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Everything posted by DocBauer
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Prediction: The Twins are Heading to Wichita (and maybe St. Paul too)
DocBauer commented on nowheresville's blog entry in One Post Blog
If I'm not mistaken, wasn't Wichita previously a AA affiliate? Or am I remembering incorrectly? -
You may be right as we just know so little how this market is going to play out. But the back issue that slowed him to begin the year might be explained by the short ramp up to begin this season. He had a back issue in 2017 that hindered him with Tampa, but showed no signs of it being an issue in 2018 or 2019. The other injuries that provided a lost year this past season were flukish in nature and not major or potentially debilitating in any way. He will only be 31 next season. While not the exact player if Ray is worth $8M for 2021, I'd say Jake should be worth the same at least. Now, does he or anyone want a 1yr deal only? Is he looking hard for a multi-year deal? Does anyone offer it? Way too many unknowns. I think Doctor Gast hit it on the head when he stated the Twins know who Odorizzi is and what he can do. (As well as what he HAS done). Sometimes, dancing with the one you brought is better than looking for a different partner, to paraphrase an old axiom. I'd jump at 1yr and $10M. I'd strongly consider 3yrs at $30M myself. And IMO, Oddo would have to strongly considering it as the market after 2021 could still be convoluted, especially if a bunch of guys end up only on 1yr deals for next year. Good, solid ML SP...even 3/4 types are often worth $10-12M per. Sometimes more. I would consider 3yrs at $36M...but how much do the Twins really believe in him is the question.
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3 Potential Trades the Twins Can Make This Winter
DocBauer replied to Nash Walker's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yet another fun and interesting podcast. Really enjoyed it! Thanks again guys! All 3 scenarios have merit, and I don't feel any of them are outlandish in any way. (Though each may have to be tweaked slightly). Just my opinions/thoughts on each: 1] The Twins system had added a lot of arms with hope/projectability including a few with some pretty high upside. But I'm not yet content to move any of them just yet unless I feel the return is fully justified. And I don't buy the old adage "there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Of course there are! That's why you draft and sign them...and then hope for the best just like any position. With all due respect to Story, I don't see what very easily could be a 1yr rental as a smart gamble. A healthy Polanco is still a good ballplayer. Your top prospect could supplant him over the next couple of years. I just don't make this deal. 2] Would the Brewers really be crazy to make this deal? They have payroll to worry about like a lot of teams. Reportedly, they have a bad farm system. Do they really see themselves contending the next couple of seasons? If not, this deal actually makes a lot of sense for them, adding more prospect ammunition for a re-build. Woodruff and Hader could easily be about ready to leave just as the Bewers might be getting "good" again. Now, that being said, were I them, I'm debating Celestino over Wallner for the 2nd OF. I also think I want a 3rd arm such as Sands or Colina maybe. I think Canterino would be too much, unless he replaces someone. Lastly, I'm going to ask for Cave or Wade as a final piece to give me a decent, young-ish OF to provide immediate depth and the ability to stick around a few years. Virtually all of these guys could be ready over the next 2 seasons. IMO, the Brewers would not be crazy to make this deal...with the additional tweaks...if they reaĺy don't see themselves contending for a couple of years. They have to replenish or face some very dark days. 3] Fully confessing I don't know Ketel Marte as I just don't follow AZ at all. I like everything I've heard and read however. He fits a need as a true 10th man, which I don't think is unimportant. His numbers are solid, his versatility excellent, defense seems to be good to even better. Really smart out of the box thinking on this one. I'm tempted. Despite immense talent and potential, the Twins could absorb the losses of Cavaco and Rodriguez as well as Canterino due to being ready to win now, and having such a deep system. I AM concerned about Marte's contract situation in '23 and '24, but he would only be 29 & 30yrs old those seasons and if he continues to play and produce similarly at those ages...not the least bit OLD and probably still in his physical prime...he could absolutely be worth those $ numbers, especially considering other contracts coming off the books for younger players potentially and a fairly affordable first 2yrs. Final analysis? 1] No. I don't like an expensive 1 shot deal that isn't a SP. 2] Yes, even with tweaks and additional prospect cost. 3] Maybe. Again I'm very tempted here. But not so sure I wouldn't hold on the prospects involved for now and spend $5-7M on one of the quality FA 10th man options that are on the market. -
I still believe we will see a big DFA market to saturate the FA market and, potentially, cheap and late signing values. But what I find intriguing is Ray signing quickly as well as Stoman and Glausman accepting their QO. It means some players are willing/smart enough to grab what they can when offered. Also indicates at least some teams are smart/brave enough to keep an important piece of their puzzle despite financial concerns. I disagree Odorizzi was shaky in 2018. He was still solid. He was borderline outstanding in 2019, even as a 5+ IP thrower. His injuries in 2020 were freaky and in no way career threatening. Barring a trade for someone, he's a perfect fit for around $12-13M, whether it be 1yr or 3yr. He's no ACE, but who ever said he was? But he IS good! And he wants to be here. This really should be a happy no brainer sign unless demands get out of whack.
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3 Former All-Star Starters the Twins Could Sign
DocBauer replied to Cooper Carlson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Happy to bring Kluber on board as a flier for a couple $M with incentives. Otherwise, complete pass. -
Eddie or Miguel or Byron or Max? You choose
DocBauer commented on mikelink45's blog entry in mikelink45's Blog
Mike, tremendous post! And really, despite endless OP's before on the front page, I'd like to see this one moved there. I LOVE Eddie, even though he has made me pull my hair out many times or made me take an extra sip or two from my beverage of choice at times. I absolutely think he is a better player than given credit for at times. Like you, I've always chafed when some argue his RBI production and dismiss it as being in a good lineup and in a good spot. You still have to produce, right? And Eddie has, no doubt! The problem is, with all due respect and love for Eddie, is there someone knocking on the door who could do it as well or better who is younger and cheaper? We can compare Eddie and Max all day. Max is better defensively overall, younger, might have a higher ceiling, and might be better and more productive than he has been lower in the order instead of hitting #1. Also, it's really, really hard to look at the potential of Kirilloff, maybe Larnach, and NOT see better overall hitters who might not have the same "flair" but who are better overall "hitters". Power is awesome. Production is most important. Defense is really nice. But sometimes a younger player has as much or more ability to do all of that and maybe more. We can't lose Eddie and Cruz in the same year. But we have, I think, at least one ready replacement for Eddie. And I think we are going to be very OK with our #1 option there. We might even be better, overall, very soon. Kirilloff is going to be a stud!- 21 comments
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How Can the Twins Create MLB’s Best Roster?
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Unfortunately while I like the OP and the exercise in general, it has 2 minor flaws. ONE being teams won't remain static in regard to their rosters. Everyone will see at least minor changes. That could be for the good or bad. TWO is the most obvious situation regarding payroll across MLB. And that goes back to point #2. But let's talk in a vacuum for a moment. Let us safely assume nobody is going to raise team payrolls. Second, within that vacuum, let us be somewhat optomistic that inoculations help curve covid...along with more time...and teams expect something along the lines of half attendance. As Pohlad stated, the Twins are not looking to recapture losses from the 2020 season and want to consider 2021 on it's own terms. Would it then be far-fetched that the Twins might consider keeping next season's payroll also status quo? That would place them at approximately $138M IIRC. That would give them about $50M to build their roster. (I referenced this idea in a forums post recently, FWIW). I don't believe in change for the sake of change. But I do believe in change to shake things up a little and to keep a team always moving forward. So what does $50M for the Twins to remain one of the top teams in all of MLB, much less get better? (Financial numbers are my best guess on proposed estimates and a belief some expectations are a bit high, IMO). Internet knocked me out so I lost all of my "intelligent" thought processes and comments. Grrr! So I can repeat everything and make all of my seemingly intelligent points or I can now be sorta P.O. and comment briefly. I choose being p.o. and being brief. (Heavy sigh) BULLPEN: Giving up on big time arms already on hand is a mistake. Rogers at $6M and May for $5M makes sense to me. WAY TOO MUCH arm talent unless the market explodes for May. Absolutely love the idea of Yates for $4-5M on a 1yr make good offer. Clippard back for $2.5-3M should be a no-brainer. Someone offers May a BIG DEAL, rewind and look at Petit and Hunter in the $4-5M range. ROTATION: Barring a smart trade, which I think COULD happen, show me somebody better than Odorizzi for $10-13M. Yes, that's a $3M swing, but are we talking a 1yr or multi year guarantee? DH: Cruz has less than half one league to negotiate with considering re-build, financial considerations and rosters/DH in place. He might get some sort of 2nd year option. I don't buy $15M. Maybe. I'm thinking $13M tops. UTILITY: Hernandez sounds great, but goes back to the Dogers if they want him. Love the idea of Profar, MY first choice, with room to still improve, but won't accept a 10th man role, so I would choose LaStella as a perfect fit for about $6-7M. Adrianza is brought back for around $1M for his defense and a bet his offense is the 2018-19 version. All of these moves put the 2021 Twins almost dead on with the 2020 payroll for 2021...give or take just a little wiggle room. And should keep them as a very realist championship/top contending team with no raise in payroll. I WISH, in this scenario, there was room to bring in a Pillar kind of player for an extra $3-5M. But there just isn't room. Further, we still don't know if there is any chance of actually having a status quo $138M payroll. I hope it happens! But even at reports of a $125M option, I don't exactly think that means the Twins are dead in the water. There is still too much talent on hand and too many possibilities vs trade and DFA to be determined to not look for improvement. Maybe Smyly is our 4th SP option. Maybe Oddo reaĺy can be signed for $8M for 1yr. Maybe the Twins are the right team to offer Kluber a $8-10M make good offer. Maybe Carberera is the perfect 1yr 10th man option. A lot of unknowns at this point, unfortunately. If you look at the current roster and the milb depth, you can't help but be excited. But there are so many unknowns, you also have to be guarded and hope the FO is as smart as we think they are. I remain hopeful for 2021 even with questions. I see an awful lot of opportunity available if the payroll stays the same. If everyone else lowers payroll, then I still see opportunity because of the same. A lot of talent on hand. A ton of talent pounding on the door. Per the OP, you want to keep up with the top projected teams, just be smart and keep your payroll at an even quo at least. -
5 "Under the Radar" Free Agent Utility Player Targets
DocBauer commented on Andrew Luedtke's blog entry in Thoughts from The Catch
Cabrera is a guy I have my eye on. She should come inexpensively and has veteran experience. If he's league average, i think I'm OK with that for my 10th man. Not my very 1st choice, but with other roster considerations and finances to consider, I kinda like him. Hadn't considered Villar but like that idea. Unfortunately, he might not fit in the budget.- 7 comments
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Apologize for probably repeating some things already stated in the post podcast OP. I do think the FO and staff do a great job of identifying bullpen pieces. Internally, I think Alcala has a high ceiling and is already penciled in for 2021. Now, does he morph quickly in to a back end piece, or does he settle in to mid relief for the time being? Depends not only on him, but also any potential additions. I also believe Rogers is back for around $6+M. There is WAY too much arm talent and past production at his age to believe he is cooked after a mediocre 2020. Duffey is set. I believe Stashak and Wisler are near locks. Wisler less so, and he will regress somewhat. He pretty much has to! That's 5 of 8 spots virtually set. No matter how payroll gets set, there is need and room and at least SOME payroll to work with. Thielbar has a real shot, IMO, but doesn't have enough OOMF in his arm for me to just slot him in despite how well he performed last year. The Twins MIGHT slot Colina back in the rotation at some point, but IMO, they have decided his future is in the pen, at least for now. His one appearance late in the year is indicative of the Twins liking him, but no indication he is or is not ready yet. And, of course, there is ABSOLUTELY the possibility one of the 2 recent additions, or a flier yet to come, could surprise. But those ARE fliers and depth at this point. Also possible the Twins slide Thorpe in to the pen NOW, but I'm guessing he remains in the rotation for NOW. Can't ignore Smeltzer for some sort of role. Not even going to touch the Romero possibility at this point. But ALL of this is more about depth at this point. Clippard has been living on 1yr deals for about the same money for some time now while producing. He was excellent in 2020 at $2.7M I believe. His re-signing for somewhere between $2.5-3M makes so much sense for both sides. And I see no reason that kind of contract can't be fit in rather easily. Where it gets difficult is a NEED for ONE MORE quality arm to keep the pen strong for a championship caliber team. STILL have to make the crucial Cruz decision, bring in a #3/4 SP and at least consider a 10th man utility player. (IMO, Adrianza is a given at around $1M). There is going to be a financial crunch at some point. But a quality bullpen is too important to be ignored. Unless Cruz is gone, or Rogers is gone, (maybe and I doubt it), there just isn't room for a Hendricks or Hand signing unless payroll stays the same for 2021. THEN, there would be room. Losing either, or both, open up a whole different can of worms not to be discussed here. I agree with Tom, beyond the re-signing of Clippard, that there should be room for ONE GUY for about $4-5M. Does May really rank that highly on other teams list? I like him a lot. And I repeat that if he was a FA from another team, we might be clamoring for the Twins to sign him. But not a proven closer, does be really get $6-7M for multiple years from someone else? IDK, maybe he does. Maybe he doesn't and wants to stick with the Twins for $4-5M per. Like the RP offered, maybe a Yates or Hunter comes on board for a shot at winning for a $3-5M deal. Any way you want to slice up the roster and payroll pie, I'm looking at Clippard back and one more veteran arm for $3-5M, plus one more cheap flier with some sort of split contract or opt out deal.
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I think Kirilloff is being targeted to be the probable OF, but he also has to earn the job. This could easily result in an "accidental" extra year of service time. Rooker is older, has successful AAA time and looked ready in his SSS. The team already knows what they have in Cave and Wade. So I can see a scenario where Kirilloff doesn't have a great ST and comes up later. But once he's up, I think he'll be up for good.
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Who Should the Twins Protect from the Rule 5 Draft?
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I have been rooting for Javier for some time. All the potential in the world! He showed some real potential his first 2 years. And then he missed 2018 due to injury. And he might be the #1 guy in the system who got screwed by no milb season to get back to normal. But I think you are thinking of someone else or looking at the wrong season. His quad splits in 2019 were awefull.- 31 replies
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Who Should the Twins Protect from the Rule 5 Draft?
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I admit to being a bit worried last year about him. But with no milb season last year and not being on the taxi squad at St Paul, would someone really bank on stashing him for a year? I know scouts and various FO are always working and projecting. But do you really think he's at risk this time?- 31 replies
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Who Should the Twins Protect from the Rule 5 Draft?
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm with you on Rortvedt. I would be STUNNED if someone selected him and kept him. He's just not ready. He needs at least another year, especially after missing 2020. But really good and interestingly catcher prospects are valuable. Someone could find a reason to stash him on the roster or the IL. I'd like to be safe and protect him. I like Garver and absolutely don't think the 2020 version of him is the real player. But I think Jeffers and Rortvedt are the future.- 31 replies
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Twins Free Agent Targets: Relief Pitcher
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
First off, just want to say this podcast was outstanding! It was well laid out from top to bottom with options and opinions and thoroughly entertaining. Just a couple quick points: 1] Payroll is just such a mystery not only for the Twins, but for everyone. It's great that the TD staff and ML Traderumors and others offer up speculated contract offers. And while some guys WILL GET PAID, I still think a lot of the proposed numbers are high, including some of the targets I've seen for RP. Hand is a perfect example of how crazy this market may be. For every team to pass on him at $10M indicates a drop in $ across the board, IMO. 2] I think the Twins FO and staff have a really good eye for BP talent. And I have faith they will end up with a solid to great bullpen in 2021 no matter what direction they ultimately take. Those things being said, the Twins are a TOP contender with a wide open window with talent on hand, options available, and young talent on the way. But one way to KEEP being a contender is to make sure the pitching staff doesn't regress. My PERFECT scenario would be as follows: Rogers: $6M May: $5M Clippard: $3M (maybe as low as $2.5M) Yates: $4M And there is more than enough depth to not only complete the pen, but to have depth on hand. But that's roughly $18M...not a large amount really...applied to the $37M available to spend to reach the proposed $125M payroll target we are speculating. That leaves $18M left for a SP and Cruz, while ignoring any decent 10th man utility player signing. That's just not going to work. Clippard may be too good, too dependable and too cheap to not bring back. I think you have to decide if May or Yates makes the most sense. Yates has the track record but is a health question mark while May is younger, healthier, and may have another level left in him. My best guess? Rogers is back, Clippard is back, SOMEONE in the May-Yates-Hunter category MIGHT be signed for $3-4M and a flier is taken on a milb/$1M deal like the examples of Kline-Jones-Robertson. (Incentives could be thrown in, but would gladly be paid out if performance earned them I'd think). Depending on the proposed 3rd signing, the Twins then have $24-28M for Cruz, SP (Odorizzi?), Adrianza and a solid 10th man utility option. That's cutting things really close, but is do-able. Really wish the $ was there for $130M payroll. The opportunity is present for the Twins to put together a hell of a team for 2021 if it were. -
Who Should the Twins Protect from the Rule 5 Draft?
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
With all the craziness left over in regard to arbitration, FA, non-tendered players, etc, as part of the hangover from 2020 civic, crazy to realize rule 5 is also affected. With payroll questions and cuts, will anyone really want to spend money on a rule 5 pick? Or will teams be looking to spend a relatively small financial investment even if it means stashing a player for an entire year? Of course Balazovic is a given. I'm really not sure anyone would be willing to keep a AA catcher on their roster, but I'd be very tempted to protect Rortvedt just to make sure. I don't want to lose any of the guys listed. The system is deep and all of the guys listed have the potential over the next season or two to knock on the ML door. But are they really at risk of being selected and kept for a whole season? And while I believe there are some guys here who have a real chance over the next couple of years...as I previously stated...is there anyone listed who couldn't be replaced by others in the system? I think the givens are just that, with Rotvedt as the one question. Otherwise, we will need roster spots for whatever moves will be made over the next few months.- 31 replies
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I always enjoy topics like this, filled with so much speculation. I was, and remain, a fan of Escobar. I really wish we still had him, and that's not a knock on our current roster or those acquired. I'm agreeing with Mike that's it's just too early to tell if anyone actually won the trade. IIRC, the Twins did offer an extension but it was turned down. Considering he re-upped with Arizona for a very manageable contract, the Twins offer must have been low, or, not good enough to Escobar considering Sano was still the expected 3B and Polanco was coming on etc. Did the Twins receive a good haul in return? Absolutely! Now, we don't know how good Duran will be. But the guy has the right build and great stuff and results to back it up. (At least at the milb level). I have yet to read a single opinion from anyone that doesn't like him and his potential. And big potential arms are extremely valuable. As to Maciel and Trinidad, well, we'll see. The Twins system is LOADED pretty good OF talent but not everyone makes it, and there are always trade possibilities. You need 3 really good ones, plus a solid 4th, and sometimes a 5th when talking about depth and even DH possibilities. I believe Celestino is definitely ahead of Maciel. That doesn't mean Maciel doesn't turn out to be quality...or tradeable...as a 4th OF. Maybe Celestino gets moved at some point. Or maybe he takes over for Buxton at some point and we need that backup CF option. (Not saying I predict or want that, but it could happen). Trinidad, I believe, can/has played some CF but projects as a corner OF with a solid skill set. Again, a possible 4th OF option? Duran is the key piece here. And we should see him at some point in 2021. When and how good he is immediately is impossible to judge at this point. If either of the OF's turn in to decent/solid players, or part of a future trade, it could easily be a "victory" trade for the Twins for sure. As MajorLeague stated clearly, Duran as a quality ML SP to possible top 2 SP option will give the Twins the win here. But we're at least a year from a decision.
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Twins Spotlight Replay: Episode 5 (Travis Blankenhorn)
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I haven't listened yet but will. I've always had a soft spot for Blankenhorn since drafted. I always hoped he was going to be one of those really good athletes who just needed time to devote himself to one sport. I've been a bit disappointed, but he seems to be coming in to his own now. I'm not sure he's ready to fill the super utility role that Marwin held just yet, but I'm hopeful he could be soon. -
Offseason Outlook: Cody’s 2021 Twins Blueprint
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Agreed! But 34yo, barely pitched at any level for 2yrs, I just have a hard time seeing $10M. I'm just guessing, but I'm thinking half that with incentives for GS, IP, etc. I am thoroughly intrigued! But I don't know that I'd sign him with the idea of being my #4 SP. -
Minnesota Made: Caleb Thielbar
DocBauer replied to David Youngs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I like to pride myself on Twins knowledge and a good memory. But I have to be honest that I barely recall his initial time with the Twins. Looking at his stats, they were OK. Not great, but OK. When the Twins brought him back, and I read his story, and I heard about all his changes and increased velocity, saw what he did at AAA for Detroit, I thought "why not take a flier"? But honestly, I wasn't expecting much. What I saw this year surprised me. I DIDN'T see him sit around 93-94 as had been reported. Instead, what I saw was solid breaking stuff and great control. He actually reminded me of Stashak from the port side. I applaud his dedication! I really hope what we saw in 2020 was not a mirage. If it wasn't, he could be a solid middle innings guy for the next few years.- 4 replies
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Offseason Outlook: Cody’s 2021 Twins Blueprint
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Cody, nothing inherently wrong with your roster. But I choose to disagree on a few points. 1] Ozuna is a real talent. You and MLB Traderumors agree at $18M per. He's probably worth that under normal conditions. But we are facing anything but normal right now. I see very few teams willing to commit that kind of $. And we have a whole roster to consider. While I'd love to have him, I reflect on the following ideas: A] Cruz for 1yr at $12-15M...tops...or something like $12-13M with a $10-12M option and a nice $3-4M buyout. You save $ for the roster, aren't handcuffed financially, and have some potentially great bats not only knocking at the door, but ready to break it down. B] Brantley doesn't have Cruz's or Ozuna's pure power, but is probably just as good of a "hitter" with proven veteran production and should come with a cheaper price tag than Ozuna. I'm reading $14M per, but I'm still not sure that will be reality when the smoke clears. 2] Blankenhorn, IMO, is a guy nobody should sleep on. He is athletic and versatile position-wise with a decent bat that has power and he can run a bit. POTENTIALLY, he can play 5 spots decently as a 10th man while bringing something to the offense. The Twins added him to the 40 man, added him to the taxi squad, and promoted him for a game for a reason. But to bank on him to begin 2021 as their 10th man? I don't see it. Even with this expected crazy and unpredictable off-season, the Twins are fortunate that there are a number of very interesting super-utility types available from Cabrera to Profar, etc. I have a tough time believing all of these various options will garner $6-7M contracts. Depth of options should allow someone to be available in the $4-5M range and give Blankenhorn a little more time to be ready. 3] I absolutely LOVE the idea of Kluber on a flier! But that's where I draw the line. He COULD be the biggest SP steal of the 2021 FA class. But at 34yo and injured and virtually invisible for 2yrs, I simply can't see a $10M deal. I think he is at best $4-5M with bonuses that could reach $12M. Again, LOVE to take a shot! But the Twins best rotation options seem to be a half season or so away. And I don't believe they, or most teams, would gamble that much guaranteed cost on a healthy flier considering current conditions financially. Odorizzi, for example, is a safer but lower ceiling bet. -
Twins Free Agent Targets: Starting Pitchers
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Another tremendous podcast with outstanding thought and evaluation. Sorry I could only listen and not message in. My thoughts: I'm intrigued by Smyly if finally healthy. Injury history has me intrigued, however, as a 5th SP option. His arm talent, again if fully healthy, is there. And further removed from past injury makes him look all that much better. BUT, can he replicate 2020 results over a full season? That's why I view him as a 5th SP idea. And with payroll considerations, $4M with other young arms available and maybe other fliers may not make a fit with the Twins. Gausman is one of those guys I always seem to forget about, though I recall some momentum for him here on TD over the last couple of seasons. I think he could be an ideal choice at 29yo for a multi-year deal, especially with Pineda only signed for one more. Not convinced the $10M is right as I'm still expecting bargains to abound. But he could be a bargain at that rate. Robbie Ray HAS to deserve some extra love just because he's LH! I don't believe a staring staff is defined by having a quality LH option, but it sure is nice to have that option in your rotation! While there are a few pluses and minuses here and there, Ray and Gausman have almost identical career numbers across the board! And they are the same age. My choice? Does it matter? The FO and Johnson know what they know and see what they see. I'd be happy with either of these two, but I would LOVE to see a quality LHSP option in the rotation so I'd like to see Ray as a choice here. It's the Stoman vs Odorizzi debate where I get confused. Stoman has been connected to the Twins for some time now. And I wouldn't have a problem with his signing. But he and Odorizzi...as I posted in a different thread previously... are VERY similar to one another. They are only 1yr apart age wise. And if you insist on using WAR, Stoman has a slight advantage. But virtually EVERYTHING in their career numbers mirror one another from ERA to WHIP to BB/SO numbers. There is little separation between any of their numbers, except Oddo does have a higher K rate. I have to lol a bit at the OP comment, sorry Seth, that Stoman is an "innings eater". He has averaged about 1 more out per over Odorizzi in their career. Just don't see how Oddo is limited as an IP per start pitcher but Stoman is an innings eater. Somehow, someway, in a mystery payroll for 2021, the Twins need to add at least one more quality arm to the rotation. This could happen via trade. And the trade with the Marlins OP is very, very interesting. The idea that so many seem to be down on Odorizzi is surprising to me. And I will absolutely bow to the Twins management to make the final determination. But seems to me Oddo, Stoman, Gausman and Ray are all excellent choices to compete with Pineda for the 3/4 spot in the rotation for 2021. My hope is, of course, they will pick the RIGHT ONE, and sign them for more than 1yr. Despite unknown financial situations, it seems to me any of these 4 could be great additions and may well appreciate some sort of financial security. And it would seem all 4 could be had for $10M TOPS for a 1yr. I'd like to hope the RIGHT ONE might consider the security of a reasonable 2-3yr deal.- 12 replies
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- mike minor
- trevor bauer
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Twins Claim RHP Ian Gibaut, LHP Brandon Waddell
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To be fair, May isn't gone yet, despite being a FA. There are those who believe some team will offer him 2-3yrs at $5-6M per and he will be gone. And it only takes one team to like him that much for it to happen. But we are already seeing quality ML players being let go despite very reasonable $ numbers. I have reasonable hope and expectation...IMHO...that May's best offer will come in around $4M per. As much as I like him and want him back, as much as I believe at 31yo he has anotherlevel in him with just a bit more consistency, he's not a BIG TIME, PROVEN fireman, much less a closer. I think is a very good chance be comes back to the Twins still. As to your comment about Clippard, I'm sorry but I think you are very wrong in your statement about him. He is a strange enigma as a RP. He seems to have built a career of bouncing around the league on short term and reasonable contracts, but has put up very consistent numbers most of his career. In fact, his career numbers are borderline sparkling. But he's never really been the high velocity 9th inning guy who grabs the headlines. All he does is perform. I ABSOLUTELY want him back for around $3M per. -
Twins Claim RHP Ian Gibaut, LHP Brandon Waddell
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think "regression" is the operative word here. I'm not sure I expect Wisler to put up the same numbers over a full season. If he threw 50-60 innings in 2021, with 2020 numbers guy would be an All Star. But the former top prospect is still relatively young for a RP and seemed to find real life with the Twins. Only partially in jest, I have commented previously, that he might be a young Romo. A guy who brings something very different and something very effective. Regression of some sort would be expected, but he could still prove to be very useful as well as effective. I'm less certain about Thielbar. He absolutely re-invented himself. I'm still surprised Detroit didn't keep him. And again, I'd expect regression as his 2020 numbers were just outstanding. But I'm not sure he won't still be useful going forward. But I have less belief/faith in him than Wisler. -
Twins Free Agent Targets: Outfield and DH
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I regret I wasn't able to watch live, but I listened twice, lol. The jist of what I heard is what I believe; without Cruz or similar type of bat, there is no reason for a DH only player. Now, 15 teams only, and some of them with a DH on hand, and some teams that will absolutely not spent $ on a 41yo DH...no matter how tempting...Cruz's market is not large, especially post 2020 financial implications. The smart move is a 1yr deal for $12M with the Twins and an option for less in 2022 that triggers with incentives around 120-130 games or an AB scenario. Possibly with a nice buyout. And if he performs well enough to warrant the 2nd year, then you are happy and hopeful and talking about a 1yr deal. And there is no such thing as a bad 1yr deal, right? You just can't lose BOTH Cruz and Rosario in a single year and trust in rookies only, no matter talent and potential. So again, everything just screams for a workable contract for Cruz back for at least one more season. Brantley or Bradley make sense. They make almost too much sense. And contract wise, either replaces Rosario and Cruz financially. But even in a depressed market, do we spend high $ for 3yrs for another player after signing Donaldson? Are we handcuffing ourselves financially too much the next few years? With or without Cruz, the only guy mentioned that makes sense is Pillar. He SO way too much. He is not great as a hitter. But he could be a perfect option as a decent hitter with power and speed as a great glove 4th OF who can cover for Buxton as well. He fits with Kepler, Kirilloff and Larnach. He also fits with Rooker because of his CF ability and depending how the roster turns out. Remember, we don't know how big the roster will be, much less a loss of both Cruz AND Rosario and trusting on top young talent. He should come relatively cheap. He fits. He can play for a contending team. I LIKE Cave and Wade for different reasons. But there is room to improve on both. And Pillar brings something different from each to build the 2021 roster. I think he's a perfect fit as a 4th OF who plays a lot for $2-3M. I'd do that in a heartbeat. -
I'm old enough and smart enough to know a few things and have a few connections in my life to have access to knowledge that few people do. The first is that Nicholas Tesla, and his associates, have knowledge for unlimited power potential that has been subterfuged by political power and and that an unknown and burried author by the name of Walter Olacandor has found a formula that equates to proven WS success in baseball. Media and MLB ownership has suppressed this research for decades since attempted publication in 1973. And Walter has spent the remaining years of his life working for TMZ and stringing together mad networks or string and and printed articles in his attic like a Hollywood writer working on the next Morgan Freeman thriller. I'm told he is dis-barred from the writers guild. But dark web research has informed me that his original thesis for a WS championship is based on a team that hits better and pitches better than the other team. So let us let fun and sarcasm lie and die there. The Twins have no curse the same way the Cubs and Bo-Sox had no curse. No matter how the WS turns out, it will remain an amazing diconomy how the wealthy battle the frugal. And our Twins remain somewhere in the middle of this battle of have and have not. I have no answers to payroll, or how to slay the beast. Of course, despite their payroll, the Dogers haven't had the answer since '88. But I DO BELIEVE in trying to build the best and deepest team you can. That is where you get your chance. 2020 didn't offer up the chance we hoped for. The FO has already stated they are looking to tweak some things. And no question $ play a part. But they do for everyone. But to blow things up and put on dark glasses is ridiculous. There is no secret formula. There is only building the best and most competitive team you can.