Darius

I like the concept of shifting, but it sure does seem to hurt teams a higher rate than the analysts will tell you it should. I have no numbers, just a feeling I get since it became “the thing.” Is that reality, I don’t know (I also recall a ton of outs made by the shortstop on balls up the middle that were base hits for 100 years prior). I’d love to see an actual comparison. What did the spray charts say the outcome should be vs. the actual outcome on every shift by every team over a season? It would also be interesting to see what percentage of failures were because the pitcher didn’t locate properly (example, shifting a player to pull then missing with a fastball on the outer half intended for inner half, etc.). I would guess the problem, if any, lies in statisticians not following their own principles in terms of sample sizes and regression to the mean. How many points of data does it take to get to the true long-term trend for a hitter? Sure don’t want that regression to the mean striking in a playoff game.

I’m torn on the subject. On one hand, he has been great here. He’s clearly a positive influence. His numbers have been phenomenal. He’s fun to watch. He’s, by all accounts, a great guy. On the other, as great as he’s been, we’re still being swept out of the playoffs and humiliated with him in the lineup. You know what they say about trying the same thing repeatedly hoping for a different result. I also don’t think regression is a going to deliberate process. One day, he’s going to wake up and the bat/hand-eye will be just a tick slower. Thats all it takes to go from premier power hitter to detrimental. Honestly, I’d be fine either way. At this point, I can’t be convinced that this roster is making a serious push for a title any time soon, with or without Cruz.

People aren’t frustrated that they didn’t repeat the historic home run numbers. People are pissed that this team can’t win a big game. People are sick of the FOs (two FOs) half-assery dating back to 2001, and a manager who thinks he’s analytically cute I still can’t figure how anyone on earth can think pulling Jose Berrios at 5 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 1 R and 75 for Cody freaking Stashak and Kenta Maeda in the middle of 2H shutout in a playoff game is a good idea (but, he’ll let Maeda throw 200 pitches ina meaningless regular season game for a good story). Or, pinch running a visibly ill Byron Buxton to lay in the middle of infield. Or, pinch hitting for Ryan Jeffers with Mitch Garver, who is worse both offensively and defensively. Or, playing Alex Kirilloff in an elimination playoff game, but not giving him a single regular season AB (thanks for that, FO, hope that service time comes in handy when we suck 5 years from now). Or, batting a visibly hobbled and powerless Luis Arraez in the leadoff spot to go 0 for everything. Or, handing Rogers and Romo the ball in the 9th in back to back games after being awful for an extended period of time, but not getting Clippard an inning? The list goes on. When are we going to admit Baldelli sucks, and people only want him to be good because he’s a poor man’s Bill Walton? Remember when people were running Molitor out of town? I don’t recall his list of absurd managerial decisions being even close to Baldelli’s. Play your best players. Pitch your best pitchers. Stop thinking you’re smarter than the 130 years of the game because an intern with a graphing calculator showed you a graph and a number with a lot of decimal places. Analytics have their place, but throw those damn reports and cute suggestions out the window come playoff time. If this club could avoid crapping the bed in every big game it plays, I don’t think anyone would care if it were done by walks and bunt singles. People are sick of this spineless, “oh well, we’ll get ‘em next year” approach.

I agree with the poster above on Baldelli’s pitching staff management. If he’s going to continue to inexplicably pull effective starting pitchers after 75 pitches, you need a better bullpen. Rogers has been awful for over a year now. Romo needs to go unless he’ll accept a low leverage role. May will likely be gone. You need someone other than Duffey that you can count on to get big outs. I don’t think this conversation really means a whole lot at this point. It’s clear this team doesn’t have the horses for a playoff run. Not even close, despite the BS Baldelli is trying to inject. Nobody can stay healthy. Nobody has the fortitude to collect a clutch hit in a big game. I don’t fault them for going after Donaldson, but that contract is now an albatross. We basically just offered two years of on the job training to Baldelli while we burned an elite roster. We hired not 1, but 2, baseball “geniuses” for the front office. Why are they considered that, exactly? Where’s the difference vs. Terry Ryan? They’re just starting to sound like a magic 8-ball of trendy analytical/corporate cliches at this point. Slightly different path. Exact same result. What do I want? Stop half-assing things. If you’re saying you’re going all-in, go all-in. If you are even considering a half-step back payroll-wise, blow it up. Trade anything of value and play Lewis, Larnach, Kirilloff, etc. The last thing I want is a repeat of the 00s, which I fear is the inevitable result here. They’ll never spend enough to get over the top. They’ll never blow it up and suffer through empty ballparks for three years. If you haven’t gathered, I’m sort of unhappy with this club right now. I’m at the point where I’m ready to bring in a real, hard-ass baseball manager who isn’t afraid to tell his players the truth. I’m very close to calling for the FO to ditch this New-Age feelings experiment with Baldelli. Everyone loves to make excuses for him (yes it’s his fault if the lineup doesn’t produce....find a combination that can), but I put the playoff failure of the last two years squarely on him. They may be the worst managed playoff series I’ve ever seen.

There are variables in the equation left out that make it much more likely to have this historically incompetent run. 1). The budget. Until the Donaldson signing this year, the team has really never signed a significant free agent. 2). Prospect hoarding. Until this year the team has never made a significant trade. 1 and 2 above consistently put this team behind the 8-ball against teams that legitimately supplement their rosters. They’ve never had a chance against a team like the Yankees in the playoffs. 3). Awful management. Until recently, they’ve been lagging behind in analytics. Now that they’ve caught up in that department, they have a manager that routinely makes awful decisions in game. The litany of low baseball IQ plays in that one two game series was off the charts. That’s a reflection of poor coaching. Outside of the game, he holds nobody accountable. His lazy (yes, I’m calling lazy) approach has been lauded around here as a contributing factor to this teams success. It’s actually holding them back, IMO. When you run things as poorly as this club historically has, every game isn’t a 50/50 proposition, which is how you’re calculating the odds. In reality, these series were all over well before they started. Surprising that they haven’t lucked into a win? Maybe. Surprising that they’ve been this historically incompetent? Nope. All of the people who have been on the Pohlads case were called unintelligent by the “enlightened” fans. It’s becoming clear which side has the most firm grip on reality.

My thoughts: Baldelli doesn’t get enough of the blame. The guy is lauded at every turn. When things go poorly, excuses are made for him. IMO, the guy hasn’t been a very good manager here. He’s been handed an elite MLB team, with which anyone could succeed and he’s done nothing. Until he proves something, I’m out of the camp that approves of his style. His teams show no urgency and clearly can’t handle big situations. It’s embarrassing the way this team fold like a card table in these playoffs game. They’re scared little boys. Also, how can Romo blowing the series surprise anyone? Aside from a short stretch with Rays, he’s been mediocre since he left the giants. It’s clear watching him that he’s been walking a tightrope for some time now. He’s been downright bad since running his mouth at the Indians. That’s said, I don’t blame Romo. I have to put it in Baldelli for either 1) Not seeing the obvious, or 2) Being afraid to tell Romo he’s not getting the 8th-9th innings of a tight playoff game anymore. Same goes for Rogers. He’s been bad for a significant period of time now. But, he got 2 huge innings in the series (while Wilser got none). I feel like I just watched the most poorly managed playoff series in the history of the MLB playoffs.

Well, with Buxton and Donaldson both out and Berrios wound tighter than a spring....I think the guys would be safe scheduling tee times starting tomorrow. The already routine incompetence of this FO to field competitive playoff teams is getting tiresome. I’ve heard enough excuses. If they can’t find the players to get it done, find someone who can.

I think calling some of these things an overreaction is an overreaction. That was playoff loss 17 in a row. We’ve been dominated in the playoffs, and that’s now including multiple playoff appearances for nearly everyone on this team as a Twin. On top of that, it’s at home with your ace pitching against a team that was under .500 overall and awful on the road. These are the big games. These are the ones that matter. At some point, if you keep folding in these games, you are what you are. It wasn’t just bad luck or a bad night for the offense. We saw stupid managerial decisions errors...a basic inability to consistently play fundamentally sound baseball. We’ve seen it all year. One thing I’m not seeing much of in terms of a complaint: Why the hell couldnt Arraez come up with that throw to second? It wouldn’t have taken a spectacular play. Polanco needs to make that play cleanly, but it’s not a big ask for a marginally good play to save the error there.

That’s what gets me....the selectivity of the tragedy (on both sides). It’s fraudulent. It happens before the facts come out. Or, facts are ignored entirely. Assumptions are made. Only certain beneficial fragments of the story are used (some of the headlines I’ve seen are abhorrent and unethical, at best). Words are twisted. Two cities in our neck of the woods burned last night. These are our brothers and sisters (any race, religion, creed). It’s only escalating (on both sides). Over 30 people have been murdered in these riots (but it’s not a big deal until it fits the narrative like the shooter in Kenosha). The left wouldnt denounce the violence until it showed up the polls, but leveraged it when they thought it helped (truly disgusting). The right is villianizing the entire movement over the actions of relatively few (again, disgusting). There’s no discourse, here. Both sides have devolved into a truly shameful lack of integrity. It’s really sad diagnostic for humanity. People on both sides somehow carry on with a feeling of righteousness. News flash, both extremes are extremely dangerous and a bane on our society.

The NFL settled for PR purposes, not in any way an admission of guilt. Let’s at least be honest here (on both sides). Really tired of half-truths (from both sides) in an attempt to gain a moral high ground and feeling of superiority (it accomplishes the opposite, fools task). Full disclosure for the mob (not that I care what you think), but I fully respect and endorse the right to exercise free speech and protest for justifiable causes. That’s America.

I would be over the moon if we got Bundy. Won’t happen, but that would be a phenomenal move. At this point, we’re basically in the playoffs. To me, any acquisition is solely for the playoffs. My assumption is that Hill, Odorizzi, Berrios, Dobnak, and Pineda will all be healthy and available to pitch in the playoffs. Same assumption for Donaldson, Garver, Kepler, etc. They already acquired a (underwhelming) utility infielder. I just can’t see them adding rotation/lineup pieces. I think they should go after bullpen help. I’m not overly enthused about Romo as an ultra-high leverage guy at this point in his career. Rogers hasn’t been great for a significant period of time now. May is inconsistent. Those guys are all good, but Duffey is the guy I‘dfeel comfortable with in a tight playoff game.

Huge win. Phenomenal job by the bullpen. Sano is incredible right now. Some of the exit velo numbers I’ve seen thrown around are wild.

Sano heating up right now is huge. With all of the injuries, it could save the Twins hopes to win the division. The HRs are nice, but the walks and singles/doubles back up the middle are very encouraging. When he’s in one of these hot streaks, Sano is incredibly fun to watch.

We got an Ace to replace Berrios tonight?

We’ve been trying for years now to rationalize Berrios’ performance not living up to expectations. The most absurd on the scale being the “working too hard” schtick, while any other great athlete will typically credit late nights training while everyone else was sleeping, etc). It’s time we adjust our expectations. He’s not an ace. He’s a good pitcher. Sometimes he’s great. But, he has an issue consistently commanding his pitches. That’s the bottom line. This is why relying on pitching projections is a problem. This is why many around here, like me, have long advocated aggression in the pursuit of free agent pitching. We’re in big trouble, here. I’m not feeling super comfy about a Maeda, Dobnak one-two punch at Yankee Stadium in the ALCS.

I think Berrios will come around. With everyone healthy (Hill, Maeda, Odorizzi, Dobnak, Pineda, Bailey, Berrios), he could potentially fall out of the rotation if he doesn’t.

I love it. It’s not even about exerting your superiority, it’s creating an advantage out of thin air. If you get someone flustered and frustrated in a baseball game, you’ve won. That goes for both sides of the ball. Baseball is a game in which you need to be loose with a clear head. That said, I’m also in it for “the fight.” You want to run your mouth, I’m running it back. You want to pretend that the only reason you can’t touch my slider is the ump? I’ll let you know what I think about that as well. You’re not showing me up on the field with you’re whining. Not only will I get in your head and mess up your game, but I’ll advocate for buzzing your tower as a message.

Ben Revere was a Twins’ first round pick. I have a hard time classifying a first round pick (who are given every chance to succeed) as an “underdog.” Dobnak had another solid outing today. He’s now in the neighborhood of a 1.50 ERA in over 50 IP as a major league starter.

It may help if Baldelli quit putting the the guy with a .150 batting average and lowest slugging percentage on the team (Garver is being out slugged by Adrianza and Cave) in the lead off spot. Even with Baldelli slotting our worst hitter lead off and our hottest hitter 8th/9th, it is not the offense that’s the issue, IMO. We have no starting pitching, and the bullpen is very tip-heavy. That’s what will hold this team back, as per historical status quo. Our “ace” (Berrios) is not a very good pitcher. Nobody else can stay healthy or unsuspended. I’m not to the point of blaming Baldelli. But, I’m starting to think he needs to be questioned on some things, which is probably viewed as blasphemy. Is he doing anything to help, or is he just a product of a phenomenal roster? I’m starting to wonder.

I could be wrong, but I interpret this as a clear sign that Donaldson isn’t coming back anytime soon.

Barring injury, the only scenario I can envision is Rooker or Kirillof at 1B because Sano struggles. I don’t think that’s very likely. It would be excellent to have Larnach or Kirillof as the 4th OF, in offensive terms. But, with Cave you don’t have to move Kepler out of RF if Buxton goes down. I’m guessing that, combined with service time, will prevent us from seeing them.

If the Twins are adding pitching, I’d rather see a starter. I’m just not confident Hill and Odorizzi will stay healthy. I’m not convinced Bailey will be effective or healthy. Berrios hasn’t appeared to have taken the steps we hoped. Maeda has been great, but the Dodgers saw something that prevented them from putting him in the playoff rotation. If Bauer can be had for a reasonable price, I’d gladly take him. Robbie Ray is still out there. Mike Minor. Jeff Samardjza. I’d take any of them. That’s said, I think the chances of the Twins doing something is close to nil.

It’s a fairly simple matter of market interference. The virus and shortened season have affected the market. The intersection of the supply/demand curve is way out of whack. Sure, there will be sellers. But, they’re not going to selling at the drastic discount that will be required for a buyer. Scouting reports on minor leaguers will be incomplete/outdated. Very few of these high-end decision makers will be comfortable taking a player that hasn’t been seen by a scout in a year. You’re getting a fraction of the output from the acquired major leaguer compared to a normal year. You’ll get a handful of starts at best from a starter (if on an expiring contract). Then, you have the odd playoff structure. You’re less likely to have an acquired star player payoff a championship. I’m sure there will be some minor moves. But, it wouldn’t shock me if there wasn’t a single trade aside from marginal players on expiring deals for cash.

That measurement of Sano’s home run is absolutely absurd. There is zero chance that thing was under 475, let alone 450. I’m glad I’m not the only one who sees the managerial malfeasance of batting Garver lead off and Buxton 8th right now. Baldelli has had this pattern, IMO, of overthinking things at times (the bullpen, the lineup, etc.). Take the Joe Maddon approach. But your hottest hitters in prominent lineup spots until they’re not longer your hottest hitters. Simple. It’s not controversial in any way to maximize the number of plate appearances by guys that are in a groove over the course of the year. Could be the difference in a significant amount of runs/wins.

By the way, I was a huge fan of the SKOR North Twins show. Great show. The content is now unlistenable without you and Ramie. Zulgad’s constant click-baitey “cool contrarian” act paired with the insufferably condescending Phil Mackey has destroyed what they had going there. Glad to see you land over here. Are you/are you planning to be involved in any more Twins podcasts?