Trov

I do think Jeffers has suffered a little from the mush ball. I think he has had several balls that were caught on warning track, if the ball was 2019 ball they are most likely HR and we have a very different story to tell. Now, can Jeffers start getting the ball to fall, who knows. The biggest issue I have is that he is not a top defender or a top hitter, which means we can upgrade. I know he is great at framing, which I expect in next 2 to 3 years will be pointless as there will be an electronic zone. Then he will not be able to "steal" strikes and unless he starts throwing out runners or hitting he will not bring much. I would expect after the change in electronic zone he may change his stance to get better at throwing out runners, as right now the team has worried much more about the framing. However, base stealing, at least by my eye test, seems to be up, and his lack of throwing guys out will hurt him in future when framing does not save him.

Although I agree we can get a much better bullpen, I find FIP, by itself, to be a terrible metric to measure a bullpen. Wins probability added is a much better metric if you are looking at a single stat. If you look even further, baseball reference has a "clutch" pitching stat, which takes the context of the leverage situation and how often they have done well in those situations. Which as a team we rank 4th at 1.9. I could not see how to break that down by just bullpen, but I would assume most of the "clutch" pitching comes from the pen. What that looks at is how do you when the game is close. Personally, if we are up or down large amounts and gives up a solo shot, that hurts a FIP a ton, but had no impact really on the game. However, when Smith comes in and get a 1 pitch inning ending double play with bases loaded in 1 run or tied game, we get no FIP change, but had a great outcome on the game. FIP can be an important stat in context with other stats, but with pen guys it tells very little story. I mean if you pitch the 9th inning of a 3 run game, you get 2 outs on balls in play, then give up a solo HR, and get the third with ball in play, the FIP goes off the chart, but you get the win and had no impact on the game. The revers is true as well. You come into a game down 5 strike out the side your FIP looks much better, but then in a different game you come in up 1 give up hard hit back to back doubles and then a single, giving up the lead, your FIP is the same. FIP needs context of when you are getting the strike outs, giving up walks, or HR. Without having the context if you use that one number to judge anyone you are missing a huge picture.

Well this aged well. Twins win 11-1 with that line up and pitcher on the mound. Cleveland loses their game and we back to 2 up.

They seem to have issues getting hits with RISP. Last night they got unlucky for 1 run when Arraez hit the ground rule double, had it stayed in the park that is a run. It is a combination of stringing hits together, and in what order you get these hits, and with how many outs. Sometimes a runner does not score from 2nd on a double when there is less than 2 outs because they go back to tag on what might be a catch, then it just hits off the wall and runner gets to third, but the hitter gets to second. With 2 outs you do not worry about that. Same thing with like line drives, with 2 outs off at the crack, but with 0 or 1 out you need to make sure going to land. I could also be wrong but feel like we hit into a ton of double plays, which really hurts this as like last night we had bases loaded, then hit into inning ending DP. I am not too concerned about us scoring runs, but I do agree it could be better.

Yes the fans are the voter, and in theory it makes sense as the thought is the more votes for particular players will lead to more people wanting to watch the game to see the players they voted in. However, we all remember a few years ago when there was a huge push to vote in all KC players, some would deserve it, but many did not. Personally I never watch it anymore. I do not watch any all-star type game for any league though. Most pitchers opt out so they can be ready, the fact that each team needs 1 player is dumb too. Which generally ends up being the best pitcher on terrible teams, and half the time they do not even pitch. If you enjoy the game, good for you, I am not trying to convince anyone not to watch, for me it is not worth the 3 to 4 hours of time invested. Back when you would get to see superstars from the other league you never got to in regular season then it had some value to me.

Way too much season left to say losing or winning 6 of 8 now will make the difference. If we lose 6 of 8, even if the rest of the games over that time are the same, hopefully we win more than they do, then we would only be 2 games back, with about half a season to play. Much will happen over that time.

Cleveland had a stretch of easier games, but now other than playing us, they have Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yankees until July 4th. Where we will be playing below .500 teams, outside of them until July 12th when we face Brewers, who are not playing well, but that is a long way away. Just as it normally is, the head to head games will be huge over next stretch to see where we shake out. Hopefully we win at least 5 of the 8 to expand lead and we win if not sweep some of the other series while Cleveland starts losing now that they facing better teams. I believe Cleveland is 6-12 against teams currently above .500, and if you include Angels, who were at the time above .500 when Cleveland played them, but went on crazy long losing streak, they are 6-16. This next stretch will determine if Cleveland is actually a good team, or just better than the bad teams. We are 11-13 against teams currently above .500. Still not great, but much better than 6-12. I am not saying we are that much better than Cleveland, but we do need to pay attention to who they have been playing, and who they will be.

Planning for a pitcher and how they will approach you is key. Batting is such a chess match between pitcher and hitter. If you look back at the game against Guasman, they clearly had a plan that if they fell behind, any pitch starting near knees they would take, expecting the change up. It takes a strong hitter to take expecting it to drop and not get buzzed at the knees on a FB. Buck is famous for chasing sliders low and away, fearing it will be a FB and he strikes out looking, despite it being a slider 9 out of 10 times. Twins kept making Guasman pitch it in the zone. Now, when the pitcher changes it up and starts throwing FB when you expecting change ups, you may look foolish.

I think people undervalue Max's defense and only look at offense. I am not a fan of trading established MLB guys when you are competing for struggling guys or prospects. I am not saying I hate the trade idea, I am not sold on it either. If Padres think Campusano can stick behind the plate, I doubt they give him up for a RF, even by us taking on Snell's contract. Offensive catchers are hard to find. If we are taking building for future the deal could help us, but if we talking for this year, I do not think it helps us.

I doubt he nets either Montas or Castillo, without a couple more guys, but I would be more than willing to part with him. He looks like he can hit okay, but his defense is terrible so far.

I think the shutouts need to be taken in context. Who were they facing, who was in line up, what was the overall score, how many chances did they have to score, what kind of defense plays were made in those chances, ect. Leading in being shut out but still having winning record with positive run difference does not worry me at all. The first 3 shutout were early in season when other than Buxton, no one was hitting and he did not play in 2 of the 3. Either way the first couple weeks we looked a mess. The next game was against Verlander who was dealing, and we did not put out an A lineup for sure. The 5th game was against Houston as well, similar we had not a strong line up, left a lot on base with 9 going 0-7, it was poor game, but a couple of clutch hits would have turned it around. The 6th game was very disappointing against Detroit who's starter had huge ERA going into game, but after he was out of game in 4 innings the Tigers pen is very good. 7th was again against Tigers and Skubal was dealing, their best starter not many chances and again not our A lineup. 8th game was recently against Rays, We had a better lineup, but Rays marched out a series of pretty good pitchers all 2.15 ERA or below except 1. We had some chances leaving 8 on base. Finally game 9 was against Seattle and their best starter. We had a few chances with 5 left on base and 0-5 with RISP. To me a loss is a loss no matter 1-0 or 10-9. Both losses would be by 1 run and both something was not going right. One it was the offense, the other the pitching. If they lost a game 10-1 would it be any better than 10-0 because they were not shut out? The fact that many of the shutouts were either early when no one was hitting well for us, or with not our top line up, I think that makes things better because in must win games Buck, Correa, Polonco, Kepler, Arraez, and others will not be getting "rest" days. Sometimes you will just run into a guy who is dealing or your team is just not hitting holes.

So in 2020 when we were favored with better pitching staff than Houston, and better offense than Houston, why did we not win? How did Atlanta win last year? I was talking being hot for all of the playoffs, my comment about ALCS was back before 1996 there was no wild card round only ALCS and WS, so commented back those WS years of 87 and 91 we were not favored. I am not saying we would be expected to win if we stand pat, and agree upgrading team will improve chances, but it would not mean we will win, just as not doing something will not mean we will lose in playoffs. So often so much of playoff baseball is who is hot going into it. We could go out and get the 4 best starting pitchers and 8 best bull pen arms, and 9 top hitters, and we still may not win a playoff game. Sure, we should, but nothing is for sure. That is my point. I am no way saying the team would be, or should be, favored to win in the playoffs as they sit now. But any team can win in playoffs when they get their. Yes, we have not done it for long time, going 0-18 in last 18 games, and not winning a series in 20 years, but each team is different and each game is a new one.

If he can come back healthy and is effective, I would be willing to have him on postseason roster. However, I would not be expecting anything amazing, but recent guys have been coming back from TJ surgery much faster than before. I would not count on him but he could be a surprise.

I am not advocating for this, but I find it interesting that so many are calling to bring up Alex, which I would support, because he is hot, but no one is calling to bring up Beckem despite being just as hot.

I will agree we would benefit at increasing the pitching, in particular the pen. However, I disagree with the sentiment that without adding to starting pitching we cannot win. Both Ryan and Gray could win games in the post season. Also, you never know what you can get from others. If you improve the pen, you will not need 7 good innings from everyone, and we are not likely to ask anyone to do that anyways. Plenty of times teams have won series, despite having the lessor pitching staff, and lessor offense. Both WS we won we were under dogs in the ALCS and WS. Our win over Oakland no one gave us a chance because our best pitcher was the 4th best starter in the series, but yet we still won the series. Then 2020 we had the 2 best starters going into the Houston series, everyone had us the favorites because we had Cy candidate Maneada versus journeyman Greinke, backed up by end or rotation Valdez, then Berrios versus rookie Urquidy. Going into the series we were considered the better offense and better pitching staff, but yet we were completely outplayed. Last year Atlanta really had 2 starters you felt super good about going into playoffs, Fried and Morten, with 2 top high leverage guys, out of the pen. Their offense was not great either. They got hot for playoffs and went onto WS. No one expected it. Of course upgrading starting pitching, pen and offense, would help us win, but to say it is needed to win, or even greater to assume we will, just goes against evidence. Yes, you can point to plenty of teams that when they had the better pitching staff they won, I am not saying it does not help, but there is never a guarantee one way or other. We could go out trade away all prospects for Montas, and Castillo, the best two starting pitchers out there up for trade, and the top 2 pen pitchers, Contrees from Cubs, and some other top bat, and we still could get swept out of the first round. Being best on paper means nothing, it just makes fans feel better going into the games. In terms of the offense, every team offense is always up and down. You point out how we did against 4 top starters, but then struggled against some lessor pitching, but then assume we will struggle against top pitching in playoffs, ignoring how they did against top pitching just recently. To win in playoffs you need a few guys to step up and get hot, it is true for all teams. We know anyone can get into a slump or a hot streak, you just need the team to not be in slump in playoffs.

My issue with Jeffers throwing guys out is his throws are not where they need to be. I am sure much of the stealing is both him and the pitchers, but you watch the throws to second and so often the guy covering comes off the bag the catch it. One of the throw outs he has had was at third, and had the Rays still had a challenge it would have been overturned, but that would have been on the third baseman.

He was in tears not because of how poor LeCroy did, but that he subbed him mid inning because of the stolen bases. It was an emergency roll, but they needed the second emergency guy to fill in. I have nothing against LeCroy, other than he was the guy that replaced Ortiz, because he hit right handed, and we all know how that decision played out. Again, not his fault. I really like LeCroy while he was with Twins.

For the post season, Archer could fill a middle inning role, as he is unlikely to slot as a top 4 starter, at least right now if everyone we have is healthy. That being said, we do not know health, and I am assuming the likes of Smeltzer, Winder, Ober are still pitching like they have shown so far this year. If they drop off near post season then Archer should slot in the top 4, if for nothing else his experience. I do feel the Twins could upgrade the pen overall, but would not want to overspend on any "closer" as we do not follow that normal trend.

Why would we want David Price? Would you want him as a starter or pen pitcher? Either he would be a downgrade from what we have I think. He has pitched 13.2 innings in 13 games giving up 7 runs. He does have 17Ks and only 3 walks, which is good, but he has also given up 18 hits and 3 HR which is not good in such a small amount of innings. Also he has normally been used in low leverage situations and has a negative wins probability added. I am sure Dodgers would love to trade away Price for anything to save his contract and luxury tax.

Mancini is a no for me dog, but the other two I would take, for the right price, but do not feel we need either to make the playoffs. I do agree upgrading the pen will help us the most. I am not for selling off the whole farm though to upgrade just for this season.

These things tend to work themselves out. How often when one person is ready to return someone else has an injury issue? Not saying that they do not actually have one, but for example both Polonco and Gordon have been getting some rest due to some small issues. It is possible one of them get put on DL if neither is 100% when a roster move needs to happen. If no one is going to go on DL, I would not option Gordon right now. He will not pass waivers and he does give some value to this team.

First, I am not big on Rocco, but I am not down on him either. I like that he is willing to embrace a different way to manage and win games, in particular in the regular season. I may not agree with his moves, but I get why he does them, and he very much follows analytics. For most fans they either love or hate analytics. If you hate it, you will hate Rocco. I personally like analytics, but feel some go wayyyyy to overboard with them. I feel some managers that follow them so much do not look at the game situation in front of them and just play the numbers. Something I had issue with when Gardy was here, as he was the complete opposite and did not look at the numbers at all, but always went with the old way of managing. He would pay no attention to match ups or how guys did in past. Personally, I wish Rocco would come off the antilytic approach a little and do more moves based on game situations. However, I get he has a plan and will follow it and work it best he can. I do feel it is not bad in a 162 game season, but in a best of 3, 5 or 7 series, I feel each game needs to be managed differently. Of course we will never know the results of different decisions, and we only attack decisions made that did not work out. I do feel too many fans look at single games in a 162 season and knit pick too many moves in single games without looking at big picture. Sometimes it is worth waiving white flag on 1 game to not put you behind 8 ball in next few games. I will like to see how he manages in next playoff appearance, hopefully this year, then I will form more of an opinion on him and how I feel. I can live with his regular season managing if he does well in the playoffs. His first 5 games have not work out, but part of that is not having Buck at all, and scoring basically no runs and having very little pitching success. It is hard to see if he made good moves when just about everyone played poorly. Hopefully this year we are healthy heading into playoffs, mainly Buck, Correa, and our best pitchers. Will it make the difference, who knows, but if you look at the 2019 series against the Yankees, many of the same moves people attack Rocco for, Yankees did and it work out well for them. Mainly going through several pitchers after having short starts, despite not giving up many runs. None of their starters went more than 5 innings and none gave up more than 3 runs either, using 4 or 5 pitchers each game.

So far none of those guys are living up those contracts. Not sure if that helps or hurts Correa getting close to Seager or not. He was hoping to do better than Seager this past offseason. Story had a good stretch in May for like 2 weeks going crazy, but outside of that he has been terrible. Since May 26th, he has 18 games, no HR, 4 RBI, and his OPS has droped 61 points. Really he just had a crazy 2 weeks so far this year, outside of 14 game stretch he has been terrible. I really do not know if that means people will say, well all these guys got paid a ton and Correa is only one that played up to his contract, we should pay him more. Will they say well these guys were all mistakes, at least so far, should we risk it on Correa will he drop off like everyone else?

Kepler is the perfect example of guys you need on your team to have a winning season. He has quietly had a good year. His defense is very overlooked. He is not carrying the team at any point, but he has just been solid overall also not being a black hole. You can slot him in the second half the line up most games and you never really notice how he is helping. When he was lead off we would pay much more attention to him and what he is doing, but when he regularly hitting 5 or 6 and he is doing good but not great we just kind of not pay attention. I hope he keeps it up, and maybe gets on a hot streak where he can carry the team for a few weeks. Jax has been a huge lift to the pen. He is not doing the high leverage thing, but he is getting the job done regularly and can go more than 1 inning if needed. Most people were ready to DFA in off-season. He looks like he could be a solid pen guy for next few years. I get the point of view that Correa is overlooked a little as he has just been going about his work, hitting the ball hard all the time it seems, but not having too many big moments. Buck has been hitting the big HR both in distance and at times in importance, and Correa has not had one of those type of moments with a walk off or big hit that gets the game winner, but I do not think he has been presented with that chance either. He is just doing his thing and I am surprised we are not talking more about how he is hitting over .300 now, after his low BA start, mostly due to just hitting ball hard at people.

I could not stay up for full game, but when I look at boxscore I wonder why Archer would not go out for 5th. I assume it is because they were going into 3rd time round on line up and for whatever reason he will never get a chance to go a third time round. Maybe it is the right call every time, I mean we won, and none of the pitchers used threw a ton of pitches. I am glad to see both Ryan and Gray are slotted to pitch next two games.