Darius

I have no major qualms. You’ll never make everyone happy with a list like this. Gordon is a tad high for my liking. I’d probably have Jeffers higher than him. I’d make also have Hill a tad higher, but understand any concerns there. I have no problem with Lewis being where he is in the list. Just because he won’t get a chance, doesn’t mean he’s not a better player than some guy at the end of the bullpen. He’s an elite prospect that just won the AFL MVP in CF (but is a full time SS). Seems like some might be losing the first for the trees.

My fault for getting overly excited about hoe good Buxton could be this year.

Some of these comps are pretty rough, in terms of being used in a conversation about potential going forward (not saying that’s what you’re doing, but some may). Kepler has already surpassed Ankiel’s career WAR. His most recent season was much more impressive than anything Ankiel every accomplished, not even close really. Kepler possibly hasn’t even hit his prime (he’ll be 27 this year, which is supposed to be the magic year). Same for Polanco vs. Spivey. Devon White was a nice player. He had a few years in his prime where he sat around 6 WAR. Many years well below that. Buxton, as a 25 year old, just put up 3.1 WAR in 295 PAs in 2019. For reference, in Trout’s 2014 MVP season, he put up 7.7 in 705. That’s .0105 vs. .0109 per plate appearance, putting Buxton at about 7.4 in the same number of PAs.....and he wasn’t even hitting as well as we’d seen in the past (fall of 2017, I believe, he was raking). Buxton could realistically win an MVP soon. Another consideration is that White stole a lot of bases (topped 40 once or twice, almost 500 in his career). The game has changed a lot in that regard. Buxton is the kind of guy who could’ve stolen 100 had he played then. Each current Twin above, if healthy, will be better than the career year for each of those comps. They are better players. Also, not sure I agree that Rosario can’t get better. The impact of the ankle injury has been well documented. He’s entering his age 28 season. If he can stay healthy (the caveat with everyone on this club, it seems), he could certainly see an uptick in production.

Agree on Sano. People get worked up about his strikeouts, but if you look at things like avg. exit velocity, barrel rate, etc., its impressive. In terms of a full, healthy 162 game season, you’re looking at a guy who could score 100, drive in 100, walk 75 times, hit 40+ homers, etc. Just in terms of offense skill set, he’s right in the Aaron Judge neighborhood given 600+ PAs. Judge will carry a slightly higher average thus a slight edge, though in the neighborhood.

It doesn’t get set up any better than this, guys. Everyone is healthy for the first time (I don’t recall a game last year that included a healthy Rosario, Sano, Buxton, Garver, Kepler, Cruz. There may have been a handful). That includes Rich Hill, who has been one of the best pitchers in the game when healthy. Things happen, it’s baseball. But, if there was ever a year, it’s this one.

I really like the Twins offseason. I’d take a healthy Rich Hill over Keuchel. I’d take Donaldson over any of the hitters, clearly. I may take Rooker/Kirilloff/Larnach over any as well. I see very little room for someone like Smoak. The argument for Maybin is sound as an insurance policy in center. But, he wanted to be an everyday player....and he’ll likely be available via trade.

Ah, I see we’re back on the “in order for Buxton to be great, he should stop doing what makes him great,” conversation. The same people who say that are going to call for his head when his WPA/WAR numbers go through the floor (unless he starts hitting like he did the second half of 2017). Sure, he’s not helping much if he’s not on the field. He’s also not if he throttles down and becomes a replacement level player. I don’t get the argument.

I agree with Ace’s sentiment. I think Rosario is in for a big year. We all know about the injury, and it undoubtedly had an impact. He was phenomenal in April/May. Notably slugging .670 with 11 HRs and OPSing nearly 1.000 in April, with 50 RBI across both months - he was basically driving in a run every night. I’ll see the batting title, and raise you: If Eddie comes out of the gates hot like he did last year, he could be in the neighborhood of a triple crown. He’ll always struggle to maintain a BA that high, but we’ve seen go on insane power binges in the past. They come in bunches.

Sano almost certainly isn’t missing time because of the infection related to this positive test. If he is in line to miss significant time due to COVID, there is a much larger issue (reinfection, mutation, etc.). We’re likely not playing baseball anyway, in that case. But, if he happens to blow a hamstring while training in quarantine or something, they’ll go with a combination of Gonzalez and Adrianza. I don’t know if they’d go with Garver there before calling up Rooker, but that wouldn’t shock me (Avila and Tortuga at C). The real issue is going to be the ones that test positive a couple weeks from now. It’s going to happen. That said, teams are also going to sink significant resources into keeping this out of their locker room. Right now is the most vulnerable time, in terms of spreading amongst players. It’s very possible we don’t hear much about it during the regular season. At the end of the day, I think it’ll be tough for a prospect to break the lineup. A contender can’t afford the learning curve in a shortened season, a loser won’t want to waste the service time. Rooker getting some ABs is probably it realistic, but there is no way we’re seeing Kirilloff or Lewis.

I’m not a huge fan of Polanco hitting 5th, but I certainly wouldn’t lose any sleep. I’m not sure I’d hand Arraez the lead off spot from day 1 in a shortened season. If he starts off this season where he left off the last, he may be there after the first week or two. Game 1 would look like this: 1) Polanco 2) Donaldson 3) Cruz 4) Kepler 5) Garver 6) Rosario 7) Sano 8) Arraez 9) Buxton I’d like Sano to hit hit higher in the lineup, but I’d rather not line up Donaldson, Cruz, Garver, Sano for a “RH specialist” type reliever. I don’t think you deviate from that much, whether LHP be RHP. You could swap pieces for the hot hand (Rosario and Kepler, Sano and Cruz or Garver, Arraez and Polanco) and still keep the basic structure. What an unbelievable lineup. Absolutely terrifying as a lefty (welcome to the division, Mr. Keuchel).

Coronavirus is now in lockdown until it develops a viable Willians Astudillo vaccine.

Agree on the hitters. But, I’m not sure it hurts Balazovic as much (aside from financially, possibly). I could be wrong, but I feel like it’s different for hitters, having to stay in the razor’s edge in terms of vision/hand-eye/timing. He’ll still be working and developing, not sitting on his rear end. This will give him a chance to keep some mileage off his arm. Maybe save some of the bullets in that arm and apply towards a longer major league career. He can take the opportunity to dedicate more time to his body (strength, flexibility, conditioning). The stress and toll on the body of travel, bus rides, plane rides, hotels, etc is eliminated. Try new things with mechanics if desired. Work more on underdeveloped pitches. I’ve long been very confused by allowing a pitcher with electric stuff that would play at the major league level, to toil for years in the minor leagues, anyway. If there are massive control issues, it’s understandable, but that’s not the case here. Get him mentally and physically dialed in this year, turn him loose in AA/AAA next year to get back into game action, and have him ready for the majors by July. I’m not especially surprised by leaving him off, either. It just tells you he was never in their plans for this year. They were not breaking that service time seal this year no matter what. If they really thought there was a chance he could end up being a rotation piece come playoff time, he’d be on the squad.

Nothing surprising there. The fall of Fernando Romero has been tragic. One day he’s a top prospect lighting up the majors. Gaining steam around the MLB as a future star, a sensation. The next, an afterthought. I guess that’s why there’s no such thing as a pitching prospect.

I have to say, I agree with the Rosario sentiment. Looks bad at times, but clearly thrives in big, late game moments. I’ll take the under on the 5.5 for Rosario. Not any fault of Eddie, the lineup is just too damn good. Donaldson slots into the top 3 in the order. Garver should clearly be in position of prominence. If it were up to me, Sano would be in the 5 spot. As far as wins go, give me the over. The Twins have the easiest schedule in the MLB.

I agree that trading will likely be sparse. The shorter the season, the more volatile things are in terms of outcome. All it takes is one great/terrible week and things change. The impact of injuries is magnified. Data becomes skewed. Then, there’s the pandemic. Revenues will be down. Parting with a cheap prospect for a big contract becomes less appealing from a financial standpoint. A resurgence of the virus could shut down the game at any point. There has to be all sorts of new contractual considerations. For example, who wants to acquire an expiring deal for prospects without some recourse if the season gets called a week after the trade. It’s a totally different game. I’m excited to watch it okay out.

Are there any changes to service time calculations with the shortened season? Are we going to see prospects left off the bench to train elsewhere for the sake of service time? If you start poorly and go 2-8, do you just blow it up and send any prospects that could accrue service time home? I’m just trying to nail down pros and cons of dragging a guy like Royce Lewis around with the team, but not giving him playing time/ABs.

Yeah, strange call-out of Smeltzer. A 24 year old world class athlete, with unlimited resources in terms of nutrition, healthcare, facilities, testing, monitoring, you name it. These guys fly charter jets half-way around the globe to have a small piece of connective tissue in the elbow examined.

A few points of interest for me: 1). I was surprised to see how big he is. For some reason, I didn’t get that from his pictures. 2). It’s good to hear the Twins are getting some recognition for player development. I sat back and had a moment of appreciation for where Falvine has gotten this club in that regard. 3). This is the kind of player that got hosed by COVID and the MLB. He probably missed out on a nice bonus (maybe $100k?). I can’t speak for control, breaking stuff, deception, etc.....but give me every 6’5” power lefty. I’m envisioning James Paxton running it up there 96 from the left side on the 7th inning.

The MLB offices seriously have to upgrade their PR staff. Regardless of who is at fault, Manfred looks like the dunce as usual. Although, it would be impossible to side with Manfred on anything. He could say the sky was blue, and I’d argue it’s actually more of a cyan. He’s just too awful.

I intentionally left them out. I don’t feel great about either being clean-up hitting studs 3 years from now. As a catcher, the chances of Garner maintaining his level of production last year through his age 32 season is pretty minimal. Counting on any catcher to be an offensive centerpiece years down the road is a bad idea. We saw concussions derail Mayer’s historically great career. It usually happens suddenly, not a slow progression over time. Not saying it’s impossible, just not likely given the wear and tear. Also, can he really be an offensive centerpiece while playing only half of the games (if he stays behind the plate?). Also, doesn’t Jeffers replace him behind the plate eventually if he’s as good as they say? I’m as big a fan of Sano as anyone. You can look at my history here, if you don’t believe me. I was advocating for the guy at his lowest point, when most others wanted him gone. But, that doesn’t mean I think building an entire offense around him is a great idea. Obviously, there consistency issues there. There are injury issues. He’s gotten into some trouble. There’s a pretty good chance his skills will erode (big guys fall off a cliff at some point - Prince Fielder for one), he’ll get injured, or he’ll run into some more trouble between now and then. I love him as a player, just don’t have confidence in his longevity into his 30s. To your point, if Garver needs his reps to be at 1B/DH, that may mean either he or Sano are off the team. We know Donaldson will be here, does he stick at 3rd base as a 37-38 year old? If Kepler is still around, where does that put one of Kirillof/Larnach? Neither of them are playing CF. Lewis? That’s also assuming these guys pan out. It’s all but guaranteed that 1, maybe two of them don’t live up to the hype. Again, not saying these two won’t be there and won’t be good. But, anyone prudent and impartial can easily see the risks there. Hell, even a lot of projection systems have Garver coming back to earth in 2020, let alone 2023. One guy I did leave off the list was Arraez. I’d put him with Polanco and Kepler as most likely to still be around and productive a few years from now. My point is this: You don’t draft for current need. Those will change in three years. It’s just as likely that some of Berrios, Balazovic, Duran, Enlow, Thorpe, Jax, Colina, Sands, Vallimont, Leach are a dynamite rotation and we’re desperate for hitters because Cruz has retired. Donaldson has gotten old, Garver is a shell due catching, Sano fell apart again, Rosario left in free agency, etc. etc.

Good point, duly noted. Take Harper off the list (despite technically attending a college) and replace him with JD Martinez, Charlie Blackmon, Tim Anderson, Joey Gallo, etc. there are dozens more quality players that can be added to the list (just on the offensive side of the ball). My point is only that going to college is perceived as a negative. I can’t figure out why. I’m guessing it’s an age thing, but facts are less than 5% of MLB players have a 4 year degree. 1). That’s a bad life decision, unless you’re Mike Trout. The majority of these guys aren’t going to be set for life. 2). That means age isn’t really the issue. The vast majority are leaving school before they graduate. Is it really that much different than an 18 year old playing rookie ball? A lot college bats get “fast tracked,” and aren’t really delaying the timeline much. Bergman went to college and still debuted at age 23 (and is one of the top 5 players in the game). I just don’t understand the concern over “college.” Is it really any different if they’re drafting high school hitters? It really means nothing in terms of future production. What percentage of high school bats are up at age 21 or before? Almost none unless you’re an elite top 10 caliber prospect. It’s a really good discussion topic. Somewhere along the way something happened that caused people to view college hitters less favorably than others. Doesn’t make sense to me considering the list I’ve provided. It seems that for every Bellinger there’s a Bregman. Obviously, numbers get skewed a little because I’m not sure people are properly discounting international players. When we’re talking about players from the United States or elsewhere that are draft eligible, there seems to be a pretty good success rate when it comes to college hitters.

I like the strategy. Now, more than ever, hitters are easier to project into the future. When you’re working with relatively limited resources, you make safe bets. I also think we’re seeing a similar blueprint working wonderfully right now. The Nationals (Scherzer, Corbin, Soto, Rendon), the Astros (Verlander, Grienke, Altuve, Springer, etc.) are prime examples. Develop hitters, then go buy the pitching when the time is right. One obvious reason: You don’t need the volume when it comes to pitching. You need a couple great starters and a handful of good relievers. It’s much easier to go out and get a high-end starter and reliever than multiple high-end offensive pieces. We just saw first hand the kind of organizational depth it takes to have an elite offense. Something also not being considered is the current roster construction. There’s going to be significant turnover on the offensive side in fairly short order. Kepler and Polanco are the only ones you can reasonably count on being around and productive 2-3 years from now. With Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, and maybe Rooker, it’s a start. But, more is needed, and I don’t see much behind that handful in terms of being impactful offensively and close to the majors. Or, could it be that just maybe the college hitter was just the best player there in their evaluation? There are an awful lot of great hitters out there that went to college. “College” is carrying this derogatory sentiment when it comes to prospects for some reason. Worked out pretty well for some guys named Josh Donaldson and Mitch Garver. Also, some guys called Rendon, Harper, Goldschmidt, Alonso, Story, Bregman, Chapman, etc.

I’d say Arraez’s perfect rating in contact vs. righties and vision are pretty outstanding.

Terry Ryan’s deficiencies didn’t lie in his ability to identify talent. His inability to keep up with the times in terms of information systems was his downfall. The development side was a disaster for a significant amount of time. Many-a-player have publicly lamented the “Twins Way.” When it comes to player acquisition only, I think Ryan’s team did pretty well. The young-ish “core” of this club are all Ryan-era (including Smith’s short stint) holdovers. Kepler, Polanco, Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Garver, Rosario, Rogers, Duffy, May, etc. You can go back to the 00s as well, as mentioned above. Plucking Johan in the Rule 5. The Liriano trade. Hunter, Mauer, Morneau. Some pretty phenomenal talent acquisition. The game just seemed to pass him by in terms of philosophy. Also, wherever the blame lies (whether Ryan or Pohlad), the reluctance to fortify a roster from the outside in a meaningful way could’ve easily cost him a ring or two.

This article is irresponsible. Everyone, let’s virtue signal and dox everyone around us as possible racists and supporters of the police (anything but that!). Very productive right now. Honestly, from my point of view there are very few people out there who aren’t agreeing on the issues right now. Who is arguing what happened to this man at the hands of a potential sociopath was/is acceptable? It was absolutely horrific, and absolutely needs to be addressed. Who is arguing peaceful demonstrations are unacceptable? Anyone with a shred common human decency agrees (which is 95% of the population). So, what the heck is this? What’s the point of this article? What does he have to say to satisfy you that he’s not a “Nazi“ and be able to move on to phase 2 of the purge, and at what point does he have to say it? Let’s hear your rules. Or, are you doing this to try to convince yourself that you’re better? “A slap in the face to community?” for not Tweeting. Seriously? Think about that for a minute. How did this become normalized? Our society truly has gone off the rails. I’ve never seen anything like this. A human rights issue that everyone fundamentally agrees on. There was about 24 hours where everyone was coming together and agreeing that this was an abomination of justice. Because we can’t have that for long, we immediately moved into this disturbing cannibalization of each other’s character....like it powers you up a level to call someone else out. Perverse Orwellian Pac-Man. And yes, its been politicized. You’re parading around a symbol of support for the police that’s been around for years as some sort of symbols of hatred? It’s a clear political statement. What message do you think you’re sending that’s productive in that sense? Kepler would be totally justified in not uttering more than a “no comment,” to TD for the rest of his career. I know damn well my legal team would be getting ahold of folks about legal implications in terms of how some insinuations in this article damage my career going forward. Tread carefully.