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Doomtints

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Everything posted by Doomtints

  1. Doomtints
    One can't trust either of those systems with the Twins, who have been unusual in the way they have lost games in blowouts, causing a run differential that does not match their W-L record. Neither system has the capacity to understand or predict what a team like the Twins will do. The number of blowout losses suffered by the Twins is unusual and the logical conclusion is that they will fall in number in the second half. This means the team should improve, not get worse. Note that both system are correct -- as in within ~5 games of a team's actual W-L record -- only around 1/3 of the time, particularly as the season is still going on. And when these systems are off, they can be WAY OFF. If anything is outside of the standard deviation -- an extreme W-L record or an extreme run differential -- the systems collapse. But we don't need either system. The sniff test can tell us this: - Heck no, this is not a .430 team. Almost none of us predicted 69 wins for this team to start the season, and the team has never shown us this on the field! - The team has a small chance of making the playoffs, but likely best case is them falling a bit short. Realistic case is they land around .500. If they sell, then we're back in the 70-80 wins range.
  2. Doomtints
    The Twins aren't going to face any bad team in the playoffs, probably. But yes, simply reaching the playoffs would do wonders for next year's ticket sales considering recent Twins history.
  3. Doomtints
    Personally, I would have waited until the conclusion of the LA series before making moves. Because, in reality, nothing has changed between this week and last week with this team. If the Twins surprised people and took some games from the Dodgers, then as management you have to take them seriously. But if they kept on as before, losing to the tough teams, then the strategy is different. The front office made moves before gauging the team, they simply looked at the standings. Moving Santana makes some sense provided the return is right. Garcia, same. However, the elephant in the room, as always, is Dozier. I think you have to try to keep Kintzler if possible.
  4. Doomtints
    Love the trade.
  5. Doomtints
    Exactly. Why the heck is he batting second? Every time it seems like Molitor is figuring things out a bit, he does some nonsense like this!
  6. Doomtints
    Let's be brutally honest here. The only plausible reason that the Twins are marching Colon out there is to sell tickets, and this gimmick can only work more than a week or two if he can win games and it does not look like winning games is going to happen. If the Twins are smart, this "experiment" is over by the end of the month.
  7. Doomtints
    Sure. He was sent to the minors last year because of this. Don't forget that someone named Carlos Gomez was ridiculed by Twins fans for his terrible choices when baserunning and on defense, particularly throwing to the infield. Gomez figured it out. Don't give up on these young guys for fringey reasons that no baseball stat even measures. If something matters, you can bet someone made a convoluted stat for it by now.
  8. Doomtints
    Thanks for your guess.
  9. Doomtints
    Then why didn't they pick up any other 8.00 ERA pitchers?
  10. Doomtints
    Statistical evidence suggests no.
  11. Doomtints
    Gee will be called up. He is stretched out now with a 0.00 ERA, and he can opt out of the contract tomorrow if he wants. Someone else would pick him up, so he only stays in the minors for the Twins longer with a very shiny promise from the Twins. With the Twins pitching situation being what it is, the Twins would be fools to play it that way and keep him down any longer. Colon will also be with the team, though probably not quite so quickly. Those are the two internal options who have a realistic chance of making a difference. The difference Colon would make at this point might be more as a mentor -- and I don't want to diminish that value as his presence can only help the team.
  12. Doomtints
    This team deserves its props for being where they are and with the pitching situation as it is. Most team would have thrown in the towel with the pitching. The front office is on the record as wanting to build for the future and not for this year. That's the right decision, there is too much left to build to start gutting the prospect pool. But I will say it again, it's a head scratcher that the team did not address this at all during the offseason. Building a team is a constant process and the Twins are still lacking 3/4 of a pitching staff....
  13. Doomtints
    Who would trade more than that for Gordon? Gordon won't be a contributor until 2018 or 2019.
  14. Doomtints
    Should someone who keeps getting better and better be traded, a rising star in the middle infield (the two positions of constant need for every organization)? Nah. In the modern era, pitchers are injury magnets. Don't trade a rising star for a pitcher. Trade an older player or a player whose salary you don't like instead. Looking at you, Dozier. There isn't a pitcher of worthy enough caliber to trade someone like Gordon off that the Twins would not be able to pick up in free agency. If the Twins want pitching prospects, they can trade away different pieces....
  15. Doomtints
    Amazing that Buxton provides so much value just as a defender.
  16. Doomtints
    I agree. Would yesterday's loss had been as bad if Buxton had been out there? Could the Twins have won? I'm perplexed as to why Molitor would have anyone other than Buxton out there behind the Twins #3-#5 starters! This isn't the first time.
  17. Doomtints
    The Braves brass were crystal clear when they said publicly that they did not think Colon would work in the bullpen and that was never an option. The Braves had to cut a pitcher. They felt they have 5 starters better than Colon and they have a very good bullpen. Not sure what "private" thing you read, but I would be skeptical because what you are suggesting was the discussion makes no sense. This would be like the Twins moving Buxton to catcher.
  18. Doomtints
    That's not the story I read at all.
  19. Doomtints
    Colon is probably a waste of time as a pitcher, but the Braves could not say enough good things about his ability to mentor.
  20. Doomtints
    Even after coming back down to earth, Duffey's numbers as a reliever are still better than his numbers as a starter. One should also consider that at the end of the day, he is still only credited with two losses, his ERA+ and WAA show him as average, and his FIP looks rather shiny. He is also the most used -- and thus most trusted-- reliever on the team. Not sure why we'd blow that up to make him a starter with the the plan to trade him away.
  21. Doomtints
    Everyone who looks at stat sheets are aware of his power. Statcast in particular loves Sano. Even with hitting 42 home runs last year, Dozier is still very much in the Twins sphere only, fans in other markets don't think about him. The same cannot be said of Sano. He may not be a superstar (yet), but people know who he is and know he is in the league to hit dingers.
  22. Doomtints
    This is just my perception of the Twins hitting behavior in particular. It could be wrong, and it almost certainly does not apply to the MLB as a whole.
  23. Doomtints
    I'm not convinced that the problems are mechanical flaws over simply being green. There are really no true red flags around Buxton. He is already providing value to the team, even with his weak bat. Tell me, what would the Twins W-L record be right now without Buxton?
  24. Doomtints
    Always skeptical of wins where all of the scoring is in one inning. This is usually a sign that the bats are about to go silent for a couple of games. But a win is a win!
  25. Doomtints
    I don't know if I would call him a sleeper. People know who he is. No smart person would bet against him.
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