Hosken Bombo Disco

All these things did change, when this front office took over. And therein lies the problem?

Instead of a simple counting of players (dressed up in beautiful prose), I would like to see an analysis of expected value lost. I would argue that the Mets have lost more expected contribution between DeGrom and Scherzer’s injuries than that whole group of Twins pitchers combined. Just as @Yawn Gardenhose mentioned, the Twins had gotten to first place without Mahle. I think it’s more accurate to say that Mahle’s injury cost them future value from their farm system and not from their rotation. (Pitching rotations are alive and well across MLB, by the way, after some flirting with the opener/primary model a few years ago.) It’s also pretty apparent to me that the White Sox have lost more expected value from injury, than the Twins.

It might be too much housecleaning that got us into this mess….. ? This was the top farm system 8 or 9 years ago. We needed a new team who would come in and gently usher it to the World Series and not do stuff like put Sano in right field. It started well enough in 2017, lots of people liked the 2018 trades at the deadline (not me), and 2019 was 2019. somewhere in there, it all went awry.

I will ask again in another thread later, so no need to answer right away, but in my opinion a better analysis would start with something like how much WAR was the team projecting for a player, and how much time (and therefore how much WAR) was then lost to injury. in other words, Sonny Gray had a trip to the IL if I recall. How much contribution were the Twins expecting from Gray this year, and how much did they lose on account of that IL stint? Going into the season, how much contribution were the Twins expecting from Maeda? From Dobnak? From Paddack? From Mahle? I could argue that, combining all four of those pitchers, they were expecting zero contribution, nothing, from any of them. I could argue that they were expecting some positive contribution from Ober and Alcala. Joe Ryan had a stint on the Covid IL— that would count for a little. We’re they expecting anything from Coloume? How does this compare to what the White Sox were expecting from Lance Lynn or Garret Crochet, who were hurt? That said, I agree injuries were a part of why Twins pitching suffered and I’ll tentatively buy the argument that the Twins lost more in pitching than the Sox. For offense, m I’d say the White Sox lost more, much more, production from position players than the Twins. But I’ll keep my mind open if a good analysis shows otherwise. Just something to think about and an idea for a deeper analysis than just listing a count of players. @Cody Christie @Seth Stohs @John Bonnes

Lewis is maybe the one truly unlucky unexpected injury that stands out to me. I might actually take the trio of Gray, Bundy, Ryan over Mahle, Maeda, and Paddack, but that’s just me. The hurt group seems slightly better but either group seems above average, at best. Berrios would improve either set, or heaven forbid, a big free agent signing. As other posters have mentioned, let’s see the comparison with Chicago and other teams, and expected production lost, not just a count of players. @Cody Christie would that be something you would be up for doing? An in-depth comparison with other post-season hopefuls?

After today, and Monday’s day off, my understanding is that the rotations sets up: Tues: Ryan Wed: Gray Thurs: Bundy then the Cleveland series: Fri: Archer? Saturday doubleheader: some combination of Winder, Varland, and Ober returns? Then Sunday and Monday turns back over to Ryan and Gray to wrap up with Cleveland. This is baseball, so we know that “funnier things have happened,” but the Twins just can’t afford to lose any more ground at this point.

FYI Derek Falvey will be interviewed by Cory Provus on Inside Twins today at 12 noon, if you are driving at that time or looking for something to have on until Vikings kickof— I mean, Twins first pitch

Good comment. Signing Correa raised fan expectations for this team to make a postseason run, as it should have. Expecting Buxton to remain healthy to the end seems misguided in hindsight. What should fans expect, going forward? What will be Dave St. Peter’s sales pitch to the season ticket holders for 2023? I am not one, but I look forward to hearing what that is.

And if this thing you say is great roster management does not happen, does it become great roster management in the other direction, then?

Jorge Polanco is eligible to come off the IL today. I’ve been hearing for what seems like weeks that Trevor Larnach is doing baseball activities at full speed and is near ready, but then, where is he? They demote Louie Varland after Varland’s start in New York, even though his turn was to come up against KC at home on Tuesday. (Demote the local kid after a good debut and when he’s lined up to make his second start at home—questionable decision-making at best.) Max Kepler just kind of lingers around in the dugout, at least those are the camera shots that I see, and then enters the game to take a half-hearted at bat now and then. Byron Buxton has vanished, despite explicit efforts to monitor his health and manage his load so that he would not vanish. Gilberto Celestino, Buxton’s replacement, makes more mistakes than… I don’t know. Sonny Gray takes the mound every fifth game, though I still chuckle that they traded their first round pick for him. The Taylor Rogers trade was a bust. Duffey probably should have been traded instead. Process, or something. We all have our own storylines that we notice; those are some of mine. But there are players to be excited about. Jhoan Duran’s shoulder has held up. Caleb Thielbar has been great—huge strikeout of Stanton Thursday. Bundy and Archer have frankly done better than expected, in my opinion. Arraez and Miranda have been good—but even those two guys were inherited from the previous Ryan regime. if the Twins find a way to win this division, it will be because of those players above and Correa. A few more gritty pitching performances will also be needed. I think a lot of us are keeping our expectations very, very low, but hope to be surprised. Those of us who visit this site have enough fan equity that we can come back and reclaim our rightful seat aboard the bandwagon and go 100% in for this team in the postseason, should the Twins surprise us and pull it out.

ah well. “Twins rally from third place to win Central” would be a nice headline for the fans

Jermaine Palacios in the on deck circle to pinch hit for Caleb Hamilton #SeptemberBaseball

I read that as either ‘class’ move, or ‘blasé’ move

White Sox score 5 in top of ninth to win 5-3 in Oakland.

Also just checked back in, and, interesting.,,,

Behind third, and third baseman retrieved it?

Me too - both terms

Ope! Everyone come back - Guardians are letting the Twins back in it

Ah so now the queen jokes are ok lol ?

Exhausted and defeated — and this was with the days off and load management stuff built in to specifically prevent it.

It’s bizarre. It’s like they thought they could reinvent starting pitching.

Welp, with this one looking like it’s in the books, let’s do some scoreboard watching..

I’m only on the outside looking in, but Falvey and Levine seem to have completely different personalities approaches and communication styles. I have no idea which one is pulling the strings, but if it’s Falvey, I wouldn’t mind seeing Levine actually in charge for a year or two.

I’m rooting for the players, I just don’t think the players are good enough

Imagine where this team would be with solid pitching. At least a half dozen games up in the standings and looking to put away Cleveland for good these next 8 of 11 games. The last two series against Chicago would be a mere formality, letting starters work shorter starts, letting some callups pitch from the pen, and setting up the postseason rotation. Or maybe none of that, but instead they would be playing to win to overtake the Yankees for second best record. I don't understand the need to sugar coat every single bad thing this team is doing, but then again, you did get my mouse click like everyone elses.