Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Doomtints

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,679

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Tutorials & Help

Videos

2023 Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Free Agent & Trade Rumors

Guides & Resources

Minnesota Twins Players Project

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Doomtints

  1. Doomtints
    But not by double digits.
  2. Doomtints
    That lead exists because of 1 year -- last year --- when he hit 20 more home runs than usual.
  3. Doomtints
    "But I don't understand why so many people think acquiring a couple pitching prospect is the answer. The Twins have plenty of pitching prospects." Not all pitching prospects are created equal.
  4. Doomtints
    Why? Klingenbeck's minor league numbers are nowhere near the assets that have been discussed.
  5. Doomtints
    The Orioles did a nice job of dumping a dud onto Terry Ryan. Luckily that has not happened at any other time and Ryan's HOF display is a shoo-in.
  6. Doomtints
    If there is a huge difference between both sides, then no deal was ever close. This means we have been talking about a non-issue. The reports state that the Twins and Dodgers have discussed things. That's it. They are not close to a deal. Therefore, we have been wasting our time on this.
  7. Doomtints
    What's holding up the trade? Who knows. For all we know there isn't a serious Dozier trade on the table. Dodgers-Twins may have never progressed to any stage worth discussing, in spite of us going crazy about it.
  8. Doomtints
    Read up. Bill James proved it with numbers. Like I said, the perception is different because people judge minors talent on what pundits state rather than their actual metrics. Bill James can't measure the rubbish from the mouths of pundits.
  9. Doomtints
    Bill James wrote that if someone is an elite talent in the minors, he almost always works out in the MLB. The Kevin Sloweys who dominate the minors but have short MLB careers are rare. And even Slowey put together 3 good years before the Twins tried to change him, all in spite of him having a fastball that your grandma could hit. De Leon is dominating the minors. I'm wondering if some of you arguing against him being enough have actually looked at his stats. Anyway, the point is, prospects are not gambles. Analytics has proven that top talent in the minors reliably becomes top talent in the majors. The problem is that we often think of "top talent" based on scouting articles, not metrics, so we argue needlessly about what "top talent" actually is.
  10. Doomtints
    I would think that if there is any position o the field where the field manager gets to make the call on which players are on the roster, it would be the bullpen. I would wager this is still on Molitor if the talent isn't there.
  11. Doomtints
    It's about time.
  12. Doomtints
    Regarding Gibson, pitchf/x is showing almost no change between last year and his prior years. He was hitting the same locations as always and with the same velocity. I think we can safely chalk up Gibson's 2016 as being a dud year due to injuries, a bit of bad luck, and a terrible defense being behind him. Having said all that, Gibson is still just a #4 or #5 guy. I think he will be better in 2017 (if healthy and with better defensive play) but he's not likely to become the next Cy Young award winner regardless. He is probably the best #4/#5 option the team has, but that's not saying much. How much of Gibson's ERA is due to a reliever letting the inherited baserunners score?
  13. Doomtints
    For those who are wondering, this is on Molitor. At one point he was quoted as not wanting to pull pitchers until they finish an inning. It makes more sense to pull when the pitcher appears to be out of gas. What invariably happens is the pitcher lets some runs go by and he ends up having to pull him before the inning is over anyway. I think good managers need to have a strong pitching background, not only to know when to pull a pitcher but to know how to fill out the lineup card. I don't think Molitor has a keen eye when it comes to pitching. But ... per the boss Molitor is popular with fans so he gets another year......
  14. Doomtints
    Fair grades. This bullpen simply did not have the depth to deal with such a terrible starting staff. This is NOT a championship caliber bullpen, though, and like everything else on the team it needs to be improved.
  15. Doomtints
    Yep. WAR is a great shorthand stat. But you always gotta dig in more to get the full story. It's like saying, "I made $50,000 last year." That's nice. but maybe you dig in more and find that you made $100/hr selling widgets and $8/hr shining shoes. Before you can make a smart decision about where you should be spending more time next year, you have to look at more than just the $50,000 number at the top. WAR is one of these top level numbers that is a helpful starting point but all of the underlying data is hidden. There is no doubt that some players, particularly elite starting pitchers, can provide more value than their WAR numbers indicate. If you never bother to look at the underlying stats, you will never know what's truly going on.
  16. Doomtints
    You clearly think the Twins should care about what people think. You brought it up as being an important way to value a player. No one else went there. You changed the subject to social popularity because you had no argument against player valuation with accepted metrics, now you're changing it back? Are you just trying to make people run around in circles?
  17. Doomtints
    Oh my god noooooo. People in positions of power don't consider such things. They go with what they believe in, not what is popular. (Also, I disagree that they would be "universally criticized" -- but I guarantee you that this isn't anything they are worried about).
  18. Doomtints
    So? Four out of the five slated starters on the Twins could have a negative WAR next year. If you replace a -1 pitcher with a +3 pitcher, you just improved by 4 WAR -- roughly what one should expect from Dozier in any future year. And this calculation doesn't even add in the fact that Polanco is probably good for 3 WAR as well.
  19. Doomtints
    That's right. Until he plays long seasons at A and above, we won't know if he can keep fireballing as a starter over the course of a full season. It's very likely that he can't and ends up in the bullpen unless he proves to be effective with less velocity on his fastball.
  20. Doomtints
    No one said the two are equal risks. No two players ever are. Nonetheless, this is still "how this works." How you answer the question I offered to you is exactly how you determine if the trade makes sense. (Though maybe you don't use WAR, likely a front office uses other measurements that are more particulate). To you, it seems the trade does not make sense. That's fine. You can say that instead of saying, "that's not how this works" while then giving an example that supports my point. If you think De Leon might give 0 WAR and Dozier definitely will not, you just answered my question.
  21. Doomtints
    If you think Dozier is going to hit 40 home runs a year, sure. But what if he goes back to hitting 25? Which player has more WAR ahead of them in their careers? Dozier or De Leon? What about the WAR for rest of their contracts?
  22. Doomtints
    Dozier's bat is extraneous. If Sano plays to his potential, Buxton turns the corner, and Vargas/Park figue things out, you already passed Dozier's production. Polanco just needs to keep doing what he is doing. It's the other guys who need to step up to fill Dozier's shoes.
  23. Doomtints
    Don't let his spot in the draft fool you. De Leon is universally considered the Dodger's #1 pitching prospect, and he is on a team that has a lot of good pitching prospects. Don't forget that Dozier was drafted at #252 and averaged 4 home runs a year in the minors. De Leon is another guy who continues to get better as time goes on.
  24. Doomtints
    Probably neither really. I think he was given info that was believed to be true by whoever told him. But his source does not appear to be a primary source because there was no completed deal that was 48 hours away from execution. None of this matters ultimately. Rumors are rumors, we all know that. This doesn't reflect negatively on anybody. This website has gone crazy and talked about little else, but there is nothing wrong with that either, even if some of us are a bit tired of talking about it. The owners of the website probably appreciate the traffic.
  25. Doomtints
    Fixed.
×
×
  • Create New...