DocBauer

Guys in the high 80's who mix it up and change speeds and hit their spots can start. I think he's a #5. I also think he's behind a couple guys right now and is best as a middle/swing guy.

I thought all along Odorizzi would be back. I'm surprised he's not. Why he's not is moot at this point. For this ONE YEAR that is 2021, reflective of Happ's age, I believe any 2 of 3 of Pineda, Happ and Oddo are the same quality of pitcher. So I'm good with 3-4 and love our top 2. Shoemaker was a smart sign. He could be about the best #5 SP in the league if healthy enough for 22/23 starts. If I could be guaranteed he'd be available for 14 and just be his normal career self, I'd still be happy. Because by the end of the season you don't only have Donnak and Thorpe, but you've got at least a couple more arms that are probably ready to make their debuts.

If I'm not mistaken Waddell allowed all of his runs in his first appearance and has struck out just about everyone since. Of course, the guys he's been facing are AAA at the end of the game mostly, but could be a nice depth piece at some point.

#1] The jury is still out on Dobnak as it should be for any young pitcher. After only 75IP at the ML level you still don't know what you have, whether he's a top prospect or a great story and surprise. BUT, in his milb career and those 75 IP Dobnak has performed and looked good thus far. (There are ALWAYS highs and lows for ANY pitcher, young or veteran). I have listened to and watched Dobnak pitch almost every game since his debut. He seems to have control, an idea how to pitch the mythical "bulldog" mentality you want, and doesn't seem to beat himself. I've been generally impressed from what I have seen from a YOUNG pitcher still feeling his way and learning. What has been frustrating is his inability to just make that ONE PITCH to get a guy out who battles him hard. And I'm not talking about necessarily striking someone out. He seems to often cruise and then spend too much time in a battle that limits his potential to extend himself in a game. It's always felt to me he was just lacking that little something, that one offering, that could provide a K or an earlier out to just be done and move on. (He stated that same thing in an interview after his performance today). He doesn't have to suddenly find some crazy new velocity mark or amazing SO per 9. All he's needed is just another pitch on a consistent basis he could rely on. It may only be ST, but the early returns are exciting. But no, there is no controversy regarding Shoemaker's spot. Barring injury or some continued ineptitude...remember Shoemaker looked good previously...a talented, experienced and healthy Shoemaker is a quality SP. He has his spot. Dobnak is clearly the 6th man at this point and ready and able. Opportunity will present itself. Funny how close we are to the Twins in our view/perspective of things and our opinion. Perhaps skewed too much to the past? This rotation is the best we've had in YEARS. And to have someone like Dobnak looking good and showing improvement and a former top prospect like Thorpe doing the same...WOW. #2] I feel sorry for Garlik. He's done everything he can do to make an impression, if not the roster. But no way you keep him over Rooker. But there will be opportunity at some point.

Let me state that while it remains to be seen if May can find the consistency needed to go from good to great, I wanted him back. Frankly, I was a little surprised by what he got. Getting outs is what's most important, and there are a lot of ways to get them. But every once in a while it sure makes you feel good to have a high velocity, high K to put on the mound. And until Alcala, or someone else, becomes that arm, it's the ONE part of the pen that gives me pause. I'm in the camp of trusting Rogers, Colome and Duffey. I've said before and say again that Robles could be a key. While the nature of RP is volatile, I look at his career body of work and I can't help but dismiss his awful as an aberration. If he is his normal career self, I feel confident in our back 4 with some nice middle pieces in Thielbar, Stashak and the potential of Alcala. So I'm with Ted on that. Where I'm going to disagree, however, is the depth issue. Very few teams draft and develop and nurture a bullpen fireman through their milb system. Absolutely bullpen arms are developed and reach MLB and do well. But unlike years/decades ago, bullpen arms are no longer regarded as "failed" starters. A pitcher is not a "failure" because he couldn't be a rotation fixture and instead becomes a valuable and reliable RP. Wisler was a tremendous find last year and thought the Twins should have brought him back. I get they had mild concerns about arbitration numbers based on a season he couldn't hope to duplicate again and wanting to have more "option" flexibility with the front half of their pen. I still think they should have brought him back. But who was he this time last year? How highly regarded was Stashak 2yrs ago? Or Thielbar last year? I'm not degrading anyone or wanting to sound condescending in any way, but the Twins are neck deep right now in Wisler-type to work with and develop and promote as needed. I am also not going to blow smoke up anyone's backside, to use a favorite old euphemism, that they have a collection of prized, surprise studs at the ready. And I'm also not going to get too high or too low on ST numbers and their SSS. But just look at the list of possibilities for depth at St Paul: Anderson, Coulombe, Farrell, Hamilton, Law, Minaya, Sparkman and Waddell. Most of these guys have at least appeared in the ML meaning they aren't just wide-eyed rookies. Now, also think about Colina and Chalmers...who I still very hope will find a 3rd pitch and maintain the control he suddenly found the last half of 2019 and stay in the rotation...along with other prospect arms who could be knocking on the AAA door if not kicking it down. And we're not even talking about top SP prospects helping out in the pen before hopefully settling in to a rotation spot. Sorry. I'm not buying a depth issue, especially with what this staff has done the past few years. My only concern is Rogers, Colome, Duffey and Robles just being themselves. Give me that and I'm very happy. Tell me Alcala is going to continue to harness his stuff and improve and I'm almost ecstatic. But depth is not my worry.

Regarding payroll, I've also read different $ numbers at different sites. And I could be wrong, but I think FanGraphs at $129M is the most accurate and seems to track the various running totals presented here on TD. With incentives, primarily Maeda, the projected final number is around $134M. Depending on where you look, the adjusted 2020 payroll was around $138-140M. So they are very close to the projected numbers of last year. In regard to Robertson, he was on my 2nd tier of want and "why not" list. He's had a fine career and I have been very surprised someone hasn't given him a look-see at this point. You would think he'd be worth a couple $M with some incentives. I can only assume that there simply wasn't enough known about his recovery, early enough, for anyone to make a move when the FA glacier finally nudged forward. I would have no problem with the Twins taking a closer look. He could be a steal. But at this point, aren't we talking about a milb deal with incentives and an opt out? I would do that though, in a heartbeat.

Does it get much better than Cruz as your DH? He has defied Father Time so well that I just believe he has at least one more high quality season in him. But as Nick states, he could "come down to earth" this season, see his OPS drop a 100 points and STILL be a dangerous, productive hitter. There is also a TON of depth to handle the spot when necessary and looking further down the road as well. Kind of amazing that he did very little at the ML level until he was 28yo. While i wouldn't dare to compare them, it sort of gives perspective on someone like Rooker who is only 26yo but has a potentially fine bat and has made steady progress every season after being signed out of college. And yet some question his potential because he may be too old.

100% agree with this and have been arguing for it even without all the data points presented. Arrraez and Polanco are my choices to bat #1 for all the reasons we already know and have discussed. I've struggled with the 5 spot being Sano or Garver with the other probably hitting 7th whenever Kirilloff takes over LF for good. Some good debate about how to stack Buxton and Simmons. And yes, the lineups will always be fluid so everyone rests and plays and Arraez won't be in the lineup every day. But the basic stacking of the lineup just seems so obvious to me.

Maybe I've just always been a fan of Kepler due to his story and his athleticism. IMO, he started behind similar young players when he was initially signed. He played in Germany and didn't have the same level of opposition or camps or touring teams, etc, that his counterparts had as HS'ers in the US. And here I go with, "that being said", he's been in the league long enough now that it's time to see him hit his ceiling and harness all that athleticism on a more consistent basis. Now, I think he did that in 2019. I'm willing to throw out 2020 for Kepler the same as I am for a number of guys. And I think that's fair to do as we all know how strange last year was for everyone in so many different ways. I have no negative issues going in to this year, and a lot of belief, UNLESS we see a repeat of 2020. Numbers I've seen somewhere recently showed he had some really good numbers leading off a game. That can be a great way to jump start your team. And I'm sure Rocco has all the data points that makes him believe Kepler is a good choice as the #1 batter. But I really think he's more valuable hitting lower in the 3-4-5 spots mixed in with Donaldson and Cruz and ahead of Sano for sure. And there were some very interesting numbers about Kepler on the ST Live podcast Tuesday concerning his being better than average when it comes to SO and moving runners along, etc. Ax far as the future goes and depth, I find myself wondering about room for Max along with Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker and Sano come 2022 and beyond. Not saying a trade couldn't happen, but 5 guys and 4 spots, is there room for everyone? There could be. I think it's something to contemplate.

I'm not sure why, but the extra option is up before an arbitrator. I've heard the final decision is supposed to come down this week. Not sure how anyone could rule against Thorpe and the Twins and not grant the extra option.

Dobnak is not only a great story, but his milb numbers and 70+ IP at the ML level should provide optimism. His biggest problem, as Dman pointed out, and something I've pointed out previously, is too many "battles" with hitters. He seems to have everything to be a solid 4-5-6 pitcher and have a successful to very successful career. What's missing is eliminating those 6-8 AB outs. A better defense behind him helps as he is a ground out pitcher. But once in a while you need that SO or a couple more wezl pop ups. What's crazy is this recent adjustment is only weeks old. Johnson magic? Maybe. But Dobber is pretty heady, if you haven't figured that out already. And he's ready for whatever. He may or may not be a fixture in the rotation as a 3-5 SP option. I am crazy excited about the future of Duran, Balazovic and Canterino, amongst others. And I am SUPER excited about Thorpe if he gets the 4th option year because he can spend a full year between teams finally getting his stuff together. But from what we have already seen from Dobber in 77IP, imagine how good he could be with a better slider to go along with his sinker and control?

Happ making his debut is the most important thing. Really good chance be gets 3 more starts and can also be the 5th starter to open the season to continue his ramp up. Thielbar ready to pitch is great. Takes far less for him to get ready as a RP. Garlik is on the 40 man and has done all he can. But he absolutely has to be behind the younger Rooker if there is a spot on the initial roster.

The moves the FO has made for Kepler, Polanco and Sano thus far are smart and beneficial for both parties. Reminds me much of when Cleveland seemed ahead of the game years ago to keep their core together. I don't think that is any coincidence considering our current FO. And while the $ will almost certainly be different for Buxton and Berrios...especially Berrios...I see them working the same platform. I love Arraez. He's still young enough I can still see some more POP coming in to his game, even if double digit HR totals are not a norm. What's wrong with 30+ doubles ever year with his hit and OB Numbers? Despite him being so young in his career, I don't think the Carew and Gwynn comps are so abstract. I also feel his defense is better than advertised. I don't watch every game available, but I watch a lot. Especially the last 2 years. Arraez was tossed in to LF and basically told to touch the wall and then take a certain number of steps in. Let's just say he was "credible". He was asked to play 3B and a few innings at SS and was again, "credible". In case you misunderstood, "credible" means you didn't absolutely stink or embarrass yourself. And there's something to be said for that, even at the highest level. We often become jaded about euphemisms like someone being a "ballplayer". But who and when was that decided as being a bad thing? Because somewhere along the line that term became regulated to nothing more than a scrappy utility type? When and how and why? Tell me Trout isn't a "ballplayer". Tell me Ballinger isn't a "ballplayer". Arraez is a "ballplayer" meaning he can not only hit, but he has good instincts on how to play the game. It means you can give him a glove and toss him out in the field and just say: "do the best you can". And he's done that thus far in his career. Hell, he played with a bad knee most of 2020 and hit well but everyone questions his defense and versatility. Except, he was at least OK wherever they tossed him out in 2019, unfair as it may have been. Kid IS a "ballplayer". All of this hyperbole, and the logic of the OP, there are other extensions more immediate than Arraez. There is enough control to warrant a wait until next year.

The truth is Buxton has never been and never will bet he high AVG/OB speed guy we originally envisioned him being. So what?! I know it's a completely unfair comparison, but that's what Puckett was supposed to be and was initially before his power emerged. Again, unfair comp, but there is a parallel there to consider. Buxton has been emerging as a real XB power threat who legs stuff out and can still steal a base while providing special defense. Doesn't mean he doesn't have room to improve aspects of hitting, contact, OB, etc. But we've seen what he is capable of the last couple of years. Unfortunately, the injury history is the very large elephant in the room. And right now, I can't give you a single example from memory of a player or pitcher that dealt with a number of early injuries before suddenly getting healthy except maybe Hunter. But I know they are out there. (I've sometimes referenced Robert Smith from the Vikings, but different sport entirely). In fairness to Buck, without being dismissive, some of his injuries have been "fluke-ish" in nature. And no way a FB to the helmet at the end of 2020 was on him. To the Twins credit, they have worked hard with him on everything from positioning to jumping for balls to helping him realize that sometimes running in to a wall at 26mph or laying out for an incredible catch may not be best for him or the team in the short as well as long term. To Byron's credit, he seems to be listening and learning. Also to his credit, he's been working hard the last couple of years to build muscle and strength for his body. The simple fact is, athlete or not, bodies grow and mature differently. He was a long, lithe speed demon initially but may have still been growing in to his frame in his early 20's. While losing little to no speed, he's really filled out his frame the past couple of years. Still only 27yo and already a difference maker when on the field, is he just ready to start reaching his prime both performance wise and physically? Maybe I'm just hopeful, but I think I'd take that bet. I am fine with Kepler as a fill-in at CF here and there. He'd probably start there for some teams. He's not great, but he's good. While his offense has thus far been "streaky", unfortunately, I was impressed with Cave defensively last year. He seemed to be much more sure of himself and his reads and quit trying to make amazing plays that would have him diving for balls out of his reach. I've gone from hopeful on Celestino to a believer. Whether a 4th OF or future replacement for Buxton, I think he's going to make it. And there are a few others behind him that have a real shot and provide depth in the system for sure. Still hopeful that the Tigers aren't going to find a way to keep Badoo and he will be returned. I'm in favor of an extension for Buck, even though there is risk involved. Much like Berrios, same age but different endurance situation, I feel Buxton may just be hitting the time and place where he's ready to take the next step. And I'd hate to risk being late to that dance.

Agree with part of your post, Dan. I was hopeful on Celestino but I'm starting to think highly of him. Going to disagree on Cave though as I saw a lot of improvement in his CF defense last season. He just looked more sure of himself and I didn't see the odd plays where he tried too hard and dove at balls that were 5 foot out of his range. Garlic is on the 40 man, has a nice milb track record, some ML experience, and has done about all you can do thus far in ST. But he's still got to be behind Rooker doesn't he? And BTW, Rooker has had a nice ST so far following his quality appearance last year. Interesting conversation between Aaron and John on their last podcast regarding Kirilloff. They mentioned not only a few extra AB here and there, but his time spent at 1B. Would seem he's being viewed as a real piece of the roster. Though performance and initial roster construction are very fluid still. Assuming the Twins don't go with a 14 man staff, AND Kirilloff making the opening roster, there appears to be 1 spot left. That spot would seem to be Rooker, (ahead of Garlik IMO), and one of Astudillo-Lin-Riddle. Do they keep the young bat with promise? Or do they keep another versatile bench player? And does opening on the road for a series in the NL have any effect?

Look, I know ST numbers and results only mean so much and only tell a small portion of the early story...but.... Dobber pitched 3 and only gave up one hit and struck out SIX. (K's may be fascist, but keep it up Dobber). 0.0 ERA thus far. Apparently he wants to make the team in whatever capacity. Have to say, very impressed with every SP thus far. Clean IP by Alcala in the 4th, 2 groundouts and a fly out. Waddell struck out the side and "lowered" his ERA to 10.80. Lol. Not picking on the guy. He is one of many who could provide help at some time coming over from St Paul. Just nice to see a good day. Law got the win with a perfect 6th and struck out the side. No runs allowed thus far. I may be wrong but wasn't this only his 2nd appearance? One great year and then seemed to lose it. At 30yr old but a FB/slider option the Twins like, does he provide help at some point? Meh. I'm betting on Anderson, Hamilton and a few others before him. Albers? He was a great story for a few starts a few years ago. I doubt we have another Thielbar reclamation story here. Beyond a great performance from Dobnak, and the clean IP by Alcala, the story in a meaningless game is Astudillo. Yes, his game winning HR came in the 7th and means little overall. But he's hitting over .400 thus far and whether you like him or not, the staff does. While nothing special to be sure, he plays acceptable defense at multiple positions. How you view his defense...or offense for that matter...IMO, depends how much you have actually seen him play. I've seen him miss balls behind the plate, but also watched him catch shutouts and 1 run games for reference. NOT saying he's making the initial roster or he is a great player, just saying he's having a good ST thus far and is a pretty decent "hitter" with some pop as long as he's not up there flailing at the ridiculous outside stuff. And yes, I've seen that negative part of him as well.

I have real hope that Blankenhorn is going to be a valuable role player at several positions, hit decently, and bring some bench power. Just not convinced on the "hit" tool yet. Misael Urbina should maybe be on the list despite his youth. You want a dark horse candidate? Spencer Steer. His numbers improved across the board every year in college and he had a nice debut season.

Probably too close to Harmon, unless you allow some homage to be paid, but: Killer K

I'm a big Polanco fan. I believe he will adapt to 2B very well and that his offense will return with his ankle now, supposedly, fixed this time. But I would make this deal in a heartbeat. Which means it probably isn't viable. Matt, I fully appreciate your well thought out arguements as stated. Your points and proposal are well thought out and well argued. But they just aren't practical. The Reds could use Polanco at SS in their re-tool short term and then shift him as the Twins are doing. The collection of draft picks the Reds would have helps re-stock their system, but seems more like a re-build than a re-load, which is counter to most of your arguement. Assuming the Reds are even interested in trading Castillo, it would take Polanco, one of Duran-Balazovic-Canterino and then one of Kirilloff or Larnach. I know that if I were them that's what I'd be asking for. Could the Twins afford to do that without decimating their system and future? Absolutely. But it's a steep price to pay, and a bit risky, with Rosario gone, Cruz on what is probably his final year and 3 rotation pieces with expiring contracts. On my own personal soapbox, I'm just not concerned about some playoff jinx and poor run. Virtually every single player, manager, coach and FO personnel have nothing to with that streak except for a couple recent losses. And I couldn't give a ×#$! about the Yankees or anyone's perspective on them even from respected media. The Twins are a very good team that has been re-tooled top to bottom and inside out over the past few years. And over the next couple of seasons, we are going to see some re-tooling on the fly both in the lineup and the pitching staff. If the Reds would so this, great! Otherwise, I like what I see right now. Talk to me again mid-season if there are injuries, poor performance or surprise opportunity to add.

A wonderful perspective in to off the field lives of players and their families. And all three ladies were absolutely engaging and charming. Looks like you had a lot of fun with this Seth, and I found myself smiling often while listening. Positively one of the best Twins interviews that you have done! Thank you.

I'm interested in seeing part 2 in regard to the proposed trade scenario presented. Please understand I'm not opposed to the Twins trading for a high end pitcher or player. Nor do I mean to dismiss the talent of Castillo in any way. But forgetting for a moment whether the Reds even WANT to consider moving him, or any potential return they may receive back, I'm just trying to take a mile in the sky look at this idea. 1] Maeda is a very good pitcher who seems to have gotten better. Berrios is even more talented overall, hasn't hit a ceiling yet we all hope for, and is just approaching the ideal age of experience vs stuff. There are 3 other guys behind those 2 and some interesting depth and options to make this a potentially excellent rotation. Does 1 guy deliver the goods enough with that being said pitching every 5th day? 2] Is a trade for Castillo about a potential short series post season or making the post season? There is a difference. Making it is #1. After that, you never know what will happen. Think the Twins in '87 and the Rays last year. Also think the Dogers and years of futility making the playoffs only to lose. 3] Right now, before the season even begins, EVERY team is scribbles on paper. Even the FO running teams know this. The Twins are one of the best teams in all MLB right now, and have been the last 2yrs. Barring horrific seasons or cataclysmic injuries, they could almost stumble to 90 wins. They have built or re-built a system over the past 3yrs that is starting to produce some exciting young talent that is getting really close to contributing and maintaining an open window and "sustainability" if not improving on the product we've already seen. So, does one SP make THAT much of a difference in the scheme of things vs what is given up for him? Not saying yes or no. I'd love to have Castillo. I'm just asking?

Guess I'm a little later to this party than intended, but at the same time, haven't we already been her 2 or 3 or 4 times already? I WANT Kirilloff playing daily and mashing in LF/1B/RF on occasion, etc. I completely believe he is going to be a good to great hitter with solid OB numbers and probably crank somewhere around 60 XB every year. On a related note, I think Larnach is going to be the same and that Rooker can be a very nice ballplayer and have a good career as well, though he may lag behind defensively. I also think all 3 have a future, especially when we look at 2022 and beyond. From all reports he was impressive in St Paul last year and showed real growth despite not playing a normal season. And his first hit and sliding catch in the playoff loss to Houston was exciting. But we have to remember he's still never had a single game played at the AAA level and was in that playoff game because the Twins were short of bodies. YES, they believe in him enough to give him that opportunity, but he's not there if not for injury. And that doesn't take away anything from his ability or potential. Even with a season missed due to TJ surgery, had 2020 been a normal, full season, he very easily could have made his ML debut. But that's not the reality of what happened. Despite secondary sites, coaching, simulated games, etc, every single milb player lost a year of normal play and development. IMO, this FO and coaching staff are not looking to play service time games. They are looking to build the best roster they can with the idea of WINNING. If Kirilloff looks fine both offensively and defensively and appears ready, he probably opens with the club. But service time arguement be damned, there are real and logical and logistical reasons for him not to. There is a real arguement to be made that him getting a little more time to hone a few things and ramp up are a positive. For that matter, what did Rooker display in his career thus far and his SSS last year to indicate he doesn't deserve a shot at some playing time? I can easily see a scenario where AK opens 2021. But I can also see viable reasons for Rooker and Cave, maybe Arraez also, sharing LF come opening day from a purely baseball and roster situation. Personally, I disagree with Bonnes's thoughts that they will make an early decision on this. With about 2 1/2 weeks to go, I'd argue the best thing they could do for AK AND the roster is to let Kirilloff stick around for as long as possible for development and competition. Baldelli and his staff are going to make what they believe is the right decision, whichever way it goes. And I don't believe it will bave anything more to do than simply putting the best initial roster together.

IMO, should be Arrez when he plays. Especially if Donaldson is going to remain in the 2 spot. I like Polanco as an alternate if he's back to his old self. I appreciate the BOOM Kepler can bring to the spot, but I think his LH power needs to hit lower.

Maeda looking like how he finished last season. I have no problem with Colome. I like him. The Dirty Sox let him go because La Russa wants a traditional closer. Still say Robles just being his normal self is a key to the pen. In regards to Oddo, I wanted him back. I thought it was a given for so many reasons. I thought he and Pineda would give the team a tremendous 3-4 punch. But everything I have heard and read is he wanted a longer and greater $ value than the Twins were willing to offer. Good for him. And if he had been willing to go 1yr or 2yr we might have found a match. But Happ for 1yr would seem to equalize things with some really nice options being ready or almost ready. And there is depth. There is imminent potential. I don't feel we are at a disadvantage simply because we didn't keep Oddo. There's just too much coming up really soon and on hand to stress the rotation for 2021. I'd like to have Oddo. For 2021, I still like what we have.

He has to show more than what he's thrown thus far. (Yes it's early). He's also older than Wisler. Just because we are talking slider-centric doesn't mean he's directly comparable to Wisler. In fact, I would say Anderson and Hamilton are better comps. They are closer in age and pure stuff IMO. The primary difference being Sparkman has been a starter in the past and I'm not sure either Anderson or Hamilton have ever been such. But should that matter? Both Anderson and Hamilton appear to be better comps. Either, or both, could contribute this year. We traded for Anderson and he has potential, as well as being on the 40 man. But I keep reflecting on Hamilton and what his status was before an accident and a volatile ball to his face tbat further de-railed his potential. Over the last several months, he FINALLY is working for ONE team. And that is important. If there is any chance for him to find himself, there is no more waiver wire B.S.. He gets to work now with an established team. A competitive team with a new and progressive coaching structure. His arm seems to be healthy. Can he get over the mental hump of what he has had to endure? I'd like to think that he can being part of this organization. Not saying Sparkman doesn't have a shot. But these other 2 are much more comparable, IMO, based on youth and stuff.