twins point of view, ride the hot hand. I hope they give him time and opportunity.
  21. twinstalker
    Win now mode? <rolls his eyes> Um, yes. But you are implying with that phrase that they have to give up the future for the now. Which, btw, is a complete fallacy today. Only the historical preponderance and absolute ignorance of teams truly giving up way too much long-term for short-term help has this as an either or proposition. The exploitable inefficiency is that some teams still probably believe this. Terry Ryan's group would. Ramos for Capps is an example of this. Falvine appears to approach it right. Do everything you can for the "now" that doesn't effect the future in any noticeable way. When they do eventually send out a "real prospect" for shorter-term help (think Nick Gordon), I suspect they will have somewhat soured on the prospect before the league finds out. Eventually, whatever inefficiencies the Twins are exploiting will cease to exist, and so they'll have to be on top of the others that spring up. Thus far they've benefited from the Pohlad's willingness to spend (e.g. the Garcia/Littell deal, Odorizzi, Lynn), so they may be more handcuffed in the future. But for now, "win now mode" doesn't make much sense in its implication.
  22. twinstalker
    I think it's pretty simple. Team needs a rh OF to go with rh DH/OF Grossman, and we can get rid of Vargas, whom we know a lot about. There's this guy in camp who is mashing it and fills that role. Why wouldn't you go with the hot streak until it proves out otherwise? There is nothing about Granite that is helpful, other than as a backup to Buxton, and the Twins can survive the one game until Granite gets called up to replace an injured Buxton. If Vargas is the argument here, and you don't think there are AAAA guys available all over the place who can do as much or more than him, then I'm not sure what to say. My guess, though, is that if Vargas were with another organization and made available to us, that argument wouldn't exist. The love for Vargas and Granite on here baffles me.
  23. twinstalker
    The timing looks right for him to replace Rosario or Kepler, though I'm not sure if Rosario lasts quite long enough for Alex K. to step right in.
  24. twinstalker
    As I said (or meant), and I think I'm mostly right with this one, a hitter-first college player taken past the top thirty is rather unlikely to profile as we're hoping Rooker profiles. What's in the head of most people genuinely excited about Rooker is/was not in the head of the organizations that are in the know (nowadays more than ever). You don't generally pass on the guy the commenters have in mind. That's why I mention his story is somewhat different enough to be hopeful that maybe one slipped through, but I'm staying sober on this one until he destroys the upper minors and shows he can hit breaking balls.
  25. twinstalker
    I'm not smart enough to know whether he's a great prospect at this point, but I will say if he is and if he's a fast mover, the timing couldn't have been better for him. 1st base, if not open, is soon to be, and the corner OFers are all lh, including the top two backups. I think the story here is different enough to be hopeful about. There aren't a lot of college picks 30+ that speed through the minors and become good players. If teams think there's a chance of that, they're on them earlier. I don't think Will Clark and Rafael Palmeiro lasted beyond the first few coming out of Mississippi State. Fingers crossed.
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