DocBauer

I don't buy in to the Dirty Sox just yet. They made some good additions and have some young talent on hand and some just about ready to make their mark. But I just think they need too much to go right at the same time to challenge this season. Cleveland is still dangerous. You have to give them the advantage in SP, even though though the Twins have quality and depth. I also like the Twins BP and depth over the Indians. We can debate INF vs OF but it's a balancing act. I'd pick the Twins overall, including DH. In the whole of AL/NL Central, the Twins and Indians should be the top 2 teams. I still don't feel the whole "Central" battle is quite the cake walk some make it out to be as there are 4 teams in the NL that could be 30+ win teams, plus Cleveland and the CDS to contend with. But Cleveland is the only team that really worries me.

Got anything good to share? I haven't see anything about Sunday.

Dobnak and Smeltzer just seem so obvious. Agree with mike that Chacin does nothing for me. Especially after what we saw in ST 1.0. I'd rather stick with the young, talented arms vs a veteran re-tread. But is Chacin showing something more/Different in ST 2.0? I could see the Twins sticking with Chacin initially because once gone, he's gone for good. I just really hope they stick to youth and upside. The "problem" I see here is too much talent. Yes, I actually said that. Assuming health and Bailey fitting in to the 5th slot, the pen FIGURES to be settled with Rogers, May, Duffey, Romo, Clippard, Littell and Stashak. (Subject to poor performance we haven't seen as of yet). With one more spot available, and I'm betting Wisler takes it. The roster allows for 30 men, then 28, then 26. Barring injury or illness, where is there room for Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe when the roster crunch happens? This a GOOD PROBLEM to have. These things tend to work themselves out over a season, even a short one. But when have you ever been able to say the Twins have more quality arms than roster spots?

I would go back further and talk about Robert Smith. Injury plagued his first couple of seasons and then learned to conserve his body, or have better luck, or both, and the rest is history, (I've made this point so often it makes me irritated to state it again, lol). I'd even argue Smith was the best RB in the history of the Vikings franchise over AP, but retired early and on his own. Different topic for a different day, but we can also look at Hunters early career. He was rushed. He also fought injury. Finally, the Twins had Hunter work with Buck! A cleat in the grass is freaky, as has been a couple of his other injuries. And whether you believe in karma or not, you just DON'T give up on a 26yo talent like Buxton no matter how frustrated you may feel. His defense is extraordinary, but all of us, Twins included, would give up a few singles and a few doubles over a season if it kept him on the field. Because his being on the field still means some great outs, and some quality offense. There is no need to re-post the offensive numbers posted above in the OP. Simply, healthy, despite scratching the surface of his potential, Buck is a dangerous presence on the offensive side of the game if healthy. And he's still young, learning and growing! With a little caution, luck and development, can you imagine how good he could be a year or two from now? If injury persists and the kid remains unlucky or prone, with other talent in the pipeline, I get it. But I totally agree that now is not the time to give up on Buxton.

Sorry, but that ranking or lack of, is a joke. Hill may only be able to handle half a season but that's what he's being asked to do. And he's been great in those half seasons for a few years now and reports are he's primed and ready. (Fingers crossed for what I believe is his swan song). Berrios is STILL only 26yo and his only problem is fading late in the season, yes, I said ONLY as that is a big deal, of course. But he rebounded last year after making some adjustments to his intense training regime. And he was going to make more this season to focus more on general conditioning before the stop. Still young, still learning, he has a tremendous future. But a 60 game season? There should be no doubts about potential dominance. Oddorizi is not great, but he is solid to good to sometimes great, even if it's only 5-6IP. He was good in 2018 and turned a corner in 2019. As recounted in another thread, despite a better 1st half than 2nd, he was really good in 2019. Take away July when he was dealing with a blister issue, he was even better. He's a solid #2 but a great #3. And I hope he will be that beyond 2020. Maeda is also no stud. But his career numbers are very good. He was never thrown in to the Dogers bullpen because he couldn't pitch. Despite rumors the RICH Dogers were looking to save $ on his unique contract, it has been reported repeatedly he was moved to the pen to shore up a weakness there for a playoff run since they bad enough rotation depth. He is also coming off his best career year against LH batters. Bailey? You tell me. Sure seemed like he re-invented himself last year. If not, how about a healthy Pineda who was borderline excellent once he literally got his legs under him last season. Oh wait, how about Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer? Channing1964 made a post in the Odorizzi OP a few days ago from the Athletic where there was a poll of scouts who ranked SP on some sort of 1-4 poll. This by no means is any sort of MLB gospel, but the way the final results tallied, the Twins would have 5 or 6 of the TOP 60 SP in baseball even if they didn't have a top ACE. Yes, I'm a homer. But I've watched this team play and I've seen these arms. Not even in the top 10??? PLEASE!!!

This thread will probably die quickly, but just wanted to state I always thought letting Goodrum go was a mistake. And I'm very happy he found a home and is enjoying a degree of success. And when you look at the Twins, as currently constructed, you'd have to wonder if there would be any room for him at this point. Maybe in 2018, not so sure about 2019 or now. But kinda stinks to see a solid, versatile and fairly productive Twins home grown player doing well for someone else.

Poppen has always intrigued me. He just turned 26 I believe and was a 19th round draft choice. No handbook handy in front of me, will refer to Seth's comment above about FB/slider combination. To my best recollection he has never made a top 20 list and not sure hes even made a top 30 one either. And while his milb numbers aren't eye popping, they are solid across the board from ERA to BA, WHIP, BB/SO, with a career K rate of almost spot on at a K/9. I think he's always flown under the radar. I'm not sure why, but suspected it was pure velocity, or absence of a reliable 3rd or even 4th offering. But the K's are there, his velocity seemed good in his brief 2019 debut, and again, Seth speaks above about a good FB. I think, universally, those in the know would state that Alcala's pure stuff is better. Better control...which Hawkins alluded to...and ANY kind of even semi-decent 3rd offering, even as a look-see pitch, could vault him towards an important bullpen role, and sooner rather than later. I also agree the Twins could still ultimately "win" the Pressly trade in a season or two, but that's beside the current point. But right now, I'm betting on Poppen contributing 1st, followed by Alcala. Just have a feeling Poppen is more ready. Agree with John and others that I really, really hope Colina is kept as a SP for as long as possible. I view Chalmers and Colina with the same eye. (Was actually surprised not to see Chalmers in this OP). While different arms and somewhat different aspects to work on, they are much the same to me. There are control issues and 3rd pitch offerings to find. But both have tremendous stuff that could hopefully find both as rotation pieces in the next couple of years. (Damn but I hate not having an actual milb season)! And both seem to have the stuff to be dangerous BP arms. But I want both stretched out and working on starting for as long as possible. Thielbar would be a fun story. But it's not a story I'm buying in to. On a staff already crunching about 15 arms, where could he possibly fit unless injury/illness decimates? He might even be behind the much younger Clay in pecking order at this point. Congrats to him for keeping his dream alive. And maybe he didn't want to stick with the Tigers or they didn't like him for some reason. But if one of the most talent strapped teams in baseball doesn't keep you around, I'm just not sure the writing isn't on the wall.

Sorry if I said this before, but I like Eddie and believe in him. I also think he has great instincts. I think his biggest issue...other than a general wildness in his plate coverage...has been a pair of injuries that limited him for parts of the past 2 seasons. His sticking around might not even be questioned if not for those injuries. (Hampered his defense as well). I think he's back in 2021 not only because he's good, and his 2021 salary bump isn't really that significant, but no milb season will make it tougher for Larnach and Kirilloff to take that next step. Working with the coaches and scrimmaging is awesome compared to sitting at home. But it's not the same as a full season of play and development. Ergo, Rosario is the right choice for LF in 2021 at this time.

I believe you are thinking of Hughes

The one thing I enjoyed reading, but didn't previously comment on, was Romo's opinion of Stashak and Littell about to have a coming out party. When someone with his experience says something positive about a couple young arms, I pay attention. And there's more on their way; Alcala, Poppen, Colina perhaps, etc. I made a comment some months ago as to the depth and ability of our pen after such a strong 2019 that they were undervalued mainly because they were too young to have NAME value and recognition as a result. 2020 could be a fun "coming out party".

I agree that any piggy back scenario we are seeing is for ST 2.0. With the initial 30 man roster, it could be an initial reality to get things up and running. But a normal rotation will be in place rather soon, with a deep and talented BP.

I've been impressed with Smeltzer thus far. Flat out, he knows how to pitch. And that can never be discounted. But when you have limited velocity, you need to be able to really work the batter. An improved slider does a lot to raise his bar. I wouldn't bet against the kid, guts and instinct, especially if he finds a slider that works. But Thorpe and Dobnak have better pure stuff and Duran and Balazovic are on their way. I think he ends up fitting in best as a versatile pen arm who can give you 1-3 IP and spot start.

Oddo had a very good year, though was better the first half for sure. As stated, take away a rough month dealing with a finger issue and his season is even more impressive. In a 60 game season, anything is possible, of course. I like him a lot, glad he's back, and hope for an extension. But I just can't call him an ACE due to limited IP. He's a good #2 and a great #3. But is there further room to improve? Berrios, younger and still growing, is our #1, IMO. Hill, ready to go for a 60 game short season, could be even better for 2020, however. IMHO, Hill is done after this season, at least with the Twins. If Oddo is back in 2021, I really like that rotation as well. I'd like it better if Duran and Balazovic could gain valuable instruction, if not game time, to help set up 2021.

If Cave could show enough defensively, (seems to have the physical ability but instincts are questionable), or Wade could show enough bat to go along with contact/OB ability, I'd really like to see one of them play CF on a normal basis instead of Kepler. Max is fine in CF, I just hate moving him out of RF on a regular basis because he's so good there. Like Kirilloff and Rooker getting time at 1B. It just makes sense to play them there and develop their versatility and team depth. Doesn't mean either, especially in the case of Kirilloff, can't find a home in the OF. But the more flexible and deep the team is, the easier it is to find room for everyone. Love Blankenhorn playing 3B! It may not be a permanent home, but if he can play it adequately, along with 2B and LF, he becomes much more important as a future piece. (I'd think RF and 1B should follow eventually).

One of these days, Romo and Clippard are going to hit a wall due to age. But nothing we saw last year shows that wall is dead ahead for either of these guys. I absolutely love having these 2 as quality, experienced arms for performance as well as leadership. As stated, it's not like the other relievers are exactly long in the tooth at this point. Having guys like this is going to mean so much, IMO, as a valuable resource for all these young arms.

Of course! Because....Minnesota.

My initial response was this should be easy as we're only talking 2020. And then I read. Ugh. Appreciate your thoughts but can't agree. I LOVE the potential of Chalmers and am happy the Twins included him. His position and value are TBD. But if they have to turn to him in 2020, then something has gone very right or very wrong. Alcala and Poppen and others are ranked deservedly higher. But these guy should CLEARLY be numbered in the 30's. Unless something dramatic happens, Lewis shouldn't see MLB this year. Thorpe and Dobnak could easily make the 30 man roster initially and have solid careers. Thorpe's stuff screams ML starter, or at worst, quality BP arm. His milb career and peripherals in 2019 say the same. Dobnak's problem, IMPO, is he is simply undervalued due to his story and lack of previous prospect standing. While I put Smeltzer behind these two for what should be obvious reasons, so far, he has done nothing but impress and look "solid". I'm thinking a nice career as a long/middle man and spot starter. I appreciate Wiel for all he has done. And he could surprise. But I see him as a "break glass" for 2020 and would have him lower. It's a tough exercise. But I think there are pitchers too low and some position players too high.

Let us continue to remember how good Berrios has been, how much he has flashed, and remember he only turned 26yo in May. Not sure you could ask for better stuff, better determination or work ethic. But it is that work ethic I and others have commented on. Berrios and the Twins have all commented that he needed to learn to dial things down a bit in his regiment to simply maintain endurance for a full season. That began in 2019 when he again slipped in the 2nd half only to rally and pitch better than he bad before. And there was talk all during the off season and during the initial ST he would dial back his routine the 2nd half to maintain endurance. (Immense workouts don't always mean endurance for a full ML season). I was, originally, looking forward to the still only 26yo Berrios to adjust his routine, grow as a "pitcher" with experience and very probably have his best season to date. But right now, with a 60 game season, this whole idea sort of gets thrown out the window for 2020. He is right at the precipice where talent meets knowledge to become his best, I've spoken of this before. He might even be a year or so early. I think Oddo hit the spot last season. Maeda is probably already there, based on previous results and the best year against LH hitters. Hill is beyond that point but not yet "hanging on" based on 2019. He appears to have one more season in the sun on his side. Trust me, Berrios will lead this team in 2020 and beyond with Oddo right behind...who WILL re-sign IMO...with Maeda and a group of talented arms to round things out going forward. Berrios needs to be re-signed long term. Even with the weird economics of baseball right now and future speculation, you have to keep what you have at some point. And not all great pitchers are 6' 2" and 215lbs plus.

Nice post! And I really want to speak about the Rosario portion of your comment. While he has always been a bit of an enigma and may always be, he is very talented and has been very productive, especially when healthy. While I don't recall a "serious" injury at the ML level thus far...one that would rob him of serious time...he has battled a shoulder issue in 2018 and the knee in 2019. There have been posts about age 27 being when a player begins to hit his peak. Still only 28yo until late September of this year, I think Rosario could argue he has mostly hit his peak years when healthy. Recent comments by him state he recognizes his need to be more disciplined in his approach and just lay off certain locations. (Though we all know Eddie has also delivered and crushed balls at times that he just shouldn't have been able to). Now, is this lip service or real maturation as a ballplayer? Only time will tell. We have all concluded, myself as well, that 2021 will be Rosario's last as a Twin simply due to economics and the talent behind him. And that may turn out to be true. But only 28, if healthy, what can he do the next 5-6yrs for us or someone else? Despite the economics of baseball right now, I'd expect Rosario back in 2021 at this point. No matter how well the Twins manage development of Kirilloff, Larnach and Rooker without an actual milb season, don't you still bring back Rosario in 2021 for what will still be a pretty manageable contract? And couldn't any trade value only increase with a healthy 2020, short season or not? I'm a fan! But somebody has to move eventually, whether it be Rosario or a prospect. But IMO, just like Buxton and Kepler, we haven't seen the very best of a still maturing Rosario yet.

Nick, really appreciate your efforts, even though I, of course, didn't like the final outcome. Lol FWIW, I actually thought the system was pretty true to final statistics. I have to say, hitting/production wise, I think Arraez was a little high and Kepler a little low. I also think the game penalized Buxton for time missed in the past vs his production when healthy. Buck's numbers just don't equate with me. Pitching wise I really have only tiny quibbles that aren't worth mentioning, only to say a real season might have produced slightly better numbers here or there. But the game seemed to have a real built in prejudice against Hill. I assume that can only be related to coming off his surgery and whatever projection algorithm they used. If early reports are correct, and based on history, the game blew it's read on Hill. It was a lot of fun and I thank you for all your work.

Not going to apologize to anyone when the Twins have a great season and win around 40 games. You play the games presented to you and you go out and win them! I fully appreciate how the Twins path is supposedly easier not facing the East or the West. I get it. But every season is fresh and has all its own unique surprises between health, development and career years. Cleveland is still good and shouldn't be taken lightly. I know this sounds crazy, but the Royals scare me more than the Dirty Sox because they always seem to play the Twins so tough. We could dominate Chicago and yet have a losing record to KC because...well...baseball. (shrug) With very few exceptions, the Cardinals are never bad. The Brewers were a playoff team in 2019. The Cubs still have the ability to run away with the NLC if they can figure out their pen and replace Quintana to some acceptable degree. (I had forgotten about his injury). I had dismissed the Reds early on this year when conversations started because it just felt to me they were treading water. I guess I didn't give them enough credit because after reading this. They have the potential be dangerous. Paraphrasing Cruz in a pre-workout speech he gave: "look around at the talent here and ask yourselves, why not us?" And I agree 100%. This team is even deeper and more talented than the 2019 version. I think any sort of "cake walk" to a division championship is misguided, especially in a short season where anything can happen. But if Rocco and the leadership on this team keep their focus, why on earth shouldn't 40 wins be the goal? It could be argued, and I mentioned it briefly in a different OP, that not playing certain other top teams over the course of this abbreviated season could be considered a negative when it comes playoff time. In sports, don't you tend to get better playing against the best? Or is that too much hyperbole, especially in a short season? After all, those other teams don't have to play the Twins! This team is one of the deepest and most talented in MLB, short season be damned. Once again, it's all about focus. Some say it's no longer a marathon season but a sprint. Maybe. Or maybe 60 games is a mini marathon filled with question marks and injury and the best and deepest team will prevail. Focus on 40 games, and then take on all challengers. As Cruz said, "why not us?"

Agree with your list. Wondering due to age, injury and being a half season performer...no matter how good...is this Hill's swan song? Whatever luck, pull factors, etc, are involved, there is another level to Kepler's game if that BABIP can just rise up to normal levels. And Buxton just NEEDS to find a way to preserve his body, or find a rabbits foot that works, and just stay on the field. Even if he never achieves the Griffey and Mays kind of level projected for him, he is a stud and All Star caliber player as is as long as he is healthy. Were this a 162 game season I would have included Berrios. His second half issues are well known, though he rebounded late in 2019 to indicate growth and changes coming. And changes to his in-season routine were coming this year before the covid stop that I think would have paid big dividends. In a 60 game season, none of this should be a factor for 2020. But I would have included Sano on this list as a 4th. His 2019 was slowed initially due to his freakish injury in winter ball. He looked good, slumped, worked through it, and began to look like the hitter/ force we all thought he could be. I think he has really matured and is ready to step forward, though he may defer to Cruz and Donaldson in the lineup for a season or two. What I find so interesting about this team is something touched on in the last paragraph. The comment being no matter the success of the team in 2019 they still lacked that true top ML talent. (With the exception of Cruz, I would say). Of course, Donaldson on board raises that talent level. But it's easy to forget how young some of these guys really are, mostly because it just seems they've been around for so long. I don't have exact ages in front of me, but Sano, Arraez, Polanco, Kepler, Buxton and Berrios are all still around 27yo or younger. Just coming in to their prime. Despite fighting some injuries and various wild aspects to his game, Rosario has been highly productive and I believe won't turn 29 until late in the season. Garver is a late bloomer that doesn't have a ton of mileage on him. We could argue/debate Odorizzi, Rogers, May and Duffey all around 29-30yo, but especially for relievers, seems to me these guys are just entering their 3-5yr prime where stuff and experience will have them at the top of their game.

OK, here's the thing. Its really tough to predict what will happen over a 162 game season, much less a 60 game season. (Guessing Vegas is going nuts about now)! One thing to consider is, barring Covid, most teams are physically healthy right now, including the Twins. I have wondered at times about the short season and not playing top teams like the Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, etc. Does that make you less prepared for BIG BOY competition when the playoffs start? And then I not only remember how deep and good this roster is, but I also reflect how "easy" the Twins schedule is supposed to be. I'm sorry, but I just don't buy in to the Dirty Sox for 2020. Cleveland has enough talent to be scary. And even though the NL Central is supposed to be down/easy, and we play them far less than our own division, I find them to be a worry. When is the last time the Cardinals didn't field a competitive team? They always seem to have pitching and defense and enough offense to be dangerous. The Cubs have a lot of good talent on hand still. The Brewers were in the post season last year. The Reds are a mystery team, but could be dangerous if a few things break right. This is NOT some insurmountable gauntlet, to be sure. And on paper, the Twins should be the better team vs any Central team they play. But other than Cleveland, I'm more worried about the NLC than I am the ALC. Stumbling against the NLC could be disastrous. Not saying it will happen, only saying this "weak schedule" may not be as easy as some say. You still hàve to go out and play and win. But I keep thinking about the report of Cruz standing in front of his teammates and asking them to look around and asking, "why not us?"

In a short 60 game season, who knows what could happen. I would also take Hill over Keuchel at this point. I liked Cron and just wish he hadn't been hurt late in the season. But I will take Donaldson and Sano all day! Maybin would have been smart and nice. Never quite understood the Twins not making a move there. Or did they? Maybe they did and he just wanted a starting job? Or did the Twins just like what they had? I actually like Cave, but I would have gladly traded him for a season of Maybin were he interested. No reason to sign Smoak after Donaldson.