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Doomtints

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Everything posted by Doomtints

  1. Doomtints
    Twins clearly never practiced or discussed how to handle a double steal. The idea was to cause confusion and that's exactly what happened. You can bet the team will be working on it now.
  2. Doomtints
    Good article and discussion.
  3. Doomtints
    http://www.mathematics-monster.com/images5/obtuse_angle.jpg
  4. Doomtints
    I have always been higher on Jorge than other people, but I am unsure about this move at this time. It's unfortunate that the Twins have to dig this deep just to make it through the weekend, but this is their own fault.
  5. Doomtints
    Anyone who is "very good" would not be signing off on a system where only a runner's fastest second is measured. That's peak speed, not sprint speed. In fact, this entire idea is laughable and I'm surprised anyone would play along! I don't know why people who consume baseball stats never question what they are being fed. This contributes to people like Tom Tango being in an echo chamber where work is not properly vetted. There are multiple problems with MLBs definition of "sprint" and their implementation of a "fastest runner" metric. It would take competitive sprinters 3 seconds to reach first base. Sprint runners would laugh in your face if you counted the fastest second in a 3 second window and tried to apply that to the whole. Professional sprinters will also tell you that it is the slowest second that matters -- not the fastest. Races are won by mastering the quick launch, esp. in the 60m, and making it to a base is half that. There is a reason all seconds in a race count. There is also a reason Bill James mocks most sanctioned baseball metrics and the people who consume them without checking for themselves.
  6. Doomtints
    MLB has a flawed approach. This is why others need to be doing the metrics.
  7. Doomtints
    Breslow was good until this month, with a 1.47 ERA one month ago tomorrow. Which free agent pitchers do you think are better? You saw the Twins picked up Gee from waivers, I'm guessing, so you can't say they haven't been paying attention.
  8. Doomtints
    Generally I am against myopic responses and solutions, but there is too much to fix with the pitching and there are no extraneous players on this team apart from Dozier. They had better not be trading Dozier for bullpen arms, and they had better not be making holes elsewhere to get a deal done either. I'm not worried about it, I'm taking a leap of faith and hoping Twins management knows they have no one to spare. Fixing the pitching with this team has to be a process, not an event. It's going to take time. There are simply no trades possible that would fix every pitching problem this team has, nor are there any trades possible that would bring the team's pitching up to average. It's sink or swim with what they have or trade with cash, and cash only deals make the Twins a last resort trading partner. No one wants the Twins 6.00 ERA guns.
  9. Doomtints
    I felt like they were going to return the favor and sweep the series, but I didn't want to jinx it by saying anything.
  10. Doomtints
    I don't remember hearing that around here. The Twins seemed mostly silent about Nolasco and most of us were done with him early on. We felt we were stuck with him due to his contract. The "Ignore everything else, just buy guys with a low FIP" experiment died fast, no?
  11. Doomtints
    He had a boatload of unearned runs this year. ERA+ would be comparing his ERA to the ERA of the league, so the unearned runs don't count. Plus you have to consider that his sample size is 4 relief appearances. But yes, I'm not sure what the Twins will get out of Gee. Certainly more than Hurley, and hopefully more than Gibson/Hughes/Santiago. But it won't be much more. In any case, he's not stretched out so he is probably going to the pen.
  12. Doomtints
    What you said is correct. You can't look at a 0.1 bWAR and say "replacement level" without considering the following: - How does he perform v. league average at his position? - How would the real-life "replacement" player in the Twins system compare to him if he left? Answers: - He is a little worse than the average player at his position this year, but not outside the margin of error and the sample size is small. Last year he was right at average and the year before a bit above average. With all available 3-year data, I would say he's an average player at his position. - The "replacement players" that the Twins could use for Rosario are FAR WORSE than league average, and far worse than Rosario. So is Rosario truly "replacement level" for the Twins? No. Is he "replacement level" for most teams? No. Personally, I think Rosario will be traded and Grossman will take over. But this isn't because Rosario is a lost cause or incompetent, it's because the Twins have other needs and Grossman is better. Rosario is good enough to trade and actually get something in return. Also, yes, his drop off so far this year appears to be largely defensively related.
  13. Doomtints
    Mountain out of a molehill.
  14. Doomtints
    The Royals dominating with a great bullpen but bad starters isn't correct. I know it's an oft-repeated narrative in Twins territory, but it did not exist. The Royals starters were good in the time period in question, as was their defense.
  15. Doomtints
    Close game.
  16. Doomtints
    He has already committed to going to college on a scholarship -- UC Irvine. Look at their W-L record the past 10+ years. If a player doesn't like the team that drafted them, they simply go to college and get drafted again later. This happens every year.
  17. Doomtints
    Argh. He might be going to college. Potentially wasted pick.
  18. Doomtints
    He was great last year, but this year he has 4 utter meltdowns and 3 more bad performances on top of those 4. It looks like he is missing the strike zone v. righties. He's trying to be too fancy. His velocity is up a touch, if he slows down a bit so he can have better control he should be fine. But games like the last one, he's gotta stop that. .
  19. Doomtints
    I see your point, and a three team trade might do the trick. We'll see.
  20. Doomtints
    But trading Dozier for a P prospect makes more sense. Santana can stick around while the prospect learns the ropes. Trading Santana for a prospect is moving backward.
  21. Doomtints
    I was advocating patience with both Molitor's bullpen management and the pitching staff. Things are becoming far too predictable now, however. This type of mismanagement is unfair to the Twins players who are playing hard and winning in spite of it. if Molitor can't manage a pitching staff, he needs to fall on his sword, admit he sucks at it, and let the pitching coach make the decisions during games. It's clear that there are a couple of pitchers on this team who can't pitch. let them go. Replace them with anybody who can keep an ERA around 5, which would be a huge improvement. Recent retirees, minor leaguers, converted starters, whoever. When you have a position player pitching as often as this team has, that's a screaming flashing red alarm that needs to be addressed.
  22. Doomtints
    That's the past. There is no telling what will be on the table in the future. Imagine if a baseball GM spent his time second guessing everything as you are now.
  23. Doomtints
    Gibson and Turley are not even the worst of the problem. You still have Santiago and Hughes to contend with.
  24. Doomtints
    Can the Twins win without Dozier? I think they can. This makes him expendable in my view. How much worse do you think the Twins would be without him?
  25. Doomtints
    No idea. Not seeing any metrics there. Care to provide some metrics?
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