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Ted Schwerzler

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  1. Recent reports have suggested that the Twins may be interested in using the trade market to handle some roster moves this winter. Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press reported that Minnesota has called on names like Gerrit Cole and Jake Odorizzi. Meanwhile, Darren Wolfson of KSTP noted that he sees it more likely Minnesota will use the trade market to strike a deal. With these reports in mind, what do the Twins have to offer?First and foremost, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine sent a message that they intend to be active in the coming weeks and months. In leaving prospects like Jake Reed, Kohl Stewart and Lewin Diaz unprotected from the Rule 5 draft, they also kept four open spots on the 40-man roster. It stands to reason that those spots could be used on more immediate solutions, and potentially, players with higher ceilings. Suggesting that the Twins have four free agents in mind to take the openings is a bad bet, but the flexibility tells us the ball is rolling. Guys like Cole and Odorizzi aren’t going to come cheap. They’ve had real success at the big league level and remain under team control going forward. There’s no doubt other names are being talked about, and if they are cut from the same cloth, the Twins won’t be able to simply pry away, at low cost, a player or two. Despite the farm system not being what it was a year or two ago, Minnesota actually has a nice stockpile of options to move, so let’s take a look at some of them. The Shortstops: This group may be among the most impressive collections in all of baseball. Both Nick Gordon and Royce Lewis are top 100 prospects, while Wander Javier is going to quickly shoot up prospect lists in the next few months. Add in names like Jermaine Palacios and Luis Arraez (more of a 2B), and you’ve got a quality collection of talent. If I’m an opposing club, this is a group that provides plenty of intrigue. If I’m the Twins, Lewis is probably the only player that’s off limits. The Arms: Although the Twins need pitching at the big league level, you can bet any deal for a true MLB starter is going to cost a prospect in return. Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero are the cream of the Minnesota crop, while Felix Jorge and Brusdar Graterol may be the next men up. The Twins added to the system in the form of names like Enlow, Littell, Leach and Watson over the past year, but it remains an area that any club is looking to build out. Gonsalves appears MLB ready now, and Romero should command a hefty ransom, but an acquisition with a proven track record may be enticing enough to move any of these names. The Bats: If we’re excluding the depth the Twins have in the middle of the infield on the farm, the offensive side of things takes a bit of a dip. Brent Rooker looks like a stud, and should soon be penciled in to big league lineups in Minnesota. Behind him however, things get a bit more uncertain. Diaz could skate through the Rule 5 draft having not played above Single-A, or the club could look to deal him first. Alex Kirilloff is a presence at the plate, but is coming off a lost season due to injury. Travis Blankenhorn looks the part of a sleeper prospect, and he could be joined by LaMonte Wade or 2017 pick Andrew Bechtold. Kirilloff seems like the most expendable asset here given the likelihood he moves the needle for an opposing club, but in this group there likely is not a cornerstone in any potential deal. The Bigs: Should the Twins be targeting major league ready talent, they may find themselves needing to give up some proven commodities as well. On such a young team, that’s a scary proposition, as the vast majority see their prime’s lying ahead of them. Eddie Rosario was a trade candidate prior to his breakout 2017, and Max Kepler may still be despite seeing his value sag. Minnesota could flip Jorge Polanco if there’s more belief in the farm options as well. As a whole however, plucking from this group seems like it could definitely come back to bite the hometown team. No matter what moves the Twins make, there’s no such thing as getting talent without giving it up. Falvey and Levine are going to have to make hard decisions in acquiring players from another organization. While it’s just money on the free agent market, there’s more to be had through a potential trade. Trusting in evaluations of both their internal assets as well as what they’ll be receiving is obviously integral to the process. Personally, I’d prefer to see the Twins dangle some combination built around Gordon or Kirilloff, maybe even getting interesting with international bonus money used. While doling out big paydays has become the norm, finding competitive advantages will always need to be the Twins plan of attack. The hot stove is warming up, and I’d be surprised if we don’t hear some of these scenarios begin to be speculated upon. Click here to view the article
  2. First and foremost, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine sent a message that they intend to be active in the coming weeks and months. In leaving prospects like Jake Reed, Kohl Stewart and Lewin Diaz unprotected from the Rule 5 draft, they also kept four open spots on the 40-man roster. It stands to reason that those spots could be used on more immediate solutions, and potentially, players with higher ceilings. Suggesting that the Twins have four free agents in mind to take the openings is a bad bet, but the flexibility tells us the ball is rolling. Guys like Cole and Odorizzi aren’t going to come cheap. They’ve had real success at the big league level and remain under team control going forward. There’s no doubt other names are being talked about, and if they are cut from the same cloth, the Twins won’t be able to simply pry away, at low cost, a player or two. Despite the farm system not being what it was a year or two ago, Minnesota actually has a nice stockpile of options to move, so let’s take a look at some of them. The Shortstops: This group may be among the most impressive collections in all of baseball. Both Nick Gordon and Royce Lewis are top 100 prospects, while Wander Javier is going to quickly shoot up prospect lists in the next few months. Add in names like Jermaine Palacios and Luis Arraez (more of a 2B), and you’ve got a quality collection of talent. If I’m an opposing club, this is a group that provides plenty of intrigue. If I’m the Twins, Lewis is probably the only player that’s off limits. The Arms: Although the Twins need pitching at the big league level, you can bet any deal for a true MLB starter is going to cost a prospect in return. Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero are the cream of the Minnesota crop, while Felix Jorge and Brusdar Graterol may be the next men up. The Twins added to the system in the form of names like Enlow, Littell, Leach and Watson over the past year, but it remains an area that any club is looking to build out. Gonsalves appears MLB ready now, and Romero should command a hefty ransom, but an acquisition with a proven track record may be enticing enough to move any of these names. The Bats: If we’re excluding the depth the Twins have in the middle of the infield on the farm, the offensive side of things takes a bit of a dip. Brent Rooker looks like a stud, and should soon be penciled in to big league lineups in Minnesota. Behind him however, things get a bit more uncertain. Diaz could skate through the Rule 5 draft having not played above Single-A, or the club could look to deal him first. Alex Kirilloff is a presence at the plate, but is coming off a lost season due to injury. Travis Blankenhorn looks the part of a sleeper prospect, and he could be joined by LaMonte Wade or 2017 pick Andrew Bechtold. Kirilloff seems like the most expendable asset here given the likelihood he moves the needle for an opposing club, but in this group there likely is not a cornerstone in any potential deal. The Bigs: Should the Twins be targeting major league ready talent, they may find themselves needing to give up some proven commodities as well. On such a young team, that’s a scary proposition, as the vast majority see their prime’s lying ahead of them. Eddie Rosario was a trade candidate prior to his breakout 2017, and Max Kepler may still be despite seeing his value sag. Minnesota could flip Jorge Polanco if there’s more belief in the farm options as well. As a whole however, plucking from this group seems like it could definitely come back to bite the hometown team. No matter what moves the Twins make, there’s no such thing as getting talent without giving it up. Falvey and Levine are going to have to make hard decisions in acquiring players from another organization. While it’s just money on the free agent market, there’s more to be had through a potential trade. Trusting in evaluations of both their internal assets as well as what they’ll be receiving is obviously integral to the process. Personally, I’d prefer to see the Twins dangle some combination built around Gordon or Kirilloff, maybe even getting interesting with international bonus money used. While doling out big paydays has become the norm, finding competitive advantages will always need to be the Twins plan of attack. The hot stove is warming up, and I’d be surprised if we don’t hear some of these scenarios begin to be speculated upon.
  3. Reed is as good as gone. Burdi can be stashed on the DL all year, but then he has to remain on the active roster all of 2019, a team just can't circumvent it. Stewart, if taken, will be solely on the idea that he could turn into a useful starter.
  4. Recently, the Twins (and all of Major League Baseball) had to finalize their 40 man roster in regards to Rule 5 Draft protection. While the Rule 5 Draft isn't until the conclusion of the Winter Meetings, any eligible players left unprotected on the 40 man are now eligible to be taken by other clubs. With Minnesota having around six guys they could've added, the expectation was that more than a few would be chosen. After the dust settled though, we may have gotten our first teaser into what will be a busy offseason. Prior to the deadline for 40 man additions, the Twins added three pitchers to their 40 man roster. Top starting prospect Stephen Gonsalves was joined by Zack Littell, and Lewis Thorpe. Littell was acquired from the Yankees when Minnesota ate Jaime Garcia's salary, and Thorpe has rebounded well from Tommy John surgery. Those three were essential locks, but the exclusion of three names may turn some heads. I'd argue the assumed expectation was that each of Jake Reed, Kohl Stewart, and Lewin Diaz would be added as well. After the moves were made, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had four spots left to work with on the 40 man. Sitting at 36 of 40, each of the three aforementioned players could've been included, but there's most definitely a reason they were left off. First and foremost, it may be best to take a look at their individual contributions. Reed was a 5th round pick in 2014, seen as a fast mover through the system, and a way to garner relief help at the major league level. Outside of a tough 2015, he's been very good for the Minnesota organization. Despite missing time to start 2017 following a spring training injury on the final day, he posted a 2.13 ERA across Double and Triple-A. While Reed has a relatively safe floor, the ceiling may have decreased some in recent years. As the strikeouts have sagged, the walks have risen. Had things broke differently in 2017, he probably would've been a no-brainer for a September call up. The highest pick of the three, Kohl Stewart, may be the most intriguing. Taken 4th overall in the 2013 draft, the former Texas A&M quarterback recruit has never flashed top of the rotation stuff. Velocity is middle-of-the-road, while his game has been generating ground balls. He owns just a 5.9 career K/9 and posted a 6.1 K/9 to go with a 5.3 BB/9 mark at Double-A in 2017. The former regime showed patience through injuries and development stemming from a kid just beginning to play baseball full time. Now at 23, the flame out worries are genuine, and it seems the new regime has more questions than answers. Rounding out the trio is Lewin Diaz. Diaz was signed out of the Dominican Republic and has long been a prospect darling as a power bat. After putting up a .928 OPS in the App League during 2016 as a 19 year old, 2017 became an important year for the lefty masher. Diaz posted just a .773 OPS at Single-A Cedar Rapids, but did hit for average (.292) and added 12 home runs. I'd imagine the thought process here is that if a major league team wants to gamble on bringing a 21 year-old yet to play above Single-A to the big leagues for a full season, that's a risk Minnesota is willing to let them take. Looking at the three main omissions as a whole, Diaz seems to be the most understandable. I'd wager there's about a 35% chance he's lost in the Rule 5 Draft, and for a power hitting, bat first type, that's something you can probably replace. Both Reed and Stewart are different stories, and I'd put them at 100% and 90% gone respectively. Reed is big league ready right now, even if he's not yet a polished prospect. The walks are an issue, but there's strikeout stuff there even if it's only in the mid-90's. Stewart probably can't start on a regular basis in the big leagues, but being stashed in long relief for a pitching-needy team seems to be a smart bet. With Falvey and Levine willing to lose two decent pitching commodities for an organization who could use more, the assumption is that more must be in play. Reed could've been added to the 40 man, and helped to fill out a Twins pen needing improvement. In being passed over, and with spots open, it's almost certain that Twins brass sees the need for proven big league help in the pen. Rather than taking fliers on guys that could accept a minor league or one-year deal, it stands to reason a big league contract could be offered to a true arm. On the starting side, Stewart represents more quantity than quality in terms of starting depth. While the Twins need to beef up their rotation, right now the group of guys filling out the back end seems to be relatively plump. Adding top of the rotation pieces is where Minnesota needs to focus, and Stewart doesn't ever appear to profile as that. Again, open 40 man spots suggest that pitching is going to be a focus, and we should have clarity soon enough. It'll be interesting to see if Minnesota can package either Reed or Stewart in any prospective trade talks. With the market for starting pitching being thin, and the expected loss of both players in the Rule 5 Draft, they could be moved for a return prior to that date. It's always tough for prospects of a former regime to find their footing amongst new bosses, but it seems the Twins levied some clarity to the group. Now, the organization will begin to show us what they intend to do with their four open roster spots, and that's plenty exciting. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. It's not lost on me, it just gets pushed down the line. Pretty incredible however.
  6. Now in it's third installment, the week of Thanksgiving prompts the revealing of the Minnesota Twins Diamond Treasure. Crafted after being moved by the 2015 Turkey of the Year piece penned by Patrick Reusse of the Star Tribune, this article has been carried on at Off The Baggy. The Diamond Treasure is designed to be able to highlight a player or area of the organization showing excitement for the future, while having roots established in the past. Now in the third year, the inaugural winner was Miguel Sano. Last season, the new front office tandem of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine too home the Diamond Treasure. For 2017, I think the designation was all to glaring to overlook. Minnesota centerfielder Byron Buxton is your diamond treasure. The soon-to-be 24 year-old is coming off his best season as a big leaguer, and we've only begun to scratch the surface. Debuting with the Twins at 21 years-old, things are just now beginning to bear fruit. Picking up enough votes to finish 18th in MVP balloting and tally his first (of many) Gold Gloves, Buxton show plenty of promise to get excited about his future. As things stand currently, the former first round draft pick may be the best defensive outfielder in all of baseball. He essentially redefined the Statcast-era of defensive metrics this season, owning the top spot in Outs Above Average and Catch Probability. His sprint speed numbers dubbed him as the fastest man in the game, and his Gold Glove was actually a proper reflection of his defensive acumen in terms of sabermetrics. What's most impressive though, is that he's just scratching the surface as a player. In garnering the MVP votes, Buxton was able to do so despite hitting below the Mendoza Line as late as July 3. His defense didn't slump, and the speed never will, but that early season struggle at the plate hung over his head for most of the season. Broken down however, James Rowson was able to reconstruct the centerfielder's swing at the highest level. After finding a better footing, Buxton slashed .285/.339/.492 from June 11 onwards (85 G). Over the course of a full season, that level of production no doubt vaults Buxton into a top five MVP conversation. Thus far through his big league career, Byron Buxton has experienced a roller coaster of emotions. With so much promise and hype, the former top draft pick was never going to escape the immense expectations set out for him. The reality however, is that he remains a kid by big league standards, and is just now coming into his more adult frame. With 278 games at the highest level under his belt already, Buxton far surpasses what Kirby Puckett (0 games) and Torii Hunter (142 games) had for MLB experience prior to their 24th birthdays. That should only enhance the belief in what's yet to come. Sometimes players race out to an immediate showing of exceptional ability, and whether it fades or sticks, remains a mystery. For Buxton, it appears a level of growth was a slower process, but he's been made all the better for it. There's a good amount of time yet before he'll be considered in his prime, and the amount of high level production to be expected should be sustained for well over a decade. Developed from within, and bearing fruits internally, the Twins find themselves in as great of a spot as Buxton himself. We haven't even begun to see the best of the Twins star centerfielder, but at this time of thanks, I think it's fair to be thankful that the hometown team has a legitimate superstar on their hands. 2018 should be a ton of fun for the organization, and it could be the one where Byron becomes the poster boy. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. The Minnesota Twins made a tough, but necessary move following a 103-loss season a year ago. In firing Terry Ryan, the team that calls Target Field home was going to be the business residence to new front office personnel for the first time in quite a while. Although both Derek Falvey and Thad Levine went through their first offseason with Minnesota last year, it’s now that seems to be the time they can show of their true acumen.Billed as forward thinkers, new-age baseball guys, and numbers focused, Falvey and Levine represent a very new culture for the Twins. We saw that play out more off the field than on it during 2017. With coaches like James Rowson and Jeff Pickler brought aboard, Falvine went young and progressive thinking right out of the gate. Former big league pitcher Jeremy Heffner was added to the organization, and those cut from the same cloth have continued to be called upon. Garvin Alston and Tanner Swanson both seem to be in that category as well. Over the course of their organizational additions, Falvey and Levine have continued to display a tendency to follow through on something Levine mentioned during a mid-season Baseball Prospectus event. While the Twins may not outspend the competition on the field, they can find a competitive advantage in how they hire off of it. Beefing up the analytics department, and putting people in place that challenge players and coaches alike seems to be a good strategy. It’s of the same line of thinking that landed Jason Castro with the Twins for 2017. While pitching remains an expensive fix, an adept receiver can raise the overall water level of the pitching staff for a fraction of the cost. Heading into what will be their first true offseason, or the one in which they feel comfortable making waves, Twins fans should find excitement in what we’ve been led to believe thus far. There’s a pretty low probability that the hometown nine sign the likes of Shohei Otani or even Yu Darvish, but the fact that they’ve been mentioned in the conversation is nice to see. Rather than looking for the scrap heap additions that can be made from minor league deals, it seems that the front office is aware that the time is now. With Minnesota having graduated more than a handful of top prospects, the next phase in a rebuild is to supplement from outside. Pairing young players poised to break into their primes with established veterans is as good a recipe for winning as I can think of. That Falvine took the first year to make sure the correct infrastructure was in place should only further the ability to draw the most out of their on-field decisions. Through the GM Meetings, Rule 5 Draft, Winter Meetings, and Free Agency as a whole, it will be worth dissecting what each decision is actually telling us. Rather than wondering what a certain player brings to the Twins, trying to understand what Falvey and Levine see as the play could be just as beneficial. In an uncapped sport with each team having access to the same commodities, it’s on the Twins to continue to carve out a competitive advantage. Whether or not we know now that Falvey has his sights set on the next Corey Kluber, trying to understand the thought process is half of the excitement. Indirectly, we’ve been told an incredible amount by the Twins new front office over the course of their first year. While the moves have not been plentiful, the process has been put in motion to bear fruit at a very respectable rate. In a thinking man’s game, it’s hard not to be on board with what seems like a brain trust that is aimed toward sustainability as opposed to immediacy. Ideally, I’d love to see the Twins open 2018 with names like Darvish, Santana, Cobb, Lynn and Shaw on their roster. Not knowing what will take place however, I’m equally excited to embark fully upon an offseason that has the chance to be one of the most intriguing in Twins franchise history. Smart people generally surround themselves with those who will challenge them, and help the overall growth of an organization. It’s fair to suggest that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have accomplished that, and the next question is; where do they go from here? Click here to view the article
  8. Billed as forward thinkers, new-age baseball guys, and numbers focused, Falvey and Levine represent a very new culture for the Twins. We saw that play out more off the field than on it during 2017. With coaches like James Rowson and Jeff Pickler brought aboard, Falvine went young and progressive thinking right out of the gate. Former big league pitcher Jeremy Heffner was added to the organization, and those cut from the same cloth have continued to be called upon. Garvin Alston and Tanner Swanson both seem to be in that category as well. Over the course of their organizational additions, Falvey and Levine have continued to display a tendency to follow through on something Levine mentioned during a mid-season Baseball Prospectus event. While the Twins may not outspend the competition on the field, they can find a competitive advantage in how they hire off of it. Beefing up the analytics department, and putting people in place that challenge players and coaches alike seems to be a good strategy. It’s of the same line of thinking that landed Jason Castro with the Twins for 2017. While pitching remains an expensive fix, an adept receiver can raise the overall water level of the pitching staff for a fraction of the cost. Heading into what will be their first true offseason, or the one in which they feel comfortable making waves, Twins fans should find excitement in what we’ve been led to believe thus far. There’s a pretty low probability that the hometown nine sign the likes of Shohei Otani or even Yu Darvish, but the fact that they’ve been mentioned in the conversation is nice to see. Rather than looking for the scrap heap additions that can be made from minor league deals, it seems that the front office is aware that the time is now. With Minnesota having graduated more than a handful of top prospects, the next phase in a rebuild is to supplement from outside. Pairing young players poised to break into their primes with established veterans is as good a recipe for winning as I can think of. That Falvine took the first year to make sure the correct infrastructure was in place should only further the ability to draw the most out of their on-field decisions. Through the GM Meetings, Rule 5 Draft, Winter Meetings, and Free Agency as a whole, it will be worth dissecting what each decision is actually telling us. Rather than wondering what a certain player brings to the Twins, trying to understand what Falvey and Levine see as the play could be just as beneficial. In an uncapped sport with each team having access to the same commodities, it’s on the Twins to continue to carve out a competitive advantage. Whether or not we know now that Falvey has his sights set on the next Corey Kluber, trying to understand the thought process is half of the excitement. Indirectly, we’ve been told an incredible amount by the Twins new front office over the course of their first year. While the moves have not been plentiful, the process has been put in motion to bear fruit at a very respectable rate. In a thinking man’s game, it’s hard not to be on board with what seems like a brain trust that is aimed toward sustainability as opposed to immediacy. Ideally, I’d love to see the Twins open 2018 with names like Darvish, Santana, Cobb, Lynn and Shaw on their roster. Not knowing what will take place however, I’m equally excited to embark fully upon an offseason that has the chance to be one of the most intriguing in Twins franchise history. Smart people generally surround themselves with those who will challenge them, and help the overall growth of an organization. It’s fair to suggest that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have accomplished that, and the next question is; where do they go from here?
  9. The Minnesota Twins enter the offseason prior to 2018 with immense expectations. Following a season in which they arrived in the postseason a year early, this club looks ready to take the next step, and the AL Central is begging them to do so. Knowing pitching remains a focus, a free agent starter seems to be a sensible acquisition. The question always revolved around how high the Twins may aim though. According to a report from Fanrag's Jon Heyman, Minnesota is coming out guns blazing. While the arms on the market are hardly plentiful at the top, Derek Falvey an Thad Levine appear to be keyed in on premier starter Yu Darvish. Levine was a part of the front office that signed him in Texas, and the fit is one I've liked for quite a while. Yes, he'll likely command the greatest contract of the available starting pitcher's, but that's not something that should deter Minnesota's efforts. Darvish will be pitching 2018 at 31 years old. He has just over 830 innings on his arm in the big leagues, but that number jumps to 2,100-plus dating back to his time with Nippon Ham in the Japanese Pacific League. Potentially no worse for the wear however, Darvish has actually added to his velocity post Tommy John surgery, and he's been healthy each of the past two seasons. For both Texas and Los Angeles in 2017, Darvish owned a 3.86 ERA across 31 starts. Rejoining the All Star team for the first time since 2014, Darvish posted a 10.1 K/9 with a paltry 2.8 BB/9. His 3.83 FIP was a career worst, but was better (3.38) with the Dodgers down the stretch. On the biggest stage in the game, Yu was knocked around by the Houston Astros, but I hardly find his World Series performance concerning. Given the talk of tipped pitches, I tend to believe Darvish is more the guy that went 11.1 IP with a 1.59 ERA against the Dbacks and Cubs, than he is the 21.60 ERA guy in 3.1 IP vs the Astros. It's likely the last chance for Darvish to cash in on a long term deal, and he'll probably want to expand upon the $11m he received a season ago. A free agent for the first time since coming to the big leagues, Darvish is going to have plenty of suitors. Even as the price tag climbs towards an expected $200m though, Minnesota should continue to fight for real estate in the Japanese pitcher's mind. At the end of the day, a perfect storm is brewing in Twins Territory. The 25 man roster has gotten younger and cheaper, while money should dive off the books in the next few years. On top of that, the division has three teams that should be virtually nonexistent in the foreseeable future, and Paul Molitor's club already began to exceed expectations. If there's a time to go and make the biggest free agent signing in franchise history, now seems as good of one as ever. With the goal being to develop internally for the sake of sustainability, there comes a point where supplementing with high-end talent from the outside seems the best answer. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are arguably now at that crossroads, and how they handle the offseason will likely lay the groundwork for how at least the next few seasons go for Minnesota. Right now, with things in such infancy, it's hard to get giddy about the potential to land a big fish. That being said, when I wanted Darvish for the Twins rotation back in May, it was for the same reasons that I feel the same way now. He's a difference maker, a solidifying presence, and a true ace. Those things don't grow on trees, and you never know when the next opportunity will present itself. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  10. Over the weekend, news broke that the Twins checked in on the availability of Cincinnati Reds closer Raisel Iglesias. While he's undoubtedly not the only player Minnesota has looked at on the trade market, his name has filtered into the media cycle at this point. No matter how much substance there is to the situation moving forward, it's worth looking at Iglesias as a player, and whether or not he fits for the Twins. First and foremost, Minnesota needs to shore up the bullpen heading into 2018. While Brandon Kintzler and Matt Belisle did an admirable job in the closer role for Paul Molitor a season ago, it's hard to imagine either in that scenario during game seven of the ALCS. As the Twins look to follow up a postseason berth this year, they'll no doubt have sights set on a deeper venture towards the World Series. While relief pitching has become the sexy topic in the playoffs, the reality is a complete team still trumps everything. The Astros won a World Series with a bullpen that was virtually on par with Minnesota in 2017, and that's worth keeping in mind. Getting to Iglesias in a vacuum, the Reds current closer is a soon-to-be 28 year old from Cuba. He is not a free agent until 2022, and is currently signed on a team friendly contract through 2020. Across 76.0 IP in 2017, Iglesias picked up 28 saves and posted a career best 2.49 ERA. His 2.70 FIP was also a career best and he cracked 10.0 K/9 for the first time in his big league career. As a starter during the 2015 season, Iglesias sat around 93 mph with his fastball. In relief last season, he was pushing 96 mph on average and dropped down to 85 mph on his slider. Despite being a bit of an older player, Iglesias quickly ascended to the big leagues. After signing out of Cuba, he pitched just 29 innings at Triple-A prior to his 2015 debut. Raisel only threw three seasons in Cuba before taking his age 23 year off to go through the process of getting stateside. Even at 28, you'd like to believe his body is a bit better for the wear. Should Minnesota choose to pursue him, the asking price would probably be substantial. Wade Davis was just a one year rental at 31 years old for the Chicago Cubs, and he required the Royals receiving Jorge Soler in return. Still under team control, and with age on his side, I'd imagine the Reds would ask the Twins for at least one top six prospect. If I'm Minnesota, it's a hesitant place to start, but something I'd be interested in hearing out. As a general philosophy, I believe it makes sense for teams close to winning to parlay either picks or prospects into immediately usable assets. Obviously this isn't a practice you can repeatedly employ or you run the risk of depleting your long term viability. Tracking guys with qualifying offers or dealing top prospects will eventually leave you in a barren place on the farm. That being said, Minnesota finds themselves in unique territory given the current organizational landscape. Following a strong season, most of the club's top prospects from the past few seasons have reached the big leagues. They won't hold an enviable draft pick having finished as one of the final teams playing as well. If the Twins can entice Cincinnati with someone like Nick Gordon or Alex Kirilloff, they could get a solid return for someone that may be an expendable piece. Closers are a fickle beast, and I'd hate to see the Twins acquire Iglesias only to use him in the 9th inning of games they lead. Ideally, bringing him in would involve him being relied upon to get high leverage outs regardless of where in the game that is. Also, if Gordon or Kirilloff generate that much interest, I'd probably see what other starting pitching they may be able to net as an alternative. If this is the only level of return that seems viable though, it's tough to pass up. The reality is that the Minnesota Twins aren't too far away, and raising the water level of the big league roster is a must. There's some really strong impact prospects in the farm system, but some of them are representative of the next wave. While you'd love to see everyone you draft come through your system, sometimes the best tradeoff is matching them elsewhere and turning a prospect into an immediately usable player. With the GM meetings ready to kick off, and the Hot Stove warming up, we'll get plenty more exciting nuggets in the weeks and months ahead. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine seem to know they have something exciting on their hands, and I feel comfortable with the direction the seem to be running in. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  11. As free agency is now fully underway for the Minnesota Twins and the rest of Major League Baseball, eligible players will begin signing deals with new teams in the days ahead. For the hometown club, the focus will undoubtedly be on pitching, and we’ve looked at both starting and relief options. If there’s a cherry to be added on top however, a right-handed bat makes some semblance of sense.Robbie Grossman will go down as one of the Twins better acquisitions in recent memory. Cast off by both the Houston Astros and Cleveland Indians, the corner outfielder was picked up off the scrap heap, and proved invaluable to Minnesota during his tenure here. He’s been an on-base machine, a clubhouse presence, and a somewhat steadying presence at DH. Coming off a season in which they made an unexpected Wild Card berth, the Twins goal will be to take the next step in 2018. While Grossman could be a part of that roster, he’s also the type of player you’d like to see expanded upon for overall roster advancement. Getting either more power or better defense from someone who can hit from the right side and play either first base or outfield is a good path to travel down. With that in mind, what are the Twins options? Easily the best name on this list, and likely the most sought after, is Carlos Santana. The former Indians first basemen is adept in the field (he should’ve won a Gold Glove this season if it wasn’t going to go to Joe Mauer), and his bat is more than capable. As a switch hitter, he’s hit from both sides well over the course of his career, despite being better from the left side in 2017. An .842 OPS with 57 homers over the past two seasons is something Minnesota would gladly inject into the lineup. Derek Falvey already has a certain level of rapport with Santana, and while that’s not going to net him much of a discount (if any), it gives them a place to start. After making $12 million in 2017, and playing 2018 at 32, he’ll be looking for a payday. While he’s not an ideal answer in the OF, Santana can spell Mauer at 1B and handle DH duties on an everyday basis. This is a splash that would be a big difference maker. A step or so down from Santana comes in the likes of a former Twins divisional foe. Todd Frazier doesn’t check off the box of an outfielder, but he’s a right-handed power bat Minnesota could give a look to. Having played the hot corner for the vast majority of his career, Frazier has also ventured over to 1B previously, and could take on a DH role. Traded to the Yankees for the stretch run, Frazier left the AL Central after just one and a half seasons with the White Sox. He last posted an .800+ OPS in 2015, and that was only the second time doing so over the course of his career. While his average sagged heavily in 2017, the .344 OPS (and .365 across 66 games with the Yankees) were very impressive. For a guy who can routinely lose 25+ balls in the seats, while getting on base, Minnesota could have interest if the money is right. Frazier could play third if Miguel Sano is forced into a permanent DH situation, and that also adds another wrinkle to the Twins intrigue. On the lowest rung of this totem pole, we find Target Field killer Jose Bautista. Coming off a terrible season and now 37 years old, it’s entirely possible the one-time Blue Jays bat flipper is cooked. What’s also a possibility is that there may be just enough left in the tank for a team-friendly deal to make sense. Despite a .674 OPS in 2017, Bautista posted an .817 OPS a year prior, and hadn’t dipped below an .800 OPS since 2009. He’s been an MVP candidate, Silver Slugger, and an All-Star while being a bomber who can hold his own in the outfield. Bautista didn’t hit anyone last year, and he’s actually been a reverse splits guy (hitting righties better) for the past few seasons. At this juncture, Baustista’s bargaining chips are fading which could make him appealing if the right situation presents itself. Summarizing this Supplementing the Twins series as a whole, my ideal offseason includes the acquisition of a starter and two relievers. Beyond that, a second starter and a bench bat would follow suit in order of preference. The reality here is that the Twins are entering a period in which they should be able to make a sustained run at the postseason. The more ground work they do to support the internal developments that have been made, the more they stand to gain. We don’t need to see them break the bank, but we’ve embarked upon the “Go for it” moments of this thing, and there are actions that can be taken to reflect that. Click here to view the article
  12. Robbie Grossman will go down as one of the Twins better acquisitions in recent memory. Cast off by both the Houston Astros and Cleveland Indians, the corner outfielder was picked up off the scrap heap, and proved invaluable to Minnesota during his tenure here. He’s been an on-base machine, a clubhouse presence, and a somewhat steadying presence at DH. Coming off a season in which they made an unexpected Wild Card berth, the Twins goal will be to take the next step in 2018. While Grossman could be a part of that roster, he’s also the type of player you’d like to see expanded upon for overall roster advancement. Getting either more power or better defense from someone who can hit from the right side and play either first base or outfield is a good path to travel down. With that in mind, what are the Twins options? Easily the best name on this list, and likely the most sought after, is Carlos Santana. The former Indians first basemen is adept in the field (he should’ve won a Gold Glove this season if it wasn’t going to go to Joe Mauer), and his bat is more than capable. As a switch hitter, he’s hit from both sides well over the course of his career, despite being better from the left side in 2017. An .842 OPS with 57 homers over the past two seasons is something Minnesota would gladly inject into the lineup. Derek Falvey already has a certain level of rapport with Santana, and while that’s not going to net him much of a discount (if any), it gives them a place to start. After making $12 million in 2017, and playing 2018 at 32, he’ll be looking for a payday. While he’s not an ideal answer in the OF, Santana can spell Mauer at 1B and handle DH duties on an everyday basis. This is a splash that would be a big difference maker. A step or so down from Santana comes in the likes of a former Twins divisional foe. Todd Frazier doesn’t check off the box of an outfielder, but he’s a right-handed power bat Minnesota could give a look to. Having played the hot corner for the vast majority of his career, Frazier has also ventured over to 1B previously, and could take on a DH role. Traded to the Yankees for the stretch run, Frazier left the AL Central after just one and a half seasons with the White Sox. He last posted an .800+ OPS in 2015, and that was only the second time doing so over the course of his career. While his average sagged heavily in 2017, the .344 OPS (and .365 across 66 games with the Yankees) were very impressive. For a guy who can routinely lose 25+ balls in the seats, while getting on base, Minnesota could have interest if the money is right. Frazier could play third if Miguel Sano is forced into a permanent DH situation, and that also adds another wrinkle to the Twins intrigue. On the lowest rung of this totem pole, we find Target Field killer Jose Bautista. Coming off a terrible season and now 37 years old, it’s entirely possible the one-time Blue Jays bat flipper is cooked. What’s also a possibility is that there may be just enough left in the tank for a team-friendly deal to make sense. Despite a .674 OPS in 2017, Bautista posted an .817 OPS a year prior, and hadn’t dipped below an .800 OPS since 2009. He’s been an MVP candidate, Silver Slugger, and an All-Star while being a bomber who can hold his own in the outfield. Bautista didn’t hit anyone last year, and he’s actually been a reverse splits guy (hitting righties better) for the past few seasons. At this juncture, Baustista’s bargaining chips are fading which could make him appealing if the right situation presents itself. Summarizing this Supplementing the Twins series as a whole, my ideal offseason includes the acquisition of a starter and two relievers. Beyond that, a second starter and a bench bat would follow suit in order of preference. The reality here is that the Twins are entering a period in which they should be able to make a sustained run at the postseason. The more ground work they do to support the internal developments that have been made, the more they stand to gain. We don’t need to see them break the bank, but we’ve embarked upon the “Go for it” moments of this thing, and there are actions that can be taken to reflect that.
  13. As the Rawlings Gold Glove Award winners were announced of the night of November 7th, Byron Buxton was a lock. Yes, there were surprises among the finalists, but it was a certainty that the Twins centerfielder would win his first. There wasn't going to be a Mauer-esque snub, or a Dozier-like surprise, Byron Buxton is the best centerfielder baseball currently has to offer. With the Gold Glove solidifying that belief as reality, the question now becomes, how many more follow it? To recap a bit, Buxton was nothing short of exceptional in the outfield for the Twins this season; you don't need sabermetrics to inform you of that. Looking at the numbers, he posted 24 DRS, a 9.9 UZR, 12.6 RngR, and a 13.1 UZR/150. In short, it was both his speed and his routes that made him the most impressive centerfielder in the game. Statcast (via Baseball Savant) came out with a new metric, Outs Above Average, for 2017 as well. Buxton's 25 OAA led all of baseball, and was also better than the total any other team (Rays 2nd with 23) could muster. For his efforts, Buxton's ability added 6 percent to expected catch percentages on balls hit his way. It seems that each time Statcast puts forth a new defensive metric, it's Buxton that finds himself at the top. The 26 four-star outs he recorded in 2017 were an MLB best, and the 92.9% conversion rate on those outs (26-28) were also tops in the major leagues. With a 30.2 ft/s sprint speed on the basepaths, Buxton has also taken the crown as the fastest player in The Show. You'll likely be looking for a while to find something he doesn't excel at in the field. Whether just watching him from afar, or taking a deeper dive into the advanced analytics, it's apparent that the kid from Baxley, GA is special. So, with one Gold Glove now is his trophy case, the question becomes how many join it? Knowing what we do at this moment about his career, and what we can project going forward, I think there's a couple places we can point to in making an educated guess. First and foremost, there's going to need to be a level of offense that follows Buxton's path. While the Gold Glove is a defensive award, Joe Mauer was left out for bigger offensive names, and Brian Dozier was included (and won) for his prowess with the bat. A guy like Buxton, so far beyond normal realms in the field, is going to be given more of a pass with his bat. For both the Twins and Buxton going forward though, the dish can't simply be a place where he punts. The good news is that a rebuilt swing under James Rowson has made it seem like that won't be the case. Buxton ended 2017 with a career best .728 OPS despite hitting below the Mendoza Line for the first two months of the year. Across his final 82 games of 2017, Buxton owned an .801 OPS with a .278 AVG and a .332 OBP. In a full season, those numbers elevate Buxton to All-Star status, with at least a couple of MVP votes along the way. For a guy that's hit at every level of his career, I think we've only begun to see the offensive production begin to blossom, and that's quite the comforting development. Outside of what Buxton can do in the field or at the plate, it will be integral for him to stay healthy as well. While there are times that routes are less than crisp, or closing speed allows for miraculous catches, the Twins centerfielder often finds himself acquainted with immobile objects. Finding a way to balance the ability to save games, but also not miss them will be a must as his career goes on. Outfield walls are far from forgiving, and missing stretches of play from crashing into them is hardly an ideal tradeoff. Some of Buxton's biggest highlights have included physical altercations with field dimensions, but he'll need to take care of himself from a longevity point of view. Finally, how much can Buxton unlock from his arm. With advanced metrics measuring all aspects of defensive output, Byron has an opportunity to push the envelope with his throwing ability. A strong arm that can touch the mid-90s, accuracy seemed to leave him at points during 2017. Whether throws sail up the line, or miss cutoffs in certain scenarios, cutting down runners with more pinpoint accuracy is only going to enhance his defensive offerings as a whole. Looking across the landscape of centerfielders, and specifically those that played for the Minnesota Twins, I'm comfortable putting Buxton Gold Glove over/under at nine. It's the same number that Torii Hunter won, and three more than Kirby Puckett tallied. As a betting man myself, I'll take the under, but only slightly. My fear is that Buxton's reckless abandon costs him time at some points during his career, and that will hold him back from putting up the counting stats. If healthy however, Buxton is easily the best centerfielder I've ever seen, and watching him reach double-digits in the Gold Glove department would be an absolute treat. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  14. With Major League Baseball free agency ready to get underway, general managers and organizations will begin pitching to players why they should sign with their respective teams. For the Twins, pitching will once again remain a focus, but for a team looking to take the next step, a nice offensive additional may not be a bad play. There's multiple options out there, but a former divisional foe should be the place they turn first. That guy is Carlos Santana. The former Cleveland Indians slugger is out on the open market, and while he'll almost certainly have a qualifying offer attached to him, it makes sense for a competitive organization to part with a draft pick for his services. The soon-to-be 32 year-old is coming off a season in which he posted an .818 OPS and launched 23 long balls for the Indians. Even if Derek Falvey didn't have previous Cleveland ties, a match here seems to make a lot of sense. Judging the Twins needs on offense, the most glaring area last year was a right-handed power bat. If that player could offer something on defense, that would only further the notion of it being a well-found pairing. Santana is a switch hitter, and while he hit righties better in 2017, he's been a tick better (.815 OPS vs .809 OPS) from the right side over the course of his career. Defensively, he's long since moved out from behind the plate, having not caught a game since 2014. Outside of a seven game stint in right-field during 2017, Santana has honed his craft at first base and designated hitter. While he can be a hitter only, serving as the Indians DH in 92 games during 2016, his first base abilities have generally led him to play the game with a glove at his disposal as well. Over the course of 140 games at first base this season, Santana was among the premium defenders at the position. He posted 10 DRS, a 4.8 UZR, and 1.4 RngR. While Eric Hosmer is a laughable inclusion among the Gold Glove finalists, Santana should be considered a real candidate to win the award along with Mitch Moreland. For Minnesota, the acquisition of Santana would likely make Robbie Grossman expendable. Whether or not the Twins tender a contract to the switch hitting outfielder, Grossman served as a capable bat in the DH role. For the club to take a step forward next season however, pushing for more than just an on-base machine would be a good practice. Grossman's .741 OPS wasn't the .828 mark he produced in 2016, but the .361 OBP was again respectable. However, he combined to hit just 20 homers over the past two seasons, and put up a total of just 41 doubles. In Santana, the Twins would be adding to a lineup that has already proven capable of winning games, and doing so without hurting their defense. Santana would be able to spell Joe Mauer at first base, giving the Twins two very good defensive options. Grossman's production would be expanded upon, and a guy like Kennys Vargas would no longer need to surface in the starting lineup. Santana has clubbed 57 homers over the past two seasons, while averaging over 20 in each full season of his career. Add to that the consistent doubles production of around 30 a season, and Minnesota would find themselves with some additional thump to the middle of the order. Along the lines of priority, I've suggested that the Twins add a starting pitcher and two relievers prior to adding a bat. In reality though, I think a productive offseason consists of each of those four acquisitions becoming a reality. Whether or not Santana is the first domino to fall or the last, it doesn't preclude the club from making the other necessary decisions to put their best foot forward for the 2018 season. At this point, the door for competitive baseball has begun to open for Minnesota, and as young players like Miguel Sano, Jose Berrios, and Byron Buxton continue to blossom, supplementing them with other proven threats is a must. The Indians are going to remain the team to beat in the AL Central, but counting the Twins out for the division and beyond is probably a foolish decision. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine can make this club even more of a contender by being aggressive as the time appears right. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  15. With profiles on two potential starting options in Lance Lynn and Tyler Chatwood down, we wrapped up the starting pitching potential with a trio of lesser arms. For the relief portion of this series, taking a dive into a group of arms all at once is the plan of action. The World Series is over, the offseason has begun, and the stove will begin to warm. Let’s get into it.Ideally, the Twins must address their bullpen this offseason. The reality is that relief pitchers either need to be incredibly good with their breaking pitches, or they need the ability to shove into the upper 90’s and blow the ball by hitters. Save for Ryan Pressly, Minnesota doesn’t have much in the form of flamethrowers. There are some options on the way, but bringing in a bullpen arm or two hardly sounds like a bad idea. So, if the Twins are starting with a guy who could make a splash, Bryan Shaw may be a good place to turn. Forget that he’s a former Cleveland Indian, and has a level of rapport with Derek Falvey. The reality is that he’s a very good pitcher, and one who could potentially close out games for the Twins. For the second straight year, Shaw saw an increase in his velocity, averaging around 95mph on his fastball. His 3.52 ERA wasn’t a career best this year, but the 2.96 FIP was. He’s been consistently around 8.0 K/0 or better, and has thrown at least 60 innings in every season since 2012. At 30 years old, there’s probably plenty of life left in his arm, and a multi-year deal would hardly be over-extending. Option number two comes in the former of sometimes closer Addison Reed. 29 during the 2018 season, Reed owns a 3.40 career ERA. Outside of a relatively abysmal time in Arizona, he’s actually been really good over the course of his seven-year big league career. A 9.5 K/9 would be more than welcome in the Twins pen, even with a velocity that sits a bit lower (around 92mph). Reed has plenty of experience under his belt, and worked as a solid late inning option for the Red Sox down the stretch in 2017. He has accumulated 125 career saves, and would give Minnesota another good option in relief regardless of whether he’s closing out games. Reed has posted 70 innings pitched in back to back seasons, while never throwing less than 55 in a year. Health and ability are there, and Reed seems another decent candidate for a multi-year option. Looking at a lefty addition, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine could look to a guy that just fell short in the World Series. Former Pirates closer Tony Watson was dealt to the Dodgers midway through 2017, and he’s been among the most consistent relievers in baseball for years. At 33 in 2018, he’ll have a bit of age creeping in against him, but the 2.75 ERA over the past three seasons is hardly a negative. Watson isn’t a big strikeout guy, at just 7.4 K/9. He does control counts however, with just a 2.5 BB/9 over the course of his career. Home runs have plagued him a bit more recently, and his FIP numbers don’t exactly jump off the page. At the right dollar amount though, he’s a substantial upgrade over some of the Twins current southpaw options, and he also has solid late inning experience. Rounding out the four-bagger of options is the first former starter of the group. Mike Minor dealt with injuries that sidelined him during the 2015 and 2016 seasons. After solely pitching in the National League, he resurfaced with the Royals for 2017. Making 65 appearances over 77.2 IP, he was a revelation. The 2.55 ERA was backed by a glowing 2.62 FIP and his 10.2 K/9 would be welcomed anywhere. Throwing around 91mph as a starter, Minor ramped things up to a 95mph average on his fastball this season in relief. Not only was he a horse out of the pen, but he was really, really good when called upon. The key with Minor is sustainability, and whether or not this was a one-year outlier. If there’s belief in the stuff going forward however, he’ll be just 30 next year, and could be the next out-of-nowhere stud in the pen. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are going to need to determine what internal options they believe in, either currently penciled in or coming through the system. It’s hardly a bad proposition though to bring in some strong options from outside to elevate the group as a whole. The Twins can’t be mediocre in starting roles and relief if they want to take the next step forward, and I’d imagine everyone involved is aware of that. Click here to view the article
  16. Ideally, the Twins must address their bullpen this offseason. The reality is that relief pitchers either need to be incredibly good with their breaking pitches, or they need the ability to shove into the upper 90’s and blow the ball by hitters. Save for Ryan Pressly, Minnesota doesn’t have much in the form of flamethrowers. There are some options on the way, but bringing in a bullpen arm or two hardly sounds like a bad idea. So, if the Twins are starting with a guy who could make a splash, Bryan Shaw may be a good place to turn. Forget that he’s a former Cleveland Indian, and has a level of rapport with Derek Falvey. The reality is that he’s a very good pitcher, and one who could potentially close out games for the Twins. For the second straight year, Shaw saw an increase in his velocity, averaging around 95mph on his fastball. His 3.52 ERA wasn’t a career best this year, but the 2.96 FIP was. He’s been consistently around 8.0 K/0 or better, and has thrown at least 60 innings in every season since 2012. At 30 years old, there’s probably plenty of life left in his arm, and a multi-year deal would hardly be over-extending. Option number two comes in the former of sometimes closer Addison Reed. 29 during the 2018 season, Reed owns a 3.40 career ERA. Outside of a relatively abysmal time in Arizona, he’s actually been really good over the course of his seven-year big league career. A 9.5 K/9 would be more than welcome in the Twins pen, even with a velocity that sits a bit lower (around 92mph). Reed has plenty of experience under his belt, and worked as a solid late inning option for the Red Sox down the stretch in 2017. He has accumulated 125 career saves, and would give Minnesota another good option in relief regardless of whether he’s closing out games. Reed has posted 70 innings pitched in back to back seasons, while never throwing less than 55 in a year. Health and ability are there, and Reed seems another decent candidate for a multi-year option. Looking at a lefty addition, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine could look to a guy that just fell short in the World Series. Former Pirates closer Tony Watson was dealt to the Dodgers midway through 2017, and he’s been among the most consistent relievers in baseball for years. At 33 in 2018, he’ll have a bit of age creeping in against him, but the 2.75 ERA over the past three seasons is hardly a negative. Watson isn’t a big strikeout guy, at just 7.4 K/9. He does control counts however, with just a 2.5 BB/9 over the course of his career. Home runs have plagued him a bit more recently, and his FIP numbers don’t exactly jump off the page. At the right dollar amount though, he’s a substantial upgrade over some of the Twins current southpaw options, and he also has solid late inning experience. Rounding out the four-bagger of options is the first former starter of the group. Mike Minor dealt with injuries that sidelined him during the 2015 and 2016 seasons. After solely pitching in the National League, he resurfaced with the Royals for 2017. Making 65 appearances over 77.2 IP, he was a revelation. The 2.55 ERA was backed by a glowing 2.62 FIP and his 10.2 K/9 would be welcomed anywhere. Throwing around 91mph as a starter, Minor ramped things up to a 95mph average on his fastball this season in relief. Not only was he a horse out of the pen, but he was really, really good when called upon. The key with Minor is sustainability, and whether or not this was a one-year outlier. If there’s belief in the stuff going forward however, he’ll be just 30 next year, and could be the next out-of-nowhere stud in the pen. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are going to need to determine what internal options they believe in, either currently penciled in or coming through the system. It’s hardly a bad proposition though to bring in some strong options from outside to elevate the group as a whole. The Twins can’t be mediocre in starting roles and relief if they want to take the next step forward, and I’d imagine everyone involved is aware of that.
  17. He started throwing today, he’ll be back at some point. Also, yuck, no.
  18. His season didn't start until June, and he didn't get to Triple-A until late that month. He did put together a nice year though for the most part, and I would've promoted him for September.
  19. In 2017, one of the greatest deficiencies for the Minnesota Twins was the lack of quality relief pitching. While the starting rotation left plenty to be desired on its own, it was the bullpen that generally provided little in the way of resistance when tasked to come in and back up a start. Minnesota needs to address that this offseason, but what if they don't look anywhere but within? Over the course of the early offseason, I've considered plenty of different ways the Twins could spend their dollars and roster openings. I'd argue that a starting pitcher is a must (with a second having a decent amount of potential). A right handed bat, with some positional flexibility could be a nice add as well. Initially, my thought was that the Twins would be best served to bring in two relief options, but what if they shifted to add no one at all. Currently, the 40 man roster has 17 relievers on it. Those players will be shifted in the coming weeks as some will be reinstated, others will become free agents, some will be DFA'd, and one may even retire. Looking at that group, and what isn't on the 40 man however, the Twins glaring need may be less significant than one would imagine. Starting with one of the most missed pieces from 2016, Trevor May re-enters the fold for the 2018 season. He'll have missed a year due to Tommy John surgery, and he'll need to work back towards what he was. However, out of the bullpen, his 12.7 K/9 was elite, and while the 3.6 BB/9 wasn't ideal, it was the longball that bit him. I'm not sure if May's back issues will allow him to be a full time reliever, but if he can get right in the pen, he could definitely be a weapon for Paul Molitor. Joining May on the reinstatement train from the 60-day DL is J.T. Chargois. Had he been healthy in 2017, it's all but guaranteed he would've recorded a few save opportunities. He's got the stuff that should play as a big league closer, and there's real velocity there. Chargois is among the many touted relief options from the Twins prospect lists over the past few years, and seeing him bear fruit would be a welcomed addition. Rounding out the trio of guys on the 60-day DL is Ryan O'Rourke. Unlike Chargois, velocity is hardly O'Rourke's game, but he's lethal against lefties. The southpaw held opposing lefties to a .359 OPS in 2016, and was definitely missed by the Minnesota bullpen this year. There's other guys that have stepped in during his absence, but if used correctly in relief, O'Rourke could put up some really flashy numbers. Outside of those returning from injuries, options like Gabriel Moya and Randy Rosario were given a taste of the highest level this season. Moya has had significant success on the farm, and Rosario has flashed plus stuff in relief as well. Whether they are given a shot, and stick like Alan Busenitz and Trevor Hildenberger remains to be seen however. Venturing from the 40 man roster, the Twins have a couple of high ceiling options that have yet to reach their projections. First and foremost, Tyler Jay enters the picture. Having been drafted as a reliever, converted to a starter, and now working in relief again, the former first round pick could turn out to be a weapon. Velocity rises in short bursts, and he's put up solid performances throughout his Arizona Fall League action this year. Minnesota may not be ready to give up on him as a starter yet, but if he's healthy, getting him to help the big league club in whatever way possible is a must. The duo of Jake Reed and Nick Burdi were once the next best thing coming to the Twins pen, and their steam has somewhat cooled. While Burdi missed all year due to Tommy John surgery, Reed started late and never was able to get his footing. Both throw gas and have a keen ability to miss bats. There's nothing the Twins need more than the ideal version of these two pitching in the late innings for them. Should Reed and Burdi breakthrough this season, it could arguably the greatest offseason pickup for the big league club. By my count, there's at least eight internal options vying for a spot, and each of them have significant upside. With something like three or four relief spots likely claimed already, that provides plenty of competition to fight things out. That being said, each of the aforementioned names come with serious question marks. The Twins will have to decide if they are willing to commit to a player potentially blocking an internal option, or if they believe in some of the names above to break through. During free agency, the best relief names aren't going to be actively seeking out one year deals. The hope would be that the organization would aim higher than a Matt Belisle type if they're going to bring someone in, but there's lots of caveats that come with such a move. It's certain that the hometown nine needs some bullpen help, but navigating how to go about getting it is anyone's guess. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  20. On Monday June 8, 2015 the Houston Astros franchise changed. Really, every franchise across Major League Baseball changed as they added an influx of new talent through the First-Year player draft. Houston though, selected a shortstop from LSU with the second overall pick, and Alex Bregman set forth on a path that would greatly enhance the Astros future. In this same draft, the Twins would select 6th overall. Following the selections of three collegiate players and two high-schoolers, they chose left-handed pitcher Tyler Jay. While Jay had served only as a closer at the University of Illinois, the thought was that he could be developed into a top tier starter for Minnesota. It was considered somewhat of a puzzling pick at the time, and Jay has yet to bear fruit at the big league level. That said, the jury isn't out on him yet, but that also isn't the story here. The 2015 draft had plenty of talent throughout that first round. Dansby Swanson led a strong Braves system for some time, Brendan Rodgers looks the part of a game-changer for the Rockies, and Andrew Benintendi would've been the American League Rookie of the Year had Aaron Judge not existed. All of those things are true, but the focus here is on Bregman, his position, and how he ties into the Minnesota Twins. Drafted as a shortstop out of Louisiana State, Bregman entered an organization that employed a 20 year-old Rookie of the Year named Carlos Correa. While Correa is a bigger shortstop at 6'4" 215 lbs, he's handled the position just fine defensively, and his .863 OPS is an incredible asset at one of baseball's most demanding positions. The Astros though weren't only rich in terms of Correa up the middle, there was a glut of options. Jose Altuve is going to hold down second base until he retires, and the combination of Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Villar both looked more than capable for Houston. In 2016, Bregman played in 49 games for Houston, spending just a total of 146 games on the farm. His .891 OPS at the minor league level was more than suggestive of a new challenge. At the big league level, Bregman debuted with a .791 OPS that was bolstered by strong slugging numbers. The K/BB ratio (52/15) left plenty to be desired, and both his average (.264) and OBP (.313) sagged because of it. With so much raw talent however, the belief was that 2017 could represent a breakout year. After a spring training that included time with Team USA during the World Baseball Classic, Bregman was set to be the Astros every day third basemen. Recently acquired Yuli Gurriel would move to first, and the Houston infield was set. In 155 games this season, Bregman posted an .827 OPS and turned in a respectable 2:1 K/BB rate (97/55). His average and OBP jumped significantly, and he became yet another asset for the Astros. Drafted as a shortstop, he played third, short, and second base in Houston during 2017. Looking at the Astros top 30 prospects as ranked by MLB.com currently, their 12th, 17th, and 24th best players are all shortstops. Despite having arguably the best infield in baseball, there's still talent behind them. This is where the Twins correlation comes into play. With plenty of talk regarding the selection of Royce Lewis with the #1 overall pick this season, Minnesota now boasts shortstops with it's #1, 2, 5, and 26 best prospects per MLB.com. The idea that there is a need to figure out where the can all play becomes immediately laughable. What Bregman and the Astros have once again displayed, is that talent can slot in anywhere. More often than not, shortstops and centerfielders are among the best players on a 25 man roster. Minnesota boasts an elite centerfielder in Byron Buxton, but there's plenty of room for a talent rich farm system to bear fruit at the next level. Lewis, Nick Gordon, Wander Javier, Jermaine Palacios, Luis Arraez, and Jelfry Marte all working out for the Twins would be among the best problems to have. Although there's only room for one person to play shortstop at a time, generating a 25 man roster with the best overall talent you possess is a great blueprint for success. At some point, Minnesota will need to figure out how Jorge Polanco, Brian Dozier, Nick Gordon, and Royce Lewis can all coexist. There's a second wave of talent behind them that can factor in soon enough as well. While that is something Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will be tasked with deciphering, it's hardly a problem that the Twins would rather not have. Entering the 2015 Major League Baseball draft, Alex Bregman probably had dreams of making a deep jump throw from the hole a la Derek Jeter. When he was taken by the Astros, he probably considered the current state of the infield being locked down up the middle for some time to come. On October 30th 2017 however, he's got dreams of two incredible throws to home from the hot corner, and a World Series ring well within his sights. Drafting for talent will never hurt you in baseball, and both the Astros and Twins would love to have a plethora of Alex Bregman's lined up to fill a spot. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  21. Recker is not on the 40 man. None of those other minor leaguers are guys you want exposed to waivers.
  22. My preference, and that will be flushed out further as I go through RP and offensive additions, is to add one SP, 2 RP, and a bat. A second SP would be gravy, and probably not necessary. Depending on the price tag, Lynn is the most interesting to me. For less money, give me Chatwood or Cobb. The final two are merely guys that seem worth considering, but I’d ultimately pass on.
  23. Continuing with the series on supplementing the Twins this offseason, we’ll wrap up the starting pitching category. So far, both Lance Lynn and Tyler Chatwood have been considered. With the idea that it would be good for Minnesota to bring in a starting option or two, it’s never a bad idea to have a relatively lengthy list of names.In looking at the final three pitching names, a certain level of brevity will be used. Given that both Lynn and Chatwood seem to be a bit better fit on the surface, the following trio would be nice complementary pieces to one of the top two options. Without any further explanation though, let’s get into it. Alex Cobb He turned 30 years old on October 7, and has exactly 700 big league innings under his belt. Through 115 starts, he owns a career 3.50 ERA and has compiled a 7.3K/9 to go with a 2.6 BB/9. Cobb missed the 2015 season due to Tommy John surgery, and made just five starts in 2016. This season however, he posted a serviceable 3.66 ERA and 4.16 FIP in his first “healthy” year since 2014. At one time, having looked like another darling of the Rays staff, Cobb is now well past the 2.82 ERA he posted across 49 starts in 2013-14. After making $4.2 million last season, he’ll enter free agency for the first time. With the opportunity to sign his first lengthy deal, the Twins could land a more-than-capable guy for the rotation. Throughout his career, Cobb has a relatively pedestrian strikeout rate. That said, he limits walks and has induced ground balls over 50% of the time. Home run rates have been in check, and this past season was really the first time he’s served up more than 1.0 HR/9. Working in the low 90’s, he’s a pitcher who works for his outs, and the sinker/curveball combination is one he utilizes often. I don’t know if Cobb can get back to his early career success. Injuries have taken place, and age is against him. That said, the floor is pretty safe here, and the ceiling may be ripe for the picking. Jhoulys Chacin After pitching the first six seasons of his big league career in Colorado, Jhoulys Chacin bounced around the big leagues a bit. With stops in Arizona, Atlanta, Los Angeles (AL), and San Diego, he’ll be joining his fifth team in the past four years. Over the course of 32 starts for the Padres in 2017, Chacin owned a 3.89 ERA with a 4.26 FIP and a 7.6 K/9 with a 3.6 BB/9. Those numbers, especially playing half your games at Petco, don’t make you jump up and down. Command jumps out as an issue, and in a pitcher’s park you’d like to see a better FIP number. Looking for positives, Chacin made just $1.75 million last season, and should be able to be had relatively cheaply. He’ll also be only 30 years old, and likely has plenty of juice left in the tank. Although he doesn’t generate quite as many groundballs as Cobb, Chacin also tends to give up fewer home runs. In 2017, Chacin was mainly a fastball/slider pitcher, mixing in the occasional curveball and changeup. His stuff sits low 90s, and his swinging strike rate has hovered around 8.0% for most of the past seven years. He’s far from flashy, but if the Twins are looking for a low-cost arm to round out the starting rotation, they could look in his direction. Andrew Cashner Finally, and in somewhat of a flipping-the-script move, we take a look at Andrew Cashner. The oldest and most expensive of this group, Cashner will be 31 in 2018 and made $10 million on a one year deal with the Rangers last season. Across 28 starts, he compiled a 3.40 ERA along with an incredibly odd 4.6 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. Long the darling of many writers, Cashner’s allure has never been alluring to me. There’s a decent amount to like here, but we’ve just never seen it all come together. His 3.80 ERA over the course of his career is just fine, but there have been plenty of mediocre seasons sprinkled in between good ones. Whether or not he takes a step forward or back is anyone’s guess. Despite striking no one out, and walking too many batters in 2017, Cashner kept the ball in the yard. Playing home games in Texas, that’s a pretty tough task and he’s to be commended for that. The fastball is his pitch of choice, and he relies on secondary offerings of a slider, curveball and changeup almost equally. Despite once being an upper 90’s hurler, he’s since settle into the mid-90s at this latter half of his career. Compared to the other two options, Cashner is the greatest wildcard. The strikeout and walk numbers a season ago were baffling, and not getting hurt more with them also leaves plenty of room for exposure. With velocity on his side however, he might have the ability to unlock more value. In my thinking, signing someone like Lynn or Chatwood, along with one of this trio, seem to be intriguing options. Cobb represents the guy I’d most trust, and Cashner is probably the biggest flier. For the price, Chacin has appeal of his own as well. If you’re taking a look at it, how do you see them stacking up? Check back next week as we move to the relief side of supplementing the Twins. Click here to view the article
  24. In looking at the final three pitching names, a certain level of brevity will be used. Given that both Lynn and Chatwood seem to be a bit better fit on the surface, the following trio would be nice complementary pieces to one of the top two options. Without any further explanation though, let’s get into it. Alex Cobb He turned 30 years old on October 7, and has exactly 700 big league innings under his belt. Through 115 starts, he owns a career 3.50 ERA and has compiled a 7.3K/9 to go with a 2.6 BB/9. Cobb missed the 2015 season due to Tommy John surgery, and made just five starts in 2016. This season however, he posted a serviceable 3.66 ERA and 4.16 FIP in his first “healthy” year since 2014. At one time, having looked like another darling of the Rays staff, Cobb is now well past the 2.82 ERA he posted across 49 starts in 2013-14. After making $4.2 million last season, he’ll enter free agency for the first time. With the opportunity to sign his first lengthy deal, the Twins could land a more-than-capable guy for the rotation. Throughout his career, Cobb has a relatively pedestrian strikeout rate. That said, he limits walks and has induced ground balls over 50% of the time. Home run rates have been in check, and this past season was really the first time he’s served up more than 1.0 HR/9. Working in the low 90’s, he’s a pitcher who works for his outs, and the sinker/curveball combination is one he utilizes often. I don’t know if Cobb can get back to his early career success. Injuries have taken place, and age is against him. That said, the floor is pretty safe here, and the ceiling may be ripe for the picking. Jhoulys Chacin After pitching the first six seasons of his big league career in Colorado, Jhoulys Chacin bounced around the big leagues a bit. With stops in Arizona, Atlanta, Los Angeles (AL), and San Diego, he’ll be joining his fifth team in the past four years. Over the course of 32 starts for the Padres in 2017, Chacin owned a 3.89 ERA with a 4.26 FIP and a 7.6 K/9 with a 3.6 BB/9. Those numbers, especially playing half your games at Petco, don’t make you jump up and down. Command jumps out as an issue, and in a pitcher’s park you’d like to see a better FIP number. Looking for positives, Chacin made just $1.75 million last season, and should be able to be had relatively cheaply. He’ll also be only 30 years old, and likely has plenty of juice left in the tank. Although he doesn’t generate quite as many groundballs as Cobb, Chacin also tends to give up fewer home runs. In 2017, Chacin was mainly a fastball/slider pitcher, mixing in the occasional curveball and changeup. His stuff sits low 90s, and his swinging strike rate has hovered around 8.0% for most of the past seven years. He’s far from flashy, but if the Twins are looking for a low-cost arm to round out the starting rotation, they could look in his direction. Andrew Cashner Finally, and in somewhat of a flipping-the-script move, we take a look at Andrew Cashner. The oldest and most expensive of this group, Cashner will be 31 in 2018 and made $10 million on a one year deal with the Rangers last season. Across 28 starts, he compiled a 3.40 ERA along with an incredibly odd 4.6 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. Long the darling of many writers, Cashner’s allure has never been alluring to me. There’s a decent amount to like here, but we’ve just never seen it all come together. His 3.80 ERA over the course of his career is just fine, but there have been plenty of mediocre seasons sprinkled in between good ones. Whether or not he takes a step forward or back is anyone’s guess. Despite striking no one out, and walking too many batters in 2017, Cashner kept the ball in the yard. Playing home games in Texas, that’s a pretty tough task and he’s to be commended for that. The fastball is his pitch of choice, and he relies on secondary offerings of a slider, curveball and changeup almost equally. Despite once being an upper 90’s hurler, he’s since settle into the mid-90s at this latter half of his career. Compared to the other two options, Cashner is the greatest wildcard. The strikeout and walk numbers a season ago were baffling, and not getting hurt more with them also leaves plenty of room for exposure. With velocity on his side however, he might have the ability to unlock more value. In my thinking, signing someone like Lynn or Chatwood, along with one of this trio, seem to be intriguing options. Cobb represents the guy I’d most trust, and Cashner is probably the biggest flier. For the price, Chacin has appeal of his own as well. If you’re taking a look at it, how do you see them stacking up? Check back next week as we move to the relief side of supplementing the Twins.
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