dbminn

A fine wrap of the week, Nick. Your writing is better than the subject matter. I'm glad the minors are back in action. The pitchers you named give a guy some hope. Also cheering for Miranda and Celestino.

oops! Maybe it's a premonition for Montreal!

Durability is an ability. I stand by my original comment. Hopefully, we won't have a result to compare later this summer!

Winder is definitely earning his place with the Saints. That would conveniently leave a Wichita rotation spot open for Canterino.

I agree with thegambler. TD fans love to undervalue veteran players when the team is struggling. Berrios has had an incredibly durable and consistent career. He's ranged between 18th and 28th in the majors by fWAR over 2/3/4/5 years. His ranks since the beginning of 2017 (min 500 IP): fWAR - 18th ERA - 28th K%-BB% - 23rd There are 32 MLB clubs. He's a solid #2 in a contending rotation and a #3 in one of the best three rotations in baseball. He's worth a #50-#100 pick on his own, especially mid-season, when starting pitching should bring a premium. By trade value math, Berrios equals: Deivi Garcia from the Yankees, or Simeon Woods-Richardson + one or two top 30 org prospects from the Blue Jays. (One note - if Richardson keeps pitching like he has to start 2021, he may move way up the Top 100, out of reach for just Berrios. Sub any Top 50-75 pitcher.) Kepler is worth at least 30% more than Berrios due to the nice contract. Personally, I hope the Twins find a 10-game winning streak so we don't find out if I'm right or wrong. If a trade does happen, I'll take the good or bad takes that comes with these predictions (for healthy players).

Twins picked up a nice win and I thoroughly enjoyed it. There's another game today. That's the non-buzzkill narrative as of this morning.

Great stuff, Tom.

Here is a link to the MLB Twins Top 30 stats: MLB - https://www.mlb.com/prospects/stats?teamId=142 You can get all the previous night's box scores for the Twins at this page too. Hope this works...

Baseball America just picked Seth Gray as one to watch. I looked back at some earlier TD articles and our folks mentioned him as well. Fourth round pick in 2019. Playing 3B for Cedar Rapids. He seems to be a ball magnet. He already has 3 HBP this year! I am not all that familiar with him but I thought I'd pass his name to you because I'm watching him. Cole Sands is my personal pick.

A really fine interview, Seth. Glad you reposted. Looking forward to watching Larnach play at the major league level. Whether he starts fast or slow, he's going to be a good one in the long run.

I'd love to see the Twins sign Buxton at the end of the year. He will get at least $200 million on the open market if he plays 100+ games per year through 2022. None of his injuries have hurt his speed or his arm. When he does slow down, his arm and HR power are more than enough for RF. If the Twins continue to struggle, I'd consider trading Berrios this season. There may never be a better trade market for a SP: Two SD starters are out with Tommy John surgery. Paddack has been out with Covid and another SP, Dinelson Lamet, continues to have arm troubles. Dustin May is a TJ victim and Tony Gonsolin has shoulder inflammation for the Dodgers. The Braves only have four solid pieces in their rotation.The Yankees can barely piece together a full rotation. All but the Yankees have prospects to send back. The Braves might have to make a 3-way trade to get the Twins a SP. They have Pache and Waters, both elite CF prospects. A Padres trade might include multiple players on both sides to get MacKenzie Gore. The Dodgers have Josiah Gray to offer. What do you think?

"2019 was an outlying year for Polanco as a left handed hitter." No. He had success in 2018 against RH pitchers as well. Polanco has had right ankle surgery each of the last two seasons. He may have developed some bad habits from compensation. He needs work from the left side, but certainly not enough for a 27 year old veteran to give up switch hitting.

Thanks, Ted. Arraez and Sano are the perfect contrast in style. In an effort to stay positive, I'll comment only on Arraez. What a perfect *hitter* - takes the ball to all fields, rarely hits a dribbler, hasn't hit a pop-up since 2019, and has exquisite patience. Now, he seems to be hunting pitches to drive when he sees an opportunity. He's a beauty.

Baseball is a game of adjustments

Great comment. I agree with your rationale. If California seems too "political" for some, I say drop it in the middle of the country. Kansas City is a great venue for the midsummer classic.

Excellent piece, Steve. Celestino, Sands and Cano are definitely on my list to follow this year. There are two unlisted prospects I'm curious about: Winder - whom I enjoyed watching in ST; and Miranda, who has definitely filled in and looks like he can hit. I'm also rooting for Gordon to have a full, healthy season. He's been through a lot.

Nice work, Matt. Glad you followed up with the source.

Well, at least I was immediately wrong.

I agree. This question should get traction if the Twins hitters start the season as poorly as they performed last year.

Dobnak and Thorpe will both be on the roster to start the season. They need two long relievers/spot starters. Stashak is probably the one to be optioned to AAA.

Colina will probably be fine. He pitched a grand total of one-third inning last year. Beyond that, I believe Canterino will be called up if back-end relievers are injured. He will be stretched out in the minors, but I don't think the FO will hesitate if we lose key relievers for more than a few weeks. He has better command than all of the RP mentioned except maybe Law.

Sign Buxton now. He just turned 27 years old. His game isn't based only on speed. The past two seasons, his isolated power (SLG-AVG) was .274. That would've ranked 11th in the majors if he could've stayed on the field. Of course, staying on the field is his biggest problem. In 2021, he played 39 of the first 53 games. He missed 10 days with an injured shoulder. He missed the last 7 games because he got hit in the head. Still, He was: The second-most valuable position player on the Twins by fWAR and the most valuable by rWAR.The leading CF in the major leagues by Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).He's a difference maker. I bet he reaches 400+ PA per year across the next 4 seasons. That's enough to make him a top 50 player in MLB, at a premium position. BTW, the other top defensive CF the past two years? Lorenzo Cain (34 yrs old) and Kevin Keirmaier (30 yrs old). Buxton will play CF for several more years. Offer him 4/$52M or 5/$68M. Give him a $3M bonus this year, then $12M and 2 or 3 years @$16M.

"If I was a betting man (I’m not, I’m terrible at it) then I would pick Cruz to lead the club. I would take the over on Donaldson and the under on Sano. Do the opposite if you like betting and not losing money." I pretty much agree. I think I'd avoid betting on Sano either way. I'd take the over on Kirilloff.

I'm so happy for Thorpe. I was worried about his mental and emotional health. He seems to be finding his bearings. A side benefit seems to be we're going to see him at his best on the mound.

Eddie's fWAR the past four years: 2017 - 2.6 2018 - 3.4 2019 - 1.2 2020 - 2.4 adjusted for a 162-game season 0.9*(162/60) Most recent season above 1.8 WAR, 4-season average = 2.45 WAR, 3 of 4 seasons 2.4 or above. I'll take the over.