Deduno Abides

You may not want to expose them, but I’d sleep fine at night. More seriously, there are 5 players on the DL, in addition to the players on the 40-man. Assuming everyone on the DL is healthy in the spring, that gives 45 players (Perkins is already gone, and Santiago is sure to follow, which would leave 43.If the team let’s go of all 11 players in your list (9 if Santiago and Perkins aren’t counted), 34 players will be on the 40-man. If May, Chargois and Hughes remain injured, it will be 31. Several minor leaguers need to be protected or they could be lost, including Gonsalves, Littell, Stewart, Thorpe, Rodriguez, Reed, Diaz, Bard, Burdi and Melotakis (10 players). It wouldn’t surprise me if seven or eight of them are protected. The team also wants to get free agents and possibly Rule V picks. If none of Enns, Jorge, Rosario and Palka are removed, more of the other players will be at risk of loss and fewer free agents can be signed. Therefore, I think there’s a good chance several of them are removed at some point this winter. Another likely candidate is Niko Goodrum.

Good information. Giants waited until Lincecum was in age 26 season, after two amazing years and one pretty good year. It was a lot more expensive, but they signed a 2-year deal and he pitched well, so it was a good deal. Then they signed an even more expensive 2-year deal, and he pitched OK, so it was almost a wash. Then they signed a slightly less expensive 2-year deal, and he pitched poorly. Going every two years, and waiting for Lincecum to prove himself, they spent almost $100M, which is a lot more than Seth proposed for a long-term deal for Berrios. Also, Lincecum was always considered more risky, with his size and unorthodox style. Kazmir signed a three year deal for $28.5 before age 25, after being great at 21-23 and somewhat disappointing at 24. He was Ok at 25 and the wheels fell off at 26 and 27. He’s been somewhat of a mystery and I’ll admit to never quite understanding how and why pitchers succeed or fail for the Rays. It seems that he pitched through a bunch of minor injuries until he had bigger injuries and wasn’t any good anymore. He obviously was still a good pitcher, because he had a good comeback after resting. Better choices and communication earlier might have saved several years of his career. Brandon McCarthy got his fame by being included in a trade for John Danks. He had had a good minors career, but his age 23 stats were terrible, despite the numbers you cite. 101.2 IP, 5.22 K/9, 4.25 BB/9. His first year with more than 1.1 fWAR and less than 4 ERA, FIP or xFIP was at age 28, when he put it together for the Athletics. Villanueva was 0.4 fWAR long reliever at age 23. Signing a young pitcher is a bet. Hopefully, more is known and done now to prevent injuries, beyond counting pitches.

Sorry. Nobody is going to tolerate four years of Carlos Gomez while waiting for Lewis to become a 5 WAR player, if it even happens, and you’re definitely not going to win anything if Gomez is your centerfielder. Didn’t the Twins already establish what they can get for Dozier and Santana, and in Dozier’s case it was a possible front line AAA pitcher, by himself, and Santana didn’t get anything worth pursuing? Throwing Santana into a Dozier trade would not change the return from Jose de Leon into Noah Syndergaard, and would simultaneously weaken two positions. Probably my last comment. You can have the last word.

Spring training 2013

The last two years are the only ones both are in the majors. Sano’s best offensive season was his rookie year, a partial season. I hope you’re right about Sano’s future and that it happens with the Twins. However, because of the projection, he’s the most realistic trade piece right now to get a front line pitcher.

I’ll see your stat and raise you one: in each of the last two years, Rendon had a higher wRC+ and wOBA. Regardless of their relative offense, Washington would probably not trade Rendon straight up for Sano, much less in a package with Strasburg.

When Jose Reyes thinks your conduct is unacceptable, you’ve lost your own clubhouse.

Matt Harvey’s velocity and quality have trended down significantly since he was good in 2013. He’s had a lot of injuries and issues in the clubhouse and off the field. Expecting him to again be an ace is like expecting Tiger Woods to win another Masters.

Yeesh, I don’t think anyone is going to trade an MVP candidate (gold glove candidate and better hitter than Sano) and an ace for Sano’s perceived blue sky. Sano is a fine player, but he hasn’t even been able to stay healthy for a whole year or distinguish himself in the field, and has already had TJ. You wouldn’t even take Severino for Sano? Also, I like your long-term thinking, but most people on TD, myself included, would probably be satisfied with maximizing the next five years and worry less about the years after that.

If you want to get a front line starter in a trade, you have to offer something valuable in return, not one 2 WAR outfielder or a top 100 minor leaguer and a pupu platter of C+ prospects.

You wanted high end controllable pitching. deGrom has been more valuable each year of Sano’s career. Who would you want for Sano?

What about trading Sano for de Grom? Who hangs up?

Last year, Hughes, Santiago and Colon accounted for 200 IPs. Each was slow (as opposed to Gibson, for example, who averaged 92.7 with his fastball). Various others, such as Tepesch and Wilkening, threw a handful of slow FB innings each. Hopefully 2018 is the first year no scrap heap veterans pitch.

Dallas Kuechel and Cliff Lee are good examples. Not flame throwers, but they can (could) put the fastball exactly where they want it. Cleveland’s entire staff does it. If Mike meant that Houston’s bullpen has struggled with command, I’d agree, but they’re probably the weakest bullpen of the LCS teams. As far as not having one philosophy, that means he works with whatever the pitchers have, and will be less likely to prescribe specific ways to pitch or pitches to throw. He recognizes that what works for one pitcher may not work for another.

Hopefully, in connection with command, there is the ability to coordinate well with catchers to come up with strategies to attack every hitter’s weakness. If you watch Cleveland pitchers, these are two things they do well - on mlb.com, pitches are over the plate and in the blue zone.

Six minor leaguers are on the 40-man that I saw (which actually had 41 non-DL names): Enns, Jorge, Palka, Recker, Romero and Rosario. All but Romero could be dropped, if better choices exist.

For the price of one of these guys, you could probably get two or three of relievers like Oh, Reed, Nicasio, Morrow and Swarzak, for example, and for fewer years. You still probably want one external addition to the rotation, but hopefully the new pitching coach and scouts have some good ideas about less well-known - and therefore less expensive - candidates, which would allow the Twins to make a big acquisition at the trade deadline and not take an expensive risk on the health and performance of just adequate, at best. veteran pitchers.

Outstanding: “Not one philosophy” and “commanding the zone.”

Does this mean Dozier now can be traded straight up for Luis Severino?

For years, Strat-o-Matic considered the 1927 Pirates and the 1953 Dodgers to be among the greatest teams of all time, despite not winning the World Series. For years, people around here have celebrated the 1965 Twins. Of course, it’s best to win, but there’s merit and accomplishment in being a great team, even if it was ultimately unsuccessful.

Fitness and training play a large role in preventing and recovering from these injuries. The best chiropractors and physical therapists spend much of their days dealing with labral and tendon issues and muscle weaknesses that can lead to them. That is exactly what training is about. It is not about getting big guns.

As I said initially, he keeps himself in great shape, which I believe will help prevent injury and, if he gets injured, will help him recover and resume being a valuable pitcher. At this point, I will add that I expect Falvey and Levine are changing the team’s medical and physical therapy practices, to hopefully improve health outcomes.

“Wait for the opportune moment.” -Captain Jack Sparrow

As I said in an earlier post, Berrios appears more likely than the average pitcher to stay healthy or recover from injury, which is why I support the numbers Seth posted. Your opinion seems to be to never sign a long-term contract with a pitcher when they are several years from free agency. I’m sure that many people agree with you, and I won’t say you’re “wrong,” but teams do accept the gamble and sign these contracts with pitchers, although usually not this early. The advantage of doing it now is to get a better price. If the Twins could sign Berrios with Seth’s numbers, that would be a good deal.

You are looking at the downside of being stuck with a contract on an injured pitcher. I am looking at the downside of not being able to afford an successful pitcher. With Berrios, I am more concerned about not being able to afford him if he’s successful and would be willing to accept the risk of having to pay him if he gets hurt. If you think there’s more risk from his getting injured than from not being able to afford him, that’s a valid position.