Darius

I haven’t looked into much myself, but Gleeman noted on a recent podcast that his underlying numbers suggest some incredible bad luck (a wildly low BABIP with exit velo numbers not far off from last year). I’d prefer Baldelli not bat him lead off against lefties when he’s slugging under .200 (especially with Buxton now OPSing higher than Nelson Cruz on the season).....but I’m not overly concerned long-term. Stick him down in the 7-8 hole and let him work his way out of it.

Let’s not forget the ump calling three balls, not even really close, strikes to ring up Kepler with 2 on and 1 out. The game changed right then. It should’ve been bases loaded with 1 out and Polanco up, to 2 down with runners on first and second. That was the worst called AB I’ve seen from an ump in my life. I’m sure this opinion isn’t popular, but Baldelli needs to get after the ump there. A mistake every now and then is understandable....but that ump has no business being out there.

Dobnak is a phenomenal story, for a few reasons: 1). He came out of nowhere. Has never been a highly touted prospect. That’s not something that happens anymore (rarely), for a number of reasons (more information, better player analysis, etc). 2) Similar to 1 - nobody gave him a chance. I didn’t. I wasn’t happy he started a playoff game. I’ve long thought that if he’s a rotation fixture, we’re in trouble. I couldn’t have been more wrong. 3). Of course, the Uber driver thing has become a national story. 4) The way he presents himself. His mustache and glasses make him a folk hero, in a way. Brilliant self-marketing on his part, whether intentional or not. 5). He’s showing the league that the power-pitching trends shouldn’t be gospel. How many guys like Dobnak don’t get a chance because they don’t fit that mold? Really impressive guy. Very inspirational. On top of all of that...a damn good pitcher.

After this last week, I’m not a big fan of shipping off prospects for anything. The playoffs are going to be such a crapshoot, and the way this team is playing right now the World Series is a pipe dream. They could change my mind pretty quickly. It also doesn’t make much sense to trade for a couple weeks of an expiring contract for a top prospect. Also, you could be shut down for an extended period at any time like the Cardinals. It’s possible that there are no playoffs. Lastly, is anyone ever really out of it in a 60 game season with 8 teams from each league making the playoffs? It just takes one sustained winning streak. I just can’t see any FOs buying or selling anything significant. It’s too expensive on the buy-side, and nobody is going to discount the asking price on the selling side.

Losing 4 in a row to a couple of the worst teams of baseball would be discouraging in a 162 game season. Doing it in a 60 game season is a major problem. I’m sorry, but until Berrios proves he pitch like an ace, he isn’t one. He just can’t seem to put it all together.

He’s been very good this year. We’d be in some trouble without him, Donaldson’s injury (although Adrianza is pretty good as well). I feel that Gonzalez probably shouldn’t be playing right now for obvious reasons. But, It’s hard not to admire what he can do defensively.

No matter who wins it, in 2020s current climate, it’ll be extra special for that fan base.

The optics on this have changed. Presley’s injuries and the Twins going from worst to first in terms of bullpen rankings take any sort of edge off. I guess I’m just not as high on Alcala. He could be great, but the chances of him reaching Presley’s level (see stats above) are pretty slim. That’s not any sort of discredit to Alcala....Presley has been top-shelf when healthy. Same for Celestino. The guy may be a nice player someday. But, his track record to this point isn’t blowing anyone anyway. It’s hard to see him suddenly exploding and becoming a superstar. I’m not really arguing the Twins “lost” the trade. Presley can’t seem to stay healthy. But, a healthy Presley would look pretty nice between Duffey/May/Romo and Rogers at the back end. You’re basically shortening playoff games by one more inning. That’s not insignificant in the short-term and is likely more than they’ll ever get out of Alcala/Celestino (if he can pitch). Also, we know the team is great now. I’d rather have the known commodity now (if he can pitch) than the unknowns. Alcala and Celestino becoming average-to-good players after the window closes (hypothetically) isn’t a preferred outcome, IMO.

I’m not a fan of blowing 9th inning leads to the worst team in baseball.

I thought about Trevor Bauer and his long-toss when I heard guys were throwing at a drone from the bullpen. He would be a serious anti-aircraft weapon. But, seriously, police(local/state/federal) and stadium security have a plan for a potentially dangerous drone(s) at the stadium. It’s interesting that it made it that far. Anyway, another good game. Kepler and Cruz are animals.

If you would’ve told me the following before the season: -Josh Donaldson and Byron Buxton will miss a number of games with injury. -Rich Hill, Jake Odorizzi, and Homer Bailey all land on the IL by the end of the first week with two five inning starts combined between the three. -Mitch Garver and Miguel Sano will hit less than .150 with OPS below .600. -Luis Arraez’s OBP (not batting average) will be less than .300. -Jose Berrios will have an ERA of 7.00. I would’ve asked you what you think we’ll be getting in return at the deadline. Instead, we have the second best winning percentage and run differential in baseball. Unbelievable.

ESPN’s power rankings have the Twins 3rd begins the Dodgers and Yankees. Not sure I agree with the Dodgers being #1, considering they’re not even in first place in their weak division, split a 4 gamer at home to the Giants, etc. But, not a bad place to be after week 1.

Duffey, Stashak, Romo, and Rogers combined thus far: 15 IP, 1 BB, 4 H, 0 R, 23 K. Not bad.

This bullpen, especially this year, is a massive weapon. I think it’s approaching the level of Kansas City’s the year the won the World Series. Rogers might be the best reliever in baseball right now. He looks phenomenal. Duffey is elite, and looks phenomenal. Stashak very, very good right now. Romo, Clippard, and May are all very good, and can be used comfortably. Baldelli can shorten these games significantly.

Awesome response to last night. Dobnak just keeps getting outs. How impressive/valuable is Adrianza? Can play anywhere, solid switch hitter, etc. Duffey and Rogers (unknown to most baseball fans outside of the AL Central) continue to dominate. It’s been really fun to watch these guys emerging from relative obscurity. The bad news is that losing Donaldson for a significant period of time is a possibility. That would be a killer. His presence and professional approach are taking this offense to another level.

Some context is needed for “swinging out of the zone,” and what that means. Is that ball bouncing in the dirt or a foot outside? Or a half inch outside of the zone. How many of those swings outside the zone produced hits relative to some other players. Maybe X player is swinging at X number fewer pitches outside of the zone, but it’s producing C fewer hits, OPS, more Ks, etc. I’m not sure looking at 42% in 5 games vs 42% over 162 given all of the possible variables is even a remotely reliable way to definitively say, “See, Eddie lied.” You have umps that call strikes outside of the zone, forcing players to chase a little (again, 5-6 games). Was the swing outside the zone with zero strikes, and in an area the hitter can handle? Or, a two strike flailing swing. For example, Eddie hit a home run against the cards on a ball just off the plate inside. That’s not a negative outcome. That’s a better outcome than letting it go and rolling over something down and away. How many of those are built into Eddie’s 42% historically vs. some other random with a 32%. At the end of the day, I don’t really care as long he’s hitting .280 with 30+ bombas. Seems like people have forgotten....that’s pretty good. Especially for a guy probably batting 6th-7th in the lineup most nights.

Really fine music choices. Particularly Donaldson’s. Nothing like getting pumped up by objectifying women by referring to them as “hoes,” repeatedly, grouping up with your friends in an alley to commit a murder/drive by shooting (with his “toolie”, good times), ingesting so many drugs he’ll be “high until next week” (might want to look out for the fentanyl that’s killing people in droves), and don’t forget the bank robbery (a guy’s gotta eat). What a classic. Perfect for the families with young children.

I’m excited for this one. Hill is fun to watch.

I’m a little concerned about the whole staff right now. Hitters are supposed to be “behind” according to experts, and we’ve allowed 15 runs (and 6-7 HRs) in two days. Two of the first three starters have already been scratched (Odorizzi and Hill). Not an ideal start to the season. Taking the rubber match in convincing fashion today would ease some concerns.

Hopefully this talk honestly addresses real issues and concerns, with real, practical plans to resolve any issues noted. What I’m really running out of patience for is public figures that are doing nothing more than virtue signaling and stirring up animosity by shifting bigotry (a lot of anti-white and anti-Semitic garbage being spewed that is called an illegitimate concern right now - very frightening). It’s doing the opposite of helping. Throwing stones from their literal ivory towers (gated communities, personal security, etc.). It’s further dividing and inciting violent/politically charged exchanges, not bringing people together. It’s creating standoffs, not open discussion. We’re seeing racial divides increase, not decrease. Crime is skyrocketing around the country, and insane politicians and political figures are condoning/enabling it because they’re scared to death of being called a racist and being cancelled by extreme left Twitter mobs (mostly comprised of privilege, white suburbanite twenty-somethings trying to cover their own rear end). People are calling out peoples addresses, children’s names, etc. How long have people been marching in streets (some peacefully, some violently)? Have we heard one honest, real solution or plan? Honestly, give me one. I’m sorry, but it’s nothing but political/corporate public relations opportunism. The legitimate gripes are being drown out by corporations, politicians, and disingenuous celebrities virtue signaling in an attempt to leverage a moral high ground for self-gain. Shame on these sick, sick people. Once we’re done addressing this, why don’t we also make sure we get Asian, Native, Latino, and White players proportionately represented in the NBA and NFL. I’ve never felt the need to go down that road, but you can’t have it both ways. You can’t push these initiatives to set race quotas only when they benefit you or your “group,” or it’s a fraudulent cause. You can’t only let certain “groups” have a say. It’s counter productive. It’s for your personal gain, a power grab, not a righteous cause. It’s replacing one broken system with another. People’s willingness to listen is waning. The nation’s attention was captured. It was decided that yelling, chiding, accusing, canceling, was the best approach. You aren’t keeping anyone’s attention by constantly insulting them (no matter the veracity of the claim). Do you think some broke, white guy working two jobs to feed his kids is going to “change” as a result of billionaire Pharrell Williams from his cabana telling him he’s so awful, ignorant, and racist that he can’t see how much more “privileged” he is? The time of the perversion of these serious race-based issues for PR purposes has to end now. It’s sickening. Wake up. Grow up. Make real, constructive change.

I recently heard Gleeman talking about this on his podcast. Very interesting. Very promising. It could be the beard, different camera angle, etc. but Smeltzer also looks noticeably thicker to me. That can’t hurt.

He was pretty darn good last last year, except for a 9 spot against the Yankees in July. There were nearly 60 runs scored in that 3 game series. Combine two of the most prolific home run hitting clubs in history, a juiced ball, and some thick Minnesota in July humidity.....and no pitcher on earth is safe. I feel pretty comfortable throwing that one out of the population to get a feel for how good he actually was.

I completely agree with this. He’s not Billy Hamilton for crying out loud. Some want you to think that. He was the number 1 prospect in all of baseball being compared to Mike Trout in AA a few years ago....lets take a deep breath. We saw him absolutely crush the ball in the fall of 2017 (which worked him into the top 20 in MVP voting). We saw him hit the ball very well last year (.827 OPS, 114 OPS+, .513 slugging, 10 HR, 14 SB, 48 runs, 46 RBI, and led the league in doubles for a significant portion of around 300 plate appearances). Between that time he’s been injured, had his approach screwed with by coaches, etc. When he’s on base, he’s a nightmare. Any opposing pitcher will tell you that. He’s already shown his value offensively at the major league level. I get people are frustrated with injuries, but some of the statements made are just ridiculous. He has zero value offensively? Nobody that follows the Twins and knows baseball can legitimately believe that’s true. If so, you haven’t looked at the stats. In 2016 he put up 1.5 oWAR in 330 PAs, in 2017 2.7 oWAR in 511 PAs, in 2019 2.1 WAR in 295 PAs. His only negative or neutral value oWAR seasons were 2015 (-0.2 in 138 PAs) and 2018 (-0.6 in 94 PAs). Offensive runs above replacement? -2 in 2015, 15 in 2016, 27 in 2017, -5 in 2018, 21 in 2019 (relate to PAs above). Clearly, a valuable offensive player when in the field. Borderline All-Star offensive player in CF for multiple years extrapolating over full seasons, with no consideration to defense at all. We saw the same thing regarding Sano. Very few rational fans were still giving the guy a shot after injury plagued seasons.

Bullet dodged for now.

I’ve been hoping someone would try something for a while. There’s so much data out there regarding the impact of facing hitters multiple times in a game. I understand there are a few elite exceptions, but why wouldn’t a team struggling to put together 5 competent starters do more of this? My only fear is that they’ll go too far in trying to adhere to this plan. I don’t want to see a guy like Berrios getting pulled after the 4th while cruising.