Ted Schwerzler

For some reason, I emailed Seth and didn't catch that. Definitely don't have the Twins missing the playoffs at 91 wins. Should've said 2nd Wild Card (just behind Boston)

We've made it, it's finally here, the last day without meaningful baseball for the next six months has arrived. On March 29th, the Minnesota Twins will kick off the 2018 Major League Baseball season with Jake Odorizzi toeing the rubber against Dylan Bundy and the Baltimore Orioles. Having offered some opinions on the league-wide awards, I figured now would be a good time to dive into my predictions for the hometown club. Going into the year, expectations are relatively high for Paul Molitor's group. They're coming off a Postseason berth and have the advantage of playing in a weak division. Although the gap may not yet have been closed on the Cleveland Indians, there's no argument that it hasn't been made substantially smaller (at least on paper). If the Twins are going to make noise in the Central, American League, and across Major League Baseball as a whole this year, these are the guys who will be a big part of the process. Team MVP- Miguel Sano Despite being the reigning MVP, and entering a contract year, I think Sano overtakes Brian Dozier. Coming off an offseason that saw plenty of ups and downs, the third basemen appears all system go. There's no suspension looming, and the rod inserted into his leg doesn't appear to be holding him back in the slightest. Although the numbers don't mean much, Sano turned in an impressive spring, and they bat is absolutely going to play. I'd bet heavily on this being the first 30 home run season of his career, and pushing towards 50 is hardly out of the question if he can stay healthy. Twins fans have been waiting for his emergence since being a teenager, and Miguel Sano is finally ready to explode. Pitcher of the Year- Jake Odorizzi A season ago, Orodizzi posted the worst ERA of his career, was above 5.00 FIP for the first time, and walked a career worst 3.8 batters per nine. Why in the world would he be the best Twins pitcher at 28 years old? Well, I think there's plenty to be made of the back injury that he pitched through for the bulk of the season. Odorizzi isn't going to get much of a defensive boost as he already played in front of a good one with the Rays. I do believe he has middle-of-the-rotation stuff however, and the floor is very high with him. Jose Berrios has the ability to be a better pitcher than Odorizzi, but there's a decent level of volatility there as well. Rookie of the Year- Mitch Garver After finally making his debut in September 2017, I believed that Mitch Garver was deserving of a promotion much earlier. He absolutely raked at Triple-A Rochester, and it's his bat that brings intrigue behind the dish. Pairing with Jason Castro, Paul Molitor (won't but) should platoon his two backstops. Garver can dominate left-handed pitching, and he's more than capable behind the plate. He'll throw out his fair share of would be base stealers, and I'd expect him to be a bright spot for Minnesota. Deviating away from the veteran backstop that offers little in terms of offensive upside, Garver has the talent to be a true threat on his own. Most Improved- Max Kepler Last season saw the emergence of Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and even Jorge Polanco down the stretch. Miguel Sano has been a known commodity for a bit, even if I believe there's more in the tank. This season though, I think we see Max Kepler really begin to come into his own. For a while I've been of the belief that Kepler could be cut from a similar cloth as Christian Yelich. A good defender with adequate speed that has a real ability at the plate. Thus far Kepler has struggled with lefties, and he's yet to really set himself in the batters box. Hitting the 20 home run plateau for the first time is a good bet, and it's really only the tip of his offensive ice berg. For more from Off the Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Back on March 10th, I made some tweaks to my initial Minnesota Twins roster project and dubbed it 2.0. Looking back at that entry, it seems near perfect to me, but there's been a few minor tweaks since that point. With Opening Day happening this week, I figured it a good time to put everything down in pen and make a final suggestion as to what Paul Molitor has available in Baltimore. Keeping with the previous theme, I'll include the players from roster projection 2.0 and simply strike-through the names no longer expected to make the club. Minnesota has an exhibition with Washington in D.C. on Tuesday the 27th, and then the games count. Here's who I expect them to open 2018 with: Infielders (9) Jason Castro C Mitch Garver C Ehire Adrianza Util Brian Dozier 2B Eduardo Escobar Util Joe Mauer 1B Jorge Polanco SS Eduardo Escobar SS Miguel Sano 3B Logan Morrison 1B This group should have remained the same, but Jorge Polanco failed a PED test and will miss the first 80 games of the season. I don't know that I trust Escobar's glove at short, but hopefully the bat plays with some of that 2017 pop. I do think Polanco's second half surge was more indicative of what he can be capable of producing, so not having that upper level talent will hurt. In the end, Minnesota could end up feeling the loss of Jorge most should the make another appearance in the Postseason. Outfielders (5) Byron Buxton CF Robbie Grossman LF/RF Max Kepler RF Eddie Rosario LF Zack Granite OF There's no losses in this group, but Zack Granite finds himself as an addition. With the removal of Polanco from the 25 man, an additional bench spot opens up. Ideally, I wouldn't pair Granite and Grossman together. Minnesota is left without a true bat on the bench, could use some right-handed flexibility, and Zack is the far superior option when it comes to defense and pinch-running. There's been few waiver wire names of any intrigue, and while that could change, the Twins would need to add from outside if someone is going to unseat Grossman. Pitchers (12) Jose Berrios SP Lance Lynn SP Jake Odorizzi SP Kyle Gibson SP Trevor Hildenberger RP Gabriel Moya RP Zach Duke RP Ryan Pressly RP Addison Reed RP Fernando Rodney RP Taylor Rogers RP Tyler Kinley RP Phil Hughes RP Pegging Kinley for a pen sport over Tyler Duffey back in early March turned out to be solid foresight. The Rule 5 draftee is a hard thrower, and Duffey had struggled mightily this spring. He'll head to Triple-A and gives Minnesota a known commodity in a relief or spot start option should they need one early on. The lone change here comes in the form of Phil Hughes. Although it hasn't been an awful spring, Hughes hasn't been particularly good either. The ball has left the yard plenty, and now he conveniently has an oblique strain. Starting the season on the DL seems to be a good bet, and the Twins can slowplay any decision as to whether or not he still belongs in their future plans. Gabriel Moya found himself in jeopardy of being squeezed due to options, but should now round out the pen even with Kinley in the mix. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I don't think you can suggest that 40 G in 2017, and a handful of ABs this spring rule out Granite but then conversely include LaMarre. He has next to no track record of success as a minor leaguer, and has lit it up across 39 spring ABs. Ideally, the Twins go find a RH bat somewhere, but if that isn't reality, Grossman and Granite have to be the option.

The Minnesota Twins recently broke camp down in Fort Myers and have since headed to Washington, D.C. to play their last exhibition game of 2018. With the Nationals lined up as the last action before heading to Baltimore, Paul Molitor will have to soon set his 25 man roster in stone. Given that the lineup is all but a guarantee, the bench is really the only area of intrigue. Right now, there's two givens off the bench for the Twins. Both Ehire Adrianza and Mitch Garver are locked in. The former is a slick fielding shortstop, that has real questions with the bat. His .707 OPS across 70 games with the Twins last year was a career high, but it was also his first true big league opportunity. Without any real power, Adrianza keeping his OBP around the .324 mark of a year ago would be a nice tough. The latter is a former Minor League Player of the Year, and has plenty of thump at the dish. In 2017, Garver posted a .928 OPS at Triple-A, which followed up on a .764 OPS split between two levels in 2016. He has home run power and provides a nice platoon option from the right side with Jason Castro. From there, things get more uncertain for both the available options and Paul Molitor. The safest bet would be to suggest both Robbie Grossman and Zack Granite are penciled in. Despite reclaiming Kennys Vargas off waivers from the Cincinnati Reds, the plan appears to again be an attempt at pushing him to Triple-A unclaimed. Ryan LaMarre has been nothing short of a superstar for Minnesota this spring, but the reality is 43 exhibition plate appearances shouldn't outweigh a 2-37 big league sample size bolstered by a career .719 OPS in the minors. So, looking back at Granite and Grossman, the Twins have both a decision and an opportunity. Should both of those players make the club, Minnesota would have a bench of two switch hitters, a lefty, and a righty. Given a lefty heavy lineup, and two of them being corner outfielders, an area of opportunity would come in the form of a right-handed bat that can provide some thump from the corners. Both Grossman and Granite making the club seems like an odd fit to me. Neither of them profile as hitters first, and that leaves Molitor pretty short handed when looking for something to happen in the late innings. Grossman's calling card has been his on-base prowess, but it dipped from .386 in 2016 to .361 a season ago. The last two years he's gone .696 and .994 respectively vs RHP when it comes to OPS. If the Twins believe the 2016 number is more reflective of his ability, then it makes sense to deploy him as the right-handed bat. If there's uncertainty there though, Grossman is a well-below average outfielder, that has average power, and provides no real baserunning asset. Obviously the biggest question in going with Granite is in relation to his health. After making a diving catch and coming up with a shoulder contusion, his status is currently uncertain. If he's able to go however, he does provide the Twins with a different skillset. As a speedster capable of playing all three outfield spots, he's a plus-plus defender, and that speed also plays on the basepaths. He'd be valuable as a late inning pinch-runner and has stolen plenty of bases during his professional career. Despite an .867 OPS in 2017 at Triple-A, Granite is more of an on-base guy as well. A strong average is probably going to be his calling card as opposed to a high slugging percentage. The safest and most expected route for Minnesota to traverse is likely to take both Grossman and Granite with them on the 25 man roster. That plan doesn't rock the boat, and represents the least amount of risk. Should Derek Falvey and Thad Levine be able to find someone either through trade or on the waiver wire, there's an opportunity to be had however. Replacing Grossman with a right-handed bat would allow Molitor to still have a defensive replacement and pinch-runner in the form of Granite, and the Twins would have a true hitting threat at their disposal. Finding the right player to fill that role remains to be seen, but there's no doubt that the 25th man in Minnesota leaves a bit to be desired. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Being excited about a player's availability is a far cry from celebrating someone being deemed not guilty of sexual abuse.

I don't disagree. The "one spot" was in relation to the pen. It's Moya or Kinley's to grab. I do think there's some steam to Minnesota plucking someone off of waivers yet. Grossman could also be the odd man out in that scenario.

I feel as though if the Rangers are giving up on Profar, they see him as cooked. Probably not a great sign. If Minnesota did give a guy like that a look though, it wouldn't be at the detriment to a pen arm.

A helpful reminder...In situations like this, there are no winners or losers, just conclusions. Celebrating or defaming either party is not productive and only looks poor for yourself. With that said, I look forward to hopefully seeing a full season's worth of contributions from Sano.

As Erick Aybar was officially released today, the large remaining position battle is in the bullpen. After being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, Tyler Kinley finds himself competing with Gabriel Moya for one last relief job. The hard thrower from the Marlins organization has had a good spring, while Moya will get another opportunity to stake his claim earning the start on Saturday.Tyler Duffey was recently optioned to Triple-A, and the opportunity for Moya to start against the Orioles presented itself. After making his debut in 2017, Moya is looking to cement himself as a fixture in the Twins future bullpen plans. With a quirky setup and delivery, he's got plenty of intrigue, but there's more talent there than just the optics. It's be pretty hard to argue that Gabriel Moya hasn't earned a spot this spring. Across 10.0 IP Moya has 10 strikeouts and a glowing 0.90 ERA. He was nothing short of exceptional on the farm a year ago and posted a 0.77 ERA split between two Double-A teams. Despite being a strikeout machine with strong walk numbers, the velocity isn't anything to write home about. In his brief time with Minnesota last year, he averaged just 91.1 mph on his fastball. Deception, command, and placement seem to be more of his blueprint to get the job done. Regarding the competition, Tyler Kinley likely couldn't be more opposite than Moya. A hard thrower that can push it into the upper-90s, he too is a strikeout pitcher but has had plenty of issues with command. Across his 10.0 IP for Minnesota this spring, he's registered 11 strikeouts but they come with seven walks. The 4.50 ERA is inflated due to two outings in which he allowed earned runs, and one of which was a 47-pitch endeavor across two innings. In short, Minnesota has to have liked what they've seen here as well. When it comes down to it, the reality of flexibility is almost certain to play a factor. Kinley not making the club would force the Twins to either work out a trade or offer him back to the Miami Marlins (though they haven't been in the business of wanting players this offseason). On the flip side, Moya has options remaining, and can be sent down to the farm with no ill-effects whatsoever. It's hard to see the Twins now deciding to cut bait with Kinley after letting the string play out this far. Duffey being optioned suggested a relative shift in thinking and provided a bit of clarity. Although it's still possible Moya is lights out during his final audition, I'd imagine there's a near insurmountable hill to climb for the former Diamondbacks prospect. When asking Molitor about the situation regarding Moya and Kinley following today's game, he suggested that tomorrow's game having both arms scheduled doesn't reflect a fate-determining moment. "We've been discussing how it's going to shape up as an organization for a while now. We are in a position where we can get another day out of it. Whether that changes where we are or not, I don't expect it to be a do or die. Just trying to see how it all fits together and what look you want to have." Looking back at my second 25-man roster projection from March 10, it looks to be spot on outside of Jorge Polanco's departure. With Zack Granite expected to get that roster spot, it's probably a good bet to assume the club will at least break camp with their Rule 5 selection still in tow. Click here to view the article

There's a good deal of conservative numbers, which has me leaning over on most as well. The Twins probably over performed just a bit last year though, and that's where numbers see regression coming. I just don't know how hard it can hit with all of their additions.

The Minnesota Twins come into the 2018 Major League Baseball season with high expectations. After making an appearance in the Wild Card game a season ago, Paul Molitor's club is expected to make some waves this year. Following success, this club isn't going to sneak up on anyone, and Vegas seems to be included among that bunch. After posting a betting primer for the 2017 season, a follow up only made sense. Last year however, offshore online bookmaker Bovada had a much lesser offering when it came to available Twins bets. Given their success a season ago, the opening options include a whopping 14 possibilities this season. Keeping in line with the 2017 blueprint, here's the best six future bets for Minnesota this year, and a confidence rating for each. Brian Dozier O/U 30.5 HRs A season ago, the number was 29.5 and Minnesota's second basemen was coming off a 42 long ball effort. In line for some regression, the under seemed feasible, even if it was going to take a dip of 13 home runs. Instead, Dozier garnered even more MVP votes, launched 34 long balls, and picked up his first Gold Glove (in part as a reflection of his offensive prowess). Going into a contract year with plenty at stake, it's hard for an argument to be made in favor of a significant slide. Over the past few seasons, Dozier has established himself as arguably the best second basemen in the game not named Jose Altuve. The power is real, and the bat has been more than productive. If this number was closer to the 34 from a season ago, I'd have a bit more hesitancy. ZiPS sees a 31 homer effort, and I find that to be a solid baseline. Take the over. Over 30.5 HRs 3* Eddie Rosario O/U 24.5 HRs In the minor leagues, Rosario was always carried by his bat. After not working out as a middle infielder, he quickly shifted to the corner outfield and became somewhat of a hybrid. Not the slow and hulking type, he was more than capable of driving a ball and watching it sail over the fence. In 2017, 27 long balls were registered to his name and it came as somewhat of a surprise. With a .268 AVG and .735 OPS to his name over his first two big league seasons, the .290 AVG and .836 OPS was rather uncharacteristic. Despite having pretty static contact percentages and fly ball numbers, it was a 16.4% HR/FB rate that jumped off the page. It's probably a decent bet that the number settles in closer to 20 this season, and so that suggests we take the under. Under 24.5 HRs 2* Fernando Rodney O/U 25.5 SVs Like wins, saves are a silly stat and extremely volatile. That being said, there seems to be some value here for the Twins closer. As a full time closer, Rodney has made 25 saves look like an easy benchmark to clear. He's coming off a 39 save performance with Arizona last year and even posted 25 in a season split between two teams in 2016. It's definitely fair to note that Rodney is an experience, but his blueprint forever has been effectively wild. While there's walks sprinkled in, he's still throwing gas and getting batters out on his own. By the end of the year, a different closer may emerge for Minnesota, but I'd imagine Rodney hangs onto the role longer than this line suggests. Minnesota should generate no less than 40 saves in 2018, and I'd take Rodney to account for 3/4 of them. Over 25.5 SVs 4* Jose Berrios O/U 12 Ws Against better judgment, making a play on wins here seems to be worthwhile. In 2017, it was Ervin Santana a season ago with a 10.5 number and I thought the under seemed like a decent bet. He blitzed by that number and was Minnesota's best starter for a decent portion of the year. In 2018, Berrios will get his first crack at starting the year with the Twins, and he should push towards 200 innings. Last year, 145 innings were turned into 14 wins for a squad that won 85 games. Again, while wins are a volatile stat, there seems to be some value here. A larger opportunity should only bolster Berrios' chances, and I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he settles in as a true top-of-the-rotation starter in 2018. ZiPS has him pegged for 14 wins, and I'd take that as the low water mark. Over 12 Ws 3* Logan Morrison O/U 25.5 HRs One of the more surprising offseason acquisitions for the Twins was the addition of left-handed slugger Logan Morrison. Surprising is used only in the sense that his addition seemed to be a nice bonus piece for Derek Falvey. Nabbed on a team friendly deal, and coming off a 38 HR power showing, Paul Molitor's DH spot immediately got a nice boost. Now the 38 long balls represented a significant career high, but it also came with a change in philosophy intended to put the ball in the air. Regression seems a fair argument given the significant spike in production, but the new process should continue to yield more positive results. In my mind, seeing Morrison dip should still end up with a number in the high 20's. This is yet another over for me. Over 25.5 HRs 2* Minnesota Twins O/U 82.5 Ws A season ago, Molitor's club rebounded to the tune of 85 wins. Following up the disastrous 2016 with that effort only highlights to relative unpredictability of youth. Minnesota watched the maturation of players like Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario carry them at different parts of the season. Fast-forward to 2018, and the club has no real losses to speak of while adding significant pitching and hitting talent. The AL Central should be a small dumpster fire at the bottom, and the Cleveland Indians stoop pat and allowed Minnesota to close some of that gap. It's fair to argue that Molitor's club played above their true talent level a season ago, and that they were more of a .500 team. Believing that should suggest a floor of 81 wins for the current year however, and that seems like a bare minimum. Before the addition of Lance Lynn, this group looked like an 87 or 88 win team to me, and now I'd be far from shocked to see them grab 90. Over 82.5 Ws 5* For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

A season ago, the Minnesota Twins brought in James Rowson as their hitting coach. Following the dismissal of Tom Brunansky, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine handpicked a candidate of a lesser known name. WIth what he had done with some of the hitter in the Yankees organization however, there was excitement regarding potential results. Fast forward a year, and the growth with some young Twins hitters was incredible. In 2018, Minnesota will be looking for more of the same from their new pitching coach, Garvin Alston. The Twins are coming off a 2017 that saw records in starting pitchers used (16), and arms as a whole (36). Knowing this club is coming into 2018 with high expectations and again focused on the Postseason, getting more consistent results on the mound is a must. In that regard, there's no coach more integral to Minnesota taking the next step forward than Alston. A pitcher for the Colorado Rockies during his brief MLB career, Alston has spent almost the entirety of his coaching life with the Oakland Athletics. He was twice a minor league pitching coach, while serving as a pitching coordinator in 2015. During the 2016 season, worked as the bullpen coach for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and then he headed back to the Bay Area to serve in the same capacity for the A's a season ago. Much like Rowson was able to help players like Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco foster success down the stretch a season ago, Alston will be tasked with growth in 2018. Kyle Gibson may be the area for greatest success, but there should be no shortage of impressionable arms looking to reach the next level. Among all Twins starters, no one is looking to replicate their second half as much as Gibson is. The 3.57 ERA across his final 12 starts (and 2.92 ERA across the final 8) would position him as a treue middle-of-the-rotation arm. After scuffling hard out of the gate, and looking like a non-tender candidate halfway through 2017, Gibby officially turned it around. With the offseason in his rear view mirror, and a solid spring training under his belt, Gibson will need to replicate his late season efforts in hopes of bolstering the Twins chances. It's not just veteran arms Alston will be tasked with maximizing though, in fact the vast majority aren't veteran arms. Jose Berrios looked the part of a good starter last year, but there's real star potential there and he'll be trying to harness that on an every start basis. Eventually pitchers like Felix Jorge, Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, and Zack Littell will find their way onto the Target Field mound. Keeping command in focus and not allowing the moment to be too big, Alston will be forced to challenge the young arms while also keeping them in check. For Minnesota, a retooling of the starting rotation was needed, and pitchers like Lance Lynn and Jake Odorizzi fall more under the notion of tweaks rather than full-scale hand holding. The bullpen also was bolstered with reinforcements, and guys like Addison Reed and Fernando Rodney should be cut from a similar cloth as their veteran starting counterparts. In relief though, Garvin Alston will oversee a guy in Trevor Hildenberger who had a breakout 2017 and became one of Minnesota's best relievers. Through spring training thus far, Hildenberger has seen results anything but reflective of his 2017 exploits. A reminder that the slate is wiped clean and a 9.4 K/9 along with a 1.3 BB/9 came out of that arm a year ago will go a long ways to determine how the Twins handle late innings. Taylor Rogers will be expected to take a step forward, and eventually Jake Reed, Tyler Kinley, and any number of other arms could be called upon to get meaningful outs. While there's a good argument to be made that most managers misuse or at least under-utilize their bullpens, it will be on Alston and Molitor to find a blueprint that gets the most out of their club. The 46 year old pitching coach will need to dance between relating to players not much his junior, and a manager significantly his senior. Evaluation of a pitching coach is relatively difficult, and even more so in a small sample size situation. We may not know what Alston is capable of or has become for the Twins after 2018, but you can bet than a significant positive impact would go a long ways towards success. Seen as a pitching guru, Falvey tabbed Alston his guy, and giving him a staff that has a little bit of everything should provide plenty of opportunity to grow. Minnesota needs pitching to become a strength, and Alston pioneering that movement would be massive. For more from Off The Baggy click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Aybar at 34 isn't really "cooked" as he's never had much of a ceiling. With a strong prospect like Gordon, you don't just turn to them because they might be better than the alternative, there should be a long game there.

Polanco had a .313 OBP in 2017 and was likely going to bat in the middle half of the lineup. More of a contact run producer than table setter.

Polanco's absense definitely hurts depth more than I think it does the starting lineup. Having to truly rely on Aybar, Ehire, or Escobar is suboptimal. I remain of the belief that Sano doesn't miss much time however.

The Minnesota Twins had made it through 24 days of their spring training game schedule. Although Ervin Santana needed surgery, the timeline looked favorable and the organization had seen no other hiccups. Free agents were being amassed in droves, and the 2017 Wild Card team looked like it was eyeing an opportunity to close the gap in the AL Central. Then it happened; March 18th came.If St. Patrick's Day is about luck, the day following saw Minnesota have next to none. Ervin Santana reportedly cannot yet make a fist, let alone grip a baseball. That reality puts a May 1 return to the mound in serious jeopardy. The bigger bomb came in the early evening however, as starting shortstop Jorge Polanco was popped with an 80-game suspension after testing positive for PEDs. When looking at the Twins 2018 outlook, it's unquestionably the loss of Polanco that impacts the club most. Despite suggesting he unknowingly ingested the banned substance Stanozolol (which coincidentally was the PED of choice for Santana back in 2015), the reality is he made a poor judgment in failing to fact check what a trainer in the Dominican may have handed him. Ideally there would've been a greater level of ownership, removing the "unknowingly" caveat, but he's decided to bypass an appeal and serve the suspension immediately. For the Twins and Paul Molitor, the question becomes where the club turns from here. As I profiled just last week, Polanco was set to become the first shortstop since Pedro Florimon (13/14) to start back-to-back Opening Days for Minnesota (and just the second since Cristian Guzman in 2004). Now, Molitor will likely turn the reins over to Eduardo Escobar, who last owned the job during the 2016 season. Escobar has played a solid utility role for the Minnesota Twins during his tenure following the swap that brought him over from the Chicago White Sox. The 1.6 fWAR a season ago was a nice rebound from the -0.6 fWAR he posted in 2016. The problem however, is that the negative number came with Escobar assuming the role of everyday shortstop. Across 579 innings at short in 2016, Escobar was worth -7 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved). Stretched out to a full season's worth of games (579 innings accounted for 66 starts), Escobar would be staring at a -17 DRS. Dating back to 2002 (where Fangraphs data begins), only 16 shortstops have posted a worse DRS over a full season. In fact, a -18 DRS was posted in 2012 by a 38-year-old Derek Jeter, just to provide a visual for what that may look like. In short, it's not much of a surprise why the Twins played Escobar at short in just 16 games a year ago, even with the emergence of Polanco. For Eduardo, his calling card with Minnesota has been and will continue to be his bat. His positional flexibility is relative, given that he can play many, but is below average (-5 DRS in 600+ innings at 3B in 2017) at all of them. Coming off a career best .758 OPS with 21 homers, it's hard not to like the idea of his bat getting more reps. What both Molitor and the front office will need to evaluate is whether or not the negative cost in the field is outweighed by the boost his bat brings. If not for Escobar, then Minnesota currently has three options. First would be secondary utility man, Ehire Adrianza. Profiled as relatively opposite to Escobar, Adrianza is slick with the glove and leaves something to be desired at the dish. Logging just over 200 innings at short for Minnesota last year, Adrianza was worth 1 DRS. His .707 OPS was a career best, and a massive jump from the .598 OPS he'd compiled across his first 145 career games. Having been used out of position some since joining Minnesota, Adrianza looked disinterested or lost at times while playing left field or even third base. Defensively, shortstop is his home, but his bat must prove worthy of consistent starts. Brought in as Miguel Sano insurance, veteran Erick Aybar is now all but guaranteed a 40-man roster spot with Minnesota. Barring a Sano suspension or injury to start the year, Aybar likely would've been looking for a new team. At 34 years old, Aybar is hardly a spring chicken, and he cuts the duo above somewhere down the middle. A .685 career OPS is reflective of a guy that's basically all average, with little boost from on-base or slugging skills. Unfortunately for him, 2015 is the last time his average was at .270 or above, and would need to be a relative baseline for acceptable production. With the glove, he's played at least 790 innings at short every season since 2009, but he's been no better than -3 DRS since 2012. Not the abomination Escobar is, but calling him slick with the glove would be a stretch as well. Rounding out the options for the Twins is a name that's not currently present. Nick Gordon isn't ready to fill in at the big league level on an every day basis yet (and there's valid concerns about him at SS anyway), and both Royce Lewis and Wander Javier are too far away. The "not currently present" designation would also need to apply to a player outside of the organization. Veteran J.J. Hardy is currently a free agent still (though he's arguably a worse option than any of the internal trio), and the trade market has any number of fits. For Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to explore that path however, it'd likely be a stopgap player with upside than some sort of drastic move that changes future projections. At the end of the day, my hope is that the Twins play it safe here. A lot of work has been done to increase the overall ability of the roster this season, and wavering too far on one side or the other could throw off a lineup or defense with an immense amount of talent. Escobar is a risk at a vital position, while Adrianza has all the makings of a rally killer. Start Erick Aybar, know what you've got, and inject both the utility men on a semi-regular basis. Escobar has thrived in that role before, and Adrianza was productive enough a year ago. It's not at all flashy, but if I'm Molitor, Aybar gives you the least opportunity to be exposed. Click here to view the article

Much of the talk leading up to the 2018 Major League Baseball season regarding the Minnesota Twins has focused around potential breakout season for players like Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, or even Jorge Polanco. Despite making headlines for some negative reasons this offseason, Miguel Sano may actually be the one deserving of the biggest breakthrough talk. While he’s coming off an All-Star appearance, the numbers suggest we may have not seen anything yet.Yes, Miguel Sano nearly won the Rookie of the Year award (finishing third) back in 2015). Yes, he’s hit at least 18 home runs in each of his three big league seasons. Yes, Sano’s 28 long balls a year ago were a career high. Taking a look at virtually any production-based stat for Sano should leave you impressed this early on in the soon-to-be 25 year-old’s career. What suggests that we may not have seen anything close to what’s available is just how seldom the slugger has been in the lineup. Over the past two seasons, Sano has played just 116 and 114 games for Minnesota. Having dealt with injuries at different points through his big league career, the Twins tender of the hot corner has yet to reach anything close to a full 162 game production level. While it may be difficult to expect a man that large to not break down over such a haul that is MLB’s regular season, it’s also not unthinkable. Sano’s weight has been called into question plenty, and while I think there’s reason for concerns, to me it’s more about the reflection of his personal dedication. Still at such a young age, I think there’s plenty of reason to believe that seasons at near-max production still lie ahead. That’s where things get enticing for the Dominican native. Sano’s .859 OPS across 114 games a season ago didn’t quite match the .916 mark in the 80 game sample size that was his rookie year. Despite settling at a .264 average, Sano flirted with something between .280-.300 for a good bulk of the year. Sure strikeouts remain a problem, and he may lead the league over a full season, but his OBP (.352) is reflective of a guy who is able to downplay most of the negatives a trip back to the dugout is associated with. The slash line isn’t really where the numbers jump off the page though. Across the 114 games in 2017, Sano posted career bests in runs scored (75), hits (112), home runs (28) and RBI (77). Extrapolating that production over the course of a full season is pretty eye-opening. Per 162 games, the numbers equate to 107 runs scored, 159 hits, 40 homers, and 109 RBI. Getting that kind of production from the hot corner is something Minnesota hasn’t laid claim to since the days of Harmon Killebrew. In 2016, Brian Dozier eclipsed the 40 home run plateau and became the first Twins player to do so not named Harmon. At the time of his accomplishment, Dozier was a big league veteran and 29 years old. Sano could join the group as early as the 2018 season, and would be doing so while significantly younger, and really before his true prime. There’s a possibility that Miguel could face a suspension to start out 2018 (although it’s looking somewhat unlikely), and there’s reason to believe health may keep him out of more than a handful of contests. There’s also room in the equation for optimism, and while he won’t ever play a complete 162 games schedule, getting over the 150 mark would provide for some truly great numbers. 2018 doesn’t need to be a defining season for Sano, the best one of his career, or something of historic proportions. What I think we should be aware of however, is that as great as we’ve seen flashes thus far, they’ve been on a scale roughly equivalent to two-thirds of a season. If Sano can gain himself the ability to compete on a more frequent basis, it’s a good bet that truly great numbers will follow suit. Before there was Byron Buxton, there was Miguel Sano. Paul Molitor getting the most out of them at the highest level would no doubt equate to a pairing this organization hasn’t seen in quite some time. Click here to view the article

I’d bet pretty substantially that he doesn’t get suspended at all. Doubling down, a small wager on something like 15 games.

In 2017, Byron Buxton won what should be the first of many Gold Gloves. He also won a Platinum Glove (fan voted), and the Wilson Defensive Player of the Year award. In short, his efforts for the Twins in centerfield have quickly become noticed by a national audience. The speed, ball tacking, and spectacular plays are all just a bit more routing for the Georgia native. What's worth wondering is whether or not he's already the greatest defensive centerfielder of all time. Rather than dive into a debate across eras, I think it's safe to work under the assumption that the greatest current players would probably hold up working backwards. In short, Mike Trout would compare with Barry Bonds or Babe Ruth. In that sense, Buxton and his competition would hold up well in comparison with great defenders of yesteryear. For the purpose of this piece, there's only one other player that currently holds a candle to the Twins star. Needing no introduction, it's Tampa Bay Rays centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier. The bar to surpass for Buxton is the blueprint that the Rays defensive stalwart has already put forth. With an extra couple of years under his belt at the big league level, Kiermaier has two Gold Gloves and got edged by Byron for the first time in 2017. Moving outside of the awards though, it's the metrics that truly show how great Kevin really is. Over the course of his five year big-league career, Kiemaier has played over 1,000 innings just once. Having dealt with injuries, he's only surpassed the 110 games played plateau one time, and has been under 100 games played once as well. During the 2015 season he put up a nutty 42 DRS and 30.0 UZR along with a 24.2 RngR. Dating back to the inception of Fangraphs metrics in 2002, the next closest number is 33 DRS by the Mariners Franklin Gutierrez in 2009. Those two players are also the only ones to ever post a UZR in CF at 30.0 or above (Gutierrez was at 31.0 in 2009). To put it simply, Kiermaier's 2015 was a defensive campaign for the ages. What's important to note however, is that Kiermaier wasn't simply a flash in the pan or one-year-wonder. In 2016, he posted 25 DRS and a 12.3 UZR, and a season ago he totaled 22 DRS and 2.8 UZR. Given the sample size of those previous two campaigns coming in no less than 46 games shy of his 2015 output, the production only had room to rise. At nearly 28 years-old, Kiermaier should be well of from and decline, and he'll be pushing for the title of best defensive centerfielder for years to come. Turning our attention to the Twins star, there's a very obvious asset that really can't be taught: speed. In the newly developed spring speed leaderboard from MLB's Statcast, Buxton is the fastest runner in baseball clocking 30.2 ft/sec. He's trailed most closely by Cincinnati's Billy Hamilton (30.1 ft/s) and Kiermaier's 28.9 ft/s check in at 13th among centerfielders. That elite top end speed allows Buxton to cover both gaps, and very realistically, make up for any route deficiencies he may have. Being the Statcast darling that he is, you don't need to go far to find Buxton's name atop another leaderboard. Minnesota's man tops both the Catch Probability and Outs Above Average charts. In 2017, he was worth 25 outs above average, or better than every team in baseball aside from his own. No player, at any position, made more "4 Star" outs than Buxton's 26. His 89.7% conversion rate on plays deemed to have a 26-50% likelihood of an out is truly astounding. In summarizing his efforts, Statcast deemed that Buxton's expected catch percentage in 2017 was 87%. Instead, he posted a 93% mark and added unexpected outs 6% of the time. Unfortunately, Statcast's data only dates back to 2016, so comparing Kiermaier's exceptional 2015 in the same realms is not possible. From a Fangraphs perspective, Buxton has room to grow. Last season, his DRS total checked in at 24 with a 9.9 UZR and 12.6 RngR. If there's an area most easily picked apart in Buxton's defensive game, it's his arm. Buxton doesn't have a weak arm by any means, in fact he pitched at over 90 mph in high school. What he does lack at times from the outfield, is accuracy. Far too often in 2017, throws to bases were off line, and while the ball may have provided an opportunity for an out, the positioning was no longer there. The metrics seem to agree with those sentiments as well. Last season, Buxton's efforts were worth -2.4 (outfield arm runs above average). For comparison, Kiermaier's 2015 saw a 6.8 ARM rating. DRS is a metric that encapsulate's each piece of a defender's ability and displays a total defensive value. Posting a negative or lacking ARM tally will do no favors when calculating the overall production. What I think is easy to suggest is that baseball fans are currently watching two of the greatest defensive centerfielders to ever play the game. While Kiermaier would benefit by staying on the field more, Buxton has a workable avenue to increasing his own production, and the battle will be a fun one to watch for years to come. Byron has yet to match Kevin's 2015 by some advanced metrics, but others are quite clearly in awe of how much he brings to the game with his glove. It is on defensive merit alone that Buxton will be a yearly candidate for the All Star game in years to come. Should his bat display what it flashed down the stretch for the Twins, Minnesota has an MVP candidate waiting to happen, and a superstar in the making. At the end of the day, Twins fans should have plenty of fun watching their man go and get it. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Over the past 13 seasons, dating back to 2005, the Minnesota Twins have started 11 different players at shortstop on Opening Day. Through those years, only Pedro Florimon has been given the nod in back-to-back seasons (13-14), and Jason Bartlett is the only other player to appear twice (05 & 07). To put it simply, consistency at the shortstop position isn't something that the Minnesota Twins have had in over a decade. With Jorge Polanco settling in to change that notion, it might be time to give it some real thought. To know where the Twins may be going, we'll first take a look at where they've been. Before the revolving door got started in 2004, the last point of stability was none other than Cristian Guzman. From 1999 through 2004, the Dominican native started every Opening Day for Minnesota, and racked up 841 games played. A fixture in the Minnesota lineup, Guzman was a serviceable option that allowed speed to carry his game. At the dish, you could argue that Guzman was a relatively replaceable asset. Owning just a .685 OPS with Minnesota, and averaging just a .303 OBP over his six-year tenure, there was nothing that jumped off the stat page. Leading the league in triples three times, and stealing double-digit bases in five straight years, quickness was highly valued at a time in the game where advanced analytics had yet to break in. In the field, Guzman was as acceptable as it gets. Defensive data at Fangraphs only goes back to 2002, but over the three seasons accounted for, Guzman provided two at a net zero outcome. Both in 2002 and 2004, a total of 0 DRS was the result in over 1,200 innings. He displayed solid zone ratings, and above average range at the most demanding position in the infield however. In short, Guzman was the option for Minnesota because he did just enough to warrant the job, but also never really pushed the needle. As the game has evolved, shortstops are among the most premier players on the diamond. To have a guy with an OPS south of .700 and be worth nothing more than league average defensively, you'd be hard-pressed not to insert the Pedro Florimon's of the world as a replacement. Fortunately for Minnesota, looking at stability this time around provides something of a significant advancement in the form of Jorge Polanco. The former top-100 prospect will be entering his second full season as the Twins everyday shortstop. He's coming off a .723 OPS and a -1 DRS across 1,119 innings played. The sample size compiled thus far is incredibly small, but given a brief taste in 2016, we can quantify improvement. In the field across 69 games in 2016, Polanco owned a -8 DRS across 406 innings. With questions regarding his arm at short, the initial showing did nothing to dispel the notion that he wasn't fit to play anything but second base at the highest level. Displaying substantial improvements across the board, and a positive RngR factor last year though, Polanco put forth an effort reflective of lots of extra offseason work. Regarding Polanco, it's always been the bat that was expected to carry him. After bottoming out at a .572 OPS on August 4th last season, a corner was turned. Over his final 53 games, Polanco posted a .942 OPS that saw him launch 10 homers and pick up another 14 doubles. Everything from launch angle to pitch recognition was maximized, and the turnaround was more reflective of the player Minnesota expected to have coming out of their minor league system. Knowing baseball is a mental game, the loss of Polanco's grandfather likely weighed on him at points of the season. Widely reported as a father figure to the 24 year old, it's hardly unfathomable that performance would dip as his mind struggled to stay engaged. On the field, locking back in to a disciplined approach that produced career bests in SwStr% and chase rate no doubt aided the turnaround. Looking ahead, Polanco should be in a position where he can secure the shortstop role to the point that a challenger needs to wrangle it away from him. The revolving door has stopped spinning at this moment, and by the time Royce Lewis or Wander Javier are ready for the next step, Polanco should allow Minnesota an opportunity to make them earn it. It's not far off that an up-the-middle tandem of Polanco and Nick Gordon can be seen as reality, but there should be little question in regards to who's best suited at short among that duo. For any number of organizations across the big leagues, having answers on the mound, at short, and in center remain of the utmost importance. More often than not, the Twins have done well in center, and they've begun to right the ship on the mound. Polanco taking steps forward to own shortstop is a much-needed revelation, and it's one that he's only begun to own into. Obviously the sustainability of a .900+ OPS isn't great, but a full season of Polanco contributing with both the bat and the glove seems to be more expectation than hope at this point. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz