Strong optimism for 2015 with the present roster and minor leaguers requires the following: (1) Phil Hughes not to develop an elbow or shoulder issue or otherwise repeat his historical pattern of one good year followed by one or two bad years; (2) Joe Mauer to return to the physical skills of ages 24-28 during his 32nd year of living, and not to require extended time on the DL or fatuous excuses from management, and to recover his batting eye or bat speed or whatever it was that caused his BB/K ratio this year to be his career worst by a long shot; (3) Byron Buxton at age 22 to perform like Andrew McCutcheon when he was 25, even though McCutcheon had a .770 OPS in AAA when he was 21, whereas Buxton had a lost year in A/AA at the same age, and McCutcheon did not fully approach dominance until his fourth year in the majors; (4) Miguel Sano to perform at age 22 like Miguel Cabrera performed at age 22, even though Cabrera at 21 was a major league all-star, an age at which Sano did not play, and Cabrera received major league MVP votes at age 20, an age at which Sano played A/AA; (5) Alex Meyer to be healthy and effective (and given a meaningful chance and not criticized publicly by his coaches or their media mouthpieces every time he doesn't look like Roy Halladay in his prime); (6) Ricky Nolasco to be, not just better, but significantly better than he was this year, even though the only year in his career he was more than a 1.8 WAR pitcher was 2008, when he was 25; (7) Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas not to significantly regress and Oswaldo Arcia to significantly improve; (8) Kurt Suzuki to confirm that he has reached a new level of performance and not to regress into the Suzuki of 2010-2013; (9) Trevor May to significantly improve (this may be the most likely item on this list); (10) Tommy Milone and/or Mike Pelfrey to be serviceable major league pitchers; (11) The team to rebuild its bullpen and hope that Glen Perkins stays strong and Casey Fien of 2015 doesn't turn into Jared Burton of 2014; and (12) One or two minor leaguers with question marks - Pinto? Hicks? Rosario? - to figure out what's holding them back and make an impact. If you're comfortable that the negative items in this list are unlikely and the positive items are likely, then you should be comfortable not making significant moves this winter. If, on the other hand, you are pessimistic about several items on this list, the Twins should either go after Max Scherzer and/or James Shields and a couple of bats, or push even harder to rebuild the minor league system by trading for top prospects like the Cubs did in getting Addison Russell and others. My guess is that some of these items will be positive, while several will be negative. Sure, the team looks more hopeful this year, with the emergence of some young players and the pitching of Phil Hughes, but the team is once again collectively a 90+ loss team. If all else holds even or improves (e.g., Dozier, Cabrera, Gibson, left field) and these items are on balance mildly positive, the team likely would still be sub .500. To truly compete for the post-season without major changes in the roster, these items must on balance be mostly positive and the Doziers, Gibsons and Cabreras must be much better.