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Trov

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Everything posted by Trov

  1. The third trip through is something that has been highlighted over the recent years. To me, it really comes down to the pitcher, I have not looked up the numbers and there may not be much for them, but I recall Radke and Johan both being guys that if they made it through the first two inning without giving up runs they normally would do pretty well the rest of the game, my memory could be wrong though. I think starters that have a good mix of pitches and know how to set up hitters for future at bats can pitch deeper. I am wondering how the pitch count has affected this third time numbers thing. What I mean by it, with pitchers knowing 100 pitches is basically the cut off now a days, and 2 trips through order, do they not worry about that 3rd trip and not worry about setting up hitter for a third time, or saving some stuff for that 3rd time? Also, as the first comment pointed out it is more likely the pitcher is facing the better hitters the 3rd time and not getting to end of line up, so the numbers may be a little skewed. What I mean by setting up hitters for a third time. Some pitchers will go with same approach against hitter every at bat because it worked, but against a good hitter he will adjust to what pitcher is doing. A good pitcher can think ahead and think about if the hitter will make that adjustment and bet one step ahead. That is the chess game that is baseball.
  2. First, I am not sure they have made agreement on "bubble" neutral site games for post-season, but sounds likely just to make sure they get played. Second, there is an inherent advantage to being home team even in neutral site. You get to hit last, which is always an advantage because you know what you need to do to win. You will play different in the late innings, and extras. That being said, I fully agree matchups will be huge. Cleveland will be a tough first matchup for anyone with their starters, but second round could hopefully not have to face Beiber or only once. Sox same thing with them only having 2 starters, but we have handled Gioleto well. I am sure the team is just worried about winning games and not playing the who will we match up against. Just please please please no Yankees, I cannot handle another Yankees sweep of us.
  3. I agree with the comments so far. Every player will struggle from time to time. Look at who some were picking to be best in basebal, Yelich. I am impressed with Sano's scooping and stretching, still needs the reps for when to go after a ball and when not too, but that is something only reps will get you. People forget he was signed as a SS, but no one expected him to stay there but he did play a year at SS if I recall in the minors. When he is on, he hits the ball as hard as anyone in the league, but he clearly is a guy that needs a lot of time to get right in the box.
  4. Loved this comment. I have made very similar comments years ago when Twins were winning but their run differential was poor. Everyone said expect the Twins to start losing because their winning percentage did not match run differential. However, those are predictive stats, they are states controlled by results. I agreed it was unlikely that both would continue and it was true, but what change was the run differential not the winning percentage. I will agree that looking at stats can help confirm or refute what your eyes are seeing, but they do not predict future outcomes. The writer of article points out that Rodgers should be having better results, but he has not. It asks who is having better season. Duffy clearly is, the results show that. If the question is who is pitching better overall, maybe it is closer answer, but Duffy has not given up a bunch of runs, Rodgers has. Does it mean Rodgers will continue to have the bloops fall, no he could start having those be outs, and Duffy could run into bad luck. At some point you need to just see results and agree they are what happened good or bad luck.
  5. The FO and system seems to find value in relief pitchers, now lets get the same for starters in the system like Cleveland. How crazy that they were able to trade away 3 pitchers that would most likely be our number 1 and number 1 on over half the teams and still have the best pitcher in baseball, and other great starters. They know how to keep bringing in good starters and trading at good times to fill other wholes. If their owner was willing to spend like Chicago does Cleveland could be super scary for many years. I want to get to that point for Twins.
  6. It is crazy the moment you think you have your team back two fall down. Shows how important depth is in this league because no player plays every game any more. Plug and play lineups are thing of the past. The defense for both teams look bad the whole series. Sano had many bad plays, but he had some great scoops saving some bad throws. Aarize was just bad out there fielding this series, fumbling the ball on several plays. The Sox were not any better, in fact worse. Dropping fly balls, throwing the ball all around. I found it interesting when coming into series it was talked about good defense of Sox, but in the games I have watched their defense is not doing well. I do not follow all the metrics so maybe my eyes are not telling me the truth or maybe Sox just play bad defense against the Twins.
  7. This is something that was brought up awhile ago on here that Twins are seeking players that have good sliders and seeking them to throw them more often. This is based on the fact that slider release is similar to fastball and harder to pickup the difference but has greater movement than a traditional change up. We have several relief pitchers that main pitch is slider and Duffy changed to slider from his curve. It is how the Twins are going forward slider happy pitchers that have good movement on it. I wonder when league will adjust and a new trend will come up. I know when Wes Johnson first came in he wanted all to learn changeups, but this is like that but think it may be easier for pitchers to deceive hitters with. I hope Pineda pitches well down the stretch and is out there in post season. Twins have put a lot of faith in him signing and resigning him when full or half seasons would not be played.
  8. 96 was when I really started to follow Twins and sports generally. I was a huge fan of Bert as commentator when I was young, but in recent years felt he just became the grumpy old man that complained about how things are different and he does not like it. As I got older I learned how little he added to broadcasts on the annalist side of things, but he entertained fans with the circle campaign that many loved. He was like a broken record the last few years and personally looked forward to when he was not in the booth. Any time a guy got a hit it was always because the pitch was up, even if it was not up. He was against the shift, or any other changes to the game. He would complain about how no pitcher went 9 anymore, and the Twins were the leader of the 100 pitch count and pull him thing. So we had to hear about 100 pitches and the guy's arm will fall off every game. If he would have adapted with the game and accepted times had changed I would have liked that but he was stuck in his old ways. I enjoyed him in his prime as a broadcaster, but as he aged I was glad he dialed back his games. Personally, I wish him well with whatever life offers. I am glad he made HOF, but I am happy to see some other perspective in the booth.
  9. I would not say a middle of road player that made big plays a big trade. Yes, some teams made huge trades that paid off well, but many of the names you listed would not move the dial all too often. So they added some players, but we would never know how it would play out if they did not, would the replacement have played the same, or worse. We do not know. Lets play this year out and see. Dodger made no trades and everyone still thinks they should win the whole thing.
  10. Pineda looked good overall. The play by Sano in first was a miscue by him and had it been made maybe Pineda does not give up any runs, I never assume everything plays out the same after something is changed. I am not sure if Pineda hesitated running to first on that play assuming Sano would not run 60 feet from the base trying to get to a ball. However, you need to remember this was a RH hitter and many times now the second baseman is up the middle on those, so Sano may have reacted thinking he was only chance to get there. Overall, I am very impressed with what Sano has done at first. I was thinking it was going to be a train wreck, but he has scooped the ball very well, guess his time at 3rd helped with that. He has looked shaky at times with pop ups, but that is normal for him he always did at third too. His decisions to come off the base at times has been an issue, but that just take time and paying attention to who is running, and where are the fielders, and who is pitching. Pineda is a large man that may not be too fast and Anderson will be him every time to first base, I do not know. Regardless, team won, they fought hard and hopefully we can start a win streak today.
  11. I am not opposed to Rooker, but my question is how bad is his defense? He has been touted for hitting but his defense has been stated as an issue. I get offense is struggling, but how many more runs will he let in with poor defense. Eddie has been good from what I have seen on defense, and he is so streaky at any point he could carry the team for a week. Max, despite his terrible play the other night, is a good defender. I would be all for Rooker in games against lefties, but that is about it. As long as Buck is healthy they could drop Cave and bring in Rooker.
  12. He could do it, but unlikely. Still a little early to really watch it. Get back to me in the last week of season to see where he stands. In this short of a season a couple good weeks from anyone will make big differences.
  13. It will be interesting to see if any minor league guys get call up. I could see Cave getting demoted if Buxton will be healthy and bring up an OF. Unlike in other years where you want guys to have regular playing time and not waste time on bench, they are not getting any more time really than what they would at MLB level. Personally, I would not mind seeing Adrianza going and Gordon getting a look, unless he has not been doing well over in St. Paul. I could see Lewis getting a call to play center if Buxton gets hurt again. All that being said, it would not surprise me if no moves are made in this crazy season.
  14. Wow the hate for Rocco one year removed from manager of the year, and just a week from first place. We will still most likely make the playoffs, unless we never win again. The playoffs no matter 1st or 8th will be a crap shoot the first round. I take almost no stock into this season on what we have as a team or staff. The lack of ability to really assess prospects on who to maybe bring up or not is a huge loss. The fact that you needed to pick the 60 guys you wanted to work with right away. With the compressed schedule and difficult living situation for players it is hard to know how it is affecting each one. Yes, each team is going through it, but we also are having much more injuries than some. Less than others. Those injuries just increase the issues with the team when others are struggling, and the normal bench players are being asked to step up, and they fail to do so. I sure hope the middle infield have been educated on the rules. The bases loaded play should have had them tag the runner on second first, he would have been out, then step on the base for a double play. If they were really thinking they throw to third, tag the runner there, step on the base, then throw to second for the triple play, assuming the runner from first would not have made it to second in time. For those who do not know, you are not safe on the base if you are to be forced off of it, meaning the runners on base cannot simply stay there to avoid being tagged out but once you get the force play, then the runners are now safe to remain on the base. It is all about timing, and most people panic in that situation thinking get on the base I will be safe. Players may encounter that type of play maybe 1 or 2 times in their career, not something you practice, but educating players on rules can always help.
  15. Last year they attacked first pitches, specifically fastballs. I wonder if they are getting less fastballs based on that, which then leads either missing breaking balls or sometimes taking get me over breaking balls. It is important to note that in a normal season we would be just over a month in, fighting for first and we would say give them time. However, this year we are over half way through the season and we are in panic mode. Could the players have a different idea, or the hitting coach that is possible. It could be this year more thoughts at getting deeper into counts has been a plan to get into pens sooner with shorter starts. Now we are in the second month starters are going deeper so if that was the plan first month maybe they can change it up. I pointed out in another article that Polonco's numbers last year were loaded from first 2 months, and what he did rest of year is much more on par with what he is doing this year. I do not feel what he is doing is much different from last year, I think pitchers adjusted to him when he crushed for 2 months. Teams changed approaches against him, giving much less fast balls. In general, you are seeing much less fastballs early in counts against Twins hitters it would seem.
  16. I do not know the man. I know when he was here before he was not happy with the lack of contracts offered to him and he signed with Twins late on a bargain contract. He may have taken this out on Twins. Maybe he did some self-reflection and change is ways, maybe he just did not like being here. Maybe he will like it a second time. Personally, if you can get him for a bargain trade, I would take a flyer on to see. He has value, and to pitch well in TX is always tough. The main risk you can face is if he is a bad club house guy, but again if he was, maybe he has changed after that season with Twins.
  17. I have not read all the comments on this, a few too many to get caught up. Here is my stance. I am in support of the players choosing to do this, it is their right not to play. I am happy the Twins ownership is in support of them. However, I also agree that being the season it is, it appears to a hollow protest because the owners are out really nothing because no fans refunds, and the game will be made up so neither side sacrificed anything. They do not need to sacrifice anything to help bring more attention to issues though. Now, the sacrifice of something is what shows how strong they feel about a particular issue. I am not saying the players or the owners do not feel strong about this issue, but without the threat of loss you will never know how strong they truly feel. Personally, I am glad sports are starting to use their platforms to push the issues they want. I get very upset when people respond with "just shut up and play." These are human beings that get paid well to entertain us, and we put up large amounts of money to do that, but they should still get to have a voice and be heard. If you do not like what they have to say, then do not support their sport, but to try to shut them down and say just play the game is demeaning to the person. I love sports, and baseball in particular. However, it is just a game and my personal entertainment. I can be entertained through other means. If the players and owners want to cancel their seasons in full in protest to help push change they feel is needed, then I support. I am not entitled to have them entertain me. Last night instead of watching baseball I watched other tv, played games, read a book. I will survive if sports do not happen.
  18. I am always open for a possible addition to relief pitching at the right price, no more top prospects for a rental reliever, or starting defensive short stop that can hit for reliever, thanks Bill Smith. I am not looking for OF, unless it is Pillar for defense and price is low. I would be for replacing Adrianza but again if price is low. We will make playoffs, that is almost certain at this point. How much will replacing Adrianza help in a 3 game playoff, or 7 game playoff? Not much most likely. So not worth giving up potential years of MLB level play for maybe a game or a couple at bats. Same thing for starter, we do not need one to make playoffs so unless they will be a top 3 starter for us, I see no reason to bring them on for a prospect. For me, you should either trade for cash for rentals, or if they have at least 1 more year of control you trade for next year. No prospects for rentals in this season.
  19. I agree, that is why I would not just get rid of Garver for nothing, but if a good value trade comes along it would be worth taking it, and continue to use other back up catchers. There is value in having two good catchers that can split time pretty even. I would not give Garver away by any means, not like we did years ago to get Capps. Right now, I do not see what kind of trade that would be and to whom, but just keeping options open.
  20. Interesting on who is leading in WAR. Even more so that Rendon is, when his team is not doing well at all only 9 wins. Same with Giants in NL. So many people have wanted MVP connected to WAR, but this would for sure be a time not too. I get you may be valuable to your team, but if they are in last place, well Giants are on 6 game win streak to be second to last, should you still get MVP? I am not one to say it should always go to best player on best team, but to go to best player on the worst or nearly worst team does not make much sense either. I see this game going either Hill pitches deep and they have another pitching duel, or Hill struggles again but either he or Acala and Coulombe are asked to take a few innings regardless of how well they are doing. With Beiber on the mound if we give up 3 runs there is not much of a chance of winning and should save the pen for tomorrow.
  21. I sure hope Hill can go deep today. My guess Duffy will be saved for last inning with both Romo and Rodgers pitching last 2 days. I wonder how long they will wait to put Clippard on IL if he cannot go. Sounds like he may have nasty welt on forearm for a few days not allowing him to do much.
  22. If Garver can show some sign of hitting again, I would look to move him if possible. He is in his prime and will be under team control until he is out of his prime. If Jeffers is the primary catcher going forward as long as Garver has some value I would look to move him. I do not see a platoon with the two of them and why, if Garver is starter level and can get value in trade for him not do it. Of course this is only the Twins feel they are getting fair value. It is always nice to have two good catchers, even if both RH. The article suggested Jeffers may have better numbers against RH pitchers than LH in his career, assuming it is minor league numbers.
  23. First, were those videos taken from end of 2019 and beginning of 2020? It is a great article pointing out the differences. However, the reason I ask the question is his first couple months last years were his big slugging months and then he trailed off to what he did the first month this year, for most part. So if he kept the same swing all 2019, then I would not say it is his swing that is the difference, at least not the only difference as his slugging did not get over .500 after May last year in any month, and was below .400 one month. He was at .414 July this year, this month is terrible. The point is, if the 2019 video is from early on that season I would be interested to see if he changed later in season, or not. That would lead me to believe there is more than swing leading to this. Maybe, after his break out two months last year pitchers adjusted how they were pitching to him and now he is trying to adjust to that. The longer load will normally lead to more power, but as you stated possible late on pitches too.
  24. What I get out of this is he has better launch angle and better luck for what his results are, but overall not swinging much better because still missing half the pitches he swings at. It is interesting how just a small difference mere fractions of inches to change the launch angle is changing the outcome so much. Lets hope he can stop missing so much because he clearly is showing his margin for error is so tiny.
  25. I think the walk rate is a huge deal, and that is mostly not luck. Last year he had huge chase rate, maybe league picked up on that, or maybe his pitches are easier to pick up this year. Sure he will get some bad calls ball strike wise, but he will get some good ones too. He cannot seem to find where he wants to throw the ball. He keeps missing spots. The bad luck part of will hopefully even out, if it has not. I agree BABIP is not a true teller by itself of "luck". You need to look at hard hit and barrel rates to compare to it. If you are top tier in having weak contact, bad launch angle, and low barrel rate, but have a high BABIP, that means bad luck. But if you give up hard contact at good launch angle and hitters barrel up, you BABIP should be high.
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