Lonestar

You are way underestimating Eduardo Rodriguez's salary.. He's going to get a qualifying offer. I think the AAV on a 3-4 year deal will exceed that *$18.4M).

FIFY They are still behind all of the playoff teams except the Yankees (and possibly the Mariners)

How do you give Price, Corbin and Strasburg F's and conclude Top FA starters are not risky?

By 2023? Royce Lewis. Anyway I expect he will still be a prospect because he will have ROY eligibility.

I think Falvine could have taken names and kicked butt if you would have given them $10M more to spend in 2021 (with Berrios, Maeda, and Pineda in place). I love the Rodon signing, but I suspect your salary is low. I would sign Alex Wood instead of Pineda. Have you noticed how much Kimbrel inhales for the ChiSox. My point is: You have too much tied up in a closer not name Liam Hendrick. Sign Andrew Chafin and save $6M+. Use the money for a real shortstop, like Freddie Galvis. And a real MIF like Endire Adrianza. Hand, Rosenthal, and Yates are past their Use By dates. Rosenthal will still belong to the .Athletics and is coming of TJS. Yates is also coming off TJS. For the same or less money, sign 2 semi-proven relievers like Tepera and McHugh. The question is: Does all of this put the Twins in position to justify Jeffers and Larnach for 3 years of Alcantara?

Let’s see! $150M player salary payroll - $79M already committed (YMMV) = $71M available $10M Buxton incentives $20M Rodon (seems light as Ray is projected at $22.5M) $4M Alcantara arbitration (you may have forgotten this) $10M Pineda $15M Kimbrel $10M proven reliever $2M shortstop (stopgap) $71M planned

What do you read into BJ Boyd's promotion?

Thompson and Wilson would be approximately fair for Pineda alone.

Nick is right about the recent apparent improvement in Hamilton's control. In his last 8 appearances dating back to June 25, he has pitched 15.1 innings, striking out 22 and walking only 4 for a 40.7 K%, 7.4 BB%, and K-BB% = 33.3%. In 6 of those 8 appearances, he pitched 2 or more innings. Obviously cherry picking but then again it appears something has changed. Make him the next addition to the 40-man and 25-man roster.

Cano gave up 3 runs on July 20, raising his AAA ERA from 3.21 to 4.50 and now 4.58 vs the 1.47 in AA. His xFIP has gone from 1.79 to 3.48. His K% has gone from 34.6% to 27.7% and his K-BB% has gone from 28.4% to 19.3%. This is not compelling evidence for a promotion to MLB, especially when you figure he doesn't have to be added next year and that there is going to be a 40-man roster crunch this off-season.

How well did that work in 2021? Duffey is getting by on smoke and mirrors if you look at his K%, BB%, HR/FB and BABIP. And a competitive teams needs 4 shutdown relievers, not 2. It would be good to find someone they can more or less count on for next year. Maybe then they could send Alcala to St. Paul to get fixed and/or experience some success.

Depending on who the Twins trade (and trade for) or otherwise jettison, there could be a lot of flexibilty on the active roster in August and September.

I don't think Cano has to be added to the 40-man roster next year, so I don't expect the Twins to add him this year unless he forces his way. His AAA stats are not that compelling yet.

Baez had a strained groin that limited his effectiveness and K% in "regular" season. How much do you think Chatwood will sign for? You know the Twins love his spin rates but will they pay that much for a long reliever? Call To The Pen pegged Foltynewicz for a NRI to a bad team. In 2018, his average FB was 96.8 MPH; in 2019 it was 94.9; in 2020 it was 91.4 (but rumored to be in the 94's by the end of September). Unless he is throwing 96+ in that showcase, i can see giving him a split contract with a NRI and a signing bonus that doesn't have to be prorated and maybe on opt out. Moreland has a career wOBA of .328. Hard pass. You mentioned Petit's appearances. In those, he has averaged more than an inning an appearance. My concern is the decline in K%. He made $5.5M last year. Maybe for Clippard money this year. Robertson's career OBP is based on 1 year that is not like the others. But you got him on my radar. He could be a candidate for a split contract with a NRI and a signing bonus. I had targeted Villar. He signed for $8.2M in his 3rd year of arb. Do you think he can be had for $3M? Same question for Freddy Galvis? I love the thought of signing Wood for a deal like the Dodgers did as 5th starter assuming I can make the other moves I want. I don't know if he would fit in the budget, especially if the 4th starter is James Paxton or Corey Kluber.

I was excited about the possibility of signing Profar until I realized how bad he was on dirt. Hard pass. Hernandez is versatile and perhaps the second best defensive 2B out there (next to Wong) but he is also the short side of a platoon when the Twins have plenty of RH hitters. Much of his versatility will be lost because the Twins don't have the movable parts that the Dodgers do. Is he worth $7M? If YES, do the Twins have it? Is he worth $2-4M more than Freddy Galvis? Taylor is not on the trade market. Nor is Marte. And if he was, Marte would cost more than Blake Snell would in trade -- almost Larnach + Duran + Balazovic..

I would love signing Profar given Donaldson’s calves. I think you’re right that Profar will go for a starting job elsewhere. I like the idea of someone like Rosenthal -- namely Trevor May. And Falvine do(es) spend money on relief pitchers. See Addison Reed. Yates makes sense in a vacuum but with limited funds available, I would rather spend $2M more on a surer thing (or two). Yates makes sense for the Dodgers. I love Taijuan Walker. He demotes Dobnak to fifth starter (at best), he might surpass Pineda, and he would be here 1 year after Pineda leaves.

Jonathan Schoop

If 4 years at $20M per doesn't make sense, how does 4 years at $25/$25/$15/$15 or $25/$25/$25/$5 make sense?

I wonder if Falvine will go for 5 years? I wonder if it would make any difference that Wheeler's agent is Jet Sports Agent -- Byron Buxton's agent.

I think you overpaid for 1-year of Ray some -- at least for an off-season trade. Also, I think the D'backs will be in contention and not so likely to trade Ray. Who are you trading for one year of Giles? Who is your backup Shortstop? Araez?

Your payroll comes in at $154M before extensions (and after fixing Harris). It makes sense to play Marwin at 3B instead of Sano, but it does weaken the bench.

Very realistic and well done. Your numbers for Wheeler might be high, but they likely even out with your low estimates on Odo and Hamels. I could see non-tendering Cron and bringing him back for a lesser amount. He was good until he got hurt. With your way, he is guaranteed to be back for only one year with no hard feelings. If that's all the Pohlads put into the pot, there is no money for extensions.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, your payroll would be more like $149M. The Padres are all in this year to save Pellers' job. Yates isn't going anywhere -- until they crash and burn.

Invoking the Rays doesn't seem right? Who do you have like Yonny Chirinos 26 games/18 starts/133 innings Ryan Yarborough 28 games/14 starts/141 innings Jalen Beeks 33 games/3 starts/104 innings I love Pomeranz. I don't think you can get him for 2/$7M. Fangraphs and MLB Trade Rumors both project 2/$16 and suggest a 3rd year. I would still do 2/$16M+ because there's no Qualifying Offer. Of course I could be wrong. I also don't get the fascination with Iglesias. And I heart Balazovic. I think he is underrated because he was a 5th round pick out of Canada. I would rate him ahead of Graterol because of his pitchability. He's available in the right deal. This isnt it. I think it's likely Blaze pitches in the MLB this year.