DocBauer

I'm going to echo statements made here, as well as repeating myself from other threads previously. 1] The FO has drawn actual, public praise from agents to reporters for their professionalism in the past, especially recently from the 2020 milb season/fallout, FA contacts/negotiations to the recent arbitration process. While our FO COULD choose the play the service time game, there is ZERO reason to EXPECT that they will. But for some reason, it's just been assumed that they will. And that's just wrong at this time. 2] I fully appreciate all the work Matt put in to his arguements about potential value at late 20yr old value comparisons but completely dismiss it. (Though to be fair, he did state there is the possibility Kirilloff bucks his statistical trends as stated). I simply can't and won't dismiss value of a top 23yo prospect 6 or 7 years from now being an excellent player because others aren't. I just don't see any truism in that arguement. There are statistics, damn statistics, and lies. I disagree with, "To get this narrative right, and to shape the arguement properly, we need to premediate upon and look at these threads of of arguement now". The Twins love the kid and believe in him. The fact he was in St Paul and got his ONE GAME appearance in the playoffs proves that. And yes, he lost a year to injury and lost a covid year. Yes, he needs to prove himself, no matter how much the Twins love him and believe in him. But other pkayers have lost season's due to injury and all but a few lost the entire 2020 season. And if 2020 had been normal, he might be written in permanent ink for LF RIGHT NOW. But that's not what happened. 3] In ANY sport, you have a roster of players, college or professional. And you have an investment not only in playing your best players, but you have an investment in ALL of your players on that roster. Matt, I'm a huge fan and believer in Kirilloff. And I can't wait to see him play daily and start to rake and reach his potential. I'm sure you feel the same. And I hate to be THAT GUY, but I have to re-quote something you said: "He's only still waiting to crack the roster because last season was truncated, and because of injury issues earlier in his professional career." This only seems to restate the fact that maybe he shouldn't be HANDED the job out of ST. And I agree with you 100% that his play in ST will/should help determine the issue. But again, the Twins have an investment in Arraez and Rooker as well. And just taking a long and pragmatic view of that investment, don't those guys also deserve opportunity? (Leaving Cave out of the discussion because thus far he is what he is, a really nice 4th OF who might start for a lesser team). Can we just drop the service time issue for a moment and look at reality? (Meant for everyone). Arraez needs to play. Rooker not only needs to play, he's done nothing in his milb career or SSS at the ML level to indicate he can't play or doesn't deserve a chance. What is wrong...assuming for a moment that Khirilloff begins next season at St Paul...with letting AK "ramp up" and let others get their shot? For example, for a moment, think about a pro or college football team that has an incumbent WR/RB/QB but brought in a 5* recruit or top draft choice at the same position. There is an investment in the talent on hand. Do you just hand the job to the new guy whether he is ready or not? No. He earns the spot, either immediately or soon, or eventually. We just need to drop the whole service time issue and examine putting the best team on the field. That may mean Kirilloff being the #1 guy from day one. It could also mean, especially considering how crazy and weird 2020 was, that letting Arraez and Rooker get an opportunity to begin the season is the smart move. I'm of the hope Kirilloff is READY and has a great ST and forces the issue and rakes from day ONE and contends with Jeffers for ROY. (Interesting nobody has ever spoken about Jeffers being held back for service time. Why? Oh yeah, lack of depth and options) Service time may be a result, but it doesn't have to be a mitigating factor if we just approach the situation logically and ignore some rampant conspiracy that the Twins have no additional OF depth/options and are just playing a "potential" numbers game.

Me continuing to pretend I know anything: 1] The size, strength and stroke are all there for him to develop real power. He seems to have a good eye. Sounds a lot like Kirilloff doesn't it? I see no reason why he shouldn't continue to adapt through experience to be at least a little better at pulling the ball. But as stated by others previously, there is nothing wrong with having the ability to hit rockets to the opposite field and center field as well. 2] I've never heard anything that he can't be a solid defensive RF. Maybe not as good as Kepler, but solid. Reports are he has the arm for RF. Kirilloff is probably a little better athlete with a little more speed...he played some CF in HS and I believe a little when initially signed...and might be a better fit in LF where I believe there is a little more ground to cover. 3] While trades may yet happen, I've been pleased the FO seems to have fit team needs without trading talent at this point, even though there appears to be a pending logjam in the OF. And I'm starting to wonder if there might not be room for everyone with Cruz gone, possibly, after 2021. Kirilloff in LF, Larnach in RF, (though I'm sure each could play the other corner just fine), Rooker able to fill in at both corners as well as DH and 1B, where Kiriloff could also fill in. You still have Kepler in RF and backing up CF. There could absolutely be room for everyone rotating between 3 1/2 spots in the field and DH. Not saying that's the way it's going to play out but it's sure interesting to contemplate. The monkey wrench may be if Donaldson has to shift to 1B or DH. Hopefully that is not the case.

It was a fun and interesting podcast. Thank you, as always! Unfortunately, I was distracted and unable to post, but it was great! 1] The 2nd lineup is obviously the one that makes the most sense. And it was interesting how you came up with the first one! I forget who picked Kepler to bat leadoff initially. Seth? But loved how you all got stuck back peddling from there on, lol. A] Arraez and Polanco need to hit #1 to set the lineup and it's time for Kepler to move down with his power in to an RBI slot. B] Is Donaldson really best in the #2 slot? He's done well there in the past, but he's also performed very well in the 3-4 spots. I keep wondering if he and Donaldson wouldn't be better as the 3-4 hitters most days. C] Buxton will determine where he best fits by just being healthy and on the field. He could easily slide up a few spots. But I wonder if he might not be a better fit in the 9th spot BEHIND Simmons. I think back to old-school La Russa when he was in the NL and he would hit the pitcher 8th because he wanted a better bat in the 9 hole to flip the lineup. Not saying Buxton shouldn't hit 8th, or higher depending on how he is producing, just offering a little "out of the box" thinking. 2] Not sure I buy the 14 man staff with a 9 man pen. With options available, we've seen the Twins flip a couple guys here and there as needed in both 2019 and 2020. I haven't looked at the schedule yet, but have to assume there will be some off days early. And just like 2020, reinforcements will be literal minutes down the road for half the season. I think the extra bench player...whoever it may be...makes more sense, especially to get Arraez AND Rooker early season AB. 3] Is this the obligatory portion where we discuss LF yet again? Even if Kirilloff is on the opening day roster, there is room for Rooker. Just not another bench player. Said it before and will say it again, there is a difference in AK MASHES in ST vs getting a few weeks to ramp up and get ready and actually let Arraez and Rooker get those first few weeks to perform. Forgetting the service time B.S., what is wrong with letting those guys play and have opportunity? 4] Am I CRAZY GOOD about the pen? No. But do I like the pen? Yes. Duffey is great. I believe Rogers will rebound and be fine. How can you not be happy to have a proven arm like Colome added? Would I rather have May than Robles for an extra $4.5M? Yes. Despite a tendancy to give up some key hits and HR before settling down and SO the side, May mostly performed. He may or may not...no pun intended...reach a new level of consistency with the Mets. But why is everyone so down on Robles after 2020? He's a year younger and has produced fine numbers in his career that rival anything May has done. Pure velocity and SO potential, I think the Twins have great expectations for Alcala and even Colina as movers. Right now, LF is an intriguing development. One of Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer will probably fill a long spot in the initial bullpen. (NOTE: I found your report about Johnson's comments regarding Thorpe interesting). And there is a large number of guys who could option in and out for the final spots in the pen. IF Kirilloff begins in St Paul, there is 1 bench spot available to begin the season. I'd still lay money on Astudillo at this point. But he has to earn that spot.

A few quick thoughts on the grades themselves: Detroit: IF they get the 2020 version of Grossman they have to be a C. He can be a solid table setter with a few RBI at the top of the order. KC: Agree on the C grade based on the Benintendi we've seen the last couple of seasons. Cleveland: "A" for effort and improvement...the kind of signing they should have made 2-3yrs ago...but the C+ is probably accurate. If Rosario hits to the same level as he bas the past couple of years, I would argue for a grade somewhere in the "B's". Dirty Sox: IMO, you can't discuss/examine Rosario's defense and not downgrade Jimenez for the same. I think a slight downgrade to B+ may be in order. Twins: INCOMPLETE. I fully appreciate the perspective presented here, but I'm calling the grade incomplete at this time as theee are too many things in motion right now to put any big, red letter at the top of the page. I think AK will be fine defensively, and I think he is going to be an outstanding offensive player. I'm still a little uncertain as to his AVG/OB skills vs pure power ceiling, but he's going to be a STUD. I agree Cave is a nice ballplayer and a fine 4th OF who gets a bad rap only because his offense has been streaky at times. Rooker has a chance to have a nice career as a bat first player who can play 3 spots as well as DH. Jury is still out, obviously, as to how good he can be. Arraez was handed an OF glove in 2019 and thrown out in to LF. All things considered, I didn't think he performed all that bad. Now he has time to actually work on the position to be at least passable in his new role. Kirilloff will be the guy soon, if not immediately. And I'm not going to rehash the service time issue as it's been done to death already and we don't even know if jts going to happen. But I will repeat that a few weeks at AAA to get going and let Arraez and Rooker get a shot isn't necessarily a bad thing. I wouldn't be shocked if AK is in the ROY conversation once the smoke clears however.

I know just enough about catching to be dangerous, but I have always maintained the most important part of the job was communication with the pitching staff, and just having the pitchers comfortable working with and throwing to their backstop. Think Suzuki when he was with the Twins. He didn't do anything special, but you always heard how the pitchers liked throwing to him. I think Jeffers has that "confidence" within himself and seems to invite that confidence. For the record I think Garver has grown tremendously in that area as well. The throwing portion of the position is nice, but the actual run game in MLB has largely disappeared. You still want a decent, accurate arm back there, but the best defense is still to not let those guys that do run get on base. I was immensely impressed watching Jeffers last year, especially considering he was not only jumping a level but wasn't even playing ball on a normal daily basis when he made his appearance. I don't know how good he could be, but he looks like a real keeper. I believe he will be a fine offensive player all the way around but am uncertain as to his ceiling. My only concern is SSS at this point and how does his offense play over a full season. Even if he shows some struggles...not saying he will...but it shouldn't dampen expectations for his future success. I will be disappointed if the Twins don't have the best 1-2 punch behind the plate in MLB for the next few years.

It says they are young-ish with some upside remaining and provide depth as well as a "maybe" about themselves. But all were waived just as ST started or just before, and by this time, 40 man rosters for each team are basically set. Had any of them been waived 2-4 weeks ago, any or all may have been picked up.

The service time issue is an eleohant in the room to be sure. But it only becomes one if Kirilloff has an outstanding ST and hits .500. Even then, let's not forget the service time issue is something agreed on by both the owners and the union. Yes, it will undoubtedly change going forward, but it exists TODAY. Further, it still depends on AK's ST, AND we don't even know if the FO will even play that card. But let's say they do. From a pure roster construction perspective it could make viable sense. Why not Arraez and Rooker to begin the year? Arraez needs to play 5 days a week and isn't Rooker a quality prospect? Didn't be show well in his initial appearance? You want the best and deepest team you can have. But aren't those two guys part of the equation? No matter how you slice it, no matter Kirilloff's future...which I think will be outstanding...a AAA jump-start to 2021 letting those guys get a chance is not a bad thing.

My apologies for the accidental double post.

Just some really quick math has his last 6yr quad slash line at the following: .279/ .328/ .377/ .705 He is not an amazing hitter or a power threat to be sure. But his overall numbers since his initial indoctrination to MLB have improved. At 31yo I get that quickness and speed may slip somewhat. But experience also helps compensate for any slowing of reactions. So I am a bit confused when we talk about his defense sliding as a 31yo. (Not exactly an old man by today's standards, especially with nutrition and training, etc). But if true, and there is any slip, we're talking about elite defense, maybe the best defensive SS in the last 15-20 years, to very good at worst? Sign me up!

That's only because you've been here before.

I've been a Kepler fan and hopeful believer for some time now. He's a smooth athlete with a nice swing and I think what we saw in 2019 was his real potential. And I think its time for him to move down lower in the order for an RBI slot. I don't know that 2021 is really a make or break season for him as 2020 was a strange year for a lot of guys, but there have been enough holes in his performance here and there to suggest he is replaceable in the near future if a return to 2019 levels/production don't take place. It had never occurred to me until this OP, that Kepler's contract was so manageable he could have an important role still, even if he became more of a 4th OF/platoon player. Is there room for all 5 of Kirilloff, Buxton, Kepler, Larnach and Rooker? Perhaps there is. But I would speculate a trade of someone would take place in the future still.

Work and life got in the way for me to comment on Balazovic's prospect thread, but no matter since they are somewhat entwined in the rankings anyway. Right now, today, I'd rank Duran slightly higher than Jordy Blaze because he has a bit more experience at the higher levels, has a bit more velocity, and his "splinker" is just crazy good. But we're cutting fine hairs here. Both now have the build and the velocity and STUFF to be very good pitchers. BOTH need to just harness control/consistency overall, including that 3rd or 4th pitch, and just gain additional experience. NOTE: Any 4th pitch doesn't have to be outstanding, and can be worked on even at the ML level, but even a mediocre/decent 4th offering can be important just to keep the hitter guessing. I am a tremendous opptomist about both these guys, as well as Chalmers, Canterino, Sands and Enlow, amongst a few others. But calls for Balazovic to open with the team are just misguided. How about working on his stuff and getting some IP under his belt before we annoit him with a spot. The ML rotation is basically set with some competition for the 5th spot. That's the way it should be. Over a full season, there is going to be opportunity and depth will be needed. There is a real chance that Duran and/or Balazovic will get an opportunity at some point. And since we are talking about young pitchers, sorry, not sorry, don't sleep on Dobnak and Thorpe and even Smeltzer. SOMEONE is probably going to have a long relief spot initially and get chances to start. Don't dismiss what Dobnak has done despite a bad end to 2020. Only 77IP and some want to dismiss him already with a bad finish last year? Thorpe has done EVERYTHING you could expect in his milb career and hope for, especially after 2 missed seasons and some flash in 2019. But he's a bum with an additional option because 2020 was a mess? Please! Smeltzer has shown enough in his milb career and his 2019 ML appearance to give him some rope. Any of these 3 could contribute in 2021, and none of them should be easily dismissed for their potential as a rotation piece or a bullpen option for 2021 or going forward. I've been churning around pitching options for days now at the ML level as well as AAA and AA. I'm sure many of you have as well. Assuming, for a moment, everyone is healthy and ready to go to at least start the season. ONE of Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer is probably the last pitcher, the long man on the staff, which will fluctuate of course, but provide depth and opportunity. There is a real chance Duran gets a shot at some point. Maybe Balazovic. Maybe someone else. But again, since we are talking prospects within the system, consider this list of SP for AAA and AA to begin the 2021 season: AAA: Duran Ober Thorpe Dobnak Smeltzer Jax AA: Balazovic Canterino Winder Sands Enlow Chalmers Barnes Sammons A couple of these guys are certainly a wait and see and may never make a ML roster. But most of these guys are top 10-20 on the prospect list. Or are guys who have had their initial cup of coffee and we're waiting to see. Duran and Balazovic are at the top of the list to be sure! But There is some serious depth here not to be slept on.

I've met a handful of Twins fans here and there over the years in Omaha. The only ones I actually KNOW are my dad and myself, lol. So perhaps you are more plugged in to fellow Twins fans than I am. I think it's been 15-20 years since the Twins had a AAA franchise visit here. I believe it was the Portland days IIRC. Werner is a really nice stadium and I've been there a few times on the 1B side. Stinks only because the sun is a bite the first few innings. Told my dad we will have to get tickets on the 3B side behind the visitor's dugout so we can wave Twins hats and give shout outs, lol. Never watched a game in a suite. Sounds fun! Is it better than being in the stands? We can do a PM in the future to look at games and connect. Maybe a few other fans from around the area would journey in for a game???

And to be cliche', that sounds so much like him. But it would be a really nice gesture on the part of the FO to approach him with this.

Granted the examples may be hand picked, but if Chalmers' change can be even close to that good on a regular basis he is going to be nasty. Love Duran's length, velocity and splinter. I don't doubt he will be be helping in 2021. As someone pointed out in another thread, interesting that Winder was brought in instead of Sands. Not a negative comment on Sands, I'd think, but more of a positive one regarding Winder.

I think a "B" is fair at this point but could make an honest argument for a "B+". Could easily be an "A" at season's end if Polanco is healthy.

Guess I'll be checking out the Saints here in Omaha when they visit. PUMPED!

Absolutely one of my favorite players from his era. Great ballplayer and even better face of the franchise. I wish him a very happy and fulfilling retirement. Any chance of re-signing him to a 1 day contract to retire as a Twin?

Cleveland...WOOF! And not just at 1B. But shouldn't 1B be the easiest spot to find SOMEONE who can field a little, hit a little,and provide some pop? Feels like they just don't care at the moment.

God Bless you and your family and give you all strength. Happy to hear your reports and recovery are encouraging.

And this kid, unfortunately and perhaps unwarranted, is the lightening rod for top 10 debate. How many top prospects struggle early and then develop? How many mid to late round selections flash early and then fade away to obscurity? I admit to having real concerns about being a "fast riser" and an athlete who was initially overlooked due to lack of camps and touring teams and whathaveyou. In all sports, at all levels, we see guys who are great athletes but not necessarily good players. And I'm not saying this will be the case with Cavaco. And being so young, adjusting to wooden bats, being away from home, growth spurts, a nagging injury, can all lead to a poor initial introduction. I'm just saying, it gives me pause. I think, while virtually ALL milb players lost out on a year of development, I think Cavaco and Javier may have lost the most opportunity in 2020. Which is a bit ironic as they remind me of one another despite their different backgrounds. I really hope this kid is 100% and ready to go. And I'll definitely be watching him closely this year.

There is some good catching in the Central, no doubt! Based on what we've seen of Jeffers thus far, and what we've seen from Garver previously, the only thing keeping the Twins from being an A, in my opinion, is Jeffers continuing his early results and Garver just being himself, though I don't expect a repeat of 2019 and never have.

I'm not surprised by the payroll hitting $130M. I've been expecting it, stated so, and hoped I wouldn't look silly for doing so, lol. I am mildly surprised, however, at Happ over Odorizzi for what will probably turn out to be only a couple $M less. I just saw a perfect fit and thought $135M made sense to me. The possibility exists, however, at $130M to take on payroll during the season and still keep the final 2021 number at $140M-ish, which is what they spent last year. Could they still add another pen arm? Yes, absolutely. I think it's debatable if they NEED to, however. If the arms on hand perform as expected, they really only have 1 spot left to fill. And they seem to like having that 1 spot open for development, auditions, and flexibility to option guys up and down during the season. The one area I remain a bit concerned about is another infield spot. Arraez is going to be a pseudo-starter, but history has shown injuries happen. Gordon and Blankenhorn need to be at St Paul playing daily at least to start the season. Astudillo could, in fact, be the last guy on the bench to begin the season. And while the well has been drying up recently, I'm still wondering about another late infield signing for depth. As LA Vikes pointed out, Miller and Gyorko are still out there, unless I misssd a recent signing. Is there room to add? Would they want to join a contending club as a piece to the puzzle? Or would they still be looking for more guaranteed playing time somewhere?

One thing about the Twins currently is they aren't afraid to ZIG when other teams ZAG. Or is it the other way around? The 2020 draft was supposed to be filled with intriguing arms and yet they only drafted HS pitcher Raya in the 4th round. (I'm actually higher on his growth potential and projectability the next few years over maybe any other selection, but I digress). They clearly believe in best player available, and also clearly believe that there is arm talent available past the 1st round. It would appear their philosophy is that unless you draft very high and have as close to a "can't mjss" as possible you don't "reach" for pitching but rather look for things you like and then build on that. Sure has worked for Cleveland. Despite lack of positional flexibility, there is room for someone like Sabato. There is always room for a guy to play 1B only and have a difference making bat. And that big RH bat could play with the port siders like Kepler, Kirilloff and Larnach. I think I would rank him a couple spots lower, even with his 1st round selection, simply because he's a 1B only who hasn't played yet. But I still don't have any problem with his potential value and being a late 1st round selection. Hopefully, we'll continue to draft late for years to come.