Vanimal46

I like this idea a lot. It seems like it would work bridging the gap and players get paid for playing well that season.

That all sounds great in a perfect world... There is a demand for those tickets, authentic jerseys, and beer, and people will keep paying for them. Revenue will continue to grow by the millions every year. Players currently are controlled for 6 seasons until they can explore FA for the first time, which is generally their age 31-32 season. GMs and Amateur GMs around the internet agree not to pay for their decline years. At the end of the day, aren't we just padding the pockets of the 1%? I'd rather the players that provide us fans entertainment get that money... We just need to find a way for the players to get that money when they're providing the most value to a team.

I feel worse when a billionaire owner pockets dozens of millions in revenue... They provide absolutely zero benefit to the fans and product on the field.

I think GMs and amateur GMs around the internet agree. Unfortunately that hurts a ton of players entering free agency the way it's currently set up. With teams having 6 seasons of control on any player, most don't experience FA for the first time until they're 31-32. Pretty crummy situation for them. I do have a few solutions to fix free agency! 1 - Fire Tony Clark from MLBPA and hire someone who can gain more power against the owners. 2 - Reduce the amount of cost-controlled seasons from 6 to 4. Instead of 3 pre-arb years and 3 arbitration years, it's 2 and 2. Players will be able to hit FA at their prime age and get the long term deal they want. Owners see a better return on their investment while sharing the revenue money. 3 - Implement performance bonuses during the season. Their salaries would stay the same, and cost controlled seasons remain the same. But, if they hit performance goals and achievements during the season, they get a bonus! That way a player is compensated for doing well, at the exact same time they're doing well.

"Brian Dozier, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Charlie Blackmon, Byrce Harper, A.J. Pollock, and Andrew McCutchen..." Of these names, Harper and Machado will have no issues receiving multiple long-term deals. They're hitting FA at the perfect age (26-27) and history shows when players hit the market at this age, teams don't hesitate to offer 7+ year contracts. You don't think Dozier, Donaldson, Blackmon, and McCutchen will experience the same issues the current crop of FAs are facing? All of them will be entering their age 32-33 season. Why would teams want to pay for their age 36+ seasons over JD Martinez? Same thing applies with the pitchers available. All entering their age 31+ seasons... Why would teams want to pay for their age 35+ seasons over Yu Darvish? Free agency is broken, and a strike may need to happen to get the changes they need.

So what, let the owners continue pocketing a significantly higher percentage of revenues than the players?

"Situation number one is that the crop of free agents is, for lack of better descriptors, rather week." I disagree with this statement, as I feel this is one of the better FA classes we've seen in a few years. There's still a projected ~48 2018 fWAR available for some team to sign them. For reference, the Houston Astros compiled 53.8 fWAR last year as the best team in baseball. I realize it's not a fair comparison between a group of 75 FAs and a 25 man roster. I just wanted to point out that there are several players available that will move the needle in a positive way for any team. If GMs and owners continue deciding a player making $500k providing any sort of value is better than signing a FA in their early 30's, it's not going to be good for baseball. Owners will pocket multiple millions more, and the players' share of the revenue pie will decrease.

"Situation number one is that the crop of free agents is, for lack of better descriptors, rather week." I disagree with this statement, as I feel this is one of the better FA classes we've seen in a few years. There's still a projected ~48 2018 fWAR available for some team to sign them. For reference, the Houston Astros compiled 53.8 fWAR last year as the best team in baseball. I realize it's not a fair comparison between a group of 75 FAs and a 25 man roster. I just wanted to point out that there are several players available that will move the needle in a positive way for any team. If GMs and owners continue deciding a player making $500k providing any sort of value is better than signing a FA in their early 30's, it's not going to be good for baseball. Owners will pocket multiple millions more, and the players' share of the revenue pie will decrease.

If only we had that kind of budget.... We're lucky enough to have Chief chip in a few dollars from his 401k to keep the lights on! Side note, we sat next to a spiritual couple that ordered a sushi platter. It looked like the Babe Ruth of Japanese entrees!

Interesting note about Alvarez. He's fallen off MLB.com's top 100 prospect list after starting at #49 last year. I don't pay for Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus to know if he's still on those lists. It looks like a great non-trade.

Sigh... I hoped this off-season would be different. Every year they wait is another year overlapping the time when Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Berrios, etc. need to get paid. If the Twins can't compete for the best FA SP in a year where every large market org sits out for financial reasons, what makes people think they can compete next off-season when their luxury tax penalties are reset?

Touche. That's what I get for skimming through the list instead of reading.

Gordon's high on prospect lists because he does most everything at an average or above average rate. He hits well enough, not elite but not horrible. He fields well enough, not elite but not horrible. So on and so forth. When you add all of that up, it's a valuable prospect. I think he'll have an extended career in the majors. This is a big year for him. Re: Polanco. I agree the 2nd half isn't him. It's very hard to maintain an .870 OPS throughout the season. Baseball-Reference projects him to be a .256/.313/.410 player in 2018. I'd be good with that if he continues to improve defensively. Re: Kepler. Yeah he certainly deserves a spot in the top 10. That's a pretty big omission. An even bigger omission IMO is Sano. I don't know how someone who has 40 HR potential and major league success didn't make the list. I agree with Gleeman's list more than Cody's.

Unfortunately Calhoun is a Texas Ranger now... He was included in the Darvish trade to LA. Buehler is also a high level prospect... #13 on BA, #13 on MLB.com

Unfortunately it all went downhill after the waiter tried talking us down... The intern ran to other tables and began pointing out flaws in other people's food! "The Caesar salad is in a decline phase!" "You think this pepperoni and sausage pizza is ELITE?! Pfft, I wouldn't pay $10 for that..." "This salmon dish is inconsistent!" Then the manager got involved and suggested we eat at another establishment with fewer options to choose from.

Domingo Santana is a year too late... He broke out last year hitting 30 HRs, .876 OPS, and 3.3 fWAR. The Fangraphs guys are speculating about him being a headliner in a potential Archer trade on their podcast.

I agree with all of this. One thing we can't count on however is Sano, Polanco, Buxton, and Kepler staying as healthy as they did last season. It's not mentioned enough how fortunate the team was that every position player stayed healthy throughout the season. Buxton missed a couple of weeks at most, and Sano missed the last month and change. That's it. So I agree they'll all produce better numbers, it just may not look like it if they're playing less games.

This window is the most exciting IMO. We've been conditioned to say trade him for prospects, and call up the kids because they're not competitive over the last 6 years. The window for making competitive moves couldn't happen at a better time. 3 AL Central teams are tanking. And frankly half of baseball is more interested in the 1st overall pick than a wild card berth. Pretty exciting times.

Great... Now we need an investigation of the investigation to find out if the Intern can indeed read! He started saying chi- like chicken, but we don't know for sure!

I appreciate the Fangraphs' article, and generally, yes free agency is silly where teams rarely get what they paid for. For most free agents, it's the one time they can finally cash in for providing incredible value while under pre-arbitration or arbitration salaries. No fan clamors for a player to earn more money when they're providing 5.8 bWAR making a $400k salary like Joe Mauer in 2006. MLB teams made a combined profit of $981 million in 2016 according to Forbes, and franchise valuations have exploded from $18.1 billion to $46.1 billion over the last 5 years. I'd rather see the players get a better piece of the revenue pie over billionaire owners. If teams are unwilling to pay players for past performance in free agency, they'll have to look for ways to pay players for their current performance.

I'm pretty comfortable in Dozier's ability to be productive until he's 35+ years old. His bat hasn't slowed down, and the power he shows should keep him as a .800+ OPS batter, and 3-5 WAR player. Plus, there's something to be said about the Twins needing a "face of the franchise" when Mauer's contract is done. Dozier is already being marketed as the team leader, and for the most part is already the face of the franchise. I'm not confident in Polanco or Gordon's ability to make up for Dozier's on/off field value and offensive production.

http://gentlemint-media.s3.amazonaws.com/images/2012/04/18/6745f59b.jpg.505x650_q85.jpg ANND Welcome! To Minnesota Twins Whine Line: Detective Edition! I'm your LEAD Investigator, Vanimal, along with my trusty sidekick, the intern. Since we last checked in, both of us set down the PS4 controllers, put MLB The Show back in the case, and studied for our Private Investigator license! In the real world, we noticed that it's January 30th, and 8 out of the top 10 free agents have still yet to sign! It's a strange, boring off-season... There's been several STRONG takes about why this is happening... And we're no different! We decided to put on our Deerstalker, and dive deep into the REAL reason why recent off-seasons are boring... Collusion: It happened once before, so it could happen again, right? That's what we thought too! Until we put it to the test using real world examples... Have you ever arranged a conference call with 30 busy people before? It's NEARLY impossible to do! Plus, they would waste countless hours of time! Owners will be talking over each other, waiting for others to take themselves off mute, jumping on the line 25 minutes late, and needing to "circle back at a later time." All of that sounds exhausting.... Whine Line Verdict: False. Waiting for a Sale: As consumers, we're accustomed to Black Friday, Cyber Monday, 4th of July BLOWOUTS, or "just because!" sales. Doesn't it feel good to purchase what you wanted, for a 30% discount! Of course it does! General Managers are humans too, and they want to feel like they got a discount... Now these days he could look at MLBTradeRumors, FanGraphs, even the Twins Daily Handbook to find salary projections of free agents. Where's the excitement?! The THRILL of the hunt?! Perhaps they're waiting for their Cyber Monday sale.... Whine Line Verdict: Certainly possible! Too Many Options: Typically at this time of year, 1 or 2 of the top free agents are left unsigned... If that! This year, there are 4 to 8 times as many options! Is it possible that General Managers are frozen in fear because there's too many players to choose from? We took our investigation on the road to get to the bottom of it! ANNND Welcome back! We're broadcasting LIVE from the Cheesecake Factory! That's right, the home of a 20 page menu.... If you can't find something to eat here, you're not looking hard enough! In order to test this theory, the intern and I gave ourselves a 30 minute window to decide what to order... WAITER: "Here are your waters, gentleman. Do you have any questions about the menu? Or know what you want?" VAN: "I think we need a little bit of time. There's so many options here. Any specials?" WAITER: "Today's soup of the day is split-pea, and we also have a Philly cheese steak with your choice of fries, salad, fruit, onion rings, or vegetable." VAN: "Wow, even the sides have a bunch of options to choose from... Okay, we need some time." 8 minutes later... WAITER: "Are you ready to order? Questions at all?" VAN: "Yeah, a few questions. I'm debating between the Avocado BLT, Philly cheese steak, Chicken Parmesan, or Chicken Enchiladas. What would you choose?" WAITER: "Hmm, well, our Philly is one of the most popular orders today. The Chicken Parmesan is okay, but I would recommend our Spaghetti and Meatballs over that. And frankly, you're better off going somewhere else for Mexican food." VAN: "That helps... And the Cobb Salad?" WAITER: "I mean, it's a salad.... So... How about you sir, are you ready?" INTERN: "I'll have the uh, chi.... No. Not that. Umm.... Can you come back to me?" WAITER: "Guys, I do have other tables to tend to. I'll come back later." 13 minutes later.... WAITER: "Okay, how about now?" INTERN: "I.... I...... I JUST CAN'T DECIDE! Please, come back to me, okay?" WAITER: "Are you crying, sir?" INTERN: "It's your fault! There isn't a perfect option to order... EVERYTHING has flaws!" WAITER: "Okay, this is getting weird. What about you, sir?" VAN: "I have narrowed it down to 2 items, and I will get back to you by the end of the week." WAITER: "This ISN'T how this works, sir. Look, guys, it's only lunch. You're just spending some money now... It's not like you're trading me your watch, or I don't know... a top prospect like Nick Gordon in order to eat. So what do you say? Let's figure this out before my shift is over, okay?" VAN & INTERN: "Wow... This HAS to be how Falvine feels signing free agents.... I've seen the light!" Whine Line Verdict: TRUE

The symptoms and signs have been here for years. We're noticing it now because of the serious lack of activity this winter... The best of the best free agents have no issue getting long term contracts. Harper/Machado/Kershaw will have multiple 7-8 year contracts to decide over because of their age heading into FA. The rest will demand similar long term contracts and struggle to find a team willing to do so. You bring up analytical front offices and that plays into it for sure. They see years of data handing out poor FA contracts rewarding past performance, and now they don't want to do it anymore. So how are players supposed to get their piece of the revenue pie? If the market is capped for international FA, and their contracts are controllable for 6-7 years, how can they earn money for their performance right now?

I love this post. This is how we should think about a long term contract for Darvish.

I'm curious to hear your thoughts on these scenarios and what would be best for Romero long term... Let's say in 2018 he throws ~125 innings in the minors, and another ~30 innings pitching in the MLB bullpen. Or... He pitches ~165+ innings all in the minors. Forgoes the Sept. cup of coffee to keep arm healthy for 2019.