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Doomtints

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Everything posted by Doomtints

  1. Doomtints
    I was expecting the Tigers to play the Twins hard, that's how they have played the Twins all year. For whatever reason, the Tigers players do not want to lose to the Twins and this year have been putting in extra effort when they play each other. The Twins were a little flat-footed and complacent in the lost game, but shut things down in the series finale (as best they could).
  2. Doomtints
    This looks streaky to you?
  3. Doomtints
    The players who were lagging behind are now hot. Likely when they cool off, the usual gang will be out of their slumps. This is how a good team works. Exciting to see happening, finally.
  4. Doomtints
    Cooler heads are prevailing in this thread. I like it. I'm was incredibly irked by this performance and I still am, but everyone's temperance here has rubbed off on me.
  5. Doomtints
    Dozier went on a tear last year while the Twins were losing games badly. I don't expect his dingers to manufacture wins as long as he is in the leadoff spot, plus expecting the same performance this year is probably not reasonable at this point.
  6. Doomtints
    Kaat was in the majors for a long time, but even his arm wore down. Moving to the pen is what kept him on the field at the end of career, which goes against his statement.
  7. Doomtints
    I see no reason to get any more excited than we probably were 1 week ago, 2 weeks ago, etc. We knew the team was in a funk, but not a collapse. We also knew that neither KC nor Cle were truly running away with it. There are a lot of games left to be played. Hopefully no one truly lost hope based on a small stretch of unexciting games.
  8. Doomtints
    I was not expecting the Twins to sweep the Brewers. It seems the middling teams who surged around the all star break are coming back down to earth. The Indians, Royals, Cubs, etc., are all looking like .500 teams again.
  9. Doomtints
    Again, no one is advocating for infinite chances.
  10. Doomtints
    I don't think anyone is advocating for "infinite chances." If the Twins are going to be thinking about "backup plans" for Polanco already, they're daft. He deserves another full year, minimum. I think we are seeing confirmation bias going on. Some people disliked Polanco before this season and are thus going into "I told you so" mode, rather than letting the kid learn the ropes of major league baseball. These are the same conversations we had about Brian Dozier a few years ago.
  11. Doomtints
    I agree with the sentiments expressed here. There is nothing inherently wrong with Polanco. His slump is absolutely normal for a young player. The data we have access to measures results, but not the approach. Coaches work on the approach. All the best data in the world won't help someone coach the kid properly as to what to do. Until we start looking at film we have no chance of knowing more than the Twins coaches when it comes to coaching a player.
  12. Doomtints
    Can Santana win 20 games this year? And if he does, will we still insult with him "Oh, he's just a #3" threads?
  13. Doomtints
    Buxton's WAA is 1.1. He is an above average MLB position player at age 23. He also has the top WAR of any position player on the team. Disappointing is not a word to describe Buxton. Developing is a better fit. He will eventually pull his own with his bat, and when he does he will be the most important player on the team.
  14. Doomtints
    Good analysis, and deservedly biting when it comes to the handling of Vargas. There is zero reason to panic based on these numbers and write-up. Sure, adding an all-star bat or two would help, but that's always true. The only thing I would say is that the Twins hitting is OK, but the run scoring isn't good enough. Panicking over the latter would break the former, however. The core of this team is still very young. The runs will come.
  15. Doomtints
    Yes. There's nothing for it but to light half of the position players on fire and ignore the pitching for another year.
  16. Doomtints
    Seems the familiar end-of-season blues is hitting the Twins again. We can hope they snap out of it and don't completely throw in the towel as the season winds down. Both teams ahead of them are on losing streaks. If the players are upset, there is time and space enough to prove their masters were wrong. The division is by no means decided. At the very least, the players can make things interesting.
  17. Doomtints
    The Twins will have 4 players leaving via free agency, plus another 6 RPs they could conceivably cut without costing them anything (and a couple of them will be cut for sure). As you say, there won't be a roster problem.
  18. Doomtints
    There are advantages to keeping Dozier and Santana. This is a "grass is always greener" thing. If either of those were gone, we would now be griping about the quality of the return.
  19. Doomtints
    The problem is the position players developed a lot faster than the front office expected. The pitching now sticks out like a sore thumb, and it was a liability even last year. For a rebuild, ya gotta try to keep the two pipelines reasonably synced or you risk perpetual rebuilds. The Twins are going to have to open up the pocketbook to address the pitching problem and a lot of us recognized this before the season started. I don't buy the idea that the new front office didn't know this for one second, I think they were caught off-guard by the huge improvement on defense and continued improvement on offense. They don't need to break the bank, they don't need to overpay, even as little as two average relievers and nothing more would have made a huge difference. I'm betting that if they could do the offseason over again, they would have picked up a couple of arms.
  20. Doomtints
    If it were me, I would have waited until after the Dodgers series to decide whether to buy or sell. But you know what? The Twins upgraded the team by doing this, they were smart not to wait. The two moves together are masterful. They showed some elite sophistication not seen in these parts since the Pierzynski trade.
  21. Doomtints
    What contender would want Santiago? Waste of time. If necessary, just promote a AAA player for the playoff push instead....
  22. Doomtints
    I should add that it's a closed system / zero sum system. The total # of points in the pool will always be the same.
  23. Doomtints
    Littell - Scouted by Barragan in mid-May. Barragan projects him as a #5 or a long reliever. I know nothing about Barragan's projection accuracy. I respectfully disagree with him here, I think Littell has the potential of being a #3 if he continues to improve. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M58hr9OodC0&feature=youtu.be Enns - A Tommy John alum and scouts have the usual skepticism that goes along with that. Projects to be a #4 guy in the majors, at best, in spite of his great numbers in the minors. I can see him being a #3 and possibly a #2 in his peak years. This was a good trade for the Twins, they flipped a #3 rental for two pitchers who may also end up being #3s. As we know, the organization is lacking in #3s. Good move.
  24. Doomtints
    I have not worked on it this year as I'm busy with a different project, so I can't tell you where the teams are rated right now... though I can calculate it later today if there is interest. Here are the pieces: Run Differential Home W-L, home losses are penalized +20%, and home wins are further adjusted by home stadium park factors, multi-year v. current year. Road W-L, road wins are boosted +20%. Team hitting WAA, team pitching WAA, also adjusted by home park factors The result goes into an algorithm that produces a normalized result (bell curve), with most teams in the 45-55 score range. Good teams score over 55, very good teams over 60. Great teams are in the 70-80 range. As the season goes on and the sample size grows, teams get pulled to the middle of the scale. Finally, to produce expected W-L records, the score is compared v. all baseball team W-L records since 1902. The algorithm produces the answer to this question, "Past teams who had this score after X games had W-L record Y, but also finished with W-L record Z" using similar normalizing formula. We can then see if the team's current W-L record is performing to norms or not, and make a prediction as to where they will end up at the end of the year. As I said, I haven't run this at all this year. However, here's a write-up I did for a friend regarding the Cubs at the end of last year who was convinced his team was probably the top team in history.
  25. Doomtints
    BaseRuns and Pythagorean are both based on run differentials. The latter is straight up run differential, the former is someone's approximation of run differential derived from how many runs they believe will be produced by certain hitting/baserunning events. You may run into the word "sequencing" when reading about BaseRuns, which isn't quite what it's doing but it's the best way to describe it as it includes all offense except for outs. I have studied both systems extensively as I designed a third system which does something similar but includes historical league information to predict the future based on how similar teams performed in the past. My system is more accurate. If I can blow both of these systems away I'm sure anyone around here could do the same thing with a bit of work. After spending a lot of time looking at how these two systems work, it's easy to predict when they will break and how much they will be off.
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