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Everything posted by Ted Schwerzler
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I'd be more bullish on Santana and Dozier than Kintzler. Being a free agent, I'd go get whatever you can for Kintzler. Both Santana and Dozier can help what should be a playoff worthy team next year. If you want to explore trading them, they'll still have value this winter, and next summer as well.
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As the 2017 trade deadline quick approaches, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in what amounts to a less than enviable situation. Despite losing a franchise record 103 games a year ago, the turnaround has put them near the top of the AL Central. At 49-50 on July 26, they find themselves 4.5 games back in the division race. That makes decision making that much more critical. Thus far, the Twins have suggested they will be buyers of long term assets, yet their only move has been to acquire two month rental, Jaime Garcia. The aforementioned Garcia gives the club a nice starting boost while surrendering Huascar Ynoa doesn't hurt them to any real extent. While the trade in and of itself doesn't hurt the club, it doesn't signify any real stance on how they'll approach the rest of the year. Beginning on July 26, 30 of the Twins final 64 games come against teams with losing records. The bulk of that competition hails from the AL Central, thanks to poor efforts from the White Sox and Tigers. They do get the Athletics, Blue Jays, and Padres down the stretch as well, so there's plenty of opportunities for wins. On the flip side of that coin, both the Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals have a similar amount of divisional games left. Despite the exciting results thus far in 2017, the realistic expectation is that this current Twins club isn't a playoff contender. There's always an argument to be made that going for it when the opportunity presents itself makes sense; after all, anything can happen if you can simply get in. For Paul Molitor's club though, it's virtually division championship or bust. The hometown nine is currently three games out of the second Wild Card, and the Yankees aren't going anywhere. They'd need to be better than the Royals, Rays, and Mariners to be a real player for that final entry into a one-game playoff. As the rest of the trade landscape takes place, Minnesota finds themselves in an enviable position even if they stand pat. The club is bolstered by a young contingent of players that are under team control, and can be counted on to contribute, for many years to come. A lineup with Sano, Kepler, and Buxton seems to be one that will continually be run out year after year. Wading in the middle ground, the Twins have some expendable assets. They could probably garner some sort of return for the likes of Ervin Santana, Brian Dozier and Brandon Kintzler. Of that group, only Kintzler is a free agent after the year, and the former two are likely unaffected trade-wise if dealt over the winter. Right now, the reality for Minnesota is that their internal core is one that already exists. At this point, taking the next step has to come from supplementation. By spending on a couple of free agents, whether through the rotation or the lineup, the Twins 25 man can rise to the next level. There isn't that next top tier prospect ready to provide an immediate impact, and allowing the group to be bolstered by a credible big leaguer or two is something that could put the current contingent over the top. The fact of the matter is that the middle ground isn't an entirely enviable place to be. Fans void of a winner for some time will be clamoring for the club to make a realistic run. Sacrificing what 2018 appears to be doesn't seem like a solid tradeoff. Playing good teams like the Dodgers, will expose the Twins as the lopsided run differential club they are, but they'll have plenty of wins to grab the rest of the way. Expect an up and down final couple of months, but know that 2017 isn't the spectacle you've been waiting for. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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When trying to set up a major league team for success over the course of a 162 game season, depth is something that every organization strives to possess. Sometimes however, depth becomes a clogging glut of similarity, and ends up being a detriment when trying to push the needle. Right now, the Minnesota Twins could find themselves in that category. The revolving door has continued on the mound, and there doesn't appear to be an end in sight. After making his second start for the Twins, Bartolo Colon was given another opportunity to take a turn. Despite reports that he was mulling retirement, the bigger issue is that the results were less than lackluster. In two turns for Minnesota, Colon has fared poorly the second time through the lineup. He's allowed opposing hitters to go 8-19 with a triple, two home runs, and three RBI. Despite both starts coming against great offenses (Yankees and Dodgers), Colon hasn't shown any ability to be reliable. The problem for Minnesota, is that the depth behind him provides lackluster alternatives. Kyle Gibson was recently optioned back to Triple-A Rochester. It comes on the heels of seven shutout innings against the Tigers, but is the result of a poor 6.08 ERA on the year. Gibson hasn't taken the assumed steps forward, and while he's flashed ability at times, has struggle more often than not. Right now, he's probably a better option than Colon, but that's arguably splitting hairs. Going down the line takes Minnesota to Hector Santiago, who's currently on the disabled list. While the severity of his injury isn't known, the reality is that he wasn't good before being placed there. Santiago owns a 5.63 ERA across 14 starts and has given the club consistently poor starts. He'll likely be reinserted into the rotation at some point, unless of course the Twins want to eat his remaining salary and DFA him. In acquiring Jaime Garcia from the Atlanta Braves, Minnesota gives themselves a realistic fourth option. Being able to pair him with Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios, and Adalberto Mejia, they have another arm that they can count on giving the ball to every fifth day. The problem that continues to remain however, is depth that really provides no solutions. Whether Colon, Gibson, or Santiago is run out there, none of the trio should be given turns at this point. Because depth has essentially boiled down to warm bodies, the Twins don't have much to gain in starts from any of them. At some point the organization could turn the keys over to the likes of top prospects Stephen Gonsalves or Fernando Romero, but it doesn't appear like that move is on the immediate horizon. Over the course of 2017, the back of the rotation has been handled by giving opportunities to dart throws. Everyone from Adam Wilk to Nick Tepesch has gotten their turn, and the results have been virtually as expected. It's a pretty big ask for any big league club to have lights out starters even at the bottom of their rotation. Every team needs pitching and that's why it's always overpaid and at a premium. However, for Minnesota, the depth has resulted in a group of guys being cycled through one after another. For a team that's been in the thick of a division race, they've been in a spot where giving up a loss every fifth day is nearly the expectation. At some point, you'd hope that depth has some upside. While the season wears on into the end of the summer, Minnesota will need to do everything they can to grasp at whatever playoff hopes they may have. Prospects don't always come up and blossom right away, and even the established veteran is far from a guaranteed thing. The Twins have lulled themselves into believing depth is adequate however, when nothing they run out there gives them any better chance to compete. Having depth with some reasonable upside is one thing, but simply putting names on a roster isn't an equivalent scenario. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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Whether looking at the 25 man roster as it sits currently, or how it will be constructed a year from now, the Minnesota Twins have opportunity through their bench. In winning more games against other big league clubs, the goal needs to be raising the water level of your weakest link. For Paul Molitor's club, there's some ample opportunity for growth. On July 24, the Twins employ a bench of three players. Due to the extra (and frankly unnecessary) bullpen arm, the reserves rotate between a group of Eduardo Escobar, Chris Gimenez, Ehire Adrianza, Robbie Grossman, and Jorge Polanco. While none of those players are a black hole, the group itself has plenty that can be worked on. Looking at the starting roster, there's probable cause for each player to be a relative mainstay for the immediate future. Save for the shortstop and DH roles which are aided by the rotating bench, Minnesota virtually has their lineup claimed. In working towards a better overall talent level, a new bench construction could be a strong place to start. Of the four aforementioned players, Polanco is the one that sticks out. He's a guy that hasn't owned an OPS south of .600 since he was 16 in the Dominican Summer League. His bat was his calling card for the majors, and while his defense was above-average to start the year, that's regressed to more expected results. Now with a .578 OPS and out of options, the Twins are forced to stash him and allow the 23 year old to work through his problems at the highest level. Ideally you'd like him to go back to Triple-A and iron things out, but his spot isn't necessarily an egregious bench usage. As a fourth outfielder and designated hitter, Robbie Grossman drew rave reviews through the early part of the season. He's a patient hitter that forces a pitcher to throw strikes, and he simply gets on base. Over the past 33 games however, he owns just a .218/.321/.286 slash line. The .607 OPS is bolstered by no power, and he's contributed just eight extra base hits. Not being able to play an average level of outfield defense, there's plenty more to ask from a designated hitter. Grossman was a great story in 2016 owning an .828 OPS in 99 G, but the regression has set in and he's slipped well off that mark. Maybe most valuable of the group is Eduardo Escobar. Experiencing somewhat of a breakout in 2015, Escobar owns a career best .768 OPS this season. He's not a great defender, but being average at three positions around the diamond makes him an asset. His nine homers are the second most in his career (12 in 2015), and he's become a much more significant on-base threat (as witnessed by the career best .328 OBP). If you're filling out a bench, Escobar is the ideal candidate to take a spot. I had questions early on in 2017 as to whether or not Ehire Adrianza and Escobar could coexist. They offer virtually the same thing, with Adrianza being a whiz with the glove despite not hitting at all. Getting into 32 games for Minnesota, Adrianza has a career best .766 OPS. He doesn't generate any power, but he's been good for a timely single when needed. On a three man bench however, a backup catcher and Adrianza taking up two of the spots can be costly. Even in a four man rotation, having near identical players in Escobar and Adrianza seems to drop the ball a bit. That takes us to the backup catcher in Chris Gimenez. A natural clubhouse leader, Gimenez has posted a .689 OPS on the year. It's his best mark since 2015, and second highest total of his career. While that's great for him, the offensive production in that role is virtually non-existent. Gimenez has been average at best behind the dish, and that may warrant Minnesota looking elsewhere. Whether or not the Twins make any significant moves in 2017 or not, there's positions to be had on the big club. Mitch Garver seems an immediate boost over Gimenez giving the club plenty in terms of flexibility as well. There isn't a great argument to be made internally when looking at replacing Adrianza, but it stands to reason that a trio of middling infielders all rotating may be wasting a spot. Maybe Zack Granite can chip into Grossman's necessity, but that remains a slow play at best. Going into 2018, there's room for Minnesota to add offensively. While the bulk of the lineup may be set, and for quite a while, outside help could grab a few extra wins. Having additional firepower in reserve, and knowing it's more than just a placeholder, puts a club in a very good spot. While the 2017 Twins have surprised, the core of a solid team is there, with areas of improvement to take things to the next level. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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The Next Twins Bat Is Ready
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
I don't see much of a downside to DFA'ing Gimenez either. Obviously there's the wrinkle that both Falvey and Levine have had him on team previously and respect him quite a bit. He's been a clear downgrade from Castro defensively though, and while he seems like a great guy, that's a place you can make your roster better. -
Going into 2017, arguably the biggest question mark for the Minnesota Twins was on the mound. Who could be counted upon in the starting rotation? Who would take the ball in relief? With no real moves made to bulk up either corps, there could have been cause for panic. However, the Twins have flipped the script on an old narrative.This summer, Minnesota finds themselves in the thick of a hotly contested race for the AL Central title. Thank in part to overachievement on their end, and underwhelming results from the Cleveland Indians, Paul Molitor’s club remains on the heels of the division leader. Down the stretch it will be pitching that ends up being the difference maker. Over the course of the past few weeks, the Twins will have acquired two-fifths of the Atlanta Braves starting rotation. With Bartolo Colon being joined by Jaime Garcia, Minnesota has welcomed two National League pitchers. Despite a generally accepted downtick in moving from the National to American League, both pitchers find solace in what the Twins have to offer. First, Colon came over to the Twins after spurning the Mets, a club he had previously played for. Noting the ability to compete for a postseason berth, Colon stood to improve upon his 2017 showing. With an ERA north of 8.00 for Atlanta, the once heralded strike thrower has apparently abandoned his pinpoint accuracy. After owning an MLB best 58% zone rate (pitches thrown in zone) a season ago, he’d dipped all the way to 49% this season. While Baseball Prospectus’ numbers help to highlight inefficiency this season for Colon, they also may signify a roster deficiency he was affected by. In 2016 pitching for the Mets, both Rene Rivera and Travis d’Arnaud found themselves graded favorably by StatCorner’s oStr% (pitches out of the zone called strikes) as well as calls generated. Conversely, Kurt Suzuki (now the Braves catcher) ranked among the league’s worst. He’s continued to be a poor receiver in 2017, albeit not to the extent of a year ago. It should be noted however that battery mate, Tyler Flowers does grade out well. Although what happens behind the plate is just a small part of pitching, it’s understandably part of the equation. For Colon, and maybe more importantly the recently acquired Jaime Garcia, defense comes into play as well. A season ago, the Twins -49 DRS (defensive runs saved) ranked as the third worst mark in all of baseball. The club also owned the third lowest UZR (ultimate zone rating). Not only did they not make good baseball plays, but the club also was unable to track down and convert balls in play into outs. Fast-forward to 2017, and Minnesota finds themselves eighth in DRS (18) and 11th (8.5) in UZR. The uptick has created a stark contrast year over year. Despite not addressing pitching this offseason, the Twins did take it upon themselves to improve in a different way. While much was made about Jason Castro’s pitch framing behind the plate, his overall impact can’t be overstated. Yes, he’s an above average receiver, but he also calls a strong game and represents a monumental swing from what the Twins employed in the past. In bringing Castro into the fold, the Twins helped their pitchers behind the dish, and it is the maturation of their youth that has helped in the field. Miguel Sano brings up the rear of the club being worth -8 DRS at the hot corner, but Jorge Polanco being average (0 DRS) at SS has been a massive boost. Byron Buxton paces all big league center fielders with 18 DRS, and trails only the Red Sox Mookie Betts (24 DRS) among outfielders. Pairing him on a nightly basis with Max Kepler (5 DRS) only strengthens the outfield. Throw in Joe Mauer currently the best defensive first basemen not named Brandon Belt, and you’ve got a solid situation. As a whole, the Twins decided to overlook pitching for the most part. What they’ve done instead is raise the level of the pitchers they do employ by making sure everything else is at a higher level. Thanks in part to the defense Minnesota has constructed around the mound, the organization now is in a place to offer that as a selling point to prospective hurlers in the coming months. Whether or not the Twins sign or deal for any names over the offseason, they have one heck of a sales pitch to make. Is there always going to be some level of uncertainty when it comes to a guy with a bloated ERA from the opposite league, or coming off some sort of injury? Absolutely. On the flip side though, there’s also a very real notion that because of the infrastructure the Twins have in place, they offer the opportunity to make any newcomers better. Whether that guy is an ace of another staff or not, it stands to reason that the eight supporting cast members on the diamond are finally a selling point for Minnesota. Click here to view the article
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- minnesota twins
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This summer, Minnesota finds themselves in the thick of a hotly contested race for the AL Central title. Thank in part to overachievement on their end, and underwhelming results from the Cleveland Indians, Paul Molitor’s club remains on the heels of the division leader. Down the stretch it will be pitching that ends up being the difference maker. Over the course of the past few weeks, the Twins will have acquired two-fifths of the Atlanta Braves starting rotation. With Bartolo Colon being joined by Jaime Garcia, Minnesota has welcomed two National League pitchers. Despite a generally accepted downtick in moving from the National to American League, both pitchers find solace in what the Twins have to offer. First, Colon came over to the Twins after spurning the Mets, a club he had previously played for. Noting the ability to compete for a postseason berth, Colon stood to improve upon his 2017 showing. With an ERA north of 8.00 for Atlanta, the once heralded strike thrower has apparently abandoned his pinpoint accuracy. After owning an MLB best 58% zone rate (pitches thrown in zone) a season ago, he’d dipped all the way to 49% this season. While Baseball Prospectus’ numbers help to highlight inefficiency this season for Colon, they also may signify a roster deficiency he was affected by. In 2016 pitching for the Mets, both Rene Rivera and Travis d’Arnaud found themselves graded favorably by StatCorner’s oStr% (pitches out of the zone called strikes) as well as calls generated. Conversely, Kurt Suzuki (now the Braves catcher) ranked among the league’s worst. He’s continued to be a poor receiver in 2017, albeit not to the extent of a year ago. It should be noted however that battery mate, Tyler Flowers does grade out well. Although what happens behind the plate is just a small part of pitching, it’s understandably part of the equation. For Colon, and maybe more importantly the recently acquired Jaime Garcia, defense comes into play as well. A season ago, the Twins -49 DRS (defensive runs saved) ranked as the third worst mark in all of baseball. The club also owned the third lowest UZR (ultimate zone rating). Not only did they not make good baseball plays, but the club also was unable to track down and convert balls in play into outs. Fast-forward to 2017, and Minnesota finds themselves eighth in DRS (18) and 11th (8.5) in UZR. The uptick has created a stark contrast year over year. Despite not addressing pitching this offseason, the Twins did take it upon themselves to improve in a different way. While much was made about Jason Castro’s pitch framing behind the plate, his overall impact can’t be overstated. Yes, he’s an above average receiver, but he also calls a strong game and represents a monumental swing from what the Twins employed in the past. In bringing Castro into the fold, the Twins helped their pitchers behind the dish, and it is the maturation of their youth that has helped in the field. Miguel Sano brings up the rear of the club being worth -8 DRS at the hot corner, but Jorge Polanco being average (0 DRS) at SS has been a massive boost. Byron Buxton paces all big league center fielders with 18 DRS, and trails only the Red Sox Mookie Betts (24 DRS) among outfielders. Pairing him on a nightly basis with Max Kepler (5 DRS) only strengthens the outfield. Throw in Joe Mauer currently the best defensive first basemen not named Brandon Belt, and you’ve got a solid situation. As a whole, the Twins decided to overlook pitching for the most part. What they’ve done instead is raise the level of the pitchers they do employ by making sure everything else is at a higher level. Thanks in part to the defense Minnesota has constructed around the mound, the organization now is in a place to offer that as a selling point to prospective hurlers in the coming months. Whether or not the Twins sign or deal for any names over the offseason, they have one heck of a sales pitch to make. Is there always going to be some level of uncertainty when it comes to a guy with a bloated ERA from the opposite league, or coming off some sort of injury? Absolutely. On the flip side though, there’s also a very real notion that because of the infrastructure the Twins have in place, they offer the opportunity to make any newcomers better. Whether that guy is an ace of another staff or not, it stands to reason that the eight supporting cast members on the diamond are finally a selling point for Minnesota.
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As the summer has drug on, the Minnesota Twins have been noted to need some right handed hitting help. Whether the roster is constructed with eight relievers, or the more efficient seven, a boost could be given to the 25 man with a strong hitter on the right side of the plate. For quite some time, Mitch Garver has made a case to be that guy, and it's time to take notice. Thus far this season, Kennys Vargas has been shuttled between Triple-A Rochester and the big leagues six times. He's often been the guy sent down when a spot is needed, and he's been the easy choice with his production lacking. While the home run power is obvious, Vargas has posted a .723 OPS in 176 at bats, but owns just a .291 OBP in 2017. He has hit eight long balls, but his 54/10 K/BB ratio continues to drag him down. Add in the fact that he's been well below average defensively, and Minnesota simply can't find a reason to carry him. If there's an opportunity for a new name the next time the big club decides to make a move, it's absolutely worth considering Garver. A 9th round pick in the 2013 MLB Draft, Mitch Garver has predominantly been a catcher in the Twins system. This season at Triple-A, he's branched out to playing first base and left field more often, only expanding his flexibility. Behind the dish, he's at worst an average receiver, and he's consistently thrown out one-third of would-be base stealers in his time as a pro. Garver started to gain some real intrigue after a strong second season as a professional with Cedar Rapids. Postin an .880 OPS with 16 homers, there was excitement surrounding the New Mexico native heading into 2015. After scuffling for Fort Myers, he used a strong Arizona Fall League showing to bolster the last two years of his career. With a .764 OPS at Double and Triple-A a year ago, Garver's .915 OPS in 2017 takes his career up a notch. Consistent all season, Garver has already hit 13 homers, and ripped 20 doubles for the Red Wings in 2017. When looking at his numbers as a whole, it may be easy to overlook just how good Garver has been of late as well. Over the course of his last 31 games, Garver owns a .328/.389/.630 slash line with 12 doubles and eight long balls. On the season, his .884 OPS against righties is solid, and his 1.005 OPS against lefties is downright incredible. With the Twins currently opting to go the extra pitcher route, they've found themselves using the likes of Jorge Polanco and Eduardo Escobar as the designated hitter. Bench bats have included Chris Gimenez and Ehire Adrianza. When on the roster, Kennys Vargas has played first poorly. Robbie Grossman has shown significant limitations in the outfield, and the 25 man as a whole continues to clamor for a more versatile righty. It would be foolish to expect Garver to come up and be some sort of a savior for the Twins club. A catcher first, any other position will see some drop off as a secondary position. Also, while hitting the snot out of the ball at Triple-A, he's a 26 year-old rookie that would likely need some time to adjust to the next level. What's also foolish to expect, is that Garver isn't up to the task. Thanks to the lackluster play of the Cleveland Indians, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in the thick of the AL Central division race. Squeezing out extra wins by raising the water level on the roster with players from within seems like a solid strategy. Mitch Garver represents a clear upgrade for the hometown nine, and it's time he gets his shot. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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Twins Hoping Rosario Can Make It All Work
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
Thanks Doc! I do have a weekly article that is solely published here (and not on my blog); but I don't push my other stuff to the front page. -
Twins Hoping Rosario Can Make It All Work
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
He's definitely taken it upon himself to throw guys out more often this year. Over throwing the cutoff man and allowing free bases has been a frequent occurrence as well. -
Over the course of the past three seasons, no young player has been more polarizing for the Minnesota Twins than Eddie Rosario. Despite being an early adopter on his bandwagon, and ready for a breakout in 2015, I've been nothing short of a skeptic since 2016 and beyond. In 2017 however, he's having his best offensive year as a big leaguer, and small tweaks are the big story. After a slow first two weeks to start the season (in which Rosario slashed just .186/.239/.209), he's been a necessary lineup fixture for Minnesota. Despite being consistently tied to a high likelihood of chasing pitches and flailing outside of the zone, he's seemingly been intent upon abandoning those descriptors and has turned over a new leaf. From April 18 until July 17, Rosario owns a .307/.341/.508 slash line. While he's still struck out significantly more than he's walked (51/13), the ratio has turned for the better on both sides. Over the three years he's spent in the big leagues, the drastic strides at the plate this season are showing themselves numerically. Owning a 24.9% and 25.7% strikeout rate the past two seasons, he's cut the number to just 19.5% in 2017. He's struck out less because of having gone from a 14.5% swinging strike rate in 2015 (and 15.3% last year), to 12.6% this season. Swinging at less pitches out of the zone (38% in 2017 as opposed to 45.6% in 2015) is no doubt going to raise the water level as well. During his debut season, only the Red Sox Pablo Sandoval (47.8%) and the Orioles Adam Jones (46.5%) chased pitches out of the zone more often than Rosario's 45.6%. Swinging through 14.5% of pitches he took a hack at, Rosario also fared 10th worst in baseball among hitters in 2015. Thanks to his increased discipline, he now ranks 17th lowest in baseball when it comes to chase rate (bad, but much improved), as well as 41st in SwStr% (which is a big leap). As witnessed by his swings and misses outside of the zone since 2015 as well, pitch recognition is something he's vastly improved upon. While Rosario is far from an elite hitter at this point, it's no coincidence that his slight changes have helped to post his first big league OPS above .300. As things stand currently, he also paces the Twins with a .289 average. Still a work in progress, enough can't be made about the strides Rosario has made at the plate for Minnesota. Unfortunately, the downside to the offensive growth is the defensive slide. After tallying a ridiculous 12 assists from left field to go along with 10 defensive runs saved, he's fallen off. In 2016, his big league efforts resulted in basically a league average fielder, and this season, he's been worth -7 DRS and -2.2 UZR. Although Twins fans have dealt with the likes of Robbie Grossman, Josh Willingham, and Delmon Young in left field, Rosario hasn't been any sort of steadying presence this campaign either. There can't be enough noise made about how important Rosario's offensive changes have been. As the defense now holds him back, the wonder continues to be whether he can put it all together. Rosario at his best presents a dream outfield scenario for the Twins, but he'll need to present the reassurance that he's still capable of that. It's pretty crazy to think that we'd reach a point of Rosario being fine offensively while lacking in the outfield, but here we are. Minnesota needs him to come full circle, and doing so soon would be a nice boost. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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It's July, so there's nothing that will be asked more often over the next couple of weeks than whether or not competing teams should buy or sell. Maybe surprisingly to some, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in the thick of that discussion. What's important to take note of, is that the Twins time is now. There's no way to get around 2016 being a complete disaster for the hometown nine. Minnesota lost 103 games en route to a franchise worst season. That club however, was coming off of an 83 win season in 2015, and highlighted the volatility of youth. In 2017, we're seeing that notion continue. As the club turns over to being one punctuated by the likes of Miguel Sano, Jose Berrios, and Byron Buxton, growing pains are to be expected. Whether or not the expectations were a winning team in 2017, the reality was that this club had pieces to begin to make waves. As things stand while nearing the trade deadline, Minnesota has seen most of its top talent rise to the big league level. Miguel Sano is here, Jose Berrios has emerged, and Byron Buxton is playing every day. With other names like Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco on the big league club, the farm system has slogged as its best fruits have been picked. That's not to say there isn't talent still in the minors, but rather, the top tier names are bolstering the 25 man already. For much of the past seven seasons, the talk has been that the Twins haven't spent money, operating cheaply since opening Target Field. While that may be true, it's also a sensible plan of action. Save for 2010, there wasn't a season in which a big splash or two was going to turn a 90 loss squad into one that makes the playoffs. The organization could've splurged to raise the water level, but the end result would still remain. That is, until now. As Jerry Crasnick recently described the Atlanta Braves on Twitter, the Twins should be both short-term sellers and long-term buyers at this point. If there's value to be had in return for Ervin Santana or Brian Dozier, listen. If you can grab a piece like Sonny Gray or Marcus Stroman, explore it. While waiting on prospects is fun, the impact is two-fold. Some graduate to your big league roster and make an impact (Sano/Berrios/Buxton), others provide an impact by allowing you to improve your big league roster and have their day elsewhere (see Cubs/Red Sox). I'm not sure what the asking price for impact pitchers, a bat, or relievers will be during this trade deadline, but Minnesota would be wise not to shy away. Nick Gordon is having a great year at Double-A, but if you can turn him and a few others into a player that has a great year for the Twins in 2017 and beyond, absolutely it's something to be considered. 2017 has opened a window for competition in Minnesota thanks to a handful of reasons. While the Twins may be exceeding expectations, they are also highlighting the weakness of the AL Central as a whole. The Indians aren't running away with anything, and every other club is either not competitive, or has its warts. That same scenario should remain in play for at least the next two years, at which point the White Sox system should begin to bear fruit. In mentioning that White Sox system, it's of note that Chicago may threaten the Twins longevity the most. Through trades in the last year, the Southsiders have added the #2, 12, 14, 16, 45, and 77th best prospects in all of baseball (per MLB.com pre-2017 rankings) as well as a 1st round draft pick and top International signing. They have gone full rebuild, and the level of prospects in their system should quickly become impact big leaguers. During the deadline this summer, and in the upcoming offseason, the Twins would be operating entirely wrong if they aren't going for it. Thanks to the youth contributing at a high level, their window has opened, and will remain wide for at least the next couple of seasons. Spending money on a big name pitcher or shoring up the bullpen with a handful of different suitors should be the expectation not the hope. While they may come up short in 2017, or find an early playoff exit, bringing in an asset or two that helps now and down the road is hardly a bad decision. Given the landscape of the division, and the state of the organization as a whole, the Twins time to wait on the next prospect has ceased, and it's time to supplement what they have. The nucleus is there, and the new front office will be tasked with adding to it taking the club over the top. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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Big Leap For Next Twins Starter
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
Slegers is just a guy. They've gone with Wilk, Tepesch, Turley, etc already who are "just guys." If I'm adding to the 40 man, it's Gonsalves and letting him stay. -
After making just on Triple-A start at Rochester, the Minnesota Twins will call on Bartolo Colon to take a stab at shoring up their starting rotation. With the group of five being in flux virtually all season long, the hope is that Colon can be a steadying presence. The reality however, is Minnesota will more than likely be needing a new arm in the coming weeks, and this time, it could be another impact prospect making a big jump. Stephen Gonsalves has been lighting Double-A Chattanooga on fire, and it appears his time is soon coming. While it was Felix Jorge who got the first crack at the jump, it never made much sense to put Gonsalves in a spot start scenario. Jorge can be a nice piece for Minnesota in the coming years, but he doesn't have the upside that Gonsalves possesses. As one of the organizations top arms, Minnesota will be promoting Gonsalves with the intention of him staying, and the numbers suggest he may be ready. Getting off to a late start this season, Gonsalves has thrown just 63 innings over 11 starts. While that could be seen as a detriment, he's made 24 starts at Double-A in his career, and now has less miles during the 2017 season. This year, Gonsalves has also elevated his game to another level. After struggling with command in his Double-A debut tour (4.5 BB/9), he's been near perfect this season (1.7 BB/9). On top of lowering the free passes, he's held strong with a 10.6 K/9 mark, truly dominating the level of competition. Often times, organizations are faced with the idea of whether or not to move a prospect from Double-A to Triple-A as opposed to the highest level. While that works for some, Gonsalves could be argued to be ready for more. He's pitched to a 2.86 ERA and has shown an ability to do more than simply throw the ball by opposing hitters. A lefty with solid velocity and better pitchability, the former fourth round pick appears more ready for the big leagues than ever before. At the highest level, Minnesota will have some decisions to make. Colon is going to be added to the 40 man roster, while Hector Santiago seems destined to eventually come off the DL, and Phil Hughes looms in the bullpen. Despite that any number of them could make starts, the idea that you'd be counting on them seems a longshot at best. There's sunk cost in both Santiago and Hughes, meaning the Twins would need to be ok simply eating dollars and moving on. Arguably the smart decision, it's not the easiest one to swallow either. Regardless of how things are handled, Gonsalves has forced the issue. Considering the landscape of the organization, it's really a discussion between Gonsalves and teammate Fernando Romero when it comes to the next man up. The latter is on an innings limit still not too far removed from surgery, and could be a candidate to pitch out of the pen or make a spot start. It's really only Gonsalves that profiles as an impact addition that can be inserted into the rotation and stay. Right now, it's hard to look at when and where makes sense for Gonsalves. Things are going to remain up in the air throughout the month of July, and as the Twins scour the trade market. As the summer draws on though, I'd be nothing short of surprised if Gonsalves isn't the next man up to take the ball at the start of the game for Minnesota. Suggesting he's ready is a good bet, and things have more than begun to line up. With youth already the backbone of the big club thanks to Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Jose Berrios all playing key roles, Minnesota could be best served to continue the movement. Maybe not an ace, Gonsalves profiles as a rotation fixture for years to come, and a season from now, could be pitching the Twins into the Postseason. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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Even in taking on Liriano's contract back, I'm not sure Vargas has much of any value.
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AVG isn't the end all be all, but it is a shift. Also, Rooker/Kirilloff are bat first, but they aren't great bets to hit for avg and Kirilloff is a long ways away.
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I'd imagine it's not a bat instead of pitching. Also, while I can see where you're coming from, Bautista is a proven MLB bat whereas Park was a projectable KBO story.
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As the Minnesota Twins approach the trade deadline in 2017, we’ve often read that there was some disbelief in regards to this club being this competitive. Chalk it up to a lackluster AL Central, some good luck, or a breakout first half, but the Minnesota Twins are in it at the halfway point. What now becomes interesting, is how the home nine attacks the next few years as the divisional landscape changes.Recently, the Chicago White Sox made another blockbuster trade. When giving up Chris Sale to the Boston Red Sox over the winter, it was apparent the AL Central foe was going into a rebuild mode. The expectation was that other big pieces would be moved as well. When Jose Quintana was sent across the city to the Cubs, the Southsiders put everyone on notice. As things stand currently, the White Sox have one of the best farm systems in baseball, and they’re stocking up on near ready talent. So, how does a move like that change the landscape for the Twins? The long and short of it is that it shouldn’t. It’s far from a good practice to allow an opposing organization to dictate how yours is run. That being said, the AL Central is a division in flux as it stands. The Cleveland Indians are built for sustainable success, while the Twins remain an up and coming challenger. As the White Sox rebuild, the Kansas City Royals may soon be faced with that same decision. Detroit keeps getting older, and could soon find themselves struggling to keep up. With that blueprint, it’s the Twins that seemingly have the greatest opportunity. In 2017 the emergence of Miguel Sano as a true power threat, the blossoming of Jose Berrios as a frontline starter, and the growth of Byron Buxton, have all helped to shape the Twins future. That group will be the key trio that leads the organization back to the Postseason, and gives the Twins a realistic chance at deep runs into fall baseball. What a move like that of the White Sox does for the Twins however, is remind them that the window for error is not a wide one. There’s no reason to believe that all prospects work out, and despite the White Sox loading up on top tier types, the reality is that some of them will flop. Knowing that they have a good amount of chips in their corner however, Minnesota can expand their opportunity to take over by supplementing what they already have going. At some point, top Twins prospects close to making an impact will be called upon. Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, and Fernando Romero all look like difference makers for a big league club. What’s worth exploring however, is who from the outside can take the organization to the next level. Whether the Twins operate on the trade market in 2017, or look to free agency prior to the 2018 season, there hasn’t been a time in recent memory that looks more like a “go for it moment” for the organization. If that means spending big on a top tier starter, making a splash to get a superstar in return, or rounding out the 25 man with some A-list pieces, it would seem that now appears the time to do so. Baseball is not a sport in which one player significantly advances the overall prognosis of a club. Despite being the best player on the planet, Mike Trout has watched the Angels wrestle with futility for the majority of his career. Asking the Twins to spend money at any point since at least 2010 seems like an avenue for wasting dollars to improve by a marginal value at best. Now however, one or two big additions could be enough to have this group take the next step. There’s arguments to be made on both sides of the coin, do you make moves in free agency or flip players through the trade market. We’re going to see how Derek Falvey and Thad Levine tackle a real opportunity, and knowing a new front office is in charge of that scenario is something worth being excited about. If there’s a window for the Twins to be exploring, it’s beginning to crack, and they can choose to kick it wide open. Click here to view the article
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Recently, the Chicago White Sox made another blockbuster trade. When giving up Chris Sale to the Boston Red Sox over the winter, it was apparent the AL Central foe was going into a rebuild mode. The expectation was that other big pieces would be moved as well. When Jose Quintana was sent across the city to the Cubs, the Southsiders put everyone on notice. As things stand currently, the White Sox have one of the best farm systems in baseball, and they’re stocking up on near ready talent. So, how does a move like that change the landscape for the Twins? The long and short of it is that it shouldn’t. It’s far from a good practice to allow an opposing organization to dictate how yours is run. That being said, the AL Central is a division in flux as it stands. The Cleveland Indians are built for sustainable success, while the Twins remain an up and coming challenger. As the White Sox rebuild, the Kansas City Royals may soon be faced with that same decision. Detroit keeps getting older, and could soon find themselves struggling to keep up. With that blueprint, it’s the Twins that seemingly have the greatest opportunity. In 2017 the emergence of Miguel Sano as a true power threat, the blossoming of Jose Berrios as a frontline starter, and the growth of Byron Buxton, have all helped to shape the Twins future. That group will be the key trio that leads the organization back to the Postseason, and gives the Twins a realistic chance at deep runs into fall baseball. What a move like that of the White Sox does for the Twins however, is remind them that the window for error is not a wide one. There’s no reason to believe that all prospects work out, and despite the White Sox loading up on top tier types, the reality is that some of them will flop. Knowing that they have a good amount of chips in their corner however, Minnesota can expand their opportunity to take over by supplementing what they already have going. At some point, top Twins prospects close to making an impact will be called upon. Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, and Fernando Romero all look like difference makers for a big league club. What’s worth exploring however, is who from the outside can take the organization to the next level. Whether the Twins operate on the trade market in 2017, or look to free agency prior to the 2018 season, there hasn’t been a time in recent memory that looks more like a “go for it moment” for the organization. If that means spending big on a top tier starter, making a splash to get a superstar in return, or rounding out the 25 man with some A-list pieces, it would seem that now appears the time to do so. Baseball is not a sport in which one player significantly advances the overall prognosis of a club. Despite being the best player on the planet, Mike Trout has watched the Angels wrestle with futility for the majority of his career. Asking the Twins to spend money at any point since at least 2010 seems like an avenue for wasting dollars to improve by a marginal value at best. Now however, one or two big additions could be enough to have this group take the next step. There’s arguments to be made on both sides of the coin, do you make moves in free agency or flip players through the trade market. We’re going to see how Derek Falvey and Thad Levine tackle a real opportunity, and knowing a new front office is in charge of that scenario is something worth being excited about. If there’s a window for the Twins to be exploring, it’s beginning to crack, and they can choose to kick it wide open.
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They shouldn't want Vargas to be the full time anything. Park has hit, but remains a strikeout machine and without power of late. Grossman has shown strong OBP skills but has been exposed of late. I am of the same "no rental" philosophy, but don't believe the acquisition cost for Bautista would be all that great. He started out slow and is owed a lot of money.
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He has a .719 OPS against righties in 470 ABs. He's got 708 MLB ABs. I'm not on a crusade against the guy, just think he's vastly misrepresented. He's a bench bat on a good day.
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I'd be in favor of it too. Would imagine the money would be offset by the type of prospect.
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Not sure why people are still under the impression Kennys Vargas is a big leaguer despite no evidence for that claim. Granite can be an asset, but not for his bat.
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Recently on MLB.com, Jon Morosi wrote a trade deadline buyer's guide focused on hitters. I recently wrote a piece regarding the Twins and how they should attack the deadline when it comes to pitching and prospects. I hadn't considered them adding a bat, but there's a name Morosi mentions that could make some sense. Is this the time that Jose Bautista comes to Target Field wearing the home uniform? There was some talk over the offseason that Minnesota may have interest in the long time Blue Jays slugger. He would join an outfield better suited defensively, but there's a clear path to regular playing time as the designated hitter. Over the winter, he ended up heading back to Toronto on a one-year deal worth $18.5 million. Now on the hook for just a prorated portion, Minnesota could attempt to entice the Canadian AL East club to send him south of the border. On the season, Bautista has posted a .749 OPS, or his lowest mark since 2009. He owns a poor .234/.349/.400 slash line and has hit just 14 homers. Much of that is directly related to a very slow start to the year however. Since May 12, Bautista owns a .275/.379/.482 line with 11 of his 14 total homers. Having turned it on after a slow start, he's beginning to trend back up. At 36 years old, and with over 1,000 MLB games under his belt, there was plenty of reason to worry about a downturn in 2017. Now with the season halfway over, the Blue Jays have eaten up most of that risk. Should the Twins, or some other team, trade for him at this point, they'd be getting a player with most of the risk assumed by another organization. Toronto would likely still want a decent return, but unless they are willing to eat most of what's still owed to him, any partner should have strong negotiating position. Throughout his career, Bautista has enjoyed plenty of success at Target Field. Obviously that comes with the caveat of having faced a good amount of poor Twins pitching over the years. Nonetheless, in 21 games at Target Field, Bautista owns a 1.324 OPS with 14 homers. Obviously playing there full time, those numbers probably decrease some, but having past success to use as a springboard is hardly a bad thing. Given the Twins current roster construction, Bautista seems to fit as well. While not a good defensive outfielder, he would immediately slot in as the every day DH. He hasn't consistently played first base for some time, but could spell Joe Mauer at the position every once in a while. He also allows Minnesota to upgrade from Robbie Grossman, who while despite being an OBP machine, has gotten exposed with increased playing time. A lot regarding the landscape of how the Twins attack the remainder of the 2017 season will be determined in the next week or so. With tough series against good teams upcoming, Minnesota will have a much more clear picture as to how they will fair down the stretch. If everything follows along with the status quo however, Jose Bautista remains a name that makes a good deal of sense in Minnesota. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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Minnesota Twins First Half In Review
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
Disappointment is relative in this sense. Polanco has always been carried by his bat, and showed as much last year. Seeing that regress has been sad. Hard to call Santiago, Gibson, or Belisle a disappointment when what they've given you isn't far from expectations. Santiago wasn't worth the arb deal, Gibson has been a known commodity for the past couple years (and hasn't stepped up), and Belisle as the lone relief signing never made any sense.