Trov
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Offseason Trade Target: Fixing Jon Gray's Slider
Trov replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If his value is on the low end, why would Rockies look to move him now? Unless there are teams that believe they can unlock his full potential when he was drafted, few teams will give up much at this point. Rockies should hold onto him, if they think they can get some good numbers from him early in the season and flip him for more on a rental, when competing teams will give up a little more. I am sure the Rockies will shop him, I am just guessing the waters will be luke warm at best for him right now. -
I am not sold on Stoman, unless it is on low risk deal. I agree he will be looking long term, but teams are less likely to do that with current environment and upcoming CBA changing. What scares me is when he faces teams that know how to hit grounders to holes in the field. See what happened against the Astros in playoffs. A few of them knew exactly how to hit a weak ground ball through the giant hole the Twins gave them. I am not going to get into the shift debate, but it does not matter how weak you hit a ground ball if you can it through the 90 holes sometimes the Twins give hitters. So that may take away Stoman's best attribute right there.
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Twins Face 2 Pivotal Decisions in Arbitration
Trov replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Eddie I have been saying for weeks is gone. Rodgers is a closer call. He was touted as a closer all year, only to lose that job and go back to closer by committee, which I am generally a fan of. I think he will be back for 1 year for sure. He still will get lefties out and can get righties so even if not closing he will still have value. -
AL Central Aftermath: What’s Next?
Trov replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Sox pitching is not young, and the ones that are did not perform well. The hitters, they had 3 guys I would consider young as regulars. Roberts, Madrigil, and Jimeniz. The rest, although many are 27 or younger, they have been in the league for several years. Mocanda, Anderson, Mazara all have 4 plus years of experience. Abreue and Grandal both over 30 and been playing long time. So they very much have a mix of age and experience in the lineup. Roberts also faded down the stretch, scouting most likely caught up to him. My point overall, White Sox not as young as they seem. We had similar built line up. Many under 30 with years experience. Buck, Polonco, Sano, Eddie, Kepler. We had some rookie or second year guys, Jeffers, and Arraez. We had some vets Donaldson and Cruz. Our bench was older overall I would say, but comparing the two lineups of age and experience we are actually very close overall. -
Most Valuable Non-Prospect Offensive Trade Pieces
Trov replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You trade away someone you are underpaying if you feel you have a replacement ready to go. The fact they are underpaid for a few years makes them more valuable to other teams and a wider range of teams. I am not advocating for doing so, but the point is if you feel you have someone ready to step in, and their value is there then go for it. Like, I wish we would have traded Garver in the offseason when he was peak value, knowing we had Jefferson. Kepler and Polonco are both coming off of down years so their value may not be super high but at same time they have history of being MLB level player too. -
Not sure there is too much out there for Trade on what Twins have and willing to depart with. Eddie will not be traded for a quality SP or even part of any group that would, unless he is more of a throw in. He does not have the value a team that is stacked with pitching would be looking for, and no rebuilding team would want him. Sano may have some interest in a team that think they can get him to make more contact, but at this point I do not see any blockbuster involving him. So that brings us to prospects, much like how we got Meada last year. We are not getting top end starter for anyone other than Lewis most likely because hitting corner OF are not too hard to come by these days that they would be worth major trade. You list a few in the article worth looking at, but the teams you listed are not ones that will be looking for prospects most likely, they are in trying to win now mode, well LA has been that way for long time, just never seem to be winning. Of course they should look and make calls, but I do not see much happening trade wise for top arm. Now FA we could push big for Bauer on 1 year, if he truly is just looking for the biggest money for 1 year.
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I have always liked Eddie and felt he was undervalued when he first came up. He has always loved the spotlight. He also has made head scratching plays in field and on bases, trying to do the spectacular too much. I am impressed with his walk rate increasing this year. However, it did not increase in his overall output. His average was lower, making his OBP. and Slugging, both lower than previous years, despite being on a similar HR pace over full season. What made people not like him over the years, his chase rate, was what led to some of those extra base hits and lower walks. I would want to go back to see how often he walked with no one on versus when runners were on. The old saying, "a walk is as good as a hit," is not accurate. It is same as a bases empty single, else a hit is always better than a walk. So to increase walks by decreasing hits is not a good exchange. The question really is, did he stop being aggressive on pitches he normally would have got hits on in efforts to walk more? If he did that is bad trade off. That being said, I would support keeping him, but will fully understand releasing him based on his expected salary. If he can show that is new found patience at plate would increase his other numbers I would want him to return even more, but fact is that did not change his overall output for the team, it only fixed one aspect, but hurt or did not help others. The assumption many made, I was not one of them, was if he started walking more and chasing less, he would have overall better output. However, that was not the case. Why you may ask, and why I was not one clamoring for him to take more walks and chase less? He would get hits on balls out the zone many times, and he would foul off the balls out the zone, because despite chasing balls out of zone at high clip, he made high contact on them. So he was hard to pitch too really, because you would think pitch out of zone he will chase, but he would not miss that often, and at times get hits or at least extend at-bat for a different pitch. Now he takes the pitch and the walk, taking away his chance at a hit. To make things worse, if he was not crushing pitches he did swing at, which appears his numbers were similar, reducing the swings really just reduced chance of driving in runs when runners were on base. He took away his aggression, which did not have the results intended. Can he still take walks and get hits when pitches are thrown in zones to drive? Yes, but he needs to work on that next. The eye was first, now harnessing how to make pitchers pay when thrown in the zone is next, but I fear he will not do that.
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Time for a Bauer Outage in Minnesota
Trov replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Mr. Bauer is one of most interesting FA ever, and throw in a very interesting FA off season to boot. I could be wrong, but I believe he reps himself. He is always outspoken about business of baseball and many other things. He has always been different from other players, doing things his way. He was known for his odd warm ups of pole to pole long toss. He studies the game and his delivery to be best at what he does and to stay healthy. It seems he will always do what he thinks is best and not listen to coaches too much. He has stated in past he will go year to year FA to max his earning potential over that time. He wants to bet on himself. However, he said that years ago when FA was not looking him in the face coming off of a great season. Will he change his mind and go multi year deal in these uncertain baseball times? I do not just mean when fans will return, but with possible stoppage and looming salary cap. Maybe it does not happen, but if one does, that will lower his future earing potential than he first thought, most likely. If you just wanted the numbers I would offer him 1 year deal in a heartbeat. If you care about clubhouse personality, Falvey would know that better than anyone who he is like. We all know he will throw a tantrum from time to time, once throwing a ball from the mound over CF wall, that is impressive in its self. However, it can be thought he cares more about himself than the team when he does stuff like that. He is not alone in these actions either, but something to keep in mind. What will also complicate things is if he is given QO, unless I read they took that away for this off-season, so much stuff happened, something like that rings a bell. If he can be offered a qualifying offer, which he will turn down, will a team sign him to a 1 year deal? You give up a long term piece in a draft pick for a single season of work, that is something to really look at for some teams. I know I would second guess a 1 year deal and giving up a pick, in an expected shortened draft again. -
Is it Time to Move on From Nelson Cruz?
Trov replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I can see an argument to let him go, but I feel better reasons to keep him on. As addressed cost should be low overall and Twins can take the hit. If he goes belly up and drops off a cliff, he retires, or we cut him and move on. You out some money but you need to be wiling to cut him loose no matter the contract if he falls off the cliff. I do not think he will, but you never know. I am not overly worried about his decline in overall numbers this year because as the year moved on it became clear he and buck was our only run producers that you could count on. He had little to no protection behind him and I think he may have been pressing some. Last year, 2019, he had HR behind him every game no matter where he hit so pitching to him was more needed. This year, he was getting so many sliders just off the plate, some for strikes and he was not willing to make them pitch to him because he needed to drive in runs because whoever was behind him was not doing it. Maybe I am wrong with that theory, but sounds good to me. -
LaMonte Wade Jr. is Too Interesting To Ignore
Trov replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think Wade is just the wrong time in baseball. I think in a different time he would have made majors as a lead off guy. He is not CF defender most likely it would seem, but his OBP would have got him to majors a decade ago. MLB is moving to power power power and that is not him. Could he get with a team that values his skill more, maybe, but for Twins he is not the fit for this current team plans. I say let the kid get a chance else where if you are not willing to give it to him. If we were not so deep in corner OF guys I would feel like he should take over for Eddie next year, but we have too many guys that bring more to plate than he does. -
I have a feeling there is going to a bit more non-tender FA options out there. The third year arbitration guys that will not warrant the high raise, but still worth a flier at less of a cost. This years FA will be very crazy I think, with not only COVID questions about butts in seats, and pending work stoppage. Overall, none of the starters impress me much mentioned, but if you can get one cheap for depth that is always worth something. See how much depth we needed this year. In terms of pen, I would never give long term big money deals to them, they are volatile and hard to predict from year to year how they will do. Position players I think too many internal options.
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Josh Donaldson Loves To See Pitchers Hurt By The Shift
Trov replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
There has always been a saying in baseball, "hit it where they aint" (pardon the poor grammar I did not write the saying) That being said, no matter where you line up there is holes in the field. The concept of the shift is not knew, I actually get annoyed when people act like it is and want outlaw it. Shifts have been going on for decades, sometimes big shift like now, but sometimes little shifts, that we would call 'x' defense. Double defense would shift the middle infielders closer to the base, leaving larger holes between the corner defenders, but making double play more likely because someone is closer to the base. No doubles defense, would have outfield further back, and corner infielders closer to line. Infield in, which Twins used a ton this year. Bunt prevention, so on and so on. Now, teams have identified that generally ground balls are hit at higher rate on pull side, however, some can still hit to opposite side beating that shift. Some times will still shift those players, some will not. As the article points out, there are times teams will still shift to dare the hitter to take the HR swing away. It really comes down to hitter philosophy and game situation. So many MLB hitters could learn to bunt well and get so many singles bunting against shifts, but they have yet to do that. If they went up looking to hit a certain pitch a certain way they could hit more against it, but some players are not there to get a single. They are there to hit HR. If the team has the plan to hit HR, why would they teach hitter to bunt for a single? My personal philosophy is take the easy hit, do it again and again and again, until the other team tries to take that away, and different holes open up. Personally, I think eventually, hitters will make that change and teams will then adjust to it. I wonder why it has still taken this long. However, it is not like tee ball where you can just hit where ever you want. Pitchers are trying to pitch into the shift, or get out the hitter. Not all hitters are so good they can see the hole and hit it every time no matter the pitch. Maybe, as shifts keep happening some teams will teach how to beat it better. Right now, the league just tries to hit line drives over it anyway, and does not care about hitting grounder through the hole, but maybe if a team sees that as easy win, they will start doing it more. I would only ask players that can make that change in approach easy though, else they may not be able to change it up when teams stop shifting. -
Twins Early Offseason Outline: The Future is Now
Trov replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I have a feeling many options are on the table for Twins. Much of it will come down to how other teams value the players the Twins have, versus how the Twins value them. For example, Garver is a catcher that 2019 was one of best hitting in the game, and was decent behind the plate too. Last year he was no where close to same. Catchers generally have higher value in baseball if they can hit, it is always a bonus. Question is if other teams believe he can be 2019 or not. If a team believes he can, do the Twins think so? If Twins think so, will they be willing to trade him? I believe if another team is willing to pay 2019 value for him you snatch that up so quickly. Even if he does return to that, it will not be for long based on his age. Sano as well, how do other teams value him? When he makes contact he hits ball as hard as anyone, but he makes contact only about 50 to 60 percent of the time, and has only at times shown an improvement on that, but never consistent. Does a team think they have the solution, do the Twins think they do? I may catch some heat for this, but I think Twins should see what value other teams have for Buxton. Not saying they should trade him, but see what is out there. He is not that young anymore, and continues to show he could be amazing when on the filed, but that is not that common. I think many teams will still have high value of him, but I fear he will not age well. His whole game is based on speed and once that is gone, he will need to change up his game. He did show flashes of being a top hitter without his speed, but he had shown that in past only to come back swinging to way too many pitches out of the zone. I am still a huge fan of him, but if Lewis or someone else can step in and be not a huge drop off on defense I would look to see what value other teams have of him. I would not dump him for nothing by any means, but if you feel some times value him very high I would look into it. Finally, I would not load up on rookies, but if Lewis is MLB ready I would bring him in, rooker, and Krioloff. Lewis I would figure out where he fits best OF or SS, and make rest of team adjust. -
It’s Time to Turn the Page on the Bomba Squad
Trov replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Justin Morneau put it perfect. Those nicknames and teams happen in the moment and not forced. Going into 2019 they did not call them that. It was not until like 60 games in when HR pace was crazy that the name really grew. Just because same team the next year does not mean the same outcome. He brought up the smell em' year. People tried to carry that over the next year, but again it just came out of no where. Players did not want to make it a thing, but fans saw the finger to the nose and point to dugout then the team was known for the smell em' team. Forcing a team into something never works well. Let the name go, and let next years team come up with their own thing. -
Twins Payroll Primer and Key Decisions
Trov replied to Nash Walker's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
1. Eddie is out, no way will they tender him. My guess he will be a late signing in spring training by someone. He is basically replacement level player at this point of career and will not improve. He will not be worth his pay and it will be time to give younger guys a look. Only way they keep him is at a very discounted contract. 2. I think both mentioned are out. They will try possible inside organization or bring someone in. You can find plenty of guys out there that can do similar to what they did recently. 3. I doubt they go after any of the FA mentioned, but if they do I think it may be Bauer because he will not be seeking long term deal, unless he changed his stance on the 1 year at a time approach he has talked about in past. With COVID he may change his mind and seek some long term commitment, but if he stays true to his word he will want just a 1 year deal, so Twins will have little to risk long term. 4. Cruz, if the price is right I bring him back. From everything reported he is a great guy to have around. The only caveat is if you are willing to cut him should he not be producing and hits the age cliff. No marching him out there should that happen because we are paying him too much. Not saying it will, but his last month was not good, I think there could be many reason for that, but he hit 2 rockets for doubles in the post-season, only guy to drive in runs. We have possible replacements, but DH is not that easy, many guys have tried to do it and failed compared to when they were in field. Some can do it well though. 5. Pen I am not worried right now. The main question is romo back. I think they will bring him back, but rest will shake out. May is gone I think, unless he wants back on 1 year low money deal. Maybe that is all he can expect this off-season. Overall, the biggest questions will be how future projection of COVID affects teams willingness to spend. Will teams stay away from multi-year deals? How much stock will this year be used in deciding worth? Will off-season look the same as last off-season, meaning same winter meetings and signings? Will players, and their agents, expect this to be just a blip and going back to next year and beyond be back to business as usual? So many questions. -
Donaldson is more concerning for me because it is the same injury over and over. With buck, other than concussion thing which is yet to be seen if that will linger, he has had so many different types. Yes, they have been high in number, but with the different types there is no reason to say he will not recover from them. Just wondering when he will get a new one. With Donaldson the question is when it will act up again, and seems to act up anytime and cannot do much to prevent it other than maybe rest. That type of injury concerns me more.
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5 Pivotal Questions Heading into the Twins Offseason
Trov replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
1. Way outside of my knowledge and too early to speculate I would believe. 2. I am all for it. I agree he slumped end of season and maybe that was age catching up, the lack of rest days because of schedule, or lack of protection behind him and he was pressing. He would get so many sliders just off the plate, some being called against him adds to chasing it. He crushed 2 doubles and still looked like he knows what he is doing. I would not break bank on return, but I would like to see him back. 3. That is hard one to answer. They can always upgrade pitching, but is it biggest need? They have many ready to go minor league guys most likely, and will they fill holes? I guess I would lean toward pen overall. 4. I would look into hitting coach, but offense was down across the board this year, not just on Twins team. Some teams it was up, but ball was not as juiced so we expected lower OPS. I am wondering how difficult COVID rules made adjustments for hitters during the season. I mean normal year we would have had 100 more games to play before playoff to make adjustments to how pitchers were going at hitters. 5. For me, it is retool. Let some go, trade who has some value, but keep the core overall that you have signed. Bring in some younger guys see what you got, but not full overhaul. I would point out, Kiraloff was not a Falvene pick, he was drafted the year prior to their hiring. He came up in their system, but they did not draft him. -
Should the Twins Front Office Have Added a Bat?
Trov replied to Matthew Trueblood's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I believe they were correct for not adding offense. As noted, we do not know what was out there and the price. The front office basically said this is last year with the current group because so many younger guys ready to get shot next year. It is also not clear if the bats available would have been upgrade. Overall this year was just crazy and hard to say any time acted right or wrong throughout it. To say the Twins should have traded for offense for expectation of injuries or that some players were regressing is, in my mind, going too far. Going by position, OF was unlikely to get a clear upgrade and then when your normal guys come back what do you do? If you traded for team control 2021 that adds to logjam of players there as well. 3b, we have JD long term, yes injury was quite possible, but to trade for a better offensive backup that means should be starting would require when JD returned that backup to move postions, but to where? DH or 1b would be most logical, which DH out of question with Cruz, so just 1b. Okay, Sano slumped bad rest of year, but he has always been super streaky. I could be wrong on time but he had a nice streak going on near deadline I thought. Last month terrible. SS, very little likelihood any offensive upgrades available there short term or long term. 2nd Arrize returned just fine overall and he looks to be long term solution for now. Catcher, Jeffers came in and did just fine as well, fact Rocco kept riding the Garve train is not on front office. Yes, you could have found someone better as a backup offense, but how much better and what would it have cost? -
Same Old Story: Another Abject Postseason Failure
Trov replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You hit it right on the head. Every year when playoffs start it is like a different team shows up. No hits with runners in scoring position, bad pen work, bad base running, errors. I do not know if it is the players, the coaching staff, or what it is that makes this happen. I hate when people claim nerves as some excuse, like only the Twins have same level of nerves, if that is the case and the other teams are not nervous, then maybe it is the player or coaching staff that does not prepare for the game well enough. -
4 Head Scratchers for Baldelli Against Astros
Trov replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I generally agree with the points as well. The least is the decision to pull Maeda, I would have let him try the 6th, and maybe if we had more than a single run lead he would have, but he is your ace, need to treat him like one. The other three make little sense to me. I get Garver crushed lefties last year, but he has not this year. Jeffers has been our best overall catcher this year, we are playing this year, not last year. Then that moves compounds the strange moves after with the ending of astiduilo. You could have left Garver in for a second at bat against the lefty or then pinch hit a lefty if you wanted to, but taking him out for a lefty means you need to hit a lessor right handed bat later on. Overall I defend Rocco, not today. -
5 Reasons Why This Twins Team is Different
Trov replied to Andrew Thares's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree with all the points, except for one. That Buxton should be healthy. Once that ball hit him in the head, although appeared to be glancing blow, I assumed he would be out for postseason again. Until he is on the field and makes it through a full game, I will assume he will not be there. The pitching is much better than it has been in most recent post-seasons, and after the first round depth will be very important. You cannot just go with 3 starters like in years past. Also, bullpen depth will be tested because no off days until WS means no back to back games multi innings get an off day to rest like in past. Teams that overuse pen and rely on just a couple guys will be tested later on. I still do not want to see the Yankees no matter where. There is just something about them in post-season, that Twins play terrible. Maybe with better pitching this year, that can strike guys out, will make a difference. Not playing at Yankee stadium will be huge too. It will be interesting to see the neutral site games because both, for ALDS and ALCS are known for being pitcher parks. WS site not sure since it is first year, would have to look up how it played out most of the year. -
Week in Review: Stealing the Central
Trov replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I would not say the Twins stole it. Each team played 60 games, we finished ahead of them at the end of it. Just because we had our losing slump in middle of season and they had theirs at end does not change the outcome. Remember when sky was falling and we had a long losing streak middle of season? Well Sox just decided to have long losing streak at end of season. In terms of matchup, on paper it looks like a great matchup, but pitching to me seems pretty fair matchup for short 3 games. You never know what may happen, I mean we got swept in 3 games by KC, on the road at least. I think being home will make the difference, but Houston is playoff tested for most part and their hitters can get hot. Our offense has not clicked together all year. This would be perfect time to change that.- 16 replies
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Notebook 9/27: One More Big Game Before the Playoffs
Trov replied to Cooper Carlson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I wish Cleveland would have won yesterday, that would have allowed for a win by them and we would have won division too. Either way, we have home field locked down, now just who will we play. It would be nice to win the division and be the 2 seed, because then we will be home team most of the way through playoffs if keep moving on. Yes, at neutral site, but still an advantage. -
Crazy last 2 games. If we win 1 game, we have home field for first round. If we win 1 and Chicago loses 1 game we win the division. If we lose both games, and Chicago wins 1 and Cleveland wins 1 we win division. If we lose 1 but Chicago wins both and Cleveland loses 1 we lose division. If we lose both but Cleveland wins both we lose division and Cleveland wins it. If we lose both, Chicago wins both and Cleveland wins both we are 7th seed and Cleveland wins division. My head kind of hurts thinking about it. At least we in, lets win at least 1 and let chips fall where they may.
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CIN 7, MIN 2: Twins Lose Game, Donaldson, Buxton
Trov replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I hope Buck is okay, the ball seemed to glance off the helmet than hit flush. I think they took him out for caution. Donaldson is more concerning and hopefully it was just a cramp he felt come on and they pulled him to rest it up. Both will be needed in post season.