mike8791

So for the dubious distinction of navigating a first place team to last in a weak AL Central Division, Falvine gets rated a B. Talk about Minnesota Nice!!! While some apologists on this board can blame the abbreviated 2020 season, injuries, bad luck for this miserable season, what about the accountability factor? Someone should be held responsible for what is the most disappointing season since 1961. Pohlad is clearly delusional, or just doesn't care, but I"m surprised so many serious fans on TD are so generous in their ratings. Walter's article clearly illustrates the fundamental problem here - ownership is content with mediocrity, resulting in sticking with his FO picks far too long. Yes, give Falvey one more year to right the ship, but without a clear directive from JP, how many think a quick rebound is in the offing?

The only encouraging thing about this year's pitching staff is the late emergence of Ober and Ryan as likely members of next year's rotation. Up until yesterday, Ryan has appeared to have the highest ceiling of any of our prospects. I'm not panicking over one stinker, but unfortunately, this is it for 2021 and Detroit is not one of the better offenses in the AL, albeit a little better than Cubs and Indians. Not having seen the game, what went wrong yesterday? I know the rx to this question is "don't panic" but still shell-shocked over this abysmal year, I'm wondering if Ryan is the real deal?

Not taking away from Miranda's extraordinary year, but isn't it premature to anoint him "an emerging star"? Without major league experience, it would be foolish to trade either Sano or Donaldson on a team that has been offensively challenged this year. If we can trust Pohlad's assertion that 2022 is not going to be a rebuilding year(big ??? there), then expecting Miranda to step right in to the starting lineup on Day 1 would be foolish. Let's ease him into the lineup rather than adding more pressure at the get-go; after all, this guy has had one great season after several of mediocrity. If he continues his 2021 performance, they'll find a spot for him. This lineup has lots of holes!!

http://Which free agent pitcher do you think the Pohlads should commit 5 years and 125 to 150 million of their dollars to? There are 4 FA pitchers who are young enough to slot in as top starters : Rodon, Stroman, Ray, and Gausman. They deserve at least 4-5 year, $20-25MM/yr contracts. Frankly, I can't see the Sox, Jays, or Giants not resigning their guys, which leaves Stroman as most likely available. Another arm I'd be all over is Thor but consensus seems that Mets will offer him a QO. If none of these guys are possible, then I'd go after more of a stopgap like Greinke or Verlander and hope that our young bloods would be ready to lead the staff in 2023. That's it for starter FA signings. There are too many other needs on this team to go big on two big FAs. At least one closer-type should be signed(Kimbrel would be my choice @ $15MM/yr). A second proven reliever in the $5-10MM range would be a nice add, given Rogers injuries and Duffy's wildness. As many have said, signing a FA SS would be nice, but clearly we can't sign one of the top ones, given our multiple pitching needs, so either we get lucky with someone like Baez willing to sign for a modest short term or we go with a fielder-first FA. While I agree with LA Vikes on need for a #2 rotation arm, reality says we have to go the trade route. A combination of Arraez, Garver or Jeffers or Kepler, and one of our good MI or pitching prospects should pry a young major league with #2 potential. Levine should already be talking to Miami who has an abundance of pitching and holes in their lineup, perhaps San Diego who might shed someone like Clevinger, Snell or Darvish, or even the Dodgers with a huge surplus of both top end arms as well as A prospects. It can be done. Just not confident that the current org. up to the task.

Terry://Remember that the front office cannot just "lasso" two top starters. The pitchers have to be willing to play in Minnesota. Recent history has suggested that many top pitchers are using free agency to move closer to their roots or to fulfill a need to be near horses. C'mon Terry! This is a lame excuse for past inaction. Sure, there are guys like Wheeler, Ohtani, etc. who prefer certainn locales, but FA is all about the money. This ownership has to open their wallet, authorize the FO to spend what they think they need this offseason, and then the Wonder Boys must decide who among the FAs they need to head up a rotation on a contending team, followed by a quick strike(as opposed to waiting for the dust to settle to pick up a bargain) and be willing to overpay for the right pitcher. Aren't you tired of all the feints this and past FOs have made to "bid" on a desired FA, with the all-too-predictable non-result.?

Ted, understand importance of depth, but for a contender, it must be quality depth - pitchers who can step in and at the very least, give the team at least a reasonable chance of a W. Unfortunately, there is not one on this list who seem able to do this, at least based on their minor league /brief major league performance. At best, these are all AAAA players who will do nothing to move the needle. #6-10 "starters" will have to either come from the bargain basement bin or from our strong current prospect list, e.g, Winder, Woods-Richardson, Balazovic, even Varland. With that said, if August/September performance is a decent indicator of future performance, Ober and Ryan look like pretty good bets to at least be #4/#5 starters next year, and Pineda should be resigned to slot in the middle. I for one have a little more confidence now in next year's rotation than I did at the trade deadline, even though the loss of Maeda is huge. The big question is whether this FO has the chops to lasso two top starters? They have the payroll space to add one of the top FA starters and excess positional players/top prospects to land a #2 starter via trade. With an improving pen and a couple of astute moves, I feel contending in 2022 is more of a possibility now than 2 months ago, but relying on the names above should not be in the plan going forward.

Max is who he is. After 6+ years in majors, he has not shown much improvement. With the Twins dire needs for pitching, his greatest value now is a trade piece in procuring a young, major league pitcher with some demonstrated success in the bigs. No, he would not be the centerpiece, but a vital cog in a package deal. While our OF situation is far from settled, assuming Bux is resigned, we have a promising backup in Celestino, and a bevy of prospects like Kirillof, Larnach, Rooker, and even Gordon now who can play a decent corner OF with at least the same offense that Max has provided. Withb a great fielding CF like Bux or Celestino, the Twins can afford to sacrifice some corner defense if it leads to overall team improvment. If this FO is agressive, a Kepler, Arraez or Jeffers/Garver + one of our 10 good pitching prospects should yield a top arm. Could Kepler go on a tear in the future? Sure, but unlikely. He is a much more valuable trade piece - relatively young, cost controlled, ability to play multiple positions with decent power. That combination is still worth something. It's up to the FO to Max -imize this value.

Nice work, Bean. While it's certainly easy to quibble with some of your grades, I would guess most of us would agree their 5 years of drafting have been well below average. Yes, we can give them the benefit of the doubt on certain circumstances, e.g., one year of development was lost, it takes more than 4 years of minor league ball to establish a player's chops at the big league level, etc., etc..... But there is no rational argument for this FO's failure to develop at least one bullpen arm in 4+ years. This is a pretty low bar, but Falvey can't even pass this one. We each have our pet peeves, like you, and frankly they lost me when drafting Lewis #1 overall, in a year with several "can't miss" rotation arms( Gore, McKay, Pearson, Wright) Lewis might yet develop but his clock is running out and he appears to have whiffed on his chance to fill the all-important SS position, that is still a black hole 4+ years later. Throw in two other highly questionnable # 1 picks in Cavacao and Sabato, and no wonder there is so much grumblling from the fan base, especially when you add in their massive failures in FA. As many have said before, give these guys one more year, but its sink or swim time. One other point not addressed and that is the ability of the scouting director. Sean Johnson was promoted 2 months after Falvey took over. The former Head Scout, Deron Johnson, was kicked upstairs after 10 years in charge. While D. Johnson had some terrible drafts, especially among pitchers, he did well in 2012(Buxton, Berrios, Duffy, Rogers) and 2016 (Kirillof, Rortvedt, Jose Miranda, Akil Baddoo, Jax, Balazovic and Rooker). Yes, these players have had longer to develop(and some are still prospects), but those two years alone put him ahead of the current Johnson. My question: with scouting so critical to building a repeatable contender: should Ryans' scouting system have been more thoroughly overhauled? I realize hindsight is always 20;20, but the failure to keep the window open, especially for a mid-market team, starts with the draft and the scouting director in charge of the drafts.

If any of these above moves represent the biggest trades this FO makes in the offseason, color 2022 a rebuilding year(and likely the the last year Falvine is associated with the Twins). As others have said, these guys are all projects similar to some of our top prospects. What we need to be significantly more competitive next year are top-of-the-rotation pieces. We have the money for one top FA and position players to trade for another established, young pitcher. Nothing wrong with these type of posts, but I sure would like to aim a bit higher. This contentment with mediocrity, after 19 straight playoff losses is frustrating to an old fan who well remembers the excitement of 87/91. Do I think this FO will make the moves necessary to return this team to a contender in 2022? No, nor do I consider their employment beyond next year a step in the right direction. Hope I'm wrong, but I'm afraid it's just not in this organization's DNA(from ownership on down) to take the necessary risks to do what should be done.

Have to add my No to the chorus here. Why give up a starting, albeit average, corner OF for a guy who is not a quality SS? Our list of middle IF prospects who fall short as SSs goes on and on - Polanco, Gordon, Lewis(if scouting reports are accurate), nor do Miranda or Martin seem to fit well at arguably the most important defensive position. Might as well resign Simmons for another gap year while we hope one of younger SS prospects emerge as a long term answer. If I'm trading Kepler, I want to use him as a key piece in acquiring as young, controlled starter who has already shown potential to be a #1 or, at worse, a #2 next year. That is a far more pressing need if FO really intends to return to contention next year.

There are no "underrated" Twins players this year. Underperforming most definitely. Ober is by no means underrated. He is a promising prospect, but came to the Twins with little expecations. Thielbar has turned things around, but so has most of the pen once the Twins fell out of contention. What is his %inherited runs scored? Well below average last time I looked. He is not a core bullpen arm that can be counted on in late inning situations. And lastly, Arraez's defensive liabilities and lack of power seem to limit him to a utility type player, unless Polanco or Donaldson are traded. No, best use of Arraez is as a trade piece in an attempt to acquire an above average starter. If anyone should be added to an underappreciated list, it might be Farrell, who is been pretty consistent, albeit in a SSS. But that's it. The number of disappointments far outweigh the pleasant surprises in this dreary season.

Bean, thanks for the data that supports those of us who feel FA is only a fool's game for teams like the Twins emphasizing bargains rather than quality. The big question is whether this losing operating philosophy stems from Pohlad's tight-fistedness or incompetence of the FO. My guess is this past futility reflects more on ownership. Pohlad's banking background seems to inhibit him from foregoing short term profits instead of investing in long term success. Of course, I cannot possibly know what JP is thinking, but the results speak for themselves. He hires guys like Ryan and Falvey who share his bargain basement outlook on spending. Ryan(at least in his first go-round) proved adept at some shrewd trades and had some drafting success. Likewise, Falvey has acquired some good pitching vis the trade route(drafting success TBD). Basically, the problem is Pohlad's leadership in not enunciating an operating philosophy that would allow for the team to be legitimate contenders for a World Championship. No, Ryan and Falvey don't get free passes here, either. Their unwillingness to make some significant mid-season trades that might have elevated an already competitive club into a legitimate WS contender has been a glaring weakness for 20 years. Me thinks we have a two-headed monster : a passive owner who looks at the P&L statement as the end-all to his stewardship and risk-averse GM's who are selected because of basic agreement with this "don't-rock-the-boat" approach. The results speak for themselves, not just this year, but for the last 18 years of zero playoff success.

Just two thoughts: 1. Maybe a good thing Buxton sluggish in his return. If he returned like he left - firing on all cylinders - he might be much harder for Twins to sign. This way, his expectations might be tempered somewhat. Signing Buxton is still the most important move going forward. 2. Regarding Simmons, wonder if Twins should sign Iglesias who was just released by Angels. Would like to see in last month if he is a possibility for the needed fill-in on 2022 team. Seems like Simmons has expended any goodwill and Iglesias seems to be better offensively, at least, as well as being a better fielder than any one now on the roster.

Like your analyses! Agree with the likely ceiling for top Twin prospects. If Winder can stay healthy, he seems to have best potential among our top 10 prospects. All the rest look like back-end starters or potential relievers(Duran, Canterino). Sure, there could be a big surprise awaiting, but how likely are one of these guys going to add a superior third pitch relatively late in their development career? As bean states, this analysis makes it even more imperative that FO goes after two starters this offseason not currently in the Twin's system. As many of us said that's a high hill to climb, but doable nonetheless.

Matt, afraid I have to strongly disagree here. First, there is plenty of payroll space to spend on one top FA. With about an $80MM starting forecast going into the offseason, there should be enough($20-25MM) for a top FA pitcher in his prime, resign Buxton($10MM in incentives), sign a proven closer, e.g., Kimbrel at $15MM). Plus, resigning Pineda or some comparable #3($10MM), a stop gap SS($5-10MM) and additional proven bullpen piece($5MM). Is a $150MM payroll excessive for a mid market team? Not if you want to return to competitiveness. Secondly, if the FO can think big for once, there is no reason they couldn't pull a Preller and risk giving up some prize prospect(s) plus one or two of our current roster to net an up and coming major league starter to slot in the #2 spot. We have an overload of corner OFs, middle IFs and maybe even catchers. If Falvey can't secure an emerging starter with a package of Arraez, Kepler/Larnach or Jeffers, plus one of our top 10 prospects, then we've got the wrong man in the position. Sure, we'd have to overpay for the right guy, but I'd rather do that than wait for our prospects to contribute enough to make this team a true contender. Relying on prospects alone is likely a sure way to become the Pirates of the AL Central. The other fallacy in your argument is that if we took the more moderate path, wouldn't our window on offense be closing by 2024? Donaldson is gone, so is Sano and Garver in all likelihood. Can these guys be adequately replaced by Kirillof, Larnach, Martin, Miranda by 2024? And can the pitching prospects you mentioned be likely to form the core of a contender's staff by then? How has dumpster diving/waiting for pitching prospects to develop worked for this organization in the last 10 years? Let's dream big for a change!

Interesting take! Thanks! Noticed Iglesias DFA'd by Angels. While his defensive stats are down this year, seems he'd make a better stopgap than Simmons now and next year. Should Twins bite?

Nick N: I'm amazed by how many people can already say with assurance how all these pitchers will perform next year. I bet you wouldn't have viewed Rodon as a 2021 impact guy one year ago. Or Gausman two years ago. Things change. People get healthy and turn corners. I'm not recommending anyone specifically, I'm just saying that quality arms are sourced from that middle tier of starters every year. Can the Twins make the right pick and take the right steps to get them there? That's the question. Are you saying we should ignore current success of these pitchers? Granted, there are no guarantees, but FO should be looking at probabilities here - who gives them the best chance to rebound into contention next year? Is it Cobb/Heaney or Rodon/Thor/Gausman? As many respondents on this post have already mentioned, there is no way a cautious approach to the offseason will get the Twins back to respectability - not with all the holes in the pitching staff alone. The real questions are: will ownership open up their wallet to allow for out-of-the-box thinking and is Falvey the guy to succeed at this process? Nibbling at the edges in FA/trading is one of the reasons this franchise has set the all-time record streak of playoff losses. Many of us are fed up with this embarrassment and want more!

Nick, if Falvey's and Pohlad's pronouncements on rebounding to "contention" next year are to be believed, then your recommendations to rebuild the rotation for next year would fall far short, I'm afraid. Just going for FAs like Kluber, Heaney, Cobb, Morton is a drop in the bucket.. This team needs two top starters: Rodon, Thor, Gausman, or Stroman in FA and a rising star like Alcantara or Lopez from Miami in trade. Anything less and you're looking at mediocrity. It's possible that one of Ryan or Ober can succeed over a full season next year, but unlikely both do. Dobnak's weaknesses have been well exposed. He cannot be considered as a positive on a contending staff, nor can guys like Balozavic, Winder, Duran, Strotman, be counted on for much at the major league level, at least next year. We just can't afford to rely on hope in prospects for a solid rebound in 2022. Pohlad's actions must backup his pronouncements - expand the budget to at least $150-160MM and tell Falvey he expects them to be agressive in FA, as well as give up some talent to get more pitching - or else! This team's mediocrity has always stemmed from lack of resolve and leadership at the top, as reflected in their choices for FO help. This don't- rock- the- boat attitude has resulted in the longest losing streak in playoff history. If Pohlad is satisfied with that record, he should do right by the Twins fan base and sell to an owner who truly wants a winner.

Lots of great responses! Thank you all!!. Let me add a few more comments: 1. One of the major points here is to show (if ownership is really committed to contending in 2022) that a minimum payroll of $150MM is needed. As Lonestar noted, even that figure would be a tight fit if a return to relevancy next year was realistic. Loss of Maeda is huge! We need to find a #1, #2, and #3. No one on the roster now looks close to filling those spots in the rotation. 2. As others have noted, it takes value to get value. Good pitching is at a premium, as always. We would have to overpay to get a guy like Alcantara or Lopez. Makes sense to trade from surplus - catching, 2B/3B, corner OF. Jeffers and Kepler or Larnach would be a nice haul for any rebuilding club who needs help at those positions. FO shouldn't hesitate to use a seeming surplus of good minor league pitching prospects to complete a deal, if necessary. Sure, it's a risk, but where have past GMs' passsive trade policies gotten us? 3. In terms of a top FA starter, this will be most difficult. Those of you who say $20MM/year is light are probably right. Not sure if the Sox will pony up for Rodon but they probably will to please the fan base(and keep owner happy). This is why I think they might pass on Kimbrel next year. Ray will cost a small fortune(Toronto has money to top other offers), Ditto Gausman with Giants. Thor is high risk, high reward. Possibility if Mets provide him a QO, Stroman might be another option here. No doubt finding an ace thru FA will be toughest task, especially for a tight-fisted owner and risk-averse FO. 4. SS is biggest position hole. Just not realistic, budget-wise, to expect Twins to be a player for top tier, but perhaps Baez's value has dropped with his troubles in NY, so he might be available for a short-term deal. Otherwise, I'd either try resigning Simmons or go with a slick-fielding/ mediocre offensive SS like Galvis or Iglesias. Compared to our pitching holes, this SS issue ranks well below. 5. As for the pen, little doubt that season-long struggles there sealed this team's fate early on, so solid additions must be made. I still think Kimbrel is best fit for a stopper but again, his signing greatly dependent on budget constraints. As for another late-inning reliever, your guess is as good as mine. I threw out some old names, but am sure there are some I haven't thought of. Just have lost faith in guys like Rogers, Duffey, Alcala - all of whom were thought to form the core of a solid pen. I want to see a closer who is primarily a K stud. Perhaps Duran Canterino will emerge but not next year. Bottom line - given past history of this ownership and FO, I don't think it realistic to expect the 2022 team to be a contender. Their is no will at the top(unlike Reinsdorf in Chicago) to win. Until that changes, I'm afraid we will have a long wait before becoming a threat to advance beyond first playoff round. Hope I'm dead wrong !!

Brandon, glad you brought up this relatively unnoticed positive trend. Twins bullpen has definitely improved in August, and is probably the number one reason Twins finally had a month over .500. Looks like Thielbar, Coulombe and maybe Gant and Minaya have a good chance of making next year's bullpen. I suppose Rogers, Duffey and Alcala are locks although the latter two have to show some solid improvement over this year's performance. The bottom line is that this club has to add a genuine closer and if affordable one other late inning arm. No one in the rest of this list looks like likely candidates for clutch situations on a contending club. One more thing. My personal favorite metric for analyzing relievers is the % of inherited runners scored. That stat is a true measure of a reliever's effectiveness. I believe the Twins' 2021 pen ranked dead last in this category. Guys like Rogers and Duffey were particularly poor in this stat, which is why the need for two additional back-end studs.

Top Gun: Can't quibble with your changes - we're both on same wavelength here. It really all boils down to Pohlad. Not only does he have to open the wallet a bit more, but he has to exert leadership in making it clear to the Wonder Boys that 2021 was completely unacceptable and a quick return to contention is a criteria for their job security past 2022. And while he's at it,, an announcement to Twins ticket holders and the entire fan base that he is embarrassed about 2021, he is committed to another championship and will do whatever it takes to get there. Or, better yet, he could sell the team to an owner who will get this done. Without JP cracking the whip, I have little faith in Falvey turning things around.

The only reason Falvine should be given one more chance is because last year was a lost development year due to covid. Give them this offseason to retool and see how things work out in 2022. They have a huge hill to climb, but got off to a good start at the trade deadline by bringing in 4 top prospects. However, they seem to be more comfortable in dumping starters for prospects. While their pickups like Odorrizi and Maeda had positive results, in 5 years they have not shown any propensity for bringing in any real difference makers. If this timidity continues and budget constraints remain tight, chances of a significant rebound next year are slim. If so, their employment should be terminated. Rocco on the other hand has run out of rope now. As Viola points out, the lack of good fundamentals this year has been noticeable. Rocco should be directly blamed for this lack. Shortening the return to contention must involve insertion of a manager(and coaching staff) schooled in the importance of discipline and fundamentals. Throw in his poor lineup/bullpen management and there is no reason to extend his tenure here.

Nice writeup Nash, but I am glad he is not the only top rated pitching prospect we have now. As you've demonstrated, his erratic performance this year raises more questions than answers, leaving one to wonder whether he fits more into the Romero/Gonzales category or a top 3 rotation guy. Too soon to guess, but I think guys like Ryan, Strotman and Woods-Richardson should be called up in September. Let Balazovic try gaining consistency at St. Paul this year. Longer term I think Winder and Canterino offer more promise as major league starters. There's a reason Balazovic dropped to #88 on MLB's midseason top 100 prospect list..

Wow! Highly unusual, yet very refreshing, to see this critique from a well-respected ex-Twin. Wish that more ex - Twin icons would do the same. Someone has to light a fire under Pohlad to move him off first base. Why can't season ticket holders unite and apply some pressure where it would really hurt - in Jim's pocketbook? I have never seen such a smug, arrogant group as Falvey/Levine since I started rooting for the Senator/Twins in the early 50's. Pseudo know-it-alls who know nothing about the game. At least Ryan had excellent scouting abilities. These guys have spreadsheets!

Brock, can understand your comments on "holy overpay" to Miami but as Ashbury said, you are going to have to overpay for a "top" ML pitcher. Lacking in offense, but loaded with pitching, Miami is an obvious partner. Reportedly, their biggest need is catching, followed closely by offense. I listed Arraez because his offense is apparent, yet on Twins he really has no obvious position. Next, I think Miami would prefer a young catcher like Jeffers and that's fine with me if Twins can accept Garver's defense and think Rortvedt is a decent backup. In any case, I'm trying to trade from Twins "strength", i.e., corner OF/2B/C . Getting Alcantara might be a pipe dream but he's the type of young, cost-controlled pitcher this team should be looking at.. The only chance to land him, IMO, is to give up a couple of major leaguers. Throw in one of our top prospects and perhaps we could add another Miami pitcher like Edward Cabrera, Sixto Sanchez or Max Meyer - all of whom are currently rated in the top 50 MLB prospect list. I view SS as primarily a defense-first position, which is why Simmons would be a decent, albeit less than ideal, solution for the 2022 position. I do not want Polanco as our full-time SS. He fits much better at 2B. My hope is that out of the multiple prospects( Lewis, Miranda, Palacios, or Martin) , Twins can find a starting SS in 2023. Sure I'd like to see one of the FAs on board, but even with a stretched $150MM budget, with all our pitching needs, there is no money left for a premium SS. This "plan" could only happen if the Twins really intended to at least attempt to contend in 2022. Pohlad needs to open up the checkbook and Falvine would have to shed their severe risk-aversion and swing for the fences. It's unlikely, I know, but not impossible.