Ted Schwerzler

The Minnesota Twins were dealt a significant blow on February 6 when they found out the timetable for staff ace Ervin Santana's recovery. After undergoing surgery on his middle finger on his throwing hand, the club had to grasp the reality that he'll be on the shelf for the next 10-12 weeks. Putting his return sometime around late April or early May, Paul Molitor will have to make due in the meantime. With that in mind, Minnesota's focus now has to be on where to go from here. At the current moment, the only starting locks remain Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson. From there, Adelberto Mejia and Phil Hughes seem like good bets to claim a spot. The fifth and final spot should be up in the air for any number of arms to slot into. Names like Tyler Duffey, Dietrich Enns, Stephen Gonsalves. Fernando Romero, and Aaron Slegers should all be in the fold. Down in Fort Myers, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will have to work with Molitor to figure out who gives them the best shot going forward. Entering the offseason, the Twins needed to sign at least one top three arm. Someone that could slot in with Santana and Berrios was an absolute must for this roster. With a window of competitiveness opening, while the division itself got weaker, it simply made too much sense. That sentiment still rings true at this juncture, and the front office may even be looking at bringing in two arms to help pick up the slack. One thing is certain though, Santana's injury shouldn't change the course of the season. At 35 years old, Santana has a ton of mileage on his arm. He's doled out more than his fair share of sliders, and he's contributed over 2,300 innings at the big league level in his 13 year career. Yesterday, Twins Daily contributor Tom Froemming noted that the track record for pitcher's over the age of 35 is far from spectacular. In 2017, only seven pitchers were able to post seasons with at least 100 IP while being at least 35 years of age. In short, the expectation for Santana to miss time could've been high from the onset. If we're looking for a positive here, it could be spun to suggest it's better than the time missed happens in April as opposed to September. In 2017, Santana's 3.28 ERA was the second best mark of his career, and lowest since 2013. He posted a career high five complete games, and his 7th place finish in the Cy Young voting marked just the second time in 13 years that he's received votes. To put it simply, Santana was every bit the horse Minnesota needed a year ago. Looking ahead to 2018, there should be significantly more help for the Twins pitching staff. First and foremost, the relief corps has been vastly improved. Additions like Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney both have tremendous upside, while Addison Reed is one of the best gets over the course of the entire offseason. Add in that the youth has another year of development under its belt, and the water level as a whole should be raised. When all is said and done, injuries are going to occur for the majority of teams across Major League Baseball. The timing of Santana hitting the shelf is suboptimal, but there's significant points in the season in which the result could be much more detrimental. This team is still relatively void of superstar players and a next man up attitude should continue to be the mantra. Whether a rookie grabs a job out of spring training, or an established vet commands more from themselves, someone has an opportunity to fill Santana's shoes from the get go. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I think, if you can get him on a minor league deal, I'd prefer one year of Bautista. I'd definitely prefer Gomez at the right price, and Nunez should be affordable with what Frazier just got. Melky Cabrera is another name I'd consider, though didn't include him as he is a switch hitter.

With just a handful of days left until pitchers and catchers officially report to Fort Myers for spring training, Minnesota is nearing the end of its offseason. The main focus when it comes to additions is starting pitching, and due to the market, that remains the one area left unattended at this point. Whether before or after spring training officially kicks off I expect that to be dealt with. What remains to be seen is whether or not Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have interest in adding a bat to supplement their bench.As things stand right now, the Twins appear to be content opening the season with a bench of Robbie Grossman, Eduardo Escobar, Ehire Adrianza, Mitch Garver and Kennys Vargas. Considering the possible (see: likely) suspension for Miguel Sano, Zack Granite could also find his way into this group out of the gate. Of the names above, it's Vargas who is likely the most on the bubble. Out of options, and having bounced between Triple-A and the big leagues a season ago, he's probably the first to go if space is needed. Under the assumption that Vargas is the quintessential 25th man, the question revolves around whether or not he can be improved upon. From a construction standpoint, Vargas almost certainly needs to be replaced by a bat first player. Grossman figures to see regular time as the designated hitter, while Adrianza and Escobar have similar skill sets despite Eduardo toting the more capable bat. Garver is entrenched as the backup catcher, and should serve as a platoon option for starter Jason Castro. Bringing in another utility man means Minnesota relies solely on Grossman as the outfield option (which is currently the case), and the lack of a true bat could expose Grossman being heavily reliant on his on-base prowess. In an ideal world the Twins greatest addition to the bench would be in the form of a right-handed hitting outfielder. Offering the potential to pair with Max Kepler (should his facing left-handed pitching continue to be an issue) as well as play in a rotation across the corner spots makes a lot of sense. Between Adrianza, Escobar and Garver, each of the infield positions has a true and capable backup. After posting a -21 DRS in 630+ innings in the outfield during 2016, Grossman shored things up somewhat totaling a -3 DRS mark across 350+ innings a year ago. There's still plenty to be desired with the glove, but he showed that he can be less of a liability than he had previously been. Among the options, former Twins center fielder Carlos Gomez has an intriguing profile. He would give the club positional flexibility across all three positions, and posted a .340 OBP in 2017 with some pop. At 32 the hope would be that he could be had on a short-term deal, and that could be intriguing to Minnesota. Another more elderly option comes in the form of Jose Bautista. This would be a relative leap of faith given his age (37) and 2017 season. After posting a .674 OPS there's reason to believe that he's simply cooked. Bautista is just one year removed from an .800+ OPS however, and if you could get him on a minor-league deal or something incentive-laden there would be a level of intrigue. If you want to go more of an unconventional route, a versatile super-utility type could be a fit. Noted as a possible fit by Zone Coverage's Brandon Warne on Twitter, former Minnesota shortstop Eduardo Nunez has some appeal. Nunez played 20 games in the outfield a season ago for San Francisco, and he got some time out there for the Twins in his first stint with the club. His career -3 DRS across 322 OF innings slots in line with 2017 Grossman, and I'm not a big fan of non-traditional outfielders playing the position. That said, Nunez's .801 OPS from 2017 is more than enticing. He's posted a .778 OPS over the last two seasons while playing in at least 110 games during each. It seems if given semi-regular playing time, he can be an offensive asset as well. At the end of the day Kennys Vargas should probably be given a final shot. His career .748 is far from abysmal, and the .833 OPS in 47 games during the 2016 season was exciting. Vargas hasn't proven to be much of an OBP guy (just .311 for his career), and the 251/65 K/BB ratio is more than concerning. All of his eggs remain in the power basket, and if he's not taking free bases then he needs to be accumulating power numbers in bunches. At 27 he's no longer a prospect, and the Twins likely have a significant amount of information to feel comfortable with their evaluation of him. This seems like a no-lose scenario, with a slight opportunity for a win. Vargas is hardly a red flag on the 25-man, and you could do much worse. What Minnesota could also do is look for some competition or even to supplant him completely, and in turn, raise the water level as a whole. There are a few more weeks for us to see how this all plays out, but it'll be a story line worth watching this spring. Originally published at Off The Baggy. Click here to view the article

With just a handful of days left until pitchers and catchers officially report to Fort Myers for Spring Training, Minnesota is nearing the end of its offseason. The main focus when it comes to additions was starting pitching, and due to the market, that remains the one area left unattended at this point. Whether before or after spring training officially kicks off I expect that to be dealt with. What remains to be seen is whether or not Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have interest in adding a bat to supplement their bench. As things stand right now, the Twins appear to be alright opening the season with a bench of Robbie Grossman, Eduardo Escobar, Ehire Adrianza, Mitch Garver, and Kennys Vargas. Considering the possible (see: likely) suspension for Miguel Sano, Zack Granite could also find his way into this group out of the gate. Of the names above, it's Vargas that is more than likely the most on the bubble. Out of options, and having bounced between Triple-A and the big leagues a season ago, he's probably the first to go if space is needed. Operating under the assumption that Vargas is the quintessential 25th man, the question revolves around whether or not he can be improved upon. From a construction standpoint, Vargas almost certainly needs to be replaced by a bat first player. Grossman figures to see regular time as the designated hitter, while Adrianza and Escobar have similar skillsets despite Eduardo toting the more capable bat. Garver is entrenched as the backup catcher, and should serve as a platoon option for starter Jason Castro. Bringing in another utility man means Minnesota relies solely on Grossman as the outfield option (which is currently the case), and the lack of a true bat could expose Robbie being heavily reliant on his on-base prowess. In an ideal world the Twins greatest addition to the bench would be in the form of a right-handed hitting outfielder. Offering the potential to pair with Max Kepler (should his facing left-handed pitching continue to be a detriment) as well as play in rotation across the corner spots makes a lot of sense. Between Adrianza, Escobar, and Garver, each of the infield positions has a true and capable backup. After posting a -21 DRS in 630+ innings in the outfield during 2016, Grossman shored things up somewhat totaling a -3 DRS mark across 350+ innings a year ago. There's still plenty to be desired with the glove there, but he showed that he can be less of a liability if need be. Among the options, former Twins center fielder Carlos Gomez has an intriguing profile. He would give the club positional flexibility across all three positions, and posted a .340 OBP in 2017 with some pop. At 32 the hope would be that he could be had on a short-term deal, and that could be of intrigue to Minnesota. Another more elder option comes in the form of Jose Bautista. This would be a relative leap of faith given his age (37) and 2017 season. Posting a .674 OPS there's reason to believe that he's simply cooked. Bautista is just one year removed from an .800+ OPS however, and if you could get him on a minor-league deal or something incentive-laden there would be a level of intrigue. If you want to go more of an unconventional route, a versatile super-utility type could be a fit. Noted as a possible fit by Zone Coverage's Brandon Warne on Twitter, former Minnesota shortstop Eduardo Nunez has some appeal. Nunez played 20 games in the outfield a season ago for San Francisco, and he got some time out there for the Twins in his first stint with the club. His career -3 DRS across 322 OF innings slots in line with 2017 Grossman, and I'm not a big fan of non-traditional outfielders playing the position. That said, Nunez's .801 OPS from 2017 is more than enticing. He's posted a .778 OPS over the last two seasons while playing in at least 110 games during each. It seems given semi-regular playing time, he can be an offensive asset as well. At the end of the day Kennys Vargas should probably be given a final shot. His career .748 is far from abysmal, and the .833 OPS in 47 games during the 2016 season was exciting. Vargas hasn't proven to be much of an OBP guy (just .311 for his career), and the 251/65 K/BB ratio is more than concerning. All of his eggs remain in the power basket, and if he's not taking free bases then he needs to be accumulating them in bunches. At 27 he's no longer a prospect, and the Twins likely have a significant amount of information to feel comfortable with their evaluation of him. This seems like a no lose scenario, with a slight opportunity for a win. Vargas is hardly a red flag on the 25 man, and you could do much worse. What Minnesota could also do is look for some competition or even to supplant him completely, and in turn, raise the water level as a whole. There's a few more weeks for us to see how this all plays out, but it'll be a storyline worth watching this spring. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

With Aaron Judge following up his incredible rookie season by landing the cover of MLB The Show 18, the most limited edition has been dubbed "All Rise." If there's anything to glen from the gameplay release trailer that dropped today, it's that the team at Sony San Diego is going all out. While much of the gameplay is hard to deduce from the trailer, it looks as crisp as we've become accustomed to. The more necessary tweaks include tagging animations, hitting analysis, and overall refinements to the experience. That being said, there was more than a few big bits of excitement from the trailer debut, and most of them center around the Diamond Dynasty game mode. After having Ken Griffey Jr. act as the cover boy a season ago, and make his debut on the virtual diamond, a handful of former greats enter the fold for the year ahead. First and foremost, Babe Ruth becomes the headliner. With an epic teaser sequence including his called shot, Ruth being prominently featured in a game highlighting Judge made all too much sense. The Hall of Famer will be joined by the likes of Doc Ellis, Don Sutton, Pee Wee Reese, Lee Smith, Troy Percival, and Benito Santiago. With this just being the first bit of information put forth for the new iteration, we could have a few more legends yet to be unveiled. On top of the additions to the card collecting game mode, the trailer also showed off the Judge's Chambers in Yankee Stadium. After including stadium specific areas such as King's Court in Seattle and The 7 Line in New York a season ago, it's nice to see the presentation get expanded upon. There was also a tease of an airplane scene that would likely coincide with the popular Road to the Show mode. After being turned into somewhat of an RPG style narrative a season ago, expanding on the created player journey to the big leagues is a nice touch. The official release date of MLB The Show 18 remains March 27, although a preorder will get you the game a few days earlier. Expect plenty of live streams and content drops in the coming weeks to further highlight what's new in the upcoming version. Also here at Off The Baggy, I intend to do a regular hit on who to monitor for investment purposes in The Show 18 this season. Combining the allure of virtual baseball along with real life statistics in order to profit in the game is something that was great fun a year ago. Not looking to be a content creator, a regular blog post detailing where to keep your eye both on the diamond and in the game seems like a great crossover. See you all in The Show. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Thanks for all the responses, I think it’s genuinely an interesting talking point. One thing I do want to address regarding a few comments. If you’re suggesting it’s unfair for players to have demands, I can’t agree. Again, they’re millionaires taking billionaires money. Sure, in comparison to our norms, you’ll never be able to wrap your head around it. From a basic economic structure though, that argument is rather baseless. Players deserve to be paid, regardless of how lopsided it looks in regards to societal norms.

Dozier, Donaldson, Blackmon, McCutchen, etc are all superior talents to the likes of Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Todd Frazier. That being said, yes, long term deals are by and large a thing of the past because of how teams have compiled data on them turning out. That's the point though. You can't tell me Hosmer or Martinez is justified in their complaining of the process when they're out there seeking 8 year deals and $200 million. Shift to what the market is telling you. If you're asking for 3-5 year deals at $25m+ AAV and not getting it, then I'd be much more in agreement that the process is broken. Teams can absolutely afford to hand out big money, and they should. Ask them to do so in a situation that the market has dictated makes sense then. When you're getting guys like Torii Hunter in 2015 at 39 years old finding a 1yr/$10m deal, there's no reason why you can't take big money and less years in your lower 30's, then go year-to-year as you age. Having teams hang onto guys like Pujols in his current state because of the financial commitment doesn't do any good for market efficiencies either. At the end of the day, the opportunity will remain as long as the production does.

It's top-heavy. There's a few guys at the top worthy of suggesting upper tier, but there's a ton of warts with this class too. The reality is that, in general, free agents hitting the market in their 30's and asking for 10 year deals doesn't make sense. Pivot with the information that you have to turn towards a higher AAV to capitalize while you should have a level of productivity that leaves organizations comfortable with the valuation.

As I replied in the blog space, the players should continue to get a significant portion of the pie. I'll side with millionaires over billionaires all day long. The problem is they're attacking it in the wrong way, and not playing into market trends.

It's top-heavy. There's a few guys at the top worthy of suggesting upper tier, but there's a ton of warts with this class too. The reality is that, in general, free agents hitting the market in their 30's and asking for 10 year deals doesn't make sense. Pivot with the information that you have to turn towards a higher AAV to capitalize while you should have a level of productivity that leaves organizations comfortable with the valuation.

This offseason free agents across Major League Baseball have felt a squeeze of sorts. Now into February, more than 50 quality big leaguers still remain out in the cold with respect to playing destinations for the upcoming season. While I will always argue in favor of millionaire players over billionaire owners, the complaints of the job seekers seem to be somewhat shallow given the current marketplace.Looking at the list of the top 25 free agents for 2018 from MLB.com, only four of the top 10 players available have been inked to deals. Shohei Ohtani chose the Los Angeles Angels in a deal that was never going to reflect true market value. Wade Davis inked the largest relief contract ever with the Rockies, Jay Bruce rejoined the Mets, and Lorenzo Cain entered the National League with the Milwaukee Brewers. However, the battle cry continues to be that money is scarce on the market, and players demand better. In a tweet from agent Brody Van Wagenen, threats regarding a strike were made, and indications of former $200 million and $300 million deals were alluded to. It's absolutely fair on one hand to see players band together; being represented by a union, that's what should take place. That being said, the threat of a strike while failing to realize market indications seems somewhat like misplaced frustration. First and foremost, a strike would effectively squash all positive momentum the sport has, which is currently experiencing popularity at its peak. The players stand to gain nothing in the long run from a strike, and comparing the current landscape to that of 1994 couldn't be further from level ground. The second part of the equation however, is what both market factors and available commodities are telling us. There're two real situations at play this offseason in my mind. Situation number one is that the crop of free agents is, for lack of better descriptors, rather week. Jay Bruce was a top ten name, Yu Darvish is truly the only ace, and as good as he is, J.D. Martinez as a true designated hitter becomes a top three get (this coming from someone who genuinely supports the DH, and believes it ought to be universal). No doubt owners have revenues to disperse, but there is a lack of players worthy of the funds to be allocated, in a sense. The second situation is that the impending free agent class represents one of the greatest to ever hit the open market. Brian Dozier, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Charlie Blackmon, Byrce Harper, A.J. Pollock, and Andrew McCutchen highlight the bats. On the mound, names like Gio Gonzalez, Clayton Kershaw (likely), Dallas Keuchel, Klevin Herrera, Craig Kimbrel, and Zach Britton all get the engine running. As harsh of a reality as it may be, the money allocated for those players should be significantly more than what's currently available. I'm absolutely in favor of a player being paid whatever they can get, and your worth as far as a contract goes should be whatever someone is willing to pay you. However, it seems that agents are overreaching while players are lulled into a false sense of reality. When it comes to a free market structure, it's generally the market that dictates valuations. One player commanding an unrealistic amount would effectively throw off the valuations surrounding the entirety of a current class or one in the future. We have heard reports of Darvish seeking something north of seven years and $175 million, while someone like Hosmer has been reported to have seven year deals on the table, but holding out for eight. There've been notes reporting Martinez is looking for $200 million, and Arrieta could be commanding as much. Sure, given the current availability of free agents, those numbers might not be ridiculous in a vacuum. The problem however, is that organizations are trying to create a culture of consistent winning. By offering Martinez $200m or Hosmer eight years, the correct structure of a Machado or Harper deal becomes $600m or 15 years. At some point, there has to be reality to the sliding scale matching talent or return, with valuation. Throw into the equation that front offices are also now more intelligent than ever before. Analytics may not have entirely taken over the on-field product, but you can bet that algorithms are run for virtually every dollar amount thrown into a discussion. No longer does a team want to get stuck paying Albert Pujols $240m over 10 years, while he limps through two-thirds of the deal. The Zack Greinke's and Giancarlo Stanton's over the world make the money easier to wrap your head around given the age factor (similar to what Machado and Harper will experience), but massive paydays spread across significant time commitments for players into their 30's has long been a negative proposition. At the end of the day, I expect a dam to break, and it's the players that probably need to do some budging. Sure, there's absolutely money to be spent, and the sport should continue to foster payroll growth. What can't happen however, is for talent to hold money hostage until market inefficiencies are forced. The future viability of contracts relies upon a level of consistency year over year. Baseball being an uncapped sport leads to an interesting economic study created entirely by its own doing. The sport needs Darvish and Hosmer thrilling fans, but it also needs them doing it in a scenario that makes sense for future markets as well. We may have had one of the most boring off-seasons in recent memory, but there's a time crunch coming, and the craziness could just be about to start. Originally posted at Off The Baggy. Click here to view the article

This offseason free agents across Major League Baseball have felt a squeeze of sorts. Now into February, more than 50 quality big leaguers still remain out in the cold with respect to playing destinations for the upcoming season. While I will always argue in favor of millionaire players over billionaire owners, the complaints of the job seekers seem to be somewhat shallow given the current marketplace. Looking at the list of the top 25 free agents for 2018 from MLB.com, only four of the top 10 players available have been inked to deals. Shohei Ohtani chose the Los Angeles Angels in a deal that was never going to reflect true market value. Wade Davis inked the largest relief contract ever with the Rockies, Jay Bruce rejoined the Mets, and Lorenzo Cain entered the National League with the Milwaukee Brewers. However, the battle cry continues to be that money is scarce on the market, and players demand better. In a tweet from agent Brody Van Wagenen, threats regarding a strike were made, and indications of former $200 million and $300 million deals were alluded to. It's absolutely fair on one hand to see players band together; being represented by a union, that's what should take place. That being said, the threat of a strike while failing to realize market indications seems somewhat like misplaced frustration. First and foremost, a strike would effectively squash all positive momentum the sport has, which is currently experiencing popularity at its peak. The players stand to gain nothing in the long run from a strike, and comparing the current landscape to that of 1994 couldn't be further from level ground. The second part of the equation however, is what both market factors and available commodities are telling us. There's two real situations at play this offseason in my mind. Situation number one is that the crop of free agents is, for lack of better descriptors, rather week. Jay Bruce was a top ten name, Yu Darvish is truly the only ace, and as good as he is, J.D. Martinez as a true designated hitter becomes a top three get (this coming from someone who genuinely supports the DH, and believes it ought to be universal). No doubt owners have revenues to disperse, but there's a lack of players worthy of the funds to be allocated in a sense. The second situation is that the impending free agent class represents one of the greatest to ever hit the open market. Brian Dozier, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Charlie Blackmon, Byrce Harper, A.J. Pollock, and Andrew McCutchen highlight the bats. On the mound, names like Gio Gonzalez, Clayton Kershaw (likely), Dallas Keuchel, Klevin Herrera, Craig Kimbrel, and Zach Britton all get the engine running. As harsh of a reality as it may be, the money allocated for those players should be significantly more than what's currently available. I'm absolutely in favor of a player being paid whatever they can get, and your worth as far as a contract goes should be whatever someone is willing to pay you. However, it seems that agents are overreaching while players are lulled into a false sense of reality. When it comes to a free market structure, it's generally the market that dictates valuations. One player commanding an unrealistic amount would effectively throw off the valuations surrounding the entirety of a current class or one in the future. We have heard reports of Darvish seeking something north of seven years and $175 million, while someone like Hosmer has been reported to have seven year deals on the table, but holding out for eight. There's been notes reporting Martinez is looking for $200 million, and Arrieta could be commanding equally as much. Sure, given the current availability of free agents, those numbers might not be ridiculous in a vacuum. The problem however, is that organizations are trying to create a culture of consistent winning. By offering Martinez $200m or Hosmer eight years, the correct structure of a Machado or Harper deal becomes $600m or 15 years. At some point, there has to be reality to the sliding scale matching talent or return, with valuation. Throw into the equation that front offices are also now more intelligent than ever before. Analytics may not have entirely taken over the on field product, but you can bet that algorithms are ran for virtually every dollar amount thrown into a discussion. No longer does a team want to get stuck paying Albert Pujols $240m over 10 years, while he limps through two-thirds of the deal. The Zack Greinke's and Giancarlo Stanton's over the world make the money easier to wrap your head around given the age factor (similar to what Machado and Harper will experience), but massive paydays spread across significant time commitments for players into their 30's has long been a negative proposition. At the end of the day, I expect a dam to break, and it's the players that probably need to do some budging. Sure, there's absolutely money to be spent, and the sport should continue to foster payroll growth. What can't happen however, is for talent to hold money hostage until market inefficiencies are forced. The future viability of contracts relies upon a level of consistency year over year. Baseball being an uncapped sport leads to an interesting economic study created entirely by its own doing. The sport needs Darvish and Hosmer thrilling fans, but it also needs them doing it in a scenario that makes sense for future markets as well. We may have had one of the most boring off-seasons in recent memory, but there's a time crunch coming, and the craziness could just be about to start. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I'd agree to a certain extent. The first pick in baseball is never going to yield the results it does in football or basketball. What it does do for bad teams though, is (if you have a decent scouting process) provide an influx to what is likely a bad farm. The Royals and Tigers, or teams like them, could use all of the young controllable talent they can find.

The White Sox have added guys they can flip, and while the Royals may add Hosmer, they have no business competing. The Tigers have already begun to sell off, what reason would they have to add a competitive FA?

I didn’t realize the ticket situation, that’s really too bad. Would’ve liked to see very low get in prices, and now with the opportunity, a portion of sales given to recovery efforts.

I'd be pretty shocked if the Twins win 100

Each of the past two years, I've found myself thinking that the AL Central would fail to produce both a 90 game winner and a 90 game loser. Obviously at this point, we know that to be incorrect. While the Indians have held the crown in recent memory, the Twins, Tigers and White Sox have found themselves in the division's doldrums. Looking at 2018 though, the AL Central could produce a result we haven't seen for over 25 years.As Nick Nelson wrote recently, windows are currently open for the Minnesota Twins. Only the Cleveland Indians present a significant challenge within the division, and the three other teams are genuinely up a creek without a paddle. Kansas City is attempting to hang on despite no real farm, the Tigers are both old and bad, and the White Sox have a loaded system not ready to bear fruit. For the year ahead, that makes the division look like a split between two options. If both the Indians and the Twins are going for it, the bottom three could find themselves chasing for the number one overall pick in the 2019 Major League Baseball draft. Considering the boost both Detroit and Kansas City need in terms of prospects, landing a stud at 1/1 could be more than appealing. The game as a whole has trended towards a tank philosophy in that the have-nots simply look for the quickest route to add an influx of controllable talent. Getting back to the historical feat referenced earlier, the landscape of the division could hand us just that. Since 2013, the AL Central has not seen at least two teams win 90 games, with another two losing that many. That isn't long ago; but Minnesota being one of the 90 game winners in that scenario hasn't taken place since 1992. At that time, the AL Central wasn't yet constructed, and the hometown nine were coming off of a World Series-winning campaign. They teamed up with the Oakland Athletics to surpass the 90 win plateau, while the California Angels, Royals and Seattle Mariners all found themselves losing at least 90 tilts. Sure, it's fair to note that at that time in history the West division was home to seven different franchises. With greater room for error, the divisional landscape wasn't as tight as the current five team makeup forces it to be. Even with that in mind, the opportunity for history to repeat itself seems rather ripe. Despite losing key pieces Carlos Santana and Bryan Shaw, it's hard to suggest that Cleveland isn't the front runner out of the gate. No one has challenged them of late, and until they're knocked off, the top dog position remains settled. Minnesota bounced back from a growing year endured by a young core during 2016 to make the postseason a year ago. With that experience under their belt, they should be expected to take yet another step forward. I'd imagine projection systems will peg them for something like .500, but that represents a step up from a season ago, and probably doesn't accurately account for what Kansas City, Chicago and Detroit will be putting out there for the better half of the season. It's more than apparent that Minnesota has a perfect storm brewing in their favor. Not only has the emergence of long-awaited prospects come and gone, but the divisional landscape has also begun to shift in their favor. What was a Wild Card team a year ago could legitimately be looking at a better path to the postseason through their own division. When the dust settles, expecting a significant distance between the top and bottom is hardly impossible to fathom. With so many players left unsigned, I'm not yet ready to put predictions on the division by team, but it seems clear to me that not all five of these organizations are created equal right now. Minnesota has an opportunity to be among the in- crowd with 90 wins, and they could end up looking behind them to see a trio of teams racing the opposite way. Maybe this ends up like the previous years of 90 wins and losses predictions, but it sure seems to be trending in the direction of history, 25 years in the making, repeating itself. Click here to view the article

Entering the 2018 Major League Baseball season, Brian Dozier looks to his future and sees free agency looming. Despite allowing the Minnesota Twins to buy out his arbitration years in a four-year, $20 million deal, the hometown squad couldn't lock him in past free agency. Now, as the two sides ponder an extension, it's worth wondering how the year ahead could go for one of baseball's best players. Dating back to 2014, only Jose Altuve has been at the position (in terms of fWAR) than the Twins two-bagger. In that time, Dozier has become an All Star, Home Run Derby participant, Gold Glove winner, and MVP vote getter. He began as an aging and failed shortstop, and revolutionized himself into a premium player at a position generally void of them across the sport. Despite hitting 42 long balls in 2016, Dozier's emergence as an offensive threat has been anything but a slow burn. He's been on a relative tear for the past four seasons. With a slash line of .254/.338/.476 and 127 homers since 2014, there's no denying that the Mississippi native could be inserted into the heart of many lineups across the sport. Looking at the year ahead and beyond, it's worth wondering what to expect from Brian, and what that tells us about any more potentially on the table. First and foremost, it's worth mentioning that there seems to be a heightened level of performance in the final year of deals. Both Dozier and the Twins could strike a match before spring training ends, and while there's not an exact science to it, nothing on the table could prove as motivation to reach new heights. In somewhat of an interesting case, Dozier is a late bloomer. He didn't reach the big leagues until 25, and he didn't become a significant cog until his age 27 season in 2014. He's played at least 152 games each of the past four years, and while there's been slumps tied loosely to overuse, his availability to the Twins has been remarkable. Recent memory serves Dozier even more favorably. Over the past two seasons, Dozier has posted back to back .800+ OPS numbers, and compiled a .269/.349/.522 slash line. His 131 OPS+ jumps off the page, and his 76 homers are an astounding number given the position he plays. While the Gold Glove may be more reflective of his offensive prowess, it's hard to argue Brian Dozier as anything but the best second basemen not named Jose Altuve at the current juncture. That being said, both Dozier and the Twins aren't too concerned with what has taken place. Although it's previous production that Brian will tie his argument for future dollars to, it's the projections going forward that will open the wallets of any would be suitors. Now on the wrong side of 30 years old, Dozier's case is somewhat of an anomaly. He's been a beacon of health throughout his time in the big leagues, and as a senior sign, compiled only 365 games in the minors. While he's aging, there's an argument to be made that there could be a decent amount of tread left on the tires. Trying to glean insight from ZiPS as well Marcell projection systems, Dozier has some 2018 numbers to pick at. ZiPS sees a .257/.341/.482 slash with 31 homers, while Marcell comes in with a .259/.337/.494 slash and also 31 homers. Both the OPS numbers fall below the .856 mark posted in 2017, but remain above the .800 level that would put him in star company. After following up the 42 Home run output with a tally of 34 a year ago, the projection systems agreeing on 31 would be almost exactly in line with his four-year average. What I think we can expect from Brian Dozier in 2018 is something along the lines of what he's established as norms. The power should continue to be there, even despite an expected level of regression a season ago. Reaching the 30 plateau should again be more than doable, and doing so with an .800+ OPS is hardly a longshot. Among the biggest areas of growth in recent seasons for Dozier has been his ability to get on base. Although he strikes out too much for a leadoff hitter, the ability to draw walks has grown, and his .359 OBP of 2017 was a shining bright spot. Dropping down to something like a .345 OBP wouldn't be unexpected, but it would hardly be a significant detractor either. It's understandably hard to believe in immeasurable principles, but should Dozier enter the season in a "contract year," then I think we'd be in for a slight uptick across the board. Regardless, any level of regression should be muted as it appears the late-bloomer is in the heart of his prime. A long term deal may not benefit the signing team well as an elder free agent can crash fast, but Minnesota has to feel good about getting Dozier's best for as long as they have. If we've learned anything over the past two or three seasons with Dozier, it's not to bet against him. While he's transformed himself into a pull hitter while generating significant power, he's also adapted to opposing pitchers. Up and in balls still end up over the fence, but he's been able to do far more than the approach had initially suggested may be possible. An overview of the 2018 Twins lineup should again be described as a run producer, but there's little mystery to the fact that Brian Dozier will be in the heart of that reality. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I really enjoy that the Twins have cultivated young talent from PR and think it's really cool that MLB made an effort to make sure the series still gets played. Sorry you felt that way.

After narrowly missing the bulk of Hurricane Irma's effects, Puerto Rico will look back on Wednesday September 20, 2017 as a day it won't soon forget. Hurricane Maria makes landfall and demolishes the small island. A place that has become a growing epicenter for baseball talent, and set to host a Major League Baseball series in 2018, was simply devastated. This isn't a tale of the destruction however, but instead a look at the resolve of each part involved. Early in January 2018, Major League Baseball officially announced that the two game series (April 17th and 18th) between the Cleveland Indians and Minnesota Twins will still take place. Hiram Bithorn Stadium, the site for the contests, was badly damaged during both hurricanes Irma and Maria. While the island itself remains the focus, it is the stadium that was set to house baseball for what was destined to be a great moment for the sport. As the weather interrupted, there was a serious doubt cast upon what was next for baseball's plans. As did the people of Puerto Rico, the Minnesota Twins persevered and continued from the onset to suggest that the games would go on as scheduled. For both the Indians and the Twins, Puerto Rico holds a special place among the 25 man roster and the organization as a whole. For the Indians, Francisco Lindor hails from the small island, and is a great friend of Twins star Jose Berrios. Cleveland's backup catcher Roberto Perez calls Puerto Rico home, while Eddie Rosario and Kennys Vargas also represent Puerto Rico in Minnesota. The influx of talent into Major League Baseball hailing from the small island has truly been a joy to watch. Minnesota has been especially keen on developing the island as they've continued to use top draft picks on natives such as Jose Miranda and Ricardo de la Torre. Looking across the sport, some of the biggest names accelerating the game forward hail from Puerto Rico. Including Lindor and Berrios, it's also hard to overlook World Champions Carlos Correa and Javier Baez. Seattle Mariners closer Edwin Diaz also has burst onto the scene, and has represented his homeland incredibly well. Although their elder, Yadier Molina has also been a leader for quite some time. There's a relative brotherhood tying each of them together, and it's obvious that there's a pride in being able to represent Puerto Rico at the highest level. In getting to know the Minnesota Twins Jose Berrios from afar over the past few seasons, seeing the passion for the place he calls home is truly special. From highlighting his beach workouts, to giving back through charity events with Baez and Lindor, or playing in events put on by Molina, there's no end to the pride and generosity. For Berrios, playing a series of games back home in the wake of a tragedy that was trying on multiple levels, will certainly be a joy. Sports have often tried to transcend the United States, and expand their borders. While it's not easy to get behind the NFL playing games in London or the NBA in Mexico City, Major League Baseball in Puerto Rico seems like a match made in heaven. The island has continued to foster the sport, and the excitement for the big leagues that starts at such a young age their may be unrivaled. Allowing two teams with young stars so prolific among the Puerto Rican community to put their island on display was heartwarming even before the tragic events caused by two massive storms. While the island is still grieving and looking to get back to its former self, baseball may be able to provide a small sense of healing. Jose Berrios' aunt Maria recently noted on Twitter that she just received power. This came 147 days after Hurricane Irma made landfall. She goes on to note that 40% of the island still remains without power, and there's still significant rebuilding to be done. Hiram Bithorn Stadium's improvements and reconstruction done in advance of the Twins and Indians series is such a small blip on the radar, but the healing provided by what takes place there can be an impactful step in the right direction. Puerto Rico isn't yet distanced from two storms that rocked the island to its core, and it will continue to take time and hard work in order to restore a previous sense of completeness. That being said, the island of Puerto Rico has persevered, Major League Baseball stayed its course, and the healing from a sport could be an integral part in helping the amazing territory to move forward. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Lewis was highest on BA's list, behind Gore and Greene on Law's, and behind Gore on MLB's

On June 12, 2017 the Minnesota Twins found themselves making the first overall pick in the Major League Baseball Amateur Draft. Hunter Greene was the trendy cover boy, while Brendan McKay was the two-way star, and Kyle Wright was the dominant pitcher. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine opted to take Royce Lewis, the super athlete and elite high school shortstop. The pick looked solid enough at the time, but since, it's only looked more and more like a slam dunk. Recently, Baseball America, Keith Law, and MLB Pipeline all unveiled their top 100 prospect lists. The three sources didn't see Minnesota in the same light with the Twins having five, three, and four players make the cut respectively. While there's some differentiation, Twins Daily's Nick Nelson did a great job looking at what the major prospect lists are saying about the Twins. What stands out as the most impressive bit of information, at least to me however, is just how glowingly Minnesota's 18 year-old pick at 1-1 is viewed. Across the three main lists revealed (with Baseball Prospectus' list still due out), Royce Lewis comes in at an average of the 23rd best prospect in baseball. He's either viewed as the best prospect from the 2018 draft, or second only to the third overall pick, MacKenzie Gore. Not set to turn 19 until June of 2018, Lewis has already debuted at Low-A, and put up an impressive .757 OPS at the level. Playing an elite position on the diamond, everything continues to be trending upwards for the JSerra High School product. While there's little reason for Minnesota to fast track a high school pick such as Lewis, his ability should continue to force their hand. Getting to Low-A as quickly as he did, Lewis reached the level even faster than the last player taken at 1-1 by Minnesota, Joe Mauer. Mauer made his Single-A debut at 19, and was with Double-A New Britain for 73 games as a 20 year old. His .785 OPS with Quad Cities falls right in line with that of Lewis, and when looking across past Twins success, it's hard to turn anywhere but the current legend. Still growing into his body, scouts fully expect Lewis to come into more power as he matures. Putting up four home runs in his first pro action, the expectation of future 20 HR potential is far from being out of the realm of possibility. It's been discussed that the Twins have a glut of talent at the shortstop position, pairing Lewis with Nick Gordon, Wander Javier, Jemaine Palacios, and others, but that's hardly a bad thing. Whether Lewis sticks in the infield or not, a worst case scenario pushes him to being the most athletic outfielder in center field. Through all three prospect lists, it wasn't just the numbers that looked favorably upon Lewis. Keith Law said "Lewis earned raves from scouts before the draft for his makeup, including his aptitude for the game, and the Twins indicated that was part of why they were comfortable taking him with the first pick...If he stays at shortstop, he has superstar upside with his speed and on-base skills; even in center field, he wouldn't lose much value because he's likely to be such a good defender out there." The guys at MLB Pipeline echoed some of those same sentiments in saying, "Lewis has outstanding athleticism on both sides of the ball. When you combine that with his baseball IQ, it's easy to see a future star...watching his full-season encore should be a treat." Deciphering between the raw number in each list, and combining that feeling with the words attributed to the creators, it's safe to assume the Twins have something special on their hands. In observations of Lewis both first-hand and from afar, it's easily apparent to see this is a kid who gets it. All of the talent in the world is there, and it's paired with a strong support system as well as an advanced level of maturity. Minnesota is still at least a couple of years off from seeing the end result at the highest level, but there's no reason to stop dreaming about how good it will look. Not all first round picks are the same, and even at the first overall pick a slam dunk is hardly the expectation. Early indications on the field suggest that Royce Lewis is acclimating just fine, and from the outsiders the compile prospect lists, national media is already on notice. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz