Ted Schwerzler

The date is November 2, 2016 and the Chicago Cubs have just won their first World Series since 1908. In an 8-7 victory over the AL Central Cleveland Indians, Joe Maddon's club broke the curse and did the unthinkable. Immediately following that game, I began to wonder if the Northsiders shouldn't explore trading one of their best hitters, Kyle Schwarber. Fast forward to January 4, 2018 and I'm having those same thoughts regarding the Twins' Miguel Sano.In 2016, Schwarber played a whopping two games for the Cubbies. Coming back from injury, he was handed five plate appearances to round out the regular season. Turning in zero hits, he was put on the shelf as somewhat of a secret weapon. Despite not playing in any other rounds of the postseason, Joe Madden turned him loose in the World Series. Across five games and 17 at-bats, Schwarber posted a .412/.500/.471 slash line in the Fall Classic. As the DH for over half the series (thanks to the American League hosting and having the sensible rule), Schwarber was able to make an impact on the series that was felt throughout the country. While at that moment, his value was at it's peak over his short time in the big leagues, it wasn't unsubstantiated either. A year prior, in his rookie season, Schwarber posted an .842 OPS for the Cubs. While not hitting for a glowing average, he showed he could get on base, and the power would play through his bat. Sixteen homers in his first 69 big league games was something to write home about, and Chicago obviously had something, even if it wasn't a catcher. Despite there being a hangover of excitement from the World Series, it immediately hit me that Schwarber wouldn't be best suited for any role he could play with the Cubs. Void of the designated hitter, Chicago would have to play him in the outfield, a position in which he posted a -9 DRS a season ago. Maximizing on his immediate success, and knowing Chicago was set to be needing pitching, it stood to reason that there was an opportunity. Obviously we know how that story played out. Schwarber is still a Cub, and Chicago will need some big pitching performances to regain their elite status atop the National League in 2018. With a .782 OPS a year ago, Schwarber has been documented as being in "the best shape of his life" this offseason due to a strenuous workout regimen. Although he still looks every bit an American League DH to me, that ship has probably sailed for the time being. Tying in Miguel Sano, it's been widely reported that his name has been floated in trade talks. There's no denying Sano is a game changing player for the Minnesota Twins. Coming off an All-Star appearance, and a trajectory that had him on pace for the team MVP through the better part of the year, Sano is one of the best young players in baseball. Despite having a rod inserted into his shin, I think the bigger question is what does he project as going forward? Finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting following the 2015 season, Minnesota's slugging third basemen had a .916 OPS to hang his hat on. Through his first 310 big league games, he's already clubbed 71 homers, and his career .348 OBP is a clear message that you should stop worrying about his strikeouts. On paper, everything that Miguel Sano is lines up to a perennial all-star, and a game changing player for an organization (namely the Twins). What isn't determined on paper however, is what the future holds. A year ago, Sano posted a -5 DRS in just shy of 700 innings at the hot corner. Among qualified third basemen, that would've been 16th, ahead of only Mike Moustakas (-8), Jake Lamb (-13) and Nick Castellanos (-14). The caveat to those numbers, is that each of them played at least 1,090 innings in the field. Although Sano wasn't an abomination at third last year, the reality is that he's limited with his range, and his arm has to make up for a significant amount of what he lacks. Whether health or physical stature remains intact going forward, both the eye test and the analytics suggest that there's little room for error before a position change comes knocking. That ends up leading us to this point: Is a first base or designated hitting version of Sano worth moving away from in trade for an impact starter in an organization starving for them? That question is the one that both Thad Levine and Derek Falvey will have to answer. I do believe that Miguel Sano has a significant impactful big league career ahead of him. He's just 24 years old, has elite hard-hit rates, and posted the fifth best HR/FB (27.5%) rate in baseball a year ago. He's the first player in a long time who appears to be able to threaten Harmon Killebrew's records with Minnesota, and that's something to salivate over. In a vacuum, I'd argue that a power hitting corner infielder (or DH) is more replaceable than a front-line starter. By that measure, dealing Sano for something of fair market value is a proposition that's hard to ignore. My gut says that the Twins hold off making a move however, and the hope would be that years from now, we can look back and call it the right one. I'm not sure that there's any denying the Twins have a Kyle Schwarber opportunity on their hands however, and that the execution of a decision either way could be franchise altering. Click here to view the article

^^^^ This is a good comment. Well done Mr. Forks! Also, I think the Twins are hoping to see enough in Kinley to warrant a trade. I can't imagine him making the 25 man either.

As things stand, the Minnesota Twins have made two moves regarding their bullpen this offseason. In signing both Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke to one-year deals, they bring in proven veterans with skills in all the right places for the Twins. It seems Derek Falvey and Thad Levine sent a message in their relief acquisitions, and looking back to 2017, it is one that should be well received. While teams have long since began venturing down the path of super bullpens, some of them go about it differently. At their peak, the Kansas City Royals seemed to do it more organically, while the Cleveland Indians moved some pieces around, and the current Colorado Rockies just threw money at everyone with a pulse. The idea that a start can be shortened through a strong bullpen is a good one, but it isn't a band-aid that can be applied to every organization. For Minnesota, the reality is that both the starting pitching and relief staff needed work. With the cost of acquiring a starter being what it is, spending top dollar on a minimal impact role like a reliever is a tough ask. Instead, the Twins got creative by targeting high strikeout guys with strong track records. On top of that, they did so without much potential for negative repercussions considering the length and terms of each deal. Where this story starts though, is at the beginning. Looking back to 2017, it's hard not to see Paul Molitor and his staff in a much better place when having to deploy relief help. There's no arguing that the Twins don't have an elite pen (or maybe even an above average one), but much improved is something they should have in spades. On Opening Day of 2017, the Twins trotted Tyler Duffey, Michael Tonkin, Justin Haley, Ryan Pressly, Matt Belisle, Brandon Kintzler, Craig Breslow, and Taylor Rogers out to the bullpen. Of that group, only three remain, and each of them should find a spot in the 2018 pen from the jump. Assuming Minnesota goes with seven relievers (after beginning with eight a year ago), I'd imagine the group consists of: Duffey, Rogers, Pressly, Trevor Hildenberger, Zach Duke, Alan Busenitz, and Fernando Rodney. Looking at the holdovers, you have two guys that have the ability to pitch in high leverage. While Pressly is the velocity guy, Duffey worked as a closer in college. Both can put the ball past opposing hitters, and looking for K/9 rates above 8.0 should be a safe assumption. In Rogers, Molitor gets a guy that was tested in his second year, and showed he can get batters out on both sides of the plate. Moving more towards the middle innings, he can act more as the second lefty, and be somewhat of a specialist. In categorizing the additions, the Twins have a lot of new weapons at their disposal. Despite his age, Rodney is still pumping fastballs in the upper 90's. Yes he walks batters, but over the course of a full season, it's hard not to see him being an asset. Duke returned from Tommy John in record time, and the biggest takeaway from 2017 for him was health. He's a year removed from a 10.0 K/9 with the bulk of the season spent in the AL Central. Hildenberger and Busenitz both stepped in huge down the stretch for Minnesota a season ago. The former looked the part of a potential closer, while the latter is another velocity arm (95.8mph) that should see the strikeouts rise. Given that this group is relatively established, and there's a bit more depth behind them, the Twins can feel a bit more at ease about their current positioning. We've been waiting on top relief arms to surface for some time, but names like Hildenberger, Busenitz, and John Curtiss simply stepped up first. Should J.T. Chargois, Tyler Jay, and Jake Reed see their time come in 2018, the overall water level for the relief corps will only continue to rise. At the end of the day, the Twins bullpen isn't going to wow anyone on paper. For fans who've followed the organization however, it looks like one of the better groups in quite some time, and one that speaks to a certain level of sustainability. It took some time to get away from the soft tossing aspect in relief, but that doesn't appear to be the plan of action for anyone (save for Duke) who will enter the field from behind the wall. It may all blow up when the action actually starts, but there's reason for optimism with the current collection to be sure. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I still think Buxton ends up being more of a gap/power hitter than a guy that hits for average. As long as he drives his OBP up a bit, that's just fine with me. Sano is always going to have his detractors, and while HR guys are great, having them be an offensive cornerstone can prove volatile as well. Think to me, he's more like the icing on the cake rather than the backbone of the lineup.

I imagine a suspension will be coming, but Sano missed time last year and put up similar numbers. That said, I think Escobar has carved out a good deal of playing time for himself regardless.

Today, Dan Szymborski released the 2018 Minnesota Twins ZiPS projections via Fangraphs. If you aren't familiar with ZiPS, they are simply a projection system (similar to Steamer, KATOH, PECOTA, etc) that attempt to look at potential production for an upcoming season. Projection systems don't account for situations in real time, and are using statistical analysis to draw future conclusions. After appearing in the Wild Card game seemingly out of nowhere, the 2018 Twins have some heightened expectations. With warts on the starting rotation and in the bullpen, Minnesota has to have each area be better in order to compete with other foes in the American League. With both the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels adding big time this winter, the Wild Card almost certainly isn't going to welcome a sub 90-win squad this Postseason. Rather than dive deeply into the bulk of the projections themselves, I'd like to point out a few key areas of note, as well as adding some commentary. Again, you can find the full 2018 Twins ZiPS projections here. Anyways, let's get into it: Two Twins hitters are projected for 30 or more homers, both Brian Dozier (31) and Miguel Sano (30). Eddie Rosario is slated to have 21, with Byron Buxton clubbing 18. Kennys Vargas is projected for 25 across 506 plate appearances (which is not a mark I see him getting anywhere near). Sano is pegged for a 35.4% strikeout rate, which would be virtually identical to his last two seasons. His 116 wRC+ would lead the Twins, but come in lower than his 124 wRC+ from 2017. Assuming he gets 400+ plate appearances at the big league level, Brent Rooker is given a projection of 17 HRs with a .226/.288/.396 slash line for the Twins. Average still isn't something I'm certain Byron Buxton will ever call an asset, but a .246/.305/.426 slash line from the Minnesota center fielder would be more than welcomed. Adding in his defense, he'd likely get an MVP vote or two. Returning to the land of the .300+ batting average a season ago, ZiPS pegs Mauer for a .286/.368/.394 slash line in 2018. That .286 mark is expected to be good enough to lead the Twins, and contribute to a 103 wRC+ total. Here's some player comparisons ZiPS sees: Dozier (Ryne Sandberg), Buxton (Adam Jones), Mauer (Keith Hernandez), Grossman (Bobby Kielty). Coming in JUST under 9.0 K/9, Berrios is projected for 174 strikeouts in 176 innings. Unfortunately, that innings total is also expected to be the largest total for Twins pitchers. Regression is expected to bite Ervin Santana, as his ERA swells from 3.28 in 2017, to 4.10. Berrios checks in with a 3.92 ERA. The four best ERA marks are all attributed to relievers: Curtiss (3.46), Hildenberger (3.50), Duke (3.51), and Pressly (3.63). Jose Berrios' number one comparison is Dave Stieb, and he carries a 3.3 zWAR projection. That's over double the 1.6 zWAR projection he was given prior to the 2017 season. Stephen Gonsalves' 1.1 zWAR checks in as the highest mark among rookie pitchers for Minnesota. After having six players projected for 2.0+ zWAR in 2017, only three (Dozier/Buxton/Sano) surpass that total this season. Sano and Mauer are the only regulars with zWAR increases year-over-year. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I can't figure out how to split it by the dates I went off of above on Fangraphs, but he was at 59.5% first pitch strikes last season. That's virtually identical to each of the past two years.

Based upon what I saw at Baseball Savant (Statcast) his curveball and fastball percentages remained virtually the same. The slider increase took some away from the changeup if I remember correctly.

Entering the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins greatest need is starting pitching. Obviously, that is a similar narrative for many teams across the sport, but there's little denying that things line up for the hometown team to make a big splash in the starting rotation. While Jose Berrios and Ervin Santana are locks among the five this year, Paul Molitor will have to quickly find out what Kyle Gibson he has in 2018. The former 1st round (22nd overall) pick by Minnesota in 2009 has been the focus of many stories wondering if it will ever all come together. Making his big league debut at the age of 25 back in 2013, Gibson now embarks on his 6th MLB season, and will be doing so at the age of 30. He's yet to pitch more than 195 innings in a season, and his career 4.70 ERA speaks of mediocrity in the truest sense of the word. A pitch-to-contact type, Gibson's career 6.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 doesn't leave much to get hyped about, simply showing a level of predictability. Rewind back to mid-2017 however, and Gibson appeared to buck his own narrative. Despite looking like a non-tender candidate for the early part of the year, the former Mizzou Tiger landed a 2018 arbitration deal that will come in somewhere around $5 million. Now the question is, how did he get there and will it continue? A year ago, Gibson's first 17 starts for the Twins added up to a 6.29 ERA and a .920 OPS. He was sent down to Triple-A, and was dealt a hard dose of reality. After posting a 5.07 ERA in 2016, the 3.84 ERA from 2015 looked like a distant memory. Then, in a get-right opportunity, Gibson turned things around against the hapless Detroit Tigers on July 22nd. Twirling 7.1 IP of three-run ball, it was the first time since September 13, 2016 that he pitched at least seven innings. From that point on, a period of 12 starts, Gibson owned a 3.57 ERA and allowed opponents to tally just a .699 OPS. The change was drastic, and the sample size was indicative of it being sustainable. Going forward though, can he replicate what drove that success? First and foremost, Gibson missed significantly more bats. In his first 17 starts from 2017, Gibson generated strikeouts just 14.1% of the time, while walking 10.4% of batters he faced. Those numbers are a far cry from the 22.1% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate posted in the final 12 times on the mound. By getting more batters out on his own, he also increased his strand rate from 68.1% to 79.2%. Virtually all of Gibson's balls put in play remained comparable by the percentages. He didn't have a drastic change in line drive, ground ball, or fly ball rates. He was able to shave just about 5% off of his HR/FB rate however. The dip in balls leaving the park could potentially be attributed to a slight swing (roughly 4%) of outcomes taken away from hard contact, and added to soft contact. What that also suggests however, is that we dive into the repertoire. In looking at Gibson's offerings, I think there's a few takeaways to consider. First and foremost, there was a drastic change in regards to how Kyle attacked the strikezone. After predominantly working in the lower half of the zone through his bad stretch, Gibson attacked higher in the zone and on the corners down the stretch. Not being a high velocity pitcher (averaging 92.7 mph on his fastball) forcing the ball up in the zone can help to get it on hitters quicker. Obviously the swing plane changes based upon pitch location, and the added advantage of going up and in suggests Gibson felt more comfortable challenging opposing hitters. Secondly, there was one pitch that jumped off the page during his success. After using his slider just 14% of the time through his first 1,495 pitches in 2017, the usage jumped over 20% through his final 1,115 pitches on the season. The numbers didn't equate to the career high 22.1% of sliders he threw a year ago (in fact he was at just 17.8% on the season), but it was clearly an offering he felt comfortable going back to. Notably, the slider also became somewhat of an out pitch. Looking at Gibson's pitch types by count courtesy of Baseball Savant, favorable counts saw a significant amount of the sweeping pitch. Despite being more of an afterthought early in the year, the slider generated 5% swinging strikes in the second half (compared to 3% in the first). Finally, the slight changes allowed Gibson to see a difference in the results of batted balls against him. Launch angle for opposing hitters decreased, while barreled balls fell off a cliff. Gibson was generating slightly more weak contact, and the quality of balls being put into the field of play as a whole had sunk. Likely an indicator of the process as a whole, as opposed to any one single scenario, Gibson was seeing a payoff for his new tactics. As a whole, it's hard to suggest that 2018 will see a full season of Gibson at his best. While the positive signs were shown down the stretch, none of the changes were revolutionary, and the differences were rather minor in the grand scheme of things. With a new pitching coach in Garvin Alston, maybe Gibson will find even more success with his slider than before. What we don't know, is whether the slight differences translate to sustainability for a 30 year old over the course of 30-plus starts. I do think that there's enough reason to believe Gibson can be more of his 2015 self than he's been each of the past two seasons however, and that would give Minnesota a quality back end option. Even before adding another high-level arm into the fold, the Twins will have a stable of options to round out the rotation. With youth as a disadvantage, pitchers like Gibson and Phil Hughes will have to put their best foot forward on a nightly basis to set themselves apart. I'm not going to suggest Gibson will live up to his pre-debut hype, but serviceable seems to be a fair bet in 2018. For more from Off The Baggy (and to see the graphical depictions of this article) click here. Follow @tlschwerz

It seems the comments are focused on an extension. I'm not worried about that, and honestly wouldn't extend Dozier knowing the cash he'll be handed. The point was the Twins would be in an ideal spot if Dozier had another year or two allowing Dozier to pillow to whatever happens with Gordon/Polanco/Javier/Lewis/Arreaz/etc

That has the chance to get ugly considering he'd be 37 at the end.

I may have missed it, but I don't remember that report.

Not all contracts are created equal, and for the most part, it’s simple to see whether a deal worked out or whether it didn’t. In Twins Territory, Joe Mauer’s mega contract is generally a lightning pole of debate. In responding to such debates, my go to is generally that new contracts are negotiated based on past performance and belief in future production. For Brian Dozier, it’s fair to look back and wonder what if for Minnesota.At the time of his deal, a four-year, $20 million pact, Dozier looked like a manageable extension for an up-and-coming second basemen. My initial thoughts were that both sides came out for the better, but that the Twins could find themselves getting bitten in the end by not buying into his free agent years. Here we are now, approaching the 2018 season, and Dozier is unsigned going into 2019. If the Twins could do it all over again, I’m not certain a six-year deal wouldn’t have made more sense. Dating back to 2013, only the Houston Astros Jose Altuve has posted a higher fWAR (23.9) than the Twins two-bagger. Dozier is the only second basemen with more than 100 (127) homers in that time, and the next closest player is the Seattle Mariners Robinson Cano (97). Dozier’s walk rate is second among players at the position with at least 1,500 plate appearances in that span, and his wOBA is fourth, trailing only Altuve, Daniel Murphy and Cano. In short, since becoming a big league regular in 2013, he’s been no worse than a top three second basemen in the entire game. Over the life of his current contract (2015 onward), Dozier has been worth 14.1 fWAR. To date, he’s been paid just $11 million of the total $20 million deal (leaving $9 million for 2018). In terms of dollars, Fangraphs quantifies his production having been worth $113.1 million through the life of his contract. By that metric alone, the Twins have recouped over ten times their investment in the player that the Southern Mississippi star has become. In 2018, Dozier will be playing at the age of 31, meaning he’ll hit free agency at 32. Thus far in his career, he has 1,249 games under his belt in the professional ranks. He’s played at least 147 of the possible 162 games in a season dating back to 2013, and his durability is something that’s been noted plenty. Going forward, it’s fair to question whether or not that level of availability will stick with him. As a late-blooming prospect however, his prime appears to have fallen further into his time in the big leagues. There’s no doubt that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will have some positional juggling to do in 2018 and beyond, but having Dozier force the situation could’ve been in the best interest of the hometown nine. It’s uncertain as to whether or not Jorge Polanco can stick at shortstop, and there’s a question as to how long Miguel Sano can play third base. We don’t know what Nick Gordon, Wander Javier or Royce Lewis will produce, and it’s hard to pinpoint exact readiness regarding any number of these scenarios. What’s probably more than fair to assume however, is that right now, Minnesota would likely prefer to not have to be making the Dozier decision. Had the former regime offered a contract to age 33 or 34, the dollars would’ve risen some in exchange for free agent years, but the Twins current decisions would likely be much simpler. As things stand, the Dozier camp and Minnesota enter 2018 with what I’d presume to be two separate ideas of what’s next. The Twins preference should be along the lines of a two or three year deal to avoid hitting the skids on the back end. As an older free agent, Dozier can likely see this is his last opportunity to cash in, and a five or six year offering would be mighty enticing. Nothing over the past handful of seasons has suggested that regression is coming for the Twins All-Star second basemen. He’s among the best power hitters in the game, and he does it at a position not otherwise known for that kind of production. If Dozier puts up the “contract year boost” the numbers could be otherworldly, and the Twins would certainly stand to benefit. Whatever happens, I think the takeaway here is that while hindsight may be 20/20, a bit more commitment up front will look like a good thing. Dozier is going to have the Twins asking some tough questions of themselves at whatever point they begin to negotiate, and at this stage in the game, it’s hard to know if anyone has the definitive answers. Click here to view the article

As someone with a significant blog history here, I feel like Twins Daily fosters the exact reason why I write. It's not about getting paid or recognition, but instead an avenue to share opinions and incite discussion. Admittedly, I'm not great about forum engagement, but there's rarely a discussion that takes place on Twitter or my blog pieces that I don't welcome. Prior to becoming a regular contributor to Twins Daily, I did find it disheartening to not have stories on the front page. Not for clicks or notoriety, but solely for the fact I believed it invited more discussion. Since becoming a regular contributor, that factor has only added to my desire to continue to share opinion and do some analysis pieces. I blog in my spare time, but have enough of it that I enjoy carving time out to do so. I'm not sure if I provided any insight or answers, but I do know that this site has only helped to foster a passion for a hobby I didn't know I had.

Because he got hurt may be a potential pushback from other teams, but you can bet this duo isn't moving him for anything less than a big time return.

You mean like how they needed pen help and addressed it intelligently? You mean like they need starting help and that remains their focus?

While you were opening presents, spending time with your family, and scarfing down cookies on Christmas, the Minnesota Twins went shopping in the free agent pool. Zach Duke becomes the latest member of Paul Molitor's bullpen, and that has some different narratives we need to discuss. Then this morning, Darren Wolfson dropped a Miguel Sano sized bomb that needs some more dissecting as well. Duke, who will pitch the 2018 season at the age of 35, is just over a year removed from Tommy John surgery. After undergoing the procedure in September of 2016, he returned for 27 appearances and 18.1 IP for the Cardinals a year ago. In that time, he posted a 3.93 ERA along with a 5.9 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. What makes Duke intriguing however, is what his numbers look like immediately prior to his injury. Having pitched as a starter for the entirety of his time with the Pirates (2005-10), Duke didn't become a true full-time reliever until 2014. In his three years of relief work, he posted a 2.74 ERA across 180.1 IP for the Brewers, White Sox, and Cardinals. That number also came with a glowing 10.4 K/9 and a 3.9 BB/9. Out of the pen, Duke really didn't see much of a velocity boost, still hovering around the 89 mph range. In 2017, Duke returned with his fastball averaging 88.1 mph (so slightly down from pre-surgery). He utilizes a sinker, slider, changeup, and curveball making him a valuable four-pitch pitcher in relief. As a lefty, Minnesota can now look at Buddy Boshers as expendable, and would then have an avenue to get the 40 man roster back to 39 players. Per Darren Wolfson, Duke's deal is a one-year contract worth something like $1.5-2 million. This follows along the same lines as what I believe the Twins told us with Fernando Rodney. They looked for relief help that could be had on one-year deals with significant upside. Both Duke and Rodney are bolster a pen that needed help in 2017, and neither are true roadblocks to the emergence of players such as Tyler Jay, Alan Busenitz, J.T. Chargois, or Jake Reed. Rather than building an expensive pen, Minnesota is getting creative and making what seem to be smart decisions. On another front, it appears that the Twins are exploring all avenues when it comes to bettering the roster as a whole. Talking on 1500 ESPN, Wolfson noted that Miguel Sano has been a name floated by Minnesota in trade talks. This hardly comes as a surprise, and I firmly believe Sano is the best piece of the young core to move if you are going to do so. Making an offer to another team with Sano as the headliner right now could be a bit tricky. Although his .859 OPS a year ago represented a great season (and a career high 28 HRs), he's coming off a season ending surgery that resulted in a rod being inserted in his leg. Going forward, the Twins have suggested they don't see any limitations, but at this point, that's hardly a sure thing. When considering the landscape of Twins talent however, Sano's skillset jumps out as the most replaceable asset. Going into any given year, you can expect a handful of things from Miguel Sano. He's probably going to play over an ideal weight, he'll hit a significant amount of home runs, he'll draw a decent amount of walks, the strikeouts will be there, and at times you'll need to utilize first base or the designated hitter spot to get him off of third. There's a lot of good in those realities, but there's a few very real detractors as well. Those detractors are no doubt the highlights of the conversations Minnesota's front office must have when considering moving their All Star third basemen. Even with the injury uncertainty, Minnesota isn't simply going to have to give Sano away. While it may deflate his value a bit, I'd bet that there's plenty of teams looking at him as a future cornerstone. Should a match be made in which Sano can return front line pitching, I'd suggest that as something the Twins should explore. If Yu Darvish can't be had on the open market, a swap of Chris Archer for Miguel Sano (and another piece or two) could be something that would benefit the Twins in the long run. Getting a controllable pitcher, with ace potential, in return for a power hitting corner infielder seems to be a decent tradeoff. Third base isn't a position with a ton of options, but both Todd Frazier and Mike Moustakas remain available for a team to jump at. Eduardo Escobar could also assume the starting role, with a bigger bopper but lesser fielder left on the bench to rotate in. At any rate, the tradeoff seems one worth exploring. As things stand now, I'd imagine Minnesota would prefer to sign Darvish as opposed to trading Sano. Keeping physical assets while spending cash should always be the preferred mode of acquisition with all things being equal. However, as the scenarios work themselves out, it certainly appears like Thad Levine and Derek Falvey have a backup plan or two in place. The Hot Stove may be cool for the moment, but I don't think we'll continue to see it stay that way for the rest of the winter.

With a slow offseason thus far, especially for the Minnesota Twins, the main talking points have resided around the Hall of Fame ballots made public thus far. Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs) continues to run an incredible tracker on Twitter, and so far for Minnesotans, there’s a disappointing development. Johan Santana is going to be one and done when it comes to The Hall.As of this writing, 72 ballots have been made public (or roughly 17% of the total vote). The former Twins ace has yet to garner a single nod, and while I’d hope he gets at least a few, it’s all but certain he’ll fall below the necessary 5% to get a second go-round. While it’s fair for the argument to be made that he’s simply not a Hall of Famer, that argument has always been based on longevity, or its lack. From 2002-2010, Johan Santana was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He compiled a 2.90 ERA with over 1,780 strikeouts in 1,779.0 IP. He picked up four All-Star appearances while winning two (should have been three, Bartolo) Cy Young awards. Across the entirety of Twins history, he is arguably the greatest starting pitcher to ever put on the uniform. This tale however isn’t one pushing for his enshrinement, as we know too well how it ends. Santana missed the 2011 season, returned with the New York Mets in 2012, and tried numerous comeback attempts following that season. His career was done in by injuries, and his career of 12 big league seasons was brought to an end by those injuries. When looking at enshrinement, Santana’s case is always argued alongside a current Hall of Famer known as The Left Arm of God. Sandy Koufax pitched just 12 years as well, while winning three Cy Young awards and an MVP. His career 2.76 ERA bests Santana (3.20) and he reached the 2,000 K plateau (2,396) while Johan did not (1,988). When the dust settles it appears that a lack of longevity (due to health issues) will be what causes an end to any hope for a plaque. On the other side of the coin, it’s intriguing to look at the polar opposite case that current Minnesota Twins first basemen Joe Mauer will present to the voters in a number of years. Reading through Jay Jaffe’s Cooperstown Case Book, it couldn’t be any clearer that the JAWS system suggest he should be a lock for Cooperstown. Jaffe himself is of the opinion that on merits alone, Mauer has a place in upstate New York, but it comes with a single caveat. Where Santana’s tunnel was too short, the question for Mauer will be whether or not his was too long. As a catcher, Mauer may have arguably been the greatest of all time. Through a decade, Mauer owned a .323/.405/.468 slash line while picking up six All-Star Game appearances, five Silver Sluggers, three Gold Gloves, and an MVP. He also is the only catcher to win multiple batting titles (three), and was the first to do so since 1942 (only AL catcher to ever accomplish the feat). In his ten years as a catcher, Mauer posted a 43.1 fWAR. That mark ranks 20th all- time, with an average yearly value of 4.13 fWAR. Applying that number to his 14-year career, he’d be staring at a 60.3 fWAR (as opposed to 48.1 fWAR), which would put him eighth all-time, of catchers. Of the seven ahead of him, only Mike Piazza played fewer than 17 seasons, and all of the names included (Torre, Piazza, Berra, Fisk, Rodriguez, Carter, and Bench) are enshrined. When looking at Mauer, it’s relatively hard to predict how he’ll be received on the ballot. His time at first base, following the brain injury that forced him from behind the plate, has been far from noteworthy. Despite the metrics suggesting him as a lock for a Gold Glove in 2017 (making him just the third player ever to win one at multiple positions, and first former catcher), he was snubbed, not even being considered a finalist. While Gold Gloves hold little merit in most realms, they are a counting factor among Hall of Fame debates. With a year left on his contract, and limited time following, it’ll be hard for him to generate any noteworthy statistic in his new role. By the time Mauer is welcomed onto the ballot, likely by 2024, the BBWAA voting contingent will look significantly different. As MLB.com writers have been ushered in, as well as a younger demographic overall, it will be interesting to see in what regard the Twins great is held. He could be heralded for his performance behind the plate, or he could be diminished for his time spent in decline playing a new role. A plaque in the Hall of Fame is the ultimate goal for a major league baseball player. An acknowledgement that you’ve made it as one of the best to ever play the game, there’s no overstating how powerful that moment must be for a ballplayer. When retroactively viewing careers, it’s an interesting and difficult decision to decipher between what may be too little (Santana) and what may be too much (Mauer). The tunnel of time spent in the big leagues could hardly be more polar opposite for the two potential Hall-of-Famers, but they may end up seeing their detractors lead them to the same fate. As Santana finds himself ushered off the ballot, fans from Twins Territory will be looking for their next great to latch onto. 2011 represents the enshrinement of Bert Blyleven, following a lengthy campaign, and hope for who’s next may rest on Mauer’s laurels. We won’t know how this story plays out for some time, but in 2017, we’ve seen how the flip side has been viewed. Click here to view the article

I may be wrong and they may have just talked with his reps? I guess what I'm getting at is that I don't believe a meeting signifies anything about when he's signing or where he's leaning.

As far as I'm aware, he met with the Twins at the Winter Meetings. Regardless, don't believe the meetings tell us anything other than to confirm Rhett Bollinger's report that he's not close to signing and it'll be a few weeks. He's seemingly gathering information on all suitors, which is smart.

I'd put Archer on the same level as Darvish, but would prefer to use money as opposed to prospects to acquire a pitcher. If you settle on Cole, I'm not sure Lynn or Cobb isn't more appealing.

If not Darvish, I'd prefer going all in on prospects for Archer. I think of acquiring Cole as somewhere along the lines of Lynn and Cobb. You'll lose some, but is the gain all that significant?