DocBauer

My initial response was this should be easy as we're only talking 2020. And then I read. Ugh. Appreciate your thoughts but can't agree. I LOVE the potential of Chalmers and am happy the Twins included him. His position and value are TBD. But if they have to turn to him in 2020, then something has gone very right or very wrong. Alcala and Poppen and others are ranked deservedly higher. But these guy should CLEARLY be numbered in the 30's. Unless something dramatic happens, Lewis shouldn't see MLB this year. Thorpe and Dobnak could easily make the 30 man roster initially and have solid careers. Thorpe's stuff screams ML starter, or at worst, quality BP arm. His milb career and peripherals in 2019 say the same. Dobnak's problem, IMPO, is he is simply undervalued due to his story and lack of previous prospect standing. While I put Smeltzer behind these two for what should be obvious reasons, so far, he has done nothing but impress and look "solid". I'm thinking a nice career as a long/middle man and spot starter. I appreciate Wiel for all he has done. And he could surprise. But I see him as a "break glass" for 2020 and would have him lower. It's a tough exercise. But I think there are pitchers too low and some position players too high.

Let us continue to remember how good Berrios has been, how much he has flashed, and remember he only turned 26yo in May. Not sure you could ask for better stuff, better determination or work ethic. But it is that work ethic I and others have commented on. Berrios and the Twins have all commented that he needed to learn to dial things down a bit in his regiment to simply maintain endurance for a full season. That began in 2019 when he again slipped in the 2nd half only to rally and pitch better than he bad before. And there was talk all during the off season and during the initial ST he would dial back his routine the 2nd half to maintain endurance. (Immense workouts don't always mean endurance for a full ML season). I was, originally, looking forward to the still only 26yo Berrios to adjust his routine, grow as a "pitcher" with experience and very probably have his best season to date. But right now, with a 60 game season, this whole idea sort of gets thrown out the window for 2020. He is right at the precipice where talent meets knowledge to become his best, I've spoken of this before. He might even be a year or so early. I think Oddo hit the spot last season. Maeda is probably already there, based on previous results and the best year against LH hitters. Hill is beyond that point but not yet "hanging on" based on 2019. He appears to have one more season in the sun on his side. Trust me, Berrios will lead this team in 2020 and beyond with Oddo right behind...who WILL re-sign IMO...with Maeda and a group of talented arms to round things out going forward. Berrios needs to be re-signed long term. Even with the weird economics of baseball right now and future speculation, you have to keep what you have at some point. And not all great pitchers are 6' 2" and 215lbs plus.

Nice post! And I really want to speak about the Rosario portion of your comment. While he has always been a bit of an enigma and may always be, he is very talented and has been very productive, especially when healthy. While I don't recall a "serious" injury at the ML level thus far...one that would rob him of serious time...he has battled a shoulder issue in 2018 and the knee in 2019. There have been posts about age 27 being when a player begins to hit his peak. Still only 28yo until late September of this year, I think Rosario could argue he has mostly hit his peak years when healthy. Recent comments by him state he recognizes his need to be more disciplined in his approach and just lay off certain locations. (Though we all know Eddie has also delivered and crushed balls at times that he just shouldn't have been able to). Now, is this lip service or real maturation as a ballplayer? Only time will tell. We have all concluded, myself as well, that 2021 will be Rosario's last as a Twin simply due to economics and the talent behind him. And that may turn out to be true. But only 28, if healthy, what can he do the next 5-6yrs for us or someone else? Despite the economics of baseball right now, I'd expect Rosario back in 2021 at this point. No matter how well the Twins manage development of Kirilloff, Larnach and Rooker without an actual milb season, don't you still bring back Rosario in 2021 for what will still be a pretty manageable contract? And couldn't any trade value only increase with a healthy 2020, short season or not? I'm a fan! But somebody has to move eventually, whether it be Rosario or a prospect. But IMO, just like Buxton and Kepler, we haven't seen the very best of a still maturing Rosario yet.

Nick, really appreciate your efforts, even though I, of course, didn't like the final outcome. Lol FWIW, I actually thought the system was pretty true to final statistics. I have to say, hitting/production wise, I think Arraez was a little high and Kepler a little low. I also think the game penalized Buxton for time missed in the past vs his production when healthy. Buck's numbers just don't equate with me. Pitching wise I really have only tiny quibbles that aren't worth mentioning, only to say a real season might have produced slightly better numbers here or there. But the game seemed to have a real built in prejudice against Hill. I assume that can only be related to coming off his surgery and whatever projection algorithm they used. If early reports are correct, and based on history, the game blew it's read on Hill. It was a lot of fun and I thank you for all your work.

Not going to apologize to anyone when the Twins have a great season and win around 40 games. You play the games presented to you and you go out and win them! I fully appreciate how the Twins path is supposedly easier not facing the East or the West. I get it. But every season is fresh and has all its own unique surprises between health, development and career years. Cleveland is still good and shouldn't be taken lightly. I know this sounds crazy, but the Royals scare me more than the Dirty Sox because they always seem to play the Twins so tough. We could dominate Chicago and yet have a losing record to KC because...well...baseball. (shrug) With very few exceptions, the Cardinals are never bad. The Brewers were a playoff team in 2019. The Cubs still have the ability to run away with the NLC if they can figure out their pen and replace Quintana to some acceptable degree. (I had forgotten about his injury). I had dismissed the Reds early on this year when conversations started because it just felt to me they were treading water. I guess I didn't give them enough credit because after reading this. They have the potential be dangerous. Paraphrasing Cruz in a pre-workout speech he gave: "look around at the talent here and ask yourselves, why not us?" And I agree 100%. This team is even deeper and more talented than the 2019 version. I think any sort of "cake walk" to a division championship is misguided, especially in a short season where anything can happen. But if Rocco and the leadership on this team keep their focus, why on earth shouldn't 40 wins be the goal? It could be argued, and I mentioned it briefly in a different OP, that not playing certain other top teams over the course of this abbreviated season could be considered a negative when it comes playoff time. In sports, don't you tend to get better playing against the best? Or is that too much hyperbole, especially in a short season? After all, those other teams don't have to play the Twins! This team is one of the deepest and most talented in MLB, short season be damned. Once again, it's all about focus. Some say it's no longer a marathon season but a sprint. Maybe. Or maybe 60 games is a mini marathon filled with question marks and injury and the best and deepest team will prevail. Focus on 40 games, and then take on all challengers. As Cruz said, "why not us?"

Agree with your list. Wondering due to age, injury and being a half season performer...no matter how good...is this Hill's swan song? Whatever luck, pull factors, etc, are involved, there is another level to Kepler's game if that BABIP can just rise up to normal levels. And Buxton just NEEDS to find a way to preserve his body, or find a rabbits foot that works, and just stay on the field. Even if he never achieves the Griffey and Mays kind of level projected for him, he is a stud and All Star caliber player as is as long as he is healthy. Were this a 162 game season I would have included Berrios. His second half issues are well known, though he rebounded late in 2019 to indicate growth and changes coming. And changes to his in-season routine were coming this year before the covid stop that I think would have paid big dividends. In a 60 game season, none of this should be a factor for 2020. But I would have included Sano on this list as a 4th. His 2019 was slowed initially due to his freakish injury in winter ball. He looked good, slumped, worked through it, and began to look like the hitter/ force we all thought he could be. I think he has really matured and is ready to step forward, though he may defer to Cruz and Donaldson in the lineup for a season or two. What I find so interesting about this team is something touched on in the last paragraph. The comment being no matter the success of the team in 2019 they still lacked that true top ML talent. (With the exception of Cruz, I would say). Of course, Donaldson on board raises that talent level. But it's easy to forget how young some of these guys really are, mostly because it just seems they've been around for so long. I don't have exact ages in front of me, but Sano, Arraez, Polanco, Kepler, Buxton and Berrios are all still around 27yo or younger. Just coming in to their prime. Despite fighting some injuries and various wild aspects to his game, Rosario has been highly productive and I believe won't turn 29 until late in the season. Garver is a late bloomer that doesn't have a ton of mileage on him. We could argue/debate Odorizzi, Rogers, May and Duffey all around 29-30yo, but especially for relievers, seems to me these guys are just entering their 3-5yr prime where stuff and experience will have them at the top of their game.

OK, here's the thing. Its really tough to predict what will happen over a 162 game season, much less a 60 game season. (Guessing Vegas is going nuts about now)! One thing to consider is, barring Covid, most teams are physically healthy right now, including the Twins. I have wondered at times about the short season and not playing top teams like the Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, etc. Does that make you less prepared for BIG BOY competition when the playoffs start? And then I not only remember how deep and good this roster is, but I also reflect how "easy" the Twins schedule is supposed to be. I'm sorry, but I just don't buy in to the Dirty Sox for 2020. Cleveland has enough talent to be scary. And even though the NL Central is supposed to be down/easy, and we play them far less than our own division, I find them to be a worry. When is the last time the Cardinals didn't field a competitive team? They always seem to have pitching and defense and enough offense to be dangerous. The Cubs have a lot of good talent on hand still. The Brewers were in the post season last year. The Reds are a mystery team, but could be dangerous if a few things break right. This is NOT some insurmountable gauntlet, to be sure. And on paper, the Twins should be the better team vs any Central team they play. But other than Cleveland, I'm more worried about the NLC than I am the ALC. Stumbling against the NLC could be disastrous. Not saying it will happen, only saying this "weak schedule" may not be as easy as some say. You still hàve to go out and play and win. But I keep thinking about the report of Cruz standing in front of his teammates and asking them to look around and asking, "why not us?"

In a short 60 game season, who knows what could happen. I would also take Hill over Keuchel at this point. I liked Cron and just wish he hadn't been hurt late in the season. But I will take Donaldson and Sano all day! Maybin would have been smart and nice. Never quite understood the Twins not making a move there. Or did they? Maybe they did and he just wanted a starting job? Or did the Twins just like what they had? I actually like Cave, but I would have gladly traded him for a season of Maybin were he interested. No reason to sign Smoak after Donaldson.

I've touched on this before, but will again. The FO has put together a 60 man group...OK, 59...that is AA and above to go all in for depth with prospects available that could conceivably produce, or at least not be embarrassed, if called upon. So A ball and lower are left out. Makes perfect sense to me. But the initial omission of Balazovic is a mystery, and could be related to visa, injury, illness, or some sort of "wait" scenario. He is every bit the prospect Duran is, though younger and no AA experience. But had 2020 been normal, he surely would have been at Pensacola for this year, with honest expectations of reaching Rochester at some point. Expectation and hope would have him making AT LEAST an appearance at the ML level in 2021. So the forwarding thinking, new age and aggressive FO is going to let one of their top 5 prospects sit for a year? I don't buy it. I have no clue if Balazovic is hurt or sick or anything else. But I'm betting when the smoke clears, and ST 2.0 is done, he comes on board at some point for instruction and development as part of the 60 man roster.

40 games started behind the plate. That's 66% of games caught. That equates to 107 games in a 162 game season. That shouldn't be an issue, even in a "sprint" season. He can be pulled the final couple ofinnjngs for any game out of hand. (Either way, but hopefully a Twins blowout). Even with a limited number of days off, Rocco is smart enough to put Avila in for a last game before a day off to give Garver 2 days off to re-fresh. And in a 4 game series? Most of the time you'd expect at least 1 LHSP to make an appearance to let Avila make the start.

He reminds me so much of two great Minnesota athletes a generation ago. (And sorry that I've stated this before). He reminds me of Robert Smith of the Vikings and Torri Hunter. Smith learned from Tony Dorsett that you have to preserve your body for a full season because your team needs you for that full season. And sometimes fighting for that extra yard just isn't worth what you give up later if you aren't out on the field. His career took off after that, co-incidence or not. Hunter learned to conserve his body after a few early injuries early on in his career as well. I may be wrong but after harping for some time now that I wished Hunter would work with Buxton to offer perspective and tutelage, I believe he did so at some point late last year, this last off-season or during ST 1.0. Buxton can be outstanding while still pulling up here and there. I know he loves being great defensively. But he can still be great 8 or 9 out of 10 plays by NOT risking himself physically. And I would gladly have him NOT make 4-5-6 outstanding plays over the course of a season to keep him on the field and in the lineup on a mostly daily basis. Offensively and defensively, a healthy and productive Buxton would more than make up for those handful of plays he "could have made" if he had risked injury.

I'm not so sure this isn't one of the most impressive thing I've heard about Johnson. He does "nothing" but remind a talented pitcher who and what he is and what he can do. Reminds me a bit of Viola back in the day when he was finally convinced how talented he was and that he was a power pitcher with good stuff and didn't have to be a nibbling LH. This is awesome.

Agreed! We often hear about head coaches and managers being "players coaches." But I think sometimes that description CAN mean a negative. While their level of success varies, all coaches and managers were players at some point. The "negative" perspective of being a "players coach" is you are soft, or coddle players too much. Or, in some cases, you cater to the STAR players. But the positive side of such a coach/manager is he just GETS IT. Rocco was a top prospect, and for a short time, he was an elite player. While I'm sure he has always been a hard worker and smart guy, he then went out and re-invented himself as a coach and now manager. He can embrace analytics while also having the experience to relate to his players, having been one, and a good one, not that long ago. He seems to demand the right stuff from his players. He also understands...as part of the new direction of the FO and system...that players are individuals and not cookie cutter plug and play pieces. Yes, he had the basis of a great team and roster for his rookie season. But he and his staff did a great job of maximizing and utililizing the talent on hand. Despite a questionable bullpen early in 2019, he made the best of it. When thjngs changed, he and his staff continued to get the best out of who arrived. Injuries happened, but depth and smart usage still maximized. We shouldn't discount the FO, who appears to work in harmony with Rocco and his staff and for the moves they made. It's one thing to have talent, to bring in talent, and another thing to make it work together. And then we read and learn more and more about our skipper from articles like this and I become even more impressed. Just like a player, how much better can he and his staff be once they gain even more experience and really figure stuff out?

We could argue yet again about financial agreements vs reported language that provided a provision to re-open discussion once more data became evident. Example: fans, no fans, length of season, etc. But the discussion is Manfred himself. As stated, he was hired due to past experience as a labor negotiator. Right now, he looks far less competent, IMO, than Selig. I dont know if he's incompetent, in over his head, or just a puppet of the owners. But I'm not impressed. To be fair, I'm not impressed with the union leadership either. Since a commissioner will always be hired by the owners, and generally work at the behest of the owners, I'm not sure where you turn. For the good of baseball, I wish the owners would bring in an intelligent, savvy individual with some clout and ego who actually loves baseball. Someone who would work for them but have the fortitude to stand up to them and just openly state: "Do you want baseball? Do you want your sport to have semblance of harmony and grow? Then listen to me!" I don't know if they would do that. But it sure would be healthy and productive if they would.

Let me begin by stating I love ALMOST everything about this lineup. I will also state that it's about impossible to put together a bad lineup with this team! As DannySD stated, 3 guys alone who could hit leadoff. A couple comments about this proposed lineup: A] Polanco sliding down to #5 is very interesting as he provides another table setting option while still producing RBI. B] A little torn on swapping Garver and Rosario between the 7 and 8 spots. Garver is probably the better hitter with equal power, though he won't play daily, giving away to Avila here and there which supposes an obvious swap. But I wonder if the better pure hitter and better contact of Garver at 8 between Rosario and Buxton doesn't make better sense? My proposed ideal lineup with notes: 1] Arraez 2] Polanco *I want these two, very tough outs and high contact who wear out pitchers are amongst the toughest hitters in the league, to set the table while still being productive themselves. 3] Cruz 4] Donaldson *Donaldson has been very productive in the 2 spot, he's also been very productive in the 3 and 4 spots as well. He and Cruz have TONS of RBI opportunity in these spots. 5] Kepler *I LOVE Rosario and am a fan. His RBI conversion percentage in 2019 was excellent, despite fighting injury the 2nd half of the season. I believe a portion of his overly aggressive nature was being in the 4 spot and told to make hard contact and make things happen and not worry too much about BB and the such. My opinion. But Kepler has just as much power and production capability and is the more disciplined hitter. 6] Sano. *Production wise, he may be as good or better than Cruz or Donaldson. But somebody has to slide down to balanice and stagger the lineup. The more experienced Cruz and Donaldson get the higher spots. 7] Rosario 8] Garver *As stated above, I can easily swap these 2 as Garver has the more compact swing and better eye with just as much power. But I am sandwiching in his better approach between Rosario and Buxton. 9] Buxton *Ultra talented and extremely dangerous if he ONLY duplicates what he did in 2019 and doesn't improve. He and Garver turn the lineup over and provide ample opportunity for Arraez and Polanco. Just my opinion for the most balanced #1 lineup choice.

Just my own personal opinion, FWIW. Management has basically brought back everyone from ST 1.0 for an extra look-see. Makes sense. And while there is tons of depth here and options available, I could see a cut or two and then an addition or two. My understanding is additions can still be made after a cut. Gearrin just doesn't interest me other than an emergency RP with some ML experience. But, I will give that he and a few other guys are here, even without a milb season to help Rochester, simply due to additional depth due to injury or illness outbreak. I think we all know this. Thielbar is the same. Including Chacin, there are 5 AAAA arms brought in for depth and to see if they could help. I would not be surprised to see a couple let get for other additions. Let us not forget the overall depth of the current 40 man in this discussion. Clay is interesting. He was a high draft choice from the previous FO who performed so-so. He was converted to reliever status when the new FO took over. He has still been so-so, but has shown a bit more life as a RP. They obviously see something worth investigating. 27yo? Who cares if he embraces and fits that role in a quality manner for 4-6yrs. Then again, he could be gone a year from now. But he's an interesting inclusion. I am so happy Colina was included! I get he's under 6'. But not every quality pitcher is 6' 3"+ and 220lbs with long arms and legs. Can you bring it? Can you pitch? This guy might not be tall, but he's built and he can bring it. He has produced at every level. Other than K per 9, which surprises me considering stuff, his milb numbers are good to great. The fantasy part of me wants the Twins to work with him and find SOME sort of change that works for him. Much like Chalmers, if they do, they have a legitimate rotation arm to work with. If they only partially succeed, they have another power arm to develop over the next season or so to add to a great bullpen.

Nick...jaded, pessimistic Minnesota fandom creeping in or what? Sheesh! And I thought I was bad! (Though my greatest angst is with the Vikings and remains so). I'm voting status quo for now as I just really see no reason to change what brought you this far. However, I haven't taken time to look up previous results for Oddo or "handedness" of the Rays lineup. Perhaps that would make Wood a better choice in a potential game 4? Regardless, with our lineup and bullpen, and a piggyback ootion like Oddo or Wood, I stick with what works and don't pitch anyone on short rest. You have to win today to play tomorrow when then playoffs come around...but...you can't be short-sighted. You want a strong and rested Berrios for the 2nd round unless the train comes off the rails.

And the point I've been making despite being deservedly bashed some on my rough, napkin scribbling math.

All the more reason we have to hope there will be some sort of fall league or the Twins...being so forward thinking these days...will find a way to adapt and lengthen and deepen the competition for some sort of EST after the season.

Agree fully on Cavaco and Javier. Both so young and full of promise and need a chance to play, and stay healthy in Javier's case. Good calls on Wells and Badoo coming back from injury as well as Leach. Top prospects/draft choices and one well regarded pitching prospect that all lose a crucial year. Balazovic makes no sense to me. In a normal year, he's probably in Rochester by the end of the year and knocking on the ML door early 2021 at the latest. So because it's not a normal year they would just give up a year to their top pitching prospect? I don't buy it. There's still a spot left. If I understand things, guys can still be cut/waived and replaced. Don't know why he hasn't been added yet but can only speculate he's being told to stand by until a cut comes, or perhaps he's ill and the Twins are keeping it under wraps and waiting for him to recover.

5' 10" and around 170lbs. Athletic and supposedly fast. Plays SS and CF. Positive numbers in some tournaments, but such a SSS that they mean little. Found an opinion article a year old or so that spoke of his athleticism and that college recruiters might take notice. And that is pretty much all I could find on him. Not saying he couldn't turn out, but appears to be a young athlete with limited exposure who is an inexpensive flier. Unfortunately, also appears to be a year away from any sort of Rookie ball to look at.

Find myself suddenly wondering if the Saints or any other of these teams would "scrimmage" the Twins reserve roster while preparing for their seasons? Further, some of the teams in that league won't be playing. Hmmm...could they be hired as a scrimmage team, extra bodies to help around the facility and earn a paycheck at least? Just trying to think outside the box. FWIW, I believe it is the Nashville franchise that is taking the lead with others to create their own quasi independent/milb season. If successful, I wonder at milb players from other organizations being allowed to sign on. Of course, there could be pay and injury clauses that may prevent them from doing so.

Like your post but not sure if I want to agree or disagree. Love and believe in Kirilloff. I think he's going to be very, very good. Would love to see him make a mark. But if he does in this short season, means someone got hurt or sick, and I'm hoping we can avoid either of those. So I am going to politely agree and disagree with your projection.

Over on Twins wins. Minimum 35, but I'm banking on 38 and the target should be 40. I would seriously have a target board of some sort in the locker room for fun and motivation ala Major League. I don't know if that's TC Bear in a bikini or the WS trophy, but have fun with it. Under on Arraez AB. It may be a sprint, but Rocco will rest and rotate still. Barely under. I'm taking the over on Rogers but his IP won't match the same pace as last year. Won't have to with a deep pen. Not touching the Rosario debate, even though I think Rocco really likes him in the 4 hole. And while opinions vary, he produced there in 2019. In fact, he had a very high RBI conversion rate even with a lesser second half. But honestly, can you build a poor lineup with this roster? A strong arguement can be made for Kepler and Polanco remaining at the top. But it's also very easy to argue Arraez filling one of those spots and dropping someone down. Does Donalson really hit 2nd? Or is he better with more runners on base? Yet, the bottom of the lineup should offer opportunity as well. Do you really want Donaldson, Cruz and Sano all in a row? Why not have Rosario breaking that group up? Or Kepler if he slides down and offering better contact than Rosario? You see the quandary here. Guys like Garver and Rosario/Kepler could be hitting 7th and 8th and that is no insult, just a reflection of how deep the lineup is and what combination Rocco feels best with. Personally, I've always liked the "stacking" approach where I have 2 guys at the top who can hit, get OB, provide a spark with pop/power and speed would be nice. Two guys who just set the table and wear out the pitcher. Kinda sounds like Arraez and Polanco doesn't it? And then you stagger Cruz, Donaldson, Sano, Rosario, Kepler and Garver before Buxton in the 9 spot. A nightmare lineup for pitchers!