mike8791

Rodon is the only one left with clear ace potential and also someone who might sign a shorter term contract than, say s Stroman, because of injury concerns. We can see that this FO will never sign a FA pitcher for more than 1-2 years. Not sure what Boras is asking but as others go off the board and with a looming transaction deadline tonight, it would behoove the Wonder Boys to go all in now - before some of the bigger spending clubs who still have major gaps in their rotation decide to outbid the Twins. Bassitt would be a smart add if only Falvey would give up a couple of our top 20 prospects, including one top 10 pitching prospect. Miami looked like a better fit but now that they've added a catcher, that ship has probably sailed. And Sonny Gray would be a very nice pickup but reportedly the Reds are holding out for a rich package. One of the A's pitchers looks like the best bet as of now, but does anyone on TD think that this FO would give up top prospects needed? I'd bet on a Ryan redux. Pineda doesn't really move the needle, but is probably the most likely signing among the 3 candidates. If they can add him on a one year contract, it would be an OK move, considering Maeda should return in 2023. All in all, these 3 would definitely move the needle towards contention. Anything less, however, and we're looking at a best outcome of .500 ball in 2022. As others have noted the payroll hit would be very palatable and still leave room for a couple of pen pickups, a SS, and perhaps a fourth long-shot starter. The window is closing fast. Can Falvey rise to the challenge of nudging this team back into contention as early as 2022?

Twins Ace - Gray signed with the Rangers. 4 years for $56 million. (I definitely missed a few signings that happened on Friday as well. Crazy how much action there was over the past 4 days.) Believe Top Gunn meant Sonny Gray w/Reds, not Jon. Sonny would be one of my favorite targets - like him a lot better than Jon and I believe he is owed $12MM for '22 and option for '23. If Twins could swing another deal with A's or Marlins for one of their starters that would make for a formidable top 3! Tony/Rod: I love watching Rodon but the failure of Chicago to offer raised concern, even if it is uninformed worry on my part. Yes, there is a red flag but Sox want to put Kopech into rotation, leaving Rodon as a luxury(in their view). Sox blew it last year when they DFA'd Rodon but no one bit so they had him back on the cheap. Rodon has had injury issues, including last year, but came back strong in last 2 outings in Sept. Moderate risk, high reward(I'd rather sign Rodon than Ray to be a long term ace). Let's see if FO can abandon that risk aversion to take this chance.

The Twins need an ace if they are to be legitimate contenders in 2022. Ray would fit the bill nicely but now, with a Dec. 1st deadline looming, you can practically guarantee a bidding war develops. Does anyone on TD truly believe the Twins are capable of winning such a war? I'd give it <1% chance. But there's another ace-type hurler available - Carlos Rodon. He outpitched Ray last year when healthy. Yes, health concerns have to be factored in, but the upside of this issue is that his market value will be far less than Ray or even Stroman. Perhaps a 3 year/$60MM deal could get it done. The team has the budget to get this done with perhaps $20MM leftover to fill some other holes in FA(paying Bux only $10MM in 2022 provides some added room in the budget). The rest of this offseason is the most critical test for Falvey and co. Can they restore this team to contention in 2022? Signing Rodon comes with risk but to move the needle, this is exactly the type of move that any competent management should be willing to take. Wouldn't it be nice to see the Twins swoop in for once, rather than wait for the dust to settle before making their move?

Well T-giving has passed and Xmas has come early.. Today, I just received a copy of Derek Falvey's business planner from a disgruntled FO employee wishing to make public DF's plans starting in August 2021 thru opening day 2022. For brevity sake I have removed all the confusing algorithms, statistics, and doodlings that comprise most of these pages, but the words are his! Hope you enjoy this rare insight into the brain of Derek Falvey!! Aug. 2021 1. Make up list of all preseason pitching Minor League FAs and add to roster as spaces open up. Need to see who looks promising for 2022 pen. Just can't understand why none of my prized draft pitchers from the past 5 years haven't yet made a contribution to our big league bullpen? Maybe trading Pressley was a little premature. 2. Confer with Rocco and staff about feasibility of reinstituting pregame practice now that season is down the tubes. Make sure this act does not lower team morale, especially the young players. 3. Reminder: contact BB's agent to renew contract talks. Sept. 2021 1. Tell Rocco to keep Barnes in the rotation. He looks like a late bloomer. 2. Looks like we've found our bullpen closer for next year. Alcala pitching much better now that pressure is off. 2.. Glad Rocco brought back Refsnyder. Love to see these bargain basement veterans succeed at big league level! 4. Reminder: contact BB's agent to renew contract talks. Oct. 2021 1. Season finally over! No more worries about presiding over team's record-breaking playoff loss streak. 2. Excited about having the #8 first round draft choice next year. Should be some excellent power hitters to supplement our DH/corner OF depth in the first round. Of if we get lucky, might be able to find an under-the-radar HS SS we can develop into a utility player. Be still my heart!! 3, Filled two huge offseason needs; Hitting Instructor and Bench Coach. Whoopee!! Saved a ton of money hiring Mary from Dodger Org. Who cares if he never coached higher than Class A.? He is a statistical whiz and is raw enough to listen to FO suggestions. Veteran bat coaches are a dime a dozen, but it takes a sharp mind like mine to ferret out the unpolished gems. And grabbing Tingler from the Pods is a real coup. He'll be a great asset in restoring team morale by providing strong leadership that Rocco lacks. His success managing Pods convinced me he would be the best mangerial candidate available if Rocco continues to fail on fundamental instruction. 4. Reminder: contact BB's agent to renew contract talks. Nov. 2021 1. Whew, finally got the Cave contract wrapped up. Worried we might not have capable CF when BB down. And JP will be thrilled we saved $200K on the budget. Maybe I'll get a bonus! 2. Working 24/7 to decide on who to add to 40 man roster. Hate to give up on anyone now, as team played so much better after trade deadline. I was particularly worried about losing Enlow as it would make me look bad, given fact he was highest paid 3rd round pick. I know talent when I see it! Hard to lose gamers like the Turtle, Gant, Smeltzer, Garlick. You just can't have enough minor league depth in case of injuries. 3. Exciting to see our fast-rising prospects in the AZ Fall League. Wallner looks like he's in the hunt for our DH next year and our pitching prospects look like valuable additions to the pen in 3-4 years. 4. Nov. 15th : Finally vacation time. Let the contenders overspend on starting pitchers. We're waiting for the real bargains to filter down. Thad will keep things at a slow simmer during the GM meetings. Besides, we haven't yet developed our strategy yet for the offseason(hard to do when JP hasn't issued his budget for 2022). 5. Reminder: must check on long distance service from Mongolia so I can answer any callbacks from BB's agent. 6. Damn! Had to cancel rest of vacation as Thad needed my input on whether to tender BB by the new Nov. 30th deadline. Tough call here, given how hard it's been to schedule a meeting with his agent, but JP put his foot down and said for PR purposes we had to offer BB arbitration. We were sort of surprised as Jim had earlier said he was reluctant to increase the budget while the virus was still prevelant. Dec. 2021 1. Glad to see the CBA deadline put a halt to any trades or FA signings. Frankly, just too much to do yet to determine our offseason plans. Still big divide in the FO whether to attempt to try to contend in 2022 or rebuild completely. As usual, no direction from ownership, but of course that's what I love about this job. Future plans are all in my hands and, being the smartest guy in the room, I can't wait to finalize my new 5 year rebuild plan. Just have to keep it on the QT. We have season ticket sales to push! 2. Returning to Mongolia as not much more can happen without new CBA. Gave the FO the rest of the month off as a reward for a successful 2021. Glad we got the BB 2022 contract settled. Jan. 2022 1. The New Year has started with a bang! The phone is ringing off the hook now that player transactions have recommenced. Can't believe how these foolish GM's anxious to trade starters think they can grab any of our prized Top 20 prospects. I learned from TR that you must always stay in a rebuilding mode, so why would I give up any of our prize draft choices, even though we're a bit short of experienced starters. We need depth at all positions in the minors and majors if we are ever going to be successful with our rebuild. Judging from my success in developing a home-grown bullpen from draft choices, why should we change course now. 2. Had a surprise call from Scott on Carlos Rodon. Said he'd accept a short term 1-2 year contract at $20 MM/yr. The Fool! Just think of the risk with this guy. Scott should know by now that we never take risks! Just imagine if it went south? My adoring public would find I have no clothes. Feb. 2022 1. Finally, my favorite month of the year! Time to show everyone how smart I really am. Signed Michael Wacha to be our staff ace and Rich Hill and Pineda to be our #2 & 3 starters, while resigning Colome(just can't believe no one picked this guy up) to close games. And hit the trifecta when we resigned Simmons fo half his 2021 salary. All in all a very successful offseason. Can't wait for ST to start! Mar. 2022 1. So nice to be back at Lee Stadium! First game was today. Funny no fans showed up. Hmmm! Such pessimists these fans are!!

Seth, am usually opposed to bringing back ex-Twins previously released, especially one also just released by Detroit, but if he has still truly an above average fielding SS, his power potential alone would make him a clear choice over Simmons. We're not going to spend the dollars necessary to sign one of the big name FAs, so why not a flyer on this guy? Don't like his high K rate, but from the list of other available middlin' SSs, this would seem to be a good low risk candidate at a very moderate cost. I like the idea of jettisoning Cave and see Gordon and Goodrum as backups in both the IF and SS if and when Lewis can take over SS position permanently. Unfortunately, I don't see the Wonder Boys going for an "old" Twin; just not in their DNA.

Cody, this is the essential question now. Resign Bux to a long term extension or not. The whole offseason depends on resolution of this question. If we fans can understand this, you can be sure management understands this, too, which is why significant FA signings/ trade speculation, etc. are just hollow hopes. While it is still too soon to predict which direction this FO intends to go, there was one revealing statement by Falvey in the Rosenthal article on resigning Buxton that is most illuminating: "At this stage of the offseason, we’re still just navigating our strategy and planning and trying to understand what’s available to us and what the market looks like on all periods." Now we all know this guy is a great spin doctor, but the fact he was quoted just this week that they were still navigating strategy is pretty shocking. Wouldn't a responsible organization have decided prior to opening of the FA signing period that either they had to sign Buxton as a base for retooling the roster in order to return to contention in 2022 or not signing him resulting in a complete rebuild? There is no logical middle ground here. The fact they haven't yet moved on Buxton indicates they will be hamstrung in making significant trades or signings until the Buxton issue is settled, resulting in the usual dumpster dive after all the dust has settled this offseason. I think most of us at TD are stunned by this lack of resolve, but we shouldn't be. The history of this org. points to acceptance of mediocrity by ownership satisfied with sporadic contention, but clueless on taking the next step. Falvey seems the perfect hire for perpetuating JP's reluctance to take the necessary risks to win. So those of us left in the Twins fandom can look forward to another rebuild led by the Wonder Boys or some clone thereof. As a 60 + year fan of the franchise, I am now more pessimistic than ever in both the short and long term prospects for this franchise so long as the Pohlad family is in charge.

Nice summary, Ted! While many of us here are clamoring for a top-of-the-rotation FA signing, the whole history of this organization unfortunately points to disappointment on this score. The Twins have historically shied away from long term signings(I believe 4 years is as far as they've gone). The Jays recent signing of Berrios to a fair $18.5MM/year contract is a strong example of this. I don't think many of us thought he would sign for such a reasonable amount and wonder why the Twins couldn't have at least matched that. The reason is simple - Berrios wanted long term security and Toronto gave him 7 years. E. Rod's signing by the Tigers and Thor's s deal with the Angels adds further evidence that this org. just will not take that kind of risk, no matter how desperate our need is for starting pitching. As far as FA signings go, does anyone expect the FO to land one of the top dogs in a very good FA class? Likelihood is the pattern of waiting around until Jan/Feb until bargain basement FAs are identified will continue again this year. So trading for young, controlled pitching is more likely. And to get a valuable piece, the Twins will have to give up something of value. Who they give up is a big question. As you note, the Twins have some depth in the C, middle IF, and corner OF positions. Arraez is the easiest pick to offer, but doubt he would be a centerpiece for a solid starter. However, such a package including Arraez and a couple of top 20 prospects might get one of the A's starters or perhaps even Gallen. Garver also has value, but my bet is that young, rebuilding teams like Miami would much rather have Jeffers than the older Garver( and that would be a good thing, especially if contending next year is really the goal). It does not take a genius to see the matchup with Miami if only the Wonder Boys were unafraid to take the risk and add some top prospect or two to sweeten the pot. Kepler would be the last regular I'd trade, mainly because there is already a big question mark in LF, so unless the FO had the budget and will to sign a major league hitter like Canha or even Marte, they just couldn't afford to weaken the OF any further, even assuming they resigned Buxton. Kirillof is destined for 1B , Larnach is still a major unknown, and Celestino/Martin/Lewis are a ways away. All this speculation is out the window if Buxton is traded. At that point it would be obvious that the FO lied to fans about their contending in 2022. Instead, expect a big selloff would be their path, with the inevitable 4-5 year wait to return to relevance. The one good thing about such a rebuilding path is that Falvine would not be around to mishandle it.

Nice article Nick! With all the sceptics of the FO on TD(myself included), your pointing to some of their successes is important for all of us to remember. Their acquisitions of Odo, Pineda and Maeda were smart ones(the others perhaps less so). Their salary dump trades, especially this year, hold promise, especially gaining Ryan and Martin, although tpo early to tell how these will work at ML level. Even the Pressley trade, which I still think was a mistake at the time, might work out with Alcala and Celestino developing nicely. At least this FO hasn't been guilty of the awful trades we saw in the Smith regime. But(there's always a but), we are at a different juncture now after this season's disaster. If we are going to rebound to contention in 2022 the FO must acquire at least two top-of-the-rotation arms, for starters. They cannot afford to sit around the edge of the pool and watch others nab the top FAs/trade candidates, while waiting for bargains to develop. Detroit recognizes the importance of going big by their signing of E. Rod today. Does this Fo have the budget and the cajones to strike quickly or will we wait for Jan/Feb to grab the "bargains"? And will this FO be willing to trade some of our top prospects and some of our excess major leaguers to corral a top young starter? Straddling the fence is not an option. They need to roll the dice and go big or tear it down and rebuild. I hope they live up to their promise to build a contender this offseason, but their 5 years at the helm do not give me cause for optimism, I'm afraid.

Mills, not sure where your final budget lies, but quick glance at your roster shows much imagination and realism. Particularly like your addition of Canha to replace Kepler in Rf, thereby enhancing trade package for Lopez. Don't think he's ready to assume ace status, but he would be a prime catch if Marlins willing to trade him. He would be a more movable piece than Rogers or Alcantara, either of whom would be my first choice. While Stroman or Rodon would be a better bet for a #1 Starter they admittedly will be a much harder get than Rodriguez. Can't favor Wacha - he had a terrible year. Rather spend a little more for someone like Pineda or Hill to give rotation better depth. The lineup looks good, but only if Kirillof, Bux, and JD remain healthy most of the season. It should be an above average offense, but not top tier unless everything broke favorably. The bullpen would be helped by Knebel as stopper, but I'd pass on Ottavino and go for Tepera or Yates. Barring injuries to Rogers or Duffey and with continued improvement from Alcala this could be a much improved pen compared to the trash heap of 2021. All in all, a very good roster! Let's hope the FO hires you as trade consultant!

Gray's history suggest a ceiling as a #3 starter. Pineda would fit that slot as well, has better stats and would likely sign a 1-2 year contract. Gray wouldn't move the needle much. Twins still need two top-of-rotation guys. Save their bullets for those two, not on Gray.

Now that QO list is complete, it is notable that 3 very good pitchers were not on it: Jon Gray, Carlos Rodon, and Anthony DeSclafani( and Stroman was ineligible for QO). Consideration of relinquishing their #3 draft pick might play a role in FO decisions on SP selection. While Stroman might have been the #1 choice in the TD universe, he certainly would be highest price, probably over $25MM/yr for minimum of 5-6 years. Any one of the other 3 pitchers might be a better choice, with Rodon at the top of my list. He returned in September throwing 99MPH, though SSS. While higher risk perhaps, he is only one who has ace potential.

As others have noted, kudos to your well thought out proposal. You are a welcome addition to TD! Living in Chicago, I have particular appreciation for Rodon. He was arguably the best starter in the AL until his injury. Yes, he is higher risk because of his injury history, but he looked his old self in his late September return and would be a true #1 candidate for years to come. Sox have said they want to promote Kopech to the rotation, which might lessen their desire to resign Rodon. The Twins should go hard after this guy. He is a stud. Less enthusiastic about Rodriguez as #2 and Kepler trade. If Rooker and Larnach are starting corner OFs, our defense suffers, as does our lineup. Rooker is Sano-lite and Larnach might need a full year in the minors. So why trade Kepler for top prospects when the chances for landing one young starter from either Miami or Oakland(to name two) with a package of Arraez, Jeffers, and one or two of our top 10-20 prospects would improve the 2022 immeasurably more than add to our burgeoning prospect list? Lastly, your pen is too shaky for my taste. Hembree, Jax and Dobnak are filler material. We need help at the top. Tepera would be a nice add but he has never shown shut-down closer stuff here in Chicago. Must add an arm like Knebel, Graveman, Iglesias to offset continued uncertainty with Rogers, Duffey and Alcala. Bottom line, no way the Twins can have a $130MM ceiling and be realistic contenders without a lot of luck - from injuries to very rapid prospect advances to markedly improved coaching. Money won't completely mitigate such risks, but would almost certainly help to fill the inevitable holes inherent in a 162 game season.

If Cobb is best this FO can come up with, then the one positive should be their quick exit from the TC. a year from now. This team needs 2 top guys plus a Pineda-type(who I would prefer over Cobb in 3 spot). I have little faith in this org's ability to swing for the fences and a Cobb addition would unfortunately confirm my scepticism. With promises of a return to contention in 2022 and at least $50-60MM to spend, the FO/Pohlad have no excuses this time around, especially with the high quality of FA starters and some enticing trade candidates.

Nick, thanks for this very controversial proposal, but it sounds more like a rebuild, given the fact you have lost 3 of our top 4 offensive players with no immediate return. Why with all our supposed good prospects now do we add more? Wouldn't it be better to trade some prospects in a package for at least one young emerging starter rather than two middle rotation guys like E Rod and Kluber? Like addition of Iglesias but would rather keep Rogers and instead add two relievers from the group of Knebel, Tepera or maybe Yates. That is a major boost to a very middlin' pen. Baez addition would bring a spark, to the SS position, but as others have said, he is now an all or nothing hitter, probably more like Sano. Why not just keep Sano.? Your lineup overall is much weaker than present with 4 potential question marks: Jeffers, Kepler, Larnach and Miranda. Best part of your proposal is going big for Ray. We need an ace to be a factor in the playoffs, no matter what the cost. And bringing in a strong #2 starter via trade and a solid #3 guy(perhaps Thor or even Pineda) would greatly improve this team's chances for contention in 2022, assuming we do not lose 3 of our top 4 hitters. Sure I'd like to add a stud SS but without adding to your $130MM budget ceiling don't see how that's possible given our glaring holes in the rotation. If Pohlad is honest about a quick return to contention, he better be open to raising that "ceiling" so many on TD are fixating on. And I have to join the chorus, adding a big NO on trading our one true star, Buxton. This is not a contending team w/o him.

The reality is that none of us know his trade value, incl. ML Trade values, but their current rating for Arraez is 33. Adding Jeffers @ 20 and someone like Canterino(10) you have a "trade" for Lopez who currently has a 65 value. I would think that would be an enticing package for the Fish. This trade makes sense for Twins who have Garver as #1 catcher, Arraez without a clear position and Canterino a very promising but totally unproven prospect. Lopez does not have a long track record but by all reports, has the makings of a strong #2 starter who is controlled for several years. This is exactly the kind of trade the Twins Brain Trust should be all over!

Terry, thanks for reemphasizing need for signing 3 pitchers who can really move the needle for this team. You've shown how a $130MM budget is inadequate for acquiring such talent. $140MM is a floor for contention in 2022. As to your selections, Ray would be a clear ace on this team, but likely to get a QO. With a #8 first round draft pick, just can't see FO pulling the trigger. Ditto with Rodon and probably Gausman. Stroman looks like best bet but it would take out-bidding some big market teams to land him. Alcantara would be a fine addition but Twins could not afford to give up 3 starting offensive players. They must be prepared to give up Garver or Jeffers(I would think the fish would be more interested in the younger Jeffers) and either Arraez(better) or Kepler plus one of our top pitching prospects. Too many questions in the OF(even if Bux resigned) to trade Kepler, Celestino better as reserve OF, not a starter. Lopez might be more attainable. And finally, Pineda would be a solid #3, at least for a year, but would prefer a trade for someone like Gallen or Manaea with higher upside. Thor would be a great fallback signing, but again, question of QO.

The two assumptions: 1.) return to contention in 2022 and 2.) a $130 MM budget limit are incompatible. Your projected roster is proof of that, IMO. Yes, you have filled the rotation with 3 veteran starters, but none are front-of-rotation types, except possibly Verlander and he is 39, coming off a serious injury and is a one year signing. Why not spend that money(or slightly more) on a longer term starter, like Rodon, Ray or Stroman? Jon Gray might be a solid #3, but I'd prefer a more known quantity like Pineda who would probably cost less and for two rather than 3 years. And why give up Kepler for one year of Manaea, a pitcher probably no better than Pineda(at least for next year)? Would much rather put together a package for Alcantara or Lopez, two young, promising pitchers who could anchor this staff for 3-5 years. Marlins are desperate for a catcher and OF help. We have "excess" in both areas, together with some expendable top pitching prospects, Jeffers, Arraez/Kepler, plus a top prospect not named Ryan or Ober seems fair. I would give up Kepler reluctantly, as two holes in the OF would handicap the rebound, but for of either of these 2 would be worth it. The pen needs more help than you show. Yates could be a great turnaround bargain, but certainly can't be counted on to return to his former closer level. Neris is no bargain if he continues his falloff from his earlier success. We can and should do better. Certainly think two shutdown types are required on a contending team - one that might even advance a round in the playoffs. Rogers and Duffey are good but their recent decline(as noted by their % Inherited Runners Scored) necessitates addition of at least one shutdown reliever. My preferences : Ryan Tepera and Corey Knebel, two FAs who shouldn't break the bank, that is, if Kimbrel is unavailable. And, yes, Buxton must be resigned if talk of returning to relevance in 2022 is really the goal. You list his compensation package at $14MM, but since the two sides reportedly agreed to base of 7 years@$80MM, chances are you're looking in the $20-25MM range for 2022, depending on GP. So it looks like payroll should be a minimum of $140MM - and that would be tight. Nick, your plan for 2022 could work if 2 or 3 of our pitching prospects were contributing above league averages in 2022/23 and beyond. I just think with this org's history of pitching development failures, that would be like pulling an inside straight. Maybe 1 or 2 of the current crop could mature into dependable starters, but I'd rather hedge my bets by having at least two outside acquisitions that have a higher probability of being an elite pitcher than Ober, Ryan, et. al.

Buy Low = Continued Mediocrity. I'll pass!!

Agree with Knebel. Do not want another project, i.e., Bradley. Get Ryan Tepera or Graveman though the latter is going to be pricey. What Twins really need is a hard thrower who can get the K with men on base. Other than Duran, no one in the minors fits this description, nor do present bullpen arms, with possible exception of Alcala. Twins' failure to date to develop such arms is major factor in the pen's horrific inherited runs scored %. That has to change!!

Nice work - you have some interesting ideas, particularly picking up Corey Knebel as a potential closer. Add Ryan Tepera to the pen and you've markedly improved a glaring weakness. And you're on the right track in trading Garver to Miami for rotation help, but there's no reason to shoot so low(not that Sanchez is not a top prospect, but we have enough prospects). We need top-of-the rotation starters, like Alcantara or Lopez, while the Marlins need OF help in addition to catching. What about Garver(or Jeffers who I think would garner more interest from a young team on the rise) and Kepler(or Arraez). Throw in one of our top 10 prospects or Larnach, and I think the fish would bite. Can't get too excited about Gray as our top FA signing. Instead of a pricey FA SS like Seager, spend the money on a Rodon or Ray or Stroman or Gausman. We can fill the shortstop hole with a good fielding SS for a fraction of the price Seager would cost, leaving $25MM/yr for one of the four listed above. Either Thor, Gray or Pineda(in that order) would slot in as a solid #3, giving us one of the stronger rotations in the league. Of course, if the FO has no intention of contending in 2022, then your plan is more likely(sans Seager) but do you really think the 2023 Twins would contend for the playoffs? I just don't have enough faith in this org's prospect development program to count on at least 3 of our young pitchers to all be positive contributors in a 2023 playoff push. You have to remember that our lineup for the next 2-3 years is competitive with Bux, JD, Sano, Polanco, Kirillof forming a pretty solid core. Why waste this core in another rebuild?

Nick, nice summary as usual!! To put some meat on the bones, would suggest we need answers to 3 critical questions: 1. What dollars are available to spend this offseason? Glee-man in The Athletic laid out a scenario where the amount ranges from $45-60MM, depending on whether budget is $125MM or $140MM(which he posits as likely upper limit). 2. Is ownership really committed to contending again in 2022? If taken at face value, budget had better be in $140-160MM range to come close to this goal. 3. What is FO position on Buxton - resign, trade or status quo? Can anyone logically argue that Buxton is not the key piece to rebounding in 2022? If resigned, likely that Gleeman's $8MM amount for Buxton is far too low. As most on this post have noted, Bux's incentives likely to push his 2022 salary to $20MM + if resigned. So let's assume available dollars are in $50MM range. Now let's review your 6 key questions, keeping in mind that the FO's sole goal this offseason is have a contending team next year: 1. Lewis is a big unknown. Not only because he's missed 2 straight years, but because his ability to handle SS is questionnable, at least from most scouting reports available. This leaves Twins uncertain at this critical position, so FA would seem the way to go, but if the Twins play their usual waiting game, chances are they will not be able to fill this position long term; instead, a second level, but good fielding SS who can stay for 2-3 years is much more likely. There simply is no one in Twins farm system that appears anywhere near ready. As Nick points out, this second tier is a big dropoff from first, but offense should withstand an average batter, good fielder at this critical position if current offensive keys like Donaldson, Sano, Bux, Polanco and Garver remain. 2. Pretty obvious that Twins need to add three top rotation pitchers in offseason. Pineda would seem logical as a #3. The top two spots can be filled by FA and trade. They should shoot high for a stud. Ray, Rodon, Stroman - appear best bets if they do not get QO. Guys like Thor or Gausman have more injury risk, hence lower cost. In either case, for the FO to be successful in acquiring a front end arm, they would have to strike fast at onset of FA instead of waiting around the edge of the pool to see who is left. Figure $20-25MM alone. The #2 arm should be a fast developing, young established major leaguer like Lopez or Alcantara. Such an arm would require an overpay, but Twins have excess in the catching dept.(Jeffers), in mid IF(Arraez, Martin or even Lewis)) or OF(Kepler) plus some good young pitching prospects not named Ryan or Ober. I would not hesitate to include a Balozavic, Duran, Strotman or Woods-Richardson if one was needed to clinch a deal(I would not give up Winder or Canterino who look like the highest ceiling pitching prospects now). 3. Yes, Rogers should remain as a key cog in pen, but his inability to keep inherited runners from scoring should preclude him being the closer. The FO obviously felt the same way, hence signing and starting Colome as the closer. So addition of one shut down closer seems a necessary add for a contender. Sure, a guy like Alcala could move into that position eventually but do you base your pen's success on a guy whose HR rate is almost 2 per 9 inn? Kimbrel at $15MM might become available; if not, there's a second tier incl. Melancon, Iglesias, and Jansen, who should slot in nicely as a closer-type. 4. The rest of the pen showed improvment, albeit in the later part of 2021 when the team was far out of contention. But guys like Duffey, Alcala, and Thielbar look solid enough, along with some newer arms like Moran, Coulombe and perhaps Duran to reduce number of needed outside additions. Still, I would bring in one or two low cost FAs to build much-needed depth. In any case, other than a closer, the pen should not take more than $5MM to upgrade. 5. The DH should be a rotational position, filled by position players as Donaldson, Sano, and Garver who need occasional days off. The hope is Miranda, Kirillof, and a FA catcher would be competent fill-ins for these guys. 6. We've already talked about Buxton. If he is unsigned or traded, all ownership/FO credibility on contention in next couple years is a pipe dream. That's how important Buxton is to near term success of Twins. Looks like a $150MM budget, bolstered by a couple of shrewd trades could vault us back into the discussion. Building a championship team will take longer because its formation is largely dependent on successful development of prospects into major league contributors. And a few lucky breaks along the way wouldn't hurt!!

Have to disagree on Baez after watching him play here on the north side for many years. Two reasons for a negative vote: 1.) On offense he is an all or nothing batter, K or HR; we need contact hitters! and 2.) love his spirit but not sure he's a good fit with laid-back, dispassionate Twins. Of course, he would be an upgrade over Simmons and if the budget was ample enough to resign Buxton, add one top rotation piece, and two back-end relievers, with money (probably at least $15-20MM for a one year contract) left for signing Baez, then go for it! Since this would necessitate a $150MM + payroll, what are the odds of this happening? Slim to none, IMO. It's just not in this org"s DNA to go on a spending spree.

He presents another one of the many dilemmas this offseason. His natural position is CF. He probably does not have enough power for the corners. If this team has any chance to contend in 2022, they must resign Buxton. If a rebuild is in order, then trading Buxton would be the choice. So far, ownership says they have no intention to rebuild, in which case resigning Buxton is a must. Celestino's maximum value might be as a trade piece for much needed pitching. Much easier to get a 4th OF from one of Lewis, Martin, Gordon or even Refsnyder. I'd see what the demand is for Celestino outside the organization.

Nice wish list, Nick!! It would be great if it happened, but highly improbable. I just hope the FO doesn't go into the offseason expecting Ryan to be a #2 starter or Lewis being the team's future star SS or Jax being a valuable member of the pen - that is, if they truly want to retool this team into a contender in 2022, as reported. I like Ryan a lot, but as a two pitch starter, his ceiling might be limited. His IP were very limited and we just can't draw too many conclusions from his two starts each against 2 of the worst offenses in baseball(Cubs and Cleveland). He is undoubtedly our top pitching prospect as of now, but have to look at 2022 as a learning process. Coming off surgery, Lewis is unlikely to be of much value next year and all the scouting reports indicate he is not the long-term answer at SS. If his best fit is CF it means replacing Bux, and that would be a big downgrade! As for Jax, his HR tendencies would seem to preclude him from being anything more than a mop up reliever. We have plenty of those types. We need shutdown closer-types to move the needle! Best chance is Kirillof being a major contributor. I only hope he can be servicable in a corner OF, at least until Sano's contract has ended. Many say we could trade Donaldson or Sano, but this lineup would look very pedestrian without either one of these guys. Until Larnach can prove he belongs, Kirillof should be pencilled in to LF(or RF if Kepler helps bring back a #1 or 2 starter). But his upside is pretty encouraging, as you stated. This hopefully is a pessimistic take, but if the FO is staking their future jobs on such advancements, rather than add outside players to the present squad, I think we'll all be in for a disappointing season.

://Kluber/Thor, Ryan, Pineda, Ober and Dobnak work for me as their opening day 5. That rotation would lead to another 90 loss season. I can see Ryan and Ober as maybe being a decent back end of the rotation, though more likely only one will be successful. Pineda would be a decent middle rotation guy. Can't rely on Dobnak for anything. The league seems to have figured him out and to count on him in the rotation on a contender takes a big leap of faith at this stage. With all that said, its the top two arms that will make or break the FO's designs on contending next season. Kluber is simply too high a risk to be counted on; he fits more in the Happ/Shoe category of a Hail Mary at this point in his career. The twins need to shoot for an ace-type, either Rodon or Ray head the list, with Stroman, then Thor being good alternatives. As many others have mentioned a trade of some surplus players(Arraez, Garver/Jeffers?) should bring back a young, controlled major league pitcher. FO must utilize a two - pronged approach - sign one of top FA pitchers and add a #2 via trade route. This should allow enough money to also add a much-needed closer, as well as a FA SS. This is a team full of holes; half way measures will never work.