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Doomtints

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Everything posted by Doomtints

  1. Doomtints
    I'm unsure what you're responding to. I support trading Dozier. Dozier's power surge last year is proof that power in a vacuum is pointless.
  2. Doomtints
    No, I'm simply responding to a long-winded post that was trying to use logic to defend a point that wasn't logical. This is sports, not chemistry. So the person he was responding to wasn't logical, big deal. The response wasn't logical either. Let people have their opinions. It's not like "compete in 3 years" hasn't been said by hundreds of different people over the past few years.
  3. Doomtints
    Depends on what you mean by "compete." The Twins can be very disruptive to their division even if they aren't a team that can make the playoffs. I would call that competing. The bulk of the Twins schedule is against the division, so starting small and learning how to win games in the Central division would be a huge first step. In the 00s the Twins dominated the division (and interleague, thanks in part to the dome) but often struggled against the East and West. If the Twins can put up respectable divisional records, they'll be "competing" very well even if they're not making the playoffs for another couple of years. This also means that the recipe for success (or, at least, playoff berths) isn't as far away as we might think. (Next year, no. But so what?) Cleveland still looks like a team on the rise, and the Royals are fighters. But the other two teams have flaws that could be exploited with the right lineup. Finishing in the middle of the division instead of at the bottom would be monstrously successful and I would call that competing.
  4. Doomtints
    A pennant in any year is technically possible. You're going down the rabbit hole here.
  5. Doomtints
    Should be easy to figure out. Pitch framing grades the umpire as much as it does the catcher. How do the Yankees catchers rank for pitch framing? And did Murphy see a huge drop when he moved to the Twins?
  6. Doomtints
    This depends on your opinion of Polanco. Polanco is ready and Dozier has just peaked. Trade opportunities rarely come as gift wrapped as this one, again, unless you think Polanco is a failure. If you think that it's certainly not based on any available evidence. Polanco may not have the same fiery bat that Dozier has, but he on the bottom line Polanco looks to me like he will be an upgrade.
  7. Doomtints
    It makes all the sense in the world for them to get to know their players. It doesn't matter how busy they are. This is like the director of a film never talking to the actors. If they need to be "working 24/7 on how to improve the team" -- a huge part of improving the team would involve actually talking to their talent. Sure, you don't want to make promises to a guy if you intend to trade him. And you don't want to communicate an intent to trade in case the trade does not go through. Nevertheless, they should have had a conversation with the guy.
  8. Doomtints
    You should look at split stats more often. In any case, we are talking about 1 pitch per game. If you are choosing to go to war over that, go for it I guess. I'm willing to concede that 1 batter per game could conceivably fall behind in a count due to Castro's wizardry. Now what?
  9. Doomtints
    Depends on the hitter.
  10. Doomtints
    Fair enough. But remember that both catchers were behind the plate for a pitcher named Samuel Deduno.
  11. Doomtints
    30+ runs? His pitch framing metrics are worth 0.92 called strikes per game. That's never 30 runs. That *might* be 30 walks, but probably not even that many. His base stealing defense is easily negated by his terrible pitch blocking skills. Those cost bases too, you know. The Twins traded one set of defensive liabilities for another. We're fixing to find out which liabilities are worse for a young pitching staff. But definitely be careful when calling this guy a huge improvement over Suzuki.
  12. Doomtints
    I think this is purely about pitch framing. Castro's catching defense is not impressive, with 12 passed balls and 50 wild pitches last year alone. For comparison, Suzuki had 12 passed balls *in the past four years* while catching guys like May, Berrios, and even Deduno, and never more than 36 WPs against him in any year while in a Twins uniform. When it comes to the CS%, people ran on Suzuki a lot more than Castro in 2016, and the 5% difference between the two of them could be statistically attributed to that. Just a couple more stolen bases and that 5% can vanish (or it can get better.) Who has the edge in categories that are important for catchers? - Catching defense - Suzuki - Base stealing defense - Castro - Hitting - Suzuki - Pitch Framing - Castro - Age - Castro (though Suzuki has proven to be able to catch after age 29 and Castro is just now getting there) Castro is the less risky bet for the future, but the difference isn't going to be what some of us think it will. The key differences boil down to this: Castro can make the pitchers who can find the strike zone look better. Suzuki can stop the pitchers who can't find the strike zone from costing the team games.
  13. Doomtints
    I think the Twins got duped with JRM. The Yankees already traded off a catcher this year too, one who looks better than JRM ever did. Sure, give JRM a shot in spring training. But if he still can't block pitches, throw out runners, or hit the ball, let's hope they don't hesitate to make Garver the backup and leave JRM at AAA.
  14. Doomtints
    Since the Braves were also chasing Castro, why not trade for the Braves catcher who was BETTER at pitch framing than Castro was and let them land Castro? This would have saved money and the Braves are no doubt prospect hunting. Suzuki was signed many years ago and was still one of the highest paid catchers in the league -- more than Ramos. So is it *really* true that the Twins are paying market value, or is this just what we want to believe? Seeing as we are looking at a 1.1 WAR player who will get an 1 extra called strike per game, why not supplant him with trades for the #7 best paid player at each position? This seems to be the bar. Would any of these guys have a bigger impact than Castro? Freddie Freeman 6.5 WAR Daniel Murphy 4.6 WAR Martin Prado 3.8 WAR Andrelton Simmons 4.2 WAR Jon Lester 5.3 WAR Lorenzo Cain 2.9 WAR Don't get the wrong idea here. I think the Castro signing is a good move and it's pushing things the right direction. But we need to temper our enthusiasm a bit. I don't want to hear people complaining for the next three years about how he can't hit and can't block pitches. (May and Berrios are both wild, remember). And yeah, the Twins paid a premium price for him ... that needs to be called out. I'm all for the Twins spending more, let's hope they're consistent about it and not throwing money into a hole by making this the one position where they open up the wallet.
  15. Doomtints
    For good reason. Castro's superior pitch framing means that he gets 0.92 strikes called per game that should be balls. That's such dominance it just makes one tremble inside. A world series is inevitable.
  16. Doomtints
    This will make him the #7 most highly paid catcher in the league. Is he at that level? His WAR ranks 23rd at the position. This is a 0.5 improvement over Suzuki. Of course, WAR does not measure pitch framing which appears to be the justification for this move. He is ranked #5 for pitch framing, right below the Braves catcher. How well did the Braves do last year?
  17. Doomtints
    Plouffe could easily be worth $8M if he stays healthy. Fangraphs has his mediocre 2015 pegged at being worth $19.5M. Plouffe going back to his 2015 form is not out of the question as that is not exactly a high bar. As fans we need to realize that this move has nothing at all to do with Plouffe and everything to do with Sano. This doesn't mean it was the wrong move, mind you. Whichever team lands Plouffe will get a good deal unless he gets injured.
  18. Doomtints
    I like Plouffe but they should have moved him around 20 GIDP ago. It's his fatal flaw. He will get picked up and will be paid well enough.
  19. Doomtints
    I like the comparison to flipping houses and I admit I had never made this type of connection before. Pick up a player, clean him up and make him look nice, then send him packing at a premium before he turns back into a pumpkin. The ultimate flip of course would be the Broncos and Tim Tebow. It's hard to think of this being as easy to do in baseball as it is for a quarterback in the NFL, where you can mold the rest of the team to play towards the quarterback's strengths and hide his weaknesses. If this strategy could be pulled off in baseball the team pulling it off would deserve a section in the hall of fame.
  20. Doomtints
    I think the Twins have players with more potential than Dozier, though sure right now he is one of the best if not the best player on the team. But at the same time, Dozier is not an elite player. If the best player on the team has a career OPS+ of 108, you're in trouble. You won't lose much by letting him go. If the market is ripe to dump off a 108 OPS+ guy who is overrated defensively and come out ahead, I don't think any GM would hesitate to trade him. Dozier is a great player for a team looking to plug that last hole, but on his own he's not going to lead a team to the playoffs.
  21. Doomtints
    Good to go young with the position players, but I would look for a geriatric looking for one final year like what the Twins did with Hunter. The start of 2016 was disastrous for the hitting and I think a part of that was they were missing the old timer who could tell them to stop worrying about being perfect. As you are going even younger than the Twins were in 2015 and 2016, I would supplement with a veteran. As far as pitching, it's almost like there are no wrong answers at this point. I have yet to see anyone with the magic bullet as unfortunately there isn't one. This is why my feeling is to just blow it all up. Cut/trade half of what we have, and the other half have a 1-year trial period. Finish the job next offseason.
  22. Doomtints
    SABR's methodology is terrible, however. Laughingstock-level terrible. SABR adds every advanced defensive stat together to make an index. Sounds OK, right? Lots of systems use indexes (like every major stock index). But what happens when more than one defensive stat measures a particular event? That event gets magnified when you add them all together. Events that are not counted by multiple defensive systems then get silenced. When an indexing system works, things only get counted once. Each defensive system starts by counting the same things, it's only by the margins where things are different. The margins are important as can be illustrated by the fact that each system produces different results. By adding each system together, you essentially end up with a metric that exaggerates some tendencies to grotesque extremes while the uniqueness of every system is tossed out the window. Remember 2015 when Dozier was considered by the media (with a straight face) to be a Gold Glove candidate, and SABR had his score near dead last in the league for defense? I know Dozier's defense has been overrated, but he's not the worst player in the league.
  23. Doomtints
    The Silver Slugger and Gold Glove are popularity contests. I'm sure Dozier isn't losing any sleep right now. How many Twins have "won" the award?
  24. Doomtints
    Yeah, that was the narrative. Dozier had a promising half-season and "regression" was predicted. I never saw anything that suggested that he would not continue playing well and got a bit blue in the face about it. To the skeptics credit, however, it only took a few months into the next season before they too saw that Dozier wasn't going to fall off a cliff. As you say, Dozier has probably peaked. And the Twins have a nice prospect ready to take his place. This is the perfect storm for a trade that every GM dreams about.
  25. Doomtints
    Moves on the margins are fine for a team that is performing at the mean or better. Using this approach when the team is at the bottom is what got Ryan fired. I disagree with the small moves for positional players, but I can respect being cautious as some of them have potential. The pitching needs to be blown up, however. Half goes now, the other half gets a year to prove themselves. Harsh but it needs to be done. The Twins have a lot of work to do. Kudos for putting Sano at DH, though. The Twins will look very smart if they sew up DH for the next decade. They'll look incredibly dumb if the derail his career by forcing him to play the field and dealing with fluke injuries and carnival defense.
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