Darius

Gordon has battled health issues aside from COVID in recent years. Classifying him as a perfectly healthy individual because he’s an athlete isn’t completely true. As with nearly every case of COVID severely impacting a non-elderly person, there is an underlying condition.

You’re right, I was only comparing last year when both were in the majors. Probably more appropriate to compare career numbers. Also, Jeffers has an extremely small sample size. Though, to be fair, Arraez still hasn’t accumulated a full season of plate appearances either (he’s still under 500). I don’t think Arraez will consistently hit over .330. I don’t think that’s a particularly hot take. Historically, even throughout his minor league career, he’s never had an OPS over .800 with an average under .330. How much of his career major league OPS is propped up by the juiced ball? He hit 4 home runs that year, he hit none last year. We’re getting into opinions vs. stats here, but I don’t think we’ll see many years of Arraez OPSing bear what he did in 2019. We’ll never know what Jeffers’ power numbers look like with that ball. My intention isn’t to undersell Arraez. He’s a very good and useful player (though think many overvalue Arraez significantly because of batting average, which I think most will agree is an antiquated way of analyzing a players value). But, being so one dimensional hurts his value. Hitting for average in the MLB now is like being a great running back in the NFL. The game has shifted to being built around power. I could also say that assuming robo umps are going to negate Jeffers top-notch defense undersells him. Facts are, right now, Jeffers offers a defensive dimension that will be around for the immediate future that Arraez never will. I think Arraez’s defense pulls down his value, whereas, at worst case scenario, Jeffers’ defense is neutral - currently it significantly increases his value. You make good points, it’s a good debate, it’s very close. I would concede that I could be wrong very easily. There’s no question that both are good players. But, if I were building a team from scratch and got the choice of either one, I’d take Jeffers.

I’d go with Jeffers over Arraez. The OBP numbers are comparable (.365 for Arraez, .356 for Jeffers). Jeffers hits for more power, which leads to higher OPS/OPS+, etc. Jeffers is also much more valuable defensively. Small sample size for Jeffers, but the defense and extra base power limit Arraez in my eyes.

I think the underwhelming performance is more concerning than anything. When you’re carrying an OPS under .750 through the minors, have questionable hitting mechanics, and there’s questions about whether you can stick at short....it’s a major concern for a guy you took #1 overall. It’s different if we’re talking about a compensatory pick, or even back end of the first round. But, when you see what a guy like Gore is doing, it’s tough to feel good about we got for #1 overall. This isn’t a hindsight issue like Mike Trout, either. There were plenty of people saying Gore was the best player on the draft at the time. This has the making of another draft miss that’ll haunt (see also the recent Nick Gordon article). The MLB Draft is a crap shoot. We all know that. But, when you choose a philosophy of developing players over paying established guys via free agency, you sure as heck better draft well. Especially when you have the pick of any player on the board.

That 2014 draft with Nick Gordon was a disaster for the Twins. Not a useful player selected. It pains me greatly looking back and seeing Nick Gordon selected over Trea Turner or Aaron Nola.

I think we’re seeing some congestive dissonance type behavior when it comes to people drawing these conclusions about Krilloff. Some people love this front office. Nothing wrong with that at all. But, they are placing their own moral outlook onto the operations of the Twins front office. It’s like anthropomorphism in a way. Because they’re a good person, I like the Front Office, they must be good people. If they’re good people, there’s no way they would do something that may seem unethical like manipulate a players service time for financial reasons. Thus, in order to reconcile with the potential Kirilloff situation, there has to be something else at play. It has to be that he isn’t ready for the majors, despite just watching him rocket the ball around the field again the Astros pitching staff in a playoff game. Or, it has to be some nefarious motive from a lurking agent, and the Twins are merely manipulating his service as a wise defense from getting ripped off in some way. They’ll just never accept that they’re screwing this kid over, and making the team worse, for financial gain. All of this said, we say see Kirilloff start in left field on opening day. But the absolute refusal to buy that the FO could possibly do something unbecoming is wild.

I disagree. The team doesn’t have a left fielder. They thought Kirilloff was good enough to start a playoff game. He’s one of the elite hitting prospects in the game. It couldn’t be more clear that the only reason he isn’t starting opening day is to manipulate service time. He’s 23 years old and has been in the system for years. Anything he has to work isn’t fixed by facing inferior competition. You don’t learn to hit major league pitching in AAA. The team is not better with a utility guy who is defensively deficient and a .750 OPS in left field every day. Arraez should the utility man (and get plenty of ABs like Marwin). Kirilloff should be in left field every day.

It kinda stings seeing where Gore (the #3 pick in Lewis’ draft) is on all of these lists and how he dominated AA pre-COVID. Though, I still feel pretty good about Lewis. I feel like he’s at a crossroads in terms of how he is regarded as a prospect. He needs to have a good year. It’ll be an interesting story to follow.

I’d gladly take a shorter window for a more aggressive approach in going for deep playoff runs. Setting the record for most consecutive playoff losses doesn’t happen by accident. That’s where you end up with a middling approach and a refusal to part with prospects/dollars to bolster the roster. I’m not ready to lump Falvine into the same category as the previous regime in the ‘00s. They’ve shown some aggression. But, I’m not yet convinced they’ll do (or be allowed to do) enough, either.

You prove your case with numbers. I can play that game. Show me a statical analysis that a team benefits on average in terms of wins and losses when they manipulate the service time of a 23 year old to gain his 29 year old season. You’re trying to tell me that the front office didn’t feel he was ready for the majors, but started him in a playoff game? You think your analysis of that situation makes more sense? Were they throwing the game? You think the cupboard is so bare, despite hearing about the outfield logjam for years that they’re starting overmatched prospects in the ALDS? That’s quite the indictment of the FOs competence and roster management. Did Kirilloff look overmatched to you? Prove your case statistically that he’s not ready. What’s silly is trying to place the burden of proof via statistics on the guy who thinks the 23 year top prospect should be playing. How many top hitting prospects failed miserably at 23, but were world beaters at 24-29? Show me those statistics.

I can buy an open competition between Rooker and Kirilloff, maybe. But, not wanting to lose Cave shouldnt be a rationale to keep one of the best hitting prospects in the league in the minors. Also, people overvalue Arraez. His OPS was .765 last year with a .320 batting average. Is he going to continue hit .320 every year? He’s also never been a regular outfielder, isn’t fast, doesn’t have much of an arm, etc. A poor fielding utility man who can’t hit for power should not be blocking one of the elite hitting prospects in the game. And why is the player’s agent the bad guy for wanting to make his client more money vs. the billionaire wanting to avoid paying market rate to save a few million?

No question. It’s just silly for anyone to say he’s ready to start a playoff game against the Astros, but he’s not ready to play opening day. When he inevitably starts in the minors, I don’t want to hear that line. If the FO can’t be honest and take the heat for the service time manipulation, then don’t do it. What are we saving that service time for? Is the net present value of that hypothetical year down the road really more valuable than a full season of him when you know he’s in his physical prime? Has that actually paid off for a team in terms of it being the difference for a championship? I say no to both. You’ve set this team up to try and win something meaningful now. Who’s to say you’ll be competitive during that one hypothetical year down the road, or that Kirilloff will be healthy or any better then than he is today? How does it make sense to sacrifice a year in which you’re legitimately trying to win a World Series, for a year that you hope to be contending for a World Series years down the road? Especially when your division rival is set up much better than you going into the future. What if you miss home field advantage, lose the division, or even miss the playoffs by one game and he would’ve made the difference, since we’re dealing in hypotheticals?

I don’t think we’ll see another season like 2019 out of Max, but he’ll be solid. If nothing else, he’s one of the more reliable guys on the team. He’ll give us 140 games of solid defense and 20-25 HRs. 140 games seems like a tall order for nearly any other position player at this point.

Why is Sano used as the baseline for a terrible walk rate? His career walk rate is 11.7. Josh Donaldson’s is 12.5. Extrapolate that over 600 PAs in a year and we’re talking something like 5 walks per year. Sano didn’t have a great year in that department let year, but 2019 was around Donaldson’s career mark, if I recall. If he can get back to his approach earlier in his career, which I believe was over 15 in his rookie year, he’s one of the more disciplined hitters in the league. The league average in 2020 over around 9%.

I can’t figure out that White Sox projection. They are just too talented. I’d probably take their rotation over ours. It’s close, but Giolito is phenomenal. People give Keuchel a lot of crap, but he was great last year (better than anyone in our rotation behind Maeda statistically). We all know how good Lance Lynn has been. Kopech has a lot of upside. Cease is a very solid 5th starter. Hendrix and Bummer at the back end of their bullpen is absolutely elite. It’s very close, but I’d give their pitching staff the edge over ours. I’m terrified of how good their lineup could be. Just go around the horn. Grandal, Abbreu, Madrigal, Anderson, Moncada, Jimenez, Robert, Eaton, Vaughn. I can’t look at and that and definitively say we have a better lineup. They could explode this year. Defensively, you could point out Tim Anderson’s shaky defense at SS. But, we seemed to do fine with Polanco, who is similar: Robert just beat out Buxton for gold glove. Grandal is phenomenal behind the plate. It’s very close , but with our injury history at nearly every position, I’m not confident that we’ll win the division. I feel like they look like a lot like we did going into 2019, but with a better pitching staff.

I just can believe there isn’t more outrage about this. There’s been significant outrage regarding the NBA about sitting a player a few games while they find a trade partner. There’s been endless leftist protests regarding “billionaires” and their evils. But, nobody seems to give a rip about robbing a baseball player of multiple seasons and potentially tens of millions in earnings to save some crusty billionaire from having to pay before he’d like to. Or, better yet, under the pretense that these crusty billionaires, in Minnesota’s case, fully intend on never paying the player and milking their prime before they walk. In fact, if you bring up how backwards it is, you’re told “you just don’t understand,” by the baseball intellectuals. Very interesting socio-political anomaly.

Good for him. The guy came out of nowhere, carved himself out a nice career, and made himself a lot of money. The American Dream. As noted above, a lot of good memories of Dozier in a Twins’ uniform.

If his stuff is better than Dobnak and Shoemaker, get him up to big leagues. First, I’m not as high on this pitching staff as some. Im comfortable with the 1-3, but if you can add an electric arm to the back end during the regular season, that’s massive. A guy like Dobnak shouldn’t be blocking anyone (before you throw stats at me, apparently the FO doesn’t think all that highly of him either - they never seem to want to commit to him as a fixture in the rotation). Also, if they’re going to keep pulling stunts like yanking the Cy Young runner up while he’s cruising after 5 in a playoff game, I’d rather see a guy like Balazovic, who can pitch multiple innings with high-ish end stuff vs. the 4th or 5th option from a fairly shallow bullpen. In order to feel good about him being used in that role, you have to get him major league innings during the regular season. Don’t pull the same shortsighted roster management that was done with Kirilloff for the sake of milking service time. Once a pitcher gets to a certain level in terms of ability, I don’t see the sense in burning up their arm in the minors. Get him up, use him in some way, keep him stretched out with bullpens and live batting practice, and let the top-notch pitching coaches here round him into form. Blowing away the same 20 year olds and journeyman in AA isn’t helping anyone a significant amount. Do not play the service time game with top pitching prospects.

The lead is being buried. Instead of pretending like it was just luck of the draw, live and learn kind of thing.....why aren’t they getting roundly criticized for putting together a bullpen that relied on the rotting corpse of Sergio Romo in the ninth inning of a playoff game? Everyone could see that guy was cooked. Awful decision making and roster management. Replacing May with Colome doesn’t get this team over the hump. We’re now seeing them trying recycle the skeletal remains of what used to be Hansel Robles, fresh off an ERA over 10. Why? Because he was a bargain....gee, I wonder why. How much you want to bet we see him blow it in a huge spot? Then, next year, they’ll again make a couple of inconsequential moves....we’ll again pretend that they’re the brilliant American Pickers out there finding diamonds in the rough, and things are going to be different.

It must be a phenomenal time to a Padres fan. They’re doing recently what Twins’ fans have always hoped the club would do when the opportunity presented itself. This is what a burning desire to win a World Series looks like. Furiously adding/locking up high-end pieces (you want to see what a legit World Series caliber starting rotation looks like?), instead of cranking up the PR machine to convince fans that the recent addition from the scrap heap was the smart and “efficient” move.

But where the is value in a part time defensive specialist? You can sign those guys for minimum wage or minor league deals every year. Ehire Adrianza played a phenomenal third base with Donaldson out last year. I just read an article that ranked him as a top 10 defender on the left side of the infield based on OAA. You don’t need to draft guys that profile as Adrianza in the first round because you’re scared of a Pete Alonso type flaming out offensively. You want to pay a multi million dollar slot and drag him through minors for 5 years, when you can sign one every year for a few hundred grand? If you’re going out and signing elite hitters, you’re paying huge money (the Twins just paid, what, about $45 million for an elite DH the last 3 years?). You’re not getting a Mike Trout or Nolan Arenado comp at the back end of the first round. I just don’t understand what people expect. I love the pick.

To be fair, nobody outside of an epically elite CF, SS, or C has any value if they don’t develop offensively. Even then, remember how many people wanted to exile Buxton with his early offensive struggles? Teams weren’t clamoring to sign Simmons this offseason, either, and you can get guys like Billy Hamilton on minor league deals. You can find defense on the scrap heap. You draft for high-end offensive potential. The guys that have both aren’t sitting there are the tail end of the first round.

It’s not hard to convincingly argue that the roster has taken a step back from last year. In fact, it’s really easy. The injury issues aren’t just going away. Cruz isn’t going to OPS 1.000 again. Maeda isn’t going to be Cy Young runner up. The starting rotation took a step back, talent-wise (Rich Hill and Odorizzi are better than Shoemaker and Happ). The bullpen took a step back (anyone see Robles’ numbers last year?). The Twins’ don’t need to improve, according to Nick. Is that the hill we’re going to make our stand on now? We haven’t been remotely competitive in the playoffs, including last year. The White Sox will be better. That list of additions/losses is so purposefully misleading that it should be flagged by Twitter. That one takes the heavyweight championship belt.

Didn’t Falvey come out and say they done making significant moves? Could be I misread something somewhere. I can’t really complain about what they’ve done. I’m not going to anoint them baseball royalty like some. I don’t think they’ve done enough to get over the hump, but that’s just one guy’s opinion. One thing I take exception with is Shoemaker. If they’re rolling the dice on an injury-prone pitcher, I would prefer Paxton. If that works out you’re looking at some legitimate front-line upside. But, at the end of the day, I’m not confident either will be healthy enough to make a huge difference.

Shouldn’t we wait until we see some results before throwing around “proven masters of efficiency?” Doesn’t efficiency imply you’re achieving at the same level as others dedicating more resources? To date, we’ve accomplished nothing other than the longest playoff losing streak in the history of any documented sport. Are we really that confident shedding Rosario and adding Simmons is getting us over that hump? I’m not. I hate to keep beating this drum, but I feel it’s just a fact of life at this point. It’s the same story every year, only the characters’ names change a little. Through the Gardy years, and now we’re seeing it again. We tout the bargains and savvy, then end up lamenting being one piece short. Rinse, repeat. Meanwhile, those “inefficient” clubs throwing money around like schmucks take home the hardware. I’d like, for once, to be that schmuck.