DocBauer

Just some really quick math has his last 6yr quad slash line at the following: .279/ .328/ .377/ .705 He is not an amazing hitter or a power threat to be sure. But his overall numbers since his initial indoctrination to MLB have improved. At 31yo I get that quickness and speed may slip somewhat. But experience also helps compensate for any slowing of reactions. So I am a bit confused when we talk about his defense sliding as a 31yo. (Not exactly an old man by today's standards, especially with nutrition and training, etc). But if true, and there is any slip, we're talking about elite defense, maybe the best defensive SS in the last 15-20 years, to very good at worst? Sign me up!

That's only because you've been here before.

I've been a Kepler fan and hopeful believer for some time now. He's a smooth athlete with a nice swing and I think what we saw in 2019 was his real potential. And I think its time for him to move down lower in the order for an RBI slot. I don't know that 2021 is really a make or break season for him as 2020 was a strange year for a lot of guys, but there have been enough holes in his performance here and there to suggest he is replaceable in the near future if a return to 2019 levels/production don't take place. It had never occurred to me until this OP, that Kepler's contract was so manageable he could have an important role still, even if he became more of a 4th OF/platoon player. Is there room for all 5 of Kirilloff, Buxton, Kepler, Larnach and Rooker? Perhaps there is. But I would speculate a trade of someone would take place in the future still.

Work and life got in the way for me to comment on Balazovic's prospect thread, but no matter since they are somewhat entwined in the rankings anyway. Right now, today, I'd rank Duran slightly higher than Jordy Blaze because he has a bit more experience at the higher levels, has a bit more velocity, and his "splinker" is just crazy good. But we're cutting fine hairs here. Both now have the build and the velocity and STUFF to be very good pitchers. BOTH need to just harness control/consistency overall, including that 3rd or 4th pitch, and just gain additional experience. NOTE: Any 4th pitch doesn't have to be outstanding, and can be worked on even at the ML level, but even a mediocre/decent 4th offering can be important just to keep the hitter guessing. I am a tremendous opptomist about both these guys, as well as Chalmers, Canterino, Sands and Enlow, amongst a few others. But calls for Balazovic to open with the team are just misguided. How about working on his stuff and getting some IP under his belt before we annoit him with a spot. The ML rotation is basically set with some competition for the 5th spot. That's the way it should be. Over a full season, there is going to be opportunity and depth will be needed. There is a real chance that Duran and/or Balazovic will get an opportunity at some point. And since we are talking about young pitchers, sorry, not sorry, don't sleep on Dobnak and Thorpe and even Smeltzer. SOMEONE is probably going to have a long relief spot initially and get chances to start. Don't dismiss what Dobnak has done despite a bad end to 2020. Only 77IP and some want to dismiss him already with a bad finish last year? Thorpe has done EVERYTHING you could expect in his milb career and hope for, especially after 2 missed seasons and some flash in 2019. But he's a bum with an additional option because 2020 was a mess? Please! Smeltzer has shown enough in his milb career and his 2019 ML appearance to give him some rope. Any of these 3 could contribute in 2021, and none of them should be easily dismissed for their potential as a rotation piece or a bullpen option for 2021 or going forward. I've been churning around pitching options for days now at the ML level as well as AAA and AA. I'm sure many of you have as well. Assuming, for a moment, everyone is healthy and ready to go to at least start the season. ONE of Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer is probably the last pitcher, the long man on the staff, which will fluctuate of course, but provide depth and opportunity. There is a real chance Duran gets a shot at some point. Maybe Balazovic. Maybe someone else. But again, since we are talking prospects within the system, consider this list of SP for AAA and AA to begin the 2021 season: AAA: Duran Ober Thorpe Dobnak Smeltzer Jax AA: Balazovic Canterino Winder Sands Enlow Chalmers Barnes Sammons A couple of these guys are certainly a wait and see and may never make a ML roster. But most of these guys are top 10-20 on the prospect list. Or are guys who have had their initial cup of coffee and we're waiting to see. Duran and Balazovic are at the top of the list to be sure! But There is some serious depth here not to be slept on.

I've met a handful of Twins fans here and there over the years in Omaha. The only ones I actually KNOW are my dad and myself, lol. So perhaps you are more plugged in to fellow Twins fans than I am. I think it's been 15-20 years since the Twins had a AAA franchise visit here. I believe it was the Portland days IIRC. Werner is a really nice stadium and I've been there a few times on the 1B side. Stinks only because the sun is a bite the first few innings. Told my dad we will have to get tickets on the 3B side behind the visitor's dugout so we can wave Twins hats and give shout outs, lol. Never watched a game in a suite. Sounds fun! Is it better than being in the stands? We can do a PM in the future to look at games and connect. Maybe a few other fans from around the area would journey in for a game???

And to be cliche', that sounds so much like him. But it would be a really nice gesture on the part of the FO to approach him with this.

Granted the examples may be hand picked, but if Chalmers' change can be even close to that good on a regular basis he is going to be nasty. Love Duran's length, velocity and splinter. I don't doubt he will be be helping in 2021. As someone pointed out in another thread, interesting that Winder was brought in instead of Sands. Not a negative comment on Sands, I'd think, but more of a positive one regarding Winder.

I think a "B" is fair at this point but could make an honest argument for a "B+". Could easily be an "A" at season's end if Polanco is healthy.

Guess I'll be checking out the Saints here in Omaha when they visit. PUMPED!

Absolutely one of my favorite players from his era. Great ballplayer and even better face of the franchise. I wish him a very happy and fulfilling retirement. Any chance of re-signing him to a 1 day contract to retire as a Twin?

Cleveland...WOOF! And not just at 1B. But shouldn't 1B be the easiest spot to find SOMEONE who can field a little, hit a little,and provide some pop? Feels like they just don't care at the moment.

God Bless you and your family and give you all strength. Happy to hear your reports and recovery are encouraging.

And this kid, unfortunately and perhaps unwarranted, is the lightening rod for top 10 debate. How many top prospects struggle early and then develop? How many mid to late round selections flash early and then fade away to obscurity? I admit to having real concerns about being a "fast riser" and an athlete who was initially overlooked due to lack of camps and touring teams and whathaveyou. In all sports, at all levels, we see guys who are great athletes but not necessarily good players. And I'm not saying this will be the case with Cavaco. And being so young, adjusting to wooden bats, being away from home, growth spurts, a nagging injury, can all lead to a poor initial introduction. I'm just saying, it gives me pause. I think, while virtually ALL milb players lost out on a year of development, I think Cavaco and Javier may have lost the most opportunity in 2020. Which is a bit ironic as they remind me of one another despite their different backgrounds. I really hope this kid is 100% and ready to go. And I'll definitely be watching him closely this year.

There is some good catching in the Central, no doubt! Based on what we've seen of Jeffers thus far, and what we've seen from Garver previously, the only thing keeping the Twins from being an A, in my opinion, is Jeffers continuing his early results and Garver just being himself, though I don't expect a repeat of 2019 and never have.

I'm not surprised by the payroll hitting $130M. I've been expecting it, stated so, and hoped I wouldn't look silly for doing so, lol. I am mildly surprised, however, at Happ over Odorizzi for what will probably turn out to be only a couple $M less. I just saw a perfect fit and thought $135M made sense to me. The possibility exists, however, at $130M to take on payroll during the season and still keep the final 2021 number at $140M-ish, which is what they spent last year. Could they still add another pen arm? Yes, absolutely. I think it's debatable if they NEED to, however. If the arms on hand perform as expected, they really only have 1 spot left to fill. And they seem to like having that 1 spot open for development, auditions, and flexibility to option guys up and down during the season. The one area I remain a bit concerned about is another infield spot. Arraez is going to be a pseudo-starter, but history has shown injuries happen. Gordon and Blankenhorn need to be at St Paul playing daily at least to start the season. Astudillo could, in fact, be the last guy on the bench to begin the season. And while the well has been drying up recently, I'm still wondering about another late infield signing for depth. As LA Vikes pointed out, Miller and Gyorko are still out there, unless I misssd a recent signing. Is there room to add? Would they want to join a contending club as a piece to the puzzle? Or would they still be looking for more guaranteed playing time somewhere?

One thing about the Twins currently is they aren't afraid to ZIG when other teams ZAG. Or is it the other way around? The 2020 draft was supposed to be filled with intriguing arms and yet they only drafted HS pitcher Raya in the 4th round. (I'm actually higher on his growth potential and projectability the next few years over maybe any other selection, but I digress). They clearly believe in best player available, and also clearly believe that there is arm talent available past the 1st round. It would appear their philosophy is that unless you draft very high and have as close to a "can't mjss" as possible you don't "reach" for pitching but rather look for things you like and then build on that. Sure has worked for Cleveland. Despite lack of positional flexibility, there is room for someone like Sabato. There is always room for a guy to play 1B only and have a difference making bat. And that big RH bat could play with the port siders like Kepler, Kirilloff and Larnach. I think I would rank him a couple spots lower, even with his 1st round selection, simply because he's a 1B only who hasn't played yet. But I still don't have any problem with his potential value and being a late 1st round selection. Hopefully, we'll continue to draft late for years to come.

Great news. The kid deserves a break and some continuity in his professional life for a change. Hope he has a great year.

With payroll at $130M, accounting for incentives, they are a little short of what I expected. Being more conservative than what I expected or holding out room for a mid-season addition? Hmmm...maybe. But while having yet to make a major mid-season move, they haven't exactly shied away from moves either. (Both ways). They have checked all the boxes. They have a team in place that looks at least as good as last year's despite some turnover. And they have done so...at this point...while keeping their milb system in place, providing depth, promotions and future trades all intact. I just can't see any immediate need or opportunity staring us in the face at the moment. But it's only mid February and this is Falvey and Levine. They have always made a move right around the start of ST or just after previously. Maybe it's another BP arm or a bench option instead of something big, but I would be surprised if we didn't see one more move.

My man, this is a drum I've been beating on for months now! There is no such thing as a perfect roster. But despite some people's various opinions I'd dare say 1-4 the Twins are sitting better at catcher than maybe any team in MLB. I dare say they have some of the best OF depth in all of MLB as well even after trading Wade when you look at the roster, the prosoects and the recent claims/signings/invites. And I'm going to ignore pitching for purpose of this discussion. What about the infield? The Twins, ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY, have one of the best infields in all of MLB. 100%! And Arraez as the 10th man is brilliant. Reports indicate he is on board, and his role will be a larger version of what be did his rookie year. BUT...despite talent and optimism, we have a history of ankles and knees and calves in our potentially awesome infield. While we want to roll with Arraez as an outstanding 10th man, history has shown you can't always bet on potential and want and hope. Wouldn't it make sense to have insurance? While Marwin underachieved, and found enough AB to be a starter, there was still room for Adrianza to play. Arraez takes the Marwin role. But what makes more sense for a contending team? Have a couple of experienced glove guys at AAA you have to make room for, OR hope that Gordon and Blankenhorn are ready to help when called on...and maybe they will be...OR, drop a couple $M on a veteran infielder who may play a little, or a lot, and just increase your depth and options there? Forgive my language, but I'd rather "potentially" piss away a couple $M for a proven infield option and hope for the best and let Gordon and Blankenhorn get themselves ready at St Paul.

I'm with JLease on this. I don't even pretend to be an expert on a pitcher's motion and whether or not it's "max effort", which has always been a bit of a misnomer to me because aren't pitchers usually looking for max delivery/effort? I quibble over semantics deliberately merely to make a point. Yes, he has a herky-jerky movement initially, but then there is a brief pause before he delivers. And while some don't like what appears to me as a 3/4 delivery, it appears his motion is fluid once he gets past that brief pause. He himself has stated it's part of his timing mechanism. And while arm injuries can happen to any pitcher, at any time, in their career, it also happens for position players. For something that has worked so well for him so far...and seems smooth to me past that initial leg kick...I can't find myself concerned at this point. I think he has a chance to be a fast-riser and I will be disappointed if he doesn't spend at least a half year at Wichita after beginning the season at Cedar Rapids. With all due respect, hope and optimism to Duran and Jordy Blaze, I wouldn't be shocked if he was our top pitching prospect going in to next season.

While not dancing a jig...and I'm not Irish anyway...Im OK with this. We need depth and competition. Despite all the success of our staff in 2020, even in a short 60G season, we saw the need for depth. We know the recent injury history. The good? 25+ GS 2014-2016 and 14 in 2017, good career ERA, FIP and WHIP with a decent 8+K per 9. I agree with GNess that past injury history does in no way guarantee future injury. I also agree this is a lot like the Bailey signing last year. And that's NOT a bad thing. Bailey had a nice rebound 2019. If 2020 had been a full season, there is a very good chance Bailey would have contributed well over at least a half year. And every season there is someone who gets over the injury bug and suddenly shines like they used to and becomes a "steal" for the team who signed them. Why can't this be Shoemaker? Now, I would have preferred stretching payroll more to $8-10M for the HOPE of Paxton, the STEADINESS of Odorizzi or the UPSIDE of Walker and push Happ down. But 1-4 I really like the rotation we have. (Especially Happ getting out of Yankee stadium). There is still room for Dobnak, who I like, to make a difference. There is also room for Duran and Ober and potentially others over a full season. So again, I'm OK with this move.

Anybody else notice that the Twins won over 100 games in 2019, were on a pace for nearly 100 wins in 2020, and remain one of the top teams in MLB at this point with what is on hand and the moves they've made and have done so without a single trade of prospects? (Thus far). This is NOT by accident. The FO has talked about sustainability about the team. They are not opposed to trades, as we saw with the Graterol trade last year. But so far, they are doing exactly what I had hoped they would do coming off a lost 2020 milb year. They have been taking advantage of the market to build the team, already really good, and holding on to internal assets FOR NOW to further development for promotion and potential future trades. Without surprises, the "honorable mentions" here are potential top 20 options plus really soon. There is real "ammunition" in the system right now for future help as well as trade possibilities. Kudos!

Sudden flashback to my youth in the '80's and LOVE you for the brief flashback visit! Ahhhh....the memories and the music!

To the topic at hand: I see no reason to believe Rogers won't be at least a close approximation to what be bas been previously. There is no injury factor or sudden loss of velocity. He had a short season, OK season in 2020 but wasn't what we'd seen before. There is no major concern at this point, IMO. Nor should there be any concern at this point for sudden regression of Duffey. Where we can debate is Colome vs May for $2M more. Was a mistake made there? May has velocity and K numbers Colome can never match, even if Johnson tweaks his stuff/approach. But you can't deny the proven results of Colome over the past few years. The guy has been consistent and efficient as can be. Better in certain areas. And they are very different pitchers. I don't think it's totally fair to call them a "swap" because they are so different. Colome vs Romo, and how the pen was used, might be a better comparison. And in that regard, Colome might easily be an upgrade. I continue to be very impressed by Stashak with his location, deception and presence. He still needs refinement or a "decent" 3rd offering to take another step. And it is very, very easy to see Alcala taking on a larger role by the end of the season with experience. But to me, right now, to begin the season, the key to the pen is Robles. I toss out his 2020, as the Twins seem to also do, like so many others. I also toss out his 23 saves in 2019 not because he didn't do it, or can't do it, but because I'm focused on his career numbers and results. For his career, he has a higher BB per than I'd like. But his WHIP, ERA, over 9K per and other numbers are very solid. With ZERO Johnson magic, if we just get normal career numbers from Robles we've added a quality, experienced arm for the back half of the pen. The Twins had a surprisingly solid pen the 1st half of 2019 and a better one the last half after changes. They bad one of the best pens in all MLB in 2020. And now they've swapped out May and Romo for Colome and Robles. Even swap or improvement? Factor in Alcala and Stashak getting better, a couple new arms for Johnson to work with, and then add in Colina at some point and MAYBE Chalmers...who is going to remain a SP as long as possible...and I'm just worried right now about the pen. But my sense of any "worry" and key is Robles. If they got that signing right, the back end looks as good or better than what they had last season.

The velocity and spin rate seem to be there. He has learned a slider or slider adaptation off his curve with solid reports from all that I've read. His vaunted curve seems to have regressed, which is a shame because a good curve is still a valuable pitch to have, even with a centric focus on sliders. I admit I've been disappointed thus far because I'm just waiting for the "breakout" that JL mentioned. But then I look at solid numbers, upward movement and his age and I realize "hopeful impatience" is skewing my perspective. I don't know if I'd put him in MY top 10 only because the system is pretty deep with quality prospects all around, but I can't argue with him here.