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DocBauer

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Everything posted by DocBauer

  1. All the more reason to look at the FA INF depth available now, and probably available 3-4 weeks from now and sign an inexpensive veteran 11th man to the roster.
  2. We forget how young Lewis is. How much improvement happened for him in 2020? Wouldn't be shocked if Simons was back in 2022.
  3. Late bloomer, disappointing first year and no 2020. Just can't put Cavaco this high on a list even though I wish for the best and have a lot of faith in the FO and their scouting department. Thought I did hear he looked decent at instructs though and had added some good muscle weight to get ready for 2021. Crossing my fingers for him .
  4. I am holding out hope for Miranda. It just FEELS like he is talented enough to "get it" and put it together over the next year or two and push his way forward. A battle between him and Blankenhorn to be the next 10th man and future 3B option? Maybe. Sands...WOW...can you just stay healthy? We talk about the "Cleveland" influence. And we get obsessed with Duran and Balozic for good reason. But Sands and Winder could be SO GOOD and push those two in the next year or so. Prospects are still that for now, but I haven't seen this many SP in the system for years now that garner real optimism.
  5. All of this is arbitrary, of course. But I wouldn't place De Andre so high as a recent 16yo signing despite projection. Same might be said for Rodriguez, though I understand projection. Just not sure it's fair to place them this high so soon, especially with the overall depth of the system. Especially considering Sano and Javeier signings of the past. I might move them down a 10 notch based on what is on hand and their youth. Soularie is very interesting. He seems to be athletic, with hit and pop/power potential. He was the least exciting draft choice the Twins made last year, IMO. I wasn't crazy about Saboto, but I got it. Raya, even as a high ceiling flier was the most impressive draft choice to me. Soularie seems/feels like Rosario part 2. And that's not necessarily a bad thing. Feels like he is an athlete who could play 2B, CF, (which I believe he did some) or LF. I always appreciate but somewhat discount scout profiles. I'd rather believe in the FO's opinion. Think Jeffers for example. But is he really worth this high a ranking with so many question marks? I say no nd would drop him at this point to the next 10 until we actually see him play.
  6. I LOVE this and not just because we have something substantial to talk about now, lol. My first choice was Semien because I thought he brought the most balance of both offense and defense. But $18M??? NO WAY!! This was my 2nd choice as far as the FA SS that were available. No matter how good they are, I never wanted to part with any top prospects for a potential trade rental of Story or Baez. And I never thought the FO wanted to do that either. Financially, this is a bargain based on most projections I've seen. That is not unimportant as it provides more $ financial wiggle room. Part of the beauty of this is beyond the ability and the contract. Something I'm not sure everyone gets. The Twins don't HAVE to name Polanco OR Arraez as the 10th man. There is room for BOTH. I believe Marwin, based on 2019 and the pro-rated numbers for 2020, would have him around 450+ AB. So again, room for EVERYONE! For the moment, forget about Cruz. Forget a cheap 5th SP flier and a hopeful BP addition or two. Yes, Cruz will afford some coin. But they have it to spend. A 5th SP flier won't be expensive. And yes, there are some very interesting BP options to add that won't break the bank. But for a moment, just focus on the infield. We shouldn't stop here! INSURE the infield is as deep and versatile as the OF is! Especially considering there remain some injury concerns, even though we hope for the best. I am NOT taking anything away from the excitement I have, or we should all have, from this move. But we still have need for an 11th man. History and just daily depth and options tell us this. Have you taken time to just look at the remaining options out there? Think about Cabrera for $2-3M at 1B/2B/3B. Gyorko, Frazier, Miller, Schoop, Villar, and there are others to consider as well. There could be great value here for our FO who likes to lay low and wait.
  7. I fully appreciate your sentiment in regards made by another post. But I have to object here. Odorizzi is/was not a poor player much less a Ford Taurus, lol. He is a quality SP who was an All Star in 2019. His injuries in 2020 were not career threatening and were basically flukish in nature. Had 2020 been a full season, be woukd have undoubtedly been a quality contributor for at least half of the year. Bailey was signed as an experienced back end SP on the cheap who seemed to get healthy again. The injury bug bit him yet again, but be was OK in his few IP. We'll never know what might have been, but AGAIN with a full season, He could have been a really nice #5 option if we aren't talking only 60 games. Hill wasn't as good as hoped for, and peripherals show that, but be was signed to be a solid to good half season veteran pitcher. For the most part, he was that. Your Corvette was Maeda. Your "Mustang" was Berrios once he settled down. I understand your analogy and fully hope and appreciate the young arms coming up as well as making further additions that are quality. But the Twins didn't have a rotation/garage filled with junkers in 2020. They just had some guys who didn't "run rignt" as hoped for or expected.
  8. Combination of bad auto-correct and being very tired, but you are correct. We got just short of 12". Seventh highest on record. Fun, fun, fun!
  9. Now that I've been home for a few hours, shoveled TWICE and completed various household chores, I'm ready to add a few comments to an interesting OP that may die tomorrow, lol. But here goes: PAYROLL: The FO,and ownership, have pushed payroll each year since this group has been running things as value presents itself. They have basically stated they know they are not done, acknowledge there is value out there, and have repeated their own past mantra that they are willing to buy late rather than shoo early and go home. Watching what is happening across baseball right now, teams that appear to be contenders are making moves and seem to be keeping payroll at 2020 levels, or higher while teams that don't appear to be contenders are sitting out FA, making cuts, or small moves. IMO, I believe the "target" payroll for the Twins is around $130M with leeway because they recognize there are going to be some late options to be had. NEEDS: 1A] A BAT: Ozuna is nice, but with a group of very promising bats ready and nearly ready, they don't need to tie up 4yrs on Ozuna. Cruz absolutely makes the most sense. 1yr is a done deal. A 2nd yr can work with discount/performance numbers or a fair buyout. Perhaps a combination of all. It makes the most sense for both sides. 1B] INFIELDER: This could be any of the top 3 FA SS or someone like La Stella as a valuable 3 position 10th man. Signing a SS is a greater $ cost, but might add more total value and hedges against some of the ankle and knee concerns with Polanco and Adrianza. Both are young and talented and whichever one slides in to the 10th man role they STILL play almost daily. Where there is smoke there is often fire. I think the FO is looking HARD at one of the FA SS. (Note: If they keep Polanco at SS, then in addition to a valued 10th man, they need a legitimate Adrianza type to cover SS as the 11th man.) Cruz and a SS signing means the payroll sits around $128-130M, or the "target" area. But again, it's only a target and not necessarily the final destination. There is a difference between LIKING your roster/depth/flexibility and LOVING your roster/depth/flexibility. It doesn't take a savant to look at the total number of FA available to realize there are going to be solid guys looking for jobs and be available on value deals. 3] 11th MAN INFIELDER: With enough concern about Donaldson, Polanco and Adrianza health wise...even with hope/expectation they will all 3 be ready to go...why wouldn't you add inexpensive insurance? IF they stick with Polanco at SS, and sign a quality 10th man he probably doesn't play SS. Instead he plays 1B/2B/3B like La Stella, for example. So you need that Adrianza AS replacement. IF they sign a SS, Polanco can cover SS whether he is the 10th man or the starting 2B. Why not deepen your roster with another quality infielder on the cheap? An example I've brought up before, but how about Cabrera as a veteran bat for something like $3M? And there are others that could be valuable. 4] 5th SP: What about a $2-4M option...maybe with some incentives...or an invite with incentives to compete with Dobnak for the 5th spot? There is enough depth on the FA list that there could be a late rotation flier that costs very little. 5] BULLPEN: There won't be a major $ signing. But how about Colome or Soria for $3-5M? And maybe Clippard for $2-3M in addition? Not including a couple $M in incentives for a SP option, you could POTENTIALLY add an 11th man, 5th SP, and 1 or 2 BP arms come February for a total of around $10-12M. That pushes the payroll to the $140M-ish range. Which is keeping payroll in line with 2020 and in line with the payroll of contending teams at this point. AGAIN, there is a difference between LIKING your team and LOVING your team.
  10. I am fully OK with an upgrade at SS and some sort of transference of Polanco or Arraez to a utility role. Any way you can upgrade your team, it's a good thing. But I have to say I think upgrading the bench in GENERAL is what's important, and that's not necessary adding that SS. I mean, does that SS mean you are done and can't bring in another bat? No more SP or RP options? Only one of the above options? Now it still comes down to final payroll. But right now, someone like La Stella to play 3 spots and provide a nice bat and an Adrianza replacement for SS and the 11th man role makes a lot of sense to me. That's half of the $ to bring in a SS and gives you more money for the other spots to be added to the roster yet. So how much positive value does a new SS add to the team as a whole vs adding a couple nice 10th and 11th man options and still have some $ to add another 2 or 3 players?
  11. Rosenthal is still there if you are looking for a potential difference maker. History says I wouldn't go expensive, but I'd trust Rocco to use him right and Johnson to keep the walks down. Soria is still out there as a 1yr option who could fit in nicely. Why isn't Clippard already on board who can handle both sides of the plate in the middle innings on the cheap? TOTALLY understand the talent on hand and coming up. But there are too many arms and innings missing. I don't want to trust Alcala and others out of the gate. Blew it on Yates, IMO, but there is still room to add a valuable arm or two for 2021 to deepen the pen and allow the kids time to prove themselves.
  12. His glove was very good to great at 2B/SS/3B. And while not an ideal fit, he learned to play a fine 1B as well. When pressed to the OF, he was at least OK out there. And except for 2020...and I'd think we almost dismiss it like a lot of players...his bat was solid and at least "complimentary". He was a far better hitter than the "traditional" utility infielder as we've known the position over the years. I really thought he might be brought back for about $1M as an inexpensive 11th man for 2021. In other words, regardless of a high quality SS or 10th man addition, budget constraints might have kept the team from signing an even better 11th man option and he may have been a fine/OK re-sign to fill his old role. There remains a number of high quality/versatile FA options to fill a 10th and even 11th man roles. Hernandez and Profar are gone, but what about LaStella, for example, and then the next best 11th man option who can cover SS. Recent events are telling me three different and distinct things: 1] The Twins are indeed very serious about adding at SS with some move of Polanco or Adrianza to the 10th man role. If this is the case, there still are a number of quality options to bring on board for a versatile 11th man to increase depth and flexibility. Just as an example: Cabrera to play 1B/2B/3B and emergency SS behind Polanco. There are others, of course. 2] The Twins are committed and convinced Polanco will be healthy and fine at SS, and are looking for a 10th man who can play around the field and bring a decent bat and then bring in someone besides Adrianza who can cover SS. Once again, names like LaStella and Cabrera rise to prominence with someone...hopefully not some journeyman AAAA player...to replace Adrianza as the 11th man who can play a good SS. 3] Unexpectedly, considering rumors and opportunity, financial strings have the Twins remaining status quo across the infield with fingers crossed and the 10th and 11th man spots will be filled by inexpensive options like Marwin and player X. I'm fine with either #1 or #2 options. Each option brings merit and opportunity for a deep and versatile infield that could be productive. Option #3 scares the hell out of me. Do we, as I suggested in a different thread, give Marwin a muligan for 2020 as we do for so many other players, and assume he would be the solid/dependable 2019 version of himself? And do we then also assume the FO is smart enough to bring on board at least another equivalent glove man as Adrianza has been? Am I over-reacting to a glove first decent utility infielder being gone? Probably. Am I over-reacting to the likes of Hernandez and Profar being signed elsewhere and "rumors" of other infield targets being looked at by other teams? Maybe. But infield options can't be ignored and dismissed easily. And I have a lot of faith in the FO and fully appreciate their patient approach. But there are enough question marks regarding the infield that depth is a concern. And at some point moves have to be made.
  13. Nothing against local boy Hand, but Rosenthal would be my Choice as well. I trust Rocco's pen usage of him and Johnson to keep the walks under control
  14. I'm OK with this move. I'm not great with it, but I'm OK with it. He's very solid, deepens the rotation and provides a bridge for the young guys. I like the move even more if Happ is part 1 of 2 parts and someone else is being brought on board.
  15. I wasn't bummed out about Hendricks. I am bummed about Yates. He may never come back to what he was. But at $5M, I thought be was a PERFECT addition to the Twins. I have a lot of trust in our team to build a bullpen. And to be fair, there still remains a few arms who could be great values amongst what they have. But losing Yates kinda ticks me off! It was a PERFECT situation. Patient, patient, patient, trusting, trusting, trusting...know the method of madness that is the off-season of MLB and how well this FO has done...but patience and trust are being challenged right now.
  16. A very well thought out and well researched arguement that I want to believe in. I WANT to believe in Quintana based on previous years of watching him, his IP, and his final results before joining the Cubs. I WANT to believe at 32yo, the same age as fellow lefty Paxton but with a better IP and health history, he has life left to make him a potential steal in a new environment. I think Johnson is a tremendous pitching coach. But in the article you reference many negatives from arm slot to pitch mix to virtually abandoning a slider/cutter he had previously. At what point do we dismiss the bandbox of Wrigly Field and the Cubs poor handling of his abilities and repertoire and just wonder if the last 3 seasons are reality vs fixable issues? I threw away my crystal and magic 8 ball years ago because they never seemed to work right. LOL I understand the arguement here that he could be a steal. But it also sounds like he's been a bit of a mess for 3yrs now. Just how good of a janitor is Johnson to clean up that mess? I WANT this to be a signing and have something close to the old Quintana. And the FO and Johnson are way smarter than I am. But I'm just not sure this would be the mountain I would choose to climb from the outside looking in. Personally, beyond Bauer, I don't feel the market is as vacant as many subscribe to. I think there are a few really nice 3/4 options available to raise the staff beyond the trade market. (Which remains a possibility). Quintana is absolutely one of those possibilities, despite the obvious question marks. And while I can't wait for a couple young arms to rise up soon, I have to ask, is "fixing" Quintana a better option than Odorizzi returning?
  17. Nick I'm going to see your "ugh" and raise you an "ugh"! The Twins have a big decision to make and that is trusting in Polanco and his ankle and adding a nice 10th man option, along with a solid 11th man option...OR...signing one of the THREE quality FA SS available and shuffling Polanco/Adrianza to the 10th man role. And this decision is as big as Cruz vs ?, or another SP. But a decision needs to be made! All 3 FA SS intrigue me for different reasons. All 3 upgrade the roster. They just bring different things to the table. And if you make that move, there are STILL a number of very interesting options just sitting out there to be added as an 11th man option on the cheap. For example, once again, Cabrera, Gyorko, Frazier, Miller, etc. They trust Polanco's ankle? Then grab Hernandez, Profar or LaStella as a 10th man and you can STILL grab a nice 11th man like I just listed. Personally, I like Profar's OK defense but better offense than Hernandez. As far as Marwin goes..and I'm not trying to put lipstick on a pig here...i thought his defense was still fine in 2020. His bat in 2019 wasn't quite was hoped for but was solid. But while his 2020 bat was nothing but atrocious, how can we dismiss 2020 for so many players, not just on the Twins, and not give him at least SOME benefit of the doubt as well? NOT my choice, but I'm just saying.
  18. In that picture, man does he look almost exactly like a younger version if his dad! The Twins have always loved to promote from within and utilize former players for anything from coaches to instructors, to even radio and TV personalities. While not knowing to what degree other organizations do the same the Twins have to be amongst the most aggressive in this area. And I have always applauded such moves. And our current FO has maintained this "tradition" that began decades before they were placed in charge. But this FO also does things very differently than they were done in previous regimes. So any calls of nepotism would be grossly misplaced. Toby is where he is because of who he is and his hard work and knowledge. He's not where he because he was a journeyman infielder with the team or because of any favor to his father. Funny story, that I may have repeated some years ago, but several years ago when Toby was still a young milb infielder within the system, he called up Ron one night to ask him how to hit the low and outside slider. Ron's reported response was, "I'm going to hang up now. Think about what you just asked." Toby called back the next day to state, "You don't swing at it." LOL My favorite story for both men! Obviously Toby has learned a lot since those days.
  19. 1] DH: I wouldn't be disappointed in Ozuna, but I really don't like the 4yr commitment. Part of the reason I like Cruz is the short term investment while Krilloff, Rooker and Larnach get their feet wet. No Cruz? I like Brantley for 2yrs because he HITS, gets OB, has 20 HR and 40 Dbls power and can play a legitimate OF. He could hit 1-3 in this lineup and be very valuable. 2] SP: I like Paxton. I like that he's been very good when healthy. I like that he's LH. I like Odorizzi better. Still can't understand what's so terrible about a really good and sometimes great #3/4 SP even if he is only good for 5-6 IP. I also think there's going to be a TON of low cost fliers available late looking for an opportunity. Choose the right flier and you might find a #5 steal. 3] INF: With 3 excellent choices as a new SS, I don't see a trade for one. The question simply is, do the Twins want to make this move? If they do, then make your choice, shuffle Polanco or Arraez around and then one of several cheap options that are still out there for an 11th man role. Example: Cabrera for $2-3M. If you aren't going to make the big SS move, then make your choice for the 10th man role amongst the top choices, and then STILL sign that 11th man. But make a decision! 4] BP: Rosenthal has a big arm and might be had for $7M. Yates might be as good or better and come cheaper at $5M. Soria and Clippard and a few others are still available for $2.5-3M. Just because the Twins aren't going to sign a $10M relief arm doesn't mean there isn't some quality and real value out there.
  20. So reports are that Kluber's rehab trainer works for the Yankees, so that might have nudged him further that direction as well. Paxton yes, though I think I still prefer Odorizzi and a better track record of health, 2020 not withstanding. Everyone else here would be on my list for "cheap" 5th rotation fliers. Not so sure a couple of these guys might not end up being ST invites with incentives and early outs.
  21. Pretty much agree 100% with you, Tom. Not surprising as I've pretty much been saying the same things for two months. Tanaka probably has only 1-5 teams he would sign with and the Yankees a clear #1 choice. Healthy and coming off solid years, I'm interested in both Richardson and Walker. Each offers up a bit of healthy "upside", especially Walker. I think it's about 50/50-60/40 the Twins sign a FA or trade for a SP. But it has to be Paxton or Odorizzi if they go the FA route. They have the $ to afford either and both are clearly the best options available. Good news is each of them are really solid pitchers. Honestly, how can anyone feel bad about either of those guys competing for the 3/4 spot with Pineda? I strongly believe the Twins will also be signing someone from your D and F list for around $3M-ish for depth and to compete for the 5th spot. Just not sure I can offer up a best option list. But there's going to be a lot of guys who want to play and will be looking for work in the next few weeks. Might even be some milb signings with ST invites who could surprise. I also wouldn't be surprised if the "cheap" option was added first, much like Bailey last season. I'm bored to tears right now waiting for things to happen, but I'm still kind of excited about the options available.
  22. Skipped a few posts and realized I didn't miss anything at all. (My apologies to posters). This thread is about Oddo. We got him for nothing. He was solid in 2018. He was great in 2019 and earned an All Star invite, FWIW, and finished well after a dip. His 2020 was a NIGHTMARE of injury but just nickel and dime stuff in retrospect. So he's just some 31yo "afterthought" at this point? Forgetting Bauer, who is better out there on the FA market? NOBODY other than possibly Tanaka. And there is a serious debate as to the Yankees, or a west coast team or a return to Japan. Agent hype? Maybe. Oddo is NOT a number 1 and on a contendjng team not a #2. But he is a very solid #3 To compete with Pineda and often pitches like he was a #2. What's not to like at $12M-ish?
  23. Too SSS to suggest he has a career path of anything close to dominance in any way. BUT, in that SSS, he has also shown tremendous control and fortitude. So far, be has done everything he could possibly do to show he could have a great career as a middle reliever. And that is a good thing! IF he did find a decent 3rd pitch, it could move him forward to a role as part of a late inning option. I've seen enough of him thus far to pen him in as part of the 2021 bullpen. He is not Alcala or the potential of Corina at this point, both of whom I think the Twins have faith in, but he doesn't have to be. I've seen, thus far, all I have to see that he can be a quality middle relief option who gets the job done. I think Rocco and the FO feels the same. Now, some sort of change via a cutter or something else developed, he could take a step forward.
  24. Appreciate the sentiment Ash. But the RP is filled with a number of intriguing options. The SP options are Bauer...however you feel about him...and a TON of interesting options that don't excite, but have value. Does not taking a $10M-ish flier mean they are going cheap? (And I've been in for $8-10M as a shot for some time on Kluber). Or does it mean they think Oddo, Walker, Richardson, etc, as good and safe an option? Or are they really looking at trade options similar to the moves they have made for Odorizzi and Maeda the last 2 yrs?
  25. I was interested for $8-10M with some incentives, MAYBE a similar 2nd year option if both parties were interested. Every year there is someone who makes a surprise comeback. And Kluber is the #1 most likely to do that in 2021. He's scary but intriguing as hell! But more than $10M pushes me to the pass category. What does this say about Tanaka? Either the Yankees know something we don't know, or they also are pinching a few $. Maybe they have a secret agreement already? Just find them seemingly moving on very interesting. Does Maeda know Tanaka? Can he put in a good word for the Twins and living in the Midwest?

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