Trov

One thing I would point out is not every year is the same teams in the top 8 of payroll, or same in bottom 8. There are a few mainstays of course, but you point out San Diago who just a few years ago was a bottom 8 payroll, and Houston like a decade ago was as well. Which in part leads to your point, that what happens is teams decide they cannot compete at some point and cut payroll and "tank" for a few years and keep their top prospects in the minors saving service time, until they are ready to make a big push. Teams like Cubs and Houston have proved it worked to get a ship so others have copied. Even when they are bigger market teams they still may go this path. It is not always the top paying teams that win the ship, but yes they do generally make the playoffs over the lower paying teams. However, sometimes the top paying teams, Angels, get it wrong, and lower paying teams, Rays get it right. I am not saying the system is not broken, because it basically is, but unlike NBA one player does not swing a team from loser to winner. It takes a full squad, and that is where smarter higher spend of some teams gives them huge advantage, because if they guess wrong on 1 guy they can try again, but if lower market teams guess wrong, they get set back for years.

No they do not have too much starting pitching. Yes, they have more than 5 but no team ever just uses 5. Some if needed could get transitioned to pen roll, where many starters end up excelling. Some will get injured, and some could get traded. There may be a 40 man roster crunch and you may lose one or two through waivers, but none of the ones you may lose are top of rotation guys. Smeltzer will be DFA. Despite having a decent run, he was getting by with smoke and mirrors. He has high chance of passing through waivers and if not, no huge deal. Overall it will work itself out. Maybe the players will not be as happy about spending time in minors until injuries give them starts, or being in pen, but such is the nature of the game.

If he continues to struggle the rest of the season like he has over last few weeks, then maybe he opts in next year, but his numbers are still very good at a position of high need. I would still expect a team willing to give up long term deal if he bounces back to normal the rest of the year. Maybe he opts in, and if he does I will not be upset at all.

Brooks Lee is expected to be a quick mover through the system. In part why Steer was even easier to be traded. Steer was blocked at MLB by guys, and had someone like Lee most likely nipping at his heels. I bet he starts next season in AA.

Nick is doing what the average drafted player you want from them. Of course with the high draft status you want him to be an all-star, but he has the look of being a MLB player for several years. Will he be a superstar? Doubtful. However, he should be a starter for someone, or at minimum a utility guy. I would agree if he was not drafted 5th overall we would be very happy with what he is doing. However, look at the number 1 and 2 drafted in that draft. One did not sign, medicals, but even after neither have made MLB and not likely to. Many after him have not made the majors either. Could we have done better, sure, Trea Turner was there, personally he was who I wanted them to draft, but we are at least getting some MLB value from our player and we could be getting none. He is 26, and could have a good 4 or 5 MLB seasons. Maybe more. Some of the best MLB guys did not break into the league until then. It is rare, and do not expect it, but you never know. Either way he can help us, or now that he has shown he has value he could be traded if needed.

First, the Twins only go to a long relief roll if game is way out of hand early on. Then they will generally burn the end of pen guy for 2 to 3 innings, but rarely will they look to have a guy pitch more than that out of the pen. Could Smeltzer be a long relief guy sure, but Twins do not like to have "long" relief guys unless you are losing big. Smeltzer walks too many guys and gives up way too many HR to be a high leverage pen arm, so you really only want him to come in when losing big. I would not want to waste a pen spot on a guy you only want to through out there when losing big.

I would not look to have Duran the "fireman" roll. He can strike guys out at high rate and rarely walks, but he also is not always having clean 123 innings. He seems to give up a week single a lot of times, which if you need to put out a fire you do not want that. I think Twins will keep putting him out there to start innings. I would agree using him against heart of lineup before 8th may be good idea than just save for 8th.

If it helps him stay on the field good for him. I wonder why they did not look into this last surgery or why it just started to be an issue in his early 20's. My guess his bone did not get longer just this past year, I could be wrong not a doctor or anything. Either way I hope all the luck to him on his recovery.

Personally I am happy with the deals. They brought in 2 controllable pitchers, a rental pen arm, and a backup catcher, all without giving up any "top" prospects that are near MLB ready. Either Lopez or Mahle could be dealt before their contracts end if we wanted to, which would soften any lost prospects, or we use them all next year for another hopeful playoff run. Steer plays a position that is not a need for a couple of years, barring injuries of course, but there are others that can fill in. The pitchers are all a couple of years from being ready, and we never know how would pan out, but we have a lot of depth in the lower minors that was going to get figured out at one point. None of them are highly touted but doing well. CES may be the biggest peice going out, but he is mainly a bat, and again at position not of major need right now. I also have concerns his bat will not carry in the higher levels, which is why he is also not a top prospect because of fear his chase rate will get exploited as he faces better pitching. These are the types of deals I was hoping would be made. Improve the team, but do not sell the farm or your future.

I am greatly concerned with his wrist, being that our only reports are that no additional surgery will be helpful. I was hopeful when he came back and was hitting the ball hard he had learned to play through it, but looks like might be something to haunt him rest of career.

Overall I like this deal. He still has years of control and can be flipped later on like we did with Rogers or Brewers did with Hader to get some return back if we need to. That is why years of control is so important. We did not give up anyone that will hurt us over the next 2 to 3 years either.

I think he should just opt out of the All star game. Let a replacement in. I am sure he still gets what ever bonus if any for getting selected. He does not need to take any swings or run down any fly balls or run bases in this game. I am not for putting on IL as they would have already if they felt it was best thing to do, but to play in all star game makes no sense if he can only play 2 out of 3 games for us.

A question to add, some players in recent years have started some celebrations, such as watching the big HR go out, bat flips, or saying things to opposing team. This has led to some fans loving the celebrations, but others saying it is classless and violates "unwritten" rules of celebrating and to "act like you have been there before", whatever that means. Personally, I find the calibrations entertaining. I find the players and fans that are against them have poor complaints. If a team hits a walk of hit, the whole dug out comes out to celebrate, even in low meaning games, but no one gives the players crap for that. Maybe if players did a little more entertaining celebrations more fans would watch. NFL changed their celebrations rule and I find it more entertaining. These are adults, we do not need to worry if their feelings will get hurt, if you do not want to see a celebration, do not let the opposing team do something to celebrate.

I was thinking about this after watching a video of a minor league team that does all kinds of crazy extra things to entertain. This topic has come up some with recent rule changes coming up to limit shifts, increase base stealing, and generally to increase hits on balls in play as well. Some rules also for pace of play like pitch clocks are being used in minors. These rules create many debates on if they should be imposed or not. Some of those debates are about strategy of defense, or changing the way the game is played. There has been much debate over the years about strike outs up, hits down, home runs, and the three true outcomes. There was an article about Arraez and his ability to get hits and how he is fun to watch, but then we talk about how guys like Buxton who hit barely over .200 with a ton of strike outs, but hits for mainly HR and extra base hits are just as valuable to a line up for winning. Now my question is not exactly an either or, as winning generally can be entertaining, and losing is less so. For example last night I stopped watching around 8th inning, the game was not entertaining. Personally, I watch baseball, and sports generally for entertainment. Of course I want my team to win, but if the game was at least entertaining I am not as upset when we lose, but if the game was boring I am more upset when we lose, and more ehhh when we win. Now, not just in baseball but other sports, the coaches job is to win, and the players jobs are to win, normally because winning brings in fans, at least for the home fans. However, that is not always the case, look at the Rays who win year in and year out, but still do not get full parks. Either way, the coaches and players are generally judged on their ability to win. Some players fans enjoy because they are entertaining, the La Tortuga in years past. However, for each win for one team, means a loss for another, so the solution to getting fans to watch games, no matter the sport, is not just winning games. So I would conclude the point is to entertain, because if fans are not entertained (cue Gladiator Russel Crow) then fans will not watch, even if a team is winning. That being said, are you just entertained by a team winning, or what entertains you about the game? There are concerns from the MLB that viewership is down for several reasons. One, younger fans have too short attention span to sit through a 3.5 hour game where less balls are put in play, and less action in the game, with sometimes over a minute between pitches to a hitter. As the game changes over the years, less innings from starters, less caring about strike outs from hitters, less stolen base attempts or hit and runs, some feel the entertainment has gone down, because it is basically a home run derby every game with a bunch of strike outs in between. Does the teams have an obligation to gives us entertainment? Should managers be expected to leave in starters because we paid to watch a certain player pitch? Should manager be expected to play a guy like Buxton in CF more often for us, or should we be fine with letting him get rested. It is regular players will get rest, but that used to not be the case. In the NBA teams were getting attacked for resting healthy players to allow them to be ready for other games. Fans pay good money to watch certain players in NBA, but is it the same for MLB? Does anyone go to the games to see a certain pitcher or hitter, or does it not matter to you as a fan? I am just looking to see what entertains people and how should we look at it, if we should demand teams play them more.

I personally wish he would just turn it down all together. I do not know his medicals, but if we can get him 5 days of full rest maybe that will help his knee for us. Maybe it will not do much, but why do we rest him 1 out of every 3 games or so, with DH half of the games he seems to play, only to have him take 1 or 2 at bats in a pointless game?

Yes the three team deal would be most likely situation. They are rare, and even more rare at deadline.

It is actually his second stretch of poor games. He had three in a row at end of May beginning of June where he blew 2 saves and picked up 3 losses giving up 8 runs, 7 earned, in 1.2 innings. If you go back to that run of games he has pitched 15.1 innings in 16 games. 7 saves with 4 blown saves, 15 ER 16 total runs, 18K 3BB with 4HBP(not sure if HBP are factored into FIP but they should) 1HR. Prior to his first run of bad games, he gave up 1 Run in 21 innings in 20 games having 17 saves in 17 chances. 22K 4BB and 3HBP and 0 HR. Just like any pen arm you can look at the whole, or in parts. Tyler Duffy similar had about the same amount of bad games, 8 games where he gave up a run. Rodgers has given up runs in 11 games. Duffy has pitched 37 inning in 33 games, and Rodgers has pitched 35.2 innings in 36 games. Duffy lower K rate with about 9 per 9, Rodgers is at 10.3 per 9. Duffy has walked 2.7 per 9, Rodgers 1.8, but Rodgers has hit 7, Duffy has hit none, so the amount of free runners Rodgers has allowed more than Duffy, with 14 in less innings than Duffy. Rodgers may not walk too many, but he hits as many as he walks. The big difference is Duffy has allowed 6 HR, Rodgers just 1. My point is, they are very similar in numbers other than the HR, but just about everyone has lost faith in Duffy, but many of those same people would love to have Rodgers back like he would be the savior. Right now baseball reference has Duffy with a 0.1 WAR and Rodgers as a -0.1 WAR. However, if you look at the WPA Rodgers is at 0.3 and Duffy is -0.3. On thing to also remember, with Rodgers, any loses he takes on the road, most likely he stopped pitching because game was over due to walk off, and his numbers could have been worse, where Duffy either finishes inning or gets pulled as he rarely has been asked to finish games. My main point is Rodgers since end of May has been ehhh but some people on here act like his is the best closer in baseball. Would he be better than some in our pen, yes, is he better than what Pagan has done, hell yes, but he is not lights out all the time.

I did add the results of the wins and losses earlier. In games Pagan pitched we are 21-11 with him getting the win in 3 and loss in 3. Rodgers got loss in 4 of his. Not all the losses are on Pagan, he had terrible run where several were, but some he did his job and others did not, because does not always come in in 9th with lead. I am not saying Pagan is doing well at all, because he is not, but there is no reason to think if we had Rodgers over him much else would be different because Rodgers would have similar stretches with the Twins. The fact that during his poor run in July the team is still getting wins just shows he was in games where team had large leads. Like giving up 2 runs but getting a save. Was it a good outing or bad? He got the save but gave up 2 runs, so job done because as long as he did not give up 3 he did his job. Personally, I do not care how he is giving up runs. I could care less if he is giving up HR and not walking guys if he is giving up runs they all count the same. You argue he is getting "unlucky" because his defense is not making plays, but where the balls hit in areas someone could make the play? I did not see them so I do not know. I find it crazy that just because a pitcher did not give up a HR but gave up a hit it was luck by the hitter. For all we know the deep fly balls were high off the wall and just missed HR by inches, is that luck by hitter or pitcher? What if one of those deep flies would have been a HR in just about every other park and would have resulted in BS, is that luck by hitter or pitcher? Maybe the short ground balls to OF were worm burners, or maybe the hitter saw a hole and drove it through it hitting right where he wanted, is that luck? Without seeing each hit and PA it is hard to say Rodgers is getting unlucky. Maybe he is, but the fact is he is giving up runs right now. The last 3 years his ERA has been more than 1 point higher than his FIP, is that 3 years of bad luck? You do not have 3 years of bad luck, you just have someone that they give up hits that are not HR. Rodgers clearly is an outlier of the ERA to FIP situation, or you can just say he is always unluck that his defenses do not know where to stand.

Very few competing teams will be willing to trade away bullpen arms we will want in return. Unless the team is super deep on bullpen arms no one will make a whole in their pen to have a small upgrade at 3b. Unless there are some AAA or lower on the pecking order for some of these teams that the Twins think will have impact, I doubt any contending team will give up a pen arm. Every team is always looking to upgrade their pen.

I was big on Arcia. In part it goes back to when he was in AA I went to a game he was playing and the ball just sounded different off his bat. He came on the scene and looked like he could be a hitter for years. He just never adjusted to how MLB pitchers would pitch to him. His attitude reflected that as well when he would make comments about he was there to hit HR. I was really big on Stephen Gonsalves. His early low minor numbers were great, but he just never fully developed.

Snell is an interesting piece as his numbers have not been good since leaving Rays, but if his stuff is still the same it makes you wonder what is leading to it? Is SD just that much worse on defense? I mean the park is a pitcher park if I recall correctly. I trust the FO if they think they can bring him back to his TB numbers, but he has not been great in SD. He would very much be buy low guy, and could get really cheap if you want to take on all the money.

I would love to see them trade for Willson Contreras but my guess they will not. I do not know what he would cost as a rental, but many teams will be bidding. Very few contending teams would not be willing to upgrade offense at catcher. Even though the Twins offense is not their biggest issue, if you can make it even better at catcher I would look at it.

Rodgers is like any "closer" which he was not for us really, but they will get the job done a decent amount of the time, but will blow some here and there. His recent run of games is not good, but the team only has lost 5 games he has pitched in, 4 of which he picked up the loss, and won 31 he pitched in, where he got 24 saves. He has blow 5 saves. He is a good relief arm but some act like he was untouchable and with him we would have won like 10 more games or something, which is just not the case. For all we know all the blown saves we have had he would have, or he would have blown some others did not. He is overvalued by many in my opinion. Lets see how he does in the playoffs for SD, where his career numbers are 3.1 innings pitched across 4 games, one outing he got no outs, given up 2 runs. Maybe he closes out games and pushes SD to second round, or maybe he blows a save and SD curses him.

My guess Winder stays starting either here or in AAA. I doubt they move him to relief roll.

If tipping his pitches is accurate that is something players will pick up on and make you pay. Unless you are super elite with your pitches if a hitter knows it is coming they will normally hit it.