mike8791

Nick, useful information, but are these really key questions now? Your first four questions seem to have already been answered. None of these players have shown anything that would lead us to believe they can be key contributors on a contending team. Not one! Similarly, the middle infield problem is pretty easily answered. The Twins do not have anyone on the current roster, except Simmons, who is a plus defender at SS, easily the most important defensive position in the lineup. Since Simmons is unlikely to bring back much in the way of trade, he should be resigned until a real SS prospect emerges. Nothing I've heard about Lewis leaves me to believe he is the heir apparent. But one question that should be asked, though it is not as critical as some others, is whether one of Polanco or Arraez should be traded for a top starting pitcher prospect? 2B is one of few positions where we have a "surplus" and neither of these two should be relegated to a utility role, The bullpen picture is as muddied as you said, but can't understand why guys like Farrell, Law, Stashak, Thorpe are even considered. Give the relief opportunities to guys like Cano and Moran who have excelled, maybe even Hamilton for the remainder of the year. Have to add that Alcala has shown very little, except ability to yield HRs, Duffy has taken a big step back(look at his % inherited runners scored) and Rogers is simply not the shutdown ace a real contender needs. What a mess! This FO has some much bigger problems than these. I hope they're up to the task!

Ken Rosenthal reported last nite in the Athletic that the Twins have offered Buxton a $70MM contract with incentives. Length of contract was not mentioned. Furthermore, Rosenthal's sources indicated Twins FO wants resolution by trade deadline. Conclusion: Buxton will likely be traded if no resolution. My two cents: am happy Twins FO is being proactive here. It is the right course to take with Bux, given the retool/reload in the offing. But this offer seems too low, despite his injury history. Of course, a smart offer should include substantial incentives for games played. Buxton should be able to make at least $20MM/yr depending on games played. Maybe this is a 3 year offer? Who knows at this point.

Lots of good discussion on the Retool vs. Rebuild Question. Nick, you seem to straddle the fence by your"retool and reset", implying to me anyway that it is unrealistic for this team to contend in 2022, but with a couple of good trades of our top pieces, perhaps a resigning of Buxton, and a better FA outcome next year, a reasonable expectation would be a return to contention in 2023, rather than a long term rebuild. That looks like the wisest choice now. If the Twins can get two almost-major-league-pitching prospects for Berrios and Rogers, they should jump at the chance. I could see the 2022 staff improving with one of these trade additions, progress from at least one of our minor leaguers, and an improvement from Maeda and Pineda(or FA signing). Certainly, there would be more longer term hope for the staff than currently is the case. More importantly, they would not have to rush any of their prospects next year. I should add that with this outline, the offense should not be decimated. Can't afford to lose more than one of Sano, Cruz or Donaldson(and none should be traded if the return is as weak as forecasters predict:. I think the 2022 team should be able to rebound to at least a .500 club with a pitching outlook for 2023 much improved. My biggest concern, however, is the huge question mark about Falvines' ability to assess talent. Over at the Athletic, Glee-man has had some excellent articles on three weaknesses this FO has exhibited in 4+ years : 1.) a weak midseason trade record: 2.) poor FA signings(except for Cruz) and 3.) inability to hold on to minor league talent that has gone on to much greater heights in other orgs. One might even conclude that Falvey's hubris over knowing talent better than his predecessor has clouded his judgment over inherited prospects. It makes for a very sober assessment of their judgment, including on the manager and coaching staff. I believe Falvey will get a pass because of the lost development year in 2020 but if they flounder again in the first half of 2022, Pohlad better have the guts to wield the ax. With the core this FO inherited, there can be no more ex cuses for such underperformance.

Big Dog:http://you believe they have failed with all the shortstops in the system (some of whom they didn't draft), doesn't drafting a shortstop seem like a priority? Sounds logical, but for two things: 1. Their overriding need is pitching so why not use their second highest pick for another high risk/high upside guy? 2. The 2022 FA market is loaded with proven SS. Rather go that route than wait 4-5 years for a HS prospect(assuming we're in a retool stage than rebuild). And if these FAs are all too pricey, I would resign Simmons. From everything I've read, none of the SSs on the 40 man roster, nor any other non-40 man minor league player, is said to have the skills needed in a ML SS.

Pleased with the top pick. High risk, high reward pitcher at #26 is the right way to go, given the top college pitchers all gone by then. Not too happy with another SS at #36, given this FO's mediocre pick of Cavaco, plus zero ML results on Lewis, not to mention the previous lack of success with other HS SSs like Gordon, Javier. Every one of these guys have shown inability to stick at SS. The book is not yet closed but with a flailing pitching staff, couldn't Johnson have found another high risk/high ceiling HS pitcher at #36? As for the rest of the draft, a big meh. Yes, no way of knowing but certainly no one else stands out initially. This team needs some wipeout bullpen stoppers, ones with upper 90's speed. There is no one on their draft list that seems to fit this gaping hole, at least now. My draft rating : a C. Hope I'm wrong, but this org. doesn't seem to have learned the importance of pitching in building a contender.

Nice analysis Tim, especially if your assumption of the FO having $45 MM left in budget for offseason additions is likely. That is simply insufficient to fill all the holes needed to return to contention in '22. But I do have some comments on your thoughts on next season's 26 man roster: 1. The Lineup -I like the fact you are keeping Buxton and Donaldson. Our hit or miss offense would be even worse next year without them. I would also keep Sano or Cruz(preferably the latter because he is one of only 3 or 4 professional batters in this lineup, has shown little signs of falloff, and most importantly, would fetch little value in return). To expect Larnach/Kirillof to both improve significantly in their sophomore seasons is a real stretch, so 3 of the 4 veteran bats would be needed. -Forget about signing Baez for one year. Ain't going to happen. If that's best he can do on the market, the Cubs would resign him in a heartbeat. Besides, as an extreme go-for-the-fences hitter, he would not be a great fit for a team too reliant on the long ball already. -Arraez is too good a hitter to play in a utility role. He must be penned in to 2B and kept there. Play Polanco at SS and hope Lewis is ready in '23. Despite his defensive deficiencies, Twins did ok with him at SS in '19 and '20. Sure the defense will suffer somewhat but it beats spending big $$ on one of the FA SSs. 2. The bullpen - Still way too weak. This is a tough one to predict, but I shudder at the thought of Alcala and his HR ball as a setup man, Thielbar, Dobnak, and Smeltzer do not belong in a contender's bullpen. Their upside is very limited. And Duffey has regressed(as seen by his inherited runner's scored % of over 50%) to the point where you don't know what you'll get. It is unfortunate we have so many injuries in the minor leagues, as that severely limits trials on the big league club this season. But this FO must bring up those healthy arms who they think have potential as relievers. I would even bring up Duran if healthy for spot bullpen usage. So bottom line: the Twins are going to have to spend a lot more than $3MM on FA relievers. Go for one big closer(it worked for the Sox!) and one established setup man. Yes, relievers are a crap shoot, but this season's disaster shows dumpster diving is no way to build an effective pen. 3. The Rotation - Totally agree that it is unlikely the Twins can bolster it next year with prospects. Ober and/or Winder are the two likeliest and thus, should be pitching in the rotation for the rest of the season. Don't think Ober's ceiling is higher than a #5, Winder's maybe a #3, but just can't expect both to contribute as early as next year, nor can any of their top prospects be counted on next year, either. That would leave us with Berrios, Maeda, and as you say, 2 FAs to fill out the rotation. I have little hope this organization will go for any of the top FA pitchers you list. The top tier will either be resigned by their current team or be priced out of the Twins' meager budget. Gray and Ray are the only ones who appeal in the 2nd tier and again, I don't think its in this FO's DNA to take the plunge. They are going to stick with their plan to develop internally, no matter where it takes this org. -Trades are another route and I would love to get Gallen(who the Twins could have picked up cheaply a few years ago), but why would the rebuilding Dbacks(or O's or Rocks) trade their best pitcher? As you said we'd have to give up one or two of our top prospects - a move this FO has failed to do in the last 4 years other than Graterol).. My best stab at improvement would be to go hard after Thor, but this risk-averse FO is unlikely to go out on a limb like that. So where does that leave us? Looks like in your scenario there are too many holes to fill to realistically contend next year, unless Pohlad issues a mandate to spend big and backs it up with an enlarged budget. So perhaps the conclusion is we should use our best trade pieces(Berrios and Rogers) to acquire almost major-league pitching prospects to accelerate our return to contention in '23 or '24. But by all means, keep Buxton. He is our only remaining star, even if he is a bit flawed. Unfortunately, I have little faith in Falvine to make the right moves to bring about the necessary right additions. Hope I'm wrong, but if we see no progress next year, time for a regime change.

Kudos Tim! Of all the trade proposals on TD, these sound like win-wins. Frankly, in my own blog(retool or rebuild), I was opposed to trading any premier pitching talent, as that is obviously our biggest weakness and by doing so, you can pretty much forget contending in the next year or two. But my faith in Falvine's acumen in retooling on the fly for next season has been badly shaken. It doesn't help we have an ownership that has never demonstrated a desire to take risks by providing more $ for top trade pieces or FA, and the FO's failures(to date) in spotting undervalued talent, so it very well might be a better idea to pass on 2022 contention if near-major league talent becomes available. But either of these two trades would likely bring back young, controlled pitching. I love May and Weathers. If the FO decides(soon I hope) that Berrios cannot be resigned, then trading to one of these two win-now teams would provide a much-needed boost to the Twins future rotation. I find it hard to believe after their splurge this past offseason that either team is in need of pitching, but you nicely state this strange turn of events and why they might bite. I doubt the Pods or LA would give up that much talent but if so, I would jump on it! Chances of either of these deals happening <5%. I just don't believe Falvey has the guts to do it, even if he could get such a return.

Interesting take! Alcala to date has been a big disappointment. As you mention, his proclivity for the HR ball has been his downfall. But my real question is: why hadn't the Twins' minor league pitching gurus realize early on that his two pitch repertoire would not translate to big league success? Why is he just learning the importance of a changeup now? Falvey brought in new pitching instructors to revamp previous administration's failures in developing pitchers, along with the whiz kid from college ranks to be the pitching coach at the ML level. Lots of stirring the pot, but the results to date are about the same as under Ryan. While you can't entirely write off Alcala yet, his lack of progress is either a failure of minor league instruction or a big swing and miss by the FO in acquiring less talent than they thought they were getting for an all star reliever who would certainly have helped this year. Until this FO develops some real major league pitching talent, their regime for now has to be rated a colossal failure. The clock is ticking.

As others have noted, its nice to see several top-rated pitchers here, but I think that if the Twins wish to contend again in 2022, they cannot count on any of these guys to contribute significantly next year. Injuries, uneven performances, and frankly, long term pitching development problems in this organization, even under the pitching gurus running the FO for the past 4+ years, would seem to mitigate against any such significant help next year. I would like to see them push Winder to the Twins sooner(by Aug. 1st at the latest) rather than as a September callup. He really looks like a potential #3 or 4 starter but we should find out if his minors success can translate to the big leagues. So, unless they opt for a full rebuild, they better keep Berrios, Maeda and Pineda if they hope to be relevant again as soon as next year. Sign or trade for an established starter and hope either Ober or Winder can fill the #5 spot better than Happ or the Shoe and we might have the makings of a solid rotation.

Wow! Now that's what I'd call a total rebuild! Depending on this offseason budget constraints, your plan might be the only viable one left..It would probably make the banker happy, allow Falvine another 4-5 years to justify their existence, guarantee 2-3 yrs. of dead last finishes and probably reduce attendance by 50%. Might be ok for you young guys but we seniors don't have time left to wait that long. I just want one more World Championship!!

Nick, you have presented a persuasive argument but as I posited in my blog: http://Going Forward - Retool or Rebuild?, I look at a Donaldson trade this year as a nail in the coffin for a retool rather than a rebuild. First, the Twins do not have a replacement for him at 3B. Arraez doesn't have the arm for the position, Miranda is promising but it's a long jump to filling JD's shoes next year, and Sano's time as a Twin looks over. Second, assuming Cruz is traded by July 31st, the loss of both these guys would leave a massive hole in our 2022 lineup. I like Kirillof and Larnach but sophomore slumps are just too frequent in this game(look at Jeffers) and, other than Buxton, there are no all stars on this team that could be expected to lead the offense next year. Of course, if someone offered a top pitching prospect for Josh, we should jump at it, but how likely is that to occur unless we throw in a big dollar contribution? And if so, what does that do to our ability to retain Berrios, Buxton, and Rogers or sign one of the premier FA SSs on the market this offseason? If there was some acknowledgment by ownership that the purse strings will be loosened to accomplish a successful retooling next year, life would be much simpler. But looking at past history and the inability of this FO to find quality nuggets in the discard basket, my bet going forward is an unsuccessful retooling effort followed by years of a rebuild.

Thanks for all the comments above. Just a few more thoughts: 1. The only reason I'm willing to give the FO a last chance in 2022 is because of the Minor League 2020 lost season and a late start to this one. If by midyear they have re-established Twins as contender, ok. But if deadline and offseason moves have not substantially moved the needle in team's performance by July 1st at the latest, they should join Rocco in the delete column. Frankly, this FO has not earned trust in drafting or signing FA pitchers, nor have they been agressive in the trading department. Of course, no way of knowing what payroll limitations they faced, but that's another story. 2. With Cruz likely gone at the trade deadline and Sano no longer a productive bat, can the Twins offense click without JD in 2022? Too much hope and not reality in my opinion. Can Kirillof and Larnach avoid a sophomore slump? Is Gordon a flash in the pan(pun intended)? Can Miranda make the jump to 3B? And the big question: will Buxton be healthy and a Twin next year? Yes, emphasis needs to be on pitching improvements, but that doesn't mean we can ignore fact that Twins' offense has been highly erratic, especially in run-scoring situations. The current lineup has improved in the last few weeks, but is it sustainable, especially if Cruz and Donaldson are gone? And finally, I still contend the only way for the Twins to return to contention next year is if money is made available to resign Berrios and Buxton, plus signing a high end starter, one of the top FA SS's available in the offseason, and 2-3 relievers who have a higher possibility of nailing down a win in late game situations, at least much higher than guys like Colome, Duffy, Thielbar and Alcala. JP has to step up to the plate here and Falvine has to make the right roster decisions this time; otherwise, we are looking at a 3-4 year rebuild.

The only stat that sours me on Rogers, and granted there are many in the same group, but his inherited runners that score is at 57% (stat from last week) for the 2021 season. I want my all-star reliever to do a better job of coming in and putting out the fire completely, most of the time. The Twins bullpen is dead last in this all-important category and Rogers' % is totally unacceptable for a closer or an All Star. The fact he is the top reliever on the 2021 Twins is an indictment of the pen, not a reason to add him to the All Star squad.

Bingo! Resigning Buxton and Berrios are keys. Without either of them in the L/U next year, this team cannot possibly contend, which is why trading them this season makes no sense unless ownership wants a complete rebuild. This is a key test for Pohlad. He must expand payroll to accomplish resigning both, which is why calls to trade Donaldson for freeing up money is illogical. He is one of the very few professional hitters on this team. Who is going to replace him? Even if Twins decide they cannot afford to sign B&B, they should still be retained for 2022 to give this FO one last chance to right the ship. If they don't by midseason at the latest, they should be dumped and B&B traded at the deadline. If the team does rebound, Pohlad would hopefully pony up the $ to resign them. It's all on ownership here. Prepare to go over budget or tear it down. There is just no middle ground.

Now that it is clear Twins must be sellers, the most pressing issue to the FO must be: Retool or Rebuild? With the trade deadline in just 4 weeks, many big decisions must be made this month. Just to restate the obvious: retooling can be defined as fielding a 2022 squad that can be a legitimate contender at least for a playoff spot. A rebuild means tearing down the core and hoping to contend by 2024/5 at the earliest. For starters, let's list the key factors that would allow for a retool: 1. Build around the existing core of Berrios, Buxton, Donaldson, Rogers, Arraez, Kirillof and Larnach. I would also add Pineda and Maeda to this "core", as expecting to contend next season without at least three set rotation pieces would be comparable to entering 2021 with only question marks for the bullpen. One might argue that guys like Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Jeffers/Garver, could also be considered core players, but at best, these are either fringe players going forward with probably more value as trade pieces. Despite all the chatter about trading, the Twins need this core in place to have any real chance of contending next year. This doesn't necessarily mean resigning Buxton, Berrios, and Rogers, but their absence would likely severely limit contention chances next year. 2. To get higher impact prospects who could expect to contribute to the major league team in 2022, trade from strength. This means guys like Garver and Polanco should be available this month(alternatively, Jeffers and Arraez could be substituted but they are much more likely to contribute to squads beyond next year so should only be traded for very high end prospects). Guys like Sano and Kepler who have obviously fallen short of early promise, should also be marketed but they are not likely to bring back major-league-ready prospects. Expiring contracts should not be renewed(except for Pineda), although if Cruz does not bring back at least a medium level pitching prospect for next year, perhaps he should be retained as a player/hitting coach. He's that remarkable. 3. Push the best available pitching prospects up by Aug. 1st. Not a lot to choose from here, with injuries, limited or poor performances from guys like Duran, Enlow, Balozovic, but certainly Winder and Cano, if they both can establish their AA success has translated to AAA in July) should be promoted. Duran and/or Balozovis could be brought up after Sept. 1st if healthy and if they can turnaround some control issues that have emerged. They can continue to run out guys like Jax and Ober but they have shown little to warrant optimism for being keys to a pitching rebound. With one or two high end pitchers acquired by the trade deadline plus hopefully, one or two minor leaguers who show more promise than the retreads used to date in 2021, the FO should have a clearer idea what the basic needs are in the offseason. At best, the Twins could find themselves entering the offseason with the need for one strong starter and one or two late inning relievers rather than a major bullpen overhaul. At that point it is incumbent upon ownership to step up and declare money is available for signing current stars and adding the necessary high end talent rather than nibbling around for bargains - a strategy that has obviously contributed to our record-setting playoff losing streak, as well as this year's collapse. And one more thing for the offseason. Rocco must go and replaced with an old-school, experienced disciplinarian. It's worked for the Sox. Why not the Twins? So give Falvine until June 30th 2022 to see if they're on the right track. If not, time for a midseason change. After this year's colossal failure, the rope should be short. If ownership is unwilling to spend for high level talent and keep the core together for at least one more year, then rebuilding is the only alternative. Trading Berrios and Buxton would be necessary before 2022 and a 3 year minimum rebuilding program should be instituted. This rebuild has to be conducted by new FO personnel, ones who are not so risk averse as Falvine and have had experience in successfully rebuilding other franchises. What about Theo?? Of course, the ultimate solution is new ownership- one who is agressive about wanting a winner and willing to invest in the future. Mark Cuban, are you listening? But that's just wishful thinking. Conservative banking mentality will probably be our albatross for years to come. So what do you all think? Is contention likely for this franchise in 2022 or is rebuild under new management the way to go?

It's been said by many others on this post, but I have to chip in. I AM SO SICK OF MINNESOTA NICE!! Why has this team consistently underperformed in the playoffs? No heart, no fire, just roll over. How can you criticize a player(the only one on the roster) who has called a player's meeting. That is leadership - a trait so absent in recent Twin managers. My two cents: Donaldson would make a great player manager. Keep him until retirement. We simply don't have anyone else like him.

Had to check the IDK button. My knee jerk rx is both should be gone but I have a few reasons to give them more rope: 1. 2020 and part of 2021 was a lost time for the minor leagues, so they've realistically had only about 3 full seasons to develop draft picks. 2. They have delivered 3 playoff teams in their almost 5 years. How much of this success is due to their savvy pickups like Odo, Maeda,, Cruz and Pineda is subject to question but still, those were big contributions to these 3 playoff berths. 3. They have modernized this moribund organization with new coaches, measurement tools, and new age techniques. 4. The last 3 years, incl. this one, has been a roller coaster ride, fraught with ups and downs caused by a juiced ball, Covid shortened season, significant injuries. We really still do not know what this team is made of. With that said, the leash should be short. Give them about 10 more months(an offseason to retool and 2 months into next year's schedule, to see if the team has returned to at least respectability). But here are the things I think they must accomplish to restore faith in their abilities: 1. Fire Baldy now. We need to find out if a new manager, one who is old school, a stickler for fundamentals, hard work and leadership skills, can set this ship on a right path. So long as Rocco stays in charge, we do not know how much his ineptitude and lack of leadership is part of the problem. 2. Ownership and the FO must commit to resigning Buxton and Berrios, the only two players who play at all star levels. Put simply, there is no way this team can get back in contention next year without them. Pohlad has to give the go ahead for large salary increases not only for these two, but also in FA. There are a boatload of all star FA SSs available this offseason. Open up the pocketbook and sign one. We have no top SS prospect ready to step in to this critical position. If Lewis ever develops, he can play OF. 3. Falvine is good at dumping veterans at the trade deadline. Let's see him take some trade risks this year by trading from our few strengths. With Garver/Jeffers we have a surplus at the catching position. Garver should bring back a near major league ready prospect. Ditto with Polanco/Arraez. Expecting Arraez to be a good utility player and still maintain his elite batting skills was a fools errand. Neither is capable of playing SS. Trade the one who brings the best prospect(s). We'll still have an above average 2B for a few years. Trading Cruz is a must, but doubtful how much top grade talent he could bring. 4. Even assuming Berrios is retained for 2022 and Maeda returns to being a serviceable #3 starter(he is not the ace we saw last year), the Twins need to spend big on a FA starter or resign Pineda. Without a solid front of the rotation this team will flounder again next year. If one current Twins prospect progresses enough to fill the #4 spot, that in itself would be a bonus. Expecting any more is a fool's errand. 5. Bring the rooks up now, particularly for the bullpen. Now is the time to see what they have, even if they're rushed a bit. Moran and Cano are two we need to see. If these two flop, then the FO must sign at least two closer-types for next year.And bring up the best rotation arm in the next 30 days. We have a few highly touted guys in Duran, Balazovic, Winder. Let at least one compete with Ober by midseason to see if we have a keeper. The result will dictate how agressive this team should be in the offseason.

Kudos, Nick, for telling it like it is! At this stage of this bitter season, it is a lot more refreshing to see the cold, hard facts rather than the apologist's versions. As a devoted Twins' fan for almost 70 years, I am sickened by their ineptness, both on the field, in the clubhouse, and in mgt. ranks. With that said, I recognize that the common knee jerk rx to fire the ones responsible for the carnage might give us temporary emotional relief, but will not happen, at least this year. So the real qurstion is : how much rope should Falvine, Baldy, and staff be given? As you've indicated, the Twins will be in seller's mode and Falvey has shown little hesitation in dumping players at the deadline. But isn't the real question now: can this squad return to contention next year, and if so, who constitutes the core going forward and what prospects have a chance to contribute to a turnaround? My two cents: 1. The core consists of : Bux, Berrios, Kirillof, Larnach, Jeffers, Arraez/Polanco(probably not both). If so, trading Bux or Berrios is a no-no. Signing them to long term contracts is a priority. 2. There are very few prospects who right now look like keepers. Maybe Ober, Alcala, and perhaps Gordon(utility). That's not enough to fill in this roster with positive adds for next season. So the immediate need is to bring up our best prospects ASAP., e.g., Duran, Winder, Balozavic(in a month or so), and a couple of relievers now doing well at Wichita. Dump the non-performers now: Colome, Shoemaker, and Dobnak for starters. Let's see the rooks sooner so we have a better idea what we have rather than wait for a September callup. A few other players can be traded for more prospects closer to the deadline: Cruz, Sano or Kepler, Duffy or Rogers or both, maybe Pineda if he brings back a top 100 prospect. I would then reassess these new players' performance and see if we have enough to contend next year. If the answer is yes, then give the FO & Baldy one more chance next year. If not, then it's time for an offseason housecleaning that includes Falvine, Rocco and coaching staff. There must be some accountability, either positive or negative!!

Nice writeup, but can't understand this urge to trade Pineda. He is easily the Twins 2nd or 3rd best starter, depending on how Maeda reemerges. If a retool rather than rebuild is the way to go in '22, the rotation is a key component. Right now, this team has no one to depend on in the #4 & 5 slots. Yes, maybe one or two of the prospects might step up(sorry, not ready to annoint Ober just yet), but this FO has given no reason to believe that any of their pitching prospects are more than just that - prospects. I'd rather wait and bring them up sooner rather than later and see how they fare at the major league level. And we haven't even touched on the putrid bullpen situation. It very well could be that over the next 100 games we see what this team's potential is for next year. Perhaps the prospects will prove they belong in the majors. If not, then a total rebuild is in order. My only concern is that the Wonder Boys have not shown the smarts to do the rebuild correctly. Perhaps this is a situation that also has to be revisited in October?

Interesting topic Cody. As you say, really a bit early to evaluate Lewis, but I for one was appalled that the supposed pitching gurus newly installed at Twins HQ passed on all 3 of these pitchers to take Lewis. This org. has flailed for many years in developing pitching, surely the most important position in MLB. But Falvine has shown excessive hubris in all their drafts, and this seems like no exception. Gore and Greene were considered sure-fire top-of-the-rotation hurlers, McKay rated a bit lower maybe because he wanted to be considered a hitter/pitcher. Yes, the verdict is still TBD, but reports seem to indicate Lewis doesn't have the chops at SS and will probably settle in CF, where the Twins had a guy named Buxton who was considered the #1 prospect and when healthy has started to play like one. Doubts about this FO's savvy certainly escalated when in their next 3 drafts, they selected an OF, another SS, and a DH-type. Is this how you develop a home grown stud rotation like Cleveland has been able to do? Have any of Falvine's draft picks looked like the future of a solid rotation? Yes, they did pick up Alcala and Duran in trades, but they are unknown quantities as of now. They haven't even drafted one pitcher who can help a major league bullpen that is arguably the worst in baseball. The Lewis pick was a signal that this FO was not up to the task of developing a core of major league pitchers. They have done nothing since to change the narrative. This should be the year that they throw these prospects into the fire at the major league level, after all what more can we lose. The rest of this year should tell the tale on the Whiz Kids ability to develop major league pitching. Aren't these the guys that should be held accountable if they prove unable to do that?

Nick, glad to see this post. You nailed it. The F/O gets a failing grade. There is no sugar coating it. There can be no more excuses - not bad luck, injuries, the pandemic, nothing. Do Falvey's pronouncements on being hired that rebuilding this team's batting and pitching philosophies, attention to new metrics, and personnel additions would be his top priorities merely cover up a simple failure of poor judgment on such critical matters as drafts, FA signing, trades, etc.? Does the emperor have no clothes? I don't know the answer except to say that we are very close to System Failure 2.0. Most TD members don't seem to agree. Give them more time, they've won two division titles, they're pitching development geniuses, yada, yada. When is it time for a reckoning? I realize Falvine, Rocco and company have time remaining on their contracts, but shouldn't these "leaders" be held accountable for their failures? If not now, when? For this long term Twins/Senators fan of almost 70 years, I don't believe I've ever witnessed a more distressing collapse from a team with such high expectations.

Nope, have to disagree with premise of trading anyone now. Cruz is an obvious candidate but need to wait at least a month in hope he heats up a bit and the contenders' needs become more apparent. But yes, Cruz should not be in the clubs' plans for 2022. Sano or Donaldson should not be traded at all unless FO gets a particularly appealing offer. We'll need Sano for DH next year and there is no one in the org. ready to replace Donaldson at 3B. They both are disappointments but Twins should not be in a rebuild mode unless guys like Jeffers, Kirillof, Larnach prove wanting for remainder of this year. Let the FO concentrate on solidifying the bullpen first, after all, this was the origin for the team's crash this year. If Duffy and Rogers recover from a poor start, if guys like Alcala and maybe Ferrell prove to be positive additions and one or two of our prospect flame throwers are given an early chance to demonstrate they belong, at least we have the makings for improvement next year. This is where they need to be agressive, not in dumpster fire selloffs.

This team is ready for retooling, not a complete overhaul, so I have to vote with a loud NO to trading Donaldson for bag of balls. Ditto for any dump of Sano. Why trade either one at their low point when they can be parts of a contender? We have no one in the foreseeable future to replace Josh, nor do we have a better replacement for Cruz(who should be traded) than Sano, at least for next year. And selling off guys like Buxton, Simmons, Berrios and Pineda makes no sense in a retooling effort, at least this year. I had high hopes for Celestino, but he's way too raw. Berrios and Pineda will be needed in 2022 to at least have a competitive rotation, with Maeda(?), Dobnak and one of the rooks rounding out the staff. This is not to say the FO should be cautious pre-deadline. Getting rid of Happ and Shoemaker is a no-brainer. Cruz should bring back something, hopefully a bullpen piece that starts the rebuild there. Since the FO deems Polanco insufficient at SS, then both he and Arraez should battle for 2B long term(thinking Arraez would fit in as super-utility player was as mis-guided as trying Sano in the OF). The loser of that battle would make a nice trade piece, perhaps for a good bullpen piece or top 100 prospect.. Simmonns should be resigned for one more year, giving Lewis one more year of development. And certainly Kepler should be shopped, with emergence of Larnach/Kirrilof bolstering the OF, but with Buxton's long term future with the Twins uncertain, Kepler should only be traded in a package involving major league-ready pitching. And finally, as distasteful as this might seem, the Twins have little choice other than rush some of their top minor league pitching prospects to the big league club, preferrably in bullpen roles to start to see what they bring. Yes, somewhat risky, but the FO must use this disaster to retool for the future. As bad as 2021 has been, it is a chance to retool for next year, assuming we have a base going forward. If not, than, yes, a wholesale selloff would be necessary. Big question: can this FO, manager, and coaches be the ones to lead the rebuild?

Nick, your weekly reviews are one of the best things about TD and this one was no exception! This season is probably(99%) a loss, but as you said, there are glimmers of optimism. My greatest criticism for some time(accentuated by 19 straight playoff losses) has been the lack of resiliency/heart of this team. No team leaders. No leadership from the manager! But this past week has shown signs of a turnaround in that they came back twice against tough pitching(Bieber and Plesac), hung tough against Giolito, and actually pulled out a couple of games they trailed in late innings. Yes, the team is decimated with injuries(though no worse than many others), some very slow starts by some and continued ham-handed in-game decisions by Rocky, but for the first time have shown signs of a heart. Is this "comeback" mainly a result of Sano's surge or has it filtered down the lineup? These next 14 games will tell the tale. If they can't manage 9 or 10 wins, then I think that will close the book on 2021.

Let's see, Thorpe has lost his fastball, has marginal other pitches, and has never looked like a positive rotation addition, so we should try him in this disaster of a bullpen??? What is lacking in the pen are power arms that can come in with some men on base(especially on 2nd base in extra innings) and get some strikeouts. Even in middle relief, Thorpe provides little. He has richly earned a DFA, along with others like Thielbar, Colome, Smeltzer and the other retreads the Wonder Boys have accumulated. Let's take off the rose-colored glasses, see reality for what it is, and move on from these dreary tailenders. And if there is no one else in the minors who can provide this jolt of energy, time for Falvine to find a new job. Isn't 4 + years enough time to at least develop one bona fide reliever?