Trov

Electric stuff is a little vague of a term. What does that mean? Like do they need a certain velo, movement, number of K/9? I did see a comment of 5 WAR being a benchmark. At least that is something we can look at. I see an innings mark required of 200 and low ERA. If we go by that, only 4 guys last year broke the 200 innings mark, Of those 4, Two do not reach the 5 WAR. If we go by just the WAR there is 12 full time starters with a WAR of over 5 last year. Some of them only averaged 6 or less innings per start. So far not too many 'ace' pitchers by definition of the few responses we have if you combine them. With just WAR as standard we have a dozen, so that sounds like decent amount. I do not know how many would be described as electric stuff though. Of the top few WAR guys I think most people would say fall under 'ace', Zach Wheeler, Walker Buehler, Robby Ray(although not until last year) Max Scherzer, but then you have Wade Miley, not an ace, then Garrit Cole, and a few more 'ace' type guys. I would agree there are 'ace' which to me is someone like Scherzer, Verlander, guys that have been top of the league in pitching year in and year out, and will go deep into most games with low scores. I think part of it is a mindset of fans. Do you expect to when when they take the mound each time, with very few hits allowed? However, I think what most fans are talking about on here when they talk about 'ace' is they really mean a top of league performer. Maybe they are one of the best for a year or two, but are they a true 'ace' most likely not. When I see the "electric stuff" I think people are saying they just look in command and not getting it done through junk balls, ala Jamie Moyer who actually cracked 5 WAR 3 times late in his career. I bet if people listed who they think of when they think 'ace' they might be surprised where they really fall in rankings of WAR, innings per start and so on.

If you look just at on field performance you would say it was a bad trade. However, no way do we make the deal without expecting to sign a SS, like they did Correa. Maybe they do, but I doubt it. I agree getting Donaldson out of the clubhouse may be an upside. The Yankees are doing fine with him there, but maybe the honeymoon period is starting to end with recent White Sox series, which they are now on a 3 game losing streak. I have long said that in baseball chemistry plays a much bigger roll than any other sport. You spend all day every day with the same guys for hopefully 8 months. You get no weekends away from them, you shower with them, change with them, fly with them, take busses to games with them on the road, not sure if they will still share hotel rooms or not. My point is you do not get away from them. If you have a personal issue with someone it will eventually cause issues. We have seen teams in past have fist fights during the season. Do not be surprised if Yankess start to struggle if they blow up at some point too.

A couple of things. First, I agree I wish more guys would work on hitting the holes in the defense. However, for the last several years guys were taught to hit it over the infield defense and try to hit HR or doubles off wall. They were looking at launch angle not direction of hit. That led to guys not working really trying to pick a pitch and drive pitches the other way. When you never do it, hard to ask someone to do it out of no where. Also, MLB pitchers have increased velo over the years and increased movement, sure it is not too easy to just say I am going to hit that hole, some of the HOF could but they were very special guys. Now, as it has been discussed the team is starting to make adjustments to the lack of power in the league due to the ball, so they are working on doing exactly what you discuss. Now that hitting it over the OF is not as likely they are adjusting. In terms of the bunting, it comes down to fact most guys never practice it or do. If you never do it, hard to just step and do it. I do wish they were coached it more, as I believe if you can catch the pitch you can bunt the pitch. Part the issue when they do not practice it or they try to do it quickly to catch them off guard the hitter does it wrong. Sometimes they try to make it still a perfect bunt. It really comes down to teaching the hitters how to do it. You might see it more as the season goes on. The old thought is hit a HR who cares about a single. But now that HR are down, teams are going to be more willing to take the single.

I find it interesting how many people are for someone else. I think most of them are always thinking someone better may be out there. That may not be the case, and a bad signing can set your organization back for years. No way has this FO set us back. Are we at where we all want, maybe not, but I have seen many FO guys make terrible moves and set teams back. Once you have a solid foundation I say go with it, until it is broken. You will have up and down years, but overacting to just make a change because of a down year or a couple of moves that did not work out will cause the team to fall apart. Every time you change up FO you change up how teams want to build the organization. That means the style and type of players you look for. If you change that up too much there is no direction for the organization and you just spin in circles. We are just seeing the players that were developed under this front office start to come up. Give them some more time, because we have not been terrible overall and appear to be growing.

First, he is 100% opting out if he is healthy the full year, so no need to talk to him about what his thoughts are. The deal when signed everyone knew it was a 1 year deal if he was health and performed near his career norms, so unless he regresses on that end, or is injured, he will be opting out. That being said, if we are in line for playoffs we do not trade him for prospects. If there is a trade upgrade at a position of need for the playoff run and you are set that Lewis will do the job, then maybe you trade Correa to upgrade at the deadline for this year, not for years down the road prospects. To address your second question, any team that makes playoffs can win the WS. but was Atlanta the favorite last year? Was the Nationals in 2019? Was the Red Sox in 2018? Was the Astros in 2017? I think you know where I am going. Rarely does the on paper favorite win the WS. I mean in both the Twins WS wins we were not the favorite to win them entering the season or entering the playoffs, or even entering the WS. To address the third question, sure Lewis in his SSS looks the part, but why make your team worse, even if Lewis is competent he is not Correa at this point, if you truly are trying for a ship? To address the forth question, trading Correa at the deadline would not affect future signings because everyone in baseball knew what the deal was, it was a 1 year dealing giving Correa insurance if he gets hurt or has a bad down year. Summary, I do not trade him if team is on pace to make playoffs. He has great experience in playoffs and defense is key in playoffs and he is one of best, if not the best defender in game right now, and he can hit as well. He may not be MVP hitter, but he is above average to go with elite defense. Unless someone is willing to give up front end starter this year, and prospects down the road for years to come no way do I listen, but if you can make the team better this year and years to come, then I would listen.

Glad to see Steer get the move up. Also glad to see Kirilloff have a good week. I still think he should stay down for at least a month of sustained good at bats before they look to bring him back to MLB level. We are not in need for him right now, as we have plenty of options in LF and 1B. He needs to show that he can get back to making hard contact and having good at-bats before he starts taking some from guys that have been.

I am happy with his SSS output, but his value is very limited. He hits LH pitching only. Sure, that can be very helpful for pinch hitting or the few starts against LH starters. However, that is all he is good for, and if he starts to falter on that, then he has little value. I am not saying he need to be cut, but he is still on the short list guy to be cut off roster when 60 man IL guys come back. I do feel if you have an almost complete team he is that bonus guy for big pinch hit at bats in big games. I would fully be willing to roll with him for that roll in the playoffs. Knowing you can bring him in late against a LH guy and may hit it out is nice to know, and may affect how a team uses their pen.

For me the measure of a good front office is if they routinely have talent coming up through the system. Every front office will have good and bad FA signings, trades, and first round picks. It is about the overall how is talent evaluated and developed. You cannot make snap decisions on any single move or season. The FO has made some flop first round picks, but they have had some later picks that are moving up prospect lists, and most importantly on pitching. They were in part brought in on the ability to develop pitching. If you look we have a lot of now pitching depth, and each level has good pitching prospects. None may be super high end looking to them, but are performing well. I am a fan of that. I am not a fan of the power only first round guys that are not doing much. However, that happens with the first round flops, all teams have them. We still are getting good talent, and with pitching talent teams are always looking to bring in more pitching so having depth at that can fill in the misses at other positions. I would extend them as I like overall what I have seen. Are they perfect, no. Point me to a FO that never has a missed pick, bad trade, bad FA signing. I am waiting.

So you address 3 specific starters, Montas, Kyle Hendricks, I assume, and Nathan Eovaldi as 'ace' types we should target, and you say Joe Ryan is not one. Basically saying all three would slot ahead of Ryan. First, why do you rank them all ahead of him at this point? Is it because Ryan is a rookie and no long term track record? Also you say Berrios is not an ace, but a guy like him would be needed for the Twins, so going to look at him too. Maybe you are right that any of those guys would be the best starter. Montas, 9 starts, 50.2 innings, ERA 3.55 ERA+ 100, FIP 3.30, WHIP 1.007 9.8K/9 Hendricks, 9 starts 49.2 innings, ERA 4.89 ERA+ 84 FIP 5.52 WHIP 1.329 6.3K/9 Eovaldi, 9 starts 48.1 innings, ERA 4.10 ERA+ 99 FIP 5.51 WHIP 1.159 9.9 K/9 Berrios, 9 starts 47.1 innings, ERA 4.75 ERA+ 80 FIP 4.50 WHIP 1.437 6.7 K/9 Ryan, 8 starts 43.1 innings, ERA 2.28 ERA+ 159 FIP 3.24 WHIP 0.992 8.7 K/9 That is this season stats so far. I am using them because I want the pitcher they are now, not the pitcher they were before. Two of the pitchers are on the wrong side of 30 as well, which is when pitcher normally regress, so even if you look at career numbers, I would argue there is no reason to expect that. However, a quick snapshot of career WAR, I know not best to judge pitchers on but they are being compared to each other. Montas 6.5 in 5 full season, this being his 6th. Hendricks, 21.6 in his now 9th season, Eovaldi, 14.6 in his now 10th season. Berrios, 11.3 in his now 7th season. Ryan not even a full season is at 1.6, with 1.3 in his 8 starts this year. Judge how you will, but at this point I would say Ryan is the best out of all of them. Slightly less K/9 than Montas and Eovalid, but every other number Ryan is better on. Will it remain, maybe not. In terms of innings per start he is right on par with all of them too, but Berrios did have on start that went .1 innings. Now compared to other starters on our team would Montas be an upgrade, yes he would, but my point is that Ryan is doing just as well as any of the listed trade targets. Does he have the track record no, but even these guys outside of Hendricks none have a huge track record for a career. Hendricks though has dropped off his last 2 years being on wrong side of 30.

I keep reading in comments from the offseason and this season about Twins need to trade for an 'ace'. That they do not have one and need one to win. I have yet to see anyone really define what they think makes an 'ace'. Therefore, I am asking for people to comment and define an 'ace'. That way we can see if the Twins have one, if one can be brought in via trade. I would prefer more defined terms and not general terms, but something we can actually look into to see. Part of the reason I am asking this is I am thinking what some people call an 'ace' is very different than others, and it may not even be what people call an 'ace' is available for the Twins to trade for. So please even if you do not agree the Twins need an 'ace' lets get the Twins Daily commenters definition of an 'ace' as it pertains to pitching in baseball.

Who would you label as an 'ace'? What criteria makes someone an 'ace'? In this day in age, I bet you will be hard pressed to find what used to be an 'ace'. Also, do you expect the Twins to pitch someone of that capability that way? We have not seen the team run many guys out for even a 6th inning let along 7 or more. Maybe as the season goes on they would, but so far they are very much willing to pull guy after 6. Would you call Joe Ryan an 'ace' so far? Who do you think are available for a price the Twins are willing to pay in prospects that you would call an 'ace'? It is easy to say go get one, but the top teams that have them will not be trading them away most likely, because they will keep them. There are some good pitchers being talked about, but at least what I would say 'ace' none are in the talking points. I guess in part it will depend on what you define as an 'ace'.

It will make game more exciting because as the time between pitches get reduced more action is happening. Will it mean more pitches in play, no it will not, but we will not see a pitcher without anyone on stand there for 30 second plus shaking off the catcher, or the hitter walking around muttering to himself. It will get ball, get the sign and pitch. Then when on base you will not see endless no competitive throws over to the base or stepping off to look at the runner, or the spin around to the guy on second without a throw. The stepping off and asking to go through signs again because you cannot remember what the pitch is, or just you want to throw something different. Also, I think it will lead to more action on the bases, I could be wrong, but after two throws over, if you try a third you need to get the out or it is a balk. So I could see some cat and mouse games using the clock to try and get the runner going a second early, or something like that. Overall, cutting down the length of the game will keep people more engaged in the game. Cutting down 24 min simply because of imposing a clock is a good amount of time that people are watching nothing happen.

He has clearly raised his value as a trade piece if needed. He can play CF competently and get on base. That used to be all some wanted in a CF.

I would agree they have a legit chance to compete in the central. Chicago has dealt with similar injuries to starting rotation and lineup, maybe not the number of injuries we have had, but to starters. They have played similar schedule to us. I do not think the Gurdians will hang with us both. Chicago will expect big things when they get some injured guys back. The issue with Chicago is they are a bad fielding club and in close games that will hurt them sometimes. They have some good pitching, their pen has struggled at times. So will the Twins keep pace? I think they can and will. They have shown their own improvement in hitting overall, and shown depth that they could live with some injuries, as they have, and still compete. Now, do I have faith they are a top team, no they have issues that other top teams do not. Can they fix those things, or get on a hot streak in the playoffs sure. Just as they could lay an egg in the playoffs with the best possible team.

I will agree you can always use more pitching. We have already used several starters in the first month plus of the season. Is Evaldi the right guy? As I say with all trades if the price is right. I would not give up much to get him at this point. He is not pitching well overall, but his history of doing so would give me some willing to use him. He would not be the first SP to fall off the cliff though in his early 30's. Lopez I would be willing to take on as well. He may be like many starters that when they get into that full time pen roll runs with it. Liam Hendriks comes to mind, along with many others. That being said I give up nothing major for him. Do not buy high on a guy that has never had long term success in the MLB. He has the possible stuff but for all we know this is SSS out of pen and as year progresses he falls apart. I wrote a long forum on the 1st base situation. I am not a fan of trading for anyone at this point. Bell would be a fine piece, but I think he is more smoke than fire. He is in his 6th year with a career WAR of 6.8. He only has two years of WAR above 1. Last year he did have a 3.1 WAR, and this year at .8. He could be an upgrade, but I think his numbers look a little more flashy than what his career has long been. He has also hit into 12 double plays this year. He has shown flashes of stardom in past only to have long stretches of poor hitting. His defense is average at best too. I would be worried we would be buying high on him when we have several possible options. Arraez has actually a higher OPS than Bell right now. Sure he has 3 less HR, and 3 less doubls, neither have a triple, but Arraez also has 50 less plate appearances and only 1 double play hit into. Yes, Bell has a better defense right now, but Arraez just started to play it, I would expect some improvement over the year if he stays there. Kirolloff may come back, or other guys could look to transition into it. My main point is, Bell does not appear to be the upgrade some will want, and if it means less playing time for Arraez overall, I am not a fan of it.

I am all for the pitch clock, or something that keeps the game moving. I love the guys like Joe Ryan who get the ball and ready to throw it. Mark Burhle was that way too. His games were so fast because he did not take forever between pitches when no one was on base. The strict pitch clock may not be the perfect way to do it, but it is not just the length of the game, but the long time between pitches. This is not just on the pitcher but the hitter to. He will take a ton of time sometimes. As players start to get used to it, they will adjust. Keep the action going is what I say.

I have not seen every one of Celestino's hits over past few weeks. However, the ones I have seen may not have been rockets but they are far from just pure luck as well. He has hit the ball softly to the opposite field in may of them. He appears to be trying to find the hole in the defense and finding it. Now, as teams adjust to him, will he adjust to that? That is really the question. I would feel more on your side if all the hits were infield hits, or soft pop ups that were finding holes in outfield. I have seen a lot of softer liners and ground balls to the holes in the infield. I would take a 85MPH grounder through a hole that he meant to hit it at, than a 110 MPH right at the defender for an out. Hitting the ball hard will generally lead to more hits, and more extra base hits, but hitting the ball through a hole because no one is standing there will always produce a hit. I am not advocating for him to be regular starter, but also I do not feel he is getting just lucky as well.

Twins are in first place right now. They have played a light schedule for the most part. In about two weeks we start to play some higher class of opponents. As of right now our first base position has been worst in the league overall. Only Arraez has managed to hit, but his defense has not been good, but not terrible compared to other positions he has played some this year. First, should the Twins make a trade for a first baseman? We have had several guys play over there and Arraez is only one that has hit, and none have shown amazing defense to make up for lack of hitting. So should we look to bring one in? If we did, that would mean Arraez would move off of first. Do we want that? His bat is good enough to play at this level, even though some not happy his lack of power. With his poor defense at every other position so far this year, do we want him playing defense anywhere else? Should he just DH then? If we do not make a trade and do not want Arraez to play at first, who do we use? Kirilloff has not done anything, but had a couple of good games in AAA, can we wait to see if he starts hitting? Sano is out for at least another 45 days or so, based on going on 60 day DL. Miranda looks lost at the plate, and defense not there yet much either. Really, I do not see much in the team to step up if you do not want Arraez to play there. Is it too early to make a trade? Very few teams would be selling right now, aside from a few teams. I see maybe nine teams that would be giving up right now, my guess less would admit it. Oakland, Reds, Pirates, Cubs, Rockies, Diamond Backs, KC, Detroit, and Nationals. Of those teams, I would say six have traditional first base guys that would be up for a trade. Reds, Pirates, KC, Rockies, Nats, and Diamond Backs. I am limiting to traditional because why would we trade for a non traditional first base when we have plenty that could do that. Reds have Votto, who up until this year I would have been more than happy to have, but age may have finally caught up to him. He has negative WAR, sub .300 obp and OPS of .413. That is worse than just about all we are putting out there now. KC has Carlos Santana, who is putting up similar numbers, so he is out in my mind. Pirates have Daniel Vogelbach, who is putting up career numbers in short sample size, and his defense is not considered good, just okay. Diamond Backs have Christian Walker, who is putting up career HR numbers, but rest is nothing super special, and his defense is average as well.. Rockies have our old friend CJ Cron who is off to good start, but much like most Rockies, the home road split is crazy. He is also under contract for 2 years, therefore I think he would be out. Rockies may not even look to move him, but they really should if a team thinks he will put up those numbers for them. That leaves the Nats and Josh Bell. Many have brought up his name. If we are looking to make a trade he would be the best available right now. He is putting up career numbers for batting average and OBP but not OPS. Meaning his power could still improve. His BB to K ratio is more walks than K's, way out of line with his career, has he made a change or just SSS and will regress a bit there? We have seen this from him in past in 2019 where he had huge drop off in second half. He also is below average on defense, so you need this level of offense to sustain going forward. A few questions come up. Is he available for trade? Most likely, but Nationals may try to wait out a bit to see if more bidders come along. How much would it take to get him? In part that may depend on if the Nats are willing to trade him now or wait it out to see if other teams want his bat. With DH for all teams there could be a lot of teams willing to take him for DH purposes as his defense is poor. If I was the Nats I keep him until closer to deadline and see how many teams get into the bidding, assuming he keeps hitting well. Overall, I would say if we could get Bell right now for low cost I would do it. Use his offense to help ride out some wins here. However, I find it unlikely that will happen. It will be interesting to see how our first base position develops over the next couple months, and if any other first basemen become available. Maybe our internal options develop, or Arraez learns to play there better. It is clearly right now our biggest need, I just am not sure there is a cheap clear upgrade there right now. I would expect Bell to regress back to his career norms, which on offense is still better than what we have been running out there, but he is still not amazing.

I fully agree with your comments on the signing bad long term contracts. Yes, the Twins can afford to sign some guys to long term deals and maybe afford a larger payroll, people need to remember even though owners have billions they are still business people and losing money as a business is not a good business. I have said for years, to sign a player to a long term deal you need to be sure they are the right guy. Signing a guy like Donaldson to 4 year deal like they did, if he was terrible they are not tied to him for years playing a bad player. Look at some of the deals of future HOF Pujols and Cabrera, both of which did not win a WS with their teams they signed huge deals with. Once Pujols hit age 36, he was getting paid at least 25 mil a year, an extra mil each year, and had negative WAR. Meaning LA was paying him over 25 mil a year to be a player that should not be playing. Cabrera hit 34 and was getting paid 28 mil or more and has been negative WAR. Those are just two examples of guys that are likely to go to HOF and shows how much of a drop off you get when they hit mid 30s. Locking up Correa on a 10 year deal will have at minimum a couple of dead years, but as a SS most likely his defense will start to drop before his bat does. Then you are shifting him to a lower impact position. Some teams can afford to do this, but most cannot. Now, if Correa would take a 7 year deal at top pay I would think that is a risk the Twins can take, but reports are he is looking for 10 plus. The first 5 years most likely you are getting fair value, the next couple is a bit more of a risk, but last three is not likely to be anywhere close to good value, and now you are stuck with them. Remember when everyone was mad about Joe's contract at the end? Everyone would say same about Correa by the end. Now, if the Twins are willing to take that risk of being very overpaid the last few years and believe the first 5 to 7 years will be worth bad years, then go for it. However, that is something people need to think about is down the road. I am not even getting in on pitching as they are even more a risk when signing them long term.

I feel June will tell us a lot about this team and if we are just an upper middle class team that will fade a bit or not. It is still hard to judge this team because we have pitched well, but not facing top offensive teams, so is it a product of who we are facing. We did hold Cleveland down who was one of the better offenses the first month though. However, our offense has not been clicking and dealing with injuries and slow starts I do have some optimism they will start to hit more when people get healthy and heated up. The main issue has been hitting with runners on base. It looks like the team may be heating up some on offense. Eventually the starting pitching will start to have some bumps and the pen will have some rough runs too. We just need to have the offense going when some of that happens.

I think Larnach is doing rehab in AA because they are much closer to where Twins will be this weekend that he may be getting called up and can take a 3 hour car ride instead of having to find a flight from Omaha. I hope he does come back and swinging like he was to be every day LF. I like Gordon overall, but Larnach is a much better hitter when swinging well. Good to see Lewis staying hot. I hope he starts to force the teams hand in next month. Balazovic is starting to worry me. I am glad we can take our time with him to get back to what he was, but this has been a stretch of not very good starts. SWR is not dominating as he was, but maybe starts like this are best for him. He was not dominating had runners on but did not give up a bunch of runs. I am looking forward to see him called up to AAA after break.

Donaldson is performing better in NY than he did in his two years with Twins. He has better dwar right now in 35 games than his whole time as a Twin. He is doing better than he did in MN. It could be the change of team, the different line up, or change in how he is used on defense that is making these numbers. We do not know if he would be performing at same level. It could be he just was not right for what Twins wanted, or maybe his legs are staying healthy in NY.

I have always liked him when healthy. I think he will need to stay on the 40 man now as he has shown enough that any team will be willing to snag him. I think he could be one that fills in during some injuries and showcases himself to either stick with team, or be a trade piece at deadline. I think now he is entering his prime he will have a couple of decent years. It was just we could not count on him at all after last year.

I would agree that Urshella has been good on the defense side of the ball. He has missed some plays but made some crazy good plays too. However, on offense he has not been good, despite some HR. He has failed to get it done with runners on base, kind of reminding me of Trevor Plouffe, hits when bases are empty but once there is someone he will fail. Sanchez has been better at catcher than I expected. On offense he is heating up and will hit plenty of HR as season goes on. He has been hitting the ball hard most of the season. What I wish he would improve on is his chases. There is a fine line between not taking a third strike and expanding the zone too much. I know he will continue to swing when there are 2 strikes as he will not allow a called third strike on him in most at bats. I had issues with him continuing to hit middle of line up when he was not doing much, but right now ride the hot streak.

I think Kirilloff will need to show a sustained run of solid at-bats. I doubt is about the stat line, but how is his swing looking. All year at MLB level it was terrible with no good hard contact and everything into the ground. Even his hits were weak. With having some extra base hits maybe he is figuring out how to live with his writs, or maybe he just had a couple good games. I would give him another week or two before making in moves, unless there is another injury to someone at MLB level. We can use an offensive boost, but not so bad that we rush him back. Let him take the time figure out his swing again.